Tag Archives: 百度

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

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I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

 

Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

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At first glance, video sharing site Youku’s (NYSE: YOKU) new announcement regarding the creation of a new video series together with Dutch electronics giant Philips (Amsterdam: PHG) looks like little more than PR, which led me to pay little attention when it landed in my email box. (company announcement) But closer inspection reveals a more innovative tie-up, which has Philips essentially paying for the creation of an exclusive new video series for Youku in exchange for sponsorship rights, much the way advertisers pay for traditional TV series with their advertising dollars. According to Youku, the first episode of the series, about a young designer trying to win back his girlfriend from a wealthy man, was viewed 2 million times in its first 24 hours — numbers that would make most TV channels envious. While I’m still not completely convinced about Youku’s long-term viability as a stand-alone online video provider, initiatives like this, which are costing it nothing and bringing in millions of viewers, look like a smart formula for success as the money-losing company seeks ways to turn a profit. This latest effort follows another Youku initiative back in June, when it became China’s first big portal to sign a licensing deal with a major Hollywood studio, in this case offering content from Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) to its premium subscribers. (pervious posting) These kind of initiatives are exactly the kind of thing that Youku and video- and music-sharing rivals like Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), Xunlei and even Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) need to be doing in order to ensure their long-term viability. Recent talk that Youku may be in talks with for an equity tie-up with China Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) (previous post) are making this company look like an even stronger bet to maintain its position as China’s leading online video site, and potentially even a profitable one in the near future!

Bottom line: Youku’s foray into sponsored video series looks like a good move with strong future potential as it weans itself from pirated content.

乍看起来，中国视频分享网站优酷(YOKU.N)与荷兰电子厂商飞利浦(PHG.AS)联合出品系列网络电影的新项目不过是公司公关而已，所以一开始邮箱里出现这条消息时，我并未在意。但是进一步的观察发现，其实这一合作还有着非常创新的一面：飞利浦其实通过出资为优酷创作独家网络电影，以换取赞助权。据优酷介绍，系列电影第一支短片《爱有多久》首映24小时内，点播量高达200万，这一数字足以让多数电视频道感到眼红。短片讲述一名年轻设计师如何从一名富翁手中赢回自己的女朋友。虽然我对优酷能否长期扮演在线视频提供者的角色还存有质疑，但此类创意举措，用不着优酷花钱，还能吸引数以百万计的观众，看起来像是优酷寻求扭亏为盈的“巧妙配方”。此前，优酷6月份宣布与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)合作，由优酷通过视频付费点播服务，向高端用户提供450部华纳影片，并成为第一家赢得好莱坞主流片商授权的中国大型门户网站。此类做法正是优酷、土豆(TUDO.O)、迅雷，甚至百度(BIDU.O)等类音乐与视频分享网站需要去做的事情，因为这样可以保证他们的长久生命力。而且最近还有传言称优酷可能正在与腾讯(0700.HK)洽谈股权合作事宜，似乎意味着优酷保持国内在线视频网站领头羊的机率更高，甚至有可能近期扭亏为盈。

一句话：优酷涉足有赞助的网络电影项目看似是明智之举，未来颇为看好，有助于其摆脱盗版内容。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

◙ Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

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The central government, unwilling to directly tackle Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a monopoly despite its dominant position in the online search market, is instead attacking the company on several smaller fronts in a bid to curtail its influence. In one of two major developments, Chinese media are reporting that the telecoms regulator is preparing new online search regulations that would force all search engines to clearly state which of their results are paid and which are organic. (English article) Baidu currently mixes both types of results together, a practice many consider misleading, and charges advertisers a premium to have their paid results appear alongside organic results — something global leaders Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) stopped doing long ago after public criticism. The influential China Central Television (CCTV), China’s national broadcaster, has been leading the charge on this front, fanning consumer outrage by broadcasting a series of investigative reports on the issue. (English article) In the second development, another industry regulator has called on all major Web sites to stop offering pirated music, in what again looks like a shot aimed at Baidu, whose popular music swapping service is rife with pirated songs. Baidu last month signed its first-ever deal with threel major music labels to provide legal copies of their songs, but added it had no plans to shut down the more popular site offering pirated titles. (previous post) These latest two government campaigns appear to be Beijing’s attempt to create a more level playing field in the lucrative online search market by attacking two of Baidu’s most popular tactics, both of which are ethically questionable. While such moves may help global leaders like Google and Yahoo, which operate in more transparent fashion, they are unlikely to boost domestic search engines like those operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), which probably also use questionable tactics similar to Baidu’s.

Bottom line: The central government appears to be launching a campaign to rein in monopolistic Baidu, but will need to do more to create a more level playing field in online search.

对于百度(BIDU.O)在中国网络搜索市场上一家独大的局面，政府虽不愿直接开刀，但为限制其影响力，似乎已选择在一些小的方面敲打百度了，就以最近两个较大的事件为例来说明问题。其一，据中国媒体报导，电信监管机构正准备出台在线搜索新规，迫使所有搜索引擎明确列出哪些是付费搜索结果、哪些是自然搜索结果。目前百度是把两种结果混在一起，容易造成误解，这种做法因遭非议，早已被谷歌(GOOG.O)与雅虎(YHOO.O)等弃用。中国中央电视台在炮轰百度问题上打起头阵，针对百度相关问题播报了大量的调查性报导，鼓动公众情绪。 第二例，另一家行业监管机构要求各大网站停止提供盗版音乐，此举看起来又是针对百度，人气很高的百度音乐搜索服务充斥着盗版歌曲。百度上月与三大唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议，为用户提供合法音乐内容，但百度补充说无意关闭人气更高的、提供盗版音乐下载的音乐搜索服务。政府近来这两大举措出击百度两种受欢迎的应用，其意似乎在于为在线搜索市场创造更加平等的竞争环境。此类举措可能让操作较为透明的谷歌与雅虎等全球巨头渔翁得利，但国内搜索引擎，如腾讯(0700.HK)与搜狐(SOHU.O)等，恐怕难得到好处。

一句话：政府似乎开始出招修理一家独大的百度，但要想创造网络搜索市场竞争氛围更加公平，政府还要拿出更多行动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

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Ad spending looks strong in the latest quarterly results of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), Phoenix New Media (Nasdaq: FENG) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), but big questions remain about the future as the portals continue to squeeze their advertisers for more and more money. Thursday saw a flood of earnings come out for major US-listed China firms, providing the perfect time to take a broader look at ad spending that is so crucial to many of these companies’ top and bottom lines. Leading Web portal Sina saw its ad revenues rise 26 percent, while NetEase saw a 16 percent gain and Phoenix ad revenues jumped a whopping 150 percent. (Sina results; NetEase results; Phoenix results) Sina and Phoenix both also said they expect advertising revenue growth to continue at a similar rate in the third quarter. But what’s interesting here is that Phoenix, the only company to provide more color on its ad revenues, said a major portion of its big ad revenue jump came from increased spending by existing advertisers who spent 82 percent more in this year’s second quarter on average versus a year earlier. Leading search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which derives nearly all its revenue from advertisers, made similar comments last month, saying its customers spent 50 percent more in this year’s second quarter versus a year earlier. (previous post) This kind of sharp spending increase by individual customers reflects stiff competition as companies battle for market share, and a growing number of executives who are seeing their costs soar have said the trend is unsustainable. Barring a sudden collapse, which looks unlikely based on forecasts from Sina and Phoenix, the boosted ad spending looks set to continue at least into the third quarter. But I would expect to see a slowdown by the end of the year as fatigue starts to infect spent-out advertisers, followed by an accelerating downturn into 2012.

Bottom line: Results from Sina, NetEase and Phoenix New Media show healthy ad spending will continue through the third quarter, but advertiser fatigue will lead to a slowdown by year end.

新浪<SINA.O>、凤凰新媒体<FENG.N>和网易<NTES.O>最新季度财报显示，广告支出大幅增长，但由於各门户网站为了增加收入，继续努力从广告商身上赚取更多费用，未来仍将面临较大问题。赴美上市的大型中国企业周四纷纷发布财报，为更广泛地审视广告支出创造完美时机。广告支出对许多公司的营收和利润至关重要。今年第二季度，新浪广告收入增长26%，网易和凤凰分别增长16%和150%。新浪和凤凰均称，预计第三季度广告收入将有类似增幅。但有意思的是，凤凰称其广告收入大幅增长，主要归功于现有广告商提高支出，第二季度同比平均增加82%。中国搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>几乎所有收入均来自广告投放，上月也发表过类似评论，称其客户在今年第二季度广告支出同比增加50%。个人客户广告支出大幅增加表明，各公司正加紧争夺市场份额，竞争日益激烈。越来越多的高管注意到成本大幅上涨，称这一势头不可持续。除非出现意外情况，广告支出增长料将持续至第三季度。但我认为，这一增势年底将放缓，广告商支出将初显疲态，2012年广告支出将加速放缓。

一句话：新浪、网易和凤凰新媒体的财报显示，良性广告支出将持续至第三季度，但广告商疲态将导致广告支出年底放缓。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

 

 

Xiu.com Funding Puts Glamor in Online Fashion 服饰类网站前景看好

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Intensifying competition will mean a tough road ahead for broader e-commerce in China, but one area that still looks attractive is apparel, as reflected by a nifty $100 million in new funding for online fashion house Xiu.com. (English article) The tidy amount follows a smaller $20 million funding in March, and this latest round includes such venture capital giants as Warburg Pincus and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. The funding comes less than a month after online footwear seller Yougou.com received a rumored $450 million in funding from a group that included online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), and as another leading online apparel seller, Vancl, gears up for an IPO that should be one of the hottest China offerings in the second half of the year. Apparel is also one of the best selling areas for Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, testifying to the strength of this product category that enjoys strong demand and is relatively less competitive due to higher barriers of entry. By comparison, more general merchandise e-commerce firms like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-backed (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian seem to be locked in an increasingly bloody battle where marketing and distribution costs are markedly higher due to the broader array of products and customers they cater to. Of course, it may only be a matter of time before apparel makers get caught up in their own bloody battle for market share. But unlike general merchandise, these companies can more easily find their own niches due to the wide variety of clothing available, which may buffer them somewhat from cutthroat competition. Either way, the group certainly looks like a strong bet for now, and I would expect Vancl to see strong demand when it finally moves ahead with its IPO after broader market sentiment improves.

Bottom line: A new $100 million funding round for Xiu.com testifies to the strength of online apparel, and bodes well for Vancl’s upcoming IPO.

竞争加剧意味着中国电子商务业前路难一帆风顺，但服饰类领域看似仍具吸引力，时尚购物网走秀网（xiu.com）新一轮融资1亿美元就是例证。走秀网今年3月曾获2,000万美元投资，而本次又获美国华平投资集团（Warburg Pincus）和Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等风投巨头投资。不到一个月前，鞋类销售网优购网（Yougou.com）据传获得4.5亿美元融资，投资方包括网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股（IPO），有望成为下半年最热门的中国上市企业。服饰也是淘宝商城最热销的领域之一，证明此类产品需求强劲，由於进入门槛较高，竞争相对没有那麽激烈。相比之下，销售日用百货的电子商务企业当当网<DANG.N>、京东商城和沃尔玛<WMT.N>投资的1号店似乎陷入激战，由於其产品和消费者范围更广，市场营销和渠道成本也明显更高。当然，服饰类企业激烈争夺市场份额或许也只是早晚的事情。但与一般商品不同，服饰类选择众多，企业更容易找到其小众定位，为其竞争提供了缓冲空间。目前看来，服饰类电子商务前景光明，我认为，市场情绪提振後，当凡客诚品最终进行IPO时，有望获得积极认购。

一句话：走秀网新一轮融资1亿美元证明，网络服饰销售颇具潜力，对凡客诚品即将IPO也是吉兆。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Tudou Name Tossed Around as IPO Looms IPO临近 土豆网新闻多

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I have to say that video sharing site Tudou gets this year’s award for most mentioned company in media reports in the run-up to its bumpy IPO, with new wrinkles in this strange story sprouting up in the media almost daily. After reporting last week the company was in talks to sell part or all of itself to leading online search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), Chinese media went on to say the company was also in talks with leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU), as well as another online video site called LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104). (English article; Chinese article) Meantime, international media reported about the same time late last week that Tudou’s $180 million IPO — which was originally set for late last year but got delayed due to Chairman Gary Wang’s messy divorce — had been fully subscribed, with pricing set for Tuesday and an official trading debut on Wednesday. So, what’s going on here? Clearly Wang is trying to wheel and deal his way to a deal that will give his company the highest valuation possible, and he’s most probably seeing better valuations from a sale of his company than he is for an IPO. Cash-rich Baidu and Youku are most likely offering the best deals, but both of those would almost certainly require Wang to step down as chairman — something he and heads of similar Chinese companies are usually reluctant to do. An IPO would obviously allow Wang to stay on as chairman, and it’s quite possible the company or its bankers are deliberately leaking rumors about acquisitions to the media to stir up investor interest in an otherwise chilly IPO market. If I were a bettor, I would put my money on the IPO going forward, with a 70 percent chance of success. Among the private buyers, Baidu probably stands a better chance than Youku, as the former can offer more money and also the small possibility that Wang can continue to run the business. Stay tuned for an interesting finale to this rocky but colorful IPO later in the week.

Bottom line: Tudou is likely to go ahead with its $180 million IPO, declining lucrative buyout offers as chairman Gary Wang opts for control of the company over cash.

不得不说，土豆网在走向IPO的道路上，算得上是今年中国媒体提及最多的一家企业了，关於土豆的新闻几乎天天不缺。上周媒体报导，百度<BIDU.O>正在洽购土豆，中国媒体现在又称土豆也在与优酷网<YOKU.N>、乐视网<300104.Z>洽谈。同时，国际媒体上周大约同一时间报导，土豆1.8亿美元IPO已经获得足额认购，定价日定於本周二，周三为首个交易日。那麽，到底是什麽情况？显然土豆网董事长兼CEO王微有着自己的算盘，想要按照自己的方式为公司争取最高的估值，而且他可能觉得出售公司的估值比IPO的会更高。百度、优酷最有可能给出好报价，但两家公司几乎一定都会要求王微辞任董事长，这是他与其他很多类似中国企业的负责人都不愿意做的事情。IPO显然可以让王微保住董事长的职位，而且极有可能是土豆自己或帮助其上市的投行故意向媒体透露收购传闻，以激起投资者对公司IPO的兴趣。如果要赌的话，我会把钱压在IPO上，胜算七成。土豆的各家求购者中，百度的机会可能要比优酷大一些，因为百度给的钱可能会更多，而且王微还有很小的机会继续管理公司。土豆曲折离奇而又多姿多彩的IPO本周稍晚如何落幕？大家不妨拭目以待。

一句话：土豆可能会继续推进IPO，拒绝其他企业的收购报价，因为在权、钱衡量中，王微更倾向於掌控公司的控制权。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

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Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.

Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.

互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。

一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

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Finally there’s a bit of news out ther about online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) that I like, with Chinese media reporting the company is in talks to buy Tudou, one of China’s top online video sites. (English article; Chinese article) Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider Baidu a classic one-note samba, relying on search-related advertising for almost 100 percent of its revenue despite numerous failed attempts to diversify into other businesses. (previous post) But in this case, a purchase of Tudou, a relatively successful company in the online video sharing space, would make great sense for both companies and could ultimately help Baidu achieve its evasive goal of deriving profits from something besides search. Tudou is clearly in dire need of cash, based on its determination to go forward with a delayed IPO despite facing the worst market for such offerings since the financial crisis of 2008. (previous post) So from Baidu’s perspective, it could probably take advantage of Tudou’s need for cash and turbulence on Wall Street to buy the company for a very good price. From Tudou’s perspective, Baidu would be an extremely strong partner in two ways. Most importantly, Baidu could tinker with its search results, which it already frequently does, to favor Tudou over other video sharing sites like industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU). In addition, Baidu could also use its industry clout to help Tudou sign favorable licensing deals for legal video, as Beijing pressures China’s Web firms to offer more legitimate content instead of the pirated material they have thrived on for years. Youku made a step in that direction when it signed a deal in June with Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) (previous post), and Baidu itself signed a similar tie-up with major music labels last month. (previous post) If Baidu does reach a deal for Tudou, it will have a bit of work to do, as the company posted a loss of $12 million in the second quarter, triple the $4 million loss for Youku. Baidu Chairman Robin Li could also find it challenging to work with Tudou founder Gary Wang, whose messy divorce held up his company’s IPO which was originally slated for late last year. But Wang’s weak financial position may leave him with little choice than to sell out, with Baidu offering one of the best potential partners.

Bottom line: Baidu could achieve its elusive goal of diversifying beyond its core online search business with a potential purchase of online video sharing site Tudou.

百度(BIDU.O)终于有条合我口味的新闻了。据中国媒体报导，百度正在洽谈收购土豆网。经常浏览我博客的读者们知道，我一直认为百度是只有一个舞步的桑巴，近乎100%的收入依赖于搜索相关的广告，虽然有一些尝试业务多元化的动作，但多是无果而终。但就此案例而言，土豆网是一个运作相对成功的网上视频分享网站，购买它对两家公司都有很大意义，而且最终有可能帮助百度增加营收渠道。土豆如此糟糕时机下仍坚持IPO，明显是急需资金。所以，从百度的角度出发，充分利用土豆的资金需求以及华尔街的震荡，它也许可以用很好的价格买下土豆。再从土豆的角度来看，百度是一个非常强有力的合作夥伴。最重要的是，百度可以对页面搜索结果稍作调整，使土豆的内容相比优酷等竞争对手显示在搜索结果更有利的位置。另外，百度还可利用其行业影响力，帮助土豆签下有利的合法视频许可协议。目前政府正施压中国网络企业提供合法内容，弃用盗版内容。优酷网(YOKU.N)在这一方向上已经迈出了一步，6月份公司与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)签署合作协议。而百度上月也宣布与多家唱片公司联手合作。如果百度确实为土豆达成了类似协议，那麽土豆可能有一些功课要做，因为公司第二季度报告亏损1,200万美元，是优酷的三倍。此外，百度董事长李彦宏也可能会感到与土豆创始人王微共事有些麻烦。要知道土豆网IPO原本定在去年底，正是因为王微复杂的离婚纠纷拖延了IPO时间。但是鉴于土豆网目前财务状况，王微除了出售公司外选择寥寥，而百度正好是最好的潜在合作夥伴之一。

一句话：百度如果收购土豆，可能从单一搜索业务模式逐渐走向多元化。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

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Competition appears to be getting stiff in the Chinese group buying space, with word that Groupon-invested Gaopeng is dumping its paid search spend on both Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they have simply become two expensive. (English article) The reports cite unnamed sources, but if true, the news is significant because it marks the lightest sign of trouble in the vibrant group buying space. It could also be an early warning sign for Baidu, which is trying to squeeze more money out of its advertisers as growth in the new sign-ups for its advertising services slows. (previous post) Regular readers will recall that group buying sites were all the rage among venture capitalists earlier this year, with three sites, Dianping, 55Tuan and Lashou raising $500 million combined, as global leader Groupon also entered the China market by forming Gaopeng together with Tencent (HKEx: 700). 55Tuan became the first company to show signs of trouble when reports emerged earlier this week that at least 3 major investment banks were refusing to underwrite its planned IPO due to accounting concerns. (previous post) This latest report on Gaopeng would seem to reinforce that group buying is not quite as big in China yet as all the hype, with Gaopeng itself only generating a relatively modest 30 million yuan per month in revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two of these group buying sites combine within the next year as competition remains intense. Meantime, Gaopeng’s dumping of Baidu could also be an early warning sign for China’s search leader, which could start to see similar defections as companies balk at paying Baidu’s higher ad rates. Baidu said earlier this week that spending from individual customers grew by more than 50 percent in the second quarter (previous post), and clearly some customers like Gaopeng are not happy with those big increases and are looking for more cost effective ways to advertise.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s dropping of Baidu’s paid search services reflects both intense competition in the group buying space, and also a coming wave of defections by cost-conscious Baidu advertisers.

中国团购行业的竞购看似日益激烈，有传言称，Groupon投资的高朋网因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。报导援引了匿名消息人士的说法，但若真有此事，这则消息可谓重磅，因这意味着中国如火如荼的团购行业初露窘相。这可能也是对百度的一个早期预警，百度正试图向其广告客户收取更高的费用，因其广告业务的新签订单步伐放缓。经常看我博客的读者应该还记得，团购网站今年早些时候可谓风行一时，大众点评网、窝窝团和拉手网三家网站共募得5亿美元风险资金，与此同时，美国团购网站Groupon携手腾讯<0700.HK>成立了高朋网，进军中国市场。窝窝团是首家显露困境的团购网站，本周早些时候有报导称，至少三家国际投行因担心会计问题而拒绝代理其上市业务。这则关於高朋网的最新报导似乎再次说明，团购在中国的发展并非像炒作的那般声势浩大，高朋网一个月的营收也仅有3,000万元。随着竞争的白热化，倘若未来一年内有一两家团购网站合并重组，我将不会感到意外。同时，高朋放弃在百度投放广告也为百度提了个醒儿，面对百度不断上涨的广告费用，很多公司犹豫不决，百度或将开始看到类似的“倒戈”会不断出现。百度本周早些时候表示，第二季度个人客户的广告费用增加逾50%，很明显，高朋网这样的一些客户对百度大幅增加广告费用的举动很不高兴，并正寻求性价比更高的途径进行广告宣传。

一句话：高朋网放弃在百度投放广告不仅反映出团购行业的激烈竞争，而且也说明百度或面临一波广告客户“倒戈”风潮。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ China Groupon Wannabes in Fund-Raising Frenzy 中国团购网站掀起融资狂潮