Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

One has to wonder what exactly is going on behind the scenes with video sharing site Tudou, whose IPO faces stiff headwinds due to despite extremely negative market sentiment towards China companies. Domestic and international media are reporting the money-losing company has set a price range of $28-$30 for its IPO shares, which will give it a relatively modest market value of $820 million, or about a quarter that of chief rival Youku (NYSE: YOKU), which debuted at a much better time  late last year. (Chinese article) Tudou, whose name means potato in Chinese, hopes to raise about $160 million from the offering, an improvement from the $120 million mentioned in some reports earlier in the week, possibly indicating sentiment toward the offering, now set for mid-August, has been positive initially. (English article) Tudou’s stubborn determination to move ahead with this offering, despite facing one of the worst climates for China stocks on Wall Street in recent years, has left many puzzled, myself included. My guess is that the firm is under pressure from its investors to make the offering, which was originally scheduled for late last year but ran into problems due to a messy divorce between Chairman Gary Wang and his now-former wife. The negative sentiment does seem to have quieted somewhat in the last two weeks, and may have even bottomed out following the disastrous pulling of another IPO for video sharing site Xunlei last month (previous post). But with broader market sentiment still weak after resolution of the US debt crisis, and questions still lingering over accounting standards at many US-listed Chinese firms, this hardly seems like the best time to go to market. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tudou’s shares price at or even below the bottom of their range and for the IPO to be delayed once more if the offering’s size slips below $100 million.

Bottom line: Tudou is taking a big risk by making an IPO into the current negative market, and stands a strong chance of having to pull the offering.

眼下中资股在美国股市的形势非常不利，土豆网仍坚持推进上市事宜，这不禁让人感到纳闷。中国和海外媒体报导称，土豆网IPO指导价区间为28-30美元，相当于市值8.2亿美元左右，约为优酷(YOKU.N)的四分之一，不过後者去年底上市的时机比现在好多了。土豆网希望此次招股能筹资1.6亿美元，这比本周一些报导中说的1.2亿要高。眼下是多年来中资股在华尔街最艰难的阶段之一，土豆网仍坚持推进上市事宜，让许多人百思不得其解，其中也包括我。据我推测，土豆网坚持上市可能是迫于来自投资者的压力，因为原本计划去年底就上市，後来由于其首席执行官王微离婚纠纷而拖延。过去两周，市场的负面气氛似乎已减退，甚至有点触底回升的苗头，但整体市场氛围仍偏于疲弱，因美国债务危机刚刚才化解，而市场对许多美国上市中资股的会计标准仍存在疑问，因此怎麽看都不是上市的好时机。如果土豆网IPO价格处于甚至低于指导价区间下限，或者由于筹资规模不足1亿美元而再次推迟上市，我都不会感到意外。

一句话：土豆网在眼下市场氛围中推进上市事宜，实在是冒着很大风险，最後也有可能暂时取消上市。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

◙ Investors Feast on Sun Art 高鑫零售首日挂牌表现抢眼

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动