Tag Archives: 百度

Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

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China Internet bellwether Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) has just announced its latest quarterly results, which continue to show a company with strong growth but a worrisome inability to diversify beyond its core online search business that is showing early signs of slowing. First the good news, which has clearly captured investor attention, with Baidu’s revenue up about 80 percent and profits up an even stronger 90 percent in the second quarter, thanks to surging sales for its online search advertising services. (company announcement) Furthermore, Baidu also forecast its third-quarter revenue will continue to grow in the 75-80 percent range to more than $600 million — second in China’s Internet space behind only sector leader Tencent (HKEx: 700). But those strong numbers also hide the less impressive fact that Baidu still derives 100 percent of its revenue from online marketing related to its core search business, after high-profile initiatives in a number of other areas like micro-blogging and e-commerce all ended in disappointing failures. (previous post) What’s more, its volume of online marketing customers only grew by a modest 17 percent in the second quarter, with its big revenue growth coming on the back of a sharp 50 percent jump in spending per customer. Clearly Baidu is finding ways to squeeze more money out of its customers, but that growth is likely to slow down sharply in the next year as advertisers start to reach their comfort limits over spending too much on a single marketing source, no matter how good the results. When that happens, look for Baidu’s top and bottom line growth to slow sharply — most likely in the next year or two — unless it can find some alternate new sources of growth from some of its other business initiatives.

Bottom line: Despite posting stellar Q2 results, Baidu’s top and bottom line growth will slow sharply in the next 1-2 years as its search business starts to mature and advertisers rein in their spending.

中国互联网巨头百度<BIDU.O>刚刚公布季度财报，显示其保持强劲增长势头，但令人担忧的是，百度仍严重依赖其核心的网上搜索业务，而该领域已呈现放缓苗头。首先，我们得说其强劲财报是个好消息，显然也吸引了投资者的关注。得益於在线搜索广告营收大幅增长，百度第二季营收增约80%，获利更跳升约90%。此外，百度预计第三季营收将保持75-80%的增幅，超过6亿美元，若实现该目标则在中国互联网领域仅次于腾讯<0700.HK>。但这些亮丽的数据掩盖了一个事实：百度所有营收都来自与核心搜索业务有关的网络营销，意味着其在微博和电子商务等领域的尝试均遇挫。值得注意的是，今年第一季其网络营销客户总数仅增加了17%，百度营收增长主要源自客户的平均支出跳增50%。显然，百度成功从客户处掏出了更多的钱，但未来一年其增长率可能大幅放缓，因广告客户将开始不愿意在单一营销渠道上投入太多的资金，不管广告效果有多好。到那时候，除非百度能找到其他新的营收和利润增长渠道，否则其营收和利润增长会急剧减速，这很可能在未来一两年就会发生。

一句话：尽管百度第二季财报抢眼，但未来一两年中其营收和利润增长可能大幅放缓，因其核心搜索业务开始趋於成熟，而广告客户将开始控制广告支出。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Flounders Abroad, Wastes Time With Microsoft Tie-Up 百度海外拓展 与微软合作纯属浪费时间

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

◙ Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

 

Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

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Yesterday I wrote that video- and music-sharing site Xunlei’s New York listing plan was fast shrinking, and today it looks like it’s disappeared completely, the victim of a perfect storm of market- and company-related factors. In a tersely worded statement, Xunlei said simply that it had delayed the offering “due to market conditions”. (company announcement) The offering’s downfall came swiftly, and marks a stunning turnaround for a company that just over a month ago said that it hoped to raise up to $200 million. (previous post) It already boasted Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) as previous backers, and went on to add News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) media mogul Rupert Murdoch to the list, though that backing may have lost some importance in light of the current scandal surrounding Murdoch’s newspapers in the UK. But then shaky accounting practices at Chinese companies became a major concern in the market over the last month, and Xunlei’s own confession that weak accounting practices could constitute an investor risk did little to help its case. Add to that a lawsuit by seven major global record labels over music piracy (previous post), and the offering quickly shrank by more than half, from the previous $200 million to about $75, by the time  Xunlei finally decided to scrap the deal, at least for now. The company is likely to relaunch this offering when market sentiment improves, and would be well advised to clean up its accounting books and the content traded on its site before it makes such an attempt. Of course, those kind of clean-ups could be costly — wiping out substantial amounts of revenue and significantly shrinking the company’s prospects. Still, I would expect to see Xunlei return to market in the next 2-3 months, this time in a much lower-key offering and probably seeking a much lower valuation than it previously hoped for.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s withdrawal of it IPO reflects both company and market issues, but it is likely to make a second, more low-key, lower-valued bid in the next 2-3 months.

昨天，我写了一篇关於视频和音乐分享网站迅雷纽约上市计划迅速缩水的文章，而今天，迅雷看似将彻底无限期推迟IPO，成为市场和公司因素“完美风暴”的受害者。迅雷在一份简要声明中称，鉴於目前的市场情况，该公司决定推迟上市时间。迅雷IPO急转直下，而一个月前该公司还表示，希望融资规模能达到2亿美元。迅雷曾宣称，其支持者包括百度<BIDU.O>、谷歌<GOOG. O>及新闻集团<NWSA.O>媒体大亨默多克，鉴於默多克因窃听丑闻缠身，这种支持似乎已不那麽重要了。过去一个月来，中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻成为市场的主要关注点，而迅雷承认，会计问题或构成投资者风险对其亦无益。此外，全球七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权。该公司IPO规模迅速缩水逾一半，从先前的2亿美元降至迅雷最终决定暂停IPO计划时的7,500万美元左右。  如果市况转好，迅雷或将重启IPO，并可能会被建议提前清理会计账本和网站内容。当然，这种清理行动成本可能很高，会使其营收大幅减少，并导致公司前景大打折扣。不过，我预计迅雷未来两三个月将重归IPO轨道，届时迅雷料将更为低调上市，并可能大幅下调融资规模预期。

一句话：迅雷暂停IPO计划是出於公司和市场原因，但未来两三个月，该公司很可能会再次筹备上市，但将更低调，融资规模更小。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

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E-commerce in China is hot right now and apparel seems to be the latest hot area based on the latest deal involving online footwear seller Yougou. News on the investment is a bit conflicting, but consensus seems to be that Yougou has received hundreds of millions of US dollars in a new round of funding, and some are specifying the amount is around $450 million, with investors including Hong Kong-listed footwear distributor Belle International (HKEx: 1880) and Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). (English article; Chinese article) I haven’t been a big fan of Baidu’s e-commerce initiatives in the past, most notably its failed online store You’a, but this one certainly looks like it could have some potential with both a big Internet name behind it in the form of Baidu itself and a big apparel manufacturer and retailer in the form of Belle. This latest investment comes amid a recent flurry of activity in the e-commerce sector that points to its strong growth potential. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) bought into online retailer Yihaodian in May (previous post), and leading online apparel seller Vancl is reportedly in the process of an IPO that many believe will do well despite weak investor sentiment toward Chinese companies in general. Leading Web commerce company Alibaba also made  headlines last month when it split its Taobao unit into three pieces, a move aimed at breaking out the more profitable online B2C store business from the more problematic online auction C2C site. (previous post) All these companies are clearly chasing a growing Chinese Internet market that now numbers more than 500 million users, many of whom like to shop online as such transactions become easier and provide more choice and quality guarantees to traditional brick-and-mortar stores. As the market develops, Yougou looks like it’s in a nice mainstream niche and should be an interesting company that, depending on its finances, could make an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line: Online footwear seller Yougou looks like a smart investment for backers Baidu and Belle International, with potential for big growth and an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

电子商务目前在中国非常热门，鉴於鞋类销售网优购网日前获投资，服饰似乎是最新的一个热门领域。相关新闻说法略有些矛盾，但共识是，优购网在新一轮融资中筹到上亿美元，一些报导称，该融资具体金额约为4.5亿美元，投资者包括香港上市的鞋类销售商百丽国际<1880.HK>和网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。一直以来，我并不看好百度的各种电子商务举措，尤其是失败的百度有啊网站，但这次百度和百丽联手投资看似颇具潜力。电子商务领域近期各种动向均表明该领域极具增长潜力。沃尔玛<WMT.N>5月收购中国在线零售商1号店股权，有报导称凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股（IPO），许多人认为，尽管对中国企业投资者情绪普遍偏弱，但凡客诚品IPO或会有良好表现。阿里巴巴集团上月将淘宝网分拆为三家独立公司，意在将盈利的B2C业务同问题重重的C2C业务分离。上述公司显然都加紧在中国互联网市场发展步伐，中国网络用户目前已突破5亿，许多人喜欢网上购物，因为交易更容易，选择更多，而且有质量保证。随着网购市场的发展，优购网看似发展方向不错，根据其财务状况，公司或会在未来两三年上市。

一句话：优购网增长潜力巨大，并有望在未来两三年上市，百度和百丽投资优购网似乎是明智之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ 360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？

Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

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What once looked like one of the year’s hottest China IPOs, that of video and music sharing site Xunlei, is rapidly looking like one of the biggest failures, the victim to negative publicity about both the company itself and questionable accounting practices of Chinese firms in general. Chinese media are reporting that Xunlei has lowered the price range for its offering, originally set for Wednesday in the US but now moved to Thursday, to $12-$14 per share from a previous $14-$16 due to weak demand. (Chinese article) At that new range, it would raise around $78 million, far less than the $100-plus million it was originally targeting. So what happened on the road to market to derail such a once-promising company, whose backers include local and global search leaders Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)? At the company level, Chinese media reports that seven major record labels, including Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) and Warner Music (NYSE: WMG) are suing Xunlei for 20.5 million yuan surely isn’t good. (Chinese article) That figure translates to a relatively small $3 million. but the bigger picture is that China is pushing its major Web sites to rid themselves of pirated music and video, as evidenced by big content deals between the major global media companies and leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Baidu over the last two weeks. Xunlei has much less resources than these two sector leaders, and investors are probably scared that a clean-up of pirated material from the site could lead to a big drop in traffic. From a broader perspective, the IPO is coming to market as sentiment toward Chinese companies has chilled in recent weeks over a recent series of accounting scandals that have undermined investor confidence. With all that going against it, Xunlei is facing strong headwinds as it prepares to join the ranks of US-listed China firms.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s upcoming IPO will struggle out of the gate, and is likely to fall in its New York trading debut amid weak sentiment and a major lawsuit against it.

视频和音乐分享网站迅雷IPO原本是中国今年最热门的IPO之一，受该公司负面报导和中国赴美企业会计丑闻影响，迅雷IPO看似将迅速成为最大败笔之一。中国媒体报导称，由於认购情况不佳，迅雷已将发行价区间从之前的14-16美元下调至12-14美元，并将IPO时间从周三推迟至周四。按照新的发行价区间计算，其融资额将降至7,800万美元左右，远远低於原先上亿美元的目标。迅雷上市进程中到底发生了什麽，致使这样一个曾前途无量、获百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG. O>支持的公司陷入当前困境？从公司层面上来看，中国媒体报导称，索尼音乐<6758.T>和华纳音乐<WMG.N>等七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权，索赔2,050万元，此事自然对迅雷影响不好。索赔金额换算一下不过300万美元，但该事件的大背景是，中国正敦促国内各大网站清除盗版音乐和视频，优酷<YOKU.N>和百度在过去两周分别与大型全球媒体公司签署内容协议即是例证。迅雷的资源远远少於优酷和百度，投资者或担忧，清除盗版内容，或导致其访问量大幅下降。从更广泛的角度来看，中国赴美企业近期系列会计丑闻重挫投资者信心，迅雷IPO适逢市况不佳之时。综上所有不利因素，迅雷赴美上市将面临强劲阻力。

一句话：迅雷赴美IPO路途多舛，由於市况不佳，并遭大唱片公司侵权起诉，迅雷纽约首秀或将破发。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China, US Move to Ease Confidence Crisis 中美合作解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

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I have to congratulate Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) for finally doing the right thing, or at least taking a step in the right direction, by signing a deal with 3 major record labels, Universal, Warner (NYSE: WMG) and Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) that will see it do the once unthinkable and actually pay for copyright protected music. (company announcement) Of course there’s a bit of irony here, as Baidu previously said it will continue to offer pirated copies of music from those three labels and others via its highly popular free music swapping service, which has been criticized for years for allowing the illegal sharing of copyrighted music. Baidu’s move comes just weeks after leading video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) announced a similar tie-up to offer legal films and TV shows from Warner’s library to its premium customers. (previous post) I’ll be a bit cynical here and note that Baidu went for years without seeming to care about copyright protection before finally becoming “enlightened”, and have no doubt that its change of heart is coming at least in part due to heavy pressure from regulators who are trying to stamp out China’s rampant piracy. While it’s one thing for a little old lady from the countryside to sell pirated DVDs from a cart on the side of the street, it’s quite an embarrassment for Beijing when many of its top Internet companies like Baidu also engage in such practices, and clearly we’re going to see a move by major Net firms to slowly phase out their sites that encourage copyright infringement over the next few years. As that happens, look for more deals like the one just announced by Baidu, and also look for the company and its peers to suffer a bit when they finally close down their popular but illegal song- and video-swapping services.

Bottom line: Baidu’s slow embrace of copyright protection marks the beginning of a cleanup of pirated material on China’s Internet, which will benefit content providers but hurt Web firms.

百度与环球唱片、华纳唱片<WMG.N>、索尼音乐<6758.T>三大音乐唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议。我必须要为百度<BIDU.O>这一正确之举或至少向正确方向迈进了一步的行动而表示祝贺。该协议将使百度要为使用受版权保护的音乐付费。当然，有点儿讽刺的是，百度之前曾表示，会通过其非常受欢迎的免费音乐交换服务继续提供盗版音乐。免费音乐交换服务多年来因允许非法分享正版音乐而备受抨击。几个星期前，优酷<YOKU.N>宣布要向其优质客户提供来自华纳的电影和电视节目。我要在这稍微尖刻一点：百度多年来都好像不在乎版权保护问题，直到最近才突然“恍然大悟”，而毫无疑问的是，这部分是因为百度受到了来自监管者的强大压力。中国监管机构正努力打击盗版。农村老妇在街边卖盗版碟也就罢了，很多像百度这样的顶级互联网公司居然也这麽做，对於中国政府来说确实不怎麽好看。未来几年，我们肯定会看到，大型网络公司会逐渐关闭其涉嫌侵犯版权的网站。若果真如此，预计还会有很多像百度刚刚宣布的那种协议的出现，而当这些非法的音乐和视频服务被关闭後，相关公司应该会感受到一些痛楚。

一句话：百度最终签署正版音乐使用协议，说明清除中国互联网上的侵权内容正逐渐开始，这将使内容提供商受益，而使网络公司受伤。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Flounders Abroad, Wastes Time With Microsoft Tie-Up 百度海外拓展 与微软合作纯属浪费时间

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Baidu Shake-Up Underscores Instability, Frustration 百度重组表明公司高层动荡及新产品受挫