Bottom line: New signals indicate Beijing plans to move aggressively to prevent solar panel makers from adding unneeded new capacity to help their local governments meet economic growth targets.
MIIT limits solar panel expansion
A new low-key announcement from Beijing is hinting at a quiet struggle taking place behind the scenes in China’s promising but embattled solar panel sector, with the regulator saying it will stop the building of most new manufacturing capacity. On one side of this struggle are local government officials, who may be encouraging solar panel makers in their areas to add capacity that will benefit their local economy but is the last thing the industry needs. On the other side of the battle is Beijing, which is trying to show the world it doesn’t unfairly subsidize its solar panel sector as it also tries to rationalize a bloated domestic industry that is stifling global development. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A new second wave of consolidation is likely to occur in China’s solar panel sector later this year, with money-losing companies like Yingli and ReneSola as the most likely acquisition targets.
New clouds loom over solar sector
Looming signs of new trouble are brewing in the solar panel sector, with shares of Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) taking a bath after the company reported widening losses and slowing revenue growth. The 15 percent sell-off saw Yingli’s shares re-approach an all-time low from just 2 and a half years ago, as the company joined a small but growing club of US-listed solar panel makers whose shares now trade in the $1-2 range.
Yingli’s announcement makes it the last of China’s major solar panel makers to report their fourth-quarter results, painting a picture that hints of more consolidation on the way for a sector that has already undergone a painful restructuring over the last 2 years. Two camps are emerging: One that is profitable, including names like Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and Trina (NYSE: TSL); and one that is losing money, which includes Yingli and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL), which became the charter member of the $1 club when its shares sank below $2 last November. Read Full Post…
The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 26. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.
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Bottom line: A widening investigation into violations of an anti-dumping solar panel settlement between China and the EU is likely to result in punitive sanctions, dealing a blow to the Chinese panel makers.
Solar settlement unravels
What started as some quiet rumblings earlier this week is quickly brewing into a major storm, with word that a landmark settlement between the EU and China a year ago to resolve an anti-dumping dispute over solar panels is quickly unraveling. In this case it’s probably more accurate to say the settlement was between the EU and actual Chinese solar panel makers, rather than an agreement between governments. That’s an important distinction, since Chinese companies are often far more likely to try to undermine such agreements by exploiting loopholes, unlike central governments that are usually a bit more trustworthy. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Complaints of problems from a major solar plant builder reflect the difficulty of new construction in China, and could wreak havoc on the sales and finances of panel makers and their construction partners.
Solar entrepreneur Shi complains of bureaucracy
Two solar energy news items are showing both the attraction and also the frustration that developers are feeling as they try to build new clean-energy power plants to help China wean itself from its dependence on fossil fuels. On the attraction side of the story, the industry has just won a major new backer in the form of insurance giant Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), which is teaming up with panel maker Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) in a new plant-building initiative.
But the frustrations that many plant builders are feeling were on prominent display in a separate report that cited another major developer complaining of the difficulties of new construction. Those kinds of complaints aren’t really new, and are being caused by provincial government interference and other local issues in the many remote locations where new plants are being built. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Emerging details are giving more credibility to LeTV’s new electric car initiative, while solar shares look oversold on plunging oil prices and should rebound later this year.
LeTV soars on new EV details
Mixed signals are coming from China’s green energy sector, where a newly turbocharged LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104) is getting a lift on details about its new electric car initiative that includes ties to a technology supplier of US superstar Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA). But solar panel makers are moving in the opposite direction, with shares of several reaching or approaching all-time lows over concerns that demand will plummet due to low oi prices. I seldom give direct stock buying advice, but in this case I honestly don’t understand the reasons for this sudden plunge and would strongly consider buying some of these shares that seem quite undervalued right now. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The recent plunge in solar stocks is the result of panic selling due to falling oil prices, meaning the shares could rebound sharply once the sell-off subsides.
Falling oil prices cast cloud over solar stocks
US investors were showing signs of new energy indigestion in the shortened trading day after Thanksgiving, dumping stocks of all the major solar panel makers in a messy post-holiday sell-off. With no major news from any of the companies, the driving force behind the sell-off appears to be the recent plunge in oil prices, which hit new 4 years lows late last week after OPEC declined to cut its daily output quotas.
Investors appear to be worrying that falling oil prices will dampen enthusiasm for building new solar plants, since lower oil prices mean solar power will be less competitive with more traditional power sources derived from fossil fuels. The only problem with that logic is that solar power was never competitive with fossil fuels to begin with, meaning solar stocks could be getting punished for no good reason. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China is likely to fall well short of its plan for 35 gigawatts of solar power capacity by the end of next year due to profit-seeking speculation and lack of experience among plant builders and operators.
China struggles to meet solar power targets
I’ve been quite skeptical for a while about China’s ambitious plans to rapidly build up its solar power capacity, arguing that many of the plants being built are more designed to please central planners in Beijing than of real practical use. Now it seems at least one researcher at a major government institute agrees with that view, prompting him to slash his forecasts for new construction this year. That certainly doesn’t look good for big domestic names like Yingli (NYSE: YGE) and Trina (NYSE: TSL), which are hoping to keep their recent positive momentum going with big new demand from plant developers in their home market. Read Full Post…
Lofty targets contained in a new report show that China intends to push ahead with ambitious plans to build up its renewable energy sector. But perhaps the most interesting thing about this new report is word that Beijing finally intends to sharply reduce the inflated state-set fees now paid for solar and wind-produced power, in one of the sharpest indicators that it expects the industry to stop depending on government support and become commercially viable on its own. Such state support through a wide array of measures, which also include export credits and low-interest loans, have become a huge sticking point that has led to a series of trade wars between China and the west. Read Full Post…
Just months after tapping financial markets for nearly $250 million, solar panel maker Trina (NYSE: TSL) has just announced another plan to raise a similar amount as it tries to take advantage of improving sentiment towards its sector. Such fund-raising would have been unthinkable as recently as a year ago, when recovery of the solar panel sector was far from certain following a prolonged downturn. In a relatively positive sign, Trina’s latest fund-raising plan didn’t trigger a major sell-off in its shares, indicating investors are more confident of the company’s and the sector’s future prospects. Read Full Post…
Regular readers will know I’m a bit bearish lately on the solar panel manufacturing sector, largely because I believe its recent rebound is being fueled as much by hype as real business after a prolonged downturn. A new report on some of the sector’s so called “growth engines”, coupled with a separate report on a dispute at one of the top surviving players, are adding fuel to my skepticism that the sector’s recent sharp rebound isn’t really happening. At the very least, the recent reports indicate the rebound isn’t nearly as strong as many are claiming, and solar panel makers and their shares could soon be set for far slower growth than many were hoping for. Read Full Post…
