55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

It seems investors aren’t the only ones getting jittery about Chinese accounting standards in the current crisis of confidence surrounding US-listed China stocks. Domestic media are reporting that up-and-coming group buying site 55tuan, which just two months ago raised $200 million from a group including Goldman Sachs (previous post) is now having to abort its plans for an IPO. But this time, 55tuan is abandoning the plan for a US listing not due to weak market sentiment, but because it was rejected by some of the biggest investment banks, including Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs itself, according to a Chinese report, citing informed sources. (Chinese article) It seems the banks are all concerned about 55tuan’s rapid growth in the last couple of years, which came on the back of a big buying spree that saw it acquire lots of smaller local group buying sites. According to the Chinese report, the investment banks are worried about lax accounting at many of the acquired companies, which could throw much of 55tuan’s own books into question. Clearly the big banks don’t want to be caught with any potential liability from shareholder lawsuits of have to answer to the SEC if they help a company list that later turns out to have crooked books. One of my sources previously told me that similar acquisitions were at the heart of the crisis that hit Longtop Financial, whose own accounting was called into question due to doubts about the books at one or more of its acquired companies. If that’s the case, companies that have grown by acquisition could be especially vulnerable as the current confidence crisis plays out.

Bottom line: Companies like 55tuan, which grew through questionable acquisitions, will find themselves under growing scrutiny in the crisis surrounding US-listed China stocks.

对於中国赴美企业正在经历的信任危机,投资者似乎并不是唯一担心其会计准则的人。国内媒体报导称,团购网“窝窝团”赴美IPO(首次公开募股)计划受阻。该网站两个月前刚从包括高盛那里募集到2亿美元。但据中国媒体引述消息人士的话报导,“窝窝团”此次赴美上市计划受阻并非因市场情绪低迷,而是因遭到瑞士信贷美林、甚至包括高盛等多家国际大投行拒绝。看似各大投行对“窝窝团”过去一两年的飞速发展都有所顾虑。“窝窝团”依靠收购众多当地小型团购网站而迅速发展起来。根据该篇中国媒体的报导,各大投行担心“窝窝团”收购的很多公司可能存在会计问题,而这将会使“窝窝团”的会计问题遭到质疑。如果各投行帮助其上市,最终却发现公司存在会计问题,其必将面临股东诉讼,并需遭受美国证券交易委员会的质询,各投行显然不想面临这种局面。之前曾有消息人士对我说,中国赴美企业会计丑闻中的东南融通就因类似收购而导致其财务状况遭质疑,因其所收购的一个或多个公司存在会计问题。若果真如此,在当前信任危机闹得沸沸扬扬之时,那些靠并购发展的企业可能尤其易受伤。

一句话:那些像“窝窝团”一样通过并购发展的企业会发现自己在此次中国赴美企业会计丑闻中面临着更严格的审查。

Related postings 相关文章:

Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

China Confidence Crisis Separates Wheat from Chaff 中国企业信任危机 对不同公司各有利弊

Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

China seems destined for a big glut in its car-building capacity, with Nissan Motor (Tokyo: 7201) becoming the latest global auto maker to announce a major expansion in the market, with plans to spend $7.8 billion to nearly double its capacity over the next four years. (English article) This latest announcement between Nissan and Chinese partner Dongfeng (HKEx: 489), comes just weeks after Daimler (Frankfurt: DCXGn) announced a 2 billion euro expansion of its plant with Beijing-based BAIC (English article), and follows other similarly super-sized announcements by Ford (NYSE: F) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG). The general tenor seems to be that most companies are planning to nearly double their China capacity over the next four years or so. The only problem is, growth in China’s auto market, now the world’s biggest, is slowing considerably from its turbo charged days of 2009 and 2010, when incentives from Beijing fueled the gains. With those incentives now gone and many cities actually rolling out dis-incentives for new car buying to ease congestion, most analysts are saying to look for annual growth of 10 percent at best over the next few years, and at worst little or no growth and possibly even contraction. So in a best-case scenario, we’d be looking at 40-50 percent growth in total demand over the next 4 years, while capacity will probably double over that period. The only outcome in all of this can be a massive supply glut, which could see the automakers’ China profits quickly evaporate as they are forced to lower prices to sell all those cars. I see a bit of consolidation in the cards, especially among the smaller domestic players without big foreign partners, who will most likely be forced out of business as losses mount. But the broader industry is certain to suffer overall, with China losing a bit of its luster as one of the world’s most profitable car markets.

Bottom line: Nissan’s new plan to nearly double its China capacity is part of a broader trend that will see the country end up with a major supply glut by 2015.

中国似乎是注定了要走向汽车产能大幅过剩之路。日本日产汽车<7201.T>日前加入全球其他大品牌的阵营,宣布在华扩张计划。该公司计划未来四年在华投资78亿美元,推动产能接近翻番。而就在日产与合作夥伴东风<0489.HK>宣布新计划几周前,戴姆勒<DCXGn.DE>与北汽也宣布20亿欧元的在华扩张计划,此前福特<F.N>、大众<VOWG.DE>等均有类似动作。主旨大概是:多数公司计划未来四年左右实现在华产能接近翻番。这里唯一的问题是,相对於2009年与2010年时的突飞猛进,中国车市增长速度现在正在放缓。中国当时的汽车激励政策现已不再推行,而且很多城市为了缓解交通堵塞问题,实际上实行了不鼓励购买新车的政策。为此,大多分析人士预计,未来几年中国车市最快增速为10%,差的话可能增速很低、不会增长或更甚者可能会萎缩。所以在最佳状况下,未来四年汽车总需求增速大约应为40%-50%,而同期产能则可能翻番。最後的结果只能是大幅的供应过剩,很多厂商被迫降价销售,在华利润迅速蒸发。我预计汽车行业将出现整合,尤其是那些缺少海外大牌合作的中国较小汽车厂商,亏损日增很可能最终会迫使这些企业关门大吉。而随着中国作为全球利润最丰厚车市的光环逐渐淡去,整个行业也必将在劫难逃。

一句话:日产的增产计划是随了大品牌在中国车市的产能扩张潮,这一趋势的结果应该是,到2015年中国车市供应过剩。

Related postings 相关文章:

China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹:价格战越来越近?

Cars: Less Restrictions and an Interesting Second-Hand Concept 汽车业:缓慢发展或成常态

VW Motors into South China on Beijing Own-Brand Drive 大众汽车“南方战略”加速

UPS Puts Chengdu on the Global Map

The interior city of Chengdu looks to be the next rising star on China’s tech map, receiving a major nod of recognition from global express delivery leader UPS (NYSE: UPS), which is adding the capital city of Sichuan province to its global express delivery map. (company announcement) UPS cites broader demand from that part of China, which has also seen neighboring cities like Xian and Chongqing grow quickly as China offers strong incentives for companies to set up shop in its relatively underdeveloped western interior. As a longtime tech writer, I’ve been particularly impressed with Chengdu, which seems to have a strong ability to attract some of the world’s top-tier technology names to the city with its abundance of college graduates, good transport networks and of course its tasty Sichuan food. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) was one of the earliest players in the city when it set up a chip manufacturing plant there seven years ago, and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) opened up shop in the city last year when it took over a plant from SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI). Most major PC players have also opened plants there in the last 2-3 years, including both Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), (previous post) along with Taiwanese contract manufacturer Hon Hai (Taipei: 2317). From an investor perspective, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to start seeing some interesting and dynamic tech firms coming out of this city, which offers not only a strong technology ecosystem, but also low costs and strong links to the rest of the world, which just got a little stronger with the addition of the city to UPS’ global map.

Bottom line: Look for interesting tech plays to emerge from Chengdu in the next few years, boosted by strong support from global players like Intel and logistics leader UPS.

Related postings 相关文章:

Intel’s Move Nods to China Gadget Clout, Smells Slightly of Desperation 英特尔人事调动突显中国市场影响力

Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

Diageo’s China Baijiu Bid: Aiming for the Middle 帝亚吉欧瞄准中国中档白酒市场

Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

The accounting confidence crisis continues to take its toll on New York-listed China firms, with some mixed signs coming from the struggling solar sector and a very “shark-like” announcement from a US law firm looking to take advantage of the situation. The China Daily reports the crisis has already claimed Longtop Financial, ShengdaTech and China MediaExpress as victims, all of which have been delisted (English article), and last week two larger firms, AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC) and CDC Software (Nasdaq: CDCS), said they were out of compliance with listing  rules for failing to file annual reports on time — a first step toward potential de-listing. Now a US law firm named Blank Rome has stepped in by generously offering to provide services to some of the more troubled firms, many of which are likely to face shareholder lawsuits due to plunging share prices on investor concerns about shady accounting. (company announcement) Of course, many of the upcoming lawsuits will probably go nowhere, as the firms will quietly de-list and retreat to China where they will be out of reach of the US legal system. Meantiime, there’s another potentially troubling sign from the struggling solar sector, which may be set for its own accounting crisis due to questionable sales, with Canadian Solar’s (Nasdaq: CSIQ) announcement that it’s replacing its CFO. (company announcement) That announcement follows recent resignations of audit committee chairs at LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), (previous post) though one of my sources tells me Canadian Solar’s resignation may be unrelated to accounting issues. Lastly, there’s a small piece of good news in the alternate energy sector from Ming Yang, which says it’s joined a group developing a relatively sizable 48-megawatt wind power project in south China’s Guangdong province. (company announcement) While announcements like this are encouraging and show China is stepping up to help its struggling alternate energy equipment makers, it could end up being too little too late if the sector’s rapid downward spiral doesn’t end soon.

Bottom line: The accounting confidence crisis for US-listed Chinese stocks is still playing out, and will claim more victims, potentially including some alternate energy firms, before the clean-up ends.

会计操作信任危机继续冲击在美国上市的中资股,而近期走势挣扎的太阳能板块释放出好坏参半的讯号。《中国日报》报导称,融通金融盛大科技中国高速频道,已沦为这场信任危机的牺牲品,均已遭摘牌或停牌。此外就在上周,汽车中国国际<AUTC.O>和中华网软件<CDCS.O>称违反了上市公司规章,未及时申报年度报告,而这或许成为走向摘牌的第一步。现在,有家名为Blank Rome的美国律所提出向一些陷入窘境的中资企业提供服务,这其中许多中资企业因会计操作疑虑导致股价重挫,可能遭股东起诉。当然,许多的官司可能最後无果而终,相关公司将悄然摘牌,退回到中国,美国司法制度可能也就鞭长莫及了。与此同时,太阳能板块传递出一些令人忧心的讯号,该领域或许也迎来一场会计信任危机。Canadian Solar<CSIQ.O>财务长近日辞职,而此前赛维太阳能<LDK.N>、天合光能<TSL.N>审计委员会主席也已辞职。不过有消息人士告诉我,Canadian Solar财务长辞职可能与会计操作无关。不过替代能源行业也有一些好消息,譬如明阳风电加入了广东一48百万瓦风电项目。虽然这类消息令人兴奋,表明中国正加大扶持替代能源设备制造商,但如果该领域快速下行的趋势不赶快结束,政府扶持可能也收效不大。

一句话:美国上市中资股面临的会计操作信任危机仍在继续,可能会有更多的中国企业中招,其中可能包括一些替代能源企业。

Related postings 相关文章:

Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职:昭示问题还在前方

China Confidence Crisis Separates Wheat from Chaff 中国企业信任危机 对不同公司各有利弊

BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

In some ways you have to admire BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), the Warren Buffett-backed car maker, for its ability to stay on message despite a rapid fall from grace that will likely see it post its first quarterly loss in a long time in the second quarter. (previous post) Despite all its setbacks, including a crash that has seen its Hong Kong-listed shares lose about two-thirds of their value from a 52-week high, the company is continuing to focus on its dreams of becoming the world’s first company to  make serious money from electric vehicles, as evidenced by its latest announcement that it is providing the world’s biggest EV fleet to its hometown of Shenzhen. (company announcement) At first glance the numbers look impressive: a new series of agreements have seen BYD provide Shenzhen with a fleet of 200 electric buses and 300 electric taxis. But further reading makes the numbers a little less noteworthy, as it becomes clear that a portion of these vehicles may only stay in use during the upcoming Universiade Games, and also that many pieces of this tie-up were previously announced. I’ve said before that BYD needs to get back to basics and design some good traditional gas-consuming cars that people want to buy if it wants to get back on the right track and return to profitability anytime soon. Its electric vehicle vision may indeed work out in the end, especially with the strong support it’s getting from Shenzhen, though even in this area I would only give it a 50 percent chance of success. But if it doesn’t return to the right track soon, it could soon lose support from Buffett, and could potentially even end up out of the car business completely before its electric dreams ever have time to become reality.

Bottom line: BYD is again showing off its strong support from Shenzhen in achieving its electric car dreams, but it may run out of gas before those dreams have a chance to succeed.

在某种程度上,你不得不对比亚迪<002594.SZ> <1211.HK>坚持不懈的精神表示钦佩,尽管其第二季度很可能出现长时间以来的首次季度亏损。尽管比亚迪遭遇了种种挫折,包括其香港股价较52周高点缩水约三分之二,但公司仍致力於成为世界上首家实现电动车盈利公司的梦想,这也可以从比亚迪刚刚发布的声明中可见一斑,比亚迪近日宣布,已与深圳各大公交运营机构正式签署合同,向其提供新能源汽车租赁服务。乍一看,数字确实可观。比亚迪将提供200辆电动大巴以及300辆电动出租车。但仔细研读後发现这也没什麽大不了的,因为很明显,这些汽车中有部分可能只会在即将到来的大运会期间使用,而且很多相关合作项目之前曾有宣布。我之前曾说过,如果比亚迪想重回正轨并尽快恢复盈利,它需要回到基础的东西上,设计出一些人们愿意购买的高质量传统汽车。比亚迪的电动汽车梦想或许最终会实现,特别是获得了深圳方面的大力支持,不过我认为比亚迪的成功机率只有50%。但如果比亚迪不能尽快回到正轨,它可能很快会失去巴菲特的支持,甚至在其电动汽车梦还未实现之前,便可能被完全淘汰出汽车市场。

一句话:比亚迪再次向公众表明其在实现电动车梦想方面获得了深圳方面的大力支持,但在其梦想有机会实现前,比亚迪或许已经动力不足了。

Related postings 相关文章:

BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪:累了?

China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹:价格战越来越近?

BYD IPO: Selling Into a Skeptical Market 比亚迪IPO 市场疑虑重重

 

Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

What a difference a couple of years makes. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), a tiny player in China as little as two years ago, has suddenly become a new dominant force in both China’s computing and cellphone scene, taking on traditional market leaders Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V.HE) in their respective spaces. The US maker of wildly popular iPhone cellphones and iPad tablet PCs officially surpassed Lenovo in terms of total China sales in the quarter through June (English article), while it also picked up share on Nokia, whose China sales plunged 41 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner (English article). At this point, Apple looks nearly unstoppable in China, with companies scrambling to import more iPads to meet ever-growing demand and the country’s leading mobile carrier, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) on the cusp of signing a landmark deal to offer iPhones in China that will run on its 3G network. The pirates have been making iPhone and iPad look-alikes for a while now, and even retailers are getting in on the action with a recent headline-making knock-off Apple store opening up in southwestern Yunnan province. (English article) Apple’s sudden surge in China, the world’s biggest cellphone market by subscribers and the second biggest PC market, must be coming as a shock to both Lenovo and Nokia, neither of which has strong offerings in the smartphone or tablet PC space to fend off the attack. If Apple continues to surge, which seems likely, look for Nokia and especially Lenovo to see their China business start to weaken in the next 1-2 years as each looks on powerlessly at China’s new fascination with this innovative US tech giant.

Bottom line: Apple’s sudden surge in China will spell headaches in the next 1-2 years for Lenovo and Nokia, which each lack strong offerings to counter popular iPhones and iPads.

真是三十年河东三十年河西!两年前在中国还势单力薄的苹果公司(AAPL.O: 行情)突然间成了中国电脑和手机行业新的主导力量,向传统的市场领头羊联想(0992.HK: 行情)和诺基亚(NOK1V.HE: 行情)分别发起了挑战。截至六月份的第二季度,苹果在华电脑总销量正式超过联想,同时还夺取了诺基亚的市场份额。据市场研究公司Gartner的数据,诺基亚2011年第一季度在中国的销量骤降41%。目前,苹果在中国的发展势如破竹,各大公司竞相争取进口更多的iPad,以满足中国不断增加的需求。中国移动(0941.HK: 行情)(CHL.N: 行情)接近签署一项具有里程碑意义的协议,在华引进使用其3G网络的iPhone手机。而盗版厂商们则一直在生产与iPhone和iPad酷似的电子产品,就连零售商也加入了“山寨”行列,云南昆明的“高仿真”苹果零售店就是典型案例。苹果在中国的突然崛起无疑令联想和诺基亚深为震惊,而後两者在智能手机和平板电脑领域均无强势产品可以进行反击。如果苹果继续高歌奋进,且这一趋势似乎也很有可能,诺基亚,尤其是联想未来1-2年在中国的业务肯定会缩水,因两者面对中国人对苹果产品的迷恋却无能为力。

一句话:苹果在中国的突然崛起会在未来1-2年内让联想和诺基亚头疼不已,因後两者均缺少可以抗衡iPhone和iPad的强势产品。

Related postings 相关文章:

Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……?我不看好

Merck Finds Potent China Partner in Simcere 默克牵手先声药业

US drug giant Merck (NYSE: MRK) has become the latest major pharmaceuticals company to pair up with a Chinese partner, in this case US-listed Simcere Pharmaceutical (NYSE: SCR), in a bid to take advantage of huge new opportunities as China rolls out a new national healthcare safety net. Financial terms of the tie-up aren’t given, but the pair say they will form a joint venture to co-develop new drugs and market existing ones for the China market, initially focusing on cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. (company announcement) The tie-up looks strikingly similar to a joint venture announced earlier this year by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Chinese partner Hisun Pharmaceutical (Shanghai: 600267). (previous post)  Foreign drug giants have been active in China for years now, but these two new tie-ups seem to be more focused on sales and marketing, setting them apart from previous efforts that were mostly focused on using China as a base for cheap manufacturing. Both are aimed at capitalizing on an expected spending bonanza that will see China spend billions of dollars each year to provide basic healthcare to its less affluent majority under an ongoing reform plan. One interesting difference here is that Merck has found its partner in a smaller New York-listed company with market cap of about $600 million, whereas Pfizer’s partner is listed in Shanghai with a larger market cap of around $3.2 billion. I tend to like the smaller, overseas-listed companies like Simcere as they are often more entrepreneurial and adaptable to market conditions. Bigger, Shanghai-listed firms like Hisun tend to have better connections, which are obviously important in this major government-led overhaul of China’s health care system. But they also tend to move more slowly, and their decisions are often based as much or even more on non-economic considerations as they are on what’s best for business. Still, both of these partnerships look good to me in light of China’s health care reform, and investors clearly like the Simcere deal, bidding its stock up nearly 5 percent in Friday trading.

Bottom line: Merck and Simcere should reap strong rewards in China through their new joint venture, capitalizing on major new spending from China’s ongoing healthcare reform.

美国制药大厂默克(MRK.N: 行情)日前与先声药业(SCR.N: 行情)签署合作协议,成为联姻阵营的最新一家大型药企,以在中国进行医改之际,以期抓住这其中蕴含的无限大好机会。双方协议的会计细节没有对外公布,但是两公司表示希望借合资公司为中国市场研发新药,以及推广现有药物,初期将以心血管与代谢性疾病领域为重点。两公司的联姻与今年稍早辉瑞(PFE.N: 行情)与海正药业(600267.SS: 行情)宣布将成立合资企业的做法如出一辙。海外大型药企积极开拓中国市场已有很多年,但这两个案例重点更多是在销售与营销上,与之前主要把中国当成廉价的生产基地的做法不同。按照正在进行的医改计划,中国今後每年都将投入巨资,为国内较不富裕的大多数人提供基本的医疗保障。而两案例都是瞄准了中国巨大的医药开支预期,但一个很有意思的区别在于,默克找到的合作夥伴是一家市值约6亿美元左右的纽约上市企业,夥伴规模相对较小;而辉瑞制药的合作夥伴则是在上海证交所上市的企业,市值约为32亿美元。我比较倾向于较小、海外上市的企业,如先声药业,因为这些企业往往更具闯劲,更能灵活应变市场状况。而较大、上海上市企业,比如海正药业,往往关系纽带较好,对于中国这样一个由政府牵头的医改,其重要性自是不言而喻。但是船大难掉头,运转起来未必那麽灵活,而且企业决策往往要考虑企业利益与非经济因素两个方面,有时後者还要考虑得更多一些。不过,中国医保改革当前,两个联姻我觉得都还不错,投资者显然喜欢先声药业的协议,周五其股价升近5%。

一句话:通过新的合资企业,默克与先声在中国市场应会有丰厚的回报,从中国医保改革新的资金投入中受益。

Related postings 相关文章:

Pfizer Pairs With China Partner to Tap Health Care Reform 辉瑞与海正合作开拓中国医药市场

Shanghai Pharma IPO Looks Like Good Medicine 上海医药IPO似为一剂良药

Fosun Pharma Offers Window to China Healthcare Reform

 

Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

The first signs of a clean-up of some of the smaller US-listed Chinese firms is underway, with two announcing in the last week that they have fallen out of compliance with Nasdaq listing rules due to late filing of annual reports. The pair, AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC) and CDC Software (Nasdaq: CDCS), both issued the same generic statements, each saying it was notified of being out of compliance with Nasdaq rules for failing to file its annual report by the required deadline. (AutoChina announcement; CDC Software announcement) These are two of the bigger US-listed China companies, which is why they’ve made these public announcements, but I’m certain that many smaller companies with market value of less than $1 million have also probably fallen out of compliance for the same reason, namely that no accountant wants to certify their results for fear they contain inaccurate and misleading information. I wouldn’t be surprised if either AutoChina or CDC is ultimately de-listed, and would expect many of the smaller companies to be de-listed as well by this time next year. Meantime, the confidence crisis has claimed yet another victim, this time Shanda’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) already dubious IPO for its Cloudary literature unit, according to Chinese media reports. (Chinese article) Suspension of the Cloudary plan follows the similar pulling of an IPO by video and audio sharing site Xunlei last week, after demand evaporated for the offering. (previous post) Xunlei may come back to market in the next 2-3 months, but don’t expect to see Cloudary, a much less interesting offering, coming back for a listing until next year at earliest.

Bottom line: A clean-up of smaller New York-listed Chinese firms has begun, with many likely to de-list by this time next year due to accounting issues.

华尔街清理一些较小型在美上市中资企业的信号开始浮现。上周两家企业宣布,因未能按时提交年度报告,被警告违反了纳斯达克上市规则。开元汽车(AUTC.O)与中华网软件(CDCS.O)双双发布声明称,因没有在截止日期前按时提交年度报告,被通知违反了纳斯达克规定。他们是在美上市的两家较大中资企业,这也是其发布公开声明的原因。但我肯定还有很多市值不到100万美元的小企业可能也因同样的原因违反规定,也就是说,因害怕报告中含有不准确、误导性信息,没有会计人员愿意为其审计报告结果。如果两家企业最後被摘牌,我也不会感到意外,而且我预计到明年这个时间很多小一些的企业将会被摘牌。同时,又有新企业因信任危机倒霉了。这次是盛大网络(SNDA.O)旗下子公司盛大文学海外,其纽交所IPO进程宣布暂停,而上周迅雷也决定推迟赴美IPO,因认购不足。迅雷未来两三个月内或许会重启IPO进程,但是盛大文学就未必了,最早可能也要等到明年了。

一句话:华尔街对较小中资企业的清理行动已经启动,到明年这个时间或许有很多企业会因会计问题被摘牌。

Related postings 相关文章:

Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职:昭示问题还在前方

China Confidence Crisis Separates Wheat from Chaff 中国企业信任危机 对不同公司各有利弊

 

Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

After saying on several occasions earlier this year that 4G licenses won’t be issued for at least the next 2-3 years, China’s telecoms regulator is subtly shifting its message, no doubt under heavy pressure from China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which would like to see such licenses issued sooner rather than later. Chinese media are now quoting an official from the regulator at an event this week saying that 4G licenses will be awarded when the technology is “mature.” (Chinese article) He then goes on to say how China Mobile has launched expanded trials for its 4G standard, TD-LTE, in six major cities, and that results so far have been promising. I sense a definite shift in this quote from the ministry’s previous stance, in which it indicated it wanted to wait for new 3G systems launched two years ago by the country’s 3 telcos, China Mobile, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), to gain traction before awarding 4G licenses. Industry watchers will know that China Mobile has been rapidly losing share in the 3G market after being forced to use a homegrown wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, that lacks maturity and a wide range of smartphones to make it attractive to most consumers. It has been lobbying hard for the regulator to let it roll out a 4G system, based on more widely used technology, and these latest comments seem to indicate the regulator might issue a 4G license to China Mobile first if it feels TD-LTE is ready for commercialization. If that happens, I could see China Mobile receiving a 4G license in as little as a year from now, which could provide a boon to telecoms equipment makers like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), and could help China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: A subtle shift in comments from the telecoms regulator indicate a softening stance toward the issuance of 4G licenses, paving the way for China Mobile to get one such license in as little as a year.

今年早些时候,中国电信监管部门多次表示,至少在未来2-3年内不会发放4G牌照,但现在其口风出现微妙的变化,无疑是受到中国移动<0941.HK>的压力。该公司希望能早点发放4G牌照。  中国媒体援引监管部门一官员在本周一次活动上的话报导称,4G牌照何时发放取决於技术的成熟度。接着他还介绍了在中国六大城市开展的TD-LTE规模试验,并表示测试效果良好。我从这名官员的发言中察觉到工信部立场与此前相比发生了变化。之前工信部曾表示,希望中国三大移动运营商中国移动、中国联通<CHU.N>和中国电信<CHA.N>推出的3G网络强化後再发放4G牌照。业内观察者将会注意到,因使用中国自己的TD-SCDMA无线网络标准,中移动在中国3G市场的份额正迅速流失。中国移动一直在努力游说工信部,允许其推出4G系统,工信部官员近期言论似乎暗示,如果该部觉得TD-LTE商业化时机成熟,或会首先向中国移动发放4G牌照。如果是这种情况,我认为,中国移动最短在一年内就可拿到4G牌照,这对爱立信<ERICb.ST>、华为中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>和阿尔卡特-朗讯(Alcatel-Lucent)<ALUA.PA>等电信设备制造商将是利好,并可能有助於中国移动夺回中国联通和中国电信抢走的部分市场份额。

一句话:工信部官员口风的微妙转变暗示,该部在4G牌照发放问题上的立场软化,中国移动有望最短在一年内获得4G牌照。

Related postings 相关文章:

Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动:王建宙董事长要退休?

Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

Yesterday I wrote that video- and music-sharing site Xunlei’s New York listing plan was fast shrinking, and today it looks like it’s disappeared completely, the victim of a perfect storm of market- and company-related factors. In a tersely worded statement, Xunlei said simply that it had delayed the offering “due to market conditions”. (company announcement) The offering’s downfall came swiftly, and marks a stunning turnaround for a company that just over a month ago said that it hoped to raise up to $200 million. (previous post) It already boasted Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) as previous backers, and went on to add News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) media mogul Rupert Murdoch to the list, though that backing may have lost some importance in light of the current scandal surrounding Murdoch’s newspapers in the UK. But then shaky accounting practices at Chinese companies became a major concern in the market over the last month, and Xunlei’s own confession that weak accounting practices could constitute an investor risk did little to help its case. Add to that a lawsuit by seven major global record labels over music piracy (previous post), and the offering quickly shrank by more than half, from the previous $200 million to about $75, by the time  Xunlei finally decided to scrap the deal, at least for now. The company is likely to relaunch this offering when market sentiment improves, and would be well advised to clean up its accounting books and the content traded on its site before it makes such an attempt. Of course, those kind of clean-ups could be costly — wiping out substantial amounts of revenue and significantly shrinking the company’s prospects. Still, I would expect to see Xunlei return to market in the next 2-3 months, this time in a much lower-key offering and probably seeking a much lower valuation than it previously hoped for.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s withdrawal of it IPO reflects both company and market issues, but it is likely to make a second, more low-key, lower-valued bid in the next 2-3 months.

昨天,我写了一篇关於视频和音乐分享网站迅雷纽约上市计划迅速缩水的文章,而今天,迅雷看似将彻底无限期推迟IPO,成为市场和公司因素“完美风暴”的受害者。迅雷在一份简要声明中称,鉴於目前的市场情况,该公司决定推迟上市时间。迅雷IPO急转直下,而一个月前该公司还表示,希望融资规模能达到2亿美元。迅雷曾宣称,其支持者包括百度<BIDU.O>、谷歌<GOOG. O>及新闻集团<NWSA.O>媒体大亨默多克,鉴於默多克因窃听丑闻缠身,这种支持似乎已不那麽重要了。过去一个月来,中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻成为市场的主要关注点,而迅雷承认,会计问题或构成投资者风险对其亦无益。此外,全球七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权。该公司IPO规模迅速缩水逾一半,从先前的2亿美元降至迅雷最终决定暂停IPO计划时的7,500万美元左右。  如果市况转好,迅雷或将重启IPO,并可能会被建议提前清理会计账本和网站内容。当然,这种清理行动成本可能很高,会使其营收大幅减少,并导致公司前景大打折扣。不过,我预计迅雷未来两三个月将重归IPO轨道,届时迅雷料将更为低调上市,并可能大幅下调融资规模预期。

一句话:迅雷暂停IPO计划是出於公司和市场原因,但未来两三个月,该公司很可能会再次筹备上市,但将更低调,融资规模更小。

Related postings 相关文章:

Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

E-commerce in China is hot right now and apparel seems to be the latest hot area based on the latest deal involving online footwear seller Yougou. News on the investment is a bit conflicting, but consensus seems to be that Yougou has received hundreds of millions of US dollars in a new round of funding, and some are specifying the amount is around $450 million, with investors including Hong Kong-listed footwear distributor Belle International (HKEx: 1880) and Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). (English article; Chinese article) I haven’t been a big fan of Baidu’s e-commerce initiatives in the past, most notably its failed online store You’a, but this one certainly looks like it could have some potential with both a big Internet name behind it in the form of Baidu itself and a big apparel manufacturer and retailer in the form of Belle. This latest investment comes amid a recent flurry of activity in the e-commerce sector that points to its strong growth potential. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) bought into online retailer Yihaodian in May (previous post), and leading online apparel seller Vancl is reportedly in the process of an IPO that many believe will do well despite weak investor sentiment toward Chinese companies in general. Leading Web commerce company Alibaba also made  headlines last month when it split its Taobao unit into three pieces, a move aimed at breaking out the more profitable online B2C store business from the more problematic online auction C2C site. (previous post) All these companies are clearly chasing a growing Chinese Internet market that now numbers more than 500 million users, many of whom like to shop online as such transactions become easier and provide more choice and quality guarantees to traditional brick-and-mortar stores. As the market develops, Yougou looks like it’s in a nice mainstream niche and should be an interesting company that, depending on its finances, could make an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line: Online footwear seller Yougou looks like a smart investment for backers Baidu and Belle International, with potential for big growth and an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

电子商务目前在中国非常热门,鉴於鞋类销售网优购网日前获投资,服饰似乎是最新的一个热门领域。相关新闻说法略有些矛盾,但共识是,优购网在新一轮融资中筹到上亿美元,一些报导称,该融资具体金额约为4.5亿美元,投资者包括香港上市的鞋类销售商百丽国际<1880.HK>和网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。一直以来,我并不看好百度的各种电子商务举措,尤其是失败的百度有啊网站,但这次百度和百丽联手投资看似颇具潜力。电子商务领域近期各种动向均表明该领域极具增长潜力。沃尔玛<WMT.N>5月收购中国在线零售商1号店股权,有报导称凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股(IPO),许多人认为,尽管对中国企业投资者情绪普遍偏弱,但凡客诚品IPO或会有良好表现。阿里巴巴集团上月将淘宝网分拆为三家独立公司,意在将盈利的B2C业务同问题重重的C2C业务分离。上述公司显然都加紧在中国互联网市场发展步伐,中国网络用户目前已突破5亿,许多人喜欢网上购物,因为交易更容易,选择更多,而且有质量保证。随着网购市场的发展,优购网看似发展方向不错,根据其财务状况,公司或会在未来两三年上市。

一句话:优购网增长潜力巨大,并有望在未来两三年上市,百度和百丽投资优购网似乎是明智之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元?