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Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

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It’s been less than a week since Beijing announced new incentives to help boost its struggling alternate energy sector (previous post), and already we’re seeing the first trickle of new deals as state-run entities start to heed the call to help these companies by building new projects. In the first round of what will undoubtedly be many similar announcements in the months ahead, solar cell maker Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has signed a contract with a unit of China Power Investment Corp to provide panels for a plant in Qinghai with up to 30 megawatts of capacity. (company announcement) In a similar deal announced at nearly the same time, wind energy specialist Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) has announced its own tie-up with another state-owned entity, the operator of the massive Three Gorges Dam Project, to co-develop wind energy projects in Guangdong province and potentially overseas down the road. (company announcement) Neither of these deals should come as a huge surprise to anyone, as Beijing has indicated for the last few months that it will step up to help these promising but struggling young companies through the worst-ever downturn for their young industry. What is a bit surprising is how fast Beijing has taken action, with these two deals coming just a week after it announced its first concrete incentives to help the sector, which just proves that the central government can move surprisingly fast when it makes up its mind to do something. This coming wave of orders from domestic Chinese power producers, combined with recent positive signs from the global market (previous post) mean the sector will be poised for a sharp comeback in the months ahead, making these beaten down stocks an attractive prospect in the second half of the year.

Bottom line: The solar sector is poised for a strong comeback, riding a rebound in global demand and a coming wave of new domestic orders like ones just announced by Trina Solar and Ming Yang.

中国政府宣布新能源刺激政策还不到一个星期，我们已开始看到新的协议签署，因国有企业响应号召，通过新项目来帮助这些企业。光伏产品制造商天合光能<TSL.N>与中国电力投资集团旗下公司签署协议，向青海一工厂提供太阳能面板。未来数月，预计还将有更多类似协议宣布。几乎与此同时，风电厂商明阳风电<MY.N>宣布，与另一家国有企业–中国三峡集团旗下公司中国三峡新能源公司签署协议，在广东省共同开发风电项目，未来还可能在海外进行合作。这些协议毫不令人感到意外，因为中国政府最近几个月已表示，将帮助这些遇到困难的新能源企业渡过难关。但让人意外的是中国政府行动会如此之快–刚刚宣布新的行业扶持政策就有两宗协议签署，由此证明，只要中央政府下定决心，就可快速行动。中国国内风电企业的此番“订单潮”以及全球市场最近出现的积极迹象都意味着，太阳能产业未来数月料迅速扭转颓势，今年下半年这些公司的股票料前景向好。

一句话：全球需求反弹以及中国将出现一批类似天合光能、明阳风电的新协议，太阳能产业料强势复苏。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

◙ China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

◙  Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

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Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achieves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.

Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.

新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域，都算是後来者，但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉，上月启动轻博客公测版後，其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充，两款产品实现相互联通，实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长，若到今年底用户达到1,000万，我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实，则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N)，今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速，微博也开始盈利，我认为，最快到明年底，新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起，在美国上市。与此同时，腾讯也制定详细计划，打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网，将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似，腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群，将服务拓展至新领域，短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O)，成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然，腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些，需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位，我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客，其成功几乎没有悬念。

一句话：新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量，而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

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Despite an ongoing high-profile dispute with global credit card leader Visa (V.N), leading Chinese credit and debit card transaction processor UnionPay is pushing ahead with its plans to become a top global player, signing a new tie-up with US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), the fifth largest US bank. (English announcement) The deal, which comes not long after a similar tie-up between UnionPay and Visa’s closest global rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA), will see UnionPay cards accepted by some 1 million US and European merchants who use US Bancorp’s Elavon financial network. The deal should come as a nice boost not only to UnionPay and its stakeholders, which include China’s top banks, but also to hotels, restaurants and other US shops on the Elavon network, which will now be able to accept credit and debit cards from the growing tide of Chinese traveling to the US and Europe for business and pleasure. This deal is the latest in a growing string of similar tie-ups for UnionPay over the last two years, as it looks to set up a global network to rival those of Visa and MasterCard, leveraging the growing spending power of consumers in its home China market where it has a monopoly on credit and debit card transaction processing services. The company is growing rapidly, with a profit of 972 million yuan, or about $150 million, last year, up 30 percent from the previous year. A recent small share of its sales valued the company at more than $11 billion. With growth potential well above that of its major stakeholders, I suspect UnionPay will make a dual IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong in the next 12 months, as its major shareholders, which include leading banks ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 600398) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), look to raise more cash to bolster their shaky balance sheets. Such an offering could be one of the hottest in quite a while, as investors flock to a company with the clearest potential to take advantage of the growing spending clout of Chinese consumers.

Bottom line: UnionPay’s latest tie-up with US Bancorp will give the company a nice boost in the US and Europe, in the run-up to a blockbuster IPO in the next 12 months.

中国银联与全球信用卡领头羊维萨卡(Visa)的高调纠纷尽管还在继续，但这一中国主要的信用卡交易处理商正致力发展成为全球顶级运营商的宏图大计，与美国第五大银行US Bancorp(USB.N) 签署了新的合作协议。前不久，中国银联和Visa的宿敌万事达卡(MA.N)刚刚达成类似的合作协议。该协议将使中国银联卡被大约100万使用US Bancorp金融网络的美欧商户所接受。该协议不仅对中国银联及其股东是个推动，也有利于使用US Bancorp的Elavon结算平台的酒店、宾馆和其他美国店铺，他们将能接受来自中国游客的信用卡和借记卡消费。这也是中国银联过去两年一系列合作项目中的最新一起。中国银联垄断着中国国内的信用卡和借记卡交易处理服务，中国银联希望凭借中国国内消费者日渐增长的消费力为杠杆，建立一个全球性网络，抗衡Visa和万事达卡。中国银联的发展速度很快，去年的利润达到了9.72亿元(约1.5亿美元)，同比增长了30%。由于其增长潜力远远好于主要股东的业绩，我认为，中国银联在未来12个月将寻求在上海和香港进行两地上市，因包括工商银行(601398.SS)(1398.HK)、建设银行(601939.SS) (0939.HK)等在内的主要股东希望筹集更多资本支持自身摇摇欲坠的资产负债表。类似IPO可能会是相当长一段时间内的热门投资之一，因投资者将涌向一个明显有潜力利用中国消费者消费力的公司。

一句话：中国银联和US Bancorp的最新合作将使银联在美欧市场获得良好发展，为未来12个月的重量级IPO作好准备。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

◙ Hilton, Starwood Roll Out Welcome Mat for Chinese 喜达屋、希尔顿迎合中国消费者

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

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Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has just announced updated guidance for its second quarter that looks downright ugly, making its rosy outlook for the rest of the year even stranger, possibly signalling a bottom for the struggling solar sector in its worst-ever downturn. Just days before reporting its results, Trina has told the market it expects its unit sales to come in around 10 percent below its previous guidance, while margins will miss previous guidance by an even sharper 20 percent. (company announcement) But what’s decidedly odd here is that the company is sticking to its previous full-year guidance for 65-70 percent shipment growth on the back of a sharp turnaround in the second half of the year. The conflicting news initially spooked investors, who sold off Trina shares but then later started buy, causing the company’s stock to end down a modest 1.4 percent on Tuesday, well ahead of much bigger losses for the broader indexes. The unusual second-quarter guidance looks even stranger in light of much more positive second-quarter guidance given a day later by rival Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which said its results will come in at or higher than previous forecasts (company announcement). I’m going to be a bit cynical here and note that Trina was one of two companies whose audit committee chairmen suddenly resigned last month (previous post), which hinted at potential accounting issues within the firm. That said, Trina’s sudden sharp shortfall in quarterly results looks suspiciously like part of an effort to quietly cover up accounting issues that need to be “resolved”. If that’s the case, then the company should be commended on the one hand for resolving those issues, but also criticized for the way in which it did so. Regardless, investors are clearly focused on the future, which includes fresh incentives from Beijing for building new solar power plants (previous post) and a possible pick-up in demand from other global markets. Still, I would be wary of Trina’s stock for the short term, even as the broader solar sector appears on the cusp of a comeback.

Bottom line: The solar sector’s downturn may have bottomed out in the second quarter, but look for continued uncertainty around Trina following the resignation of its audit committee chairman.

天合光能(Trina Solar)(TSL.N)刚刚下调了第二季度光伏电池出货量和毛利率的预估，使其对今年馀下时间作出的靓丽前景描绘更显诡异，可能也为苦苦挣扎的光伏产业发出了一个陷入谷底的信号。天合光能在距离季度财报发布仅几天的时间下调预估，预计其光伏电池出货量比此前预估低10%，而毛利率相比此前预估则降幅更大，达到20%。但奇怪的是，天合光能依然坚持此前65%-70%的全年出货量增长预估，因公司预计今年下半年将有大转机。这种逻辑相悖的消息起初吓坏了投资者，他们先抛售天合光能的股票，随後又买进，造成该公司周二股价收低1.4%，但依然好于大盘表现。而其竞争对手英利绿色能源(YGE.N)一天后表示该公司业绩符合或高于其此前预估，英利第二季度更为正面的预估，使得天合光能异乎寻常的第二季度预估看起来更为奇怪。我在这里要做个小小地恶意揣测，并要指出天合光能的独立董事兼审计委员会主席上月突然离职，这暗示着公司内部可能潜存着审计问题。这就是说，天合光能大幅下调季度业绩，看起来似乎像在悄然掩盖“亟需解决的”审计问题。若果真如此，那麽我一方面既要称赞天合光能对这些问题的解决，又要批评其解决之道。无论如何，投资者明显着眼的是未来，包括中国对修建新的光伏发电的最新激励措施以及全球其他市场可能增加的光伏需求。但我短期内对天合光能的股价还是有所警惕，即便整个光伏产业似乎都在反弹回归中。

一句话：光伏产业的疲软可能在第二季度见底，但伴随着审计委员会主席的辞职，天合光能似乎还有不确定性。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

◙ Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

◙ More Solar Woes at Trina, Renesola 昱辉阳光、天合光能：旧伤未去，新伤又来

China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

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After months of talk, China has finally come out with some concrete details of how it plans to support its struggling solar panel makers, rolling out a new set of state-set electricity rates designed to make solar power generation economically attractive. Under the new rates announced earlier this week, solar power producers will be able to charge 1.15 yuan per kilowatt hour for their electricity, according to Chinese media reports. (Chinese article) Shares of major names like Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), Suntech (NYSE: STP) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) briefly surged on the news, but then gave back most of their gains after investors and industry watchers did some number crunching and realized the new rates were far from ground-breaking. One industry source told me that under the new rates, a relatively well-planned and managed power producer might expect to earn an annual return of 2-3 percent — not very exciting when other options are available at much lower risk levels. In order for this plan to work, local governments will have to step in and offer their own incentives for building new solar power plants — something that will probably happen on a much more piecemeal basis. Following the central government’s announcement, I would expect to see a string of announcements of new projects in the months ahead as local governments and big state-controlled power producers like Huaneng (HKEx: 902) fall into step with the central government’s policies. Industry leaders with strong government connections, such as Hong Kong-listed GCL Poly Energy (HKEx: 3800), could be some of the biggest beneficiaries of a new round of China construction that could see the nation install as much as 10 gigawatts of new capacity by 2015 and 50 gigawatts by 2020. (previous post) The new policy should also receive general public support because of its green nature, making it less prone to potential cuts under a likely new wave of cutbacks in major new government programs sparked by Beijing’s desire to cool the economy.

Bottom line: Beijing’s announcement of new tariffs for solar power projects presages a series of new solar power projects in the coming months to support the struggling solar panel sector.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ More Solar Woes at Trina, Renesola 昱辉阳光、天合光能：旧伤未去，新伤又来

◙ Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

◙ China Backs Solar Firms With Europe Financing 中国继续支持国内太阳能企业

 

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

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After years of stagnanation under charismatic but otherwise uninspired longtime Chairman Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) seems to finally be regaining some of its long-lost excitement with buzz of Wang’s imminent departure and the signing of a new deal to sell Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone. In the latest development on the Apple front, Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile’s Beijing subsidiary has quietly added the iPhone 4 to the list of models it will support for international roaming plans. (Chinese article) While use of unauthorized iPhones on China Mobile’s 2G network has been common ever since the iPhone first debuted, this official support for Apple could indicate that China Mobile may be very close to striking a deal to offer official iPhone service that can run on its 3G network using homegrown Chinese technology. The company announced last year it was in such talks with Apple, and a low-key visit to its headquarters in June by Apple COO Tim Cook fueled speculation that a deal could be near. (previous post) The talk alone has helped China Mobile’s languishing stock to regain some of the momentum it has lost over the last few years to more nimble rivals China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), which also have the advantage of using better technology in their 3G networks. Adding to the growing excitement around China Mobile’s “rebirth”, Chinese media are reporting that Xi Guohua, who recently took over the role of secretary of China Mobile’s state-run parent from Wang Jianzhou (previous post), has now assumed the title of vice chairman at the listed company as well. (Chinese article) Xi’s rapid rise, coupled with last year’s elevation of another up-and-comer, Li Yue, to president of the listed China Mobile, seem to indicate that Wang’s departure from the company could be imminent, bringing in much-needed new blood and fresh ideas to the top of this cash-rich but otherwise stagnant telecoms giant.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s imminent arrival of top new leadership and an iPhone deal will breath new life into the company’s business and also its stock, following years of stagnation.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在经历了多年发展迟滞後似乎终於将出现一些可喜的变化，有传言称，王建宙即将离任，且中移动将与苹果<AAPL.O>签署销售iPhone手机的协议。关於中移动与苹果的最新合作进展，据中国媒体报导，北京移动悄然将iPhone 4列入了促销活动范围。尽管自iPhone上市以来，在中移动2G网络上使用未被授权的iPhone手机相当普遍，但这种对苹果手机的正式支持或许意味着，中移动与苹果可能接近达成协议，在其3G网络上提供iPhone服务。中移动去年曾宣布，公司正与苹果公司就相关合作进行谈判，而苹果首席运营官库克(Tim Cook)6月份低调访问中移动总部的消息也加剧了这一传闻。仅传言本身就帮助中移动疲软的股价重获动力，中移动在过去几年的增长势头不及中国联通< 0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>。另外，据中国媒体报导，刚接任中移动母公司党组书记不久的奚国华已被任命为中移动上市公司副董事长。奚国华的快速晋升以及去年升任中移动上市公司总裁李跃的提升似乎说明，王建宙可能即将离任，这将为中移动高层带来亟需的新鲜血液和想法。

一句话：经过数年的发展迟滞後，中移动即将出现的高层变动以及与苹果的协议将为该公司业务和股价带来新的活力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

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The relentless drive by telecoms equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) to break into the US continues, with the pair taking decidedly different approaches in their quest to be first to make big bucks in the world’s most lucrative telecoms market. First ZTE. While everyone has focused on ZTE’s frustrations in the US selling networking equipment, most notably its failure to win a big contract earlier this year from Sprint (NYSE: S) (previous post), the company has quietly become a major force in the much lower profile but still quite lucrative US cellphone market selling its low-cost smartphones. One of my company sources tells me that ZTE is currently on track to sell $600 million worth of cellphones in the US this year, or double its volume from 2010, as it focuses on a product where it has done well and, equally important, which is far less sensitive than networking equipment that tends to raise security concerns. While $600 million isn’t huge for a company like ZTE, it’s still around 6 percent of the company’s forecast revenue for this year, which is still significant and could easily become more so if it can continue the strong growth with its low-cost smartphones. For Huawei, Chinese media are reporting the company has hired John Suffolk, former chief information officer of the British government, as the company’s new global cyber security officer. (English article) This move looks quite brilliant, as Huawei clearly has landed someone with strong Western government connections and telecoms security background to play a dual role in not only advising it on how to make its equipment more secure against cyber attacks, but also to ease government concerns in the US and Western Europe that Huawei’s equipment might somehow pose a risk of spying by the Chinese government. Huawei’s step is only the latest in a long series of moves aimed at solidifying its long-term position in the global telecoms market, and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised  to see it not only score its first big US sale in the next year, but also to take over the spot as the world’s top mobile networking equipment maker from Sweden’s Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) in that time frame.

Bottom line: ZTE could broach the $1 billion sales mark in the US next year through its fast-growing cellphone business, while Huawei’s latest hire should help it enter the US in the next year.

中国两大电信设备提供商–中兴通讯<00063. SZ><0763.HK>与华为<HWT.UL>继续努力打入美国市场，但是策略迥异。先说中兴通讯。当人人还都在念着中兴通讯向美国市场出售网络设备上的挫折，特别是今年稍早未能赢得Sprint<S.N>一项巨大合约时，这家公司已经悄悄成为了美国手机市场的一支重要力量，在这里销售其平价的智能手机。一名公司消息人士告诉我，中兴正推动今年在美国手机销售达6亿美元，较2010年翻番。中兴在手机领域表现不错，而且这块市场不像电信设备那麽敏感。6亿美元对中兴不算太大，但仍然占到了公司今年财测的6%左右，这相当不错，而且如果其低成本智能手机销售强劲势头继续，那麽中兴手机业务将会占据更重要的分量。再说华为。据中国媒体报导，华为已聘请英国政府前首席信息官约翰•萨福克（John Suffolk）担任全球网络安全官。此举看起来非常聪明。华为显然是请到了既有很强西方政府关系、又有电信安全背景的人来发挥双重作用：萨福克不仅可以建议华为面对网络袭击如何增强设备的安全性，还可缓解美国与西欧等政府的安全忧虑。华为意欲巩固其在全球电信市场的长期地位，此举只是一系列朝向这个目标的举措之一。以目前的速度来看，华为如果明年锁定首笔在美的重大销售交易、且超过爱立信<ERICb.ST><ERICb.ST>成全球头号移动网络设备制造商，我不会感到意外。

一句话：明年，中兴通讯借助手机业务的快速增长，明年有可能在美国市场的销售突破10亿美元大关。而华为此次招贤则应会帮助它明年踏入美国市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Haier Takes Strong SE Asia Step With Sanyo Buy 海尔购三洋白电业务

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Home appliance maker Haier (HKEx: 1169), a former rising star among Chinese exporters that has gone quiet in recent years, has re-entered the spotlight with its pending purchase of the Southeast Asian refrigerator and washing machine business of Japan’s Sanyo Electronics. (company announcement) This deal could provide a nice boost for Haier, which was already working with Sanyo in some of the markets included in this deal, but strong execution will be critical — something Haier may or may not be able of doing. Sanyo says it is selling the business to Haier as part of a broader reorganization to eliminate overlap with its parent, Panasonic (Tokyo: 6752), which purchased a majority stake in Sanyo in late 2009.  I have no doubt that this is true, but it’s also true that Sanyo lost money in its last fiscal year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if its home appliance division contributed to those losses. Part of those losses no doubt come from any of Sanyo’s costs structures in expensive Japan that Haier would inherit as part of this deal. Haier would presumably move any such operations to cheaper locations to make the business profitable. Working to Haier’s advantage, the business it is buying is also relatively modest, with revenue of around $1 billion. Haier also brings a few strong points to this deal, including its previous joint ownership of the Sanyo Thailand refrigerator business. Overall, given the relatively small scale of the business Haier is acquiring, combined with Haier’s own experience working in developing markets like its own home China market, this purchase looks like a relatively safe one for Haier and should ultimately contribute to its bottom line if it can successfully integrate the business into its own global network.

Bottom line: Haier’s plan to purchase Sanyo’s Southeast Asia white goods business looks like a smart and manageable move for Haier in its quest to become a global brand.

中国家电制造商海尔集团<1169.HK>重新进入人们的视野，公司将购入日本三洋电机在东南亚的洗衣机和冰箱业务。这项交易可对海尔起到很好的提振作用，但关键是执行，海尔在这方面的能力还不是很好说。三洋电机称向海尔出售业务属整体重组的一部分，目的是砍掉与母公司松下<6752.T>重叠的业务。我认为这种说法不假，但还有一点也不假：三洋上财年亏损，如果家电业务对其亏损有一定“贡献”，我不感意外。毫无疑问，部分亏损源於三洋在日本的成本结构，其中部分可能也会转嫁到海尔身上。海尔估计会让此类业务转入成本较低的地点，以实现盈利。海尔所购业务规模不算大，营收大约10亿美元，这点对海尔有利。总体而言，由於海尔所购业务规模不大，加上海尔自身在新兴市场的丰富经验，此桩交易对海尔似乎相对保险，而且最终应会增加海尔的净利，但前提是海尔能将收购的业务成功融入其全球网络中。

一句话：在海尔努力成就全球品牌地位之际，公司购三洋在东南亚白电业务看起来比较明智、可控。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Philips Taps Electric Rice Bowl With Shanghai Deal 飞利浦收购奔腾 进军中国电饭煲市场

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

 

Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

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After months of wrangling, Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma has finally reached a settlement of his dispute with stakeholders Softbank (Tokyo: 9984) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) over the spin-off of the company’s Alipay electronic payments service, in what looks to be both a PR and monetary victory for Ma himself. (company announcement) It’s hard to say too much without knowing more about the financial structure of Alibaba, but the fact that the company will only get 37.5 percent of any proceeds from a future Alipay IPO, as stipulated in the terms of the agreement, looks like Alibaba — which counts Yahoo and Softbank as its controlling stakeholders — is getting surprisingly little from this investment that it once presumably owned completely. Terms of the deal say the parties expect Alipay to be valued at anywhere from $2 billion to $6 billion by the time an IPO or other “liquidity event” occurs, which means that Alibaba Group will get as little as little as $750 million from this asset by the time it goes public, which one might expect in the next 2-3 years. Despite an official announcement filled with lots of happy quotes from all three parties, including Softbank’s waxing on the importance of trust, this deal seems to hint of more conflict ahead as undoubtedly both Yahoo and Softbank will constantly worry that Jack Ma is trying to take advantage of them again in the years ahead. In this version of events that has just been announced, Jack Ma seems to come out the winner most ways you look at it, taking control of Alipay by only giving a third of the company to his partners, and also looking reasonable to the world after his childish behavior throughout this drawn-out conflict. If I were Yahoo or Softbank, I would try to get out of my Alibaba investment sooner rather than later, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of these companies try to sell their stake in this troubled company by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Jack Ma has won a PR and financial victory in his new Alipay settlement with Yahoo and Softbank, with more stormy relations between these 3 partners likely in the months ahead.

经过数月的争吵，阿里巴巴集团董事长马云终於就其与两大股东软银<9984.T>和雅虎<YHOO.O>就支付宝股权转让事件达成协议，对马云来说，似乎是公关和财富双赢。在对阿里巴巴财务结构所知甚少的情况下，我们很难就此事过多评论，但事实是，根据协议条款，阿里巴巴只能获得支付宝上市收益的37.5%，阿里巴巴似乎从这笔投资中所获甚少。预计支付宝将在未来两三年上市。尽管正式声明中充满了三方的友好表示，但该协议似乎暗示着未来会出现更多冲突，因雅虎和软银无疑都担心，马云未来几年会再次试图占他们的便宜。马云似乎怎麽看都是此次事件的最大赢家：首先，只把三分之一的公司出让给合作夥伴便掌控了支付宝；其次，通过这一旷日持久的纷争，协议的达成对世人也是个合理交待。如果我是雅虎或软银，我会努力尽早撤出对阿里巴巴的投资。如果在今年年底前看到两公司或其中之一试图出售阿里巴巴的股份，我一点也不会感到意外。

一句话：在此次与雅虎、软银就支付宝股权转让的纷争中，马云公关赚钱两不误，而三方未来数月的关系料不会一帆风顺。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

◙ Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽？

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

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Competition appears to be getting stiff in the Chinese group buying space, with word that Groupon-invested Gaopeng is dumping its paid search spend on both Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they have simply become two expensive. (English article) The reports cite unnamed sources, but if true, the news is significant because it marks the lightest sign of trouble in the vibrant group buying space. It could also be an early warning sign for Baidu, which is trying to squeeze more money out of its advertisers as growth in the new sign-ups for its advertising services slows. (previous post) Regular readers will recall that group buying sites were all the rage among venture capitalists earlier this year, with three sites, Dianping, 55Tuan and Lashou raising $500 million combined, as global leader Groupon also entered the China market by forming Gaopeng together with Tencent (HKEx: 700). 55Tuan became the first company to show signs of trouble when reports emerged earlier this week that at least 3 major investment banks were refusing to underwrite its planned IPO due to accounting concerns. (previous post) This latest report on Gaopeng would seem to reinforce that group buying is not quite as big in China yet as all the hype, with Gaopeng itself only generating a relatively modest 30 million yuan per month in revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two of these group buying sites combine within the next year as competition remains intense. Meantime, Gaopeng’s dumping of Baidu could also be an early warning sign for China’s search leader, which could start to see similar defections as companies balk at paying Baidu’s higher ad rates. Baidu said earlier this week that spending from individual customers grew by more than 50 percent in the second quarter (previous post), and clearly some customers like Gaopeng are not happy with those big increases and are looking for more cost effective ways to advertise.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s dropping of Baidu’s paid search services reflects both intense competition in the group buying space, and also a coming wave of defections by cost-conscious Baidu advertisers.

中国团购行业的竞购看似日益激烈，有传言称，Groupon投资的高朋网因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。报导援引了匿名消息人士的说法，但若真有此事，这则消息可谓重磅，因这意味着中国如火如荼的团购行业初露窘相。这可能也是对百度的一个早期预警，百度正试图向其广告客户收取更高的费用，因其广告业务的新签订单步伐放缓。经常看我博客的读者应该还记得，团购网站今年早些时候可谓风行一时，大众点评网、窝窝团和拉手网三家网站共募得5亿美元风险资金，与此同时，美国团购网站Groupon携手腾讯<0700.HK>成立了高朋网，进军中国市场。窝窝团是首家显露困境的团购网站，本周早些时候有报导称，至少三家国际投行因担心会计问题而拒绝代理其上市业务。这则关於高朋网的最新报导似乎再次说明，团购在中国的发展并非像炒作的那般声势浩大，高朋网一个月的营收也仅有3,000万元。随着竞争的白热化，倘若未来一年内有一两家团购网站合并重组，我将不会感到意外。同时，高朋放弃在百度投放广告也为百度提了个醒儿，面对百度不断上涨的广告费用，很多公司犹豫不决，百度或将开始看到类似的“倒戈”会不断出现。百度本周早些时候表示，第二季度个人客户的广告费用增加逾50%，很明显，高朋网这样的一些客户对百度大幅增加广告费用的举动很不高兴，并正寻求性价比更高的途径进行广告宣传。

一句话：高朋网放弃在百度投放广告不仅反映出团购行业的激烈竞争，而且也说明百度或面临一波广告客户“倒戈”风潮。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ China Groupon Wannabes in Fund-Raising Frenzy 中国团购网站掀起融资狂潮

NetEase Sharpens Up Messaging in Run-Up to Portal Spin-Off 网易剥离门户网站 再度磨砺电邮服务

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Internet stalwart NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) is prettying up its popular e-mail and other messaging services as it prepares to spin off its older portal business into a separate company, bringing focus back to these services that were once its bread and butter but later became neglected as it moved its attention to online games. Chinese media are reporting that just weeks after telling the world of its plans to spin off its portal business, most likely into a separate unit that will become publicly listed (previous post), NetEase is releasing some figures for its e-mail service, once a leader in China, that still look relatively impressive. The company says it now has more than 400 million registered e-mail users, whose accounts will be integrated with its mobile, instant messaging and other platforms. (English article) It goes on to add that the e-mail business, banking on advertising and income from other value added services, is already profitable. Old timers will remember that NetEase’s 163.com and 126.com were among China’s earliest e-mail services, and at one point were nearly synonymous with e-mail in China. Of course the same can be said of AOL, which is now a shadow of its former self. But in NetEase’s case, I think these portal and messaging products never really fell from grace quite as badly as AOL and were rather just neglected. That said, I’m quite confident NetEase can revive these products without too much effort if  it tries and, if it does, create a nice “new” product to compete with old rivals Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) in an IPO that should be fairly profitable and attractive.

Bottom line: NetEase’s renewed attention to its e-mail is the latest step as it prepares its portal business for an IPO that should be quite attractive.

互联网公司网易<NTES.O>在筹备剥离门户网站、成立单独公司之际，正在装扮网易电邮与其他信息传送功能。昔日相关服务曾是网易的核心业务，但因网易後来把重点放在了网游上，这些业务被冷落。几周前网易刚刚对外公布要分拆门户业务，很可能要成立一家单独的公司，将来还可能会上市。中国媒体报导网易正公布其电邮服务相关数据，曾经电邮领域的领头羊现在表现仍算不错。公司称网易目前拥有注册电邮用户4亿人，用户的账户将与其他平台整合。而且网易还表示得益於广告与其他增值服务，电邮业务已开始盈利。老客户应该还记得，网易的163.com和126.com属中国最早的一批电邮服务，甚至一度是中国电邮的代名词。当然你也可以说美国在线(AOL)也发生过类似的事。但就网易而言，我认为，网易的门户和讯息类产品从来都没有像AOL那样跌得那麽惨，它们充其量只是被忽视了而已。可以这麽说，如果网易尝试，我相信其可以不费吹灰之力地重振这些产品，并在IPO中创建一个可以抗衡新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>的新产品。

一句话：网易重新关注其电邮服务是准备为其门户业务上市所迈出的最新一步。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ NetEase Looks to Reinvigorate Portal 网易似要重振门户

◙ Sohu: New Media Fox or Just Another Game Player? 搜狐：新媒体巨头还是一个网游公司？

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务