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News Digest: September 17-19, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 17-19. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Citic Securities (Shanghai: 600030) Said to Seek Up to $1.9 Bln in IPO Test for HK (English article)

◙ Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Plans China Expansion With Move Into Display Ads (Chinese article)

◙ China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) to Sell iPhone 5 Next Month – Source (English article)

◙ Huawei Hires IBM (NYSE: IBM) as Brand Strategy Consultant (English article)

◙ Former Acer (Taipei: 2353) CEO Lanci Joins Legend Group as Consultant (Chinese article)

Perfect World: Trouble Brewing in Online Games? 完美世界调降财测释放行业预警信号

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With all the buzz out there about a looming China Internet bubble, new downwardly revised guidance from Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD), one of China’s more innovative and outward looking online game operators, looks like a potentially worrisome warning flag. According to its newly released latest estimate, the company expects to earn around 720 million yuan in revenue for the third quarter, or about $110 million, down by a sizeable 8 percent from its previous forecast given out just 3 weeks ago for about 780 million yuan. (English announcement) The company cites a new “take it slower” strategy to lengthen the lifecycle of its games, but that didn’t help its shares which tumbled 20 percent on the Nasdaq after it made the announcement. Reaction on Wall Street was mixed for other Chinese online game sites, with Sohu’s (Nasdaq: SOHU) Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) both down around 5 percent or more, while Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) was down by a more modest 1.1 percent. Up until now I haven’t really discussed whether online games would be affected by China’s looming Internet bubble, as this category gets most of its money from young gamers who are a different set of customers from the more mainstream online shoppers whose overhyped potential is fueling the current bubble in e-commerce and group buying sites. Recent growth in the online game market has been much more reasonable than e-commerce, and the sector has attracted far fewer new investment dollars in the last year, so I think it’s probably a bit too early to say this group is set for a correction based only on this one downward revision. But one or more similar announcements from other big players will definitely cast a chill over this sector, which, despite its more reasonable growth rates, is still highly competitive with a large cast of companies fighting for a relatively small pool of gamers’ spending.

Bottom line: Perfect World’s downward revision for its Q3 revenue is a worrisome signal for the online game sector, though it’s too early to say if a broader shake-up is looming.

就在中国互联网泡沫即将破灭的议论不断之时，极具创新性和外向型的在线游戏运行商–完美世界(PWRD.O)最近下调财测，看似是对互联网泡沫忧虑的印证。该公司最近公布的预测显示，第三季度营收预计为7.2亿元人民币左右，较三周前预测的7.8亿元下降近8%。完美世界称新制定了“放缓”战略以延长游戏产品的生命周期，但这没有对股价形成支撑，声明发布之後该公司股票在Nasdaq市场下跌了20%。华尔街对其他中国在线游戏公司股票的反应好坏参半，搜狐畅游和网易的股价都下跌了5%以上。盛大游戏下跌1.1%，跌幅相对较小。到目前为止，我没有真正谈起中国的互联网泡沫是否会影响到在线游戏公司。这个行业的大部分营收来自年轻的游戏玩家，他们与更加主流的在线购物网站的客户不同，後者易于接受天花乱坠的宣传，可能加速电子商务和团购网站的泡沫化。与电子商务市场相比，最近在线游戏市场增长则更加理性，在过去一年里吸引的投资也远小得多，因此，我认为仅仅根据这一次财测下调尚不足以说明，在线游戏行业发展将出现修正。但是，其他大型公司若发布一两个类似声明，将无疑说明这个行业的危机临近，尽管在线游戏行业增长率更加合理，由于大量公司争夺相对较小的在线游戏收入，业界也充满竞争压力。

一句话：完美世界调降三季度营收预测，发出在线游戏行业令人忧虑的信号，不过要说更大范围的变动即将来临也还为时尚早。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Boring Games, Video Drain Drag Down Shanda

◙ Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

◙ Lenovo’s Game Console — Yet Another Plan 联想：新推游戏机，这次能行吗？

 

Muddy Waters, Taobao Mall Wake Up to China E-commerce Hype

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After several years of near-nonstop hype about the potential of e-commerce in China, notorious China short seller Carson Block and leading e-commerce operator Alibaba Group are both finally waking up to the same reality that much of the talk is vastly exaggerated. In many ways, this reality should come as no surprise to anyone, as even bullish market watchers say that all online sales in China stood at a relatively modest $50 billion last year. So even if they double over the next 2-3 years, we’re still only looking at $100 billion in overall sales by 2015 — a fraction of levels in developed markets like the US and hardly enough to support the huge number of online merchants that have exploded onto the scene in China with billions of dollars in new funding over the last year. According to one media report, Carson Block, who does business through his firm, Muddy Waters, said many Western investors see a small segment of newly wealthy Chinese consumers in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and mistakenly extrapolate that to the entire nation of 1.3 billion, even though a big majority of those people live on annual incomes of $2,000 or less. (English article) Meantime, a report in the Chinese media is saying that Alibaba Group’s leading B2C site, Taobao Mall, has raised the threshold for online merchants to use its site, partly in a bid to squeeze more money out of them but also to weed out the many companies that stand little chance of long-term success and could potential damage the site’s reputation with poor customer service and fraudulent business practices. (Chinese article) Taobao’s sister company, Hong Kong-listed Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is currently dealing with a similar situation in the overhyped B2B space, following a scandal earlier this year that saw its CEO resign after the company disclosed a relatively large number of fraudulent merchants operating on its site. (previous post) Alibaba, Block and others are finally waking up to the reality that China’s e-commerce market, while full of long-term potential, has become overhyped and in need of a clean-up of many smaller, less reputable merchants.

Bottom line: The latest comments from short seller Carson Block and news on Taobao indicate a much-needed cleanup is underway for China’s unruly e-commerce sector, with more to come.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

◙ E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

◙ China Internet Bubble Sees Vancl Dressing Down 中国互联网泡沫见证凡客裁员

 

360Buy IPO: Let the Delays Begin 京东商城放缓IPO进程

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Just a week after leaking out word that it was accelerating plans for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion, leading online merchant 360Buy is waking up to the reality that perhaps nobody wants to buy into its shaky story, with Chinese media reporting the company has decided to slow down the ambitious offering. (Chinese article) Does this come as a surprise to me or anyone else who’s been watching the rapidly chilling market for Chinese IPOs in the US? Any regular readers will know the answer to this question is a definite “no”, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this IPO shelved indefinitely until 360Buy either runs out of cash or market sentiment improves significantly, which in all likelihood won’t happen until late next year. The latest reports, citing people in the investment banking community, cleverly point out that 360Buy wasn’t even planning an IPO until the second quarter of next year anyway, after those same sources got the market buzzing last week by saying the selection of underwriters was underway, implying the blockbuster offering could come as soon as the end of this year. (previous post) Now those investment banking sources are saying that 360Buy is further delaying the process due to “less than perfect” financials, an obvious reference to the fact that the company has yet to turn a profit and previously predicted it wouldn’t even break even until 2012. With the current rampant competition in China’s e-commerce market, I wouldn’t be surprised if 360Buy, which also goes by the name Jingdong Mall and whose investors include Russian Facebook backer Digital Sky Technologies, has to delay its break-even forecast by another year, meaning it won’t be able to show any meaningful profits until 2014 at the earliest. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this offering delayed until 2013 or even later and for far less than $5 billion, assuming the company is still in business at that point after China’s looming Internet bubble bursts.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s clumsy attempt to test the market for a blockbuster IPO has met with little or no interest, forcing it to delay the deal to to 2013 or later.

仅在一周前，京东商城透露称将加速赴美上市融资50亿美元的计划，但或许是意识到没人买账的现实，据中国媒体报导称，京东商城已决定放缓IPO进程。对于我和其他关注中国企业赴美上市热潮迅速降温的人来说，感到惊讶吗？一直关注我的专栏的读者都知道，答案绝对是否定的。除非京东商城资金链断裂或市场环境明显改善（在明年下半年前都不太可能发生），否则京东商城无限期搁置IPO计划，我一定都不会感到惊讶。近期报导援引投行人士的说法巧妙指出，京东商城甚至不打算在明年第二季度前进行IPO。上述消息人士上周称，京东商城正在选择承销商，暗示其最早今年底将进行IPO，此话引发市场骚动。这些投行消息人士现在却说，京东商城因财务不完善，将进一步推迟IPO时间，明显是指京东商城尚未盈利的事实，先前有人预计，甚至到2012年，京东商城可能都无法实现收支平衡。鉴于中国电子商务市场竞争激烈的现状，如果京东商城将盈利时间点再推迟一年，即最早2014年才有望实现大幅盈利，我不会对此感到惊讶。如果确实如此，我认为，假如中国互联网泡沫破裂後，京东商城还在运营的话，该公司IPO将推迟到2013年或之後进行，融资规模也将远远小于50亿美元，

一句话：京东商城以大规模IPO计划，笨拙试探市场，但感兴趣者寥寥无几，迫使其推迟IPO计划至2013年或之後。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

 

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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After a few weeks of relative quiet for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in China, there’s new buzz in the telecoms sector that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is set to start offering the iPhone 5 in October, ending months of speculation about the move. (Chinese article) The Chinese media reports are a bit unclear about whether the smallest of China’s 3 telcos has actually signed a deal with Apple, only saying China Telecom will offer the iPhone 5 starting in October and that vendors are already placing orders for the popular smartphone. That does seem to imply that the two sides have signed a deal, although I would expect an official announcement from China Telecom if that was the case, as clearly this is news it would want to publicize as part of its aggressive drive to build up its fledgling 3G business. Regardless of the actual situation, it does appear that China Telecom will start to offer iPhone service plans by October or November at the latest, which should give it a brief momentum boost over its two chief rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHT) as the 3 jostle for share in China’s 2-year-old 3G market. I use the word “brief” because China Telecom will probably only have a 2 or 3 months to bask in its new iPhone deal before China Mobile announces a bigger new deal to offer an iPhone that can work on its own 3G network, based on a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-SCDMA. (previous post) Such a deal has been rumored for months and appears to be near, which should help China Mobile take back some of the momentum it has lost over the last 2 years to China Telecom and Unicom, which already offers the iPhone. Of course, the winner in all this will be Apple itself, which will be able to use all 3 of China’s telcos to offer its iPhones that enjoy huge popularity in China — the world’s largest mobile market with more than 900 million subscribers. But among the carriers themselves, look for China Telecom to enjoy some momentum through the end of this year, which it will rapidly lose in 2012 after China Mobile signs its own iPhone deal.

Bottom line: China Telecom’s imminent deal with Apple to offer iPhones for its 3G network will give it new momentum over its rivals that will last through the end of the year.

围绕苹果(AAPL.O)的消息在中国刚相对平静了几周，通信业内又传出中国电信(0728.HK)(CHA.N)将于10月率先在中国推出iPhone 5的消息，结束此前几个月的坊间猜测。中国媒体称，还不清楚中国电信是否已经确实与苹果签订了有关协议，只是说中国电信将从10月开始提供iPhone 5， 经销商已经下单采购。这看似意味着双方已经签约，不过我预计若确有此事，中国电信会发布正式公告。这明显是中国电信想对外散布消息，也是希望推广其3G业务努力的一部分。无论实际情况如何，中国电信看似确实要在10月或最晚11月开始推出iPhone服务计划。这无疑在中国电信在3G领域挑战中国联通和中国移动过程中，带来短时的提振。我说“短时”是因为中国电信可能只会赢得两三个月的时间，享有拓展iPhone业务的领跑优势，随後中国移动可能会宣布更大规模基于其3G标准–TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone推广计划。关于中移动的传闻已经有几个月，现在似乎已经快要接近现实了，这将帮助中移动收复过去两年流失到中国电信和中国联通的部分失地。无疑，苹果将是上述竞争的最终获益者，能够利用中国全部三家电信公司的渠道售卖iPhone，而苹果的iPhone产品在拥有逾九亿用户的全球第一大移动通讯市场享有极高人气。但是，从各家中国电信运营商来看，中国电信在年底前会享受些许成长助力，在明年中国移动签约自己的iPhone之後，中国电信在这方面的优势将迅速消退。

一句话：中国电信即将签约苹果，提供用于其自身3G网络的iPhone业务启动在即，将在移动通讯市场竞争中获得新的动能，但好光景也许只能维持到年底。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

US Solar Probe: Get Ready for China Bashing 美国太阳能调查：炮轰中国大潮的前奏

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The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has seized on a scandal surrounding a bankrupt US solar panel maker for some new political theater, which means we can probably expect to see a new round of China bashing in the run-up to next year’s presidential election. So what’s happening here? According to media reports, US solar panel maker Solyndra could default on a $528 million loan guaranteed by the US government following its recent bankruptcy filing, forcing the government to repay the loan. (English article) While this appears to be a purely US matter, since both the company and loan are US-based, an investigation in the House of Representatives is likely to explore WHY the US firm went bankrupt as part of a Republican-led show designed to embarrass the Democrats. When that happens, executives from Solyndra and other struggling US solar panel makers, many of which have also gone bankrupt in recent months, will undoubtedly tell Congress about the unfair competition they face from big Chinese names like Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which receive huge support from the Chinese government in the form of subsidies and preferential loans, in addition to their natural advantage of low labor costs. When that happens, look for House Republicans to take at least some symbolic action, such as proposing punitive tariffs for Chinese-made solar cells, to show they are being tough on China in the run-up to next year’s elections. Of course, none of their plans will ever succeed since the Democrats still control the Senate and the presidency. But that kind of reality hasn’t stopped the Republicans since they gained control of the House last year, and all the talk and negative publicity could cause an already battered field of US-listed Chinese solar firms to see their shares sink even lower.

Bottom line: Chinese solar panel makers are likely to become targets in an upcoming round of political theater in Washington, further pressuring their already-battered shares.

美国太阳能面板生产商Solyndra破产，众议院借题发挥，也就是说走向明年总统大选前，我们可能又要看到一轮炮轰中国的热潮。到底是什麽情况？据媒体报导，Solyndra近日申请破产後，公司的5.28亿美元政府担保贷款可能发生违约，迫使政府出面还款。虽然此事看似美国内务，因无论当事企业还是贷款都是发生在美国境内，但众议院调查可能会清查Solyndra为何破产。众议院由共和党控制，调查旨在让民主党难堪。一旦调查展开，Solindra与美国其他苦苦挣扎的太阳能企业必定向国会大倒苦水，抱怨面临尚德(STP.N)、天合光能(TSL.N)与英利(YGE.N)等中国太阳能大企如何进行不公平竞争。中国政府通过补贴与优惠贷款等形式向这些企业提供巨大支持，而且公司本身还有劳动力成本低的天然优势。如果出现这种情况，预计众议院内的共和党人至少会采取象征性行动，诸如提议对中国制造的太阳能电池板徵收惩罚性关税，以在大选日益临近之际彰显他们对中国的强硬态度。当然，他们的提案根本行不会获得通过，因为民主党仍控制参议院与白宫。但这并不妨碍共和党去采取行动力，一切的争论与负面宣传可能导致在美上市的中国太阳能题材股进一步下跌。

一句话：华盛顿新一轮政治博弈越来越近，中国太阳能面板制造商可能不幸沦为博弈目标，进一步压低相关企业的股价。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

◙ Suntech: Separating Good Solar from Bad

◙ LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

DreamWorks Dreams of China With New JV

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The draw of China, with its legions of viewers who can’t get enough of Hollywood movies and TV shows, has seduced DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), which is preparing to set up a joint venture to make films just for the Chinese market. Western media are reporting the animation arm of the studio founded by Steven Spielberg and Jeffrey Katzenberg has hired a recruitment firm to staff up a production operation in China, though additional details of the plan were thin. (English article) If true, this would mark the second big move in China for DreamWorks, which just last month signed a distribution agreement with leading online video Website Youku (NYSE: YOKU) (English article), and is part of a broader trend that has seen the major Hollywood studios take a recent new interest in the China market as demand for legal content grows. DreamWorks’ two moves would follow the phenomenal success of its latest “Kung Fu Panda” film, which broke the box office record for an animated feature in China, partly due to its Chinese theme that appealed to local audiences. DreamWorks wouldn’t be the first to set up a filmed entertainment joint venture with an eye to earning big bucks in China. Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) was quite bullish on the market when it established a similar joint venture a while back, but had difficulty competing with the pirates who made its films available on bootleg discs usually within days of their theatrical releases. What’s different here is that while Warner was going for a smaller slice of the Chinese market with lower-budget films, DreamWorks has shown with “Kung Fu Panda” that it can make blockbusters that can do well enough at the box office to support their big budgets. The latest “Kung Fu Panda” earned nearly $100 million at the Chinese box office this summer, proving the market is growing fast and could easily justify a made-for-China title with a budget of up to $20-$30 million. Given its expertise at making popular animated films and China’s growing fondness for such films, I would say DreamWorks’ China dream looks like more than just a fantasy, with a very good chance for big success.

Bottom line: DreamWorks’ plans for a China animation joint venture looks like good business for this animation specialist, drawing on Chinese viewers’ fondness for slick Hollywood blockbusters.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

 

 

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

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Yihaodian, the online merchant that made headlines earlier this year when it got an investment from global retail giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (previous post) looks like the latest company to show signs of distress in China’s growing Internet bubble, following a report that gives it a surprisingly low valuation. According to the report, which cites an unnamed industry source, Wal-Mart, which bought an unspecified stake in the online retailer earlier this year, recently bought another 20 percent for a relatively modest $65 million. (English article) Some simple math will show this puts Yihaodian’s value at about $325 million if the report is correct. The same report cites Yihaodian’s chairman saying reports that Wal-Mart will take over the company are incorrect and that the size of the stake purchase is incorrect as well. But even if the numbers are slightly off, this market valuation for what is presumably an up-and-coming online retailer looks tiny compared to numbers being mentioned for other e-commerce firms, most notably an estimated $10 billion valuation given earlier this year by investors in 360Buy, China’s second biggest online merchant which is now hiring an investment bank for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion. (previous post) I realize that Yihaodian is much smaller than both 360Buy as well as leading online retailer Taobao Mall, owned by Alibaba Group. Still, this $325 million valuation looks like a real bargain for Wal-Mart, and no doubt represents an attempt by the worried seller of the stake, in this case Yihaodian’s controlling shareholder Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shenzhen: 601318), to get back some of its investment before China’s Internet bubble bursts. As the Internet bubble swells and starts to pop, look for more of these sales at bargain prices as investors try to recoup some of their investments before it’s too late.

Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s purchase of 20 percent of online retailer Yihaodian for a bargain price will be followed by similar sales, as investors try to recoup their money before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

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Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (English article) I’m guessing this report, which cites an unnamed source, is probably very preliminary, as any such talks wouldn’t have started until after Bartz’s firing on Wednesday. What’s more, Yahoo’s acting CEO is just filling the position on an interim basis, meaning he would be highly unlikely to make such a major decision until a new permanent CEO arrives. But such a sale will inevitably be discussed, and I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is exactly NOT the time to consider such a move. I agree that the Alibaba stake was a major distraction for Bartz during her stormy tenure, and that I said once or twice that the company should try to sell it to focus on its own turnaround story. But the fact is, Alibaba and Yahoo could potentially really help each other, which is the main reason the former sold 40 percent of itself to the latter in 2006 when Yahoo was headed by Jerry Yang, good friend of Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma. If Yahoo’s new CEO can build a good working relationship with Ma, there are many places this pair could benefit each other. Yahoo has a solid global network in search and e-commerce that could both greatly benefit the global aspirations of Alibaba’s two e-commerce sites, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Taobao. From Yahoo’s perspective, it could leverage Alibaba’s position as China’s top e-commerce company to make another play for the China search market, especially after Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) high profile departure last year that left Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) with a near monopoly that is clearly making Beijing uncomfortable. Of course we’ll need to see who Yahoo picks as its new CEO, but if it’s smart it will bring Jack Ma into the process to hopefully find someone who can take advantage of this troubled but potentially lucrative relationship.

Bottom line: Yahoo would be well advised to delay considering a sale of its Alibaba stake, and should instead focus on finding a new CEO who can work well with the Chinese company.

仅在雅虎(YHOO.O)解雇首席执行官（CEO）巴茨（Carol Bartz）两天之後，已经有报导称雅虎正在商谈出售所持有的阿里巴巴公司40%股权。我猜这篇援引未具名人士的报导内容可能非常不成熟，这种重要的谈判在巴茨周三被解雇之前并不会开始。此外，雅虎的代理CEO只是临时应急，也就是说在新CEO到任前，他绝无可能作出这个重要决定。然而，商讨出售阿里巴巴股权将无可避免，我也想借这个机会说，现在绝不是考虑采取行动的好时机。我也认为阿里巴巴股权问题是巴茨在任期间让她主要困扰的问题。我曾说过一两次，雅虎应该尝试出售持有的阿里巴巴股权，聚焦于改善自身经营业绩状况。但是，阿里巴巴和雅虎事实上存在真正相互支持的可能性，这也是前者在2006年将40%股权售予雅虎的主要原因。当时雅虎的CEO是杨致远，也是阿里巴巴董事局主席马云的好朋友。如果雅虎的新任CEO能够与马云建立良好的工作关系，两家公司在很多方面可以实现互惠互利。雅虎拥有稳固的全球搜索和电子商务网络，可以极大惠及阿里巴巴旗下两家电子网站--阿里巴巴和淘宝的全球发展目标。从雅虎的角度来看，可以利用阿里巴巴在中国电子商务领域的龙头地位，在中国搜索市场再做文章。尤其是在谷歌去年高调离开之後，百度获得了接近垄断的行业地位，这明显让中国政府感到不安。当然，我们需要看看雅虎挑选谁来担任CEO，但是雅虎如果足够聪明的话，将请马云参与到寻找合适人选的过程中，处理好目前陷入困难但仍有希望改善的双方关系。

一句话：雅虎应该延後考虑出售所持阿里巴巴的股权，聚焦于加快寻找能够与阿里巴巴睦邻互惠的新任CEO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

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After several weeks of quiet, the lingering confidence crisis for US-listed China stocks has returned to the headlines again in a report saying the US securities regulator is clashing with a major accounting firm over records for one of the biggest companies to fail in the crisis. The accountant, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, is apparently stalling to comply with a subpoena from the US Securities and Exchange Commission calling on it to hand over accounting records regarding Longtop Financial, a financial services firm whose shares tumbled and was later delisted after a major accounting scandal erupted earlier this year. (English article) Deloitte’s stalling tactics are a worrisome sign, as they seem to indicate that perhaps it suspected problems at Longtop long before it resigned from the account during the scandal. This is exactly the kind of news the market doesn’t want to hear, as it would imply that perhaps Deloitte and other major accounting firms like PricewaterhouseCoopers may often have suspicions about US-listed Chinese companies’ accounting records, but simply stay quiet to avoid losing any business, obviously a huge breach of their responsibilities. Some old timers might remember that a much bigger accounting scandal in the 1990s over former energy high-flyer Enron ultimately brought down former major consulting firm Arthur Andersen. I doubt Deloitte or any other major accounting firms will face a similar shut-down from this latest confidence crisis. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the major accounting firms going back to re-examine the books of their US-listed China clients, and perhaps a resignation or two as accountant for one or more of the larger listed companies in the next few months.

Bottom line: An ongoing clash between the US securities regulator and Deloitte over fraud at a US-listed China firm could mark the opening of a new chapter in the confidence crisis toward US-listed China stocks.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

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I have just one word to describe the news that leading Chinese online merchant 360Buy will try to raise up to $5 billion in the largest-ever Internet IPO for a Chinese company in the US: desperation. (English article; Chinese article) But I have to at least give this company credit for trying to get to market before a looming Chinese Internet bubble bursts, which could rapidly wipe out billions of dollars that investors have pumped into 360Buy, which officially calls itself Jingdong Mall. This is the company that surprised the world in April when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion — a record for a Chinese Internet company — from an investor group that included Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies, better known for its investment in Facebook. (previous post) Digital Sky’s chief later tried to justify the size of the investment, estimating that 360Buy could have a market cap of $10 billion — more than double that of most to Chinese Internet firms and trailing only top players Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post) Never mind the fact that 360Buy was losing money, which will become quite clear to everyone when if and when it files its IPO prospectus. Lots has happened since that landmark investment five months agol. Most notably, competition in the e-commerce space has heated up considerably with the influx of billions of dollars in new investment. Money-losing online promotions offering goods at ridiculously low prices appear almost daily, and early signs of distress have begun to appear with big names like group buying site Gaopeng and clothing retailer Vancl laying off staff (previous post). 360Buy showed its own signs of distress last month when it abruptly severed relations with e-payments provider AliPay in a move to cut costs. (previous post) I suspect Digital Sky and the other investors from that $1.5 billion funding round are starting to panic, and are now in a race against time to get back some of their investment before China’s bursting Internet bubble is impossible to ignore. If I were a gambler, I would say this offering will raise $1 billion at the most, and quite probably less, if it even makes it to market. The way things are rapidly developing, the company will be lucky to get a valuation of $5 billion.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s sudden rush to raise up to $5 billion in a US IPO is a sign of desperation, as investors look for quick returns before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

看到京东商城要去美国上市筹资50亿美元的消息，我只想用一个词来描述我的看法：绝望。京东商城是中国最大的购物网站，这个上市计划一旦成功将创下中国互联网公司赴美上市筹资额的历史之最。不过，对京东在中国互联网行业泡沫行将破裂前，尝试借助资本市场的努力，我还是至少要给予褒奖。中国互联网泡沫的破裂可能导致投资者对京东商城倾情投入的数十亿美元迅速灰飞烟灭。今年4月，京东商城从包括俄罗斯风投公司数字天空技术（Digital Sky Technologies）的投资者财团成功筹集到15亿美元资金，创下中国互联网公司对外定向筹资的纪录。这让外界倍感意外。数字天空技术更出名的行动当属投资Facebook，该公司後来试图为其投资规模找出理由，称京东商城的估值可能高达100亿美元，较大多数其他中国互联网公司的市值高出一倍有余，仅次于百度和腾讯等龙头企业。不要介意京东商城正在亏损，这一事实在这家公司发布上市招股书的时候将大白天下。在五个月前获得标志性巨额投资之後发生了很多事情。最值得关注的是，随着数十亿美元投资的流入，电子商务行业竞争显着升级。几乎每天都能看到提供荒唐低价商品的赔钱促销活动，随着团购网站高朋和服装零售网站凡客的裁员，电子商务行业已经初露危机迹象。上月，京东商城以降低成本的名义突然弃用支付宝，正是前者面临危机的迹象。我猜测，稍早提供15亿美元融资的数字天空技术公司等投资者已经感到痛楚，在不敢无视中国互联网泡沫行将破裂的情况下，正争分夺秒争取上市，以抢先回收部分投资。如果我是一名赌家，我会押注京东商城若决定上市，最多筹得10亿美元，并很可能更少。世事变幻莫测，京东商城若能筹得50亿美元，则需要运气。

一句话：京东商城突然宣布计划赴美上市筹资50亿美元，释放出绝望的信号，机构投资者期待抢在中国互联网泡沫破裂前赶快回收投资。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？