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Qihoo Goes to War With Mobile Browsers 奇虎360加强移动互联网布局

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I’ll be direct and say I don’t particularly like computer security software firm Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) due to its often questionable business practices and its guerrilla-style marketing tactics, which China’s weak legal system seems to encourage through lack of meaningful penalties. That said, market watchers might want to keep any eye on the company’s new plan to put the mobile Internet at the center of its strategy going forward. Qihoo has just launched a new suite of mobile browsers (company announcement), and its CEO Qi Xiangdong says the company is devoting big resources to development of its mobile Internet business. (Chinese article) I don’t know if these new browsers are good or not. But that probably won’t matter, as Qihoo, using its guerrilla-style tactics, will find a way to get these products onto the mobile phones of most Chinese consumers in the next year or 2 whether they want them or not, much the way it has done with its Web security products. Qihoo products, once on a person’s computer or mobile phone, are also very difficult to delete, and the company often designs in features to crowd out competing products. For older folks out there, Qihoo’s tactics are reminiscent of the kinds of things AOL did in the 1990s to become the leading US Internet service provider, before its rapid fall from grace when the Internet moved from dial-up phone service to broadband. The only difference is that AOL at least acted legally, while Qihoo has the added option of illegally sabotaging rival products to help propel its new mobile browsers to prominence. If I were an investor and didn’t have any qualms about ethics, I would say that Qihoo 360 shares could look like a good bet in the future, as the mobile Internet is clearly a strong growth area and Qihoo seems to have the right stuff to be a leader in the space. But then there’s always the chance that Beijing regulators or Chinese courts may some day sit up and try to rein in this unruly company.

Bottom line: Qihoo 360 guerrilla marketing tactics will give its new mobile Internet initiative a good chance of success.

开门见山地说，我不太喜欢计算机安全软件公司奇虎360<QIHU.N>，因为这家公司的商业行为经常令人质疑，采用游击式营销战术，而中国法律体制不够健全，惩罚力度不足，在某种意义上纵容了此类行为。不过，这家公司日前把移动互联网放到公司未来发展的战略中心位置，市场观察人士不妨关注一下。奇虎360刚刚推出一套新的移动浏览器，该公司总裁齐向东称360将投入最大的精力去发展移动互联网。我不知道新浏览器怎麽样。不过浏览器好不好可能无所谓，因为无论消费者想不想要，可能未来一两年内，奇虎都会利用游击战术把新的浏览器加入到中国用户手机上，重演360互联网安全产品的推广过程。奇虎产品一旦安装到电脑或者手机上就很难删除，而且其产品设计往往有排挤竞争产品的特点。对於年龄稍大的人而言，奇虎战术有点美国因特网服务提供商AOL上世纪90年代的影子。唯一的区别是，至少AOL没有违法，但是奇虎却可能利用不当手段，排挤竞争产品，以推动其新的移动浏览器占据显着地位。如果我是一名不太考虑道德规范的投资者，那我会说未来奇虎360股票是一个不错的选择，因为移动互联网显然将增长强劲，而奇虎又具备成为该领域领袖的潜质。不过话说回来，难说中国监管层或中国法院哪天突然决定管教一下这匹脱缰的马。

一句话：凭借游击营销战术，奇虎360移动互联网新计划胜算颇高。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Qihoo Loses Yet Another Lawsuit, But No One Cares 奇虎败诉不足为戒

◙ Qihoo: A Strange Tiger, Indeed 奇虎：真的是头怪虎！

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Penalty Reform 中国终于下决心:改革惩罚制度

Investors Punish Sina for Slow Weibo Progress

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Leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is discovering there’s nothing like a good rumor to hammer one’s stock. The company’s shares are down nearly 18 percent over the last two days, including a 15 percent tumble on Tuesday, apparently on concerns that Beijing is preparing to license all microblogging siites, and that Sina’s sector leading Weibo service is not among 4 companies set to receive licenses. (Chinese article) Beijing has certainly shown a recent tendency to want to license things on the Internet, first requiring electronic payments firms to register with the government and later making similar requirements for online mapping companies. But in both instances, the government has shown little or no inclination to severely limit the number of licenses, and instead these mandates look more like efforts to provide more government oversight to ensure orderly development. That said, we’ve heard little or no indication so far that Beijing wants to regulate other areas like search, music, video or online games by forcing all participants to get government licenses. In this case, I suspect the sell-off reflects investor fatigue over the near non-stop hype surrounding Weibo since Sina spun it off into a standalone unit earlier this year (previous post) in preparation for a separate listing as soon as next year if the unit can find a way to turn its vast user base of 200 million into a profit center. Even after the sell-off, Sina’s price to earnings ratio for the next year is quite high at 125, though that probably doesn’t include any contribution from Weibo. Inn that light, this sell-off seems to be a call by investors for Sina to tone down the Weibo hype and instead to show some profits for this asset that looks attractive for its user base but has yet to show any contribution to Sina’s bottom line. Given Sina’s strong record at execution, I would say that Weibo should finally be able to show investors some money as soon the end of next year.

Bottom line: A sell-off of Sina shares reflects investor impatience over development of its Weibo microblogging site, which could turn a profit as soon as the second half of next year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

China Carmakers Lose a BRIC in Export Drive 中国汽车厂商的出口机会将逐步缩窄

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Chinese car makers looking to exports to offset slowing sales at home have received a setback, after an alarmed Brazil sharply raised car import tariffs in a move that appears to be aimed at a sudden spike in Chinese imports. (English article) According to a domestic media report, Brazil rushed through the new rates, which will raise tariffs by 30 percentage points, after imports of Chinese cars zoomed from zero last year to 43,000 vehicles in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 3.3 percent of the market. The increase will deal a blow to car makers like Chery and Dongfeng Motor (HKEx: 489), as they look to foreign markets to help offset slowing domestic sales. China’s car makers saw their sales jump by healthy double-digit rates in 2009 and 2010, as their market, with the help of rising incomes and buying  incentives from Beijing, zoomed past the US to become the world’s largest by unit sales. But the growth has come skidding to a halt this year as incentives expired, prompting some of the more innovative companies to look abroad to offset the slowdown. Most   domestic firms’ cars are too low in quality to compete in developed western markets, leading some to target developing markets like the BRICS. This latest move by Brazil spotlights the risks for that road, as developing markets aren’t likely to welcome a flood of imported vehicles that could hurt their own domestic automakers, and will thus resort to this kind of tax to encourage investment in their domestic industries. Indeed, China itself uses just such tactics, imposing high tariffs on imported autos that have encouraged foreign giants like GM (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) to invest heavily in the Chinese domestic industry. Chery has already detailed plans to invest $400 million in a Brazilian manufacturing plant, and this latest move by Brazil is likely to spark more similar moves for companies that have the cash to invest.

Bottom line: Brazil’s tax increase on imported cars will put the brakes on Chinese exports to the market, and spotlights the difficulties they will face exporting to developing markets in general.

巴西大幅提高汽车进口关税，似乎在遏制中国产品进口的骤然增长。这令中国汽车厂商寻求以出口增长抵消内需放缓的努力遭遇挫折。根据巴西媒体报导，巴西今年前八个月进口中国汽车4.3万辆，占到巴西市场的3.3%，而去年进口还是零，这促使巴西政府匆忙出台新关税税率，大幅提高30个百分点。该举措将给奇瑞、东风集团等中国汽车厂商沉重一击，他们原以为可以借助国际市场抵消国内销售放缓的冲击。2009年和2010年，中国汽车厂商销量均以两位数增幅上升，在民众收入提高和中国政府鼓励政策支撑下，中国汽车市场以销量计算已经超过美国，成为全球之首。但是，随着购车刺激政策到期，今年销量增长陷于停滞，促使一些更具创新性的公司开始瞄准海外市场，寻求以此抵消国内市场放缓的影响。多数国产汽车质量太差，无法参与发达国家市场竞争，部分企业于是转向包括金砖国家在内的发展中国家市场。巴西最近开始的关税行动给中国厂商敲响了警钟，发展中国家市场也不大可能容忍进口汽车泛滥，并伤害到本国企业，于是终将拿起关税武器，鼓励外商投资于本国的汽车产业。实际上，中国自己实行的也是这种策略，对进口车徵收高关税，鼓励通用汽车(GM.N)和大众汽车(VOWG.DE)等行业巨头大量投资于中国汽车工业。奇瑞已经制定了详细计划，拟投资4亿美元在巴西建制造厂。巴西提高关税的举动很可能是希望刺激更多有投资能力的企业仿效吉利。

一句话：巴西对进口汽车提高征税标准将遏制中国对巴西汽车出口，也凸显了中国汽车厂商对发展中国家市场出口面临的困难。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Chery: A Good Bite With Subaru But A Lemon With Venezuela 奇瑞汽车喜忧参半

◙ China Buses: Cheap But Stuck in China 金龙：别开得太快

◙ Autos: a Desperate Capital Grab for Jianghuai, and Dongfeng’s Silly South Africa Plans 汽车业：江淮增发东风出口

Tech, Environmental Issues Cast New Clouds Over Solar Firms

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As if things weren’t bad enough for Chinese solar firms, two new developments  are casting clouds over this already struggling sector, one overseas and one at home. Overseas, foreign media are reporting that new solar cells with record efficiency developed by First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), one of the last US players still in business following a recent round of bankruptcies, could significantly undermine Chinese rivals. (English article) The second development has seen a smaller US-listed Chinese firm, JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS) apologize for leaking toxic waste into the environment at its China plant, and promise to clean up the mess. (English article) Let’s look at the First Solar development first, as it probably has the biggest implications. First Solar has showcased a new technology that can turn more than 15 percent of the sunlight it captures into electricity, a huge increase over current top rates that now stand at around 11 percent. Presuming it can commercialize the technology quickly, this kind of efficiency should give the company a huge edge over its Chinese rivals like Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which may have to further lower their already anemic prices to attract customers with their less efficient products. Of course the Chinese companies are also working hard to develop their own higher efficiency products, but unless they can bring some to market soon we might even see First Solar tie up with one or two Chinese producers if demand for the new high-efficiency cells is strong enough. As to JinkoSolar, this story highlights China’s growing concerns about its environment and crackdowns on companies that carelessly dispose of their wastes. I suspect that the larger solar makers are more responsible in their waste disposal, but wouldn’t be surprised to see unexplained rising costs on some of their balance sheets in the next year or two as they install more equipment to dispose of their toxic wastes in more environmentally friendly ways.

Bottom line: New high efficiency solar cells from a US firm will further pressure already weak prices at Chinese players, whose costs for treating their toxic wastes are also likely to rise.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US Solar Probe: Get Ready for China Bashing 美国太阳能调查：炮轰中国大潮的前奏

◙ US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

◙ Solar Buzz at German Show on New Tech, M&A

Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

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The ongoing confidence crisis in the accounting practices of US-listed China stocks continues, with word that China’s securities regulator may be trying to squash the most commonly used route for Chinese firms to list overseas. Media are quoting industry sources saying the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has submitted a plan to the nation’s Cabinet asking it to shut down the route, known in the industry as use of Variable Interest Entities or VIEs, or at the very least require all companies that use this gray-area road to overseas listings to vet their financials through the Chinese regulator. (English article; Chinese article) There are clearly some alarming implications here, especially if the Cabinet takes the more extreme route and shuts down the VIE listing route that has been in effect for more than a decade now, staring with listings of Web names like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) as early as the late 1990s, and which has expanded since then to include other areas like media and microchips. While one can never exclude a more drastic action, the CSRC’s move looks more opportunistic, aimed at giving it more control over Chinese companies that go overseas to list by drawing on the ongoing confidence crisis over the accounting practices of some overseas-listed China companies. My own sources confirm that something is happening, but share a similar view that any concrete action is probably a year or more away and is highly unlikely to include an outright shut-down of the current VIE process, which has had tacit approval of the central government for more than a decade now. What finally emerges may be a route to overseas listing that will include an added stop through the securities regulator, which could somewhat slow the process and would probably have the added effect of weeding out many more questionable companies like the ones that created the current crisis. In the meantime, we could see a mini-rush of companies making IPOs over the next year if the market improves, as they race to get there before any new policies take effect.

Bottom line: The securities regulators’ attempt to insert itself into the overseas listing process for Chinese firms could lenthen the process, but will also weed out many more questionable companies.

中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻引发的信任危机仍在继续，有传闻称中国证券行业监管机构可能正建议取缔中国企业海外上市过程中最常用的VIE结构。媒体援引行业消息人士报导，中国证监会已经向国务院递交申请，建议国务院取缔业可变利益实体(VIE)这种有争议的公司结构，或是至少要求所有使用这种方式赴海外上市的公司将财务报告提交中国证监会进行审核。显然，这将产生重大影响，特别是如果国务院采取更严格做法，取缔VIE上市途径。VIE做法已经存在十多年，最早开始于上世纪90年代末期新浪(SINA.O)和网易(NTES.O)等互联网公司的海外上市，随後扩大到媒体和芯片等其他行业。尽管无法排除采取更严厉行动的可能性，证监会的行动看似更具机会主义性质，目的在于利用部分海外上市的中国公司因会计问题面临持续信心危机的机会，对海外上市企业加强管控。我的消息人士证实将有事情发生，但是也持有类似观点，即任何具体行动可能要等一年或更长时间才会开始，基本上没有可能全面取缔现有VIE程序，中央政府在过去十多年来始终对此做法采取默许态度。最终结果可能是，计划海外上市的公司必须增加在中国证监会接受审查的程序，这可能会在某种程度上延缓整个上市进程，也可能有效排除更多有问题的公司，就像引发当前危机的这些企业。同时，如果市场大势改善，未来一年很可能出现一波上市小高潮，争相赶在新政出台前完成上市。

一句话：证券监管机构试图介入中国公司赴海外上市进程，可能令上市进程延长，但也将清除更多有问题的公司。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim

◙ Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

 

 

Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

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It’s only 3 months since Alibaba split its consumer-oriented Taobao Website into two units, and already it’s starting to hype the more promising of the  two, the B2C-focused Taobao Mall, in what’s no doubt the run-up to an IPO that could come as soon as next year. At the same time, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is continuing with its battle to win back credibility following a scandal earlier this year, in a clear divergence of strategy for these two sister companies that are both part of Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba Group. Let’s look at Taobao Mall first. The 3-month-old company has held what was probably its first stand-alone press conference, in which it boasted it expects its sales volume to double to 200 billion yuan next year, or about $31 billion, and where it announced a new strategy where it will open its site to other online retailers like Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian in addition to traditional retail names like Dell. (Nasdaq: DELL) (English article) President Daniel Zhang was a big cagier about Taobao Mall’s profits, only saying the company’s profit margin has reached that of other Chinese Internet companies. But clearly the company is feeling pressure to go to market sooner rather than later to return some investment dollars to companies like Japan’s Softbank, who have been waiting 7 years now for a return on their money. I’d look for this IPO to happen as soon as Taobao Mall can show some meaningful profits, probably sometime next year. Meantime, sister company Alibaba.com continues to be on the defensive, following a scandal earlier this year where bogus retailers were cheating buyers on the company’s B2B site. (previous post) Chinese media are reporting Alibaba.com has embarked on a campaign to verify the identities of all of its sellers, clearly in a bid to try and restore confidence to buyers whose numbers have plateaued and even started to fall since the scandal began earlier this year. (Chinese article) Look for this PR campaign to continue and for Alibaba.com to post more tepid results for the next year until it regains the trust of the online B2B buying community.

Bottom line: Taobao Mall’s admission of online retailers to its site is hype for an IPO as early as next year, while sister site Alibaba.com’s will need at least a year to rebuild its credibility following a recent scandal.

距离阿里巴巴将淘宝商城从淘宝网拆分仅仅过去3个月，聚焦于B2C的淘宝商城比淘宝网更有发展潜力，并且至早明年就可以准备上市。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B(HKEx: 1688)作为淘宝网和淘宝商城的姐妹公司，仍在努力消除年初中国供应商丑闻带来的负面影响。昨 天，三个月大的淘宝商城举行了首场独立身份的新闻发布会，预期2012年交易额目标为2000亿元(合313亿美元)，为今年交易额的2倍。会上还宣布淘 宝商城除了像以往那样和传统品牌如戴尔(Nasdaq: DELL)合作外还会与网店结盟，比如沃尔玛(NYSE: WMT)投资的一号店。淘宝商城总裁张勇对其利润守口如瓶，仅仅说与目前的中国互联网公司持平。但是显然公司面临早日上市以回报投资者的压力，软银已经为 投资回报等待了7年之久。我认为一旦淘宝宣布其利润达到某个关键数值就会上市，时间可能在明年。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B年初发生的信任危机导致临阵换将，这一事件的影响至今仍未消除。中国媒体报道，阿里巴巴推出一系列新举措以使入住者重拾信任，但上述公关举措是否能如愿让股票表现回到风波之前的水平，仍不明朗。

一句话：淘宝商城对在线零售商的结盟或许是为了可能在明年达成上市而炒作，与此同时阿里巴巴B2B年内仍要致力于消除中国供应商事件的不利影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

 

News Digest: September 20, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 20. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China’s Sany Heavy to raise $3.33 billion in Hong Kong offer (English article)

◙ China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) Faces Antitrust Investigation – Source (English article)

◙ ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) To Establish Second Bohai Bay Fund (Businesswire)

◙ Buffett-Backed BYD (HKEx: 1211) Shenzhen: Plans Record Bonds Sales (English article)

◙ Online Wine Merchant WineNice.com Wins $80 Mln in First-Round Funding (Chinese article)

Huawei, Lenovo Look to Foreign Advisors in Westward Drive

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There’s a couple of interesting new hires out there from Chinese tech firms Huawei and Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which are both clearly aimed at boosting their global operations. Whether either will succeed is a different matter, though both look like good ideas to me at first glance. First Huawei, which has hired IBM (NYSE: IBM) as a brand strategy consultant for its push into tablet PCs, smartphones and cloud computing. (English article) Like its smaller rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Huawei wants to expand into theses 3 new areas as its growth slows in its core business of making telecoms networking equipment. IBM has a strong record as a brand builder, retaining its image as a premier tech name even after selling its flagship PC business in 2005. Huawei is now in a similar situation to IBM, wanting to transition from a brand known mostly to industry people to a more mainstream consumer name. I’m sure it’s paying IBM big bucks to help in this transition, and that money should be well spent if it can make good cellphones and tablet PCs, which still remains to be seen. As to Lenovo, the company has hired a new advisor in the form of Gianfranco Lanci, who many will remember as the man behind Acer’s (Taipei: 2353) recent rise to become the world’s second biggest PC seller. (Chinese article) Lanci, who correctly predicted the move to laptop computing from traditional desktops, abruptly left Acer earlier this year (previous post) as it became clear the company was running into trouble from relying too heavily on cheap computers and failing to lead in new categories like smartphones and tablet PCs. Still, I like Lanci for his previous foresight and savvy marketing, and think he could be a strong advisor for Lenovo in his home base of Europe. If this relationship works out well, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lanci eventually join Lenovo in an executive position, perhaps even C-level.

Bottom line: The hiring of top western names by Huawei and Lenovo look like smart moves by both companies for their drives into Western markets.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Acer Takes a Hit With Lanci Leaving 宏基痛失兰奇

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

CITIC Securities $2 Bln IPO Looks Good, With Potential to Jumpstart HK 中信证券香港IPO值得期待

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Despite a frosty environment for new initial public offerings, China’s largest brokerage CITIC Securities (Shanghai: 600030) has announced its  moving ahead with a planned IPO worth nearly $2 billion, in what looks like a good bet to breathe some new life into an otherwise moribund market. (English article) CITIC Securities, whose shares have been listed in Shanghai since 2003, is taking an interesting gamble with this offering, and the timing looks particularly curious since the Hong Kong market is down more than 10 percent since the last mega-offering when Prada (HKEx: 1913) listed its shares in June. I suspect the Chinese government has quietly pushed CITIC to go ahead with this deal, as a successful offering could potentially breathe new life not only into Hong Kong, but also into the sputtering Shanghai stock market, which has lost a comparable amount since June. In my view, CITIC Securities represents one of the strongest bets you’ll see for China’s the financial sector, which can always get investors excited due to the nation’s huge growth potential. It’s the premier name among Chinese brokerages which are generally commercially driven, unlike banks that take their cues from the government. What’s more, Chinese brokerages also work as investment banks, giving them nice exposure to a sizable Chinese IPO and bond underwriting market off-limits to foreigners. CITIC Securities now trades at a healthy 15 times this year’s earnings, which is about the industry average. All that said, barring a major sell-off in Hong Kong or Shanghai, I would expect to see this offering do nicely when it debuts in October, possibly giving a small kick to the sputtering Hong Kong and Chinese markets.

Bottom line: CITIC Securities will offer international investors a strong window into China’s brokerage sector, and is likely to see strong demand for its October IPO.

尽管当前新股发行环境严峻，中信证券仍宣布推进在香港规模近20亿美元的首次公开发行（IPO）计划，这或许能为死气沉沉的市场注入些许活力。中信证券2003年就已在A股挂牌，此次香港招股时机有点令人费解，毕竟港股大盘自6月Prada大宗IPO以来已跌逾10%。我推测，可能是中国政府暗中推动中信证券IPO，因为若其招股案成功，不仅能为港股注入新的生机，可能也有助於提振A股，A股6月以来也跌幅惨重。我认为，中信证券是押注中国金融业的一个机会，由於中国经济增长潜力巨大，其金融业也总是能让投资者感到兴奋。中信证券是中国券商中的佼佼者，有别于那些唯行政指引是瞻的银行，中信证券整体上是受商业因素驱动。此外，中国券商也扮演投资银行的角色，因此能受益於中国企业招股活动，以及债券承销业务。中信证券市盈率为15倍，处於健康水准，与行业平均水平相仿。因此除非港股或A股出现沉重跌势，否则中信证券10月在港股挂牌应有不俗表现，或许还能稍稍提振港股和A股。

一句话：中信证券IPO，是国际投资者投资中国券商行业的良机，其10月IPO可能吸引旺盛需求。

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◙ ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

◙ Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

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China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

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A flurry of new reports about China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) highly anticipated 4G network came out toward the end of last week, with news of expanded trials and a near-certain tie-up with Apple (Nasdaq: APPL) for an iPhone that will run on the network’s homegrown Chinese technology. But perhaps more interesting was WASN’T in the reports, namely any updates on China Mobile’s talks to develop an iPhone for its struggling 3G network, also based on a Chinese technology standard. One of the two reports late last week cites China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou saying his company has reached an agreement with Apple to work together on an iPhone for the company’s 4G mobile network using a technology called TD-LTE, which is now in advanced trial stages. (Chinese article) A separate article says China Mobile also plans to soon wrap up its first big-scale trials for TD-LTE in six major cities, with plans to start data card trials by the end of the year. (English article) If all goes according to plan, it looks like we could see China Mobile launch serious commercial trials for this 4G network by the end of next year, with full commercial service as soon as 2013 if the telecoms regulator agrees. That’s all fine and good for people looking ahead to 2013, but what’s missing here is any update from the talkative Wang on current talks to build an iPhone for China Mobile’s struggling 3G network, based on a problematic technology called TD-SCDMA. Reports have been rife for a while that China Mobile was close to a deal for a 3G iPhone, after it confirmed last year that such talks were taking place. But Wang’s latest silence looks like either he’s learned to keep quiet on sensitive matters, or more likely the 3G iPhone talks have hit a stumbling block, perhaps due to technology issues. If that’s the case, China Mobile and its stagnant bottom line may have to wait a while still for an iPhone that could bring new life to its 3G and 4G businesses.

Bottom line: China Mobile is making steady progress on its 4G network, but its chairman’s recent silence means talks for a 3G iPhone may have hit a stumbling block.

有报导称，中国移动将扩大4G网络测试，几乎可以确定将与苹果<APPL.O>合作，推适用於中移动自主研发网络的iPhone。但更有意思的是报导没有提及的内容，即有关中移动引进适用其TD-SCDMA网络的3G版iPhone的谈判。上周有报导援引中移动董事长王建宙的说法称，中移动与苹果达成合作协议，将针对中移动的TD-LTE网络推出新款iPhone。另有一篇文章称，中移动还计划尽快结束在六大城市对TD-LTE网络的大规模测试，拟在今年年底前开始数据卡测试。如果一切按计划顺利进行，中移动似乎到明年底前将正式开始TD-LTE网络的商用，如果得到监管部门的批准，最早2013年起将提供全面商用服务。这对於期待4G网络的人来说是好消息，但一向健谈的王建宙却对适用TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone谈判沉默。去年中移动确认在同苹果进行有关引进3G版iPhone的谈判後，有关协议接近达成的报导曾一度甚嚣尘上。但从王建宙近期三缄其口来看，要麽他学会了对敏感问题保持沉默，或者更可能的情况是，3G版iPhone谈判遇阻，很可能是由於技术问题。如果是这样，中移动或需等待一款iPhone问世，为其3G和4G业务带来新的活力，改善其盈利停滞状态。

一句话：中移动在4G网络方面取得稳步进展，但其董事长王建宙近期在3G版iPhone谈判上的沉默表明相关谈判或遇阻。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone?

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A flurry of new reports about China Mobile’s highly anticipated 4G network came out toward the end of last week, with news of expanded trials and a near-certain tie-up with Apple (Nasdaq: APPL) for an iPhone that will run on the network’s homegrown Chinese technology. But perhaps more interesting was WASN’T in the reports, namely any updates on China Mobile’s talks to develop an iPhone for its struggling 3G network, also based on a Chinese technology standard. One of the two reports late last week cites China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou saying his company has reached an agreement with Apple to work together on an iPhone for the company’s 4G mobile network using a technology called TD-LTE, which is now in advanced trial stages. (Chinese article) A separate article says China Mobile also plans to soon wrap up its first big-scale trials for TD-LTE in six major cities, with plans to start data card trials by the end of the year. (English article) If all goes according to plan, it looks like we could see China Mobile launch serious commercial trials for this 4G network by the end of next year, with full commercial service as soon as 2013 if the telecoms regulator agrees. That’s all fine and good for people looking ahead to 2013, but what’s missing here is any update from the talkative Wang on current talks to build an iPhone for China Mobile’s struggling 3G network, based on a problematic technology called TD-SCDMA. Reports have been rife for a while that China Mobile was close to a deal for a 3G iPhone, after it confirmed last year that such talks were taking place. But Wang’s latest silence looks like either he’s learned to keep quiet on sensitive matters, or more likely the 3G iPhone talks have hit a stumbling block, perhaps due to technology issues. If that’s the case, China Mobile and its stagnant bottom line may have to wait a while still for an iPhone that could bring new life to its 3G and 4G businesses.

 

Bottom line: China Mobile is making steady progress on its 4G network, but its chairman’s recent silence means talks for a 3G iPhone may have hit a stumbling block.