Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

The sudden firing of Carol Bartz, the hard-nosed CEO of search giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is all the talk of the tech world today, and I have no doubt the folks at Alibaba Group, who took every opportunity to bad-mouth this woman, are quietly celebrating the news. (English article) But if he’s smart, Alibaba chief Jack Ma should do more than just celebrate Bartz’s departure, and reach out to the Yahoo board to try and mend fences and even play a role in helping to choose a new CEO that can work constructively with China’s leading e-commerce company, which is 40 percent owned by Yahoo. Ma never tried to hide his animosity towards Bartz, a woman he considered brash and lacking vision, when she replaced his good friend Jerry Yang at the helm of Yahoo several years back in a bid to rescue a company that was rapidly losing ground to more nimble rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). Ma, through well-placed leaks to the media, made it known repeatedly over the last 2 years that he wished Yahoo would sell its stake in Alibaba, and did everything he could to line up potential buyers. But Bartz never took the bait, realizing the Alibaba stake was worth up to $10 billion, thus accounting for a large piece of Yahoo’s market cap, which now stands at $17 billion. Of course, now all the enmity is history, and Ma should take advantage of the moment to see if he can lay the foundations for a more constructive relationship by reaching out to Yahoo’s board rather than waiting for the board or eventual new CEO to come to him. Six months ago I would have said that Ma, who rightly sees himself as one of China’s earliest e-commerce visionaries, was too proud to make such a move. But after a bruising scandal earlier this year that saw him harshly criticized for his secret spin-off of Alibaba’s e-payments unit, AliPay (previous post), he appears to have become a humbler person and may even believe he’s human again! Given all the recent developments, I’d say there’s a very good chance these two partners with such a stormy past might finally be able to sit down together and forge a good new relationship that benefits everyone.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Jack Ma has a golden opportunity to reset his relationship with Yahoo following the firing of its brash CEO, and is likely to reach out to the US company to mend fences.

雅虎(YHOO.O)突然解雇首席执行官巴茨(Carol Bartz),是今天业内的热议话题,我相信,不放过任何攻击巴茨机会的阿里巴巴集团正在暗中庆祝。但如果马云聪明的话,就不只该庆祝巴茨下课,而应采取更多行动,与雅虎董事会接触,力争改善双方关系,甚至积极帮助雅虎挑选一名能与阿里巴巴建设性合作的新掌门。雅虎持有阿里巴巴40%的股份。马云从不掩饰他对巴茨的厌恶之情。马云认为,巴茨傲慢无礼且缺乏远见。几年前,谷歌(GOOG.O)迅速抢占雅虎市场份额,马云好友杨致远当时试图力挽狂澜,而之後巴茨取代杨致远成为雅虎CEO。近两年,马云巧妙地通过媒体,多次表达希望雅虎出售阿里巴巴股份的意愿,并竭尽所能寻找潜在买家。但巴茨从未让马云如愿,因为雅虎所持有的阿里巴巴股份价值已高达100亿美元,在雅虎170亿美元市值中占很大比例。当然,这些都是过去的事了,马云应利用这次机会,与雅虎董事会进行接触,力争为一个更具建设性的合作夥伴关系奠基,而不是坐等雅虎董事会任命新的CEO。如果在六个月前,我会认为,马云自尊心太强,不屑于采取如此举措。但今年早些时候,马云秘密转让支付宝股权遭抨击後,似乎变得更谦逊,甚至令人相信他又有人情味了!鉴于上述最新进展,我敢说,雅虎和阿里巴巴有望冰释前嫌,可能终于会坐下谈判,建设新的双赢合作关系。

一句话:雅虎解雇CEO巴茨,是阿里巴巴董事长马云与雅虎关系重启的绝佳机会,马云很可能会与雅虎接触,改善双方合作关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴:想当老大不容易

Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

My latest glance at the morning headlines is reconfirming for me why longtime China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) Chairman Wang Jianzhou needs to step down, the sooner the better, and hand over control of the company to bolder new leadership that can bring some excitement back to this company. At first glance, his comments that China Mobile would face difficulty but could still reach its target of 50 million 3G subscribers this year looks relatively bold and aggressive (Chinese article), in contrast to a mostly conservative approach that caused the company to become a slow- or no-growth giant during his tenure. But then I did some math, which just shows how nothing about Wang has changed. China Mobile’s 3G network, based on a homegrown standard called TD-SCDMA, had 37.6 million subscribers at the end of July, up about 17 million from the beginning of the year. That means the company has added an average of 2.4 million 3G subscribers per month, with the numbers clearly accelerating in recent months. So doing the math, if it only continues to add subscribers at the same rate for the last 5 months of the year, it would just reach the 50 million subscriber mark. Clearly Wang is not taking any chances here, giving the most conservative forecast possible even though his company is clearly accelerating its 3G promotions, with a wide array of new handsets coming into the market and a deal to offer a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone likely by the end of this year (previous post). With all of those factors working in its favor, Wang’s continued quoting of the 50 million figure, which was given at the beginning of this year and is so obviously attainable, is just the latest indication that he needs to leave China Mobile and let a younger, more aggressive generation of leaders bring back some excitement to the company. The Chinese government has already promoted two younger leaders to key positions in the clearest indication of Wang’s coming retirement (previous post), which should be strongly welcomed by shareholders when it finally comes.

Bottom line: China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou’s latest conservative comments underscore that he needs to retire soon and leave his company to a new generation of more aggressive leaders.

早上看到的媒体报导再次让我确信,中国移动董事长王建宙为何需要让位了,而且是越早越好,将公司的控制权交给更具魄力的新领导能够给这家公司带来新气象。他表示中国移动将面临困难,但今年仍有可能实现5,000万3G用户的目标。乍看之下,与多数时候采取的保守举动相比,他的讲话还算比较大胆和激进。但是,我随後做了些简单计算,发现王建宙的讲话仍然是了无新意。截止到7月底,中国移动基于本土TD-SCDMA标准的3G网络用户为3,760万,较年初增长了大约1,700万。这意味着公司每个月增加了240万3G用户,实际上3G用户数在最近几个月出现了加速增长态势。据此计算可知,如果以过去五个月的用户增长率计算,今年年底将正好达到5,000万。很显然,王建宙没有给出任何意外之喜,只是提供了可以做出的最保守估计,根本没有考虑中国移动正在加大3G网络促销力度,包括更多新型手机上市,以及根据协议很可能在年底推出基于TD-SCDMA网络的苹果iPhone手机。在坐拥这麽多有利条件的情况下,王建宙仍和年初一样,继续提5,000万这个显而易见很容易实现的目标,无意说明他到了该离开中国移动的时候了,需要让位于年富力强的一代公司领导上台,给公司带来一些新的成长动力。中国政府已经提拔了两位年轻一些的领导到中国移动担任要职,这是王建宙行将退休的最明确信号。当一切最终成真时候,定能受到股东的热烈欢迎。

一句话:中国移动董事长王建宙最近的保守言论凸显他尽早退休的必要性,将公司交予新一代更富进取心的领导。

Related postings 相关文章:

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台,尽管许多人猜测,易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争,但我们目前知道,至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻,不妨告诉你吧,这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商,近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎,并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作,我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟,谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持,而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会,不再提出批评意见,我想说,百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择,这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明,与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比,中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品,所以,或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名,事实上,我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功,百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作,中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单,证明易平台可靠且人性化,我认为,百度有50%的机率,占据移动平台市场较大份额,这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话:百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质,是其推广易平台的第一步,百度需要与更多大型手机商合作,才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆,寻求多元化

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场,研发时尚型PC

There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味,联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务,联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称,中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称,联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称,联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑,这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场;联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称,联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市,但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举,也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场,联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势,并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探,将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台,当前,苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争,将需要在这方面多做努力,不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人,至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务,我的感觉是“谁去关心它?”,联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争,但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业,联想应该对其敬而远之,聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话:联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要,是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步,但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

News Digest: September 6, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 6. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China Group Buy Sites Near 3,000, Top 10 All Losing Money (Chinese article)

◙ Alipay Acquires OnCard’s (Sydney: ONC) China Subsidiary (English article)

◙ LG Display (Seoul: 034220) CEO Confirms Work Delayed on 8.5 Gen China LCD Plant (Chinese article)

◙ Sino-Ocean (HKEx: 3377) and KKR Announce China Real Estate Investment Platform (Businesswire)

◙ Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) to Invest in a Venture Capital Fund (PRNewswire)

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统,并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足,我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅,也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过,我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到,政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务,公司需要迅速开发新业务,以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说,百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳,我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称,百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册,从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品,实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认,改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手,他甚至希望,一些低质量的用户能因此离去,从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统,百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O),谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面,百度似乎有些後知後觉,但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为,谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠,因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而,我还是不敢保证,百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话:百度主页改版,以及推出手机操作系统,是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试,两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆,寻求多元化

 

Beijing Sends Mixed EV Signals 中国应推进电动车基础设施建设和宣传

The central government was sending mixed signals about its future plans for electric vehicles (EVs) at an auto event over the weekend, on the one hand tightening current incentives for EV sales but at the same time saying it is studying more measures to boost the struggling program. What this tells me is that China’s ambitious program to put 1 million EVs on the road by 2015 is in a state of disarray, with few such vehicles on the road today despite lots of government talk. Let’s review the latest developments, which saw one Finance Ministry official at the event in Tianjin saying fuel efficiency standards were being raised for EVs to qualify for a government subsidy of 3,000 yuan per vehicle, meaning less cars will now qualify in the program. (English article) At the same time, other officials at the event said Beijing is studying other ways to boost the struggling EV sector through means like lowering taxes on vehicles and key components. My response to all this is that Beijing needs to step back and look at the real reason why China’s EV makers have made so little progress to date: a lack of infrastructure for vehicle charging and maintenance, and lack of an education campaign to tell the public about these vehicles and ease their concerns over operational and charging issues. If Beijing really wants this program to succeed, it should work with local governments to offer incentives for big names like PetroChina (HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857; NYSE: PTR) and Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP) to add charging stations to many of their urban traditional petrol stations. It should also join hands with EV makers like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) and create a national campaign to educate the public about their vehicles, including information on buying incentives, maintenance and charging, and the environmental advantages of such vehicles. Only through these kinds of coordinated, national efforts, led by Beijing working with local governments and industry, will China’s grand EV plans stand any chance of success.

Bottom line: China’s grand EV dreams are in a state of disarray, with stronger leadership needed from Beijing to foster infrastructure development and education.

中国政府在周末车展上对电动车发展计划发出不同的信号,一方面表示将收紧现有电动车销售刺激政策,另一方面却称,正在研究制定更多措施,促进电动车项目发展。我的感觉是,中国希望2015年有100万辆电动车上路的计划处于混乱状态,尽管政府一再谈论该项目,迄今国内鲜有电动车上路。回顾一下该项目的最新进展,中国财政部一名官员在天津车展上称,正在对享有政府补助资格的电动车提高节能标准,这意味着目前符合补贴标准的电动车将减少。政府对每辆电动车补贴3,000元。与此同时,另有官员在车展上称,政府正在研究包括对电动车和关键零部件减税在内的其它方案,以推动电动车产业发展。我的看法是,中国政府需要退後一步,审视一下中国电动车制造迄今进展缓慢的真正原因:缺少充电站和维修站等基础设施,面向公众的电动车宣传不够,未能缓解公众对电动车操作和充电问题的疑虑。如果中国政府确实希望电动车项目取得成功,就应该与地方政府一道,向中石油(601857.SS; 0857.HK; PTR.N)、中石化(0386.HK; SNP.N)等大公司提供补贴,在传统市内加油站基础上,增设充电站。政府还应与比亚迪(1211.HK)和上汽(600104.SS)等电动车制造商联手,在全国进行电动车宣传活动,让公众了解电动车购置补贴、维护和充电及环保等方面的信息。只有通过中央政府牵头,地方政府和行业在全国的配合,中国宏伟的电动车计划才有望成功。

一句话:中国电动车计划陷入混乱状态,应在中央政府带领下,推进基础设施建设和宣传教育活动。

Related postings 相关文章:

Hertz, GE Give Jolt to BYD Electric Cars 赫兹新项目为比亚迪“加油

BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

News Digest: September 3-5, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on Sept 3-5. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China Auto Sales Growth to Slow to About 5% in 2011, NDRC Researcher Says (English article)

◙ China’s Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) offers glimpse of new mobile OS (English article)

◙ Home Inns Motel 168 Acquisition Gets Anti-Trust Approval, Seen Closing by End Q3 (PRNewswire)

◙ ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Suspend Production at Peng Lai Field (Businesswire)

◙ Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) Launches Original Web Series (PRNewswire)

Ericsson, ZTE Spat May be Near Resolution 爱立信与中兴的官司尘埃落定?

Eight months after the news first broke, we’re finally getting a little more color on the potentially devastating lawsuit filed against telecoms equipment and cellphone maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) by global rival Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), and things don’t look as bad as they did initially. Few details were given when Ericsson filed the suit in Britain back in April, but the action had the potential to halt ZTE’s sales in major European markets. (previous post) ZTE fired back with a meaningless lawsuit filed in China a short time later, but both companies have been largely mute on the subject since then. But now Chinese media are reporting an Ericsson executive attending an event in Beijing made some brief remarks on the matter in response to a question, and it looks like this whole issue is simply a question of money. (English article) That’s quite an important distinction, as companies that file such lawsuits usually do so with one of two objectives in mind. Companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) usually file their IP lawsuits to force a competitor to stop making a product altogether. But in many other instances, which appears to be the case with Ericsson vs ZTE, the company filing suit simply wants another company to pay royalties by forcing the offending company to legally license its technology. If that’s the case here, then I would expect a resolution of this dispute in the near future. Of course, any new licensing deal will hurt ZTE, whose low costs are one of its chief advantages, by driving up those costs. But in the longer term, ZTE will be able to continue selling its products in Europe and elsewhere without interruption, and the company can return to competing against Ericsson in the marketplace rather than in the courtroom.

Bottom line: New remarks from Ericsson suggest its lawsuit against ZTE is all about licensing and money, and a resolution could soon be forthcoming.

从纠纷一开始到现在已有八个月之久,现在我们终于对此事有了多一些了解。电信设备商爱立信(ERICb.ST)此前在欧洲一纸诉状将中兴通讯(0763.HK; 000063.SZ)告上法庭,该诉讼看起来可能给中兴致命重创,不过目前状况看起来并没有当初那麽差。4月份,爱立信在英国起诉中兴通讯,外界对相关细节知之甚少。但诉讼有可能阻止中兴通讯在主要欧洲市场的销售。中兴通讯很快就予以回敬,在中国对爱立信提起诉讼。此後,两家公司在这个问题上双方基本沉默不语。但是中国媒体近期报导,一名在北京参加活动的爱立信高管在回答提问时此事做了简短的评论,看起来整个事情仅仅是钱的问题。这是一个非常重要的分界线。企业提起此类诉讼时,除了钱的目的外,往往希望一箭双雕。苹果(AAPL.O)等公司发起专利诉讼通常是为了迫使竞争对手停止产品生产。但更多情况下,一家企业提起诉讼通常是为了迫使另一家企业购买技术许可,支付专利费,爱立信与中兴通讯的纠纷似乎就属这种情况。如果事实确实如此,我预计近期两家公司应该就能解决纠纷。当然,任何新的许可协议都有损中兴通讯,因低成本是它的主要优势之一。但从长远一些来看,中兴通讯可以在欧洲等地继续产品销售工作,继续与爱立信同台竞争,而非仅仅局限于法庭之上。

一句话:爱立信高管最近的表态暗示,爱立信与中兴通讯的官司仅仅属于授权许可与钱的问题,纠纷不久应该就能尘埃落定。

Related postings 相关文章:

ZTE Pressures Ericsson With China Suit — NOT 中兴反诉爱立信

Huawei, ZTE Spat Heats Up 华为中兴之争升级

ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

Boring Games, Video Drain Drag Down Shanda

Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) has just reported some of its most unimpressive results ever, with a core video game business that looks like a zombie and an online video unit that looks even scarier. The bottom line is that Shanda saw its second-quarter profit plunge 95 percent amid stiff competition and few  compelling offerings in two of its core business, its online game unit operated by Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) and its struggling video sharing business operated by Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV). (results announcement) Shanda said its game business, accounting for about two-thirds of its total revenue, grew just 5 percent in the second quarter from the first, and was up only a slightly better 19 percent year on year. Meantime, Ku6, which has been in a state of near chaos since Shanda Chairman Chen Tianqiao forced out its chief executive earlier this year (previous post), posted a massive net loss of $21.6 million, double the loss from the previous quarter. (company announcement) Strangely enough, Shanda shares rose a bit after the results came out, but gave back the gains in after-hours trade. Perhaps people are excited about the company’s upcoming plans to spin off its online literature unit, Cloudary, which is the lone positive spot in the company’s portfolio of otherwise unimpressive business units. (previous post) Or perhaps they suspect that Ku6 could soon become a takeover target, as evidenced by the recent talk of nearly all the major players, including Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and most recently Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) wanting to get into the video space. (previous post) Regardless, Shanda to me still looks like a long-term dud, and will probably stay that way as long as Chen remains at the head of the company — in other words for a long time!

Bottom line: Shanda Interactive’s latest results reveal a company in need of new leadership.

Related postings 相关文章:

Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

China Makes Up Its Mind: Penalty Reform 中国终于下决心:改革惩罚制度

It’s quite a slow news day as we head into the final days of summer before the new school year begins, so I thought I’d dust off my “China Makes Up Its Mind” column with a discussion of much-needed reform of China’s penality system for companies that break the law. Not surprisingly, the calls for reform, while still somewhat muted, are coming in response to violations by a foreign company, in this case US oil giant ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), whose leaking oil wells are causing potentially devastating damage in the Bohai Bay off the coast of Shandong province. Under the current system, ConocoPhillips will face maximum fine of 200,000 yuan, or a mere $31,000, for this environmental nightmare that has caused much more damage to the environment and people’s livelihoods. (English article) Maximum penalties for other violations, such as y copyright violation, causing business disruptions and libel, are all also ridiculously low, effectively giving a green light for companies to engage in any of these practices with little fear of serious consequences. The reason for the lightweight penalties owes to the fact that most were created when nearly all companies were state-owned, so leaders in Beijing didn’t want to burden their own companies with big fines for bad business practices. But as private companies have multiplied, there are growing calls for reform, which is sorely needed to make sure that companies — both private and state-run — behave responsibly or face serious financial consequences. At this point it’s far from clear that Beijing has the will to make this kind of needed reform, as any higher penalties would not only affect private companies like ConocoPhillips, but also their state-run partners, in this case oil giant CNOOC (NYSE: CEO; HKEx: 883). But if China really wants to develop an orderly business environment that fosters healthy competition, it needs to move forward soon with such reform, and this Bohai Bay case may provide just the impetus to move forward on this front.

Bottom line: The ConocoPhillips oil spill in the Bohai Bay could finally prompt Beijing to overhaul its outdated penalty system that levels ridiculously low fines against companies that break the law.

NOTE: “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players.

暑假即将结束,新学年即将开始,近期新闻异常清淡。所以我就拍拍案上的灰尘,重新拾起了尘封了一段时间的“中国决心已定”系列专栏。今天就来讨论一下中国亟需的对企业违规违法的惩罚体制。毫无意外,近期的改革呼吁源于外企出事,虽然声音并不大。此次具体的案例就是康菲石油(COP.O)渤海湾漏油事件。基于现行惩罚制度,康菲带来如此严重的环境灾难,对民众生活造成如此影响,但最高只需缴纳20万元人民币罚金。此外,盗版等其他违法行为的惩罚也轻得令人难以置信,实际上是为企业的此类做法开绿灯。大棒高高举起轻轻落下的原因就在大多出事企业都是国企,政府不愿让自家企业背负重罚。但是随着私企的不断增多,惩罚体制改革呼声渐起。目前远不清楚北京是否有决心来推行此类迫切需要的改革。因为重罚是会罚到康菲等类私营企业,但也会累及它们的中方合作夥伴,在本案例中就是中海油(0883.HK; CEO.N)。但是如果中国确实希望发展健康有序的经营环境,就必须推动此类改革,而康菲渤海湾漏油事件可能正好帮了一把。

一句话:康菲渤海湾漏油事件可能终于促使北京下定决定,整顿过于落後、量刑过轻的企业违法惩罚机制。

Related postings 相关文章:

CNOOC Woes Spotlight Environmental Perils

Bohai Spill: A Slippery Mess for CNOOC 中海油的漏油危机

Qihoo Loses Yet Another Lawsuit, But No One Cares 奇虎败诉不足为戒