A prolonged sell-off seems to be driving the latest move by real estate services provider E-House (NYSE: EH), which has just announced a $50 million share repurchase program in a bid to bolster its sagging shares. (news release) Now I’ll be the first to admit I’m quite bearish on the China real estate market, with a correction of 20-30 percent likely in the next 12 months as Beijing tries to cool the overheated market. But I also think the correction will be relatively brief as Beijing will
quickly lower interest rates if things cool down too quickly. And regardless of a slowdown, real estate services firms like E-House will be less exposed to such a downturn since they derive most of their income from fees and not actual sales. All that said, E-House shares still trade at a relatively rich premium despite losing 50 percent of their value since October. Some of the high valuation is undoubtedly due to bearish analyst profit forecasts. Still, this company looks a bit oversold and could be a nice long-term play for those seeking exposure to Chinese real estate.
Bottom line: E-House should be able to weather a short real estate downturn with minimal pain, making it attractive for those who like China real estate.
在美国纽交所上市的房地产服务网站易居中国<EH.N>近来遭持续抛售,股价一路走低。易居中国刚刚宣布了5,000万美元的股票回购计划,意在提振股价。我必须承认,我对中国房地产短期前景持悲观态度,我认为在未来一年内,随着政府试图为房地产市场降温,房价可能出现20%-30%的向下修正。但我也相信,这种修正将是相对短暂的。一旦降温过快,北京将迅速降低利率。无 论市场放缓与否,像易居这样的服务商风险都较小,因为他们的收入大多来自於服务费用,而非买卖交易。尽管目前易居股价已经比去年10月的高点下跌了 50%,我认为其溢价仍较高。而高估值的原因之一当然是分析师对其获利预期乐观。所以,我认为,目前易居股票多少有些超卖,对於那些欲试水中国地产业的投 资者来说,不失为一个长期投资的良好选择。
一句话:易居中国应该能够相对安然地度过短期的房地产市场调整,其股票对於投资者来说还是有吸引力的。
first Web portals more than a decade ago. Sina has shown a recent knack for successfully getting into new areas such as real estate and blogging, and as China’s leading portal its also one of the most visited Web sites, guaranteeing it plenty of traffic. Given its strong record lately, I would bet on them to make an acquisition in the search space in the near future and pose the first serious challenge in years to industry heavyweight Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU).
This posting marks the official launch of “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players. This first post takes a look at Beijing’s latest push to consolidate its vast and highly fragmented cable TV industry. Noises coming from the regulator show it is making a renewed push in this direction, which is smart as it’s only through economies of scale that China can develop the kinds of high speed networks and good programming to compete with the West. The problem is, the regulator tried a similar a campaign around 5 years ago and failed miserably due to interference from local interests. There are some interesting reports coming out saying Shanxi province has already begun consolidating its networks, showing that maybe consolidation is possible, after all. (
thus a bit better, but I’m still giving Lenovo a good chance of success. The reason has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with sales channels. Apple and other tablet makers like Samsung (Seoul: 005930) may have superior products, but they just don’t have the reach in China of a company like Lenovo, whose sales channels extend all the way down to the smallest cities.
SAIC (Shanghai: 600104). Just a year after that launch,, the Sail, which sells for as little as $8000, has been selling like hotcakes in China and is even being exported in significant numbers to South America. (
Fourth-quarter results are out for two of China’s top three banks, and they paint decidedly different pictures for No. 3 lender Bank of China (Shanghai: 601988; HKEx: 3988) and No. 2 China Construction Bank (Shanghai: 6019399; HKEx: 939). First BOC, whose fourth-quarter