E-House: Don’t Sell the House Just Yet 易居:不要马上卖掉这栋楼

A prolonged sell-off seems to be driving the latest move by real estate services provider E-House (NYSE: EH), which has just announced a $50 million share repurchase program in a bid to bolster its sagging shares. (news release) Now I’ll be the first to admit I’m quite bearish on the China real estate market, with a correction of 20-30 percent likely in the next 12 months as Beijing tries to cool the overheated market. But I also think the correction will be relatively brief as Beijing will quickly lower interest rates if things cool down too quickly. And regardless of a slowdown, real estate services firms like E-House will be less exposed to such a downturn since they derive most of their income from fees and not actual sales. All that said, E-House shares still trade at a relatively rich premium despite losing 50 percent of their value since October. Some of the high valuation is undoubtedly due to bearish analyst profit forecasts. Still, this company looks a bit oversold and could be a nice long-term play for those seeking exposure to Chinese real estate.

Bottom line: E-House should be able to weather a short real estate downturn with minimal pain, making it attractive for those who like China real estate.

在美国纽交所上市的房地产服务网站易居中国<EH.N>近来遭持续抛售,股价一路走低。易居中国刚刚宣布了5,000万美元的股票回购计划,意在提振股价。我必须承认,我对中国房地产短期前景持悲观态度,我认为在未来一年内,随着政府试图为房地产市场降温,房价可能出现20%-30%的向下修正。但我也相信,这种修正将是相对短暂的。一旦降温过快,北京将迅速降低利率。无 论市场放缓与否,像易居这样的服务商风险都较小,因为他们的收入大多来自於服务费用,而非买卖交易。尽管目前易居股价已经比去年10月的高点下跌了 50%,我认为其溢价仍较高。而高估值的原因之一当然是分析师对其获利预期乐观。所以,我认为,目前易居股票多少有些超卖,对於那些欲试水中国地产业的投 资者来说,不失为一个长期投资的良好选择。

一句话:易居中国应该能够相对安然地度过短期的房地产市场调整,其股票对於投资者来说还是有吸引力的。

Sina Searches for Roots in Google Break 新浪与古歌断交,搜索自己的根

There’s plenty of chatter out there on the news that leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is cutting ties with Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) by no longer using Google’s search technology. (English article; Chinese article) On the surface, this move is really just the latest example of a Chinese company cutting such ties after Google’s own high-profile exit from China last year. But this also represents a golden opportunity for Sina to get back into search, which was one of its original businesses when it launched as one of China’s first Web portals more than a decade ago. Sina has shown a recent knack for successfully getting into new areas such as real estate and blogging, and as China’s leading portal its also one of the most visited Web sites, guaranteeing it plenty of traffic. Given its strong record lately, I would bet on them to make an acquisition in the search space in the near future and pose the first serious challenge in years to industry heavyweight Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU).

Bottom line: Sina’s break with Google represents a golden opportunity for it to return to the search business and challenge Baidu.

近期有关新浪<SINA.O>与谷歌<GOOG.O>交恶的传言不断,称新浪将不再使用後者的搜索技术。表 面上看,这不过是又一家中国公司在谷歌与中国政府高调冲突後断绝与谷歌的关系。但这对新浪来说,则是它重归搜索领域的绝好机会。毕竟,搜索是新浪在中国的 开山法宝之一。而且新浪近年来在拓展包括地产服务和微博等新业务方面显示了过人的能力。所以,我猜新浪将在不久的将来通过收购重新进军搜索领域,向行业老 大百度提出挑战。

一句话:新浪与谷歌停止合作,反而说明新浪有意重归搜索,挑战百度。

BYD: Jump-Starting Stalled Sales With Auto Finance 比亚迪:试水汽车金融

There’s an interesting bit of news coming from Warren Buffett-backed BYD (HKEx: 1211). It seems the Chinese carmaker, once a superstar but now struggling with stalling sales, has linked up with a US company that specializes in vehicle finance systems in an apparent move to jumpstart its growth by selling cars on credit to Chinese consumers. (English press release). This kind of move is clearly a gamble for BYD, which has plenty of experience making cars but little or none in vehicle finance, in a country where some 90 percent of people still pay for their cars with cash. But given Buffett’s strong background in finance, together with the facts that many analysts see strong growth ahead for vehicle financing in China and sharply slowing growth of the broader auto market, this one looks like a very worthwhile gamble for BYD and one that could help to put it back on the road to strong profit growth.

Bottom line: BYD’s move into vehicle finance looks like a smart one with good chances of success to jump-start its stalled growth.

一度举世瞩目的明星、近来却焦头烂额的比亚迪<1211.HK>,传出了新消息:它与一家专门开发汽车金融系统的美国公司合作,似乎有意通过向中国消费者提供信贷而刺激自己的汽车销量。这对比亚迪来说是一场豪赌:它造车经验丰富,搞汽车金融可丝毫不在行。在中国,九成的消费者还是现金全款购车。但比亚迪的”美国伯乐”巴菲特则是金融大师, 而且很多分析师对中国汽车金融业前景看好。在整体汽车市场大幅降温的情况下,比亚迪这一赌还是值得的,有希望让比亚迪重归高速增长的轨道。

一句话:比亚迪赌注汽车金融是聪明之举,有望重振增速。

News Digest: March 30, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 30. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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ZTE (HKEx: 763) to Deliver LTE TDD/FDD Dual-Mode Infrastructure Equipment to Hi3G (Businesswire)

E-House (NYSE: EJ) Announces Share Repurchase Program (PRNewswire)

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Expands Management Team (PRNewswire)

NetSol Technologies In New NFS(TM) Contract With BYD (HKEx: 1211) Auto Finance (Businesswire)

Daqo New Energy (NYSE: DQ) Breaks Group for Phase 2 of Xinjaing Polysilicon Project (Businesswire)

Evergrande (HKEx: 3333) Achieves Core Profit Increase of 18 Times in 2010 (PRNewswire)

Dow (NYSE: DOW) and Binhua (Shanghai: 601678) Sign MOU for New China Venture (Businesswire)

 

Baidu: Tidbits But Still No Search Alternatives 百度:干扰不断

There are a few tidbits coming from Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) Robin Li, who is down in Shenzhen attending an Internet conference along with the likes of Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) Pony Ma. Chinese media have been rattling nearly non-stop about Baidu’s ongoing dispute with Chinese authors, who are suing the company for copyright infringement (if this sounds familiar, it may be because Google is in the middle of a similar lawsuit). Now Li has told the Shenzhen conference that Baidu could get out of the book business altogether (Chinese article), in what would be a welcome move for something that’s become a major distraction without providing any major new revenue. In one other mini-development, local media are reporting that Baidu is considering buying a small English language search engine to improve its English search functions (English article). This seems like yet another distraction that Baidu doesn’t need, but I suppose it’s necessary to satisfy news-hungry investors who want some justification for the sky-high prices they’re paying for Baidu stock.

Bottom line: Baidu should get out of all business lines that put it at risk for copyright infringement lawsuits.

对於百度文库与多位中国作家的版权纠纷,李彦宏终於表态道歉,并且表示如果无法妥善解决,就考虑关掉百度文库。其实,百度文库非但没能带来真正的收入,反而已经成为一大干扰因素,关掉它倒是让各方皆大欢喜。另外,中国媒体报 道百度正考虑收购一家小型英文搜索引擎,以改善其英文搜索功能。这看起来又是一个没什麽实际效果的干扰因素,但百度为了向投资者证明自己奇高的股价,也许总要做些什麽吧。

一句话:百度应该迅速行动,砍掉一切可能产生版权纠纷风险的业务。

China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心:有线电视行业整合

This posting marks the official launch of “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players. This first post takes a look at Beijing’s latest push to consolidate its vast and highly fragmented cable TV industry. Noises coming from the regulator show it is making a renewed push in this direction, which is smart as it’s only through economies of scale that China can develop the kinds of high speed networks and good programming to compete with the West. The problem is, the regulator tried a similar a campaign around 5 years ago and failed miserably due to interference from local interests. There are some interesting reports coming out saying Shanxi province has already begun consolidating its networks, showing that maybe consolidation is possible, after all. (English article) Perhaps a province-by-province consolidation, followed by a national one, is  the right way to go this time. If it succeeded, such consolidation would benefit the likes of set-top box makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), while providing competition to companies like China Telecom (NYSE: CHT; HKEx: 728), which is trying to develop its own national digital TV network. Still, I’d give this latest effort just a 30-40 percent chance of success, again due to resistance from all the local interests.

Bottom line: China’s latest effort to consolidate its fragmented cable TV sector is likely to fail, benefiting competitors like China Telecom.

从今天起,我将推出一系列以”中国终於下定决心”为主体的迷你专栏,分析中国最新的宏观产业政策调整及其对业界公司的影响。今天先说有线电视这个大而不统的市场的整合。监管层传出的信号表明,北京有意推进有线电视业的整合。这是明智之举,因为只有充分发挥规模效益,中国才能建设高速、高质量的有线电视网络,与西方公司竞 争。但问题是,政府曾在5年前发起一场类似的运动,但由於地方保护势力的干扰,以惨败告终。近期有报导说,山西省已经开始整合其有线电视行业,看来整合并 非无望。也许逐省整合後再全国整合,才是成功之道。如果整合成功,对中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>等机顶盒生产企业将有助益。但对中国电 信<CHT.N><0728.HK>来说则意味着增加了竞争对手,因为中国电信正在自行建设全国性的数字电视网络。我认为,这场整合运动成功的可能性只有30%-40%毕竟,地方保护主义势力还是不可小觑。

一句话:中国政府主导的又一次有线电视业整合运动成功可能性不大,对中国电信来说倒是好事。

 

Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad:终於拿出了像样的东西

After several months of hype, Lenovo (HKEx: 992) is finally sharing with the world a few clues about how exactly it’s going to succeed with its new tablet PCs, which are already well behind most of the competition. After finally launching its first LePad this week, priced at an unimpressive 3,499 yuan, Lenovo tells the China Daily it will launch 2-3 more tablets this year, including a LePad 2 in the fourth quarter and one model aimed at enterprise customers. Lenovo seems to think that segmenting PCs is the way to go, unlike Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) one-size-fits-all approach. I personally think the Apple approach is more cost effective and thus a bit better, but I’m still giving Lenovo a good chance of success. The reason has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with sales channels. Apple and other tablet  makers like Samsung (Seoul: 005930) may have superior products, but they just don’t have the reach in China of a company like Lenovo, whose sales channels extend all the way down to the smallest cities.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s upcoming crop of LePads will succeed in China, but don’t look for the tablet PCs to win big market share anywhere else.

经过几个月的大张旗鼓造势後,联想终於向世界展示了自己的平板电脑利器”乐Pad”。但它的时机已经远远落後于多数竞争对手。乐Pad定价3,499元,没能给消费者带来惊喜。联想对《中国日报》表示,今年还将推出2-3款平板电脑,包括在第四季度推出的乐Pad2,以及面向企业用户的一款平板电脑。联想似乎采取了细分市场的战术,而非苹果<AAPL.O>的”一款产品打天下”。我个人认为苹果的办法成本效益比更高,但对联想仍旧看好。其实这跟产品的技术高低毫无关系,真正起决定性作用的是销售渠道。苹果和三星<005930.KS>也许产品过人,但在中国市场,他们的销售渠道和渗透程度远逊於联想。

一句话:联想姗姗来迟的乐Pad系列产品将在中国获得成功,但在中国市场以外没戏。

News Digest: March 29, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 29. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Sinopec (NYSE: SNP; HKEx: 386) to cut costs, expand overseas ops as refining profit drops (English article)

◙ LDK (NYSE: LDK) Starts Road Show for Poly Arm IPO (English article)

◙ David King to Succeed Amy Zhang as CFO of Suntech (NYSE: STP) (PRNewswire release)

◙ New Oriental (NYSE: EDU) to Report Third Quarter Financial Results on April 27 (PRNewswire release)

 

Honda, Guangzhou Auto Chase GM-SAIC 本田广汽“理念”将上市

There’s some interesting news coming out of the auto sector, where the Everus, the first car jointly developed by Honda (Tokyo: 7267) and Chinese partner Guangzhou Auto (HKEx: 2238) for the China market, has just begun rolling off production lines. The launch follows GM’s (NYSE: GM) huge success with its Chevy Sail, a car it developed for China with local partner SAIC (Shanghai: 600104). Just a year after that launch,, the Sail, which sells for as little as $8000, has been selling like hotcakes in China and is even being exported in significant numbers to South America. (English story) Honda and Guangzhou Auto must like what they see and are certainly looking to follow in GM’s footsteps. This approach, in my view, makes much more sense than some Chinese automakers, like Geely (HKEx: 165) and BAIC, who want to export to Western markets where the competition is fierce. Chinese automakers have the best chance for success when they do what they know best: making cheap cars for price-sensitive consumers in developing markets.

Bottom line: Honda and Guangzhou Auto’s new Everus, a car developed just for China, represents a smart step that will yield healthy rewards in the next 1-2 years.

本田汽车<7267.T>与其中国合作夥伴广汽集团<2238.HK>合作为中国市场开发的新车型”理念”刚刚下线。显然,这一车型瞄准的是通用<GM.N>与上汽<600104.SS>合作开发的雪佛兰赛欧。自从一年前上市以来,最低价格只有 8,000美元的赛欧在中国热销,甚至出口到南美等市场。看来,本田和广汽对赛欧的成功艳羡不已,希望以”理念”迎头赶上。在我看来,这种策略比吉利<0165.HK>和北汽等本土车企试图向竞争激烈的西方市场出口要聪明多了。中国汽车企业最拿手的、最容易成功的就是为发展中市场那些对价格敏感的消费者生产物美价廉的汽车。

一句话:本田与广汽推出”理念”是适应中国国情的聪明一步,在未来1-2年内将获得丰厚回报。

Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进,建行趋向保守

Fourth-quarter results are out for two of China’s top three banks, and they paint decidedly different pictures for No. 3 lender Bank of China (Shanghai: 601988; HKEx: 3988) and No. 2 China Construction Bank (Shanghai: 6019399; HKEx: 939). First BOC, whose fourth-quarter profit soared 33 percent. I’ve always been a bit wary about Chinese banks in general, and this huge jump — even as Beiijing is trying to rein in lending — shows that BOC is a bit addicted to doling out money in search of big returns, leaving itself highly exposed to the inevitable downturn set to come in the next 12 months. China Construction Bank’s profit, by comparison, rose a much more modest 18 percent, well below its full-year growth of 26 percent, showing it’s getting a bit more serious about bracing for the downturn. (Chinese report) If I were to choose between these two, the choice would be simple. CCB is  getting serious about preparing for the coming storm, while BOC doesn’t seem to even notice the growing clouds on the horizon.

Bottom line: Chinese banks aren’t a great buy in the current climate, but China Construction Bank, with its more conservative approach, offers a better bet than Bank of China.

中国第二和第三大银行–建行<601939.SS><0939.HK>和中行<601988.SS><3988.HK>都发布了2010年第四季度财报。先看中行,其第四季度利润上涨33%。我通常对中国的银行都心存忧虑。在中央政府试图收紧贷款的情况下,中行的利润仍能如此跃升,说明中行仍旧沉醉于大笔撒 钱换取高额回报的模式。面对未来12个月中国经济将不可避免放缓的大环境,中行风险大增。相对来说,建行第四季度例利润18%的增幅较为温和,远低於该行 全年利润上升26%的幅度。这显示建行对经济放缓准备更加充分。

一句话:在目前的经济环境下,中国的银行股并不适合买入。但建行已经未雨绸缪,采取比较保守的策略,与中行比起来,它显然更吸引人一些。

News Digest: March 28, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 28. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Contacts automatically blocked for many China MSN users (Chinese article)

◙ Sinopec 2010 Net Rises 14%, Curbed by State Anti-Inflation Efforts (English article)

◙ Bidding heats up for China Motel 168 operator (English article)

◙ Shanghai Petrochemical (HKEx: 338; NYSE: SHI; Shanghai: 600688) 2010 Annual Results (PR Newswire)