Bottom line: Bilibili and iQiyi are likely to price in the middle of their ranges and debut flat to up slightly when their IPO shares start trading this week in the US.
iQiyi, Bilibili set for weak debuts?
This week is shaping up as one of the busiest I can recall for New York IPOs by Chinese firms, with at least four major listings set to take place. The first of those sputtered out of the gate on Tuesday, with hotel operator Greentree (NYSE: GHG) dropping 7 percent in its trading debut after pricing weakly and slashing the size of its offering. That less-than-stellar showing comes just days after another non-tech offering fizzled with the new listing of education specialist Sunlands (NYSE: STG) late last week.
Those weak signals could bode poorly for the three more IPOs set to take place later this week, including a launch for online video sites Bilibili and iQiyi on Wednesday and Thursday, the latter of which could raise more than $2 billion. In between that pair will be another education firm, OneSmart, which is set to debut on Wednesday. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: iQiyi and Bilibili should price near the top of their higher IPO price ranges, as each benefits from strong investor sentiment fueled by their unique offerings and a potential new plan to concurrently list their shares in China.
iQiyi, Bilibili capitlize on strong positions in video
Anyone who was worried that a regulatory crackdown on fintechs late last year might dampen broader enthusiasm for Chinese stocks can relax. That’s my key takeaway from the latest headlines, which show that two non-fintech Internet firms are experiencing stronger-than-expected demand for their upcoming listings in New York.
Leading that charge is Baidu-backed (Nasdaq: BIDU) online video site iQiyi, which has sharply jacked up the fund-raising target for its proposed New York listing by a massive 80 percent, in what could well be the biggest such listing by a Chinese firm this year. At the same time, the smaller but similarly high-profile Bilibili has jacked up its own fund-raising target by a hefty 50 percent. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The resignation of Xunlei’s founder as CEO, even as he retains his chairman’s title, could indicate a sale is coming soon, with the most likely buyer as Xiaomi.
Big shifts happening in Xunlei boardroom
The incredible shriveling online video company Xunlei (Nasdaq: XNET) is making a tiny splash in the headlines as we head toward the weekend, with word that its founder is relinquishing his position as CEO. The move seems potentially significant, since one of the main obstacles that keeps more companies from being acquired in China is resistance by their founders to relinquish their “empires” to someone else.
In this case, Xunlei’s empire is rapidly vanishing, as it gets overtaken by larger rivals like Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) iQiyi and video services operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU). That may mean that no one really wants Xunlei anymore, including ordinary stock investors. The company’s shares have been on a downward trajectory since its Nasdaq IPO three years ago, and now trade at $3.24 apiece, about a quarter of their IPO price of $12. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Stellar earnings by Weibo and new funding for services from Toutiao and YY reflect the rapid rise in live broadcasting and short videos, in the latest boom for China’s internet that will end with a bust in around 2 years.
Live streaming sucks up big funds
A trio of stories in the headlines are nicely spotlighting the oh-so-typical Chinese pattern of industries that suddenly become hot, leading people to pump huge amounts of cash into them in a fight for market share. Internet watchers will probably guess that I’m talking about the recent crazes in live broadcasting and short videos , which have thrust three companies, YY (Nasdaq: YY), Toutiao and Weibo (Nasdaq: WB) all into the headlines.
Leading those headlines are the latest results from Weibo, whose profit has risen nearly 7-fold in its quarterly report, igniting a 25 percent rally for its already-inflated stock. The other two headlines have YY and Toutiao pumping big new funds into their live broadcasting and short video services, $70 million and $140 million to be exact, respectively. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A tussle that resulted in injuries to a Tencent worker by a Youku peer at an industry event reflects the big tensions that exist in China’s online video sector due to years of stiff competition that shows no signs of easing.
Wine glass incident reflects tensions in online video
Stiff competition in a wide range of online industries is pretty much par for the course in China, but a scuffle between employees of Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Youkuat an industry event is underscoring just how high tensions can get. This particular case won’t really mean much for either company beyond a few sensational headlines in the next few days, and perhaps some internal emails at both companies. But it does show how tough things are in the online video space, where everyone is looking for the elusive formula for profits.
This particular story looks quite similar to another one that happened in February, in which a video of brawling take-out deliverymen from rivals Meituan and Ele.me went viral. (English article) That particular story had a very blue-collar feel, since most of these deliverymen are migrants from the countryside with relatively low education and who tend to stay at their jobs for relatively short periods. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The closure of former Time Warner Chinese TV station CETV reflects the broader decline of traditional broadcasting worldwide, and also heavy restrictions on foreigners for operating video delivery channels in China.
CETV pulled from China airwaves
As Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) pursues a blockbuster merger deal with AT&T (NYSE: T) in the US, a much quieter story in China reflects the end of a frustrating chapter for the entertainment giant and many of its western peers that hoped to make a fortune in the world’s most populous market. That story has the relatively obscure Tom Group (HKEx: 2383) announcing the shuttering of its China Entertainment Television station, also known as CETV. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: LeEco’s new alliance with 6 car makers and rapid expansion of its sports programming unit look like shrewd moves to position itself as a major player in 2 big new growth areas.
LeEco in new car tie-up, fund raising
Following a relatively quiet period for one of China’s more talkative companies, online video leader LeEco (Shenzhen: 300104), formerly known as LeTV, is back in the headlines with 2 relatively large deals in the auto and sports sectors. The first has LeEco signing an alliance with some of China’s leading car makers, who have agreed to use its entertainment system in their vehicles. The second has LeEco’s sports unit raising 7 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) in its latest fund-raising round.
The pair of stories highlight 2 focus areas for LeEco, one of China’s oldest online video companies and the only one that has remained independent as others all got purchased by bigger Chinese Internet companies. LeEco is trying to move aggressively beyond its original area as an online video specialist by obtaining more exclusive content, and also by offering its products and services over the growing number of channels that consumers use to access entertainment and information. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Xunlei’s performance and stock price could come under pressure over the next year due to stiff competition in China’s consolidating online video market and lack of support from struggling strategic partner Xiaomi.
Xunlei swings to quarterly loss
As rumors swirl of a potential merger between the online video services of Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), smaller rival Xunlei (Nasdaq: XNET) has just announced its latest quarterly results that show why it may be difficult for the company to remain independent in the rapidly consolidating sector. Xunlei swung to a loss in the quarter and saw its revenue contract — hardly encouraging signs for a company that’s already quite a small player in China’s fiercely competitive online video market.
The big “elephant in the room” in this instance is struggling former smartphone sensation Xiaomi, which purchased 30 percent of Xunlei around the time of its 2014 IPO for a reported price of about $200 million. Xiaomi went on to form a content distribution service with Xunlei last summer, leading me to predict that it could make an offer to buy the company outright. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Sohu is likely to combine its online video service with Tencent’s in an ongoing consolidation of the Chinese sector, and the tie-up could presage a Tencent-backed privatization bid for Sohu later this year.
Sohu, Tencent in video merger?
More consolidation could be coming in China’s online video sector, with word that web portal Sohu(Nasdaq: SOHU) may soon sell a major stake in its video service to social networking giant Tencent (HKEx: 700). The move would follow a similar tie-up between this pair in the online search space, and might lead some to wonder if Tencent may even be preparing an eventual bid for Sohu itself. I’ll end the suspense on that matter by saying such a sale seems unlikely, for reasons I’ll explain later. But the pair could still ultimately do more deals together
This particular tie-up would mean that China’s online video sector is firmly consolidating around the country’s 3 biggest Internet companies and a handful of others. Leading search engine Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is closely associated with Qiyi.com, a leading player, while Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) last year purchased Youku Tudou, another leader. The other major player is LeEco (Shenzhen: 300104), formerly known as LeTV, and state-owned broadcasters in Shanghai and Hunan are also making big pushes into the space. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Chinese video- and entertainment-related companies will continue to attract big investments and valuations over the next year due to their strong growth potential, even as sentiment cools towards other new media companies.
Mango TV eyes major new funding
Investor sentiment may be rapidly cooling towards many Internet areas in China, but entertainment is one that still remains quite popular. That’s my latest read on the markets, following news of major new financing for 2 companies and a new Sino-foreign co-production deal in the hot video and movie-making sectors.
Up-and-coming online video operator Mango TV is at the center of the biggest news in terms of value, with media reporting it’s aiming to raise a hefty 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) in just its second funding round. Movie ticket booking app Weiying Shidai is in a smaller but still sizable fund-raising headline, with reports that it has just raised 1.5 billion yuan in its third funding round. Last but not least is word of a film co-production deal between local studio Huace (Shenzhen: 300133) and global giant Twenty-First Century Fox (Nasdaq: FOX). Read Full Post…
It’s a quiet day on China’s corporate news front, as many companies stay silent and hope that the latest sell-off on the nation’s stock exchanges calms as the week progresses. So in the absence of major news, I thought I’d look at the latest Hollywood tie-up involving Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU), and do some reading between the lines about what it means for the struggling online video company.
The thing that most caught my attention about this latest licensing deal between Youku Tudou and Paramount Pictures was how passe it seemed. Youku Tudou and its rivals were frequently making this kind of announcement a couple of years ago, when they were trying to secure premium content that web surfers would pay to watch on their sites. But nowadays such deals don’t seem like big news anymore, and instead companies are focused on creating their own exclusive content. Read Full Post…
