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Tencent latest Business & Financial news from Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese High Tech Market, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters)

Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

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Lashou, China’s top group buying site whose name literally means “join hands” in Chinese, is desperately shopping for an investment banking partner to underwrite an IPO in a sudden race against time among Chinese Web firms to go public before a looming Internet bubble bursts. At least that’s my interpretation of the latest media reports saying Lashou is racing to find new underwriters for the planned offering, after Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) resigned from the case. (English article; Chinese article) If this news sounds familiar to some of you, it’s because it is. Just last month, similar reports emerged that another leading group buying site, 55tuan, was abandoning plans for an IPO after several major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, refused to underwrite the listing over concerns about accounting records for some of its previous acquisitions. (previous post) A report issued earlier this week said the group buying space has exploded to 5,000 players this year from just 2,000 at the end of 2010 (previous post), as Chinese companies pile into the latest Internet trend in a bid to become the country’s next Groupon. The only problem is, even Groupon is struggling in the overheated China group buying market right now, laying off hundreds of employees in the last month from its troubled Gaopeng joint venture with leading Chinese Internet firm Tencent (HKEx: 700). (previous post) This new problem at Lashou is just the latest development on a list of signs of crisis in group buying that is growing so long I won’t even bother to repeat them here. But I predicted earlier this week (previous post) that group buying sites look set to become the first domino to fall in China’s dangerously overinflated Internet bubble, and this latest Lashou development just adds more fuel to that argument.

Bottom line: Lashou’s inability to find an underwriter for a planned US IPO is the latest sign of distress in China’s overheated group buying sector, which could enter a full-blown crisis by year end.

拉手网正拼命寻找一家可承销其首次公开募股(IPO)的投行夥伴，加入中国互联网企业争分夺秒赶在互联网泡沫破灭前上市的行列中。这至少是我对媒体报导的拉手网正急切寻找新的承销商助其上市的解读。此前，摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)退出了拉手网的IPO承销案。如果你们中有些人觉得这听着很耳熟，原因是这种新闻的确不陌生。上个月就有类似报导称，中国另一家主要的团购网站“窝窝团”放弃赴美上市，因包括高盛在内的多家投行因担心其之前的并购产生的会计问题而拒绝承销其IPO。本周早些时候的一篇报导称，中国国内今年的团购网站数量已经从2010年底的2,000家激增至5,000家，因中国企业纷纷涉足这个互联网新趋势，希望成为中国的下一个Groupon。唯一的问题是，Groupon自己还在中国过热的团购市场中自顾不暇，且上月对自己在中国的合资企业“高朋网”进行了大规模裁员。拉手网遭遇的这个新问题只是团购业种种危机迹象的最新发展。这种迹象有很多，所以我也不想在此反复赘述。但我本周早些时候曾预言，团购网站有望成为中国过热互联网泡沫中首个倒下的多米诺骨牌，拉手网的最新进展只是为这一断言增加了更多证据。

一句话：拉手网无法找到一个助其上市的承销商是中国过热的团购业出现瓶颈的最新迹象。中国的团购业或许在今年年底前陷入全面危机中。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？

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I’ve been writing for more than a month now about China’s looming Internet bubble, and a new domestic media report makes a good case that group buying sites may lead the way when this bubble bursts in the months ahead. (Chinese article) According to the report, China’s field of group buying sites has exploded in recent months, with some 5,000 such sites now operating versus just 2,000 at the end of last year. What’s more, an industry executive at one of the top sites, 55tuan, estimated that all of the top 10 players are now losing money, as they rapidly burn through hundreds of millions of dollars in cash raised earlier this year in pursuit of a very limited base of online Chinese shoppers. Those same consumers, with so many sites to choose from, are becoming more and more selective, forcing the sites to offer promotions that are ridiculously cheap and obviously money losing. Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between global leader Groupon and leading Chinese Internet company Tencent (HKEx: 700), has captured headlines for much of the last month with reports of its steady layoff of hundreds of employees around China. In July, 55tuan, which earlier this year raised $200 million funding, also reportedly had to abandon plans for an overseas IPO after several major Western investment banks turned it down over concerns about accounting records for many of the companies it has acquired over the last year. (previous article) And to add to the mess, signs emerged last month that Chinese tax authorities were preparing to crack down on the unruly sector, which officials believe could owe more than 500 million yuan, or about $77 million, in unpaid taxes. (previous post)  With all these warning signs flashing, it’s not hard to imagine that the group buying sector is probably already in a state of crisis with a major shakeout likely to begin by the end of the year, which could easily see the closure of at least one or two big players.

Bottom line: The group buying sector, which has seen explosive growth over the last year, is the most likely candidate to lead the bursting of China’s current Internet bubble.

一个多月以来，我写了多篇关于中国互联网泡沫的文章，一家国内媒体的最新报导与我形成了呼应。这篇报导称，团购网可能在未来几个月互联网泡沫破裂时率先倒下。这篇报导称，国内团购网站2010年年底达到2000多家，到2011年7月，这个数字变成了5000家。此外，窝窝团高管估计，现在前十大团购网站全部亏损，这些团购网迅速烧掉了今年稍早筹集的数亿美元现金，争夺仍非常有限的中国网上购物者。这些购物者因为有那麽多网站可以选择，现在已经变得越来越挑剔，迫使网站提供价格便宜得很可笑的促销，明显是赔钱。全球最大团购网站Groupon和中国互联网公司腾讯合资组建的高朋网，在上月多数时间里都是媒体高度关注的对象，该网在中国持续裁员数百名。7月有报导称，窝窝网因遭到几家主要欧美国家投行的拒绝，放弃了赴海外上市的计划，投行为其去年收购的很多公司的会计记录感到担忧。窝窝网今年稍早刚筹资2亿美元。此外，上月有迹象表明中国税务机关准备对团购网行业严加管理，官方估计的欠税额为5亿元人民币，或相当于7700万美元。这些令人警醒的信号已经出现，不难想象团购网站行业可能已经陷入危机，年底时很可能开始发生重大变化，你可能轻易就能发现至少一两家行业龙头关门。

一句话：团购网去年经历了爆炸式增长，很可能在当前中国互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

China Internet Bubble Sees Vancl Dressing Down 中国互联网泡沫见证凡客裁员

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It seems that group buying Internet site Gaopeng isn’t the only one laying off staff as China’s Internet bubble shows early signs of bursting. In the latest indication of trouble, Chinese media are reporting that Vancl, the high-flying online clothing seller, is in the process of cutting 5 percent of its workforce as management tries to “right-size” the company in the run-up to a probable fourth-quarter IPO. (Chinese article) Vancl’s CEO was understandably unwilling to comment on the reports, which cited a number of leaked company e-mails and word of mouth from lower-level company employees. But the reports seem to be credible, and would certainly not be surprising following similar signs of distress from Gaopeng, the Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700) invested group buying site now laying off big chunks of its staff, as well as social networking site and IPO candidate Kaixin, which last month warned that the days of rapid Internet growth may be over. (previous post) I have to admit that Vancl’s layoffs did surprise me a little, as just last month I speculated that clothing sellers, due to their more niche-oriented position, may be more immune to the looming Internet bubble than more broadly-focused companies such as group buying sites like Gaopeng and general merchandise sellers like 360Buy. (previous post) But at the end of the day, the bottom line is that China’s Internet space has become way too crowded and overheated, with billions of dollars in new investment entering the market in the last year chasing consumer demand that, while growing, is still far too small to support all those new players. Look for more layoffs in the next few months, as many of the smaller, revenue-poor companies seek to delay their inevitable closure or sale to larger rivals.

Bottom line: Vancl’s recent layoff of 5 percent of its workforce marks the latest chapter in the early stages of a burst for China’s overinflated Internet bubble, with much more to come.

中国互联网泡沫呈现初期破裂迹象，高朋网看来不是唯一一个裁员的团购网站。团购领域又现新麻烦，据中国媒体报导，服饰网络零售品牌凡客诚品正在裁员，规模大约有5%。管理层希望确保公司“合适规模”，以筹备四季度IPO计划。凡客CEO陈年不愿对裁员报导置评。相关文章主要引述了多封公司内部泄漏的邮件与公司低层员工的说法，内容看似可靠。美国团购网站Groupon与腾讯(0700.HK)联手投资的团购网站–高朋网之前已大举裁员，另外准备上市的社交网络开心网也在裁员。不得不承认，凡客裁员有些令我意外。因为就在上个月，我还估计相对于高朋、京东商城等市场定位宽泛的网站，服装零售商因为特殊市场定位，对于互联网泡沫的免疫力可能更好一些。但说到底，实际情况是中国互联网市场已经过于拥挤、投资过热，过去一年已经有数以十亿计美元新投资进入这一市场，押注中国网上购物需求将会大增。这一市场尽管在增长，但还是远远不够支撑那麽多新加入的企业。未来数月，随着很多低营收小企业竭力延迟关张或被对手吞食命运，应该还会出现更多企业跟着裁员。

一句话：凡客近来裁员5%，是中国过度膨胀的互联网泡沫初步破裂的最新事件，未来还会有更多企业跟进类似举措。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

 

Boring Games, Video Drain Drag Down Shanda

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Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) has just reported some of its most unimpressive results ever, with a core video game business that looks like a zombie and an online video unit that looks even scarier. The bottom line is that Shanda saw its second-quarter profit plunge 95 percent amid stiff competition and few  compelling offerings in two of its core business, its online game unit operated by Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) and its struggling video sharing business operated by Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV). (results announcement) Shanda said its game business, accounting for about two-thirds of its total revenue, grew just 5 percent in the second quarter from the first, and was up only a slightly better 19 percent year on year. Meantime, Ku6, which has been in a state of near chaos since Shanda Chairman Chen Tianqiao forced out its chief executive earlier this year (previous post), posted a massive net loss of $21.6 million, double the loss from the previous quarter. (company announcement) Strangely enough, Shanda shares rose a bit after the results came out, but gave back the gains in after-hours trade. Perhaps people are excited about the company’s upcoming plans to spin off its online literature unit, Cloudary, which is the lone positive spot in the company’s portfolio of otherwise unimpressive business units. (previous post) Or perhaps they suspect that Ku6 could soon become a takeover target, as evidenced by the recent talk of nearly all the major players, including Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and most recently Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) wanting to get into the video space. (previous post) Regardless, Shanda to me still looks like a long-term dud, and will probably stay that way as long as Chen remains at the head of the company — in other words for a long time!

Bottom line: Shanda Interactive’s latest results reveal a company in need of new leadership.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

◙ Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

◙ Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

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The unruly and ultra-competitive group buying space could soon add tax evasion to its growing list of woes, with a new report saying the turbulent sector may owe more than 500 million yuan, or $77 million, in unpaid taxes. (Chinese article) The report cites Analysys International, a fairly respected Internet research house, as the source of the report, but clearly this kind of figure came directly from tax officials or was derived using data they supplied, as there’s no way Analysys could get access to this kind of data from the companies themselves. As such, the report looks particularly worrisome for the already-turbulent sector, hinting at a pending crackdown by tax officials which could see the closure of many smaller players in a space which has seen explosive growth in the last two years. The sector already received a blow earlier this month when a leading player, 55tuan, was rebuffed in its search for a  Western investment bank to sponsor a planned New York IPO, after several banks it approached reportedly worried about the accounting of its numerous acquisitions over the last two years. (previous post) Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Groupon, has also been laying off hundreds of staff, leading many to question the company’s future. Three of the sector’s leading players, 55tuan, along with Lashou and Dianping, raised a collective $500 million combined earlier this year, as domestic and international investors clamored for a piece of a future Chinese Groupon. This latest wrinkle on the tax evasion front looks like a major clean-up could be coming soon, potentially hitting even some of the big players. Investors should watch for some interesting times ahead, as China’s overinflated Internet bubble looks set to burst in the not-too-distant future.

Bottom line: A new report on tax evasion by online group-buying sites is the latest sign that this unruly, ultra-competitive sector is due for a clean-up in the near future.

团购行业麻烦不断，或即将再添逃税一项。最新报导称，团购行业每年逃税或逾5亿元。媒体报导援引的是研究机构易观国际（Analysys International）的说法，但此类数据显然直接来自税务官员，或从他们提供的数据推测得出，因为易观国际无法从团购企业获得税务信息。所以，对于本来就很混乱的团购行业来说，这一报导尤其令人不安，预示着税务官员或将整顿团购行业，许多规模较小的团购企业或因此倒闭。过去两年，团购行业呈现爆发式增长。本月稍早窝窝团拟赴美上市，但其接触的各大投行均对其过去两年多起收购的会计问题表示担忧，因而拒绝为窝窝团融资。腾讯(0700.HK)和Groupon合资成立的高朋网也裁员数百人，令众人质疑该公司的未来。今年早些时候，由于国内外投资者希望在中国团购行业分得一杯羹，目前该领域的三大领先企业–窝窝团、拉手网和大众点评网共募集到5亿美元风险投资。这次团购逃税风波或预示行业整顿在即，甚至一些大型团购公司也可能受到冲击。投资者应关注这一前景，因为中国互联网泡沫似乎在不远的将来即将破灭。

一句话：有关团购网逃税的最新报导表明，这一混乱且竞争激烈的行业可能即将面临整顿。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

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After a few weeks of talk, leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has come out and told the world through a public filing that it now owns 9 percent of Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), in what looks to me like a potential prelude to a future takeover of the newly listed online video site. Sina disclosed that it first acquired a 4.2 percent stake in Tudou for $31.2 million at the time of its listing, and then swooped in a short time later after the company’s shares sank on its debut to boost its holdings to 9 percent for an additional $35.2 million investment. (English article) While Tudou founder and chairman Gary Wang insists the investment is purely financial, it looks to me like Sina is testing the waters for a potential future takeover of the company. Similar takeovers have proven difficult in the past as the founders of such takeover targets are often major stakeholders in their companies, often controlling a majority of shares with the ability to quash any approaches. But in this case, Wang only holds 8.6 percent of Tudou shares, and is clearly under continued pressure to raise cash, as evidenced by his determination to go ahead with this IPO despite negative market sentiment. Many will recall that Sina has a poor record with major M&A, failing to close its purchase of Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) several years ago and also fending off a hostile takeover bid by Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) before that. This Tudou purchase could be a more careful attempt to see how the markets react before making an outright offer for the company. Given the sudden interest in video sharing by nearly every major Internet company, including Tencent (HKEx: 700), which is reportedly in talks for a stake in industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) (previous post), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sina launch a takeover attempt for Tudou by the end of this year, with an aim to turning it into a profitable, well-run online video site.

Bottom line: Sina’s purchase of a 9 percent stake of Tudou looks like a prelude to a future attempt to take over the company, with an offer possible as soon as the end of this year.

经过数周洽谈，中国第一大门户网站新浪(SINA.O)通过一份向监管机构提交的报告对世界宣布，新浪目前已经持有中国第二大在线视频网站——土豆网(TUDO.O)大约9%的股份。我认为此举可能为新浪未来收购土豆网拉开序幕。新浪透露在土豆网上市期间，首先投资3,120万美元购得土豆4.2%股份，土豆上市首秀股价大跌後，又追加投资3,520万美元，持股份额增至9%。虽然土豆创始人兼董事长王微坚称新浪目的仅在投资，但在我看来，新浪应该是在试水，看未来是否有可能收购土豆。以往此类收购通常比较困难，因为收购目标的创始人往往拥有多数股权，可以抵挡可能的收购意向。但在土豆网一例中，王微持股仅占8.6%，而且显然仍有筹资压力，在市场情绪下如此消极仍然继续IPO就是明证。很多人都应该记得新浪在重大并购案例中表现都比较差，比如，多年前并购分众媒体(FMCN.O)的失败之举，在此之前，盛大互动(SNDA.O)还曾企图敌意竞购新浪。新浪此次如有意收购土豆，可能会更加细心谨慎，直接向土豆报价前先看市场如何反应。中国几乎每一家主要互联网企业均突然对视频分享网站感兴趣，其中包括近来传洽谈购优酷股份的腾讯在内。考虑到这层因素，我认为新浪今年年底前有可能发起对土豆网的收购，并努力实现土豆网扭亏为盈，运转良好。

一句话：新浪持有土豆网9%股份看起来是未来收购土豆的序幕，新浪今年年底前可能就开始对土豆展开收购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

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As I glanced over today’s headlines, I couldn’t help wondering what is going on with Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700), which is sending out mixed signals about its intent in the hot online video sharing space. A top company executive told Chinese media that Tencent has spent some 100 million yuan, or more than $15 million, in recent months to build up its video sharing infrastructure (English article), following word earlier this year that it had budgeted $100 million to enter a space dominated by industry leaders Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO). (previous post) That’s all fine and good, except that just two weeks ago reports emerged that Tencent was in talks to take an equity stake in Youku itself. (previous post) Tencent clearly wants to get into the video space, and I applaud this decision as online video fits in well with its demographic base, made up of young people, mostly 25 years old and younger, who are the main users for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service and online games. But it needs to make up its mind soon on which direction it will take, or end up spending lots of unnecessary cash and upsetting potential allies in the market, including members of a video alliance it helped to establish earlier this year. (previous post). My personal choice would be for a tie-up with Youku, preferably through a major equity stake, as this well-managed company is making lots of smart moves lately in its road to profitability, which could come by the end of the year. In the latest of those moves, the company announced a deal giving it first-of-its-kind online video rights to Dreamworks Animation’s (NYSE: DWA) “KungFu Panda” series, which has been hugely popular in China. That deal follows similar recent ones with Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) and Philips Electronics (Amsterdam: PHG) (previous post), and shows that Youku is clearly looking for a road to sustainable profits.

Bottom line: Tencent’s move into video is a smart one, catering to its demographic base, but it needs to quickly decide which path it will take, with a Youku equity tie-up looking most attractive.

我浏览了一下今天的头条新闻，不禁猜想腾讯(0700.HK)会有何动作，腾讯对其进军视频分享领域的意图发出不同信号。该公司一名高管告诉中国媒体，腾讯近几个月斥资约一亿元，打造视频分享基础设施，而今年早些时候有传言称，腾讯拨出预算1亿美元，进军优酷网(YOKU.N)和土豆网主导的视频分享领域。这些消息都还不错，除了两周前有报导称，腾讯正在谈判持股优酷网。腾讯显然想进入视频行业，我很赞赏这一决定，因为该服务与腾讯用户结构契合度很好，该公司的QQ即时通讯和在线游戏用户多为25岁以下的年轻人。但腾讯应尽快决定发展方向，以停止耗费大量不必要的资金，令潜在的市场盟友失望，包括今年稍早协助成立的视频版权联盟。我个人观点是腾讯应与优酷网结盟，最好是成为优酷网较大股东的方式，因为优酷网近期采取多项明智之举，年底前即有望实现盈利。优酷网最新举措是，宣布与美国梦工厂(DWA.O)签署《功夫熊猫》系列版权协议。此前，优酷还与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)和飞利浦(PHG.AS)签署类似协议，这表明，优酷显然正在探索持续盈利的途径。

一句话：腾讯进军视频业是明智之举，适合其较年轻的用户结构，但腾讯需迅速决定发展方向，以持股优酷网的方式与其结盟看似最具吸引力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ Tencent Takes Serious Shot at Video 腾讯重拳出击视频业务

News Digest: August 30, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 30. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) Profit Beats Estimates After GM, VW China Sales Climb (English article)

◙ Bank of America to Sell 13.1 Bln China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939) Shares (Businesswire)

◙ Youku (NYSE: YOKU), DreamWorks Animation In “Kungfu Panda” China Distribution Deal (PRNewswire)

◙ LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Reports Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

◙ Tencent (HKEx: 700) Video Invests Over RMB 100 Mln on Infrastructure (English article)

360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

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Perhaps I’m becoming a bit biased due to my belief that China is in the midst of an Internet bubble, but the latest word from online retailing giant 360Buy that it is cutting off Alibaba’s Alipay online payments service to me looks like the latest sign of a swollen China Internet sector under growing duress. As many will recall, 360Buy made headlines earlier this year when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion in new funding, a record for a private Chinese Internet company and just one of a large number of fundings of $100 million or more as both domestic and foreign investors piled onto the China Internet bandwagon. (previous post) One of the 360Buy investors, Russia’s Digital Sky Media, justified the massive investment by saying the company could be worth a staggering $10 billion — about triple the value of most of China’s biggest Internet firms excluding titans Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). So I find it a little surprising that 360Buy CEO Liu Qiangdong is citing Alipay’s annual costs of about 5-6 million yuan, or less than $1 million, as the reason behind is company’s decision to cut off the service. (Chinese article) I’m certainly not in favor of needlessly wasting money, but for a company that just raised $1.5 billion to say an annual expense of $1 million is too high, especially in a high-growth area like e-payments, sounds to me like 360Buy is coming under increasing pressure to slash costs as its new impatient investors push it to become profitable — something that may not happen soon due to fierce competition in China’s e-commerce market. This latest move by 360Buy, combined with recent massive layoffs by Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent, (previous post) are just the latest signs of China’s growing Internet bubble, which could start to burst in dramatic fashion in the next 6 months.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s termination of its agreement to offer Alipay e-payment services is the latest sign of a building Internet bubble in China.

也许我是有点偏见，我认为中国互联网正出现泡沫。不过从京东商城近日宣布停用支付宝来看，似乎确实印证中国互联网产业面临更大压力。许多人应该都还记得，京东商城今年早些时候获得海外15亿美元融资，京东商城投资方之一–俄罗斯投资公司DST当时大谈此宗投资的合理性，称京东商城价值高达100亿美元。因此现在京东CEO刘强东以“费率高”为由，宣布停止与支付宝合作，让我有点意外，毕竟京东每年付给支付宝的费用也就是500-600万元人民币，还不足100万美元。我当然不是主张不必要的浪费，但作为刚融资15亿美元的京东商城，说每年100万美元的电子支付费用太高，让人感觉似乎京东商城在降低成本方面压力加大，因为投资方要求其实现盈利，而这在眼下中国竞争激烈的电子商务市场来说很难。京东商城此举，加之高朋网裁员，都是中国互联网呈现泡沫的迹象，也许未来六个月中我们会看到泡沫开始戏剧性破灭。

一句话：京东商城停用支付宝，是中国互联网产业出现泡沫的最新迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

 

Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

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At first glance, video sharing site Youku’s (NYSE: YOKU) new announcement regarding the creation of a new video series together with Dutch electronics giant Philips (Amsterdam: PHG) looks like little more than PR, which led me to pay little attention when it landed in my email box. (company announcement) But closer inspection reveals a more innovative tie-up, which has Philips essentially paying for the creation of an exclusive new video series for Youku in exchange for sponsorship rights, much the way advertisers pay for traditional TV series with their advertising dollars. According to Youku, the first episode of the series, about a young designer trying to win back his girlfriend from a wealthy man, was viewed 2 million times in its first 24 hours — numbers that would make most TV channels envious. While I’m still not completely convinced about Youku’s long-term viability as a stand-alone online video provider, initiatives like this, which are costing it nothing and bringing in millions of viewers, look like a smart formula for success as the money-losing company seeks ways to turn a profit. This latest effort follows another Youku initiative back in June, when it became China’s first big portal to sign a licensing deal with a major Hollywood studio, in this case offering content from Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) to its premium subscribers. (pervious posting) These kind of initiatives are exactly the kind of thing that Youku and video- and music-sharing rivals like Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), Xunlei and even Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) need to be doing in order to ensure their long-term viability. Recent talk that Youku may be in talks with for an equity tie-up with China Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) (previous post) are making this company look like an even stronger bet to maintain its position as China’s leading online video site, and potentially even a profitable one in the near future!

Bottom line: Youku’s foray into sponsored video series looks like a good move with strong future potential as it weans itself from pirated content.

乍看起来，中国视频分享网站优酷(YOKU.N)与荷兰电子厂商飞利浦(PHG.AS)联合出品系列网络电影的新项目不过是公司公关而已，所以一开始邮箱里出现这条消息时，我并未在意。但是进一步的观察发现，其实这一合作还有着非常创新的一面：飞利浦其实通过出资为优酷创作独家网络电影，以换取赞助权。据优酷介绍，系列电影第一支短片《爱有多久》首映24小时内，点播量高达200万，这一数字足以让多数电视频道感到眼红。短片讲述一名年轻设计师如何从一名富翁手中赢回自己的女朋友。虽然我对优酷能否长期扮演在线视频提供者的角色还存有质疑，但此类创意举措，用不着优酷花钱，还能吸引数以百万计的观众，看起来像是优酷寻求扭亏为盈的“巧妙配方”。此前，优酷6月份宣布与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)合作，由优酷通过视频付费点播服务，向高端用户提供450部华纳影片，并成为第一家赢得好莱坞主流片商授权的中国大型门户网站。此类做法正是优酷、土豆(TUDO.O)、迅雷，甚至百度(BIDU.O)等类音乐与视频分享网站需要去做的事情，因为这样可以保证他们的长久生命力。而且最近还有传言称优酷可能正在与腾讯(0700.HK)洽谈股权合作事宜，似乎意味着优酷保持国内在线视频网站领头羊的机率更高，甚至有可能近期扭亏为盈。

一句话：优酷涉足有赞助的网络电影项目看似是明智之举，未来颇为看好，有助于其摆脱盗版内容。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

◙ Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

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Signs of turbulence continue in China’s cutthroat and overinflated Internet space, with worrisome news coming from Kaixin, China’s second biggest social networking site (SNS), as well as Gaopeng, the group buying site operated by Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700). First Gaopeng. Despite its denials that anything is amiss, Gaopeng has just laid off 400 employees across its various locations, in what looks like the biggest in a steady stream of cuts that have made headlines in the Chinese media in recent weeks. (Chinese article) The company is facing intense competition from at least three major rivals, Lashou, Dianping and 55tuan, which collectively raised $500 million in venture funding earlier this year (previous post) and are clearly engaging in a cutthroat grab for share in this market that is certainly lucrative but lacks the size to support so many major players. I suspect that Groupon started up Gaopeng early this year to give itself a “China story” to please US investors in the run-up to its upcoming IPO. But now that it sees how cutthroat the market is, it could easily shutter Gapeng before the offering in a bid to hide what are undoubtedly some ugly financials from investors from this struggling joint venture. Meantime, Kaixin, which lost a race earlier this year with Renren (NYSE: RENN) to become China’s first publicly listed SNS, has broken a months-long silence to address recent reports of massive subscriber losses. The company’s low-key founder Cheng Binghao held an unusual media briefing in which he said Kaixin’s previous explosive growth rate is slowing to a more realistic level, and added the days of heady growth for China’s Internet may be finished. (Chinese article) Cheng said the company now has 117 million registered users, just behind Renren’s 124 million, though I suspect many of those are inactive, which Cheng hinted is the case. With that kind of a slowing growth story and the current general market turbulence, along with the threat of a new SNS service from Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) (previous post), I wouldn’t look for Kaixin to move ahead with its IPO until it has a better story to tell, which would be next year at the earliest.

Bottom line: Downbeat reports surrounding Gaopeng and Kaixin reflect a China Internet market in turmoil, with consolidation and few new IPOs likely through the rest of the year.

中国互联网急剧扩张的混乱状况持续，开心网和高朋网接连传来令人担忧的消息。先是美国Groupon和腾讯联合在华经营的团购网站–高朋网。尽管公司否认运营出现状况，但高朋网在各地站点已裁员400人，似乎是逐步裁员规模最大的一次，近几周高朋网裁员成为中国媒体热门焦点。高朋网面临团购市场竞争加剧的局面，大的竞争对手至少包括三家：拉手网、大众点评网和窝窝团，上述三家公司今年早些时候共募集5亿美元风险投资，也正积极投入团购市场的激烈厮杀。团购市场利润确实可观，但规模不足以支持如此多的大型团购网站。我怀疑，Groupon今年稍早成立高朋网时，是想给自己创造一个“中国故事”，从而在其IPO筹备阶段取悦美国投资者。但鉴于中国团购市场竞争激烈的现状，Groupon或在IPO前轻而易举地关闭高朋网，避免投资者看到这一合资公司中难看的财报。今年早些时候，开心网在赴美上市赛跑中输给人人网(RENN.N)，未能成为第一家在美国上市的社交网站。开心网打破一个月来的沉默，回应近期有关开心网用户大量流失的报导。开心网低调的创始人程炳皓罕见举行媒体吹风会，称开心网爆发性增长期已经过去，增长放缓至一个更实际的水平，并称中国互联网强势增长的时代或已结束。程炳皓透露，开心网现有1.17亿注册用户，稍低于人人网的1.24亿人，但我怀疑，其中许多并非活跃用户，程炳皓的表态似乎暗示了这一点。鉴于开心网用户增长放缓，目前市场普遍混乱，再加上新浪(SINA.O)微博的威胁，我认为，除非开心网能有更好的故事，否则不会推进其IPO，估计最早也要到明年了。

一句话：有关高朋网和开心网的负面消息表明，中国互联网市场现状混乱，今年内或将进行调整，不太可能有新的IPO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降