Bottom line: iDreamSky’s finalized buyout offer marks the start of a new wave that will see more than a half dozen US-listed Chinese firms sign similar offers by the Lunar New Year, mostly at the same prices from original privatization deals announced last year.
iDreamSky finalizes buyout bid
The New Year is kicking off with a shot of deja vu, as a wave of companies that announced privatization bids in the first half of 2015 are now returning to investors with concrete offers. In the latest chapter of this two-part wave, mobile game operator iDreamSky (Nasdaq: DSKY) has just announced its signing of a formal deal to take the company private.
iDreamSky announced its original intent to privatize last June, at the height of a wave that saw about 3 dozen such de-listing bids proposed last year, mostly in the first half. The wave of announcements skidded to a halt in mid June when China’s stock markets underwent a massive correction after an even larger rally. But with China’s markets showing signs of stability, the de-listing movement has resumed. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Yirendai’s IPO could auger a wave of similar new listings by Chinese P2P lenders next year in Hong Kong and China, though few are likely to choose New York due to fading sentiment from US investors.
IPO fizzles for P2P lender Yirendai
What’s likely the be the final Chinese IPO in New York for 2015 has debuted with a very appropriate thud, capping a year that saw just a handful of companies make such new listings. The latest IPO by P2P lending platform operator Yirendai (NYSE: YRD) has a few noteworthy angles, led by a 9 percent drop in its trading debut on Wall Street at the end of last week.
The investor indifference to Yirendai nicely summarizes what has been a dismal year for new Chinese IPOs in New York, as investors worry about China’s slowing economy and also lose interest in these smaller companies whose longer term prospects are unclear. At the same time, Yirendai marks the first IPO for China’s young stable of P2P lenders, and is likely to be followed by more next year. This debut will hardly encourage those companies to go to New York, and many could instead look for friendlier sentiment in Hong Kong or even on one of China’s newer boards for high-growth, unprofitable companies. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China’s gaming market remains stubbornly fragmented and unprofitable despite its huge potential, with no clear signs of much-needed consolidation coming anytime soon.
Gamers continue to struggle
As much of China bakes under a summer heatwave, a major trade show this week in Shanghai is casting a different spotlight on the overheated state of the nation’s gaming industry. One report is saying that only 2 percent of companies in the emerging mobile gaming space can generate big profits, and the situation may not improve anytime soon due to a stubborn state of fragmentation.
The problem has led many of China’s US-listed gaming companies to launch privatization drives over the last 2 years, including Giant Interactive, a large but decidedly second-tier player that de-listed a year ago. Giant’s talkative chief Shi Yuzhu is blaming US investors for failing to appreciate his company, with the latest reports saying he thinks Chinese stock buyers will value his firm at more than 5 times what it was worth when it de-listed from New York. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The see-saw performance of iDreamSky shares after its buyout offer reflects a growing number of speculators in the market for US-listed China shares, while Legend’s Hong Kong IPO is likely to price and debut weakly.
iDreamSky gets buyout offer
As we head into the end of June, the first half of 2015 is set to set an unusual record of becoming the first such period to see a negative number of New York IPOs by Chinese companies. That fact is being driven by a record number of companies that have announced privatization plans, including the latest by mobile game developer iDreamSky (Nasdaq: DSKY). If this latest plan is successful, iDreamSky would also set a new record for shortest time ever as a New York-listed Chinese firm, since the company only made its IPO last August.
Meantime, one actual IPO that is moving forward is coming in Hong Kong, where Legend Holdings, parent of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992), has set a price range, date and chosen a ticker for its offering. This particular deal appears to be getting a ho-hum reception in Hong Kong, as most investors remain fixated on a rally across the Chinese border that has seen China’s domestic stock markets more than double over the last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: An ongoing wave of buyout offers for US-listed Chinese firms is being funded by speculative money that will quickly evaporate when China’s stock market rally fizzles, causing some deals to collapse when that happens.
Gamblers fund privatization wave
It’s a new day, which means it’s time to take a look at the latest US-listed Chinese companies receiving privatization offers from opportunistic investors looking for bargains. Today it’s data center operator 21Vianet (Nasdaq: VNET) and beleaguered social networking site (SNS) operator Renren (NYSE: RENN) that are headed for the exit door.
I’ve been writing about this recent flurry of privatizations for the last few months, which is quickly turning into a flood as investors scramble to assemble deals to buy companies whose shares have languished on Wall Street. The idea is that these companies would be far more appreciated, and therefore get much higher valuations, from investors in their home China market, where an ongoing stock market rally has seen the main Shanghai index more than double over the last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Mobile Games could be combined with Shanda Games if buyouts for the 2 companies succeed, followed by a re-listing in China that could gain strong interest from local investors.
China Mobile Games joins de-listing queue
The latest news that China Mobile Games (Nasdaq: CMGE) has received a buyout offer won’t surprise anyone, as it becomes the latest New York-listed Chinese Internet firm to receive such a bid due to its low valuation. What does come as a slight surprise is investor reaction to the bid, which saw China Mobile Games’ share price drop to well below the offer price. The could reflect some skepticism about the quality of this particular bid, which is coming from a Chinese securities brokerage.
This deal marks the latest in a long string of similar buyouts for US-listed Chinese firms whose shares have often languished in New York due to lack of interest from western investors who are unfamiliar with these names. Many of the companies are eying quick re-listings in their home China market, where they believe they can get valuations that are as much as double what they were worth in New York. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baozun’s IPO is likely to price in the middle of its range and debut flat despite its strong credentials, as waning sentiment towards Chinese Internet companies may prompt other recently listed names like Jumei to launch privatization bids.
Baozun IPO gets lukewarm response
Sentiment towards China-listed US firms continues to show signs of weakening, with word that e-commerce website designer Baozun has had to scale back its IPO in New York as its shares move closer to their trading debut. Meantime, shares have jumped over the last week for e-commerce firm Jumei International (NYSE: JMEI), amid talk that it may be considering a privatization bid to re-list back back in China.
Both stories reflect a recent trend that has seen a growing number of second-tier Chinese Internet companies abandon New York listings due to lack of investor interest. Many are believed to be eying re-listings in China, where their names are better known and companies of all types have achieved lofty valuations these days during a stock market surge that has seen shares double since a rally dating back to last summer. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Shares of Tencent and Alibaba are overvalued and will stagnate or fall for the rest of the year, while a group trying to buy out Sungy Mobile may have to raise its offer but should succeed in privatizing the company.
Froth builds on Tencent stock
It seems I was partly wrong when I previously said that e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) was quite expensive following its record-breaking IPO last year, and that its value would gradually sink to a level comparable with rival Tencent (HKEx: 700). In this case I wasn’t wrong in thinking the 2 companies should be comparably valued. Instead, I should have focused on the potential for a rally in Tencent shares, which have risen sharply to approach Alibaba’s level since the start of the year.
While those 2 companies look comfortably situated in the stratosphere of Internet valuations, the same can’t be said for mobile game operator Sungy Mobile (Nasdaq: GOMO), which has just announced its receipt of a management-led buyout offer. If the attempt succeeds, it would mean Sungy’s life as a publicly traded company could end after less than 2 years, the briefest for a listed Chinese company that I’ve ever seen. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The new purchase of 3 smaller rivals by Ourpalm could position the company as a consolidator for China’s fragmented gaming sector, and could be followed by one or more similar purchases in the next year.
Ourpalm buys 3 smaller rivals
A newly announced deal will see online game operator Ourpalm (Shenzhen: 300315) combine with 3 smaller rivals in a relatively large deal that could lay the foundation for a major new player to drive much-needed consolidation in the space. The new company looks interesting for a number of reasons, including Ourpalm’s existing connection with leading movie maker Huayi Bros, which could become an important strategic partner for the company.
Ourpalm could also become a strong platform to absorb some of the smaller Hong Kong- and New York-listed gaming companies that have struggled for investor attention due to stalling profit and revenue growth caused by their lack of scale. Potential players for future tie-ups could include recently listed Hong Kong players like Linekong (HKEx: 8267) and Forgame (HKEx: 484), or New York-listed Sungy Mobile (Nasdaq: GOMO), whose shares have all languished since their IPOs. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: New IPOs by Chinese tech firms will slow sharply next year, with profitable, sector-leading companies the most likely to make successful offerings.
Linekong finishes flat in banner year for IPOs
On this final day of 2014, I thought I’d take a look at the scorecard for high-tech IPOs this year, including how they’ve performed since their debuts and what we might expect for next year. It seems fitting to start the discussion with the final high-tech IPO of the year, which came with a flat trading debut on Tuesday for mobile gaming company Linekong (HKEx: 8267). That may sound bad, but it’s actually quite good for gaming stocks that have become investor pariahs over the last 2 years. Read Full Post…
In the absence of big company news so far this week, I’ve decided tolook at the scorecard for the flood of technology IPOs over the last 12 months and what it might say about what’s ahead into next year. The record so far looks quite good in general, especially for companies that made a flurry of New York offerings at the end of last year and whose shares have mostly doubled or more since then.
But one notable exception to the trend is mobile games, as 2 of the 3 major players to make recent listings are now squarely in negative territory. That doesn’t bode well for a 3 upcoming similar listings, 1 in New York and 2 in Hong Kong, which appear to be stalling due to the cool investor sentiment. Read Full Post…
