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Telecoms stalwart China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and up-and-comer Xiaomi are creating new buzz in the sector these last few days, as speculation builds that the former may be near a long-awaited deal with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to finally offer the iPhone on its network. Meantime, Xiaomi is making headlines with word that it expects its revenue to double this year, following a strong reception for Hongmi, its latest smartphone that retails for just 799 yuan or about $130. Read Full Post…
After disappearing from the headlines for a few months, venture-funded smartphone maker Xiaomi is popping back into the news with mixed signals about its plans for a new low-end model. I’ve often said that Xiaomi’s marketing-savvy co-founder Lei Jun sees his company as China’s version of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), since many of the company’s product development and sales tactics look similar to the US tech giant’s. This latest plan for a new low-cost smartphone called Hongmi, or “Red Rice”, seems to follow that pattern, since buzz has been building for a while that Apple may also be preparing to launch a more affordable version of its premium iPhone. Read Full Post…
A day after we saw the latest sign that Lenovo (HKEx: 992) was pursuing a major purchase in the US, we’re getting news of another smaller deal by China’s leading PC maker with word of a new smartphone tie-up with faded Japanese brand NEC (HKEx: 6701). Whereas I quite like the US deal that would see Lenovo buy the low-end server business of IBM (HKEx: IBM), this smaller deal with NEC looks more like Lenovo’s older pattern of buying up dying global brands with little or no real value. Read Full Post…
I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.
Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.
百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。
一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度
◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度
◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化
Leading Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has finally discovered a winning formula, beating market expectations with a profit that doubled in its latest fiscal quarter on the back of strong sales in its core emerging markets business. (company announcement) Unfortunately for Lenovo, however, it has discovered the formula just a little too late, underscoring its record for late arrivals to new product areas and boding poorly for its future. The company boasted that six years after its landmark purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) struggling PC business, it has finally managed to turn that unit around and posted a $77 million profit for its developed markets business in the quarter ended June 30. But it was less boastful about the fact that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), in a much shorter period, has come from nowhere to overtake it in terms of revenue in its home China market, which accounts for about half of Lenovo’s sales. (previous post) The company was also more muted on its recently launched smartphone and tablet PC offerings, the LePhone and LePad, which are clearly two important products of the future as people move away from traditional laptops and desktop models towards lighter, more mobile computing. According to calculations in one Chinese meida report, the company has sold just over 700,000 LePhones in the last 3 quarters in China (Chinese article), and the company itself admitted to an anemic 80,000 LePads sold in the latest quarter. (English article) That compares with Apple’s estimated 1 million iPads sold in China in the latest quarter alone, although obviously Apple has a head start there. Still, considering Lenovo’s weak performance for these key new products in its own home market, where it has numerous advantages over Apple, its latest seemingly strong results point to strong headwinds in the future, both at home and abroad.
Bottom line: Lenovo’s strong profit in its latest quarterly results masks serious weakness in the key future growth areas of smartphones and tablet PCs.
中国电脑巨头联想(0992.HK)终于发现了制胜法宝，公布其季度净利超乎预期地增长一倍，这主要得益于其核心的新兴市场业务强劲。但不幸的是，联想发现这个法宝的时机有点太晚了，正如联想在进军新产品领域方面常常都会晚一步，这对未来可不是个好兆头。联想收购IBM个人电脑(PC)业务已六年，终于已扭亏为盈，在截至6月30日的会计年度，联想成熟市场业务贡献了7,700万美元的利润，但这与苹果相比就不值一提了。苹果在比这短得多的时间里，在中国市场几乎从零开始，在该市场销售已经超过联想。此外，联想最近推出的智能手机和平板电脑，市场反响平平，而这两个产品代表着未来发展方向。据中国媒体报导，联想在过去三个季度中乐Phone销量仅略超出70万支，而联想也表示上季乐Pad仅卖出8万台。与之形成鲜明对比的是，单是上季苹果iPad在中国销量就达到100万台，当然苹果在平板电脑市场是占了先机的。中国是联想的本土市场，本应享有天时地利，其新产品表现却远远不及苹果，因此尽管其最新季度财报貌似强劲，未来不管在国内市场，还是国际市场，都还面临沉重压力。
一句话：联想最新季度获利强劲，但千万别忽略其在智能手机和平板电脑领域的薄弱表现。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹
What a difference a couple of years makes. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), a tiny player in China as little as two years ago, has suddenly become a new dominant force in both China’s computing and cellphone scene, taking on traditional market leaders Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V.HE) in their respective spaces. The US maker of wildly popular iPhone cellphones and iPad tablet PCs officially surpassed Lenovo in terms of total China sales in the quarter through June (English article), while it also picked up share on Nokia, whose China sales plunged 41 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner (English article). At this point, Apple looks nearly unstoppable in China, with companies scrambling to import more iPads to meet ever-growing demand and the country’s leading mobile carrier, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) on the cusp of signing a landmark deal to offer iPhones in China that will run on its 3G network. The pirates have been making iPhone and iPad look-alikes for a while now, and even retailers are getting in on the action with a recent headline-making knock-off Apple store opening up in southwestern Yunnan province. (English article) Apple’s sudden surge in China, the world’s biggest cellphone market by subscribers and the second biggest PC market, must be coming as a shock to both Lenovo and Nokia, neither of which has strong offerings in the smartphone or tablet PC space to fend off the attack. If Apple continues to surge, which seems likely, look for Nokia and especially Lenovo to see their China business start to weaken in the next 1-2 years as each looks on powerlessly at China’s new fascination with this innovative US tech giant.
Bottom line: Apple’s sudden surge in China will spell headaches in the next 1-2 years for Lenovo and Nokia, which each lack strong offerings to counter popular iPhones and iPads.
真是三十年河东三十年河西！两年前在中国还势单力薄的苹果公司(AAPL.O: 行情)突然间成了中国电脑和手机行业新的主导力量，向传统的市场领头羊联想(0992.HK: 行情)和诺基亚(NOK1V.HE: 行情)分别发起了挑战。截至六月份的第二季度，苹果在华电脑总销量正式超过联想，同时还夺取了诺基亚的市场份额。据市场研究公司Gartner的数据，诺基亚2011年第一季度在中国的销量骤降41%。目前，苹果在中国的发展势如破竹，各大公司竞相争取进口更多的iPad，以满足中国不断增加的需求。中国移动(0941.HK: 行情)(CHL.N: 行情)接近签署一项具有里程碑意义的协议，在华引进使用其3G网络的iPhone手机。而盗版厂商们则一直在生产与iPhone和iPad酷似的电子产品，就连零售商也加入了“山寨”行列，云南昆明的“高仿真”苹果零售店就是典型案例。苹果在中国的突然崛起无疑令联想和诺基亚深为震惊，而後两者在智能手机和平板电脑领域均无强势产品可以进行反击。如果苹果继续高歌奋进，且这一趋势似乎也很有可能，诺基亚，尤其是联想未来1-2年在中国的业务肯定会缩水，因两者面对中国人对苹果产品的迷恋却无能为力。
一句话：苹果在中国的突然崛起会在未来1-2年内让联想和诺基亚头疼不已，因後两者均缺少可以抗衡iPhone和iPad的强势产品。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动
◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场
◙ Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好
