Tag Archives: Morgan Stanley

Lashou Ropes in Small Potatoes For US IPO 拉手网聘二流承销商赴美上市

Turmoil and discord continue to plague the online group buying space, with industry leader Lashou taking a dubious step in its struggle to make an IPO before the market collapses by hiring a couple of second-tier investment banks to underwrite the offering. Reuters is reporting the company has hired leading Chinese investment bank CICC and top Japanese investment bank Nomura to lead the New York offering to raise $100-$200 million (Chinese article). The hire  comes after Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) abruptly resigned from the case last month due to concerns over accounting records at some of Lashou’s recent acquisitions, and after another leading group buying site, 55tuan, reportedly failed to find an underwriter for its planned IPO for similar reasons. (previous post) I applaud Lashou for its tenacity in making an IPO; but it’s also painfully apparent the company had to resort to CICC and Nomura after the first-tier US and European investment banks all shunned the deal. Neither CICC  nor Nomura has particularly strong ties to US investors, which means that Lashou’s IPO, if it really goes ahead, will face an uphill battle attracting investors to this offer from a sector in crisis. The turmoil first surfaced earlier this year when Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between US group buying pioneer Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700) launched mass layoffs. Groupon.cn, a China competitor unrelated to US-based Groupon, has also reportedly laid off many employees (Chinese article); and 55tuan itself has also started some layoffs, though the company has denied gossipy reports that it was laying off up to 70 percent of its staff. (English article) A sector in so much turmoil will hardly be attractive to US investors, who are already wary of Chinese companies due to several recent high-profile accounting scandals. That said, and considering the weakness of Nomura and CICC in this space, I would look for Lashou’s IPO to price at the low end of its range and ultimately raise less than the minimum $100 million it is targeting, as investors avoid this highly problematic offering — if it even makes it to market at all.

Bottom line: Lashou’s upcoming New York IPO is likely to attract little or no investor demand due to weak underwriters and turmoil in China’s ultra-competition group buying space.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

◙ 55tuan Layoff Rumors Mark Latest Group Buying Distress Call 传窝窝团大裁员 团购业前景黯淡

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒?

55tuan Layoff Rumors Mark Latest Group Buying Distress Call 传窝窝团大裁员 团购业前景黯淡

I’m usually reluctant to report on rumors, but a posting on Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo late yesterday that group buying giant 55tuan was launching massive layoffs seemed too big to ignore, reflecting troubles at both the company and in the money-losing group buying space. Sina itself followed up on the Weibo post by contacting the  poster, who reiterated that 55tuan had cut 22 of the 31 people in the local markets division where he works, or about 70 percent of the division. (Chinese article) I suspect we’ll see domestic media follow up on this rumor today, and clearly you can’t extrapolate big cuts in a small regional division to an entire company. But at the very least, assuming this worker is really from 55tuan, this kind of a big cut in a single division probably points to major adjustments being made at 55tuan, which in July had to abandon plans for a US IPO after several investment banks refused to handle the deal over concerns about accounting records at some of its recently acquired assets. (previous post) Rival Lashou, China’s biggest group buying site, was racing to find an investment bank for its own IPO earlier this month, after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reportedly resigned from the case over similar concerns. (previous post) Both 55tuan and Lashou raised $100 million or more earlier this year amid a boom in China’s group buying sector that resulted in fierce competition, drawing the field of money-losing players deeper into the red. The layoffs at 55tuan, if true, would be the most significant in the sector so far, following major cuts at Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between US giant Groupon and China Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) earlier this year. Investors look unlikely to pour more funds into these money-losing companies anytime soon, which means that unless they can raise money some other way most are likely to go into a “cash preservation” mode by implementing severe spending cuts including layoffs and reduced marketing activities. When that happens, look for a ripple effect to hit other web firms like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina, that rely heavily on ad revenues for their income.

Bottom line: Rumors of layoffs at group buying site 55tuan, if true, would mark the most significant sign to date of distress in the overheated sector, which is poised for a major shake-up.

我通常不愿探讨传言,但昨晚新浪(SINA.O)微博上称窝窝团将大规模裁员,这则消息实在不容忽视,它反映了该公司以及整个团购行业面临的困境。新浪後来与微博作者取得联系,对方称其曾在窝窝团工作的部门大幅裁员。我估计今天国内媒体会就此追踪报导,当然我们不能基于一个部门的裁员来推测整个公司。但我们至少可以这麽想,若一个部门大幅裁员,可能意味着公司正进行重大调整。窝窝团此前曾打算赴美上市,後来因多家投行对其收购的一些资产的会计记录存在顾虑,拒绝接手其上市事宜,导致窝窝团7月放弃赴美上市。另一团购网站–拉手网本月早些时候也苦苦寻找投行安排上市事宜,此前摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)出于类似顾虑,退出拉手网上市案。今年早些时候,中国团购业如火如荼之际,窝窝团和拉手网均曾筹资至少1亿美元,但後来行业竞争加剧,团购网站亏损严重。如果窝窝团大幅裁员消息属实,则将是高朋网今年大规模裁员後,团购业最轰动事件。短期内投资者不太可能再向这些亏损公司投入更多资金,这意味着它们除非能有别的筹资渠道,否则就不得不保存现金,通过裁员和减少营销活动等途径削减支出。一旦出现这样的局面,势必波及百度(BIDU.O)和新浪等严重依赖广告收入的网络公司。

一句话:窝窝团裁员传言若属实,则是团购业陷入困境的最明确信号,意味着该行业将出现重大调整。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒?

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

 

Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

Lashou, China’s top group buying site whose name literally means “join hands” in Chinese, is desperately shopping for an investment banking partner to underwrite an IPO in a sudden race against time among Chinese Web firms to go public before a looming Internet bubble bursts. At least that’s my interpretation of the latest media reports saying Lashou is racing to find new underwriters for the planned offering, after Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) resigned from the case. (English article; Chinese article) If this news sounds familiar to some of you, it’s because it is. Just last month, similar reports emerged that another leading group buying site, 55tuan, was abandoning plans for an IPO after several major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, refused to underwrite the listing over concerns about accounting records for some of its previous acquisitions. (previous post) A report issued earlier this week said the group buying space has exploded to 5,000 players this year from just 2,000 at the end of 2010 (previous post), as Chinese companies pile into the latest Internet trend in a bid to become the country’s next Groupon. The only problem is, even Groupon is struggling in the overheated China group buying market right now, laying off hundreds of employees in the last month from its troubled Gaopeng joint venture with leading Chinese Internet firm Tencent (HKEx: 700). (previous post) This new problem at Lashou is just the latest development on a list of signs of crisis in group buying that is growing so long I won’t even bother to repeat them here. But I predicted earlier this week (previous post) that group buying sites look set to become the first domino to fall in China’s dangerously overinflated Internet bubble, and this latest Lashou development just adds more fuel to that argument.

Bottom line: Lashou’s inability to find an underwriter for a planned US IPO is the latest sign of distress in China’s overheated group buying sector, which could enter a full-blown crisis by year end.

拉手网正拼命寻找一家可承销其首次公开募股(IPO)的投行夥伴,加入中国互联网企业争分夺秒赶在互联网泡沫破灭前上市的行列中。这至少是我对媒体报导的拉手网正急切寻找新的承销商助其上市的解读。此前,摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)退出了拉手网的IPO承销案。如果你们中有些人觉得这听着很耳熟,原因是这种新闻的确不陌生。上个月就有类似报导称,中国另一家主要的团购网站“窝窝团”放弃赴美上市,因包括高盛在内的多家投行因担心其之前的并购产生的会计问题而拒绝承销其IPO。本周早些时候的一篇报导称,中国国内今年的团购网站数量已经从2010年底的2,000家激增至5,000家,因中国企业纷纷涉足这个互联网新趋势,希望成为中国的下一个Groupon。唯一的问题是,Groupon自己还在中国过热的团购市场中自顾不暇,且上月对自己在中国的合资企业“高朋网”进行了大规模裁员。拉手网遭遇的这个新问题只是团购业种种危机迹象的最新发展。这种迹象有很多,所以我也不想在此反复赘述。但我本周早些时候曾预言,团购网站有望成为中国过热互联网泡沫中首个倒下的多米诺骨牌,拉手网的最新进展只是为这一断言增加了更多证据。

一句话:拉手网无法找到一个助其上市的承销商是中国过热的团购业出现瓶颈的最新迹象。中国的团购业或许在今年年底前陷入全面危机中。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒?

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即