Tag Archives: 中国公司股票新闻， China company stock news

360Buy IPO: Let the Delays Begin 京东商城放缓IPO进程

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Just a week after leaking out word that it was accelerating plans for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion, leading online merchant 360Buy is waking up to the reality that perhaps nobody wants to buy into its shaky story, with Chinese media reporting the company has decided to slow down the ambitious offering. (Chinese article) Does this come as a surprise to me or anyone else who’s been watching the rapidly chilling market for Chinese IPOs in the US? Any regular readers will know the answer to this question is a definite “no”, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this IPO shelved indefinitely until 360Buy either runs out of cash or market sentiment improves significantly, which in all likelihood won’t happen until late next year. The latest reports, citing people in the investment banking community, cleverly point out that 360Buy wasn’t even planning an IPO until the second quarter of next year anyway, after those same sources got the market buzzing last week by saying the selection of underwriters was underway, implying the blockbuster offering could come as soon as the end of this year. (previous post) Now those investment banking sources are saying that 360Buy is further delaying the process due to “less than perfect” financials, an obvious reference to the fact that the company has yet to turn a profit and previously predicted it wouldn’t even break even until 2012. With the current rampant competition in China’s e-commerce market, I wouldn’t be surprised if 360Buy, which also goes by the name Jingdong Mall and whose investors include Russian Facebook backer Digital Sky Technologies, has to delay its break-even forecast by another year, meaning it won’t be able to show any meaningful profits until 2014 at the earliest. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this offering delayed until 2013 or even later and for far less than $5 billion, assuming the company is still in business at that point after China’s looming Internet bubble bursts.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s clumsy attempt to test the market for a blockbuster IPO has met with little or no interest, forcing it to delay the deal to to 2013 or later.

仅在一周前，京东商城透露称将加速赴美上市融资50亿美元的计划，但或许是意识到没人买账的现实，据中国媒体报导称，京东商城已决定放缓IPO进程。对于我和其他关注中国企业赴美上市热潮迅速降温的人来说，感到惊讶吗？一直关注我的专栏的读者都知道，答案绝对是否定的。除非京东商城资金链断裂或市场环境明显改善（在明年下半年前都不太可能发生），否则京东商城无限期搁置IPO计划，我一定都不会感到惊讶。近期报导援引投行人士的说法巧妙指出，京东商城甚至不打算在明年第二季度前进行IPO。上述消息人士上周称，京东商城正在选择承销商，暗示其最早今年底将进行IPO，此话引发市场骚动。这些投行消息人士现在却说，京东商城因财务不完善，将进一步推迟IPO时间，明显是指京东商城尚未盈利的事实，先前有人预计，甚至到2012年，京东商城可能都无法实现收支平衡。鉴于中国电子商务市场竞争激烈的现状，如果京东商城将盈利时间点再推迟一年，即最早2014年才有望实现大幅盈利，我不会对此感到惊讶。如果确实如此，我认为，假如中国互联网泡沫破裂後，京东商城还在运营的话，该公司IPO将推迟到2013年或之後进行，融资规模也将远远小于50亿美元，

一句话：京东商城以大规模IPO计划，笨拙试探市场，但感兴趣者寥寥无几，迫使其推迟IPO计划至2013年或之後。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

 

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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After a few weeks of relative quiet for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in China, there’s new buzz in the telecoms sector that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is set to start offering the iPhone 5 in October, ending months of speculation about the move. (Chinese article) The Chinese media reports are a bit unclear about whether the smallest of China’s 3 telcos has actually signed a deal with Apple, only saying China Telecom will offer the iPhone 5 starting in October and that vendors are already placing orders for the popular smartphone. That does seem to imply that the two sides have signed a deal, although I would expect an official announcement from China Telecom if that was the case, as clearly this is news it would want to publicize as part of its aggressive drive to build up its fledgling 3G business. Regardless of the actual situation, it does appear that China Telecom will start to offer iPhone service plans by October or November at the latest, which should give it a brief momentum boost over its two chief rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHT) as the 3 jostle for share in China’s 2-year-old 3G market. I use the word “brief” because China Telecom will probably only have a 2 or 3 months to bask in its new iPhone deal before China Mobile announces a bigger new deal to offer an iPhone that can work on its own 3G network, based on a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-SCDMA. (previous post) Such a deal has been rumored for months and appears to be near, which should help China Mobile take back some of the momentum it has lost over the last 2 years to China Telecom and Unicom, which already offers the iPhone. Of course, the winner in all this will be Apple itself, which will be able to use all 3 of China’s telcos to offer its iPhones that enjoy huge popularity in China — the world’s largest mobile market with more than 900 million subscribers. But among the carriers themselves, look for China Telecom to enjoy some momentum through the end of this year, which it will rapidly lose in 2012 after China Mobile signs its own iPhone deal.

Bottom line: China Telecom’s imminent deal with Apple to offer iPhones for its 3G network will give it new momentum over its rivals that will last through the end of the year.

围绕苹果(AAPL.O)的消息在中国刚相对平静了几周，通信业内又传出中国电信(0728.HK)(CHA.N)将于10月率先在中国推出iPhone 5的消息，结束此前几个月的坊间猜测。中国媒体称，还不清楚中国电信是否已经确实与苹果签订了有关协议，只是说中国电信将从10月开始提供iPhone 5， 经销商已经下单采购。这看似意味着双方已经签约，不过我预计若确有此事，中国电信会发布正式公告。这明显是中国电信想对外散布消息，也是希望推广其3G业务努力的一部分。无论实际情况如何，中国电信看似确实要在10月或最晚11月开始推出iPhone服务计划。这无疑在中国电信在3G领域挑战中国联通和中国移动过程中，带来短时的提振。我说“短时”是因为中国电信可能只会赢得两三个月的时间，享有拓展iPhone业务的领跑优势，随後中国移动可能会宣布更大规模基于其3G标准–TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone推广计划。关于中移动的传闻已经有几个月，现在似乎已经快要接近现实了，这将帮助中移动收复过去两年流失到中国电信和中国联通的部分失地。无疑，苹果将是上述竞争的最终获益者，能够利用中国全部三家电信公司的渠道售卖iPhone，而苹果的iPhone产品在拥有逾九亿用户的全球第一大移动通讯市场享有极高人气。但是，从各家中国电信运营商来看，中国电信在年底前会享受些许成长助力，在明年中国移动签约自己的iPhone之後，中国电信在这方面的优势将迅速消退。

一句话：中国电信即将签约苹果，提供用于其自身3G网络的iPhone业务启动在即，将在移动通讯市场竞争中获得新的动能，但好光景也许只能维持到年底。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

US Solar Probe: Get Ready for China Bashing 美国太阳能调查：炮轰中国大潮的前奏

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The Republican-controlled House of Representatives has seized on a scandal surrounding a bankrupt US solar panel maker for some new political theater, which means we can probably expect to see a new round of China bashing in the run-up to next year’s presidential election. So what’s happening here? According to media reports, US solar panel maker Solyndra could default on a $528 million loan guaranteed by the US government following its recent bankruptcy filing, forcing the government to repay the loan. (English article) While this appears to be a purely US matter, since both the company and loan are US-based, an investigation in the House of Representatives is likely to explore WHY the US firm went bankrupt as part of a Republican-led show designed to embarrass the Democrats. When that happens, executives from Solyndra and other struggling US solar panel makers, many of which have also gone bankrupt in recent months, will undoubtedly tell Congress about the unfair competition they face from big Chinese names like Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which receive huge support from the Chinese government in the form of subsidies and preferential loans, in addition to their natural advantage of low labor costs. When that happens, look for House Republicans to take at least some symbolic action, such as proposing punitive tariffs for Chinese-made solar cells, to show they are being tough on China in the run-up to next year’s elections. Of course, none of their plans will ever succeed since the Democrats still control the Senate and the presidency. But that kind of reality hasn’t stopped the Republicans since they gained control of the House last year, and all the talk and negative publicity could cause an already battered field of US-listed Chinese solar firms to see their shares sink even lower.

Bottom line: Chinese solar panel makers are likely to become targets in an upcoming round of political theater in Washington, further pressuring their already-battered shares.

美国太阳能面板生产商Solyndra破产，众议院借题发挥，也就是说走向明年总统大选前，我们可能又要看到一轮炮轰中国的热潮。到底是什麽情况？据媒体报导，Solyndra近日申请破产後，公司的5.28亿美元政府担保贷款可能发生违约，迫使政府出面还款。虽然此事看似美国内务，因无论当事企业还是贷款都是发生在美国境内，但众议院调查可能会清查Solyndra为何破产。众议院由共和党控制，调查旨在让民主党难堪。一旦调查展开，Solindra与美国其他苦苦挣扎的太阳能企业必定向国会大倒苦水，抱怨面临尚德(STP.N)、天合光能(TSL.N)与英利(YGE.N)等中国太阳能大企如何进行不公平竞争。中国政府通过补贴与优惠贷款等形式向这些企业提供巨大支持，而且公司本身还有劳动力成本低的天然优势。如果出现这种情况，预计众议院内的共和党人至少会采取象征性行动，诸如提议对中国制造的太阳能电池板徵收惩罚性关税，以在大选日益临近之际彰显他们对中国的强硬态度。当然，他们的提案根本行不会获得通过，因为民主党仍控制参议院与白宫。但这并不妨碍共和党去采取行动力，一切的争论与负面宣传可能导致在美上市的中国太阳能题材股进一步下跌。

一句话：华盛顿新一轮政治博弈越来越近，中国太阳能面板制造商可能不幸沦为博弈目标，进一步压低相关企业的股价。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

◙ Suntech: Separating Good Solar from Bad

◙ LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

DreamWorks Dreams of China With New JV

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The draw of China, with its legions of viewers who can’t get enough of Hollywood movies and TV shows, has seduced DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA), which is preparing to set up a joint venture to make films just for the Chinese market. Western media are reporting the animation arm of the studio founded by Steven Spielberg and Jeffrey Katzenberg has hired a recruitment firm to staff up a production operation in China, though additional details of the plan were thin. (English article) If true, this would mark the second big move in China for DreamWorks, which just last month signed a distribution agreement with leading online video Website Youku (NYSE: YOKU) (English article), and is part of a broader trend that has seen the major Hollywood studios take a recent new interest in the China market as demand for legal content grows. DreamWorks’ two moves would follow the phenomenal success of its latest “Kung Fu Panda” film, which broke the box office record for an animated feature in China, partly due to its Chinese theme that appealed to local audiences. DreamWorks wouldn’t be the first to set up a filmed entertainment joint venture with an eye to earning big bucks in China. Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) was quite bullish on the market when it established a similar joint venture a while back, but had difficulty competing with the pirates who made its films available on bootleg discs usually within days of their theatrical releases. What’s different here is that while Warner was going for a smaller slice of the Chinese market with lower-budget films, DreamWorks has shown with “Kung Fu Panda” that it can make blockbusters that can do well enough at the box office to support their big budgets. The latest “Kung Fu Panda” earned nearly $100 million at the Chinese box office this summer, proving the market is growing fast and could easily justify a made-for-China title with a budget of up to $20-$30 million. Given its expertise at making popular animated films and China’s growing fondness for such films, I would say DreamWorks’ China dream looks like more than just a fantasy, with a very good chance for big success.

Bottom line: DreamWorks’ plans for a China animation joint venture looks like good business for this animation specialist, drawing on Chinese viewers’ fondness for slick Hollywood blockbusters.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

 

 

Latest Google Move: Gearing Up For China Return? 谷歌最新动向：打回中国市场？

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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.

Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.

谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。

一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google Map Impasse Resolved With New JV 谷歌地图风波解决

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Google’s China Map Crisis Near Resolution 谷歌中国地图争端接近解决

PPLive, Phoenix Video Initiatives Offer News Alternative 凤凰新媒体与PPLive的新尝试

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Two of China’s up-and-coming Internet firms, video sharing site PPLive and new media site Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) are getting bold in their bid to attract more viewers by offering news and current affairs programs in a quiet but clear challenge to Beijing’s state-run media establishment. In the most recent development, Chinese media are reporting that PPLive, one of the country’s hottest video sites and a frequently mentioned IPO candidate, has formed a tie-up with Xinhuanet, the online arm of the state-run Xinhua news agency, to create a joint venture to produce short news segments for streaming online. (English article; Chinese article) That news comes just a week after Phoenix New Media said it has launched its own online current affairs program (company announcement) on its online site. Both initiatives are part of a broader trend that has also seen video sharing leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) also announce development of its own original programming in recent weeks. (previous post) This latest gamble looks very calculated and is also a smart move by both PPLive and Phoenix, both seeking to top demand for interesting alternatives from viewers tired of watching the same old state-sponsored newsspeak on TV. By choosing the well-connected Xinhua as its partner, PPLive should avoid angering Beijing too much, even as it explores interesting new formats and topics that central propaganda officials might consider inappropriate for mainstream TV. Likewise, Phoenix New Media is also well connected to propaganda officials through its parent, Phoenix Satellite Television (HKEx: 2008), which operates the only privately-owned and quite successful news channel in China. If one or both of these initiatives succeed, which seems likely, look for others like Youku and even Web portals like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) to follow with similar news video offerings in the months ahead.

Bottom line: New online video news shows by PPLive and Phoenix New Media look like smart moves with a good chance of success, aimed at Chinese consumers looking for more news alternatives.

两家後起的中国互联网公司新秀——视频分享网站PPLive和新媒体网站凤凰新媒体(FENG.N)为吸引更多观众，作风可谓大胆。他们通过提供新闻和时事节目向官方媒体发起了无声但明确的挑战。最近有中国媒体报导称，PPLive计划与新华网络电视台合作成立一家合资公司，制作新闻短片。此前一周，凤凰新媒体表示，公司已在其网站上推出了在线时事节目。视频分享网站优酷网(YOKU.O)最近几周也推出了其原创节目。这些最新举动看起来是精心策划，PPLive和凤凰新媒体的举动也颇为明智，两者都在寻求满足观众多样化的观看需求。PPLive在探索寻找宣传部门可能不适宜主流电视媒体的有趣新模式和话题，与人脉广大的新华社合作，应避免过份激怒中国政府。同样，凤凰新媒体通过凤凰卫视(2008.HK)也与宣传部门的官员保持着良好的关系。如果这些想法获得成功，目前看来成功机会也很大，优酷甚至新浪(SINA.O)、搜狐(SOHU.O)等门户网站也有望在未来数月提供类似的新闻视频节目。

一句话：PPLive和凤凰新媒体提供的新型在线视频新闻看来是明智之举，且成功机率很大，因中国消费者正寻找更多类型的新闻节目。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim

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While it has largely faded from the headlines, the clean-up of US-listed China stocks is preparing to claim its second major victim in the form of AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC), a seller and leaser of vehicles in central China’s Hebei province. After giving a heads-up that it had failed to file its annual report on time earlier this year, the company announced it has been notified by the Nasdaq that its shares will be delisted for what clearly looks like the kind of accounting issues that have created a broader confidence crisis in US-listed Chinese stocks. (company announcement) News of the pending delisting later this month, which AutoChina says it will appeal, sent the company’s shares down 40 percent in the latest New York trading day. After the fall, AutoChina had a market value of just under $300 million, down sharply from as high as $800 million as recently as April. If the company is delisted, it would become the second biggest US-listed China company to fall from grace, following the even more spectacular fall of Longtop Financial earlier this year, which wiped out more than $1 billion in market value. (previous post) Others smaller companies that have recently been delisted include China Agritech (Nasdaq: CAGC) and China Biotics (Nasdaq: CHBT), as part of the US securities regulator’s clean-up of an unruly group of US-listed China companies whose sometimes creative accounting methods have cast a shadow over the entire sector. Even if AutoChina successfully appeals the delisting, which looks unlikely, it would most likely face a raft of shareholder lawsuits that would ultimately force it to leave the US markets. With AutoChina’s fate apparently sealed, I’d look for at least one or two more major similar cases before the crisis is done. CDC Software (Nasdaq: CDCS), which also announced in July it had failed to file its annual report on time, could be the next big victim. (previous post)

Bottom line: AutoChina has become the second big victim in the clean-up of questionable US-listed China stocks, with at least one or two more big victims likely before the clean-up ends.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

◙ Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

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New signals coming from Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Taiwan smartphone maker HTC (Taipei: 2498) indicate that both are strongly considering bids in the upcoming auction of Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) PC business, which also happens to include its much smaller smartphone unit. But whereas HTC’s potential bid looks smart, Lenovo’s apparent position needs some serious rethinking. Let’s start with the simpler case of HTC, whose early bet on smartphones has made it an overnight sensation, propelling it past a struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) earlier this year in terms of market value. (previous post) New comments from HTC’s chairman indicate the company may try to acquire its own smartphone operating system (OS), following Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) recent plan to buy Motorola’s (NYSE: MMI) cellphone business which has upset companies like HTC that use Google’s Android OS. (Chinese article) A very obvious candidate for HTC would be HP’s smartphone OS, which HP acquired last year when it purchased smartphone pioneer Palm. Industry watchers know that Palm’s OS is generally well regarded but has failed to gain much momentum due to lack of a strong promoter. Now let’s look at Lenovo, whose talkative Chairman Liu Chuanzhi has said he aims to become the world’s second largest PC seller by the end of this year, displacing both Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Acer (Taipei: 2353). (Chinese article) This kind of bullish comment, typical of Liu, is just the latest indication that he plans to make a bid for HP’s PC business in the near future. I previously advised that such a bid would be a bad move due to the complexity of such a deal (previous post) and I still think such a bid would be difficult for Lenovo at best, and a disaster at worst. Instead, Lenovo should also focus on HP’s smartphone business, which would be much easier to digest and has big potential to complement its existing cellphone and PC businesses. Some will remember that Lenovo previously launched a bid for Palm last year that ultimately failed, and it should seriously consider making another try as HP prepares to sell its PC and cellphone assets.

Bottom line: A bidding war could be brewing for HP’s smartphone assets following recent comments from HTC, with Lenovo possibly joining the hunt.

联想(0992.HK)和HTC(2498.TW)都发出最新信号，暗示有强烈意愿收购惠普(HPQ.N)将拍卖的个人电脑业务。惠普拟出售的资产碰巧也包括规模较小的智能手机业务。HTC的收购意向似乎是明智的选择，但是联想却需要对自己的立场再认真考虑一番。让我们先看看情况较简单的HTC。此前HTC押注智能手机曾经轰动一时，促使其市值今年稍早超越深陷挣扎的诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)。HTC董事长最近的讲话暗示，该公司可能尝试通过收购拥有自己的智能手机操作系统。此前谷歌(GOOG.O)宣布计划收购摩托罗拉的手机业务，令HTC等使用谷歌安卓系统的公司感到不安。惠普去年收购Palm从而获得自己的智能手机操作系统，这对HTC明显是个不错的选择。行业观察人士都知道，Palm的操作系统获得较高认可，但因缺乏强劲的推动者，没有获得太多成长势头。接下来再看看联想。联想集团董事局主席柳传志曾表示，打算今年年底前成为全球第二大个人电脑销售商，战胜戴尔(DELL.O)和宏基(2353.TW)。此番言论暗示，他计划在近期竞购惠普的个人电脑业务。我此前曾说过，出于对交易复杂性的考虑，我认为这个收购计划对联想不是个好主意。我仍然认为，从好的方面来说这宗交易对联想很困难，最坏结果则是一场灾难。相反，联想应该聚焦惠普的智能手机业务，这更容易消化吸收，也更有可能对其现有的手机和个人电脑业务构成补充。有人会记得联想去年曾发起对Palm的收购，最终以失败告终。在这次惠普出售个人电脑和手机资产的当口，联想对作出再次尝试应该三思而後行。

一句话：HTC高管最近讲话之後，针对惠普手机资产的一场竞购战可能正在酝酿之中，联想可能参加竞购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

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Yihaodian, the online merchant that made headlines earlier this year when it got an investment from global retail giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (previous post) looks like the latest company to show signs of distress in China’s growing Internet bubble, following a report that gives it a surprisingly low valuation. According to the report, which cites an unnamed industry source, Wal-Mart, which bought an unspecified stake in the online retailer earlier this year, recently bought another 20 percent for a relatively modest $65 million. (English article) Some simple math will show this puts Yihaodian’s value at about $325 million if the report is correct. The same report cites Yihaodian’s chairman saying reports that Wal-Mart will take over the company are incorrect and that the size of the stake purchase is incorrect as well. But even if the numbers are slightly off, this market valuation for what is presumably an up-and-coming online retailer looks tiny compared to numbers being mentioned for other e-commerce firms, most notably an estimated $10 billion valuation given earlier this year by investors in 360Buy, China’s second biggest online merchant which is now hiring an investment bank for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion. (previous post) I realize that Yihaodian is much smaller than both 360Buy as well as leading online retailer Taobao Mall, owned by Alibaba Group. Still, this $325 million valuation looks like a real bargain for Wal-Mart, and no doubt represents an attempt by the worried seller of the stake, in this case Yihaodian’s controlling shareholder Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shenzhen: 601318), to get back some of its investment before China’s Internet bubble bursts. As the Internet bubble swells and starts to pop, look for more of these sales at bargain prices as investors try to recoup some of their investments before it’s too late.

Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s purchase of 20 percent of online retailer Yihaodian for a bargain price will be followed by similar sales, as investors try to recoup their money before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

Message to Saab: Don’t Count on China 萨博不应指望中国注资

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It was an action-filled weekend for dying Swedish carmaker Saab, which begged for more time to secure a cash infusion from China even as its unions called for it to file for bankruptcy. (English article) My message to the Saab is this: if you’re counting on the Chinese to save you, then you can probably start writing your own obituary. I know that probably sounds harsh, but this particular case is strikingly similar to another case that ultimately ended with the demise of the muscular but obsolete Hummer brand in the US a couple of years ago. Let’s review the facts: Saab is in standby-mode while it waits for two potential saviors, little-known Chinese vehicle companies Zhejiang Youngman and Pangda Automobile, to get Chinese government approval to throw the Swedish automaker a lifeline in the form of a 245 million euro investment. (English article) The deal sounds remarkably similar to Hummer’s situation in 2009, which saw it find a Chinese savior in the form of a little-known Chinese industrial equipment maker, Tengzhong, only to see the deal collapse when it failed to win central government approval. In both cases, relatively unknown Chinese firms with little or no experience running an overseas operation have tried to step up and save a small, dying Western brand. The Chinese regulator, the National Development and Reform Commission, never gave an official explanation for vetoing the Tengzhong-Hummer deal in 2009. But in my view it rightly realized that even an experienced car maker would have a very difficult time resuscitating Hummer, and a company like Tengzhong stood about a zero percent chance of success. There’s no reason to think the NDRC won’t correctly feel the same way with this Youngman-Pangda-Saab deal, despite optimistic words from the Chinese investors over the weekend. So unless Saab finds an alternate investos, which looks unlikely, its future prospects are in serious trouble.

Bottom line: A potential lifeline to Saab from two Chinese firms will get vetoed by the government, forcing the dying Swedish automaker into bankruptcy.

瑞典汽车制造商萨博危在旦夕，尽管瑞典两大工会呼吁其申请破产，萨博仍希望争取到更多时间，以从中国得到注资。我想告诉萨博的是：如果指望中国搭救，那很可能是自掘坟墓。我知道这听起来很刺耳，但这和两年前的一幕极为相似，四川腾中重工收购悍马品牌，最终以失败收场。让我们看一下现状：萨博处于“待机”模式，坐等浙江青年莲花汽车和庞大汽贸集团搭救，期待这两家并不知名的中国公司能获得中国监管部门批准，向其注资2.45亿欧元。这笔交易听起来很像2009年悍马的境遇，当时腾中重工收购悍马未能获批。在这两笔交易中，都是相对不知名、没有海外运作经验或经验很少的中国企业，试图搭救即将破产的西方小品牌。中国发改委从未对2009年否决腾中收购悍马做出官方解释。但我认为，发改委正确意识到，即使是一家经验丰富的汽车商，在收购悍马後也会遭遇困难，像腾中这样的企业成功机率为零。尽管萨博中方投资者周末表态乐观，但发改委对浙江青年莲花汽车和庞大汽贸投资萨博，未尝不会持有与腾中收购悍马一样的看法。因此，除非萨博另觅投资方（这看似也不太可能实现），否则该公司将前途多舛。

一句话：两家中国企业拟投资萨博救急，该计划或遭中国政府否决，从而迫使萨博汽车不得不破产。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Geely-Volvo: Good First Year, But Fork in the Road Ahead

◙ China Car Brands Look Like One-Hit Wonders

◙ BAIC – Scavenging for Parts in IPO Run-Up

Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

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Lashou, China’s top group buying site whose name literally means “join hands” in Chinese, is desperately shopping for an investment banking partner to underwrite an IPO in a sudden race against time among Chinese Web firms to go public before a looming Internet bubble bursts. At least that’s my interpretation of the latest media reports saying Lashou is racing to find new underwriters for the planned offering, after Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) resigned from the case. (English article; Chinese article) If this news sounds familiar to some of you, it’s because it is. Just last month, similar reports emerged that another leading group buying site, 55tuan, was abandoning plans for an IPO after several major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, refused to underwrite the listing over concerns about accounting records for some of its previous acquisitions. (previous post) A report issued earlier this week said the group buying space has exploded to 5,000 players this year from just 2,000 at the end of 2010 (previous post), as Chinese companies pile into the latest Internet trend in a bid to become the country’s next Groupon. The only problem is, even Groupon is struggling in the overheated China group buying market right now, laying off hundreds of employees in the last month from its troubled Gaopeng joint venture with leading Chinese Internet firm Tencent (HKEx: 700). (previous post) This new problem at Lashou is just the latest development on a list of signs of crisis in group buying that is growing so long I won’t even bother to repeat them here. But I predicted earlier this week (previous post) that group buying sites look set to become the first domino to fall in China’s dangerously overinflated Internet bubble, and this latest Lashou development just adds more fuel to that argument.

Bottom line: Lashou’s inability to find an underwriter for a planned US IPO is the latest sign of distress in China’s overheated group buying sector, which could enter a full-blown crisis by year end.

拉手网正拼命寻找一家可承销其首次公开募股(IPO)的投行夥伴，加入中国互联网企业争分夺秒赶在互联网泡沫破灭前上市的行列中。这至少是我对媒体报导的拉手网正急切寻找新的承销商助其上市的解读。此前，摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)退出了拉手网的IPO承销案。如果你们中有些人觉得这听着很耳熟，原因是这种新闻的确不陌生。上个月就有类似报导称，中国另一家主要的团购网站“窝窝团”放弃赴美上市，因包括高盛在内的多家投行因担心其之前的并购产生的会计问题而拒绝承销其IPO。本周早些时候的一篇报导称，中国国内今年的团购网站数量已经从2010年底的2,000家激增至5,000家，因中国企业纷纷涉足这个互联网新趋势，希望成为中国的下一个Groupon。唯一的问题是，Groupon自己还在中国过热的团购市场中自顾不暇，且上月对自己在中国的合资企业“高朋网”进行了大规模裁员。拉手网遭遇的这个新问题只是团购业种种危机迹象的最新发展。这种迹象有很多，所以我也不想在此反复赘述。但我本周早些时候曾预言，团购网站有望成为中国过热互联网泡沫中首个倒下的多米诺骨牌，拉手网的最新进展只是为这一断言增加了更多证据。

一句话：拉手网无法找到一个助其上市的承销商是中国过热的团购业出现瓶颈的最新迹象。中国的团购业或许在今年年底前陷入全面危机中。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即