Tag Archives: 中国公司股票新闻， China company stock news

Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

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Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (English article) I’m guessing this report, which cites an unnamed source, is probably very preliminary, as any such talks wouldn’t have started until after Bartz’s firing on Wednesday. What’s more, Yahoo’s acting CEO is just filling the position on an interim basis, meaning he would be highly unlikely to make such a major decision until a new permanent CEO arrives. But such a sale will inevitably be discussed, and I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is exactly NOT the time to consider such a move. I agree that the Alibaba stake was a major distraction for Bartz during her stormy tenure, and that I said once or twice that the company should try to sell it to focus on its own turnaround story. But the fact is, Alibaba and Yahoo could potentially really help each other, which is the main reason the former sold 40 percent of itself to the latter in 2006 when Yahoo was headed by Jerry Yang, good friend of Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma. If Yahoo’s new CEO can build a good working relationship with Ma, there are many places this pair could benefit each other. Yahoo has a solid global network in search and e-commerce that could both greatly benefit the global aspirations of Alibaba’s two e-commerce sites, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Taobao. From Yahoo’s perspective, it could leverage Alibaba’s position as China’s top e-commerce company to make another play for the China search market, especially after Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) high profile departure last year that left Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) with a near monopoly that is clearly making Beijing uncomfortable. Of course we’ll need to see who Yahoo picks as its new CEO, but if it’s smart it will bring Jack Ma into the process to hopefully find someone who can take advantage of this troubled but potentially lucrative relationship.

Bottom line: Yahoo would be well advised to delay considering a sale of its Alibaba stake, and should instead focus on finding a new CEO who can work well with the Chinese company.

仅在雅虎(YHOO.O)解雇首席执行官（CEO）巴茨（Carol Bartz）两天之後，已经有报导称雅虎正在商谈出售所持有的阿里巴巴公司40%股权。我猜这篇援引未具名人士的报导内容可能非常不成熟，这种重要的谈判在巴茨周三被解雇之前并不会开始。此外，雅虎的代理CEO只是临时应急，也就是说在新CEO到任前，他绝无可能作出这个重要决定。然而，商讨出售阿里巴巴股权将无可避免，我也想借这个机会说，现在绝不是考虑采取行动的好时机。我也认为阿里巴巴股权问题是巴茨在任期间让她主要困扰的问题。我曾说过一两次，雅虎应该尝试出售持有的阿里巴巴股权，聚焦于改善自身经营业绩状况。但是，阿里巴巴和雅虎事实上存在真正相互支持的可能性，这也是前者在2006年将40%股权售予雅虎的主要原因。当时雅虎的CEO是杨致远，也是阿里巴巴董事局主席马云的好朋友。如果雅虎的新任CEO能够与马云建立良好的工作关系，两家公司在很多方面可以实现互惠互利。雅虎拥有稳固的全球搜索和电子商务网络，可以极大惠及阿里巴巴旗下两家电子网站--阿里巴巴和淘宝的全球发展目标。从雅虎的角度来看，可以利用阿里巴巴在中国电子商务领域的龙头地位，在中国搜索市场再做文章。尤其是在谷歌去年高调离开之後，百度获得了接近垄断的行业地位，这明显让中国政府感到不安。当然，我们需要看看雅虎挑选谁来担任CEO，但是雅虎如果足够聪明的话，将请马云参与到寻找合适人选的过程中，处理好目前陷入困难但仍有希望改善的双方关系。

一句话：雅虎应该延後考虑出售所持阿里巴巴的股权，聚焦于加快寻找能够与阿里巴巴睦邻互惠的新任CEO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

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After several weeks of quiet, the lingering confidence crisis for US-listed China stocks has returned to the headlines again in a report saying the US securities regulator is clashing with a major accounting firm over records for one of the biggest companies to fail in the crisis. The accountant, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, is apparently stalling to comply with a subpoena from the US Securities and Exchange Commission calling on it to hand over accounting records regarding Longtop Financial, a financial services firm whose shares tumbled and was later delisted after a major accounting scandal erupted earlier this year. (English article) Deloitte’s stalling tactics are a worrisome sign, as they seem to indicate that perhaps it suspected problems at Longtop long before it resigned from the account during the scandal. This is exactly the kind of news the market doesn’t want to hear, as it would imply that perhaps Deloitte and other major accounting firms like PricewaterhouseCoopers may often have suspicions about US-listed Chinese companies’ accounting records, but simply stay quiet to avoid losing any business, obviously a huge breach of their responsibilities. Some old timers might remember that a much bigger accounting scandal in the 1990s over former energy high-flyer Enron ultimately brought down former major consulting firm Arthur Andersen. I doubt Deloitte or any other major accounting firms will face a similar shut-down from this latest confidence crisis. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the major accounting firms going back to re-examine the books of their US-listed China clients, and perhaps a resignation or two as accountant for one or more of the larger listed companies in the next few months.

Bottom line: An ongoing clash between the US securities regulator and Deloitte over fraud at a US-listed China firm could mark the opening of a new chapter in the confidence crisis toward US-listed China stocks.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

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I have just one word to describe the news that leading Chinese online merchant 360Buy will try to raise up to $5 billion in the largest-ever Internet IPO for a Chinese company in the US: desperation. (English article; Chinese article) But I have to at least give this company credit for trying to get to market before a looming Chinese Internet bubble bursts, which could rapidly wipe out billions of dollars that investors have pumped into 360Buy, which officially calls itself Jingdong Mall. This is the company that surprised the world in April when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion — a record for a Chinese Internet company — from an investor group that included Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies, better known for its investment in Facebook. (previous post) Digital Sky’s chief later tried to justify the size of the investment, estimating that 360Buy could have a market cap of $10 billion — more than double that of most to Chinese Internet firms and trailing only top players Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post) Never mind the fact that 360Buy was losing money, which will become quite clear to everyone when if and when it files its IPO prospectus. Lots has happened since that landmark investment five months agol. Most notably, competition in the e-commerce space has heated up considerably with the influx of billions of dollars in new investment. Money-losing online promotions offering goods at ridiculously low prices appear almost daily, and early signs of distress have begun to appear with big names like group buying site Gaopeng and clothing retailer Vancl laying off staff (previous post). 360Buy showed its own signs of distress last month when it abruptly severed relations with e-payments provider AliPay in a move to cut costs. (previous post) I suspect Digital Sky and the other investors from that $1.5 billion funding round are starting to panic, and are now in a race against time to get back some of their investment before China’s bursting Internet bubble is impossible to ignore. If I were a gambler, I would say this offering will raise $1 billion at the most, and quite probably less, if it even makes it to market. The way things are rapidly developing, the company will be lucky to get a valuation of $5 billion.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s sudden rush to raise up to $5 billion in a US IPO is a sign of desperation, as investors look for quick returns before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

看到京东商城要去美国上市筹资50亿美元的消息，我只想用一个词来描述我的看法：绝望。京东商城是中国最大的购物网站，这个上市计划一旦成功将创下中国互联网公司赴美上市筹资额的历史之最。不过，对京东在中国互联网行业泡沫行将破裂前，尝试借助资本市场的努力，我还是至少要给予褒奖。中国互联网泡沫的破裂可能导致投资者对京东商城倾情投入的数十亿美元迅速灰飞烟灭。今年4月，京东商城从包括俄罗斯风投公司数字天空技术（Digital Sky Technologies）的投资者财团成功筹集到15亿美元资金，创下中国互联网公司对外定向筹资的纪录。这让外界倍感意外。数字天空技术更出名的行动当属投资Facebook，该公司後来试图为其投资规模找出理由，称京东商城的估值可能高达100亿美元，较大多数其他中国互联网公司的市值高出一倍有余，仅次于百度和腾讯等龙头企业。不要介意京东商城正在亏损，这一事实在这家公司发布上市招股书的时候将大白天下。在五个月前获得标志性巨额投资之後发生了很多事情。最值得关注的是，随着数十亿美元投资的流入，电子商务行业竞争显着升级。几乎每天都能看到提供荒唐低价商品的赔钱促销活动，随着团购网站高朋和服装零售网站凡客的裁员，电子商务行业已经初露危机迹象。上月，京东商城以降低成本的名义突然弃用支付宝，正是前者面临危机的迹象。我猜测，稍早提供15亿美元融资的数字天空技术公司等投资者已经感到痛楚，在不敢无视中国互联网泡沫行将破裂的情况下，正争分夺秒争取上市，以抢先回收部分投资。如果我是一名赌家，我会押注京东商城若决定上市，最多筹得10亿美元，并很可能更少。世事变幻莫测，京东商城若能筹得50亿美元，则需要运气。

一句话：京东商城突然宣布计划赴美上市筹资50亿美元，释放出绝望的信号，机构投资者期待抢在中国互联网泡沫破裂前赶快回收投资。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

Renren Discovers Microblogging Too Late

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Leading Chinese social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) has finally discovered microblogging, with the launch of a new service, called Xiaozhan, designed to emulate Twitter to complement its traditional SNS site that looks and feels more like Facebook. (company announcement) The only problem is, China already has a company called Weibo, a unit of leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), which looks unstoppable as it signs up millions of new users each month and whose name has become interchangeable with microblogging in China. Rival microblogging sites operated by such big names as NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) have struggled to compete with Weibo, and Chinese search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) even shuttered its own microblogging site earlier this year, acknowledging it was unable to play in the space. (previous post) In fact, Weibo, whose Chinese name actually means “microblog” in Chinese, launched its own traditional SNS site, called Qing, last month, in a bid to leverage its huge popularity to steal business from Renren and other traditional SNS sites like Kaixin. (previous post) Some  might argue that Renren needs to fight back with its own microblogging service to offer a more complete social networking experience, and that it can leverage its traditional SNS platform to lure many of its subscribers to this new Xiaozhan service. I agree to some extent that Renren needs to find related services to leverage its user base to grow. But unless it can offer something revolutionary in microblogging, which I seriously doubt, I would advise the company to look for other new opportunities and leave this space for Weibo. Barring anything unusual, I would expect this new Xiaozhan service to struggle for its entire existence, and could see Renren quietly shuttering the service in the next 1 to 2 years.

Bottom line: Renren’s newly launched microblogging service is destined for failure in the face of  insurmountable competition from Sina’s Weibo.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren Results: A Mixed Bag for Everyone 人人网业绩：苦乐参半

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

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The sudden firing of Carol Bartz, the hard-nosed CEO of search giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is all the talk of the tech world today, and I have no doubt the folks at Alibaba Group, who took every opportunity to bad-mouth this woman, are quietly celebrating the news. (English article) But if he’s smart, Alibaba chief Jack Ma should do more than just celebrate Bartz’s departure, and reach out to the Yahoo board to try and mend fences and even play a role in helping to choose a new CEO that can work constructively with China’s leading e-commerce company, which is 40 percent owned by Yahoo. Ma never tried to hide his animosity towards Bartz, a woman he considered brash and lacking vision, when she replaced his good friend Jerry Yang at the helm of Yahoo several years back in a bid to rescue a company that was rapidly losing ground to more nimble rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). Ma, through well-placed leaks to the media, made it known repeatedly over the last 2 years that he wished Yahoo would sell its stake in Alibaba, and did everything he could to line up potential buyers. But Bartz never took the bait, realizing the Alibaba stake was worth up to $10 billion, thus accounting for a large piece of Yahoo’s market cap, which now stands at $17 billion. Of course, now all the enmity is history, and Ma should take advantage of the moment to see if he can lay the foundations for a more constructive relationship by reaching out to Yahoo’s board rather than waiting for the board or eventual new CEO to come to him. Six months ago I would have said that Ma, who rightly sees himself as one of China’s earliest e-commerce visionaries, was too proud to make such a move. But after a bruising scandal earlier this year that saw him harshly criticized for his secret spin-off of Alibaba’s e-payments unit, AliPay (previous post), he appears to have become a humbler person and may even believe he’s human again! Given all the recent developments, I’d say there’s a very good chance these two partners with such a stormy past might finally be able to sit down together and forge a good new relationship that benefits everyone.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Jack Ma has a golden opportunity to reset his relationship with Yahoo following the firing of its brash CEO, and is likely to reach out to the US company to mend fences.

雅虎(YHOO.O)突然解雇首席执行官巴茨（Carol Bartz），是今天业内的热议话题，我相信，不放过任何攻击巴茨机会的阿里巴巴集团正在暗中庆祝。但如果马云聪明的话，就不只该庆祝巴茨下课，而应采取更多行动，与雅虎董事会接触，力争改善双方关系，甚至积极帮助雅虎挑选一名能与阿里巴巴建设性合作的新掌门。雅虎持有阿里巴巴40%的股份。马云从不掩饰他对巴茨的厌恶之情。马云认为，巴茨傲慢无礼且缺乏远见。几年前，谷歌(GOOG.O)迅速抢占雅虎市场份额，马云好友杨致远当时试图力挽狂澜，而之後巴茨取代杨致远成为雅虎CEO。近两年，马云巧妙地通过媒体，多次表达希望雅虎出售阿里巴巴股份的意愿，并竭尽所能寻找潜在买家。但巴茨从未让马云如愿，因为雅虎所持有的阿里巴巴股份价值已高达100亿美元，在雅虎170亿美元市值中占很大比例。当然，这些都是过去的事了，马云应利用这次机会，与雅虎董事会进行接触，力争为一个更具建设性的合作夥伴关系奠基，而不是坐等雅虎董事会任命新的CEO。如果在六个月前，我会认为，马云自尊心太强，不屑于采取如此举措。但今年早些时候，马云秘密转让支付宝股权遭抨击後，似乎变得更谦逊，甚至令人相信他又有人情味了！鉴于上述最新进展，我敢说，雅虎和阿里巴巴有望冰释前嫌，可能终于会坐下谈判，建设新的双赢合作关系。

一句话：雅虎解雇CEO巴茨，是阿里巴巴董事长马云与雅虎关系重启的绝佳机会，马云很可能会与雅虎接触，改善双方合作关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

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My latest glance at the morning headlines is reconfirming for me why longtime China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) Chairman Wang Jianzhou needs to step down, the sooner the better, and hand over control of the company to bolder new leadership that can bring some excitement back to this company. At first glance, his comments that China Mobile would face difficulty but could still reach its target of 50 million 3G subscribers this year looks relatively bold and aggressive (Chinese article), in contrast to a mostly conservative approach that caused the company to become a slow- or no-growth giant during his tenure. But then I did some math, which just shows how nothing about Wang has changed. China Mobile’s 3G network, based on a homegrown standard called TD-SCDMA, had 37.6 million subscribers at the end of July, up about 17 million from the beginning of the year. That means the company has added an average of 2.4 million 3G subscribers per month, with the numbers clearly accelerating in recent months. So doing the math, if it only continues to add subscribers at the same rate for the last 5 months of the year, it would just reach the 50 million subscriber mark. Clearly Wang is not taking any chances here, giving the most conservative forecast possible even though his company is clearly accelerating its 3G promotions, with a wide array of new handsets coming into the market and a deal to offer a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone likely by the end of this year (previous post). With all of those factors working in its favor, Wang’s continued quoting of the 50 million figure, which was given at the beginning of this year and is so obviously attainable, is just the latest indication that he needs to leave China Mobile and let a younger, more aggressive generation of leaders bring back some excitement to the company. The Chinese government has already promoted two younger leaders to key positions in the clearest indication of Wang’s coming retirement (previous post), which should be strongly welcomed by shareholders when it finally comes.

Bottom line: China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou’s latest conservative comments underscore that he needs to retire soon and leave his company to a new generation of more aggressive leaders.

早上看到的媒体报导再次让我确信，中国移动董事长王建宙为何需要让位了，而且是越早越好，将公司的控制权交给更具魄力的新领导能够给这家公司带来新气象。他表示中国移动将面临困难，但今年仍有可能实现5,000万3G用户的目标。乍看之下，与多数时候采取的保守举动相比，他的讲话还算比较大胆和激进。但是，我随後做了些简单计算，发现王建宙的讲话仍然是了无新意。截止到7月底，中国移动基于本土TD-SCDMA标准的3G网络用户为3,760万，较年初增长了大约1,700万。这意味着公司每个月增加了240万3G用户，实际上3G用户数在最近几个月出现了加速增长态势。据此计算可知，如果以过去五个月的用户增长率计算，今年年底将正好达到5,000万。很显然，王建宙没有给出任何意外之喜，只是提供了可以做出的最保守估计，根本没有考虑中国移动正在加大3G网络促销力度，包括更多新型手机上市，以及根据协议很可能在年底推出基于TD-SCDMA网络的苹果iPhone手机。在坐拥这麽多有利条件的情况下，王建宙仍和年初一样，继续提5,000万这个显而易见很容易实现的目标，无意说明他到了该离开中国移动的时候了，需要让位于年富力强的一代公司领导上台，给公司带来一些新的成长动力。中国政府已经提拔了两位年轻一些的领导到中国移动担任要职，这是王建宙行将退休的最明确信号。当一切最终成真时候，定能受到股东的热烈欢迎。

一句话：中国移动董事长王建宙最近的保守言论凸显他尽早退休的必要性，将公司交予新一代更富进取心的领导。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

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US solar cell makers are showing that their Chinese rivals aren’t the only ones who can count on government support to boost sales, with First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) announcing a big new deal with strong backing from Washington. Based in the sun-baked state of Arizona, First Solar said it will provide a hefty 100 megawatts worth of solar modules to India’s Reliance Power, with $85 million in financing for the project’s first phase coming from the policy-driven US Export-Import Bank. (company announcement) The deal marks a rare piece of good news for US-based solar makers, who have been battered over the last year by a global sector downturn and stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers like Suntech (NYSE: STP) and Trina (NYSE: TSL), which enjoy not only lower costs but also a wide array of economic incentives from Beijing. The tough conditions have claimed a number of US victims in the last month, with Evergreen Solar and SpectraWatt both filing for bankruptcy and another firm, Solyndra, expected to file shortly. (English article) This Ex-Im Bank loan for First Solar is relatively small, but any lifeline the US solar makers can get at this point is clearly welcome. They could also get another lifeline soon, following President Obama’s naming over the summer of a new commerce secretary with strong ties to the energy sector and a mandate to jumpstart more installation of alternate energy in the US. (previous post) If that effort moves forward, and the dwindling field of US solar makers get more government support, one or two may ultimately survive the current downturn, and even find a Chinese partner or two to boost their competitiveness in the sector’s ongoing shake-up.

Bottom line: First Solar’s big new sale backed by US government financing marks a rare piece of good news for battered US solar firms, who will need more support to survive the sector’s current downturn.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Buzz at German Show on New Tech, M&A

◙ Suntech: Separating Good Solar from Bad

◙ LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

 

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？

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I’ve been writing for more than a month now about China’s looming Internet bubble, and a new domestic media report makes a good case that group buying sites may lead the way when this bubble bursts in the months ahead. (Chinese article) According to the report, China’s field of group buying sites has exploded in recent months, with some 5,000 such sites now operating versus just 2,000 at the end of last year. What’s more, an industry executive at one of the top sites, 55tuan, estimated that all of the top 10 players are now losing money, as they rapidly burn through hundreds of millions of dollars in cash raised earlier this year in pursuit of a very limited base of online Chinese shoppers. Those same consumers, with so many sites to choose from, are becoming more and more selective, forcing the sites to offer promotions that are ridiculously cheap and obviously money losing. Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between global leader Groupon and leading Chinese Internet company Tencent (HKEx: 700), has captured headlines for much of the last month with reports of its steady layoff of hundreds of employees around China. In July, 55tuan, which earlier this year raised $200 million funding, also reportedly had to abandon plans for an overseas IPO after several major Western investment banks turned it down over concerns about accounting records for many of the companies it has acquired over the last year. (previous article) And to add to the mess, signs emerged last month that Chinese tax authorities were preparing to crack down on the unruly sector, which officials believe could owe more than 500 million yuan, or about $77 million, in unpaid taxes. (previous post)  With all these warning signs flashing, it’s not hard to imagine that the group buying sector is probably already in a state of crisis with a major shakeout likely to begin by the end of the year, which could easily see the closure of at least one or two big players.

Bottom line: The group buying sector, which has seen explosive growth over the last year, is the most likely candidate to lead the bursting of China’s current Internet bubble.

一个多月以来，我写了多篇关于中国互联网泡沫的文章，一家国内媒体的最新报导与我形成了呼应。这篇报导称，团购网可能在未来几个月互联网泡沫破裂时率先倒下。这篇报导称，国内团购网站2010年年底达到2000多家，到2011年7月，这个数字变成了5000家。此外，窝窝团高管估计，现在前十大团购网站全部亏损，这些团购网迅速烧掉了今年稍早筹集的数亿美元现金，争夺仍非常有限的中国网上购物者。这些购物者因为有那麽多网站可以选择，现在已经变得越来越挑剔，迫使网站提供价格便宜得很可笑的促销，明显是赔钱。全球最大团购网站Groupon和中国互联网公司腾讯合资组建的高朋网，在上月多数时间里都是媒体高度关注的对象，该网在中国持续裁员数百名。7月有报导称，窝窝网因遭到几家主要欧美国家投行的拒绝，放弃了赴海外上市的计划，投行为其去年收购的很多公司的会计记录感到担忧。窝窝网今年稍早刚筹资2亿美元。此外，上月有迹象表明中国税务机关准备对团购网行业严加管理，官方估计的欠税额为5亿元人民币，或相当于7700万美元。这些令人警醒的信号已经出现，不难想象团购网站行业可能已经陷入危机，年底时很可能开始发生重大变化，你可能轻易就能发现至少一两家行业龙头关门。

一句话：团购网去年经历了爆炸式增长，很可能在当前中国互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

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There’s been lots of noise in the electronic payments space lately, as China gets ready to issue its second round of licenses to domestic players (Chinese article) and accepts applications from foreign firms (Chinese article), with eBay’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) PayPal most prominent among those applying. (English article) Into that mix we can also add this week’s news that Alipay, the e-payments arm of Alibaba Group, has purchased the China assets of OnCard Group International (Sydney: ONC), a small Australian firm that specializes in payments for plane tickets. In my view, all this noise is exactly that: lots of noise with little or no importance for the future. When you look at developed markets like the US or Europe, e-payments in both areas are dominated by credit card issuers Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA), which also own the top global electronic networks linking up many of the world’s banks. The only niche player that has come even close to competing with them is PayPal. So let’s translate that equation to China. In terms of Visa and MasterCard equivalents, the clear parallel is UnionPay, which operates a similar network and is backed by all of China’s top banks. (previous post) That means that MAYBE there is room for one or two more players at the most, meaning all these licenses now being awarded will ultimately be meaningless. PayPal would clearly like to take a similar position in China to its global position, and AliPay is certainly a leading candidate to become a major player, drawing on its tight connections to Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), China’s B2B commerce leader, and Taobao, a leading B2C site. AliPay’s acquisition of OnCard’s China assets looks interesting, until one looks further and sees that OnCard itself is a tiny company with a market cap of only $30 million. But regardless, look for nearly all of these new e-payment licenses to be business dead-ends, with only one or possibly two players surviving in a space that will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and credit card issuers like Visa and MasterCard.

Bottom line: China’s electronic payments sector will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and other credit card companies, leaving most other e-payments licensees bankrupt.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

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There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味，联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务，联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称，中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称，联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称，联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑，这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场；联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称，联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市，但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举，也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场，联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势，并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探，将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台，当前，苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争，将需要在这方面多做努力，不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人，至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务，我的感觉是“谁去关心它？”，联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争，但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业，联想应该对其敬而远之，聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话：联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要，是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步，但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”