Bottom line: Qunar’s new airline investment is unlikely to offset its shrinking access to tickets from major airlines, while Ctrip’s new purchase of a strategic stake in Uzai.com extends its strategy to eliminate competitors through such tie-ups.
Ctrip invests in Uzai.com
China’s rapidly consolidating travel services sector is taking an interesting new twist onto the runway, with word that number-two website Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR) is joining a group launching a new airline. At the same time, separate media reports are saying that industry industry leader Ctrip(Nasdaq: CTRP) has just neutered another rival using its recent approach of buying a strategic stake in the company.
Both of these stories point to the growing clout of Ctrip and Qunar, which were once bitter rivals but became a de facto single company last year after a landmark equity tie-up. I have long called for consolidation in China’s highly fragmented travel services sector, but now sense that Ctrip is looking increasingly like a monopoly after its recent buying spree that has seen it buy up strategic stakes in most of its major rivals. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Turmoil in the Republican Party could claim a growing number of proposed Chinese acquisitions of US firms as victims, as Republican candidates turn to China bashing to curry voter favor before November elections.
Opposition grows over Terex sale to Zoomlion
Election year politics could soon claim their latest victim in M&A between the US and China, with 2 more congressmen expressing their concerns about Chinese construction equipment giant Zoomlion’s (HKEx: 1157; Shenzhen: 000157) talks to purchase US crane maker Terex (NYSE: TEX). This development doesn’t surprise me very much, especially since the latest 2 lawmakers to joint the anti-China movement are both Republicans seeking to curry favor with voters on this relatively simple issue as their own party sinks into chaos.
I don’t usually write in much detail about US politics, since the intricacies of elections aren’t that relevant to China trade. But in this particular election, growing chaos within the Republican Party could soon create anti-China rhetoric that’s louder than usual. That’s because many Americans could quickly become frustrated with the Republican Party’s infighting, which could hurt its candidates’ election prospects. That could leading many Republican candidates to try to win voter favor by rallying around the relatively safe concern about China’s growing global influence. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Foreign investors will give China bank IPOs a cold shoulder for the rest of this year due to concerns of a bad debt crisis, potentially driving valuations even lower than their already depressed levels.
Zheshang Bank delays IPO plan
A couple of banking stories are spotlighting the rapidly fading attraction of Chinese lenders to foreign investors, who fear the banks are standing on the cusp of a bad loan crisis fueled by China’s cooling economy. The first item has Citigroup (NYSE: C) selling its 20 percent stake in China Guangfa Bank for $3 billion, after original plans to list the bank collapsed due to lack of investor interest. The second item has China Zheshang Bank also delaying plans for a $1 billion Hong Kong IPO for similar reasons.
Both developments come as Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong now trade at extremely low multiples due to concerns about their individual health and China’s broader economic slowdown. Leading lender ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) now trades at a paltry price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of just 5, while Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601398) trades at an even lower 3.8. Read Full Post…
This week’s Street View takes us back to my other adopted hometown of Los Angles, where a case of extreme bullying is shining a spotlight on what sometimes happens to the growing number of Chinese kids who get shipped abroad by their parents to study in US high schools. Back when I first came to China in the 1980s, only the hardest working and brightest young people could go to study abroad, almost always on full scholarships that they applied for and received by themselves for graduate studies.
The difficulty of that early process weeded out all but the brightest and most motivated students, who were usually in their early 20s or older and savvy enough to take care of themselves in a strange and unfamiliar environment. Fast forward to the present, when a new generation of young kids from big cities like Shanghai are being sent abroad to study in US high schools with little or no adult supervision and even less experience of living on their own. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Wanda Group’s newly announced 3 billion euro Paris theme park is the latest in a string of its massive new investments, many of which are likely to collapse or get sharply scaled back due to lack of resources.
Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin to builld Paris theme park
Billionaire real estate tycoon Wang Jianlin is growing fond of the “b” word these days, with yet another announcement of a multibillion-dollar investment. This time the Wanda Group chief is announcing plans for a $3.3 billion theme park in Paris that would rival the existing nearby resort owned by Disney (NYSE: DIS), which just happens to be revving up to launch its own first theme park on Wanda’s home turf in China.
If I sound just a little skeptical, it’s because I’m growing increasingly suspicious that Wang has become addicted to making big announcements that may never get completed. This particular deal comes less than 2 months after Wang said he would buy Hollywood film studio Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion. (previous post) Many are also guessing that Wang may bid aggressively for a strategic stake worth $1 billion or more in Hollywood major Paramount Pictures, which announced just last week it is looking for such a partner. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Apple would probably hand over iPhone user information to Beijing if faced with a situation like its current standoff with Washington, but would keep the matter low profile and possibly try to find other ways to placate Beijing.
Washington standoff spotlights Apple’s cooperation with Beijing
As the high-profile standoff between Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Washington continues over access to information on a terrorist’s iPhone, a new report is raising the interesting question of what the US tech giant might do if faced with a similar situation in China. Actually, the “what if” scenario isn’t raised too much in the Los Angeles Times report, which instead focuses more on the cozier relationship that Apple has with Beijing in terms of allowing access to sensitive information related to its products.
But this still looks like a good opportunity to explore the “what if” angle, since Apple might find far fewer friends in China if it decided to defy a Beijing order to hand over information stored on the Chinese iPhone of a known terrorist. By comparison, the US technology giant has found at least some supporters for its refusal to help the FBI access information stored on the iPhone of Syed Rizwan Farook, the man behind the worst terrorist attack in the US since September 11. Read Full Post…
China’s growing love affair with Hollywood is reaching new peaks, with word that major studio Paramount Pictures may be preparing to sell a stake of itself to a Chinese buyer. Such a deal would be the highest profile investment yet in an ever-growing string of Chinese tie-ups with Tinseltown over the last 2 years. In some ways the movement looks strangely similar to Japan’s invasion of Hollywood more than 25 years ago, which saw Universal and Columbia Pictures sold to Japanese buyers.
That parallel may lead some to wonder if this latest Chinese drive into Hollywood could end with similarly disappointing results that saw both studios sputter under Japanese ownership. Prickly US-China relations could also add an element of discomfort to this new budding love affair, since Beijing enjoys a far less friendly relationship with Washington than Tokyo. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Vague new tie-ups by UnionPay with Visa and American Express could be followed soon by deals that could finally allow the US financial giants to offer yuan-based credit card services in China using UnionPay’s network.
Visa, UnionPay in new strategic tie-up
Just a week after Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) launched its Apple Pay service in China, fellow US financial giants Visa (NYSE: V) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) have just announced their own new China tie-ups with the same local partner. That partner, UnionPay, has been eager to announce a growing string of alliances with major foreign financial partners, all of whom are eagerly eyeing its status as monopoly operator of China’s only network for settling domestic financial transactions.
In this case the new separate strategic tie-ups between UnionPay and Visa and UnionPay and AmEx look mostly superficial, since the US giants clearly have far more to offer than their Chinese peer in terms of technology and experience. But Visa and AmEx are probably hoping the tie-ups could serve as a spring-board to accelerate their drive into China, as each eagerly awaits a license to offer domestic payment services in the country. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Visual China’s investments in 2 major western photo suppliers could raise some concerns about censorship, but mostly reflects a broader Chinese pattern of investment in western companies in decline.
Visual China invests in photo suppliers Getty, Corbis
Two deals that are attracting relative muted attention are seeing a Chinese company take major steps into the global photo market, reflecting the difficult state of affairs in an increasingly shared economy where the value of copyrighted material is shrinking fast. At the same time, the latest investments by Visual China (Shenzhen: 000681) are also raising some concerns about censorship, since the Chinese company will have growing influence over 2 of the world’s largest photo distributors, Corbis and Getty Images.
I do find Visual China’s sudden series of investments in copyrighted photos somewhat ironic, since China is notorious for piracy that often sees media and other publishers rampantly copy each others’ materials, often verbatim and without permission. But from a broader perspective, the current difficulties confronting big names like Corbis and Getty are the result of similar global trends that are seeing many owners of copyrighted materials undermined by free equivalents on the Internet. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Southern’s new move to stop offering heavily discounted tickets through travel agents looks aimed at the growing clout of Ctrip, and other carriers could follow with similar policies.
China Southern takes aim at Ctrip
China’s largest airline has joined a growing uprising against increasingly dominant online travel agent Ctrip(Nasdaq: CTRP), with reports that China Southern (HKEx: 1055; Shanghai: 600029) will no longer offer its most heavily discounted tickets via third-party agents. The actual move will see China Southern offer tickets with discounts of 60 percent or more only on its own website.
The move is the latest by travel products and services providers who are unhappy with Ctrip’s growing clout in the market, following a string of deals last year that saw the company purchase strategic stakes in most of its major rivals. Since that has happened, a growing number of hotels, airlines and other travel services companies have complained they are getting squeezed by a group including Ctrip and its partners, whose position looks increasingly like a monopoly. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tencent’s sharp focus, strong management and savvy strategic tie-ups make it China’s best Internet investment for the long term, though its shares may feel some short-term pressure due to high valuation.
Tencent builds empire on SNS
This week the series on my favorite Chinese stocks takes us to the “Big 3” of Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Alibaba(NYSE: BABA) and Tencent(HKEx: 700) , sometimes called the BAT super trio because they’re the country’s biggest Internet companies by quite a large margin. I’ll end the suspense right away by saying my favorite among these 3 is Tencent, the only one that’s listed in Hong Kong.
I’ll look briefly soon at some financials comparing this trio, but will openly admit my Tencent attraction is less based on market fundamentals and instead is tied to its corporate personality that differs quite a bit from the others. These “personalities” are a direct reflection of each company’s founder, since all 3 are relatively young and the founder of each is still quite clearly in charge. Read Full Post…
