Starbucks, Maxim’s Divorce: Bitter Ending or Sweet Times Ahead? 星巴克与美心闹“离婚”

I read with interest over my morning coffee that Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and prominent Hong Kong restaurant operator Maxim’s appear to be getting divorced, with the announcement that the former will take sole control of all south China Starbucks shops while the latter will take over all their Hong Kong outlets. (company announcement) I’ll have to do a quick bit of speculation here on what this all means, as I don’t know many details about this partnership even though I’m quite familiar with the companies, which both have excellent reputations in their home markets. My quick take is that this divorce probably reflects an inability to work well together, as both companies certainly have strong ideas about running a restaurant, especially in China where the cost of a cup of coffee is quite pricey compared with local incomes. At the same time, Maxim’s has never really shown a huge interest in China for its own brands, unlike Starbucks which is building new stores like crazy and just last year announced a major commitment to support local coffee growing in Yunnan province, China’s only natural coffee growing region. So what’s it all mean and who comes out the winner? In this case it could be a win-win, as Maxim’s gets to pull out of a market for which it apparently has little taste and quickly recoup its investment. Starbucks, meantime, gets to take over its China show completely, with both its challenges and rewards. Starbucks has tasted success in China’s big cities, where its stores are usually packed with lounging young professionals relaxing over a cup of daily brew. But whether or not it can replicate that success in less affluent southern cities where its Maxim partnership were concentrated could be more challenging as it seeks out a suitable business mix for these areas.

Bottom line: Starbucks’ buy out of its long-time partner in South China could become a major growth opportunity if it can figure out how to sell pricey drinks to consumers in less affluent cities.

早上喝咖啡的时候看到一条很有意思的新闻,星巴克<SBUX.O>与香港知名餐饮品牌美心似乎正闹“离婚”,双方宣布星巴克收回中国南方所有星巴克店面的全部所有权,而所有香港店面归美心独有。此举意味着什麽我还不是很确定,因为虽然我对这两家在各自本土市场声名卓着的公司很熟悉,但双方合作的细节我并不是很了解。我的第一反应是,两公司“分家”可能反映出两家无法很好地合作,因为双方对於如何经营餐饮企业都各自有着很强烈的见解,尤其是在中国,毕竟这里一杯咖啡的价格相对於当地收入而言相当贵。同时,美心对於在中国大陆拓展自有品牌从未表现出特别大的兴趣,而星巴克正在中国疯狂建立新店面,去年还宣布将大力扶持云南的咖啡种植业。那麽这到底意味着什麽?谁才是赢家?这种情况下,它可能是一种双赢局面,因为美心可以退出自己似乎无甚兴趣的市场,并迅速回收投资。而星巴克可以完全掌控其中国业务,尽管这里是挑战与机遇并存。星巴克在中国大城市已经尝到了胜利甜头,因为那里年轻的职业人士已习惯每天用一杯醇香的星巴克咖啡来放松心情。但是星巴克能否在富裕程度稍逊一筹的那些中国南方城市复制这一成功可能会更有挑战性,毕竟它与美心的合作一直集中在这块地区。

一句话:星巴克在中国南方城市买断其店面可能会成为一个重大成长机遇,前提是它要学会在不那麽富裕的城市向消费者推销其较为昂贵的饮品。

Related postings 相关文章:

Starbucks China Expansion: New Brew Needed to Serve Up Success

McDonald’s Revs Up for China Drive-Thru 麦当劳寄望“得来速”汽车餐厅拓宽中国市场

China’s Heavy Hand Leaves Investors Wary on YUM’s Little Sheep Buy 百胜难吞小肥羊

Pfizer Pairs With China Partner to Tap Health Care Reform 辉瑞与海正合作开拓中国医药市场

There’s an interesting news bit coming from China’s rapidly rising pharmaceuticals industry, where global giant Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has just announced it will join with local Chinese partner Hisun (Shanghai: 600267) to form a joint venture to tap what’s expected to be a boom in demand for low-cost drugs. (company announcement) The back story here, of course, is that China is overhauling its health care, introducing a system of heavily subsidized clinics nationwide to take the place of a former socialist system where state-run work units provided free cradle-to-grave care for all their employees. The overhaul will of course favor domestic makers of quality low-cost drugs, which is exactly what Pfizer is chasing with this tie-up. From the looks of the announcement, the venture will focus mostly on generic medicines, but both companies could also provide their own intellectual propertyl. I don’t know a lot about Hisun, but presumably Pfizer has done its homework and feels this is a partner it can work with. If that’s the case, this kind of pairing could be just what the doctor ordered for both sides, as Chinese health officials will undoubtedly be happy to give preferable treatment to drugs from a company with both a strong domestic Chinese partner and also one with the Pfizer seal of approval, guaranteeing the quality of its products.

Bottom line: Pfizer’s new joint venture with Hisun should position both companies well to tap huge demand for cheap generic drugs under Chinese health care reform.

中国医药领域的一则新闻:全球医药届巨头辉瑞<PFE.N>刚刚宣布,将与海正药业股份有限公司<600267.SS>成立合资公司,开拓中国需求巨大的低成本药品市场。这一举动的背景是,中国正在推动医改,拟发展国家补贴下的公立自愿医疗保险制度。改革肯定会惠及中国国内高质量低价药品制造商,这正是辉瑞希望进行此次合作的原因。从声明看,合资公司将主要生产非专利药,但双方也可能提供自己的知识产权。我不太了解海正,但估计辉瑞是事先作了功课,并感到这的确是一个可以合作的夥伴。如果是这样,这种组合可能会很理想,因为中国的卫生官员肯定会愿意优待这样一家既有很强的国内制药商合作方,又有辉瑞,这样一家在药品质量上有保障的合作方。

一句话:在中国医改的大背景下,辉瑞与海正成立合资公司,开拓中国需求巨大的低成本药品市场,对双方都有利。

Related postings 相关文章:

Shanghai Pharma IPO Looks Like Good Medicine 上海医药IPO似为一剂良药

Fosun Pharma Offers Window to China Healthcare Reform

China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

After seeing its solar panel makers struggle for the better part of a year in one of their worst ever downturns, Beijing is finally stepping in to help this promising sector that has fallen on hard times. Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), one of the stronger  players, has announced that it’s just received a 5-year, 1.2 billion yuan ($180 million) loan from two Chinese government-controlled banks, Bank of China and CITIC. (company announcement) While the size of this loan isn’t really that big, the broader significance is that China is stepping up to make sure its carefully nurtured solar sector gets the working capital it needs to whether the current industry downturn, that has seen panel prices plunge and inventory accumulate as urgency faded from the global drive to develop alternate energy sources. Readers of this blog will know that earlier this week wind power company Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) had to shelve a secondary offering due to weak market sentiment (previous post), and just before that LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) had to abandon a debt offering for similar reasons. (previous post). As I’ve said before, what Beijing really needs to do is boost its own drive to install more solar power plants, which would create domestic demand for these companies that now rely almost exclusively on the largess of foreign government subsidies to fuel their sales. But in the meantime, these kind of loans to the healthier solar firms should help them survive the current downturn.

Bottom line: A new $180 million loan for Yingli by Chinese banks shows Beijing is aware of the cash crunch many are facing, with more similar financing is likely in the months ahead.

太阳能行业严重不景气之际,中国太阳能电池板生产商今年挣扎不已,现在中国政府终於出手相助。英利绿色能源<YGE.N>宣布,获得中国银行与中信银行两家共计11.6亿元人民币的五年期贷款。虽然贷款数目不算太大,但其更重要的意义在於,中国政府开始参与进来,确保其精心呵护的太阳能行业获得所需要的运营资金来挺过目前行业颓势。眼下伴随全球发展替代能源迫切性减弱,太阳能电池板价格大挫,库存不断积压。我此前曾在文章中提到因市场情绪低落,中国明阳<MY.N>不得不撤回第二轮增发,而此前江西赛维太阳能<LDK.N>也因类似原因放弃债券融资计划。我之前亦说过,北京真正需要做的是加大太阳能发电厂建设力度,此举可提振国内需求,因目前这些企业严重依赖外国政府的慷慨补贴来推动产品销售。同时,向较为健康的太阳能企业提供此类贷款还可帮助他们度过目前行业颓势。

一句话:中国两家银行向英利提供11.6亿元人民币贷款显示,北京意识到了眼下很多企业面临的资金紧张困局,未来数月可能还会有更多类似融资。

Related postings 相关文章:

Canadian Solar, GCL JV Looks Like Consolidation Template 阿斯特阳光电力与保利协鑫的合资公司似是未来整合样板

Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes 明阳挫折凸显行业之殇

China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待

News Digest: June 2, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Lenovo Acquires (HKEx: 992) MEDION AG to Expand Its Business in Western Europe (Businesswire)

◙ Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) Holding Talks With China as It Considers Shanghai Share Listing (English article)

◙ Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) Announces 600 MW PV Cell Plant Joint Venture (PRNewswire)

◙ China’s Seizure of China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) Executive Leads to Wider Probe (English article)

◙ NetQin Mobile (NYSE: NQ) Announces Q1 Results (PRNewswire)

Canadian Solar, GCL JV Looks Like Consolidation Template 阿斯特阳光电力与保利协鑫的合资公司似是未来整合样板

There’s interesting news coming from the struggling solar sector, where Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) has announced a tie-up with GCL Poly-Energy (HKEx: 3800), in what could become a future template for much needed industry consolidation. The deal, which the companies are billing as a major joint venture, will see the pair invest an initially modest $77 million to build a plant to supply polysilicon to Canadian Solar, in a relatively uneven arrangement that will see GCL provide 90 percent of the registered capital. (company announcement) But what’s more interesting here is that this tie-up could serve as an eventual vehicle for a de facto merger between these companies, which could gradually inject their other assets into the venture if the partnership works out. Up until now, most such tie-ups have been supply agreements without any equity participation. GCL would clearly  be the dominant partner in this arrangement, with a market cap of around $8 billion compared to Canadian Solar’s much smaller $400 million. But this kind of tie-up, if successful, could lead to more similar partnerships that would provide some much-needed consolidation for an industry that is now in the midst of a downturn and faces a potential looming cash crunch. (previous post) Such tie-ups could lead to the eventual creation of two or three true industry giants with stronger resources and economies of scale, allowing them to not only survive but even thrive with or without government subsidies.

Bottom line: Canadian Solar’s new JV with GCL could provide a template for much-needed industry consolidation, leading to the creation of 2 or 3 truly global players.

挣扎不已的太阳能行业近日传出一条颇有意思的新闻。阿斯特阳光电力<CSIQ.O>与保利协鑫<3800.HK>宣布建立一家合资公司,此举可能成为未来行业整合的样板。根据协议,两公司首期将投资大约7,700万美元建设工厂,以向阿斯特供应多晶硅,其中保利协鑫提供90%的注册资本。这里比较有意思的是,该合资企业可能成为两家企业合并的工具,如合作成功,两公司将逐步把其他资产注入该合资企业。迄今为止,多数此类联姻还局限於供应协议,没有股权参与。保利协鑫将成该协议的主导夥伴方。但此类联姻如果成功,将会引领更多类似合作,从而为低迷的太阳能行业带来一些迫切需要的行业整合,而且还可创造两三个真正的行业巨头,拥有更强的资源与规模效应,让他们不仅生存下来,而且,不管有没有政府补贴,还能繁荣发展。

一句话:阿斯特与保利协鑫新的合资企业可为太阳能领域迫切需要的行业整合提供样板,为业界创造出两三个真正的巨头。

Related postings 相关文章:

Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes

Outlook Dims for Suntech 尚德电力:衰退的光伏行业最後的受害者

LDK: Cash Crunch Looming? 赛维LDK即将囊中羞涩?

News Digest: June 1, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 1. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Exclusive: Yahoo, Alibaba reach deal over Alipay: sources (English article)

◙ Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and GCL (HKEx: 3800) Announce JV; to Build Wafer Plant (PRNewswire)

◙ Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) Reports Q1 Unaudited Results (PRNewswire)

◙ E-House Reports Q1 2011 Results (PRNewswire)

◙ Ming Yang Wind (NYSE: MY) Withdraws Secondary Offer; Considers Share Repurchase (PRNewswire)

Asustek Chases Convergence in New Padfone 华硕推出Padfone 整合智能手机和平板电脑

It’s the first week of June in Taipei, and that means time for Computex, the annual show featuring the latest in computing gadgets and gizmos from the world’s top PC makers. The show is just kicking off today and will run all of this week, but one intriguing product already on display is Asustek’s (Taipei: 2357) newly unveiled Padfone, which it’s billing as a true convergence product that combines smartphone and tablet PC capabilities. (English article; Chinese article) I haven’t personally seen or had a chance to use this product, but based on the descriptions it sounds like a well designed offering that looks like a tablet PC with a smartphone that can pop out and be carried separately when the user doesn’t feel like carrying around a bulky tablet. Of course, with a product like this design will be key and only time will tell if consumers like it. I personally like Asustek for its willingness to take risks in new product development, which produced the wildly successful netbook at Computex several years ago. This new product is intriguing because it should appeal to the large number of consumers who want to simplify their lives by not having to carry around so many devices, adapters and so forth. Given Asustek’s record for innovation and the fact that I really think demand exists for this kind of product, I would say the Padfone could stand a strong chance for success, in which case we could see copycats piling into the market by the end of the year.

Bottom line: Asustek’s new Padfone looks like an interesting bet on convergence between tablet PCs and smartphones, and stands a good chance of success if people like its design.

台北国际电脑展(Computex)每年6月上旬举办,世界顶级个人电脑(PC)制造商都在此次展会上展出其新产品。今年的展会於今天开幕,为期一周,华硕<2357.TW>的新产品Padfone现在已经闪亮登场。这款产品整合了智能手机和平板电脑功能。我尚未亲眼见过或用过这款产品,但根据产品描述,它听起来像是一个嵌有智能手机的平板电脑,而当用户不想携带电脑时,可以取出智能手机单独携带。当然,对於这样的产品,设计是关键,只有时间能证明消费者是否喜欢。我个人十分欣赏华硕愿意承担新产品研发风险的做法。几年前,华硕在台北国际电脑展上推出的上网本就曾大获成功。Padfone这款新品很有意思,因为它将吸引许多希望简化生活、不想携带过多电子设备和适配器的消费者。鉴於华硕以往的创新记录,另外我确实认为市场存在对此类产品的需求,我敢说,Padfone取得成功的机率很大。如果是这样,预计年底前就会有大量仿效的同类产品蜂拥进入市场。

一句话:华硕新品Padfone似乎是整合平板电脑和智能手机的有趣尝试,而且如果消费者喜欢其设计,该产品成功机率很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad:终於拿出了像样的东西

Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

Motorola Comes Xooming Into China 摩托罗拉平板电脑偏重中国市场

Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

Just two months after spinning off its popular Weibo microblogging service, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) appears to be getting quite aggressive in the social networking space with its launch of a new service that looks suspiciously similar to a Facebook or Renren (Nasdaq: RENN). Domestic media are calling the quietly launched new service, called Qing, a “light blogging” product that conveniently connects seamlessly with Weibo. (English article) But based on the description of this product that allows users to post photos, video and articles, this looks much more like a full-blown social networking site aimed at using the strong market position of Weibo, often called the Twitter of China, to quickly build up a more traditional SNS service to rival Renren and IPO candidate Kaixin. If this is the case, it looks like a brilliant move by Sina to beef up its social networking unit by combining a Twitter-like offering in Weibo with a Facebook-like one in this new Qing service. Of course, the end goal in all this is to create a company that can ultimately generate big profits and be spun off. Weibo has already shown its early moves in this direction, announcing its first acquisition a few weeks ago after being formally spun off from its parent. (previous post) It’s clear from this latest move that the evolution of Weibo into a strong player that can stand on its own has clearly just begun, and I’d look for even more innovative moves from this company in the next year.

Bottom line: Sina’s launch of a new SNS-like service, Qing, marks its latest move to build up a formidable player in the space with both Twitter- and Facebook-like capabilities in one company.

在将其微博业务剥离出去两个月後,新浪<SINA.O>在社交网络领域似乎又有非常积极的举动:它推出了一项与Facebook和人人网<RENN.N>非常相似的新服务“Qing”——一款可以实现与新浪微博无缝联结的轻博客产品。根据描述,这款产品允许用户上传照片、视频和文章,但看起来更像是一个完整意义的社交网站——旨在利用新浪微博的强大市场优势,快速建立起一个更为传统的社交网站,与人人网和开心网相抗衡。如果新浪果然要将类似Twitter的微博与类似Facebook的qing新服务结合起来,以增强其社交网络业务,那麽这可以说是非常聪明的一个举动。当然,其最终目标是创建一家高盈利性的公司并将其分拆出来。新浪微博已经在往这个方向前进了,比如几周前宣布了它的首个收购举措。显而易见的是,新浪微博进化成一个可以自给自足的市场强有力参与者的过程刚刚开始,我期待新浪在未来一年拿出更多有创意的举动。

一句话:新浪新推出qing轻博客服务意味着公司在实现社交网络雄心壮志道路上的最新一步,而且这家公司可以将Twitter和Facebook的功能兼于一身。

Related postings 相关文章:

New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

Despite China Rebuff, Facebook Going Back for More Facebook明知山有虎,偏向虎山行

Renren Debut: Let the Volatility Begin 人人网首秀纽约:从此“动”起来?

Chery: A Good Bite With Subaru But A Lemon With Venezuela 奇瑞汽车喜忧参半

Chery Automobile, China’s only major car maker without a foreigner partner, is getting ready to tie the knot with Japan’s Subaru, in what looks like a smart marriage, while a separate newly announced plan for a new plant in Venezuela looks more questionable. First Subaru. After months of on-again-off-again talks, Chery and Subaru’s Japanese parent have reached an agreement in principle that would see them co-produce Subaru cars in northeastern China, foreign media are reporting. (English article) This deal looks like a really good fit for both sides, as it brings Subaru’s strength in the lower end quality auto space to Chery, which boasts not only strong manufacturing expertise and sales channels, but also a solid reputation in China’s affordable car end market. This tie-up should help Chery diversify to a slightly more upmarket segment, and I could even see an eventual equity swap similar to Ford’s (NYSE: F) previous ownership of a stake in Mazda that worked quite well. Now Venezuela. It seems Chery is getting ready to build a $200 million plant in the South American country, in a move that seems to totally lack commercial sense and smells much more of politics. Everyone knows that China is trying to cozy up to Venezuela, which has alienated most of the West that used to be the biggest customer for its plentiful oil. China Development Bank is even underwriting this latest Chery deal, further underscoring its political nature. For sure, Chery can afford to lose this $200 million investment, which isn’t huge. But wasting its time and effort on this kind of initiative can only be a distraction in the long run that this promising Chinese automaker doesn’t need.

Bottom line: Chery’s tie-up with Subaru looks like a smart marriage that could boost Chery at home and eventually abroad, while its Venezuela plan looks like a big mistake.

作为中国唯一一家尚没有外国合作夥伴的大型汽车制造商,奇瑞汽车现正打算与日本的斯巴鲁汽车联手,这似乎是一桩聪明的联姻。但奇瑞最近宣布在委内瑞拉建新厂的计划看起来却问题重重。先来谈谈与斯巴鲁的合作。据外国媒体报导,经过数月时断时续的谈判,奇瑞与斯巴鲁的日本母公司终於达成原则协议,双方将在中国东北部合资生产斯巴鲁汽车。这个协议看起来对双方都非常合适,因为斯巴鲁可将其在“较低端”优质汽车生产领域的优势带给奇瑞,而奇瑞不仅拥有强大的制造功底和销售渠道,还在中国中低端汽车市场享有不错的口碑。这个联合应可帮助奇瑞进入较为高端的市场,我甚至感到双方最终有可能会达成股权互换协议,就像以前福特和马自达之间相当成功的合作那样。现在谈谈在委内瑞拉建厂的事。奇瑞似打算投入2亿美元在这个南美国家建一座工厂,此举看起来完全缺乏商业头脑,更多是出於政治考虑。大家都知道,中国想与产油大国委内瑞拉搞好关系,後者与大部分西方国家的关系已经恶化。中国国家开发银行甚至在支持奇瑞委内瑞拉建厂一事,更加凸显出其中的政治意味。当然,即使这笔投资搞砸了,2亿美元的损失对奇瑞来说还是可以承受的。但长远来看,在这种事情上浪费时间和精力,对於这家前景光明的中国汽车制造商来说,实在是没有必要的分心之举。

一句话:奇瑞与斯巴鲁的联姻似是明智之举,有可能推动奇瑞在国内外均有所斩获,但其在委内瑞拉建厂的计划看来是个败笔。

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Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业:当繁荣已成往事

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China’s Chery: Not Quite Ready for Outback Prime Time

Bocom Chases Global I-Bank Business With Big Bucks 交通银行打算花大价钱吸引投行人才

Bank of Communications (HKEx: 3328; Shanghai: 601328), China’s largest lender outside its top four massive state-owned giants, is saying it’s serious about investment banking, and is willing to fork out the big bucks needed to attract top talent to compete with the big boys outside China. (English article) At first glance this really doesn’t look like a very major deal, as much bigger banks like ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) have stated similar intentions and have much greater resources to chase their I-banking  dreams. But what’s interesting here is that Bocom is much more market-focused than the big 4 national state banks, which take their cues from Beijing, and thus is in prime position to craft its plans based on market conditions  rather than Beijing-inspired dreams of becoming an instant global player. By focusing its investment banking dollars on Hong Kong, where a big chunk of the I-bank business comes from Chinese companies, Bocom is choosing an area where it can combine its own China-based connections with those of internationally-connected locally-based I-bankers to create what could become a formidable challenge to the big multinational players. Of course, only time will tell if Bocom can execute on this plan. But given its market-orientation, China connections and willingness to spend big for talent in Hong Kong, this looks like a plan with a good chance of success and one that could eventually propel Bocom to other international markets.

Bottom line: Bocom’s global investment banking expansion looks smart, combining its China connections with willingness to do what it takes to attract top globally-connected talent in Hong Kong.

作为中国除四大国有银行之外的最大银行,交通银行<601328.SS> <3328.HK>称其正在认真考虑投行业务,并愿意花大价钱吸引顶尖投行人才,与海外大型投行竞争。乍看起来这可能不是什麽大新闻,因为规模大得多的银行——如工商银行<601398.SS> <1398.HK>——也曾表达过类似意向,且拥有更多的资源来实现投行梦。但值得注意的是,与四大国有银行相比,交通银行的市场化程度要高得多,因而更能根据市场状况而非政府意愿来制定策略。在交行投行业务的主战场香港,交行可以将其国内关系网与香港本地那些拥有国际背景的投行家的关系网整合起来,从而有可能给大型跨国投行带来巨大挑战。当然,只有时间能证明,交行能否落实好这个计划。但考虑到交行的市场化程度,其国内关系网,以及愿意花大价钱在香港招揽人才,交行确实有可能如愿以偿,从而最终推动它进军海外市场。

一句话:交通银行的全球投行业务扩张计划看起来相当明智,因它既有国内关系网优势,又愿意花大价钱在香港招贤纳士。

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ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

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Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业:当繁荣已成往事

China’s latest monthly auto figures are out, and the slight decrease in April sales is the latest evidence that the boom times of 2009 and 2010 are in the rear view mirror. (English article) But much more worrisome is the decidedly downbeat forecast from the usually-peppy association that compiles the figures, which is now predicting auto sales for this year could actually drop 10 percent from record 2010 levels that saw China pass the US to become the world’s largest auto market. The group cited a number of reasons for the rapid cool-down, including an end to incentives that fueled last year’s huge gains, high fuel prices and moves by major cities like Beijing and Shanghai to restrict new car sales to ease urban congestion. Indeed, many of my friends who used to drive everywhere have done the unthinkable in recent weeks and are taking public transport, which has greatly improved in major cities these last few years. Such a major shift in sentiment from an industry that was previously expecting 10 percent growth this year underscores the fact that auto sales are no longer a priority for Beijing, which will hurt the likes of global powerhouses like General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG), not to mention homegrown players like SAIC (Shanghai: 600104), Geely (HKEx: 165) and BYD (HKEx: 1211), which have all posted big profit gains due to strong domestic sales. Beijing will of course continue its support for alternate energy vehicles, though that slice of the market will remain tiny for at least the next few years. In the meantime, look for a rough road ahead for China’s major auto makers in the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: The triple whammy of high fuel prices, an end to government incentives and local restrictions on new car buying will cast a chill over China’s auto sales for the next 1-2 years.

中国最新的月度汽车销售数据出炉了,4月份汽车销量小幅下降,这也是2009年和2010年中国汽车繁荣局面已成过去式的最新证据。但更令人担心的是,汇编该数据的协会给出了非常悲观的预测,称今年实际的汽车销售数量可能会从2010年的创纪录水平下挫10%。中国2010年超越美国,成为世界上最大的汽车市场。该协会就这种快速冷却的情况给出了多个理由,包括政府刺激政策的终止、高昂的燃料价格以及北京、上海等城市为缓解城市交通拥堵而限制新车销售等举措。的确,我的很多朋友过去到哪里都要开车,最近几周却很不可思议地转乘公共交通。过去几年,中国主要城市的公共交通得到了极大改善。汽车业人气的巨大转变说明了一个事实,即汽车销售不再是中国政府优先发展的市场,这将伤及通用汽车<GM.N>和大众汽车<VOWG.DE>等汽车业巨头的利益,更不用提上海汽车(SAIC)<600104.SS>、吉利<0175.HK>和比亚迪<1211.HK>等本土汽车商。因国内市场销量强劲,上述国内汽车商都发布了丰厚的利润收益报告。中国政府当然会继续支持替代的能源型汽车,尽管未来几年,新能源汽车的市场比重依然很小。同时,中国主要汽车生产商在未来1-2年内还有一条艰难的路要走。

一句话:燃料价格的高企、政府刺激举措的终止、限制购买新车的举措将在未来1-2年为中国的汽车销售投下阴影。

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