Search Results for: ant

It seems only appropriate that as I write this next item, I’ve just finished eating breakfast at my favorite local bagel joint where the new menu informed me this morning that prices have just been hiked about 10 percent. The news I refer to is that China has finally “accepted” a round of price hikes by Unilever (London: ULVR) that touched off a firestorm when the consumer products giant first discussed them in March. (English article) As many of you may recall, that mention of possible hikes touched off a wave of panic buying at stores, leading Beijing to levy an unprecedented, albeit relatively small, $300,000 fine against Unilever. The official China Daily is now reporting that after much soul searching, the state planner, known as the NDRC, has determined that Unilever’s move was a “corporate decision”, presumably meaning it wasn’t motivated by greed aimed at squeezing more money out of helpless Chinese consumers. This certainly seems to be stating the obvious, as anyone living inside or outside China has plenty of tales of price hikes on everything from consumer products to food and gasoline. To their credit, Beijing leaders are allowing Unilever to hike its prices, meaning media will probably be less likely to harass other domestic and multinational firms when they do the same to make sure they can keep operating profitably. Despite its worries about inflation, Beijing is finally realizing that this round of inflation is a global phenomenon, and unless it wants to return to the old days of coupons and rationing, it will just have to let the market make its own decisions while the government uses monetary policy to try and steer things in the desired direction. Congratulations Beijing!

Bottom line: Beijing’s allowing of price hikes by Unilever is a reassuring sign to the market that China won’t resort to price controls to help rein in inflation.

我刚刚在我最喜欢的西饼店吃完早餐，西饼店新的菜单使我发现，今天早晨的价格上涨了约10%，这和我要写的这一则分析遥相呼应。我要说的新闻是，中国最终接受了联合利华<ULVR.L><UNc.AS>新一轮的涨价，该公司三月份就谈论过涨价一事，当时便引发了一场大风暴。很多人可能还记得，当时说可能会涨价的传言引发了一波恐慌性抢购，导致中国政府史无前例地，尽管也是象征性地对联合利华罚款30万美元。《中国日报》报导称，国家发改委经过深思熟虑裁定联合利华的举动系“企业决策”，言下之意就是，并非出於榨取中国消费者更多钱财的贪婪动机。事实就摆在那里，生活在中国境内外的人都清楚了解从消费品到汽油等很多物价在上涨。中国领导人允许联合利华涨价也意味着，当其他国内企业或跨国企业作出类似涨价举动时，媒体很可能不再会对其进行死缠烂打。尽管担心国内通胀局面，但中国政府最终意识到，这一轮通胀是全球现象，除非愿意回到过去的计划经济时代，否则中国只能让市场自行决定，而政府配合使用货币政策加以引导。恭喜中国政府！

一句话：中国政府允许联合利华涨价只是再次向市场保证，中国不会为抑制通胀而进行价格操控。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sinopec, PetroChina Fight Back With ‘Pity Me’ Earnings 中石化、中石油上演苦肉计

◙ Sorry, Sinopec. Beijing’s more concerned wtih inflation, social stability

As I expected, just a month after pulling its 60 percent stake in the operator of the Motel 168 chain from the market (previous post) due to low offers, Morgan Stanley has quietly put the stake back on the market and appears close to finding a buyer in previous bidder Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN), foreign media are reporting. (English article) Also not surprisingly, this time around Home Inns’ bid is expected to value Motel 168 at about $500 million, or about half the figure the Morgan Stanley was leaking to the media the last time around. So what’s happened here? Clearly Morgan Stanley was never going to get the valuation it was seeking, considering Home Inns, the industry leader, is only valued at $1.5 billion itself and other big players like China Lodging (Nasdaq: HTHT) and 7 Days (NYSE: SVN) are valued around $1 billion each. The other big development is that since last month, Home Inns and 7 Days have both reported weak quarterly earnings, showing the market is hurting in part due to softness in Shanghai following the end of the World Expo. (previous post) Clearly Morgan Stanley wants to get rid of this investment, which is playing to Home Inns’ advantage as it should get the stake at a significant discount to what Morgan Stanley was seeking. But all that doesn’t change the fact that the budget hotel market is suffering from a slowdown, which is likely to continue for at least the next year as Expo effects linger and Beijing maintains its tight monetary policy, keeping Chinese consumers at home.

Bottom line: Home Inns’ imminent purchase of a controlling stake of Motel 168 should give it a nice short-term lift, but recovery for the sluggish budget hotel sector is still a year away.

摩根士丹利一个月前计划出售所持上海莫泰168连锁酒店60%的股权，但因不满接盘者报价太低而作罢，而正如我之前预料的那样，大摩仅一个月後又悄然带着这一交易重返市场，且与如家<HMIN.O>的股权交易已接近达成。一点也不奇怪还有，如家对莫泰168的估值为5亿美元左右，仅仅是大摩上次透露给媒体的价格的一半。那麽这其中到底发生了什麽呢？很明显，大摩从未打算得到他们想要的价格，原因是，作为业界领头羊的如家，其自身估值也仅为15亿美元，而汉庭连锁酒店集团<HTHT.O>、7天连锁酒店<SVN.N>等其他主要经济型酒店其估值分别也只有10亿美元左右。另一个重大进展是，自上月以来，如家和7天连锁酒店的季度营收报告均很疲软，说明市场元气受损，部分由於世博会结束对上海市场带来的疲软。很明显，大摩希望甩掉这笔投资，而这笔投资正好能发挥如家的优势，如家便以非常大的折扣价得到了这部分股权。但所有这些都不能改变一个事实，即经济型连锁酒店市场正遭遇发展缓慢的局面，而这一态势很可能至少会绵延至明年，因世博会效应仍存，而中国政府会继续维持其紧缩的货币政策，消费者出行旅游会减少。

一句话：如家即将收购莫泰控股权一事应该会有短期提振效应，但经济型酒店业的复苏至少得等一年以後。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期

◙ Motel 168 Not So Hot, 7 Days Finds New Guest 莫泰168不再炙手可热，7天连锁找到了新客户

◙ Disney Shanghai: A Great Hotel Play

The outlook is slowly fading for China’s solar cell manufacturing giants, as international markets turn down the volume of their incentives for installation of new solar energy. The latest of the big Chinese players to fall victim to the uncertainty is Suntech (NYSE: STP), which has lowered its 2011 revenue guidance, albeit slightly, to between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion, down from a previous $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion. (English article; results announcement) As many of you will recall, Suntech’s lowered forecast comes after Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) warned they would miss their targets, with both companies citing clarifications regarding incentive policies in Italy’s solar market for the shortfall. (previous post) All of this just underscores the need for China to come out with its own domestic incentives for installation of solar power, effectively making these companies less reliant on exports to sell the millions of solar panels they produce. Several reports earlier this month suggested that China was planning to sharply raise its target for domestic solar energy plants in its new 5 year plan from a previous 5 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts. But a report I read just today from CCID, a government-linked research house, was still using the 5 gigawatt figure, suggesting the plan is far from final. Considering the volatility of the global solar market at present, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more downgrades from Suntech, Trina and others on their 2011 outlook, which may finally prod Beijing into coming out with definitive new aggressive goals for solar installation to help support the industry.

Bottom line: Look for more downward revisions in outlook from solar cell makers in the next two quarters, which should spur Beijing into giving more aggressive support for the industry.

对於中国太阳能电池生产巨头来说，前途已经开始黯淡，因为国际市场在减少对安装太阳能电池的补贴措施。中国同类厂商中最近的一个受害者是尚德电力<STP.N>，这家公司将2011年营收展望调至33亿-35亿美元，较之前的34亿-36亿美元有所减少。很多人可能还记得，天合光能<TSL.N>和英利<YGE.N>此前曾表示，可能没法达到预期，且将原因归咎於意大利太阳能市场的激励政策的变动。这一切都说明，中国需要为本土太阳能市场推出激励政策，好让这些生产了数百万个太阳能电池板的公司不那麽依赖出口。本月此前有多份报导称，中国在十二五规划中，计划将国内的光伏装机容量从500万千瓦提高到1,000万千瓦。但我今天从中国电子信息产业发展研究院的一份报告中发现，数字依然是500万千瓦，这说明上述计划还不远是最终决定。考虑到最近全球太阳能市场的动荡，尚德电力、天合光能和英利调低2011年营收展望并不会让我感到意外，而这可能最终会推动中国政府定下新的光伏发电目标，以扶植这个行业。

一句话：未来两个季度预计光伏生产商将继续调低展望，这将推动中国政府制定更多激励措施扶植光伏行业发展。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Italian Cloud Casts Shadow on Solar Sector, Pressures Beijing 意大利阴云笼罩中国太阳能产业

◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待

After years of having to deal with the antics of Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma, who makes no secret of his distaste for his company’s controlling shareholder, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), we’re finally seeing some movement that could result in the eventual divorce of this greatly mismatched pair. Their latest dispute, as many will know, involves Alipay, Alibaba’s online payments service that became a major source of contention after Ma secretly moved the company into a separate firm with no connections to its parent and then waited a while before telling Yahoo, which owns 40 percent of Alibaba, and Softbank, Alibaba’s second biggest shareholder. I’m not sure what Ma is trying to prove by doing something like this, as anyone who knows the first thing about good governance would agree you need to tell your biggest shareholders when you’re divesting a major asset like Alipay. But all that is history now, and Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz said this week that Yahoo, Softbank and Alibaba are in talks to resolve this matter. (English article) At the end of the day, I see Alibaba receiving a chunk of cash — up to $5 billion by some estimates — as compensation for Alipay, which it will no doubt immediately distribute as a special dividend to its shareholders, including Yahoo and Softbank. That will leave just Alibaba.com and Taobao as the group’s major assets, with market cap of about $8 billion for the former and perhaps another $4-$5 billion for Taobao. If Yahoo is as sick of Alibaba as I am, they’ll be smart and quickly negotiate a buyout for their stake after the Alipay dispute is settled, and let Jack Ma determine his own tumultuous future.

Bottom line: Yahoo’s talks in its latest blow-up with Alibaba could ultimately end up in a universal settlement that lets Yahoo wash its hands of this lucrative but problematic asset.

马云毫不掩饰对其最大股东雅虎<YHOO.O>的厌恶。见识了马云这几年的动作後，我们终於看到了可能导致阿里巴巴与雅虎分道扬镳的动作。很多人都知道，支付宝事件近来成为阿里巴巴与雅虎争执的焦点。马云将支付宝的所有权转移至一家与雅虎没有关系的公司，而等了一段时间後才知会持有阿里巴巴40%股权的雅虎和第二大股东软银(Softbank)。我不知道马云这麽做是想证明点什麽，因为大家都知道，好的公司治理意味着，要把像支付宝这麽大的资产剥离出去，需要告诉最大股东。但这已经发生了，雅虎首席执行官卡罗尔•巴茨本周表示，雅虎、Softbank和阿里巴巴在讨论此事的解决方案。最终我发现阿里巴巴收到了一大笔现金–有人估计高达50亿美元–作为对支付宝的补偿，而这笔钱肯定会立即被作为特别股息分配给股东，如雅虎和软银。这一解决方案会让Alibaba.com和淘宝成为阿里巴巴最大的资产，其中前者市值80亿美元，後者市值40-50亿美元。如果雅虎也像我这样讨厌阿里巴巴，那麽他们就应该在风波平息後，尽快与阿里巴巴谈出售股权的事，让马云自己决定未来的命运。

一句话：阿里巴巴与雅虎最近的争端可能导致双方分道扬镳，使得雅虎放弃这份虽然诱人但问题重重的资产。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Alibaba Challnges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴：财报说了些什麽？

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

Everyone is chattering about the the upcoming move to China by Intel’s (Nasdaq: INTC) Sean Maloney, considered a potential successor to CEO Paul Otellini, so I’ll give my own thoughts on the significance of this move. To summarize, Intel said that Maloney, who had been on medical leave after suffering a stroke 15 months ago, will return to work in the newly created position as chairman of China, an unprecedented move for this very US-centric company. (English article; Chinese article) First the more positive side, which is that this move is a clear affirmation by the world’s largest PC chip maker that China is without question the most important global market after the US for gadget innovation. It’s already the world’s second biggest PC market, and is increasingly a top designer and consumer of smartphones that will eventually take over the mobile communications market. So obviously it behooves Intel to have a major executive here. Now the less positive side, namely, that Intel, like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), is quite simply in danger of losing its relevance in the computing world as more and more people look to mobile computing on a new range of devices like smartphones and tablet PCs — areas in which Intel is just a tiny force unlike the PC area that it dominates. In short, I see this move by Intel as both a nod to the importance of China, but also slightly smelling of desperation as it looks to re-find its way back to relevance in the computing world of the 21st century. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some major strategy shifts and big announcements coming from Intel China after Maloney assumes his new position.

Bottom line: Intel’s move of its potential next CEO to China is a gamble the company must take if it wants to have any chance of retaining its position as a global leader in computing chips.

人人都在讨论马宏升（Sean Maloney）出任英特尔<INTC.O>中国区首任董事长一事，因马宏升被认为有可能成为英特尔CEO欧德宁的接班人。在我看来，英特尔宣布马宏升在因中风病休15个月後复出，将出任英特尔新设立的中国区董事长一职，对於这样一家典型的“美国中心型”企业可谓前所未有的举动。首先说积极面，英特尔此举显然是在肯定中国在科技产品创新方面已是美国之後最重要的海外市场。中国已经是全球第二大个人电脑（PC）市场，而且日益迈向智能手机顶级设计国与消费国。所以英特尔在中国安排一位重要高管顺理成章。再谈一下不太积极的一面：随着越来越多的人转向智能手机、平板电脑等移动设备，英特尔与微软<MSFT.O>类似，在电脑世界正面临失势危险。在智能手机与平板电脑等领域，英特尔影响力甚微，远不具备它在传统PC领域的那种主导地位。简言之，我认为英特尔此举一方面肯定了中国市场的重要地位，但也有孤注一掷、力图在21世纪电脑世界重塑辉煌的嫌疑。同理，马宏升新官上任後若宣布重大战略调整等重要举措，我不会感到意外。

一句话：英特尔若想保住在电脑芯片领域的全球领先地位，将下任CEO潜在人选调往中国是它必须做出的一搏。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ Micron Nods to China’s Gadget Clout 美光科技押宝中国电子器件市场

I try not to be too surprised when Chinese companies do strange things, but Shanda Interactive’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) determination to go forward with an IPO for its online literature unit, called Cloudary, is leaving more and more puzzled by the day. (English article; Chinese article) First let’s take a look at the facts around this relatively boring online business. Cloudary is currently losing money, posting a net loss of about $600,000 last year, which admittedly was much better than the $15 million loss for 2009. Revenue more than doubled over that period, but still was just a modest $21 million last year. Despite these less-than-impressive figures, Shanda still wants to raise up to a whopping $200 million from this deal, which sounds ridiculous unless it’s planning to sell off most of the company. Now let’s look at the bigger realities. The market for China IPOs has cooled considerably in the last few weeks, especially for second-tier deals like this one, as reflected by the recent flop for Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE) a much more interesting play that is one of China’s top online dating sites. (previous post) Considering Shanda’s failure at its only other spinoff, Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME), and its recent problems with its Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV) unit, this upcoming Cloudary IPO has flop written all over it.

Bottom line: Shanda’s planned IPO for its Cloudary online literature unit lacks excitement in general and is poorly times, making this offering a sure-fire flop.

中国公司做出种种奇特举动本来并不新鲜，但盛大互动娱乐<SNDA.O>执意要将旗下在线文学部门Cloudary上市的决定还是让人越来越困惑。首先，让我们看看这桩相当无聊的网上生意到底是什麽情况。目前Cloudary是亏损的，去年净亏损约60万美元，当然要比2009年的亏损 1,500万美元好很多。盛大2010年营收较一年前增加了一倍多，但也就是2,100万美元。尽管业绩平平，盛大仍想通过让该部门上市来筹集2亿美元之多。除非盛大打算把公司大部分都卖出去，否则这个筹资目标听起来确实很荒唐。现在让我们再看看大环境。过去几个星期，中国公司IPO市场大大降温，尤其是对於这类“二线公司”而言，世纪佳缘<DATE.O>最近的逆境便是明证，而世纪佳缘的业务听起来要比盛大文学有趣很多。考虑到另一家从盛大分拆出来的上市公司盛大游戏<GAME.O>吃到的败仗，以及盛大旗下酷6媒体<KUTV.O>近期发生的问题，即将上市的Cloudary可谓看不到一线光明。

一句话：盛大Cloudary本身乏善可陈且上市时机糟糕，肯定会遭遇滑铁卢。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda Literature IPO: Watch the Bottom Line *盛大文学IPO: 利润在哪里？

◙ Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

Want to raise a few hundred million dollars? Then just become a group buying Web site in China. That’s the only conclusion I can reach, after reading reports that the latest China Groupon wannabe, called 55Tuan, has raised a neat $200 million in funding from a group including Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). (English article; Chinese article) That would come less than a month after rival group buying site Dianping raised $100 million from a group including Sequoia Capital (English article), which came just weeks after yet another rival called Lashou also pulled in $111 million from a group that included London’s Milestone Capital Partners (previous post) All this financial bulking up, which comes as the real Groupon itself has recently launched a service in China, looks a lot like the beginning of another race to market by these three big group buying sites, all seeking to win a hefty premium for whoever gets there first. As many of you will recall, Renren (NYSE: RENN), often called the Facebook of China, received a hefty premium when it became not only China’s, but also the world’s first major social networking site to go public earlier this month, beating out hometown rival Kaixin for the honor. This case with 55Tuan, Lashou and Dianping looks like a similar race, as any could easily beat out Groupon to become the world’s first major group buying site to list. The market has definitely cooled somewhat to China IPOs since Renren’s listing, but I’d still bet that whichever of the trio is first to market will get a nice premium for its efforts.

Bottom line: A recent spate of massive investment in 3 major Chinese group buying sites marks the beginning of a race to be first to market between Lashou, Dianping and 55Tuan.

想融个几亿美元？在中国做团购网站就可以了。这是读到窝窝团(55Tuan)获得高盛<GS.N>等机构2亿美元投资的报导後，我能得出的唯一结论。而不到一个月前，红杉资本等刚刚为大众点评团购网投资1亿美元，再往前数几周，中国团购群雄中另外一家网站拉手网则获得伦敦麦顿投资等机构共 1.11亿美元投资。在美国团购网站Groupon最近也在中国推出团购服务的情况下，这些庞大的融资数目看起来更像是三家团购网的上市赛跑，它们都希望首先上市而赢得巨大溢价。前段时间，中国两家社交网络–人人网<RENN.N>与开心网的上市赛跑中，人人网最终笑到最後，本月稍早成为中国、也成为全球首家上市的社交网站。窝窝团、拉手网与大众点评网看起来也走上了同样的赛道，三家网站任何一家应都可能轻易击败Groupon，成为全球第一家上市的大型团购网站。人人网上市後，市场对於中国企业IPO的反应已有所冷淡，但我仍然打赌三家网站中首先上市的一家会获得巨大溢价。

一句话：最近中国拉手、大众点评与窝窝团三家团购网站大举融资已经为上市赛跑拉开了序幕。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lashou Pulls in More Bucks in Race With Groupon 拉手网拉来更多资金与Groupon抗衡

◙ China Groupon Charging for IPO Gate

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

Telecoms equipment superstar Huawei Technologies appears to be on a major PR and spending blitz to shore up its flagging prospects in Western markets where some question its ties to Beijing. My sources tell me the company has hired a headhunter to find a new top PR manager, undoubtedly to craft a global strategy to convince the world it’s not a wolf in sheep’s clothing waiting to pounce on unsuspecting Western telcos. In a similar vein, Chinese media are reporting the company has just set up an advisory board specifically for the UK market (Chinese article), a move that sounds strikingly similar to its establishment of a board in Australia last month. (previous post) Clearly the establishment of these boards, which is being carefully leaked to the Chinese media, is designed to convince Western governments that Huawei is letting locally-based employees, many of them local citizens, take charge of sales in their markets without interference or direction from headquarters. It’s an interesting strategy that could well work given enough time and resources. Meantime, Chinese media are also reporting that Huawei is raising a massive $1.5 billion in funds. (English article) There’s no mention of what the fund-raising is for, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some major announcements in the months ahead of new Huawei plans to build production facilities in Europe and North America, similar to what it previously did in India, to convince local governments it’s purely a business and not an arm of Beijing.

Bottom line: Huawei is stepping up its ongoing PR blitz to convince the West it’s a business and not an agent of Beijing, an interesting strategy that could work given enough time and resources.

电信设备商领域超级巨星–华为技术[HWT.UL]似乎要展开一场耗资巨大的公关战，以改善公司在西方市场黯淡的发展前景，打消西方对於华为与中国政府关系的疑心。有消息人士告诉我，华为聘请猎头为其寻找新的公关最高主管，无疑是为了说服全球，华为并非是一头披着狼皮的羊，等着扑向毫无戒备的西方电信公司。出於同一目的，据中国媒体报导，华为刚刚成立一个专门面向英国市场的顾问组，与上月起在澳大利亚成立顾问组做法雷同。华为通过精心透露给媒体上述消息，是为了说服西方政府，华为是在当地员工（很多是当地人）负责当地的市场销售，总部不会插手或指导。这是一个很有意思的战略，如果给予充分的时间与资源，可能收效甚好。同时，中国媒体还报导，华为正通过基金大规模募资15亿美元，虽然没有提及基金用途，但是未来几个月如果华为宣布欧洲北美建造生产企业，我不会感到意外。之前华为在印度也有类似做法，目的就是说服当地政府，华为只做生意，不是中国政府的工具。

一句话：华为正在加码公关，说服西方国家他们只是一家企业，并非政府特工，给予足够的时间与资源，这个战略应能收得成效。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

◙ Huawei Looks for Growth in IT Services 华为在IT服务领域寻求增长机遇

◙ Huawei: Strength in Separation? 华为：大胆尝试“本土化管理”

Following unimpressive earnings by rival VanceInfo (NYSE: VIT) last week (previous post), IT outsourcing specialist HiSoft (Nasdaq: HSFT) has followed with equally unimpressive outlook for the rest of 2011, reiterating guidance given earlier in the year for a big slowdown in its sector. HiSoft managed to log a solid 45 percent top-line growth for the first quarter, but reiterated guidance for more modest growth of around 30 percent for the full year, indicating a big slowdown may be brewing. (Company announcement) The top line numbers from both HiSoft and VanceInfo look remarkably similar even though HiSoft is much more geographically diversified than VanceInfo, which seems to indicate that global IT spending may be slowing after the big burst of deferred demand during the heady early days of global stimulus packages. At the end of the day, 30 percent growth isn’t all that bad, though investors may have to rethink their expectations for these companies.  In terms of who is better positioned to ride out this slowdown, I would give a decided advantage to HiSoft if it can work through its margin issues brought on by rising costs. HiSoft seems to have a more diversified client base, getting just a fifth of its business from China, which will give it more protection as Beijing slams on the brakes to try and cool its overheating economy. Investors seem to be somewhat undecided, with HiSoft stock down 9 percent during regular Monday trading but then rebounding 17 percent in after hours.

Bottom line: A global slowdown in IT spending is taking a toll on outsourcing firms HiSoft and VanceInfo, with the former better positioned to ride out the downturn.

竞争对手文思信息(VanceInfo)<VIT.N>上周发布表现平平的财报後，IT外包企业海辉软件 (HiSoft)<HSFT.O>对今年余下时间的预期同样平淡无奇。海辉软件一季度净营收增加45%，表现较好，但公司再次强调全年30% 左右的增速预期，显示大减速或在酝酿中。文思与海辉的营收数字非常类似，尽管海辉的市场地域范畴更广泛。这似乎暗示，IT外包需求在早期全球刺激计划带动大爆发後，现在已开始开始逐步放缓。尽管投资者们或许要重新思考对公司的预期，但30%的增长速度当然也不算太差。如果说谁能更好地度过此次减速，我会把这一票投给海辉，当然它还需解决成本上升导致的利润率问题。海辉似乎拥有更加多元化的客户群，其中国业务贡献的收入仅占五分之一，鉴於中国政府对过热经济踩刹车，在中国市场的较低比例应该是一种保护。投资者们似乎还在犹豫，海辉股价周一在正常交易时段大跌9%，但在盘後交易又强力反弹17%。

一句话：全球IT行业开支减速对IT外包公司海辉与文思构成冲击，但海辉似乎更有能力顺利挺过难关。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ VanceInfo Underwhelms With Latest Results, Guidance 文思创新业绩平淡

◙  Hisoft: Positioned for Japanese Rebound 海辉软件：将受益於日本重建

◙ Mindray, HiSoft See Slowdown in 2011

Money-losing video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) took a big chance with a massive follow-on offering less than a half year after its original New York IPO. Based on the early reaction, investors seem to be buying into this story despite some signs of doubt. After making its initial $200 million IPO in December and seeing its shares more than double on their debut (English article), the company returned to the market late last week and raised another $530 million by offering shares at a 3 percent discount to the latest market price but still four times the original IPO price. (English article) The stock promptly fell nearly 4 percent to below the offer price as investors finally realized that this company may be just slightly overhyped. All things considered, this new capital raising was a really smart move by Youku and its investors, which took advantage of huge interest in their company by short-term investors to squeeze more money out of them so they could continue to gamble on its stock. If it uses the money to acquire a major rival like Tudou, which is reportedly up for sale (previous post), then so much the better. The only problem is, at some point — probably in the near future — people will grow tired of this stock and realize it’s way overvalued, leading to a sell-off as it sinks to more appropriate levels. When that happens, look for the sell-off to be fast and furious, as the same short-term investors who previously bet on this company to notch big gains become short sellers looking for equally big declines.

Bottom line: Youku was smart to take advantage of investor greed to raise a huge chunk of new cash, but that same greed will ultimately take a toll on its shares when long buyers turn to short sellers.

业绩亏损的优酷<YOKU.N>从不到半年前在纽约上市以来，凭借投资者对视频分享网站的热烈追捧而大捞了一笔。从市场此前的反应看来，虽然坊间存在一些质疑，但投资者对公司描绘的前景非常买账。优酷去年12月首次公开发行(IPO)，首日股价大涨近两倍，筹得2亿美元。上周末，优酷又凭借增发筹得5.3亿美元，虽然其增发价格比最新市场价提供3%折扣，但仍大约相当於最初发行价格的四倍。但当投资者终於发现可能有点高估这家公司後，股价随即比增发价跌去4%。综合考虑各项因素，优酷此次筹资是个相当聪明的举动，因为这一次的筹资，利用了短期投资者对优酷巨大的兴趣，从他们手中吸引到更多投资，牵制住他们，让他们在优酷股票上继续赌下去。如果优酷利用这笔资金并购了一个重量级的对手，譬如待价而沽的土豆网，那就更好了。唯一的问题是——也许在不远的将来–人们可能会这支股票感到厌倦，并发现高估了优酷，然後会在股价向合理价位下跌的进程中抛售。当优酷股价凶猛下跌时，那些早前押注优酷美好前景的短期投资者就会摇身变成做空者，期待从其汹涌跌幅中牟利。

一句话：优酷很聪明地利用投资者的贪婪心理筹到了一大笔钱，但当做多投资者变成做空，优酷也可能会搬起石头砸了自己的脚。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

◙ Youku: Mixed Results Make Management Confident 优酷业绩喜忧参半管理层仍雄心勃勃

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐