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Chinese TV program and movie makers, who often struggle just to survive due to rampant piracy and monopoly market conditions that constrain their ability to sell products, may be on the cusp of a golden age thanks to a new benefactor: the Internet. Chinese media are reporting that programming makers speaking at Shanghai’s annual film festival said the market has suddenly exploded for their product from a growing crop of content-hungry video sharing sites such as Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Tudou, Xunlei and Tencent (HKEx: 700). (English article) According to the reports, single episodes of the most popular TV shows can now fetch as much as 600,000 yuan apiece — a nice sum and certainly welcome news for program makers like Huayi Brothers (Shenzhen: 300027), which often have difficulty finding cash just to finance their next venture. The development seems to already be sparking some activity in the program-making arena, with Tencent buying a 4.6 percent stake in Huayi earlier this year (previous post), and Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) Qiyi video joint venture announcing just this week its production arm would produce four variety shows  and one movie this year. (English article) The trend could help to fuel the rise of a new wave of independent production houses, and should also come as good news for global media giants like News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) and Disney (NYSE: DIS), as well as Hong Kong leader Television Broadcasts (HKEx: 511), which have been trying to figure out for years how to make money in China. Of course, the coming renaissance could also run out of steam if the online video sector  consolidates, which seems inevitable. But for now, it’s certainly showtime for China’s long under-appreciated TV and movie makers.

Bottom line: TV program and movie makers in China are poised to see business boom on growing demand from online video sites.

由於中国盗版猖獗和市场垄断，国内的电视和电影制片商销售能力受限，往往仅为生存挣扎。但由於视频网站的崛起，这些制片商或即将迎来黄金时期。据中国媒体报导，制片商在上海国际电影节上表示，优酷<YOKU.N>、土豆、迅雷和腾讯<0700.HK>等视频分享网站对内容的需求呈爆发性增长。报导称，对於最受欢迎的电视剧，目前单集售价已高达60万元，如此可观的收入自然令华谊兄弟<300027.SZ>等制片商喜出望外，因为他们经常为投资下部作品的资金来源发愁。这一变化似乎已经引发制片领域的一些商业动作，如腾讯今年早些时候购买了华谊4.6%的股权，百度<BIDU.O>旗下的奇艺视频合资企业本周宣布，其制片团队今年将推出四档综艺节目和一部电影。这还将催生一批独立制片工作室，对新闻集团<NWSA.O> 、迪士尼<DIS.N>等全球媒体巨头和香港电视广播有限公司<0511.HK>来说也不失为好消息，因这些公司多年来一直在探索如何在中国大陆市场赚钱。当然，如果在线视频网站领域出现整合——这似乎是不可避免的——制片商的好日子也可能会到头。但目前来看，长期被低估的中国电视和电影制片商势必要赢来一段黄金时期。

一句话：由於中国在线视频网站对内容的需求增长，国内电视和电影制片商势必会迎来一波黄金商机。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

◙ Youku: Mixed Results Make Management Confident 优酷业绩喜忧参半管理层仍雄心勃勃

◙ Tudou: Back on the IPO Trail 土豆：重回IPO轨道

I’m not shareholder in Ctrip.com (Nasdaq: CTRP), but I’m certainly a big fan of just about everything this company does, including its numerous new business initiatives that all seem well thought out and positioned to capitalize on its position as one of China’s leading travel services companies. In one of its newer such moves, which actually began 2 years ago but now seems to be picking up steam, Ctrip is developing its own Starway hotel alliance, bringing together independent hotels under a single banner to better help them attract business and provide service under a set of uniform standards. This kind of alliance is similar to the Best Western brand in the US, and is a very convenient way for independent hotel owners, who otherwise wouldn’t have much chance at attracting customers, to unite under a single name and market themselves collectively. A recent domestic media report says the Starway brand now has about 120 hotels nationwide, and Ctrip has also recently launched a more upscale version, Starway Premier, for better quality independent hotels. (English article) This kind of initiative should provide new revenues for Ctrip in a number of ways, from franchise and management fees to actual booking fees when travelers book rooms at these hotels on Ctrip’s system. This kind of initiative follows other creative ones in the group buying (previous post) and restaurant (previous post) spaces, all playing to Ctrip’s core strength, and providing new sources of revenue to keep the company growth.

Bottom line: Ctrip’s Starway hotel brand management initiative is yet another smart campaign by this travel services leader in its search for new revenues drawing on its core strength.

我不是携程<CTRP.O>的股东，但我是这家公司的铁杆粉丝。作为中国领先的旅游服务商，携程推出的很多服务创意都很棒。其最新推出的一个创意——实际上两年前就开始了，但最近才火起来，携程推出自有品牌–星程连锁酒店，把很多独立的小旅店整合起来，更好地吸引顾客，提供统一标准的服务。这与美国的 Best Western品牌很像，而且给独立的酒店业主提供了很大的方便，因为这些酒店业主不会有什麽机会联合起来一起做市场推广活动。最近的国内媒体报导，星程品牌目前在全国拥有了120家门店，携程最近还推出了一个更高端的品牌–星程精品，提供更好的服务。这从很多方面会给携程带来新的收入来源，如特许经营费，管理费用，订房费用等。此前携程也在购物和餐饮方面推出了很多业务创意，这都发挥了携程的核心优势，给携程提供了新的收入来源。

一句话：携程的星程酒店品牌管理计划，是携程在寻找新收入来源，发挥核心优势方面做出的又一聪明之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ctrip Makes Smart Trip Into Group Buying 携程也推团购：不仅只是赶时髦

◙ Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程：进军在线订餐

◙ Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期

In news that has all the markings of a cloak-and-dagger tale, Chinese media are saying that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) COO Tim Cook came calling this week on China’s dominant mobile carrier, China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941), in a report that featured a blurry photo of a potentially Western-looking man viewed from the back walking briskly through the lobby of a Chinese company. (Chinese article) China Mobile announced nearly a year ago that it was in talks with Apple to develop a model of its wildly popular iPhone that could run on the telco’s problematic 3G network, based on a homegrown technology standard known as TD-SCDMA. China Mobile has given few substative updates on that plan since the initial disclosure, but I suspect the arrival of such a high-level Apple executive, if true, means an official announcement  could be near. The roll-out of such a model would mark a huge development for China Mobile, which has steadily lost market share in the 3G space to rivals Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) and China Telecom (NYSE: CHA; HKEx: 728) not only due to technical issues, but also a lack of hot-selling handsets developed for TD-SCDMA. Unicom has used its status as China’s only telco with an official iPhone tie-up to turbocharge its 3G service, stealing steady share from China Mobile in this space particularly suited to smartphones that can take advantage of 3G’s high-speed data capabilities. Furthermore, iPhones enjoy just as much if not more popularity in China as they do elsewhere in the world, meaning China Mobile would be almost guaranteed to see a huge bump in its 3G subscriber growth if it can offer a 3G iPhone. I’m not usually one to get caught up in market hype, but China Mobile’s roll out of a 3G iPhone in the next few months, if it happens, would be a major game-changer in the country’s 3G market, helping China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s potential roll-out of a TD-SCDMA 3G iPhone in the next few months could help it regain momentum it has lost to rivals China Unicom and China Telecom.

中国媒体报导称，苹果<AAPL.O>首席运营官蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)本周现身中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>总部。有报导还配发了一张模糊的照片，照片中一名西方人模样的男子迅速穿过中国移动总部大厅。中国移动近一年前宣布，公司正与苹果就开发TD-SCDMA网络制式的3G版iPhone机型进行谈判，但中移动在此之後便鲜有後续消息披露。但我猜测，苹果高层的造访——如果确有其事——意味着一份正式的合作声明可能即将出台。类似机型的推出对中移动而言将是个巨大进展。中国移动在与中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>的3G竞争中不断丢失市场份额，其中不光有技术原因，也因为中移动缺少基於TD-SCDMA制式的热销机型。作为iPhone手机在中国唯一的授权运营商，中国联通在3G领域不断蚕食中国移动的市场份额。此外，iPhone在中国受欢迎程度并不亚于世界其它国家，意味着中国移动如果能提供3G版iPhone，其3G用户数量几乎肯定会大幅增长。我通常不是跟风炒作市场的人，但中国移动若在未来几个月推出3G版iPhone，势将改变国内3G市场格局，并有助於中国移动赢回中国联通和中国电信抢走的市场份额。

一句话：中国移动未来几个月可能推出TD-SCDMA网络制式的3G版iPhone，有助於其赢回中国联通和中国电信抢走的市场份额。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙ China Mobile Finally Pushing on 3G 中国移动终於要大力推动3G业务

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Just three months after taking one of its first baby footsteps outside its protected home market, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Shanghai: 600019), China’s second biggest steelmaker, is looking to expand its Southeast Asia footprint by buying into Amsteel Mills, a unit of Malaysia’s Lion Group. (English article) Details are still being hammered out, but this looks like a very mid-sized investment for the sector, with Baosteel set to put in around $1 billion. This deal would follow a March report that Baosteel was preparing to invest in a Vietnamese beverage can-making plant, which, even though no details were disclosed, I suspect involved a similar amount. (previous post) These are exactly the kinds of investments that Baosteel should be making — manageable in size and in friendly markets that are close enough to its home base for it to take a relatively active management role. Furthermore, by working with a partner, Baosteel avoids some of the perils of trying to manage by itself in an unfamiliar market, though having local partners can also have its drawbacks if the two sides disagree on their venture’s development. This kind of a strategy is far superior to that of domestic metals peer Nanshan Aluminum (Shanghai: 600219), which last month announced a plan to build an aluminum extrusion plant on its own in the US, with an initial investment of $160 million. (previous post) I said at the time that Nanshan’s plan was destined to run into big problems and probably fail in the end for a wide range of reasons. In contrast, I really like Baosteel’s latest move, and would expect to see more such investments in developing markets in the next two years.

Bottom line: Baosteel’s new move into Malaysia company is another smart step in its global expansion, representing a mid-sized investment with a strong local partner in a friendly market.

宝钢<600019.SS>不久前刚尝试进军海外，现在又计划收购马来西亚金狮集团旗下子公司Amsteel Mills股份，以拓展东南亚市场。收购细节仍在洽谈中，但宝钢准备对此项目投入大约10亿美元，这看似是一项中等规模的投资。3月有报导称，宝钢计划在越南投资一家饮料罐工厂，尽管细节并未披露，但我估计投资金额与这次不相上下。这恰恰是宝钢应当进行的投资——规模可控，市场友好，位置临近其本土基地，从而能进行相对积极的管理。此外，通过合作方式，宝钢能避免在不熟悉的市场进行完全自主管理的风险。当然，与当地企业合作也存在弊端，双方可能会对合资企业发展策略意见相左。不过总体而言，这种战略远比南山铝业<600219.SS>高明，後者上月宣布，计划在美国自主修建一座铝型材加工厂，初期投资金额为1.6亿美元。我当时说过，南山铝业的计划注定会出现重大问题，很可能会由於一系列原因而以失败告终。相反，我很欣赏宝钢的最新举措，而且预计未来两年中国企业在发展中市场会有更多类似投资。

一句话：宝钢计划收购马来西亚公司股份，是其全球扩张进程中的又一明智之举——即在友好的市场与当地强势的公司合作，进行中等规模的投资。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

◙ Nanshan’s US Aluminum Investment Set to Ring Hollow 南山铝业的美国投资计划注定会失败

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Iron Ore 中国终於下决心：大幅增加国内铁矿石供应

Leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) thinks it may have discovered a new goldmine in China’s new fondness for luxury brands, boasting that a number of top global designers, including Louis Vuitton, Burberry and Gucci, have flocked to its channel in recent months. (company announcement) I must admit this concept is quite intriguing, as such brands are more than willing to spend big advertising bucks to strut their stuff on channels like Youku if it will make more Chinese spend hundreds and even thousands of dollars for everything from high-end designer bags to perfumes and clothing. Youku points out that its channel may be particularly suited to help the designers reach their target audience, as Chinese consumers of luxury goods tend to be younger in general than their Western counterparts. One of my friends who sells to this segment confirms that this is indeed the case, saying flocks of young Chinese now pass through his Hong Kong stores daily and eagerly snap up any luxury goods on offer. Then again, another friend at a local university did a recent study that showed young Chinese consumers prefer to get their luxury brand advertising through more traditional media channels, such as TV and magazines, rather than on the Internet, possibly because the Web is seen as less exclusive and dominated by younger people who tend to have less money. It’s still probably too early to see if the luxury brands will stay with the Web in their China marketing plans.  My prediction is that such brands will indeed discover the Web is a good venue to peddle their wares in China, and will stay with it over the longer term, which would play to the advantage of Youku and rivals like Tudou and Xunlei.

Bottom line: Youku, Tudou and other online video sites are well positioned to gain from a potential explosion in online spending by luxury brands in China.

在线视频网站优酷网YOKU认为，该网站或能在中国热衷奢侈品的大环境中发现新的淘金点。优酷网称，全球众多顶级设计师品牌近几个月纷纷登陆优酷网，例如路易・威登（Louis Vuitton）、巴宝莉（Burberry）和古驰（Gucci）。我必须承认，这个想法相当诱人，因为如果能让更多中国消费者花数百或数千美元，购买高端设计师皮包、香水和服饰等产品，这些品牌自然愿意投入巨额广告费，通过优酷网等渠道进行宣传。优酷网指出，中国奢侈品消费者一般比西方消费者年轻，因此优酷平台可能尤其适合奢侈品牌向目标客户宣传。我的一位圈内朋友证实，情况确实如此，现在他在香港的奢侈品店铺每天都接待许多国内的年轻人，其购买力惊人。我还有一位在大学工作的朋友近期研究发现，中国年轻消费者更希望从电视和杂志等传统媒体渠道获取奢侈品广告信息，而非互联网，可能是因为网络看似没那麽专业，而且用户主要是没什麽钱的年轻人。奢侈品牌是否会在中国市场坚持网络营销手段，现在下结论仍为时过早。但我预计，这些奢侈品商会发现，网络确实是在华营销的一个不错渠道，并将在较长时间内通过网络进行宣传。优酷、土豆和迅雷等视频网站都将因此看到商机。

一句话：奢侈品牌或将在中国投入巨额网络广告宣传费用，从而让优酷网、土豆网等在线视频网站占尽先机。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tudou: Back on the IPO Trail 土豆：重回IPO轨道

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

◙ Youku Ambushes Market with Massive Follow-on, Investors Bite 优酷利用投资者心理大捞一笔

As if car maker BYD’s (HKEx: 1211) problems weren’t bad enough, the sputtering company now must launch its upcoming A-share IPO — which was never guaranteed strong interest to begin with — into a decidedly bearish market that has already seen it scale back the size of the offering. (English article) BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu says his company will use the $200 million it hopes to raise to build a new lithium battery factory in pursuit of its dreams to become an electric car leader. Perhaps that’s where it will really spend the money, but Wang needs to be talking more during this roadshow about how he plans to restore BYD’s flagging sales by revamping its current product line, rather than focusing on a product line that won’t make any major contribution to the company’s business for at least 5 years, and may never make any contribution at all. Shares in BYD, which is 10 percent owned by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, are down by a third in the last three months alone, and have been declining steadily since the middle of last year after inventory issues first started to emerge at this once promising company. I would look for anemic demand during the roadshow for its China IPO, and probably an even weaker debut for the company’s shares, which have been priced at the low end of their range at 18 yuan each. BYD is already fighting a difficult battle by launching its IPO into a decidedly bearish market. But Wang and his company need to change their tone a bit and start focusing on what they will do in the present to turn the company around, rather than on their big hopes for electric vehicles in the future, if they want to prevent this new listing from becoming a total disaster.

Bottom line: BYD needs to start focusing on what it will do to boost weak sales, and stop dwelling on its electric car plans, if it wants to prevent its upcoming IPO from being a total flop.

比亚迪<1211.HK>的问题真是一个接着一个，现在这家汽车制造商必须启动A股IPO，此事从一开始就很难保证市场兴趣，目前市场又处於熊市，公司已经缩减此次募资规模。比亚迪董事长王传福表示，公司会把准备募集的2亿美元用於一座新的锂电池工厂的建设，推动公司实现电动汽车领头羊目标。或许这正是比亚迪真正的资金投入方向，但对公司如何调整当前产品线来重振销售，王传福需要在此次IPO路演中做出进一步解释，毕竟比亚迪的电动车业务在至少五年内不会为公司整体业务做出重大贡献，而且有可能永远也不会做出任何贡献。比亚迪股价单单过去三个月就下挫了三分之一，且自去年中期首现库存问题以来一直稳步下行。我认为比亚迪A股IPO路演很可能需求疲弱，A股首秀或更乏力。比亚迪选择这样一个A股上市时机本已是一场攻坚战，但要防止此次IPO成为一场彻头彻尾的灾难，王传福与其公司还需稍稍调整一下调门，应开始强调当前打算怎样做来扭转公司颓势，而非强调公司未来对电动汽车的宏伟蓝图。

一句话：比亚迪若要防止此次IPO成为一场彻头彻尾的灾难，需把重点放在如何改善当前销售上，而非一味沉迷于电动汽车计划。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ BYD EV Buses Get German Toehold 比亚迪电动车在德国找到立足点

◙ BYD Share Sale: A Steer in the Right Direction 比亚迪A股上市是好事

◙ Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

Facebook isn’t the only global Internet giant looking for a piece of the China social networking pie. My sources tell me that Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies (DST), which itself owns 10 percent of Facebook, is also sniffing the China bushes for potential investments in a bid to capture a piece of what’s likely to become the world’s largest SNS market in the next decade. Facebook has made no secret of its strong desire to enter China over the last five years. After getting locked out of the market a few years ago by Chinese Web blockers, the company approached Kaixin, one of China’s top two SNS sites, a couple of years ago about buying into the company but was ultimately rebuffed. More recently, it has reportedly started talking with search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) about a tie-up even as Beijing has laid down difficult conditions aimed at keeping the US giant out of the market. (previous post) It’s interesting to see that DST is making its own approaches now, which could put it in the strange position of competing with Facebook in the world’s largest Internet market. In a more likely scenario, I would see Facebook and DST teaming up to co-invest with or in a Chinese company rather than each invest individually. The recent sell-off in shares of Renren (NYSE: RENN), China’s leading SNS site, could make that company an interesting potential target. But given the big premiums that established players like Renren and Kaixin are asking right now, I’d say a tie-up with a big Internet name without a big SNS presence, such as Baidu or Tencent (HKEx: 700), could be more likely.

Bottom line: DST is likely to enter the China market in tandem with Facebook, probably by co-investing in a big local Internet player without a major SNS presence.

Facebook不是唯一希望进军中国社交网市场的国际互联网巨头。中国未来10年有望成为全球最大的社交网（SNS）市场，我的消息人士告诉我，拥有Facebook 10%股权的俄罗斯互联网投资公司Digital Sky Technologies（DST）也嗅到了这一投资机遇，试图从中分得一杯羹。过去五年，Facebook毫不掩饰其希望进军中国市场的强烈愿望。自几年前在中国被屏蔽後，Facebook两年前开始与中国两大社交网之一的开心网进行接触，提出并购该公司，但最终遭到拒绝。近期不断有报导称，尽管中国政府创造了些困难条件，Facebook仍开始与中国本土搜索巨头百度谈判，讨论合作事宜。有意思的是，DST如今也采取了行动，致使该公司处於与Facebook竞争中国市场的奇怪位置上。我个人认为更有可能出现的情景是，Facebook和DST将联手投资一家中国企业，或与一家中国企业合作，而不是分别投资。人人网日前在美国股市遭抛售，或成为两公司的潜在投资目标。但鉴於人人网和开心网目前寻求的是高额溢价追捧，我敢说，DST与没有大规模社交网业务的互联网巨头合作的可能性更大，例如百度或腾讯<0700.HK>。

一句话：DST或与Facebook共同投资一家没有大规模社交网业务的中国本土互联网巨头，从而联手进军中国市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Despite China Rebuff, Facebook Going Back for More Facebook明知山有虎，偏向虎山行

◙ Beijing Deals Death Blow to Facebook China Plan – Source 中国宣判Facebook入华计划“死刑”–消息人士

◙ Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal Facebook能否入华？

Just a week after announcing a major shake-up in its top ranks, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) has announced a new head for its China operations in a bid to breathe new life into a market where it has stumbled badly in the last year. (English article; Chinese article) Company veteran Steve Gill’s arrival as new China president comes less than a year after former Motorola executive Rueybin Kao took the company’s top China post. HP said that Kao left in April for “personal reasons” that seems suspiciously more professional than personal. The China shake-up comes just a week after a bigger top-level shuffle at HP (English article), at which time the company said it would refocus  its efforts on the important China and India markets. At least on paper, Gill’s background looks impressive and underscores HP’s realization that it needs to step up its game in China, the world’s second largest PC market where it has stumbled badly over the past year. Gill has led HP’s enterprise business in Korea for the last two years; but more interestingly he was previously the head of UK and Ireland operations, where he is credited with building HP into one of Britain’s largest IT companies. HP and US rival Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) have both turned in disappointing performances in China lately, losing momentum to homegrown giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) in this emerging market where price plays a much bigger role than it does in more mature markets like the United States. Only time will tell if Gill can bring new momentum to HP in China before it slides further still. His experience in emerging markets is a big question mark, but his outsider status could also be just what the company needs to bring a fresh approach to its China operations.

Bottom line: HP’s naming of a new China chief could auger some new and interesting initiatives aimed at helping to stabilize its eroding position in the world’s second biggest PC market.

惠普<HPQ.N>在一周前刚对高层进行了重大人事调整，近期又宣布任命史蒂夫•吉尔（Steve Gill）担任中国区总裁，力求给惠普在中国市场带来新的生机，去年惠普在中国市场表现糟糕。公司老将吉尔担任惠普中国总裁前，摩托罗拉前高管高瑞彬在这一职位工作了仅不到一年。惠普称，高瑞彬4月离职是出於“个人原因”，但估计公司原因多於个人原因。一周前，惠普高层出现重大人事变动，公司当时表示，将重新关注中国和印度市场。至少从履历上来看，吉尔的背景令人印象深刻，这也表明，惠普意识到需要在中国市场加快步伐。吉尔过去两年负责惠普在韩国的企业业务；但更有意思的是，他曾任惠普英国和爱尔兰区总裁，并推动惠普成为英国最大的IT公司之一。惠普和戴尔<DELL.O>近期在中国的业绩均令人失望，表现不及联想<0992.HK>和台湾宏基<2353.TW>，中国市场与美国等更成熟的市场相比，价格因素的作用更大。吉尔是否能在惠普进一步下滑前，提振其在中国的业绩，只有时间才能证明一切。他在新兴市场的经验是一大问题，但惠普可能正好需要其“局外者形象”，为惠普在中国的运行注入新鲜血液。

一句话：惠普任命中国区新总裁，或能带来一些有意思的新举措，帮助惠普在中国市场稳定其渐遭蚕食的市场份额。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Acer: A Bumpy Road Ahead 宏碁：前路坎坷

◙ Intel’s Move Nods to China Gadget Clout, Smells Slightly of Desperation 英特尔人事调动突显中国市场影响力

◙ Micron Nods to China’s Gadget Clout 美光科技押宝中国电子器件市场

Video sharing site Xunlei may be delaying its upcoming IPO due to the China sell-off on Wall Street  (previous post), but the bloodbath doesn’t seem to be deterring rival site Tudou. Chinese media are reporting that Tudou, whose name means potato in Chinese, has revived stalled plans for a New York IPO, after suspending those plans last fall while founder Gary Wang worked through a messy divorce. (English article; Chinese article)  The reports say Tudou, which has yet to turn a profit, has filed its initial documents with the US securities regulator, and that it aims to list by the end of this month. Many will recall that Tudou was in a race with another rival, Youku (NYSE: YOKU), last fall to become China’s first publicly listed video sharing site — a race that Tudou ultimately lost when Wang’s divorce proceedings got in the way. Later reports emerged that Wang might be looking to sell Tudou, though the company insisted all along it was still aiming for an IPO. (previous post) This current plan doesn’t really surprise me, though I  question how smart it is. Wang, like many other Chinese entrepreneurs, clearly wants to stay at the head of his company, hence his preference for an IPO versus a sale of Tudou to a rival. Furthermore, he’s probably so relieved that his divorce is finally resolved that he’s blind to the fact that his company — already less attractive due to its money-losing status — will IPO into a market where sentiment toward new China listings has grown ice cold over the last 2 months. That shift has already prompted rival Xunlei, which has a much stronger financial background, to delay its IPO. If it moves forward with its plan to list in the next couple of weeks, which seems likely, look for Tudou shares to price weakly, and to stumble out of the gate with a weak to outright disastrous trading debut.

Bottom line: Tudou’s rush to IPO into one of the weakest markets in more than a year will end with a weak pricing and potentially disastrous trading debut.

近来中国概念股在华尔街遭遇滑铁卢，中国视频分享网站迅雷可能会推迟IPO进程，但竞争对手土豆网似乎不为所动。据中国媒体报导，土豆网创始人王微与前妻已就离婚财产纠纷达成和解，网站之前暂停的IPO计划重回正轨。报导称土豆网已向美国证券交易委员会提交监管文件，计划最迟本月底前上市。很多人应该都记得土豆去年秋天与另外一家竞争对手优酷网<YOKU.N>展开上市赛跑，当时土豆因王微离婚纠纷而在这一竞赛中最终败北，优酷最终成功上市，成为中国首家上市的视频分享网站。稍後曾有报导称王微有意出售土豆，不过公司一直坚称目标仍为IPO。我虽怀疑土豆当前计划是否明智，但对此举本身我并不感意外。王微像很多中国企业家一样，明显希望继续掌舵，所以他会倾向於IPO，而不是把土豆出售给竞争对手。而且，离婚纠纷终於尘埃落定，王微大大松了一口气，以至于根本没有注意过去两个月来华尔街对中国概念股的态度跌至冰冷。华尔街的态度转变已经让迅雷推迟了IPO计划。如果未来几周土豆继续推进IPO，土豆股价定价可能非常弱，上市首日就有可能惨淡破发。

一句话：在目前华尔街冷眼对待中国概念股的情况下，土豆匆忙赴美IPO，最终定价可能很低，而且上市首秀可能灾难收场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku Ambushes Market with Massive Follow-on, Investors Bite 优酷利用投资者心理大捞一笔

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

Chinese firms are finally starting to take action in a bid to halt the New York sell-off that has seen some of their shares lose half their value or more in the last few weeks. Leading the charge are chip designer Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) and online retailer Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), which have both announced share purchasing programs to try and halt their recent slides. (Spreadtrum announcement; Dangdang announcement) It’s not hard to understand why they made their announcements: Spreadtrum shares were down more than 40 percent since mid-April before its announcement, though they bounced back 7 percent after disclosing the plan to buy up to $100 million worth of company stock. Dangdang, meantime, has tanked by more than half over the same period, as investors dump China stocks in droves amid recent concerns over accounting issues at some Chinese companies, and also following a generally broad-based rally that had seen many such stocks rise considerably over the last year. Another victim of the sell-off appears to be video sharing site Xunlei, which Chinese media are reporting has decided to delay its $200 million upcoming Nasdaq IPO due to the poor market sentiment. (Chinese article; previous post) I would look for more of these kinds of announcements in the weeks ahead, as the companies seek to halt a skid in their share prices that is probably overblown. I personally don’t trade in these stocks because I write about them; but if I were an investor, I would say that now could be a good time to start looking at some of these for good bargains, as the accounting concerns really shouldn’t be an issue for the larger players with market caps of $1 billion or more.

Bottom line: Look for more US-listed China firms to launch share purchasing programs to support their sagging stocks and pick up shares at relative bargain prices.

过於几周，部分赴美上市的中国公司股票贬值至少一半，如今这些公司终於开始采取措施，试图阻止纽约股市抛售其股票。率先采取行动的是芯片设计商展讯通信（Spreadtrum）<SPRD.O>和当当网<DANG.N>，两家公司均宣布回购股票计划，从而结束近期其股票下跌的状况。找出其中的原因并不难：从4月中旬到展讯宣布上述决定前，其股价跌幅逾40%，展讯宣布回购价值高达1亿美元的公司股票後，其股价回升了7%。当当网股价同期跌幅逾一半，原因是投资者近期担忧，部分中国赴美上市公司会计信息存在问题，况且去年许多此类股票大涨，因而投资者纷纷抛售中国公司股票了解获利。另一名受害者是视频分享网站迅雷，中国媒体报导称，因为美国市况不佳，迅雷已决定推迟其价值2亿美元的纳斯达克IPO（首次公开发行）。我预计，未来几周还会有更多中国公司发表类似声明，以阻止其股价继续下跌。因为我的工作是报导上市公司新闻，所以我个人从不进行这些股票交易；但如果我是投资者，我想说，这是低价买进某些股票的好时机，因为对於市值逾10亿美元的较大公司，真的不用担忧其会计问题。

一句话：预计将有更多在美上市的中国企业宣布回购股票计划，以阻止其股价下跌，不妨以相对较低的价位加仓。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

◙ Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

◙ Dud Looms With Shanda Literature Offering 盛大文学上市令人不解