Yingli, Trina Sparkle With Big New Orders 英利和天合光能突出重围

After a steady stream of bad news in one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns, solar panel makers Yingli (NYSE: YGE) and Trina (NYSE: TSL) have at least temporarily broken out of the gloom with announcements of two major new deals. The more significant of the two has come from Yingli, which said it will sell 110 megawatts worth of modules to a state-owned Chinese hydropower producer. (English announcement) This deal comes just a month after Yingli secured a $180 million loan from two Chinese state-owned banks. (previous post) These two announcements in such close succession seem to be telling the market that China is finally stepping up to assist its carefully nurtured but struggling solar sector, and that Yingli is perhaps particularly well connected to take advantage of future government support. Investors certainly seem to have liked the news, bidding up Yingli shares by 7 percent in Thursday trade in New York, though they are still down by about a third from their levels in March and April. In the other deal, Trina announced it will sell 55 megawatts worth of modules to be used at an auto-making plant in France. (company announcement) This deal looks much more typical of normal sales in the market, which have tended to go to European and American buyers who now account for the lion’s share of global solar panel sales. Investors also welcomed the Trina news, bidding its shares up by a more modest 3.5 percent, amid a broader rally that saw most solar shares gain 1-2 percent. Look for more solar deals to come from Chinese buyers a in the months ahead, as Beijing ratchets up its buying to support this sector. It will be especially interesting to see who wins those deals, as those companies will be the best-connected ones with the greatest chance of weathering the current downturn.

Bottom line: A new major deal for a domestic hydropower maker to purchase solar modules from Yingli shows Beijing is turning up its efforts to support its struggling sector.

在经历行业有史以来经历的最严重衰退之际,英利<YGE.N>和天合光能<TSL.N>公布了两项新签署的重大协议,至少是暂时突出重围了。其中英利所签署的这一项协议尤为重要——将向中国一家水电开发商供应11万千瓦组件。而此前一个月,英利从两家国有银行获得了1.8亿美元贷款。这麽短时间内的这两件事,似乎是在告诉市场,中国终於开始悉心培养举步艰难的太阳能产业,而有着广泛关系网的英利公司尤其能利用好政府的支持。投资者肯定喜欢这个消息——周四英利在纽约的股价上涨7%,不过经历过3月份和4月份暴跌三分之一後,该公司股价依然较低。而天合光能获得的协议则是向法国一家汽车制造商供应5.5万千瓦组件。这看起来是市场中很正常的一笔交易,因为如今欧洲和美国制造商购买了全球大部分的太阳能电池板。投资者也对天合光能的这个新消息感到振奋——在大多数太阳能公司股价上升1%-2%之际,天合光能的股价上升了3.5%。随着中国政府积极扶持下,未来一个月期待会有更多来自中国买主的太阳能协议。看看谁会赢得合约是很有意思的一件事情,看上去关系网强大的企业最有希望赢得协议,抵御住目前的市场严寒。

一句话:国内一家水电开发商从英利购买太阳能组件的消息说明,中国政府开始扶植太阳能产业。

Related postings 相关文章:

China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

Solar Makers Shine Hopes on New US Commerce Secretary 中国太阳能生产商寄望於新任美国商务部长

Trina Doubles Warranty in Search of Sales 天合光能:延长产品质保年限以提振销售

China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动:王建宙董事长要退休?

Chinese media are reporting there’s been another big move at the top of China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), a further indication that long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou could be preparing to retire. The latest move will see Xi Guohua take over from Wang as party secretary for China Mobile’s state-owned parent, arguably the second most important position at the company after the chairmanship itself. (Chinese article) Xi’s appointment comes just a year after Li Yue took over the president’s position at the listed company from Wang. This latest move would leave Wang with just the chairman’s title, and will no doubt add fuel to talk over the last year or so that he will soon retire from the company, which seems likely. So, what does it all mean? Probably very little, to be honest, as the top posts at all the major telcos are all held by party officials, many with engineering and technical backgrounds. Li was trained as an engineer, and Xi appears to have spent most of his recent career at the country’s telecoms regulator in various posts. The appointment of such well-connected bureaucrats would normally look good for a company in this highly-regulated market, except that the top ranks at China Mobile’s two rivals, Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), are also dominated by such bureaucrats. I would say to look for Wang’s retirement by the end of this year, which will deprive it of a charismatic leader but little else. After that happens, look for the company to maintain its current direction which, as I’ve previously reported, could see it finally start to aggressively promote its 3G service if and when it signs a deal to offer an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone for its 3G network.

Bottom line: The latest appointment at the top of China Mobile points to the departure of Chairman Wang Jianzhou by year end, but don’t look for any major changes in company strategy.

中国媒体纷纷报导中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N> 高层的人事变动情况,进一步说明,王建宙董事长可能要退休。最新一轮人事调整中,奚国华将取代王建宙出任中国移动党组书记,这是中国移动内部仅次于董事长的一个职位。而一年前,李跃取代王建宙,出任了上市公司中国移动的总裁职位。如此一来,王继凯仅剩董事长头衔,这毫无疑问地让人们更加确信,他将很快退休。那麽,这一切又都意味着什麽呢?说实话,也许没什麽,因为这些大型电信企业的高层领导,都由党内官员担任,其中很多是工程和技术背景。李跃是工程师出身,奚国华职业生涯多数时候是在中国电信监管部门担任过多个职位。在这样一个受到高度监管的行业里,安排这些关系网广泛的官员任职,对这家公司看起来是好事。我估计王建宙会在年底退休,期待这家公司沿着现行的方向前进,大力推行3G服务,并拭目以待该公司是否及何时与苹果合作推出适用於中国移动3G网络的iPhone。

一句话:中国移动最新的高层人事变动情况说明,王建宙可能在年底退休,但估计公司其他战略不会有大的变动。

Related postings 相关文章:

Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

China Mobile Finally Pushing on 3G 中国移动终於要大力推动3G业务

Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

SMIC Rumbles with Talk of Leadership Change 媒体风传中芯国际领导层变动

Media are awash with talk of a potential major leadership shake-up at SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), China’s top microchip maker, following the death earlier this week of the company’s chairman from cancer. (English article) SMIC shares were suspended from trading on Thursday at the company’s request, and one report says that David Wang, who was brought in a year and a half ago to rescue the struggling company, was voted off the company’s board after holders of 58 percent of SMIC’s stock voted against him at the company’s annual general meeting. (English article) Since a majority of SMIC stock is held by various Chinese government entities, this sounds very much like a vote of no confidence by SMIC’s major shareholders and could foreshadow Wang’s imminent departure. Chinese media are also reporting that if Wang goes, then many of his top management team could leave with him, throwing the company into further turmoil. (Chinese article) The whole upheaval would come as quite a surprise to me, as the low-key Wang seemed to be doing a good job of turning SMIC around, closing unprofitable facilities and focusing on its core business to post its first profits in four years. Perhaps he lost an important ally when Chairman Jiang Shangzhou died earlier this week. Whatever the case, this kind of management shake-up, if it happens, is likely to spell turmoil for SMIC in the months ahead, just as it seemed to be regaining its footing and starting to realize some of its potential.

Bottom line: Look for big volatility in SMIC stock when trading resumes, due to uncertainty over its future direction if the current CEO and architect of its turn-around leaves.

中芯国际董事长江上舟因病去世後,众多媒体在猜测中芯国际<SMI.N>可能出现的领导层变动情况。周四中芯国际股票停盘,有报导称,一年半前加入该公司的首席执行长(CEO)王宁国未能当选进入董事会,因反对票数达58%。因中芯国际大部分股权由中国政府部门掌握,这个消息看起来像是中芯国际的股东对王宁国没有信心,也可能预示着王宁国会离职。中国媒体也报导称,如果王宁国离职,他的高层管理团队也可能随他离开,让公司陷入更大的困境。我对整件事感到相当吃惊,因为低调的王宁国帮助中芯国际走出困境,他关闭不赢利的部门,让公司专注于其核心业务,实现了四年来的首次盈利。也许江上舟去世後,他失去了一个重要的盟友。无论怎样,这次领导层地震可能预示着中芯国际未来几个月会面临更大的动荡。

一句话:如果现任CEO离职,中芯国际未来发展方向将面临不确定性,估计中芯国际开盘後股价会有大幅波动。

Related postings 相关文章:

SMIC: Forging a Better Future?

Micron Nods to China’s Gadget Clout 美光科技押宝中国电子器件市场

Intel’s Move Nods to China Gadget Clout, Smells Slightly of Desperation 英特尔人事调动突显中国市场影响力

Diageo’s China Baijiu Bid: Aiming for the Middle 帝亚吉欧瞄准中国中档白酒市场

It’s not often that there’s a good chance to write about the Chinese spirits market, which could get a nice and much-needed shake-up as European giant Diageo (London: DGE) prepares to take control of a decidedly mid-tier Chinese brand of baijiu — the most common form of Chinese liquor — called Suijingfang. (English article) This deal will see Diageo, which already owned a stake in the spirits’ maker, publicly listed Sichuan Chengdu Quanxing Group, take majority control of the company in a bid to take it onto the national stage. In my view, China is a market that’s really ready for a good, solid mid-tier brand, which is what Diageo specializes in through its stable of solid mid-range brands like Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff. The market is already home to a handful of super high-end brands, most notably Maotai and Wuliangye, which sell for ridiculously high prices of hundreds of dollars per bottle, and are usually pulled out when a host wants to impress his guests at a banquet but are seldom used when friends go out drinking because they’re simply too expensive. After those brands, the market is highly fragmented, with local names usually commanding most of the mid-end market. If Diageo plays its cards right, it should be lining up Shuijingfang, which is already attractively packaged and has some name recognition, as a brand of choice for white-collar Chinese when they go out for a night of drinking. If that works, I could even see Diageo eventually exporting this liquor as an exotic brand for foreigner tipplers looking for a fiery taste of China without having to pay hundreds of dollars for it.

Bottom line: Diageo could use its experience as a savvy seller of mid-tier spirits to take a big slice of the fragmented China market with its new purchase of one such brand.

对我来说,好好写写中国白酒市场的机会并不常有。现在有消息说,英国帝亚吉欧洋酒集团<DGE.L>即将成功入主中国中端白酒品牌水井坊<600779.SS>,这可能会给中国白酒市场带来一次有益和必要的冲击。帝亚吉欧已经持有水井坊第一大股东全兴集团49%的股份,现在中国商务部已批准帝亚吉欧进一步收购全兴集团4%的股权,从而使帝亚吉欧成为全兴的控股股东,并间接成为水井坊的第一大股东。在我看来,中国的中端白酒市场实在需要一个叫得响的品牌,而拥有Johnnie Walker和Smirnoff等中端名酒品牌的帝亚吉欧正好是这个领域的专家。虽然中国市场上已有一些高端白酒品牌,如天价的茅台<600519.SS>和五粮液<000858.SZ>,但这些酒在平常朋友聚会的场合很少喝,因为太贵了。除了这些高档酒之外,中国的白酒市场其实非常零碎,各地的中端市场通常被本地品牌占据。帝亚吉欧公司如果策略得当,就有望把已经拥有精美包装和一定知名度的水井坊打造成中国白领晚间聚饮的白酒首选。若果真如此,那麽水井坊甚至有可能出口,让外国人不必花大价钱就可以品味火辣的中国白酒。

一句话:帝亚吉欧公司可以利用自己在中档酒类市场的经验和此次收购,在中国白酒市场打出一番天下。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙  YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊:甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

Starbucks, Maxim’s Divorce: Bitter Ending or Sweet Times Ahead? 星巴克与美心闹“离婚”

Unilever Helps China See the Light Behind Free Markets 联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进

 

 

Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

Since being set free earlier this year by its parent Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter, has taken a frenzy of initiatives to leverage its wildly popular service to become a viable stand-alone business and eventually make an IPO. I’m a big fan of Weibo, which in its short 2-year life has become a household word among Chinese youth, but I have my doubts about a new plan to launch its service in Japan with a local partner. (English article; Chinese article) This latest initiative sounds like too many previous ones by Chinese companies, which have all found mostly disappointment in the tough Japanese market. The list of China net firms that have tried and largely failed in Japan is long and includes such big names as Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP), just to name a few. While both are Asian markets, the closed nature of Japan’s market in general and the differing tastes between Chinese and Japanese have made cross-border media tie-ups very difficult to execute successfully. Even China’s online game operators, which should theoretically have lots to offer in a  big gaming market like Japan, have found little or no success in their limited forays into that market. But perhaps even more important, Weibo will have to compete with the real Twitter in Japan, as well as any other homegrown players in the market — a strong contrast to its protected home market where the real Twitter is blocked and there is no competition from global players. I don’t know how much of its resources Weibo is spending on its first expansion abroad, but I hope it’s not too much as this effort is almost 100 percent guaranteed to fail and could become a big distraction as Weibo tries to earn its first profits.

Bottom line: Weibo’s first foreign foray into Japan is a bad call, and is bound to drain resources and end in disappointment in the company’s drive towards profitability.

自今年早些时候从新浪<SINA.O>独立出来後,新浪微博采取了一系列积极举措,欲借助其受欢迎度成为一家独立的公司,最终能进行首次公开募股(IPO)。短短两年内,新浪微博就让中国年轻人耳熟能详,我也很喜欢新浪微博。但我个人对其与日本当地企业合作计划存有疑虑。许多中国公司之前都有类似举措,但大多都在严酷的日本市场折戟沉沙。试图进军日本市场但基本以失败告终的中国网络公司包括百度<BIDU.O>、阿里巴巴<1688.HK>和携程<CTRP.O>,而这只不过是我列出来的几家而已。中国和日本同属亚洲,但日本市场整体闭塞的性质及中日民众不同的口味,使得中日媒体合作难以成功。甚至连中国网络游戏运营商打入日本市场的有限努力也鲜有成功案例,虽然在理论上,日本这一规模庞大的游戏市场应不乏商机。而可能更重要的一点是,新浪微博将在日本与正版Twitter和其它本土品牌短兵相接。这与中国国内市场情况截然不同,因为 Twitter在中国被屏蔽,新浪微博在国内不用面对海外同行的竞争。我不知道新浪微博这次首次迈出国门会动用多少资源,但我希望不会太多,因为这一努力几乎注定会失败,并可能成为其争取首次录得盈利道路上的巨大阻碍。

一句话:新浪微博把进军日本作为拓展海外市场的先声并非明智之举,势将浪费许多资源并以失败告终,同时影响公司的盈利计划。

Related postings 相关文章:

Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

After years of criticizing the US for its cultural hegemony, China seems to be finally realizing that it can use Hollywood’s clout to its advantage as we’re seeing in a couple of newly announced deals that could also mean good news for Hollywood executives who have been trying to figure out for years how to make money in China. In the more significant of the two deals, video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) has announced a tie-up with Warner Bros. (NYSE: TWX) that will see it offer up to 450 Warner movie titles to subscribers to Youku’s premium service. (company announcement) This deal is clearly part of the broader drive by Youku and other video sharing sites like those operated by Tudou, Xunlei and Tencent (HKEx: 700) to offer legitimate programs and movies as Beijing tries to wean them off the pirated material they have offered up until now. This migration is similar to what happened in the US about a decade ago, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see lots of similar deals between other video sharing sites and content producers in the future. (previous post) Separately, TCL (Shenzhen: 000100; HKEx: 1070) has announced a smaller but equally interesting deal that will see it promote its TVs globally with Paramount Pictures (NYSE: VIAb) in connection with the release of the studio’s latest “Transformers” film. (company announcement) This move looks like a smart one to me, as young consumers who will flock to see this film are the same kind of customers that might consider TCL’s less-pricey but still good quality LCD televisions. As I’ve said before, I think that TCL is executing well in the last year after its previous slip-ups, and this marketing tie-up looks like just the kind of approach it should be taking to build itself into China’s first truly global electronics brand.

Bottom line: New Hollywood tie-ups by Youku and TCL look like smart moves for both companies, who are realizing the marketing potential of tie-ups with big-name films.

多少年来中国一直批评美国文化霸权,但随着近日几项新合同的签署,似乎它已终於意识到也可以将好莱坞的影响力为我所用。新合同对好莱坞高管也是好事,因为多年来他们一直在探索如何赚中国市场的钱。其中比较重要的一个合同是:优酷<YOKU.N>宣布与华纳兄弟<TWX.N>合作,由优酷通过视频付费点播服务提供450部华纳影片。该项合作显然属於优酷、土豆、迅雷与腾讯<0700.HK>等视频分享网站努力按照政府指示、多多提供正版节目的举措之一。这一动向大约与美国十年前的情况类似,所以未来如听到更多视频分享网站与内容产出方合作的消息,我不会感到意外。另外,TCL集团<000100.SZ> <1070.HK>也与派拉蒙影业<VIAb.N>展开合作,协议规模虽然相对小一些,但同样有意思。根据合约,TCL将成为派拉蒙新片《变形金刚3》的国际推广电视品牌。我认为此举非常聪明,因为该片观众与TCL平价高质LCD彩电的目标客户为同一群体。正如我以前所说,TCL 经过先前的失误後,过去一年中经营得很不错,而此次市场结盟看来正是TCL打造中国第一家真正全球性电子品牌所需要的策略。

一句话:优酷、TCL与好莱坞结盟看来都属明智之举,他们意识到了与知名制片公司结盟的市场潜力。

Related postings 相关文章:

TV Programers Dial Up Success on Internet 电视电影制片商迎来网络商机

Youku’s Luxurious Dream 优酷网的奢侈品梦想

TCL Comeback Gains Momentum with Italy Deals TCL牵手意大利 复苏之势获动力

Baidu’s Mobile Plan: Do We Need Another OS? 百度手机操作系统计划有没有市场?

There’s been a flurry of reports in the Chinese media recently about Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) plans to roll out a mobile operating system later this year, with some saying the OS will make its debut very soon (Chinese article) and others saying it will be closer to year-end (Chinese article). Reports that China’s leading search engine was developing such a system first emerged earlier this year (previous post), and my response to all the buzz now is similar to what I said before: Does the world really need another mobile OS? But first things first and let’s discuss this new OS. Most intriguingly, some of the reports say that Baidu’s new OS will be based on Android, the wildly popular open-source smartphone mobile operating system developed by Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). If those reports are true, which seems quite possible as I doubt Baidu would develop a new system completely on its own, then this new system would see the two companies, which have a complex history of cooperation and competition, coming together to create a potent mix in the mobile OS market. Most will recall that Google pulled out of the China search market last year after a high-profile dispute with Beijing over censorship, so this could provide yet another back-door for Google to get back into the market, which it is already doing through similar Android tie-ups with most of China’s major cellphone makers. But my main question is this: Since most domestic and foreign cellphone makers that sell into China already use their own variations of Android in many of their smartphones, who exactly would want to drop their own designs in favor of a Baidu-developed OS, which might come with additional licensing fees and force the cellphone maker to work with Baidu? The answer is few will be interested, with the result that Baidu’s mobile OS is likely to fail, like many of its other recent initiatives.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new plans for a mobile OS, possibly based on Google’s Android system, are set to fail because no cellphone makers will want to use it.

中国媒体近来广泛报导百度<BIDU.O>计划於今年推出一款手机操作系统,一些报导称该系统很快会亮相,而另外一些报导说将在今年年底前推出。有关百度推手机操作系统的报导最早出现在今年早些时候,我当时也写过一篇博文。我这次的反应与以前类似:世界真需要一个新的手机操作系统吗?不过首先还是先说一下这个新操作系统什麽样。最有意思的是,一些报导称百度的新操作系统是以谷歌<GOOG.O> Android开源智能手机操作系统为基础的。如果报导属实(相当有可能,因为我觉得百度不大可能完全从头开发一套新系统),那麽新系统将见证这两家关系复杂的企业在手机操作系统市场创造出一个潜力巨大的混血产品。很多人都应记得谷歌去年撤离了中国搜索市场,而这次与百度的潜在合作有可能成为谷歌回归中国的又一道後门。但我的主要问题是:因为多数中外手机制造商本来就在使用各种版本的Android系统,谁会想要放弃自己的设计,去支持另一个由百度开发的操作系统,而且有可能需要交额外的许可证费用,还不得不与百度合作呢?答案是有兴趣者将寥寥,结果可能会是百度手机操作系统夭折,落得与该公司近来其他举措一样的下场。

一句话:百度手机操作系统计划前景堪忧,因为大概没有哪家手机制造商愿意使用。

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Baidu-Powered Cellphones? I Don’t Think So 百度也想做手机?恐怕没戏

Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

Latest Sale Exposes Sputtering China Digital Revolution 上海文广股权低售凸显中国数字改革路漫漫

China’s drive to consolidate its cable industry is designed in part to spur development of state-of-the-art digital delivery networks that will someday offer Chinese consumers the wide variety of programming and other services now available through fast-developing on-demand networks in the West. But that digital dream is still very much just a distant wish, at least based on the latest transaction to make the local headlines. Chinese media are reporting that Shanghai Automotive has put its 19 percent stake in SiTV, the digital TV operator under Shanghai Media Group, China’s second largest media conglomerate, up for sale for a mere 25 million yuan, or just $3.7 million. (English article) Some quick math will show that the price — if Shanghai Automotive finds a buyer — would translate to a valuation of just under $20 million for SiTV, which was launched with much fanfare around 5 years ago as digital platform of the future. Anyhow who believes that China will hum with digital delivery networks in anytime soon should go ahead and buy up this stake, which would represent a huge bargain as it represents the dominant player in the country’s second biggest media market. But my guess is that Shanghai Automotive is selling this stake largely because it sees the investment going nowhere, at least in the near term, and it’s unlikely to find many buyers in the market. I’ve said in previous posts that China’s latest drive to consolidate its cable TV networks and create a giant with the resources to forge a national digital network seems to be gaining momentum, and could now stand a 50 percent chance of success. (previous post) But such consolidation could still be at least 5 years off or even more. In the meantime, local digital networks like SiTV are likely to languish, and perhaps even be overtaken as video Internet companies like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Xunlei, and fixed-line telcos like China Telecom (HKEx: 728) take the lead in digital delivery systems.

Bottom line: The low valuation for Shanghai’s leading digital cable network operator based on a recent sale reflects the poor state of such networks in China.

中国推动有线电视业发展的努力,其中部分在於推动先进的数字传输网络的发展,後者终有一天会向中国消费者提供目前已在西方推广的按需点播的电视节目和其他服务。但中国的这一数字梦想现在还只是一个遥远的期待,至少我们从媒体报导的一项最新交易中可见一斑。中国媒体报导称,上海汽车信息产业投资有限公司转让其持有的上海文广传媒集团旗下的上海文广互动电视有限公司19%的股权,挂牌价只有2,500万元(370万美元)。简单算一下你会发现,如果上汽真的以这一价格找到买家,意味着上海文广互动的估值不过2000万美元。任何认为中国会很快启用数字电视传输网络的人都应该立刻行动,成全这笔性价比很高的买卖,因上海文广互动是中国第二大媒体市场的佼佼者。但我认为,上汽出售这些股权,主要是因为它认为这笔投资看不到出路,至少短期是这样,而且他们也不太可能在市场上找到很多买家。我在之前的博客中曾说过,中国近期加强有线电视网络的工作,以及整合各种资源打造一个全国性数字网络的传媒巨头的努力似乎正蓄势待发,且现在可能有50%的成功机率。但这种整合可能至少还要五年或更长时间。同时,上海文广互动等区域数字网络很可能被冷落,甚者可能被优酷<YOKU.N>、迅雷等视频网络公司和中国电信<CHA.N>等固网电信运营商超越,因为後者在数字传输系统中处於领先地位。

一句话:低价出售上海文广股权反映出中国类似数字电视网络的可悲境遇。

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TV Programers Dial Up Success on Internet 电视电影制片商迎来网络商机

Cable Consolidation Crosses Provincial Lines 中国广电行业跨省并购案

China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心:有线电视行业整合

Solar Makers Shine Hopes on New US Commerce Secretary 中国太阳能生产商寄望於新任美国商务部长

As Beijing glows over the naming of US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke as the first ethnic Chinese to become US ambassador to China, the nation’s struggling solar panel sector is more focused on Locke’s replacement, longtime California power industry executive John Bryson. President Obama reportedly hand-picked Bryson, chief executive of one of California’s top two power producers, in large part for his rich background in building and operating alternate energy generating facilities, even as much of the rest of the nation shies away from such plants despite attractive government incentives. Chinese media are saying that Bryson, with his strong ties to the power generating community, has been given a mandate to breathe new life into green energy production in the US, which, if successful, could mean a nice boost for  China’s solar panel makers who are now struggling with one of their worst-ever downturns as building of new solar plants worldwide slows with the fading of the global economic crisis. (English article) Bryson’s pending arrival seems to have helped Chinese solar stocks, which are up 5-10 percent over the last three weeks from their previous lows during the China sell-off on Wall Street. Even industry laggard LDK (NYSE: LDK) saw its shares get a nice lift, rising 5 percent on Monday after it announced a relatively modest $10 million share buyback. (company announcement) I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bryson bringing in some major new orders for the solar industry by the end of this year, which will probably benefit the US players most but should also help Chinese companies that supply over half the world’s current capacity. If the Chinese companies are smart, they should start looking for US partners in both the power and panel production space who can help them capitalize on new business likely to flow as Bryson gets down to work.

Bottom line: The naming of a solar energy booster with strong private sector ties as new US commerce secretary should provide a boost for the global solar panel sector in the next 12 months.

当中国还在为美国商务部长骆家辉被提名为首个华裔美国驻华大使而欢欣鼓舞时,中国苦苦挣扎的太阳能面板业的注意力则更多地放在了骆家辉的接替者–约翰•布兰森(John Bryson)身上。布兰森是加州最大的能源企业之一的董事长兼执行总裁。据报导,奥巴马提名布兰森为商务部长候选人在很大程度上是因为布兰森在创建和运营替代能源发电设施上有着丰富背景。尽管美国政府推出了诱人的刺激政策,但美国很多地区都对类似替代能源发电厂敬而远之。中国媒体报导称,在发电行业有着超强人脉的布兰森被赋予的一项重要任务就是,让美国的绿色能源生产焕发新生机。如果成功,这可能是对中国太阳能面板制造商的一次有利推动。随着全球经济危机的逐渐消散,在全球范围内修建新的太阳能发电厂的步伐逐步放缓,中国的太阳能面板制造商们正遭遇着业界最严重的不景气阶段之一。而布兰森即将走马上任的消息,给美国股市内的中国太阳能产业股带来了春风,在惨遭过去三周对中国概念股的抛售後,目前纷纷取得了5-10%不等的反弹,即便是业界的後进者——江西赛维LDK太阳能<LDK.N>的股价也上涨不少,在宣布了1,000万美元的股票回购计划後,赛维LDK的股价周一扬升5%。如果看到布兰森在今年年底前为太阳能产业带来某些新的重要订单,我并不会感到意外。受益最大的可能当属美国太阳能生产商,同时也有助於占世界光伏市场一半产能的中国企业。如果中国企业聪明的话,他们现在应开始在发电和面板生产领域,同时寻找一旦布兰森走马上任可能给他们带来新商机的美国合作。

一句话:奥巴马任命一位与民间太阳能行业关系密切的能源推动者出任美国商务部长,会在未来一年推动全球太阳能面板行业的发展。

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Trina Doubles Warranty in Search of Sales 天合光能:延长产品质保年限以提振销售

China Backs Solar Firms With Europe Financing 中国继续支持国内太阳能企业

Beijing Warms Up Solar Sector 中国政府向太阳能产业伸出援手

AU Plays Catch-Up With China Panel Plan 台湾友达在大陆LCD面板争夺战中占得先机

After a wait of more than a year, Taiwan’s AU Optronics (Taipei: 2409) has finally won approval to produce state-of-the-art LCD panels in China, which it looks set to do by buying into an existing panel maker in the city of Kunshan near Shanghai, Chinese media are reporting. (English article; Chinese article) It’s been quite interesting to watch this race develop, which has seen the world’s top 4 panel makers, AU and hometown rival Chimei Innolux (Taipei: 3481), compete with the Korean pair of Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and LG Display (Seoul: 034220) to be first to build an 8.5-generation LCD plant in China. LG and Samsung have both already been approved to build their own Chinese plants, and in an interesting twist media reported in April that Samsung would take a 15 percent stake in domestic TV leader TCL’s (Shenzhen: 000001) 8.5-generation LCD plant in Shenzhen. AU’s tie-up with Kunshan Longfei — under which AU will take over management of the company — should help the Taiwanese company quickly regain any lost ground on LG Display and Samsung, which have to build up their production facilities from zero. The irony in all this is that LCD sales will probably start to slow in the next few years as more and more homes already have big-screen TVs, just as all the new Chinese production is hitting the market. That will make the race even more interesting, as whoever gets to market first will probably beat the glut, at least initially.

Bottom line: AU Optronics has gotten a slight lead on its Korean rivals in their race to build new LCD plants in China, though the sector faces a supply glut when all the new capacity comes online.

大陆媒体报导称,在沉寂了一年多之後,台湾友达<2409.TW>终於通过参股昆山龙飞光电,获得了在中国生产世界先进水平的LCD(液晶显示器)面板的许可。静观世界四大顶级面板商的竞争是一件很有意思的事。韩国三星电子<005930.KS>、LG Display<034220.KS>和台湾友达、奇美电子<3481.TW>均想率先在中国创建8.5代LCD面板生产厂。LG和三星电子早已获准在中国修建面板工厂,而中国媒体四月份则报导了一则有趣的新闻,三星将获得中国电视制造商TCL在深圳8.5代LCD面板厂15%的股份。台湾友达和龙飞光电的合作,应有助於友达迅速收复被LG和三星电子占领的失地,因後两者需从无到有创建他们的生产厂。而最讽刺的在於,当上述公司这些中国工厂的产品数年後投放市场之时,届时LCD的销量可能已呈现放缓之势,因为会有越来越多的家庭早已拥有大屏幕电视。因此这场争夺战变得更为有趣,因为谁先抢占市场,谁就有可能占领领跑优势,至少在初期是这样。

一句话:台湾友达在这场争夺最先在中国开设LCD面板厂的竞争中暂时领先于韩国竞争对手,不过当这些工厂的产品全面出货时,可能会面临着严重的供应过剩局面。

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Cars: Less Restrictions and an Interesting Second-Hand Concept 汽车业:缓慢发展或成常态

There are a couple of interesting items in the media these last few days regarding cars, as automakers look desperately for any good news to jump-start sales that have slowed dramatically as Beijing looks to cool the economy and also ease traffic congestion. In the end, most of the hopes are destined for disappointment, as clearly economic cooling and making big city roads passable are clearly more important for China’s long-term welfare and thus will receive priority. But let’s get to the news. Perhaps most important were media reports late last week saying Beijing, under pressure from automakers alarmed by slowing sales, was considering putting the brakes on a national program to ease congestion by limiting the number of new license plates issued in major cities. (English article) This would follow the introduction of such a system earlier this year in Beijing, which presumably will be copied by other big cities in the near future. Anyone who lives in China knows that traffic in its major cities is near gridlock, thanks in large part to China’s economic incentives that encouraged huge numbers of consumers to buy cars during the global economic crisis. Pressure from automakers may be big, but I’m personally convinced that China has made up its mind on this issue and will push forward with measures to ease congestion on a national basis. In a second interesting tidbit, Volkswagen, in a bid to ease its dependence on new car sales, has just launched a used car-selling business here in China, called Das WeltAuto. (English article) While this concept sounds quite interesting and similar ventures have done quite well in mature markets like the US, I’m convinced it’s destined to stall out quickly in China. The reason is simple:  Chinese love new things, and second-hand anything is always an option of last resort.

Bottom line: China’s auto industry is set for a long-term period of slow growth and perhaps even some shrinkage, as Beijing focuses on easing congestion and pollution in its major cities.

过去几天中,媒体报导了几则关於汽车业的趣事儿。汽车制造商们正急切找寻任何可以推动销售的好消息,因中国政府的经济降温举措和缓解交通拥堵的政策令汽车销售大幅下滑。但汽车制造商的多数希望注定会落空,因为很明显,为经济降温和让大城市交通通畅对中国的长期利益更为重要。让我们先看两则新闻。可能最重要的就是媒体上周报导的,受业绩下滑的汽车制造商的压力,中国政府正考虑放宽在全国主要城市限购汽车的政策。今年早些时候,北京开始实施这一政策,想必其他大城市也会在不久的将来如法炮制。生活在中国的人都知道,中国大城市的道路交通经常陷於瘫痪,这在很大程度上要归咎於中国在全球经济危机期间实施的鼓励购车政策。尽管来自汽车制造商的压力可能很大,但我个人认为,中国政府在舒缓道路拥堵的问题上已下定决心,将会在全国范围内继续推行缓解交通压力的举措。第二则趣闻是,为缓解自己对新车销售的依赖,大众汽车刚刚在中国推出了名为Das WeltAuto的二手车销售业务。尽管这个概念听起来很有趣,且类似行动在美国等成熟市场进行得相当顺利,但我相信,这个计划注定会在中国迅速流产。理由很简单:中国人喜欢新东西,买二手货总是下下策。

一句话:因中国政府聚焦于缓解大城市的交通拥堵和环境污染问题,中国的汽车业注定会经历长期的缓慢发展,甚至会出现某些倒退。

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