Search Results for: ant

I don’t know if this is really major news, but I just couldn’t resist writing on this relatively quiet Friday about Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) latest plans to get into the love business by launching a wedding channel with Xoxo Group (NYSE: XOXO) and Ijie. (company announcement) The weddings industry is huge throughout the world, and China — where most urban families only have one child to give away under the nation’s one-child policy — is perhaps even more exuberant about the business. Having attended several of these affairs, I’ve seen how big they  are, involving lengthy photo shoots, multiple gowns and attire for a single wedding, and huge lavish banquets often involving hundreds of people. People say a Chinese woman won’t marry a man unless he owns a car and an apartment, but then they never add that when she finally does agree to tie the knot she also expects a huge, lavish wedding ceremony. It’s hard to say if this new Sina wedding channel will ever be strong enough to stand on its own and become an independent, major business like Sina’s popular Weibo microblogging site. But perhaps Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE), one of China’s top dating sites, could give some clues about the potential of the love business in China. Since limping out of the gate in their trading debut in May with a 4 percent decline (previous post), Jiayuan shares have come bouncing back and are now 13 percent above their IPO price. Similar good things could be waiting for Sina with this latest venture, considering the huge potential of the business in China and Sina’s strong record at executing well in its new business initiatives.

Bottom line: Sina’s new foray into the weddings business is likely to yield positive results, and could even become a new cash cow boosted by China’s growing hunger for lavish weddings.

我不知道这是否算得上是真正的要闻，但我就是忍不住在这个相对平静的周五就新浪<SINA.O>有意携手美国最大婚尚网站XO(NYSE: XOXO)和爱结网推出婚嫁频道的计划发表点儿看法。全世界的婚嫁产业都很庞大，而对於多数城市家庭只有一个孩子的中国而言，这一产业或许更为兴旺。我在中国参加过若干场婚礼，见识过其场面的巨大：长时间的拍照、频繁更换若干套礼服的婚礼仪式，动辄便有数百人参加的豪华宴会。中国人常说，女人不能嫁给一个没车没房的男人，但他们忘了说，当这个女人最终同意结婚时，她还期待举办一场隆重、豪华的婚礼仪式。很难说新浪婚嫁频道能否强大到站稳脚跟，变成一个像新浪微博一样的独立重要业务，但中国最大的婚恋网站–世纪佳缘<DATE.O>或许能就中国婚嫁行业的潜力给出些线索。自从5月赴美上市首日下挫4%以来，世纪佳缘的股价已有所反弹，目前比其IPO价格上涨13%。有鉴於中国婚嫁产业的巨大潜力和新浪新业务拓展的良好执行纪录，新浪婚嫁频道或许也会有类似的好事。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

I reported three months ago that leading Chinese coal producer Shenhua (HKEx: 1088; Shanghai: 601088) looked set for some global M&A after raising more than $20 billion (previous post), and am pleased to say that I really like its first major deal on the global stage in Mongolia. (English article) While the deal, involving a project called Tavan Tolgoi, isn’t really M&A, since Shenhua will develop it along with consortia from America and Russia, it looks like a very solid first move for Shenhua as it ventures outside its home China market. Perhaps most importantly, this new project lies in a country right next to China, meaning Shenhua should easily be able to develop the rail and other infrastructure needed to transport the coal back home for use in China’s fast-growing, energy-hungry economy. The coal involved is also of high grade, meaning it should see strong demand from energy makers keen to play their part in China’s ongoing clean-up of its polluted environment. And lastly, Mongolia itself is a country where Shenhua should face little political resistance, unlike similar projects in Western countries like Australia, the US and Canada, where  Chinese resource firms after often greeted with opposition from nationalistic interests. The budget for this one also looks appropriate, with analysts estimating Shenhua will have to invest about $7 billion in the project’s first phase — easily affordable for a company that just raised $20 billion and could easily raise more. After announcing preliminary results of tenders for the project earlier this week, Mongolia, after South Korea and Japan raised objections, has said the results are not yet final. (English article) But considering the politics involved, namely that Mongolia wants to build strong relations with its two neighbors and the US, I would be surprised if there are any major changes between the preliminary announcement and the final deal.

Bottom line: Shenhua’s winning of a major project in Mongolia is a good first step abroad, providing a rich coal area in a nearby country that wants to develop better relations with China.

三个月前我曾在一篇博客中提到中国神华集团<1088.HK><601088.SS>进行价值或高达1,600亿元人民币的配股再融资後，很可能会展开海外并购（前博文）。现在我很高兴地说，我非常喜欢神华在国际舞台上的首个重大并购。虽然此次交易严格来说并不算并购，因为神华是与来自美国、俄罗斯的财团共同开发蒙古Tavan Tolgoi项目，但看来这是神华走出国门的坚实第一步。也许更重要的是，新项目所在国为中国近邻，神华应该可以很容易建设把煤炭输往中国所需的基础设施。而且项目涉及的煤炭等级较高，能源厂商的需求应该非常旺盛，以满足中国环保要求。最後，神华在蒙古应该不会面临什麽政治阻力，不像在澳大利亚、美国与加拿大等西方国家，中国资源企业往往因为民族主义利益的因素遭遇反对。该项目所涉资金看来也比较合适，分析人士预计神华对项目第一阶段大约将投资70亿美元。对於一家刚刚融得200亿美元资金的企业而言，这完全不是问题。本周稍早项目竞标的初步结果宣布後，日本和韩国方面提出异议，蒙古则表示这还不是最终决定。但是考虑到政治因素，即蒙古希望与两大邻国及美国建立强有力的关系，我认为初步结果与最终决定不会有大的出入。

一句话：神华赢得蒙古重大项目是其走上国际舞台的良好起步，因Tavan Tolgoi拥有丰富煤炭资源，而项目所在国蒙古希望与中国建立更紧密关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Yanzhou’s War Chest Gets Fatter on New M&A Model 兖州煤业将为中国同行树立榜样

◙ Yanzhou Joins China Outbound Coal Train 兖州煤业加入中国海外煤炭并购大军

◙ Shenhua Rights Issue Smells of Overseas M&A 神华能源可能进行海外并购

After successfully reinventing itself as an online game company a few years back, NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) appears to be looking to return to its roots as one of China’s earliest Internet portals by spinning off its portal business into a separately listed company, domestic media are reporting. (English article; Chinese article) This looks like a brilliant idea to me, allowing NetEase to breathe new life into its Web portal, which is still relatively respected but has become somewhat neglected over the last few years as the company focused on its game business. Rival Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has successfully used this strategy of starting new businesses and then spinning them off to develop successful ventures in the real estate services and, most recently, the microblogging spaces with its wildly popular Weibo service. Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) has also used a similar strategy, spinning off its online game business into a separate company and preparing to do the same thing for its online literature unit. (previous post) This kind of a strategy makes sense in general, as putting different businesses into separate units forces them to think independently about things like costs, revenue and profits and losses rather than depending on generosity from their parent’s other businesses to survive. Of course, the strategy doesn’t always work and NetEase may find it’s simply too late to rebuild its portal business after years of neglect that have seen Sina, and to a lesser extent Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), come to dominate the market. But the market could certainly support one or two more major players, and NetEase’s faded portal still enjoys enough name recognition that it could again become a major player if forced to become an independent company with responsibility for its own profits and losses.

Bottom line: NetEase’s potential spin off of its portal business into a separately listed company looks a smart plan to revive this once-thriving but now faded business.

据中国国内媒体报导，几年前成功变身为一家网游公司後，目前网易<NTES.O>似乎希望回归本行，重塑其作为中国门户网站先驱的角色，方式就是剥离其门户网站业务，让它成为一家独立的上市企业。我觉得这个主意很好，可以让网易门户网站重获生机。网易门户虽然还有相当的地位，但过去几年公司把重点放在游戏产业，对门户业务有一定忽略。竞争对手新浪<SINA.O>就成功利用类似策略，把开辟的新业务剥离出去，如房地产服务及微博业务。盛大<SNDA.O>也采用了类似策略，将其网络游戏业务剥离出来，形成一家独立的企业，而且目前正准备以同样方式处理其在线文学业务。此类策略整体上是可行的，因将不同的业务分拆成不同的部门，可以迫使它们独立思考成本、营收、利润等问题，而无法依赖母公司其他业务的帮助来生存。当然，这种策略并非一直都奏效，而且网易或许会发现，经过几年来的忽略，再建门户为时已晚，因新浪与搜狐<SOHU.O>已在很大程度上主宰了门户市场。但这个行业再多出一两家主要竞争者未尝不可，而且网易门户仍有足够知名度，也许它在被迫独立出来自负盈亏後仍可呼风唤雨。

一句话：网易如将其门户业务剥离出去，让其成为一家单独的上市公司，以重振昔日门户威风，或不失为明智之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

◙ Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

◙ Sohu: New Media Fox or Just Another Game Player? 搜狐：新媒体巨头还是一个网游公司？

After reports emerged last week on the sudden turmoil at SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), China top microchip maker, it now appears the company is in the midst of a power struggle at the top that could wreak havoc on both its short- and longer-term performance. Markets were caught by surprise when signs of the turmoil first emerged with the unexpected removal of CEO David Wang from the company’s board at its annual general meeting, which came just days after its chairman died from cancer. (previous post) Now my sources are telling me that the removal of Wang, a Taiwanese-born US citizen, from the board is part of a broader campaign to purge the company’s top management of Taiwanese and replace them with mainlanders. Those who have followed SMIC for a while will know that this company’s history has been very closely tied to Taiwan, which pioneered the contract chip manufacturing concept. Its original founder, Richard Chang, was a Taiwanese, as were most of his top managers before their removal less than two years ago with Wang’s arrival. Chinese media are reporting that SMIC’s largest shareholder, state-owned telecoms company Datang, is apparently no longer supporting Wang and wants to see him replaced by one of the company’s other mainland-born top executives. (Chinese article) The only problem is, former Chairman Jiang Shangzhou was a strong supporter of Wang and recently signed him to a new multi-year contract just before his death last week, my source says. Wang has done a decent job of turning around this company, restoring it to profits in the last few quarters after four straight years of losses. His signing of a new contract so recently would indicate he clearly had no intention of leaving. But if Datang and the emerging mainland clique make his life difficult, I could easily see him accepting a buy-out in the next few months. Whatever happens, all of this will be bad for SMIC’s performance in the short-term, and a long-term introduction of new mainland management with little or no experience running a major complex company like SMIC doesn’t look good for the long term either.

Bottom line: The ongoing power struggle in the top ranks of SMIC will create chaos for the company in the sort term, and could mark the start of a longer term decline.

上周有报导称，中芯国际<0981. HK><SMI.N>突然出现高层动荡，该公司目前看起来是陷入权力争夺战，这可能将影响其短期及长期表现。中芯国际董事长江上舟因癌症去世後，该公司召开年度股东大会，首席执行官王宁国意外落选董事会，中芯国际高层动荡初露端倪，这颇令市场感到意外。我的消息人士告诉我，台湾出生的美籍华人王宁国未能进入董事会，是中芯国际清理台湾高管，让大陆人取而代之的举措之一。一直关注中芯国际的人应当知道，公司与台湾方面渊源颇深，台湾率先创造出合同芯片制造理念。中芯国际创始人张汝京（Richard Chang）是台湾人，他的管理团队中多数也是台湾人，他在两年前黯然离开，王宁国正是在那时接手中芯国际。中国大陆媒体报导称，中芯国际最大股东——大唐电信显然不再支持王宁国，而力推另一名大陆出生的高管取而代之。我的消息人士透露，唯一的问题是，江上舟一直力挺王宁国，上周去世前刚与其签订了一份多年合约。中芯国际连续四年出现亏损後，王宁国帮助公司扭亏为盈。王宁国刚签订了新合同表明他无意离职。但如果大唐和大陆同僚让其处境艰难，我敢说，他几个月後将接受合同买断。无论哪种情况，这都对中芯国际短期表现不利，如果由经验不足或毫无管理经验的大陆高管接掌像中芯国际这样大公司，也并不利於公司长期发展。

一句话：中芯国际管理层权力之争将让该公司短期陷入混乱，可能标志着该公司长期下滑的开始。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ SMIC Rumbles with Talk of Leadership Change 媒体风传中芯国际领导层变动

◙ Intel’s Move Nods to China Gadget Clout, Smells Slightly of Desperation 英特尔人事调动突显中国市场影响力

◙ SMIC: Forging a Better Future?

China and US are finally taking some concrete steps to address the ongoing confidence crisis in US-listed Chinese stocks, amid the latest fall-out at Longtop (NYSE: LFT), the firm whose ongoing accounting scandal in many ways precipitated the crisis. Foreign media are reporting that officials from the US and Chinese securities regulators will meet in China next week to discuss taking the unprecedented step of giving the US Securities and Exchange Commission authority to launch investigations of companies whose main listing is in the United States, even if their primary operations are physically based in China. (English article) This kind of cooperation is sorely needed, as right now the SEC has very little authority to investigate these companies, including many very small ones with dubious finances that got their US listings through “back door” takeovers of existing shell companies. Knowing the US has greater authority to come into their China offices and check their books, and potentially work with Chinese officials to obtain search warrants, will make many of these companies think twice about pursuing a US listing if their finances aren’t in conformance with US standards. Meantime, the carnage continues at Longtop, whose CFO and auditor have already resigned in the scandal involving financial irregularities at the company. In the latest development, 3 of Longtop’s independent directors and members of its auditing committee have resigned, apparently even after the company asked them to stay. (company announcement) It’s not difficult to see why these 3 resigned, as this kind of independent director is exactly the type of person who should have spotted the irregularities much earlier and pointed them out to the company’s management and board. Still, their departure won’t do anything to help restore confidence in this badly troubled company anytime soon.

Bottom line: A meeting between US and Chinese securities officials could mark the first step in an unprecedented cross-border alliance needed to restore confidence in US-listed Chinese firms.

中美两国最终就解决在美上市的中国企业出现的信任危机开始采取某些实质性措施。最新爆出财务丑闻的东南融通金融科技<LFT.N>在很多方面加速了这一危机。外国媒体报导称，中美证券监管部门的官员下周将在中国会晤，就美国证券交易委员会(SEC)有权调查在美上市的中国企业(即便该公司的主要运营实际在中国)这一前所未有的措施进行讨论。类似的合作十分必要，因美国证交会基本无权调查这些企业，包括很多财务状况可疑、通过收购现存空壳企业等“走後门”方式在美上市的小企业。如果知道美国有更大权限调查这些中国企业、核查其财务状况，并可能与中国官员合作获得搜查许可，可能很多财务状况不达美国标准的企业便会在寻求在美上市时三思而行。同时，对东南融通金融科技的调查还在继续，该公司的首席财务官和审计师已经在这场财务违规丑闻中辞职。最新事态是，该公司的三名独立董事兼审计委员会成员已经请辞，即使公司再三挽留。不难看出，为什麽这三人会辞职，因作为独立董事本该很早就发现公司的违规行为，并报告给公司的管理层和董事会。当然，他们的离职并不会有助於这家陷入困境的企业尽早恢复信誉。

一句话：中美证券监管官员的会晤可能标志着中美就解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机问题上，迈出了前所未有的跨境合作第一步。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Spreadtrum On Cusp of Putting Out Short-Seller Fire 展讯力抗卖空方

◙ NY Sell-Off Hits Spreadtrum, Dangdang, Xunlei 纽约股市大跌 展讯、当当网和迅雷受创

◙ Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

Just three years after seeing his company, AIG (NYSE: AIG), driven to the brink of insolvency at the height of the global financial crisis, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg is returning to China to take another stab at his favorite market with a new insurance tie-up. Details are still thin pending an official ceremony set for next Monday, but a pre-announcement for the event says Greenberg’s Starr International, a private insurance holding company, will invest in another private Chinese insurer, Dazhong Insurance. (company announcement) This event has Shanghai written all over it, as Shanghai city officials are set to attend the event in their city, along with officials from China’s insurance regulator. Many followers of AIG, recipient of the largest-ever bailout by the US government during the financial crisis, will recall that Greenberg loved to tell the world how AIG was founded in Shanghai, and he was never shy about talking up the big potential of the China market. Of course, all that was put on hold when Greenberg was forced out of AIG during the crisis, and AIG’s Asia empire was later sold off in pieces to help pay back the US government. Given Greenberg’s strong connections in China and the backing for his new endeavor by the Shanghai government, I’d look for big things from Dazhong in the future, including a probable public listing in the next couple of years. China is sorely in need of another strong major player in its insurance sector, as the market is now dominated by China Life (HKEx: 2628; Shanghai: 601628) and Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), and despite some hype at their formation, a number of foreign-invested insurance joint ventures haven’t made any significant progress. Look for big talk and lots of smiles at the ceremony next week, and for big things from Dazhong in the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: Hank Greenberg’s return to China through an investment in Dazhong Insurance marks an important tie-up that could see the emergence of a major new player.

美国国际集团(AIG)<AIG.N>前执行长格林伯格(Maurice “Hank” Greenberg)曾目睹其公司在全球金融危机最严重之时濒临破产，仅仅三年後，格林伯格便带着新的保险合作项目重返他情有独钟的中国市场。诸多合作细节尚不得而知，一切均要等到下周一才正式揭晓，但活动公告称，格林伯格的私人保险控股公司——胜达国际集团(Starr International)将投资中国另一家私人保险公司——大众保险。此事将有上海市政府的参与，因上海市官员连同中国保险监管部门的官员将共同出席合作仪式。很多关注AIG的人能回忆起，格林伯格很喜欢告诉世界AIG是如何从上海发迹，他也从不羞于谈及中国市场的巨大潜力。当然，当他在危机期间被迫退出AIG时，他在中国的计划都被搁置了，且为偿还美国政府的救助款，AIG的亚洲帝国随後也被变卖得四分五裂。考虑到格林伯格在中国强有力的人脉以及上海市政府对其新投资的支持，我相信大众保险未来会有大行动，包括未来几年可能会上市。中国的保险业市场目前由中国人寿<601628.SS> <2628.HK>和中国平安<601318.SS> <2318.HK>两家保险公司主导，因此非常需要出现另一个强有力的竞争者，尽管很多外国投资的保险合资企业在其创建之时炒作得天花乱坠，但迄今未取得明显进展。相信下周的合作仪式上不乏重要会谈和满脸洋溢的笑容，相信大众保险未来1-2年会有大行动。

一句话：格林伯格通过投资大众保险回归中国是一次重要合作的标志，这次合作可能会给中国市场带来一个重量级竞争者的崛起。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

◙ Ping An, Beggars Cup in Hand, Looks Worrisome

◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资

Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is once again showing the world its ineptitude outside its core online search business, reporting massive losses on overseas initiatives and announcing a new tie-up with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) that also looks like little more than talk. Chinese media, citing one of Baidu’s latest SEC filings, are reporting the Chinese search leader has lost a hefty 700 million yuan, or more than $100 million, on its overseas initiatives in the last three years, mostly from its Japan search initiative that isn’t going anywhere fast. (Chinese article) Also disconcerting is the fact that the losses have grown over each of the last 3 years, from about 200 milliion yuan in 2008 to 260 million yuan last year. I don’t know enough about its Japan operations to comment too knowledgeably, but considering Baidu’s previous record of failure in almost everything it does outside its domestic search business, I wouldn’t be surprised to see its Japan search initiative shuttered in the next 1-2 years. While the Japan business struggles, Baidu’s newly announced tie-up with Microsoft looks silly at best, and in reality seems to smell of desperation by both sides. That tie-up will see Microsoft supplying English-language search services to Baidu through its struggling Bing search engine, launched with fanfare a couple of years ago as a rival to Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) but which has made little impact on the market since then. (English article) To state the obvious, the English language search market in China is tiny and insignificant, and the small number of people who actually conduct English-language searches there are much more likely to go to Google or Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) than to Baidu, which has no name in that space. These kind of desperate initiatives are just the latest examples of Baidu’s inability to diversify beyond its Chinese search business, which will leave it highly vulnerable when the market starts to slow or if another credible competitor comes along.

Bottom line: Baidu’s struggling Japan business and its new Microsoft tie-up are the latest examples of its inability to execute significant initiatives outside its core search business.

百度财报称海外项目拓展亏损巨大，近期则宣布与微软<MSFT.O>进行一项看似意义寥寥的合作，再次证明其开拓在线搜索以外业务方面的笨拙。中国媒体援引百度近期向美国证交会（SEC）提交的文件称，百度过去三年在海外市场累计亏损近7亿元人民币，主要原因是其日文搜索引擎发展较缓。令人担忧的事实还包括，在过去三年，百度海外亏损额每年呈递增趋势，从2008年亏损约2亿元到去年亏损2.6亿元。我对百度日本运营不够了解，因此不敢妄加评论，但鉴於百度除国内搜索外的其他业务几乎全部失败的纪录，如果该公司在未来一两年关闭日文搜索业务，我不会感到惊讶。而百度日前宣布与微软合作，此举看似十分愚蠢，实际上可嗅出两家公司的绝望。微软将利用其必应(Bing)搜索引擎，向百度提供英文搜索服务。微软几年前大张旗鼓推出必应，以此与谷歌<GOOG. O>进行竞争，但在市场中并未掀起什麽波澜。显而易见的是，中国的英文搜索市场规模小且无关紧要，况且在中国需要进行英文搜索的那一小部分人，更可能使用谷歌或雅虎<YHOO.O>，而不是百度。这种绝望性质的项目只是百度无法开拓国内搜索以外业务的最新例证，如果中国国内搜索市场开始放缓或百度在其中遭遇强劲对手，百度的业绩则极易受到冲击。

一句话：百度日本运营陷入困境及其与微软合作的最新举措，这都是百度开拓国内搜索以外业务的无力表现的最新例证。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s Mobile Plan: Do We Need Another OS? 百度手机操作系统计划有没有市场？

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

◙ Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

I haven’t written for a while about Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which seems to have rediscovered its appetite for questionable M&A in difficult Western markets with its just-completed joint venture that will effectively see it take over NEC’s (Tokyo: 6701) troubled PC business. (English article) First, let’s move past the slick announcement and say what this deal really is. The two sides are calling the new alliance, which saw Lenovo give NEC $175 million in shares in exchange for 51 percent of a joint venture containing NEC’s PC assets, a partnership. But in reality, it’s the first step in a process that both sides hope will eventually see Lenovo take over NEC’s PC business, which is quickly becoming irrelevant everywhere in the world except for its highly protected home market in Japan. The big problem behind this deal is that Japanese customers, both corporate and consumers, aren’t stupid: they will quickly realize that NEC — which now holds a quarter of the Japanese PC market — is no longer a Japanese brand after this tie-up and will abandon it in droves, much the way US and other global consumers abandoned IBM-brand PCs after IBM (NYSE: IBM) sold its PC business to Lenovo in 2005. I expect to see similar results with Lenovo’s other recently acquired Western brand, Germany’s Medion (Frankfurt: MDN). (previous post) Luckily for Lenovo, it’s only investment in this NEC deal is the $175 million it put into the joint venture, and even that was only in shares. Lenovo is probably hoping that when the dust settles, there will still be enough business left from the legacy NEC operations to justify this move. But realistically speaking I see a 50 percent chance or less for this tie-up to succeed, and doubt Lenovo’s share of the Japan PC market will top even 15 percent 5 years from now.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new joint venture with NEC is likely to fail, with NEC-brand PCs set to rapidly lose share in the Japanese PC market in the next 5 years.

我很长时间没有写关於联想<0992.HK>的文章了。联想收购NEC的PC业务，成立合资公司後，好像又重新对并购西方国家企业感兴趣了。首先，让我们看看，这桩并购到底是什麽实质内容。首先，联想发行新股支付NEC 1.75亿美元，换取与NEC旗下PC部门组成合资企业中51%的股权。但事实上，这仅仅是联想在收购NEC的PC业务上迈出的第一步。除了在受到保护的本土市场，NEC的PC业务在其他市场都已经沦落到无足轻重的地步。这桩交易背後的一个大问题是，日本消费者，无论是公司还是个人，都不蠢：他们将很快认识到，占据日本PC市场四分之一的NEC电脑产品，在这一交易之後不再是日本品牌了，他们会逐渐放弃这个品牌，就像美国和其他国家消费者在2005年联想收购IBM的PC业务後放弃IBM品牌一样。我觉得联想收购的其他西方企业品牌，如德国Medion公司<MDNG.DE>，也会面临类似下场。但对於联想来说，幸运的是其对NEC的投资只是其对合资公司投入的1.75亿美元。联想可能希望，尘埃落定後，NEC品牌还会有足够多的生意。但老实说，我觉得这个结盟成功的机率至多不过50%，对五年後联想在日本PC市场能占到15%份额也表示怀疑。

一句话：联想与NEC的合资公司可能失败，未来五年，NEC品牌的PC可能很快在日本失去市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

◙ Lenovo’s Game Console — Yet Another Plan 联想：新推游戏机，这次能行吗？

◙ HP Looking For China Formula 惠普寻找中国方程式的答案

While the rest of the world fixates on the latest twists and turns in the Guo Meimei-Red Cross scandal, I thought I’d turn my attention to a couple of cross-border M&A deals in the low-profile but lucrative food sector, one involving global giant Nestle (Zurich: NESN) and the other China’s Bright Food. The Nestle deal has the Swiss giant in talks to purchase Hsu Fu Chi (Singapore: HSFU), a Singapore-listed Chinese candy maker with a market capitalization of $2.6 billion. (English article) The other deal has Bright, which has been on the acquisition trail for a while (previous post) considering an offer for Australia’s Treasury Wine (Sydney: TWE). From a general perspective, I like cross-border food deals as they’re usually straightforward because they involve simple products most often confined to a single market. In the case of multinationals like Nestle buying into China, such deals are also probably welcome by the Chinese government, since having a name like Nestle behind a product offers guarantees of quality control in a market plagued by a continuous stream of scandals over tainted food. For Chinese companies like Bright looking to expand globally, such deals are relatively easy to execute and operate as they usually involve healthy companies and disruption to operations are minimal. My one concern in Bright’s case is that, in its clear enthusiasm to buy an overseas company after several failed efforts, it could end up overpaying when it finally completes a purchase and then, in its eagerness to show investors it made the right decision, implement management and other changes that create unexpected problems. But at least for now, both of these deals, if they happen, look like positive steps for all companies involved, and we could see other multinationals like Kraft (NYSE: KFT) follow on the inbound M&A trail, and Chinese names like Tsingtao Beer (Shanghai: 600600) follow on the outbound trail in the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: Potential cross-border M&A by Nestle and Bright Food look like smart deals in the straightforward consumer foods sector, augering more such deals in the next 1-2 years.

当大家都在关注郭美美和红十字会丑闻时，我更想关注低调但利润丰厚的食品行业的几宗跨国并购案，其中一宗与全球食品巨头雀巢<NESN.VX>有关，另一宗与中国的光明食品集团有关。雀巢正洽购新加坡上市的中国糖果制造商徐福记<HSFU.SI>，後者市值为26亿美元。光明考虑收购澳大利亚葡萄酒公司Treasury Wine<TWE.AX>。整体而言，我看好跨国食品公司并购，由於产品线简单，市场单一，因此并购往往直截了当。在食品跨国并购案中，例如雀巢入境收购中国食品商，此类交易也可能受到中国政府欢迎，因为拥有“雀巢”品牌名称，相当於提供了质量管理保证，而中国食品市场安全问题频发。而对於希望拓展海外市场的光明等中国企业，此类交易通常有品牌形象良好的企业参与，因此并购相对容易进行和操作，运营中断的可能也较小。我对光明并购澳洲葡萄酒商的担忧是，光明此前几宗海外并购失败後，其明显的并购热情可能导致其出价过高，随後，由於光明急切希望向投资者证明其决策正确，在进行管理和其它调整时或造成意想不到的问题。但至少目前看来，如果上述两宗并购得以实现，对所有相关公司都是积极举措，预计未来一两年，卡夫食品<KFT.N>等国际品牌将在中国展开并购，而青岛啤酒<600600.SS>等中国食品商也将出境并购。

一句话：雀巢和光明食品可能进行跨国并购，应该是消费者食品公司的明智之举，预计未来一两年将有更多类似并购交易。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Diageo’s China Baijiu Bid: Aiming for the Middle 帝亚吉欧瞄准中国中档白酒市场

◙ Bright Food Sets Table for More M&A Bids 光明食品：高举并购大旗

◙ Unilever Helps China See the Light Behind Free Markets 联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进

While drinking my morning coffee this Monday, I came across a China Daily report on the huge migration of young urban professionals to the suburbs of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai in search of affordable homes, and thought about who was likely to benefit from such a move. Based on my own childhood growing up the suburbs of Washington D.C., one of the clearest beneficiaries will be supermarket chains that serve as one-stop-shops for suburban folk who often have to travel big distances to do their buying. The phenomenon seen by the China Daily (English article) is everywhere you look in China’s major cities today, and I even visited one such emerging suburban “mini-city’ over the weekend while visiting a friend outside Shanghai. Everything was still under construction, but you could clearly see the sprawling development taking shape. As China’s cities become more congested and housing there becomes less affordable, look for a growing number of cost-conscious young people to take up residence in these developments, which are also more child friendly. This should come as a huge opportunity for major supermarket operators like Lianhua (HKEx: 980), a unit of Shanghai Bailain (Shanghai: 600631), which told the China Daily it is preparing to open 800 suburban stores over the near term to cater to the trend. The flight to the suburbs should also help more mid-tier names like Sun Art, which is preparing a $1 billion listing in Hong Kong (English article), as well as global names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Carrefour (Paris: CA), which specialize in sprawling suburban stores. Others, including restaurant chains McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Subway, are also experimenting with drive through restaurants that cater to more car-oriented suburban dwellers. (previous post) Of course, the big risk in all this is that a bursting real estate bubble could significantly slow the development of new properties, both in the cities and suburbs. But even if that happens, expensive downtown properties — a speculator favorite that often never even play host to real tenants — are likely to suffer the most, with the move by young professionals to the suburbs likely to emerge as a more enduring trend.

Bottom line: The move by young Chinese professionals to the suburbs in search of affordable homes will fuel a boom for new supermarket development over the next decade.

周一早晨，我在喝咖啡时看到《中国日报》有篇关於许多年轻人在北京和上海等大城市郊区买房的报导，我在思考谁可能从中获益。根据我童年在华盛顿郊区长大的经验，最明显的受益方之一将是提供“一站式”服务的超市连锁店，因为郊区居民往往要走很远才能购物。《中国日报》谈到的这个现象如今在中国各大城市随处可见，我甚至在周末拜访上海郊区的朋友时，亲眼参观了一座郊区“迷你城市”。一切都还在建设中，但明显可以看到规模庞大的开发进程。随着中国城市变得更加拥挤，市区住房价格越发难以承受，越来越多的年轻人为节省成本而搬到郊区居住，而郊区也对儿童更为友好。对於上海百联集团<600631.SS>旗下的联华超市<0980.HK>等大型超市运营商而言，这一进程中蕴藏巨大商机。联华超市对《中国日报》表示，公司计划近期在城市郊区开设800家门店，以满足这一需求趋势。高鑫零售（Sun Art）等中型超市、沃尔玛<WMT.N>和家乐福<CARR.PA>等全球连锁品牌也将从中获益。麦当劳<MCD.N>和赛百味等快餐店也在试行汽车餐厅，以吸引更多驾车的郊区居民。当然，此举最大风险是房地产泡沫破灭可能促使市内和郊区的新楼盘建设明显放缓。但即使发生这种情况，昂贵的市区楼盘受到的冲击将更大，而年轻人搬到郊区居住的趋势可能有增无减。

一句话：中国职场年轻人为寻找负担得起的住房，纷纷搬到郊区居住，这将在未来十年推动超市行业迅速发展。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ McDonald’s Revs Up for China Drive-Thru 麦当劳寄望“得来速”汽车餐厅拓宽中国市场

◙ Welcome to the China Dollhouse: Barbie Packs Up Shanghai Camper

China’s vibrant budget hotel sector, still suffering a bit from Expo hangover (previous post), has taken its latest move to ease the pain with the acquisition of a mid-sized player by 7 Days (NYSE: SVN), one of the industry’s leaders. (company announcement) In this case, 7 Days is buying Huatian Hotel Group (Shenzhen: 000428), a decidedly mid-tier player with 21 hotels in 12 mostly mid-sized cities, for $21 million. This deal looks like a perfect fit for a major player like 7 Days, complementing its own much larger stable of hotels more concentrated in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and its home base of Guangzhou. Indeed, it was the big-city concentration that led 7 Days and fellow operators like Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) to suffer a case of “Expo hangover”, as their business flattened after a huge bump during Shanghai’s World Expo last year. 7 Days’ deal comes just a month after a much bigger deal that saw Home Inns acquire the Motel 168 in a transaction that valued that company at about $500 million. (previous post) It also comes amid another consolidation-type play by travel Website Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP), which is linking up independent hotel operators into a national alliance under the Starway brand. (previous post) All this activity looks very healthy for a relatively fragmented industry with huge growth potential as millions of Chinese look for affordable vacations to take advantage of their rising wealth. As industry leaders Home Inns, 7 Days and China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT) drive this growing consolidation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the big global hotel brands like Marriott (NYSE: MAR) or Accor (Paris: AC) step in and either try to buy up one of these firms or form some other kind of tie-up.

Bottom line: 7 Days’ purchase of a regional hotel operator marks the latest consolidation in a vibrant Chinese budget hotel sector still recovering from Expo hangover.

在中国经济型酒店依然承受着上海世博会结束带来的余痛之际，7天连锁酒店<SVN.N>以2,100万美元收购了一家中等规模的同业者——湖南华天之星酒店管理有限公司，给整个行业带来了好消息。对於7天连锁酒店这样的大型业者来说，此举堪称完美搭配，因为7天连锁酒店主要集中於北京、上海、广州等大城市，而其所收购的公司主打二、三线城市市场。正是那种“大城市策略”，让7天连锁酒店和如家<HMIN.O>等在上海世博会期间迎来业务高峰的酒店企业，经历了世博会之後的下滑阵痛。一个月前，如家以5亿美元收购了莫泰168酒店59%的股权。与此同时，旅游网站携程<CTRP.O>还在“星程”品牌下整合了全国各地一些独立运作的酒店。所有这一切，对於一个散兵游勇众多但增长潜力巨大的行业来说，确实是个好现象。在如家、7天和汉庭<HTHT.O>引领此次行业整合风潮之际，我觉得万豪国际<MAR.N>、雅高<ACCP.PA>等国际大型酒店集团可能也会有所行动——要麽收购其中一家企业，要麽也组成类似的同盟。

一句话：依然经历着上海世博会结束余痛的中国经济型酒店行业已进入整合期，7天连锁酒店的收购举动便是最新明证。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ctrip Tries Its Hand at Brand Management 携程尝试品牌管理

◙ Home Inns Finds Room at Motel168 After All 如家最终收购莫泰168

◙ Lenovo Lodges? Perhaps, Says Liu 联想进军酒店业？