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Number portability — the ability to change mobile carriers without changing your phone number — is slogging ahead in China at a snail’s pace, and I’ve no doubt that resistance from the carriers, most notably China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), is to blame. People often resist switching their mobile company, even when other carriers offer more attractive plans, because they don’t want to change their phone number and risk being unreachable by their old contacts. Number portability was designed to solve this problem, allowing someone to switch carriers without losing their old phone number. While most developed countries have had number portability for years, China, after years of talk, finally conducted a 6-month trial program in Tianjin and Hainan that just wrapped up in May. In what should come as no big surprise, only 50,000 people managed to change carriers while keeping their old phone numbers in that time, or just a tenth of people who actually applied to do so. (English article; Chinese article) As a result of this weak result, a spokesman from the telecoms regulator said plans to roll out number portability nationwide, originally set for the end of this year, will be delayed a year. I’ve no doubt that China Mobile, with 70 percent of China’s mobile market, was one of the biggest forces making life difficult for anyone to change numbers. Especially in the 3G era, when many would like to switch to superior service offered by rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China Mobile has everything to lose and little or nothing to gain by making number portability easier. Still, that’s no excuse for delaying, and the regulator should be more forceful in pushing China Mobile to cooperate with this initiative if it wants to usher in an era of more balanced competition for its telecoms sector.

Bottom line: Foot-dragging by China’s 3 mobile carriers is stalling China’s move to mobile number portability, aiding China Mobile as it fends off aggressive advances by its 2 rivals.

中国正在缓慢推进手机携号转网，即不换号实现手机运营商转换。我认为，该进展迟缓无疑应归咎於运营商的抵制，尤其是中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>。人们往往不愿更换手机运营商，即使其它运营商提供了更诱人的计划，原因是他们不想换号，不希望以前的联系人找不到他们。携号转网就能解决这个问题，用户可以不换号转网。大多数发达国家已推广该项服务多年，而中国在讨论了数年後，终於在天津和海南进行了为期六个月的试点项目，试验期刚於今年5月结束。并不令人感到意外的是，试验期只有5万人实现携号转网，仅为申请人数的十分之一。由於试行效果不佳，工信部发言人表示，将推迟一年向全国推广携号转网，而该计划原定於今年年底落实。我毫不怀疑，占中国手机市场七成份额的中国移动是最大的阻力之一。尤其是在3G领域，许多人肯定希望转用中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>的更优质服务，所以中国移动若支持携号转网将得不偿失。但这不是拖延的理由。工信部若希望引导国内电信商公平竞争，就应敦促中国移动配合携号转网计划。

一句话：中国三大移动运营商犹豫不决，阻碍中国实现携号转网计划。这种情况对中国移动有利，因为它不愿看到两大竞争对手从中获益。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙ China Mobile Finally Pushing on 3G 中国移动终於要大力推动3G业务

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Just a day after announcing an unusual plan to build wind power plants in the US (previous post), China is stepping up to bat for its embattled green energy equipment makers once more with an equally ambitious scheme to bankroll construction of solar power plants in Europe. (English article) Under this latest plan, three Chinese banks will pony up as much as $10 billion to help solar equipment and service providers China Technology Development Group (Nasdaq: CTDC) and Goldpoly New Energy (HKEx: 686) build solar plants in Europe. (company announcement) While this plan is being spearheaded by two companies with undoubtedly favorable financing from the Chinese banks, word in the market is that similar plans are in the works by other major Chinese solar equipment makers, which have seen their inventory rapidly grow amid one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns as urgency lessens to build new green energy plants in the West with the fading of the global economic crisis. As I said previously, these green energy plants are still a profitable endeavor in many Western markets due to favorable government-set prices for wind and solar energy designed to spur clean energy construction. But the rate of return doesn’t seem to have attracted much attention from Western investors, hence the need for the Chinese to come in and build and finance these overseas plants themselves. Look for more such announcements in the months ahead, providing a lift for China’s solar cell makers, but also a potential burden as they move into the less-familiar area of building and owning solar power generating stations.

Bottom line: Chinese solar cell makers are gearing up for a solar power station building spree with backing from Beijing, boosting their sales but also taking them into unfamiliar territory.

中国宣布将在美国建风电厂的消息一天之後，再度出手力挺国内绿色能源设备制造商，表示将为其在欧洲建设太阳能电厂提供融资。根据这项最新计划，中国三家银行将提供高达100亿美元的资金，支持太阳能设备及服务提供商中国科技发展集团和金保利新能源公司<0686.HK>在欧洲修建太阳能电站。这两家公司将率先获得国内银行优惠融资支持，但市场传言，中国其它大型太阳能设备制造商也在制定类似计划。该行业正处於史上最严重的低迷期之一，中国太阳能企业的库存已经快速增加，因随着全球经济危机减退，西方国家新建清洁能源电厂的紧迫感也有所消退。正如我之前所说，清洁能源电厂在许多西方国家仍有盈利空间，因为各国政府为推动清洁能源发展，对风能和太阳能设立了优惠价格。但其收益率对西方投资者来说并不太诱人，因此需要中国企业进入欧美市场，修建电厂并自行融资。未来数月，中国政府或将宣布更多类似计划，为国内太阳能电池企业提供机会，但机遇也可能成为负担，因为他们将前往人生地不熟的地方修建太阳能电站。

一句话：中国太阳能电池制造商正在北京支持下，加速对外扩张。虽然销售会受到提振，但厂家们也将进入一个陌生领地。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Tie-Up Pushes Wind Power in US 国电和富国银行的合作推动美国风电的发展

◙ Beijing Warms Up Solar Sector 中国政府向太阳能产业伸出援手

◙ China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

Cellphone and TV maker TCL (Shenzhen: 000001) is further solidifying its budding comeback, with the announcement of $300 million in new deals to sell its products in Italy. (English article) What’s most interesting to me in this latest announcement, which doesn’t provide much specifics, is that celllphones seem to be providing more and more of the company’s recent return from the dead. Some may recall that TCL, through its TCL Communication (HKEx: 2618) arm, burst onto the mobile phone scene about a decade ago by selling smart-looking, low cost phones to new China mobile customers. But it later fell onto hard times due to lack of new designs and a disastrous purchase of Alcatel’s handset business. Meantime, sister company TCL Multimedia (HKEx: 1070), TCL’s television unit, also went through some hard times after its similarly difficult purchase of Thomson Electronics’  TV arm in 2005. TCL’s TV and cellphone businesses have both come back in the last two years, though handsets are clearly growing much faster. TCL’s handset sales in the first five months of the year grew 39 percent, versus just 13 percent growth for its LCD television sales. (English article) The company seems to be taking a cue from provincial rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) in finding a niche for developing low-cost smartphones based on the Android operating system. The TV business also got a shot in the arm in April, when Samsung (Seoul: 005930) invested in TCL’s state-of-the-art LCD plant in Shenzhen. (previous post) With that tie-up set to help boost TV sales and momentum in the cellphone business, I’d look for TCL’s strong comeback to continue for at least the next one to two years.

Bottom line: TCL’s new $300 million worth of deals in Italy underscore its recent comeback, which should continue at least for the next 1-2 years.

中国手机和电视制造商TCL集团<000100.SZ>正进一步巩固其卷土重来之势，宣称与意大利客户签下总额达3亿美元的销售合约。在我看来，这则声明最有趣的地方在於，手机业务似乎越来越成为TCL起死回生的法宝。有人或许还能回想起来，TCL大约十年前试水手机领域，向中国刚刚兴起的移动客户提供外形漂亮但价格低廉的手机，但因缺乏新设计并错误地购买了阿尔卡特的手机业务，TCL陷入到困局中。与此同时，TCL旗下电视机生产企业——TCL 多媒体<1070.HK>在2005年收购法国汤姆逊电子的电视部门後也经历了一段困难时期。TCL的电视和手机业务在过去两年中均有所复苏，尽管手机业务的发展速度明显快很多。TCL今年前五个月的手机销售增长了39%，而其液晶电视机的销售只有13%的增长率。TCL在开发基於安卓操作系统的低成本智能手机时似乎从竞争对手中兴通讯<000063.SZ> <0763.HK>那里获得了灵感。TCL的电视业务4月份也获得了动力，因三星电子<005930.KS>向TCL位於深圳的液晶电视机厂投资。这笔投资势必有助於推动其电视机的销量和手机业务的发展。我预计TCL的强力反弹之势至少会在未来一到两年延续。

一句话：TCL在意大利签署的新协议再次印证了其近些日子的反弹之势，且这种趋势至少为延续到未来一到两年。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ TCL on the Comeback Trail With Samsung Tie-Up TCL与三星结盟 重振旗鼓

◙ China TV Makers Lack Right Stuff to Profit fom Sony Woes 索尼遭殃谁受益？

◙ ZTE: Ready for a Breather 中兴通讯：遇到了减速带

After a few months of silence from BYD (HKEx: 1211), the electric vehicle aspirant backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett has announced a new pilot program to test out its electric buses in the German city of Frankfurt. (company announcement) While any new orders for its electric vehicles outside China are certainly good news for BYD, a closer look at this latest deal is hardly anything to get excited about. The pilot program in Germany, already known for its willingness to try just about anything with the word “green” in it, involves a total of three electric buses and two charging stations, which no doubt BYD is supplying free of charge or at very very very reduced costs. The buses won’t even be riding around Frankfurt on regular routes, but will be mostly confined to use as airport shuttles. The highly limited scope of this arrangement shows just how tough a time BYD will face in getting its electric vehicles into Western markets. Instead, the company’s best shot really lies in its home market of Shenzhen, a major Chinese metropolis, where the local government has already shown itself willing to act as a major backer for BYD’s electric dreams by building out major charging and other infrastructure to showcase and promote this technology, if it’s even worth showcasing at all. My guess is that this Frankfurt program won’t go too far, due to charging infrastructure limitations and high maintenance costs. But if BYD provides enough incentives, perhaps this could be the beginning of a deeper relationship down the road, though don’t look for profits from this or any similar overseas tie-ups anytime soon.

Bottom line: BYD’s new EV bus pilot program in Germany is largely a PR ploy, unlikely to yield any major business for BYD anytime soon.

在经历了数月的沉默後，比亚迪<1211.HK>宣布了一项新的电动车试点项目，准备在德国法兰克福使用其生产的电动巴士。尽管任何来自中国本土以外的电动车新订单对比亚迪都肯定是好事，但若进一步观察这项最新协议，你会发现其实没什麽可高兴的。在德国的这个试点项目涉及三辆电动公车和两座充电车站，无疑，比亚迪将提供免费充电服务或以象征性收点儿钱，而众所周知德国很愿意测试任何与“绿色”有关的新技术。这几辆电动车基本不会沿常规路线环绕法兰克福，主要用作机场穿梭巴士。严格限定其使用范围也显示出，比亚迪在将其电动车打入西方市场的过程中将面临多大的困难。相反，比亚迪的优势还是在中国深圳，当地政府已有意支持比亚迪实现其电动车之梦，例如修建充电和其他基础设施，以展示和推广该技术。我个人认为，受累于充电设施有限和高昂的维护成本，这个法兰克福计划不会走太远。但如果比亚迪提供足够的刺激措施，可或许是该计划更为深入的开始，尽管比亚迪不要指望能很快从类似的海外合作中获利。

一句话：比亚迪在德国新的电动车试点项目在很大程度上是一个公关项目，不太可能会在短期内为比亚迪带来任何重大利润。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

◙ BYD Share Sale: A Steer in the Right Direction 比亚迪A股上市是好事

◙ BYD’s EV Strategy: Bury Them With Figures 比亚迪电动车战略：用数字狂轰滥炸

If a market doesn’t exist for your product, then go ahead and make one. That seems to be the hidden message in a new announcement from Guodian, one of China’s major power producers, which has signed an interesting agreement with Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), a leading US lender, to promote wind power development in the United States. (company announcement) Details in this announcement are thin, but the underlying message is clear: in the absence of local efforts to install more solar and wind power in North America and Europe, China is willing to step in and help to build new green energy plants in these markets to help and support its large stable of wind and solar equipment makers, who are now going through one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns. Of course, this kind of Beijing-backed effort to develop clean energy overseas is hardly selfless, and I have no doubt that the vast majority of orders for wind turbines and other equipment resulting from this Guodian-Wells Fargo tie-up will go to leading Chinese equipment makers like Xinjiiang Goldwind (HKEx: 2208) and Ming Yang Wind Power (NYSE: MY). You have to applaud the Chinese for their approach in this case, as attractive tariffs still exist in the West to make wind power a profitable endeavor. It’s just the degree of profitability that has prevented more building of wind and solar plants — something China will try to address by building the plants by itself using its power generating companies as its agents. If this tie-up works, look for more similar arrangements between Western banks and other organizations and Chinese power producers going forward, which will benefit both China’s wind and solar energy equipment makers.

Bottom line: The new tie-up between a major Chinese power producer and US lender Wells Fargo to build US wind power could be a template for China’s future promotion of green energy in the West

如果你的产品没有市场，那麽赶紧创造一个。这似乎是中国主要发电商——国电新声明中的潜藏含义。国电与美国富国银行(Wells Fargo)<WFC.N>签署了一份有趣的协议，旨在在美国推广风电开发。声明中的细节内容很少，但潜在信息却很明确：在北美和欧洲各国不愿安装更多太阳能和风力发电设备时，中国愿插手并帮助这些市场修建新的绿色能源发电厂，从而间接帮助并支持其风力和太阳能设备制造商度过该行业最严峻的衰退之一。当然，这种中国政府支持的开发海外清洁能源的努力绝非无私之举，无疑，国电和富国的合作会带来大量设备订单，其中绝大多数订单将落入新疆金风科技<2208. HK>、明阳风电<MY.N>等中国设备制造商手中。你不得不为中国人在此案中的手腕拍手称道，因西方国家依然存在很具诱惑力的优惠税率，使风电成为一个有利可图的行业。正是盈利程度才是阻碍修建更多风力和太阳能发电厂的原因。这也是中国试图解决的一个问题，中国采取的方式是让国内发电企业作为代理，自行修建发电厂。如果国电和富国的这种合作行之有效，那麽西方银行和其他机构与中国电力供应商之间的类似协议还会有更多，且中国的风力和太阳能设备生产商也会从中受益。

一句话：国电和富国在美国修建风电厂的新合作或许成为中国未来向西方推广绿色能源的一个模板。.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

◙ Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes 明阳挫折凸显行业之殇

◙ Longyuan Looks to Breeze Overseas 龙源电力寻找海外风能市场机遇

Anyone who doubts that China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) is rapidly posing a serious challenge to dominant mobile carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) should look no further than the latest reports of a newly announced tie-up between Unicom and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA). (English article; Chinese article) The tie-up with Sina, China’s most popular Web portal, and Sina’s hugely popular Weibo microblogging service, is a huge endorsement for China’s number-two telco in the mobile 3G Internet space, where Unicom is fast stealing market share from China Mobile. Anyone living in China will have no problem understanding why Unicom is rising so fast. Mobile phone users constantly complain about the slowness and unreliability of China Mobile’s wireless Internet service, which is hamstrung by its government-mandated use of a problem-plagued homegrown 3G technology. Unicom, by comparison, operates a 3G mobile Internet system based on the world’s most popular standard, which is supported by plenty of well-proven handsets, including Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, and efficient infrastructure networking equipment. Sina’s new tie-up, though probably not exclusive, marks a huge affirmation that China’s top Internet content provider sees Unicom as the leading the mobile Internet in China for at least the next couple of years. If its guess is correct, and I think there’s a good chance it will be, we should see Unicom steadily take share from China Mobile in the 3G space, and perhaps even surpass it by the end of next year.

Bottom line: Sina’s new mobile Internet tie-up with China Unicom is a huge endorsement for Unicom, which could surpass China Mobile in the 3G space by the end of next year.

仍然怀疑中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>对行业龙头中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>构成的挑战？看看联通与中国门户网站新浪<SINA.O>近日的联姻，疑虑就该打消了。联通与新浪在多个领域深度合作，包括时下热门的新浪微博衍生产品开发，这是对联通3G互联网业务的巨大支持。联通在3G领域迅速侵吞中国移动的市场份额。只要在中国生活，你就会明白为何联通崛起速度如此之快。手机用户不断抱怨中国移动无线网络服务太慢、太不可靠。中移动受政府分配的本土3G标准掣肘，3G市场开发走得相当艰辛。而中国联通所用3G技术为全球通用标准，受到很多知名手机厂商的支持，包括苹果公司<AAPL.O>的iPhone在内，而且联通还拥有非常有效的基础网络设备。虽然此次与新浪联姻未必排他，但它标志着新浪将联通视为至少未来几年本国移动互联网市场的领头企业。如果猜测无误——我认为猜准的机率非常大——我们应该看到联通在3G领域稳步抢占中国移动的市场份额，甚至有望在明年年底超越後者。

一句话：新浪近日联手中国联通是对後者的巨大肯定，联通明年年底前有望在3G领域超过中国移动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

◙ Unicom Calls on BlackBerry – Finally! 联通推出黑莓业务 可望後来居上

◙ Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好

You certainly have to give Huawei Technologies credit for taking a long-term approach to cracking the difficult but lucrative US market. After being rejected twice in previous US initiatives, one to buy former rival and joint venture partner 3Com and another to buy a small firm called 3Leaf (previous post), Huawei seems to be taking a softer, friendlier approach to try and convince wary US politicians it’s not just an arm of the Chinese government. In its latest move on the softer side, Huawei has just announced it is setting up a cloud computing R&D center in the Canadian capital with Carleton University and Canadian telecoms products maker Telus (Toronto: T). (company announcement) Investment in the center isn’t huge, at just $1.4 million, but it does look quite strategic, bringing Huawei together with a prominent Canadian university and a fairly large Canadian firm in the hot area of cloud computing. I’m sure Huawei, now the world’s second biggest seller of mobile telecoms equipment, thought long and hard about this move, and wouldn’t be surprised if expensive consultants played a major part in crafting the final announcement. Of course, a single initiative like this won’t suddenly win over conservative US politicians, but clearly this kind of move will soften Huawei’s image in the eyes of some and could thus make it less of an easy target for US China bashers. I’ve previously predicted that Huawei and/or crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) will score their first major North American deal in the 12 months, and with moves like this I still see such a deal occurring.

Bottom line: Huawei’s opening of a Canadian R&D center with a local university is its latest bid to forge a friendlier global image, and should help it win its first big North American deal in the next 12 months.

我们应当赞扬华为以长期策略打入艰难但诱人的美国市场的努力。华为此前在美国竞购前对手及合作夥伴3Com和小型公司3Leaf都以失败告终，现在似乎正采取更温和友好的方式，试图让警觉的美国政客相信，它并不仅仅是属於中国政府的一家企业。华为近期宣布，它将与卡尔顿学院和加拿大电信产品制造商研科（Telus）<T.TO>联手，在加拿大首都成立云计算研发中心。虽然对该中心的投资仅有140万美元，但这看来颇像一个战略之举，因它促使华为与加拿大一个知名学府与加拿大一家大公司在云计算这一热门领域展开合作。我相信，世界第二大移动通信设备制造商华为对此举进行了长期而艰巨的准备，而如果它聘用大牌咨询顾问参与了决策过程，我不会惊讶。当然，单单这样一个举措不会说服美国保守派政客，但此类举措显然会改善一些人心目中华为的形象，或能在一定程度上避免华为沦为美国反华派的攻击目标。我先前就预计，华为和/或中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>一年内将在北美完成首项重大交易，最新进展似乎证明了我的预测。

一句话：华为与加拿大当地学府联手成立研发中心，是打造其全球友好形象的最新举措，应有助於华为未来一年内在北美完成首个大型交易。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

◙ Huawei Prowess on Display in Italy 华为意大利发威

◙ Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

There are two reports out today that indicate Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) ongoing dispute with Beijing over its China mapping service may be close to resolution. In the more significant of the two, Chinese media are saying that Google is in talks with a Chinese partner about setting up a joint venture that would officially own and operate its China mapping service, though no deal has been struck yet. (Chinese article) Those who have followed this issue know that last week related reports emerged saying China had ‘”clarified” that foreign companies wishing to provide mapping services in China needed to do so through a joint venture with a local partner, but that the foreign partner could retain control of the venture. (previous post) Those reports seemed to indicate that Google and Beijing, which had been at loggerheads over the issue, were on the road to settling their disagreement. In the second development that indicates a resolution may be near, research firm Analysys, which tracks online services in China, is saying Google led the China online mapping market in the first quarter with 46 percent share — triple that of its closest rival, AutoNavi (Nasdaq: AMAP) with 15 percent. (English article) This shows Google has clearly spent considerable time and resources to build up this business, and hasn’t abandoned it following its high profile withdrawal from the China search market last year due to disagreements with Beijing over censorship. If things keep moving in this direction, which seems likely, I’d look for a positive announcement from Google within the next month that it has reached agreement with Beijing that will keep it in the China mapping market. On a broader basis, such a development will also be welcomed by foreign Web firms that also occasionally find themselves at odds with heavy-handed Chinese regulators.

Bottom line: Look for a resolution between Google and Beijing in the next month that will allow Google to retain its leading position in China’s online mapping market.

今天有两篇报导称，谷歌<GOOG.O>与中国政府在谷歌在华地图服务方面的争端可能接近解决了。其中一条较重要的报导说，谷歌在与一家中国合作方讨论成立合资公司事宜，以让这家合资公司接手管理谷歌的中国地图服务，但相关协议尚未敲定。如果你一直关注此事，你会记得，上周有媒体报导称，中国政府已经表示，打算在中国提供地图服务的外资企业需要与中国企业成立合资公司，但外资合作方可以保持对合资公司的控制权。这些报导似乎说明，谷歌和中国政府之间的争端即将化解。另外，调研公司Analysys表示，在中国网络地图服务市场，谷歌今年一季度的市场份额达46%，其最大的竞争对手 AutoNavi<AMAP.O>只有15%。这说明，谷歌肯定花了不少时间和资源来推进该项业务，并未在去年高调撤出中国内地市场後放弃这项业务。如果事态继续朝着这个方向发展，我觉得谷歌下月可能会宣布，它与中国政府达成协议，将继续在中国市场提供地图服务。从更广泛的意义上来说，这也会受到那些与中国监管者出现磨擦的外国网络公司的欢迎。

一句话：期待下个月谷歌和中国政府达成协议，可以继续在中国提供地图服务。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google, China Seeking Map Compromise 谷歌与中国寻求妥协

◙ Google Falling Off The China Map 谷歌地图：谈判也没用

◙ Google Bracing for Another Clash with Beijing 谷歌：英雄气短

In what should really come as a surprise to no one, newly released data is showing that new lending by Chinese banks tumbled 14 percent percent in May, even as economists were expecting a slight rise, as part of Beijing’s efforts to slow its racing economy and cool the overheated real estate sector. (English article) Regular readers of this blog will note that I previously said the slowdown could be stronger than many were expecting, after E-House (NYSE: EJ), a leading online real estate services firm, earlier this month reported decidedly downbeat Q1 earnings and forecast more gloom in the coming quarters. (previous post) People who follow China know that Beijing has raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements a number of times over the last six months in a bid to slow down lending. But the untold story here is the less apparent behind-the-scenes effect of Beijing’s market-cooling drive, which has seen banks — which take their orders from the central government — slow down many of their lending processes. Anecdotes on the ground abound about people with good credit unable to get loans for new homes or cars due to delaying by banks — a common Chinese government tactic when there’s no good reason for an outright refusal. The upside of all this is that such delays — which have no basis in real economics — can easily be reversed if Beijing starts to worry about too sharp a slowdown. But in the meantime, look for real estate and car sales to continue their rapid slowdown, with volumes and prices likely to decline in the healthy double-digits at least for the next few months. At the same time, look for stagnation or even declines in bank profits as well as their interest income slows.

Bottom line: Beijing is in no hurry to end a sharp drop in bank lending, meaning prices and sales volumes for big-ticket items like cars and homes will continue falling for the next few months.

在中国政府着力给经济和房地产市场降温之际，最新数据表明，5月份银行新贷款减少14%，这一数字也许并没有出乎任何人的预料，虽然曾有经济学家预计贷款会有小幅增加。经常阅读我的博客的读者会记得，我曾经说过，房地产业此番降温力度将超过很多人的预料。此前一家网络房地产服务商易居中国<EJ.N>本月稍早公布惨淡的一季度财报，并预测未来几个季度更不乐观。熟悉中国情况的读者会知道，中国政府在过去的半年里几次加息和提高银行存款准备金率，以收紧信贷。但这造成的一个後果是，连许多信用记录良好的人也没法及时拿到买房子或车子所需的贷款——包括银行暂时推迟放款。无论如何，房地产和汽车销售都将继续快速下滑，而随着利息收入减少，银行业利润也会停滞不前甚至下降。

一句话：中国政府并不急於结束目前的信贷大降局面，这意味着未来几个月，汽车和房屋的价格和销量都将继续下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ E-House Foundations Looking Outright Shaky 易居中国根基明显摇晃

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

China’s current dominance of rare earth production and solar panels are two reflections of Beijing’s determination to become a global leader in these sectors, which it has done through a series of generous subsidies and other government support. Next on its agenda, and an area that foreign companies would do well to watch, is the strategic and decidedly low-tech area of iron ore. Anyone who follows the steel sector knows that iron ore production is now dominated by foreign names like BHP (London: BHT), Vale (NYSE: VALE) and Rio Tinto (Sydney: RIO), which causes anguish with Beijing each year as its steelmakers negotiate new supply contracts that inevitably see the cost of iron ore climb. To end this cycle, Beijing has made up its mind to sharply boost iron ore production at home and become one of the world’s largest suppliers to feed its own steel-hungry construction and infrastructure sectors. Local media have reported that China intends to break the lock of foreign ore producers on the market by 2015, in part by boosting its domestic production to 1.5 billion tonnes per year — a nearly 50 percent increase from current output. At the same time, Beijing is pushing its domestic ore producers to more than double their overseas mining rights to 200 million tons by  2015. If it works, the big push will drop China’s dependence on foreign-supplied ore to 42 percent of its needs by 2015, from 63 percent last year, experts say. So, will it work? My answer is an unqualified “yes”, which will no doubt undermine the big global giants. In this case, China has plenty of domestic resources it can use to reach this goal, and it’s shown in the past that things like self-reliance in key areas like steel outweigh any economic issues like the high cost of achieving such self-reliance. Furthermore, it shouldn’t face any resistance from either foreign or its own provincial governments, as the former can hardly complain about this kind of domestic plan while the latter group will surely welcome such new investment in their provinces.

Bottom line: China’s plan to reduce its dependence on imported iron ore is almost 100 percent likely to succeed, undermining big international players like Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP.

Note: “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players.

中国目前在稀土生产与太阳能电池板领域的主导地位反应了北京方面的一大决心：成为相关领域的全球领头羊。中国业已提供了一系列慷慨补贴及其他政府扶持政策。它的下一个目标、也是外企特别关注的领域，那就是：战略意义重大、但科技含量不高的铁矿石。任何对钢铁行业有所了解的人都知道，现在的铁矿石生产由必和必拓<BHP.AX>、淡水河谷<VALE.N><VALE5.SA>与力拓<RIO.AX><RIO.L>等海外企业主导。每年中国钢铁企业谈判新的供应合同时，海外主导地位都让北京痛苦不已，铁矿石成本逐年攀升。为结束这种状况，北京下定决心大幅增加国内铁矿石生产，成全球头号供应国，以满足国内建筑与基础设施行业的迫切需求。据当地媒体报导，中国拟到2015年打破海外矿企的垄断地位，措施之一就是实现国产矿年产达15亿吨–比目前产量增加近50%。同时，北京方面还在推动国内矿商2015年前实现海外铁矿石的权益矿达2亿吨。专家分析称如果顺利达标，到2015年中国对外矿依存程度将从去年的63%降至42%。那麽，它到底行得通吗？我的答案是“YES”，这显然能够削弱国际矿业巨擘影响力。中国拥有丰富的国内资源来达到这一目标，而且过往案例证明对於钢铁等关键行业，自足问题胜过任何经济问题，比如说实现自足所需的成本等等。而且，海外与国内地方政府应该都不会带来任何阻力，因海外政府基本无法抱怨此类国内计划，而地方政府必然欢迎当地获此类新投资。

一句话：中国计划降低对外矿的依存程度，成功机率几乎100%，这将削弱力拓、淡水河谷与必和必拓等国际大企业的影响力。

备注：“中国决心已定”是我推出的迷你专栏栏目，主要探讨中国宏观产业政策动向、成功机率及对业界企业的潜在影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

◙ Nanshan’s US Aluminum Investment Set to Ring Hollow 南山铝业的美国投资计划注定会失败

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心：有线电视行业整合