Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

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Just a day after Tudou’s (Nasdaq: TUDO) disappointing IPO that saw its shares drop 12 percent on their trading debut (English article), there’s buzz in the market that Tudou’s top rival, industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) is in talks for an equity investment by Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700). (English article; Chinese article) Such a tie-up would bear a remarkable resemblance to Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) landmark purchase of global online video leader Youtube several years back, and testifies to the fact that online video is a much better business prospect when it has strong support from a company like Google or Tencent, which can use their wider array of services to steer traffic to these more specialized video sites. The development is also interesting because Tencent itself has already flagged video as a major focus area, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into a business it hopes will help to jump-start its sputtering growth. (previous post) If and when it happens, such a tie-up will give money-losing Youku, which already enjoys a market cap more than 4 times the size of Tudou, an even bigger advantage in the video-sharing market, providing the clout of China’s top online game and instant messaging service provider. Such a move could leave Tudou, whose chairman Gary Wang has little or no interest in similar tie-ups, no choice but to find its own partner. Rumors of such a tie-up were already rife in the run-up to Tudou’s IPO, with talk that it was seeking investment from leading online search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which no doubt would still be interested in such a tie-up. (previous post) Other video sharing sites like Xunlei, which had to abort a planned IPO last month as market sentiment tanked (previous post), could also be forced to search for new tie-up partners if a Youku-Tencent alliance takes shape.

Bottom line: An equity tie-up between Youku and Tencent would throw a new dynamic into the video sharing market, forcing other players to seek similar tie-ups.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

◙  Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

Xiu.com Funding Puts Glamor in Online Fashion 服饰类网站前景看好

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Intensifying competition will mean a tough road ahead for broader e-commerce in China, but one area that still looks attractive is apparel, as reflected by a nifty $100 million in new funding for online fashion house Xiu.com. (English article) The tidy amount follows a smaller $20 million funding in March, and this latest round includes such venture capital giants as Warburg Pincus and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. The funding comes less than a month after online footwear seller Yougou.com received a rumored $450 million in funding from a group that included online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), and as another leading online apparel seller, Vancl, gears up for an IPO that should be one of the hottest China offerings in the second half of the year. Apparel is also one of the best selling areas for Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, testifying to the strength of this product category that enjoys strong demand and is relatively less competitive due to higher barriers of entry. By comparison, more general merchandise e-commerce firms like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-backed (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian seem to be locked in an increasingly bloody battle where marketing and distribution costs are markedly higher due to the broader array of products and customers they cater to. Of course, it may only be a matter of time before apparel makers get caught up in their own bloody battle for market share. But unlike general merchandise, these companies can more easily find their own niches due to the wide variety of clothing available, which may buffer them somewhat from cutthroat competition. Either way, the group certainly looks like a strong bet for now, and I would expect Vancl to see strong demand when it finally moves ahead with its IPO after broader market sentiment improves.

Bottom line: A new $100 million funding round for Xiu.com testifies to the strength of online apparel, and bodes well for Vancl’s upcoming IPO.

竞争加剧意味着中国电子商务业前路难一帆风顺，但服饰类领域看似仍具吸引力，时尚购物网走秀网（xiu.com）新一轮融资1亿美元就是例证。走秀网今年3月曾获2,000万美元投资，而本次又获美国华平投资集团（Warburg Pincus）和Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等风投巨头投资。不到一个月前，鞋类销售网优购网（Yougou.com）据传获得4.5亿美元融资，投资方包括网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股（IPO），有望成为下半年最热门的中国上市企业。服饰也是淘宝商城最热销的领域之一，证明此类产品需求强劲，由於进入门槛较高，竞争相对没有那麽激烈。相比之下，销售日用百货的电子商务企业当当网<DANG.N>、京东商城和沃尔玛<WMT.N>投资的1号店似乎陷入激战，由於其产品和消费者范围更广，市场营销和渠道成本也明显更高。当然，服饰类企业激烈争夺市场份额或许也只是早晚的事情。但与一般商品不同，服饰类选择众多，企业更容易找到其小众定位，为其竞争提供了缓冲空间。目前看来，服饰类电子商务前景光明，我认为，市场情绪提振後，当凡客诚品最终进行IPO时，有望获得积极认购。

一句话：走秀网新一轮融资1亿美元证明，网络服饰销售颇具潜力，对凡客诚品即将IPO也是吉兆。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

SMIC Makes the Right Move With New CEO 中芯国际终於明智换帅

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After a tumultuous few months that saw its shares lose half their value amid an internal power struggle, leading Chinese microchip maker SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI) has finally made a smart move by naming an apparently capable outsider as its new CEO (company announcement). The appointment was followed just days later by another announcement of the resignation of a troublesome COO who started the chaos by using Cultural Revolution-style tactics to force out a perfectly capable CEO as he tried to pursue the top position for himself. I have to congratulate SMIC’s major shareholder Datang for finally doing the right thing by getting rid of the former COO, Simon Yang (Yang Shining), who earlier convinced Datang to oust previous CEO David Wang, whose only “fault” was managing to return SMIC to profitability after four years of continuous losses. Datang was probably irked when it realized its mistake in ousting Wang, and was also probably upset when its investment lost half of its market value due to the ill conceived decision. New CEO Tzu-Yin Chiu’s arrival at SMIC from the top position at crosstown rival Huahong NEC means a possible merger between these two companies — rumored for years — could finally move forward as their stakeholders seek to create the world’s a new major chip maker that can compete more effectively with Taiwanese leaders TSMC (Taipei: 2330) and UMC (Taipei: 2303). I would look for a rebound in SMIC’s battered shares in the weeks ahead as markets grow more confident that the power struggle is truly over, and then wouldn’t be surprised to see SMIC continue its slow but steady rise that began under Wang’s leadership more than a year ago. We could even see the long-awaited merger with Huahong NEC in the next year, as both Chiu and SMIC’s recently named new Chairman Zhang Wenyi both have strong ties to the company.

Bottom line: The naming of a competent new CEO and departure of a troublesome COO will help to gradually restore investor confidence in SMIC.

中芯国际<0981.HK><SMI.N>近几个月因内部权力之争导致其股票缩水一半，该公司最终作出明智决定，任命邱慈云为其首席执行官（CEO）。几天后，中芯国际首席运营官（COO）杨士宁辞职。杨士宁曾使用计谋迫使前CEO王宁国辞职，试图自己夺得这一职位，中芯国际管理层随後陷入混乱。我要祝贺中芯国际大股东大唐终於做出正确决策，令杨士宁出局。杨士宁此前曾说服大唐赶走王宁国，而王宁国的唯一“错误”是，在中芯国际连续四年亏损後，设法使公司扭亏为盈。当大唐意识到不应辞掉王宁国後，可能会感到懊恼，而因为这个考虑欠妥的决定，导致其投资市值损失一半时，大唐或许还感到很沮丧。邱慈云从华虹NEC来到中芯国际，意味着两家公司合并或最终有望推进，这一传言已持续多年。其股东希望借此创建全球新的大型芯片制造商，从而更有效地与台积电<2330.TW>和台湾联华电子<UMC.N>竞争。我预计，由於中芯国际权力之争最终尘埃落定，市场信心将逐渐恢复，未来几周公司股价有望反弹，届时，中芯国际继续缓慢稳步增长将不足为奇。华虹NEC和中芯国际甚至有望明年合并，因邱慈云和中芯国际近期任命的主席张文义均与华虹NEC渊源颇深。

一句话：中芯国际COO杨士宁离职，邱慈云出任CEO，将有助於逐步恢复投资者信心。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ SMIC: Consolidation Ahead 中芯国际任命新高管 或有助於业内合并

◙ SMIC Transition Begins, Instability Ahead 中芯国际高层大动荡 公司或将陷入混乱

◙ SMIC Top Management in Throes of Power Struggle 中芯国际管理层陷入权力之争

Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

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Note: To readers of my postings in English, I’d like to apologize for the original version of this article, which said the IPO would value Tudou at $3.2 billion. That figure was taken from a Financial Times article which, it turns out, vastly overstated Tudou’s market cap, which should have been $822 million. I’ve recast the posting slightly in light of that error and taken out the Financial Times link, but I do stand by my previous assessment that the IPO will be a dud on its debut.

I’m getting a bit weary of writing about video sharing site Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), which might consider changing its company description to “master of media manipulation” to reflect the way it has cleverly leaked a steady stream of rumors into the market to try and create buzz about its upcoming IPO. After a tumultuous week that saw rumors of at least 3 potential buyers for Tudou in the Chinese media (previous post), the company has finally gone ahead and priced its IPO in the middle of its indicated range, scuttling any potential for a last-minute buy-out of the company. Media are reporting that Tudou’s IPO pricing gives it a market cap of $822 million, about a third of that for rival Youku (NYSE: YOKU), whose shares doubled after its IPO late last year but have given back most of those gains since then. (English article; Chinese article) Youku’s shares actually fell 8 percent in Tuesday trade on Wall Street, reflecting investor disappointment that it wasn’t able to engineer a last-minute acquisition of Tudou that Tudou chairman Gary Wang was never really serious about to start with. I’m expecting Tudou’s shares to fall on their Wednesday trading debut, as the market I doubt there is much demand for this money-losing company that is a clear number-two in its sector to Youku, although its underwriters who should be commended for generating interest in the offering despite dismal market conditions. Once its price stabilizes, I’d look for Tudou, which lost $12 million in the second quarter, to quietly fade from the headlines and get back to the business of trying to turn profitable.

Bottom line: Tudou’s stock will falter on its trading debut, and will fail to attract much investor interest over the longer term.

关於视频分享网站–土豆网的文章，我都写得有点儿腻了。土豆网或许可以考虑把公司介绍变成“媒体操控大师”，因其巧妙地向市场放出一系列传言，为其即将到来的IPO造势。据中国媒体近期报导，至少有三个潜在买家有意购买土豆网。现在土豆网终於扬帆前行，将IPO价格定在预估区间的中间值，消除了被收购的可能。媒体报导称，据发行价计算，其市值将为8.22亿美元，约为竞争对手优酷网<YOKU.N>市值的三分之一。优酷网去年年底上市，股价曾上涨约一倍，但随後便回吐了多数增幅。优酷股价周二下挫8%，反映出投资者的失望情绪，因其未能收购土豆网，而土豆网董事长王微并不真心想进行此项交易。我预计土豆网股价在周三的首个交易日将下挫，因我怀疑市场是否对这家亏损企业有很大兴趣。土豆在视频分享领域位列第二，仅次于优酷。在目前市场人气低迷的情况下，承销商能为其IPO赢得足够的认购热情亦颇值得赞许。一旦其股价稳定，我预计那时的土豆网不再会受到媒体太多关注，而其将专心实现盈利。

一句话：土豆网股价将在首个交易日下挫，且在较长时间内投资者很难对其有较大兴趣。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tudou Name Tossed Around as IPO Looms IPO临近 土豆网新闻多

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

 

China Hotels: Is the Holiday Over?

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7 Days (NYSE: SVN) has just reported its second-quarter results, becoming the last of China’s top 3 budget hotel operators to report on a landscape that looks like the holiday may be over for these former high-flyers. Among the trio, which also includes Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) and Hanting hotels operator China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT), only 7 Days reported respectable revenue growth of 42 percent for the quarter, with China Lodging reporting 25 percent growth and Home Inns reporting 12 percent. But more worrisome, all 3 said they expect the growth rate to slow in the third quarter, and both Home Inns and China Lodging lowered their 2011 revenue outlook by about 16 percent. (7 Days results; Home Inn results; China Lodging results) It’s probably too soon to say the big-growth days are finished for the budget hotel sector, which expanded rapidly in the last 5 years as millions of newly mobile Chinese took to the roads for both business and leisure travel. All 3 companies saw especially strong growth in last year’s second and third quarters during the Shanghai Expo, and cited the “Expo effect” as partly responsible for this year’s slowdown as business returns to more normal levels. (previous post) Still, the fact that 2 of the 3 companies lowered their full-year guidance means the post-Expo slowdown is worse than expected, possibly due to Beijing’s ongoing efforts to try and slow its racing economy. Consolidation in the sector seems inevitable, with both Home Inns and 7 Days announcing recent acquisitions to improve their scale and performance. (previous post)  That said, a return to better growth for all 3 looks inevitable starting in the fourth quarter, when both Home Inns and 7 Days will start to include their acquisitions in their results and when the Expo hangover effect will finally be in the past.

Bottom line: China’s budget hotel operators will post weak results through the third quarter, but will return to more robust growth by year end as the Expo effect fades.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hotel Consolidation Moves Ahead With 7 Days Deal 七天连锁酒店收购表明酒店业整合继续

◙ Home Inns Finds Room at Motel168 After All 如家最终收购莫泰168

◙ Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期

Renesola Rights Plan: Consolidation Coming

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The alternate energy sector’s current downturn may have bottomed, but signs of pain still linger, as reflected by the latest announcements from Renesola (NYSE: SOL), which may be bracing for hostile takeover attempts, and Yang Ming Wind Power (NYSE: MY), which reported anemic results and sharply reduced its full year outlook. In what looks like a first for the industry, Renesola has announced it will implement a shareholder rights issue plan, something companies do when they believe they could face a hostile takeover bid. (company announcement) Renesola added it knows of no imminent hostile takeover bids, but is rather seeking to protect its shareholders in case such a bid occurs. With a share price that has tumbled by more than two-thirds since March and a rock-bottom price-to-earnings ratio of 1.7, Renesola could indeed look like an attractive takeover target in an industry that is sorely in need of consolidation. Investors also seem to believe something may be in the works, with Renesola’s battered shares jumping more than 7 percent in Monday trade on Wall Street. Given such low valuations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a buyout or two announced for Renesola or one of its other battered mid-sized competitors in the next few months. Meantime, Ming Yang has come out with its own weak results, and reduced its full year sales outlook by a hefty 20 percent. (company announcement) Even the lower full-year target looks difficult, with the company saying it hopes to sell 1.8 to 2 gigawatts worth of wind turbines in 2011, after selling only 0.7 gigawatts worth in the first half of the year. Its recent tie-up in China with the developer of the Three Gorges Dam project could put some wind back in its sails (previous post) in the second half of the year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more downward revisions before the year is finished.

Bottom line: Renesola’s shareholder rights plan could signal a coming wave of consolidation in the solar sector, with mid-sized companies like Renesola as attractive buy-out targets.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

◙ China Tie-Up Pushes Wind Power in US 国电和富国银行的合作推动美国风电的发展

◙ Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

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While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets.  (Chinese article) The article doesn’t provide a lot more detail, but does say the insurrection has been going on since April, and could see Nokia report sharply lower sales in the world’s largest cellphone market by subscribers when second-quarter numbers start to come out. If true, this rapid fall in fortunes for Nokia would mirror its rapid global decline. Chinese consumers, like everyone else, are always looking for the latest and coolest cellphone, and Nokia’s offerings just don’t look nearly as sleek as smartphones from Apple or Samsung. What’s more, lower end producers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are appealing to more cost-conscious consumers, offering cool, low-priced smartphones costing as little as $100 each based on Google’s Android operating system. Nokia, by comparison, can only offer phones based on its own Symbian system, which most people find uninspired and is due for retirement by the end of this year. The trend for Nokia resembles what happened several years ago in China to Motorola, whose fall from grace was also rapid and for similar reasons. If this report is true, and I think there’s a good chance it is, Nokia could easily lose its crown as the top mobile phone seller in China within the next year.

Bottom line: A rebellion by Chinese cellphone sellers against Nokia reflects the company’s broader fall from grace, and could see it lose its market-leading position in China in the next 12 months.

谷歌<GOOG.O>收购摩托罗拉移动<MMI.N>成为全球热议话题，而在中国，一份有关诺基亚<NOK.N>的报告更令人关注。诺基亚曾是中国手机市场霸主，但其市场份额正迅速被苹果<AAPL.O>和三星<005930.KS>等新秀蚕食。该报告显示，大批中国代理商拒绝进诺基亚手机，看起来很像一场对诺基亚主导国内外市场多年的反抗。文章并未提供更多细节，但称从4月起，中国各地代理商开始对诺基亚“说不”。二季度数据出炉时，诺基亚在华销量料将大幅下滑。如果情况确实如此，诺基亚盈利迅速减少，将反映其在全球市场的迅速衰落。与其他国家一样，中国消费者也总是青睐最酷的新款手机，而诺基亚手机难与苹果或三星的智能手机媲美。此外，中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>等较低端手机生产商推出时尚的Android智能手机，每款售价低至100美元，对节省开支的消费者更具吸引力。相比之下，诺基亚只有采用塞班系统的手机，许多人觉得该系统缺乏新意，预计将於今年年底前“退役”。这很像几年前摩托罗拉在华面临的困境，摩托罗拉当年也是由於类似原因，迅速走下坡路。如果这份有关诺基亚的报告属实，我认为，诺基亚很可能将在明年失去中国手机市场霸主地位。

一句话：中国大批代理商对诺基亚手机“说不”，证明诺基亚手机进一步“失宠”，或在一年内失去在华市场的主导地位。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Motorola, Huawei Settle, Now Everyone Can Move On 华为与摩托罗拉和解，各方均受益

◙ Guest Post: Move Over Nokia and RIM, Here Comes HTC

Bright Finally Finds Tasty M&A in Australia’s Manassen 光明食品终於觅得“佳偶”

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After nearly a year on the M&A trail, Shanghai’s Bright Food appears to be on the brink of finally landing its first overseas purchase with a deal to buy Manassen Foods, an Australian maker of  chocolates and bread. (English article) Terms of the deal, still being negotiated, would see Bright, China’s second largest food group, buy 75 percent of the Australian company for around $416 million, valuing Manassen at about $550 million. People who follow Chinese companies will recall that Bright’s name has popped up at least a half dozen times over the last year in conjunction with various international M&A, with Bright most recently chasing another Australian company, Treasury Wine (Sydney: TWE), just last month. (previous post) Bright has said on numerous occasions it is interested in acquiring overseas brands, so from that perspective this deal should come as no surprise. It’s hard to say too much about this purchase yet, as no financials are being provided at this stage. But on the surface at least, itl looks pretty good for Bright. Manassen looks like a nice mid-sized company, based on the market valuation, and should easily be affordable for Bright, which earlier this year raised $1 billion in a bond offering and share sale for one of its units. (previous post) Bright’s purchase of a 75 percent stake will give it comfortable control of Manassen, which presumably is profitable. There are still a few concerns, most notably the question of whether Bright, in its obvious eagerness for overseas M&A, has overpaid for Manassen. Bright will also have to be careful in terms of managing this company: cross-cultural problems could easily emerge if it tries to exercise too much control; but on the other hand, a too hands-off approach could also pose problems if Manassen managers believe their rich new Chinese ownership gives them a license to take too many risks.

Bottom line: Bright Food’s $416 million purchase of Australia’s Manassen Foods looks good initially, marking a manageable step for Bright onto the global food stage.

在并购路上寻寻觅觅将近一年後，上海光明食品集团公司似乎终於要锁定第一起海外并购了。光明食品将收购澳大利亚巧克力与面包品牌Manassen Foods。根据仍在洽谈中的交易协约，光明食品将以4.16亿美元收购Manassen Foods公司75%的股份，公司给予後者的估值为约5.5亿美元。留意中国公司新闻的人应该记得光明食品过去一年来在多起跨国并购中均多次出现，最近一次就在上个月，光明食品有意求购另外一家澳大利亚公司Treasury Wine<TWE.AX>。光明已经多次表示有兴趣收购海外品牌，所以从这个角度来看，公司此次收购Manassen并不意外.目前还不宜对交易过多评头品足，因为具体财务细节还没有提供。不过，Manassen从市场估值来看像是一个不错的中型企业，对光明而言应该也买得起。收购Manassen公司75%的股份可让光明轻松掌握控股权。但问题还是有的。最突出的一个就是，一心追求海外并购的光明食品对Manassen的出价是否过高。光明食品在公司管理方面也需特别留意：光明如对Manassen控制过火，很容易出现跨文化问题。但从另一方面来说，如果Manassen管理层认为东家的大款容许自己承担更大风险，光明太过坐视不理也不大好。

一句话：光明食品4.16亿美元购澳洲食品企业初看起来还不错，对於光明走向全球舞台算得上是过得去的一步。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Nestle, Bright Food Cross-Border M&A Look Sweet 雀巢、光明食品跨境并购前景看好

◙ Bright Food Sets Table for More M&A Bids 光明食品：高举并购大旗

◙ Unilever Helps China See the Light Behind Free Markets 联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进

Tudou Name Tossed Around as IPO Looms IPO临近 土豆网新闻多

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I have to say that video sharing site Tudou gets this year’s award for most mentioned company in media reports in the run-up to its bumpy IPO, with new wrinkles in this strange story sprouting up in the media almost daily. After reporting last week the company was in talks to sell part or all of itself to leading online search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), Chinese media went on to say the company was also in talks with leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU), as well as another online video site called LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104). (English article; Chinese article) Meantime, international media reported about the same time late last week that Tudou’s $180 million IPO — which was originally set for late last year but got delayed due to Chairman Gary Wang’s messy divorce — had been fully subscribed, with pricing set for Tuesday and an official trading debut on Wednesday. So, what’s going on here? Clearly Wang is trying to wheel and deal his way to a deal that will give his company the highest valuation possible, and he’s most probably seeing better valuations from a sale of his company than he is for an IPO. Cash-rich Baidu and Youku are most likely offering the best deals, but both of those would almost certainly require Wang to step down as chairman — something he and heads of similar Chinese companies are usually reluctant to do. An IPO would obviously allow Wang to stay on as chairman, and it’s quite possible the company or its bankers are deliberately leaking rumors about acquisitions to the media to stir up investor interest in an otherwise chilly IPO market. If I were a bettor, I would put my money on the IPO going forward, with a 70 percent chance of success. Among the private buyers, Baidu probably stands a better chance than Youku, as the former can offer more money and also the small possibility that Wang can continue to run the business. Stay tuned for an interesting finale to this rocky but colorful IPO later in the week.

Bottom line: Tudou is likely to go ahead with its $180 million IPO, declining lucrative buyout offers as chairman Gary Wang opts for control of the company over cash.

不得不说，土豆网在走向IPO的道路上，算得上是今年中国媒体提及最多的一家企业了，关於土豆的新闻几乎天天不缺。上周媒体报导，百度<BIDU.O>正在洽购土豆，中国媒体现在又称土豆也在与优酷网<YOKU.N>、乐视网<300104.Z>洽谈。同时，国际媒体上周大约同一时间报导，土豆1.8亿美元IPO已经获得足额认购，定价日定於本周二，周三为首个交易日。那麽，到底是什麽情况？显然土豆网董事长兼CEO王微有着自己的算盘，想要按照自己的方式为公司争取最高的估值，而且他可能觉得出售公司的估值比IPO的会更高。百度、优酷最有可能给出好报价，但两家公司几乎一定都会要求王微辞任董事长，这是他与其他很多类似中国企业的负责人都不愿意做的事情。IPO显然可以让王微保住董事长的职位，而且极有可能是土豆自己或帮助其上市的投行故意向媒体透露收购传闻，以激起投资者对公司IPO的兴趣。如果要赌的话，我会把钱压在IPO上，胜算七成。土豆的各家求购者中，百度的机会可能要比优酷大一些，因为百度给的钱可能会更多，而且王微还有很小的机会继续管理公司。土豆曲折离奇而又多姿多彩的IPO本周稍晚如何落幕？大家不妨拭目以待。

一句话：土豆可能会继续推进IPO，拒绝其他企业的收购报价，因为在权、钱衡量中，王微更倾向於掌控公司的控制权。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

All Eyes Turn to TV in TCL Comeback

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TCL Corp’s (Shenzhen: 000100) latest results reveal its comeback story is still alive, although the focus has shifted from cellphones to its older TV business as the company refinds its footing in both areas. The latest results show that TCL’s profit more than tripled in the first half of the year to nearly $100 million, while its revenue grew a more modest 18 percent to about $4.2 billion. (English article) The driving force behind its profit growth was the TV business, TCL Multimedia (HKEx: 1070), which returned to profitability after a loss a year earlier and generally poor performance in recent years after its difficult purchase of Thomson Electronics’ TV business in 2005. Strong performance in emerging markets like Brazil and Indonesia were largely to credit, as TCL returned to its roots as an emerging market specialist. The cellphone business, TCL Communication (HKEx: 2618) underwent a similar steep downturn after its purchase of Alcatel’s (Paris: ALUA) cellphone assets around the same time, but came back last year with triple-digit gains on both the top and bottom line as it finally managed to leverage the Alcatel brand name to score major overseas deals. Not too surprisingly, the blistering growth for cellphones slowed quite a bit in the first half, with revenue up just 27 percent and profit up 50 percent. TCL’s charismatic chairman Thomson Li held a news conference to discuss the results, in which he chastised reporters for writing off the Alcatel and Thomson acquisitions as disasters. (Chinese article) I was one of those reporters who considered both purchases disastrous, but will admit that Li seems to have salvaged both deals, largely by shifting all of Thomson’s and Alcatel’s production to China while continuing to use their global brands to develop international sales. For now at least, the big story at TCL’s comeback seems to be shifting to the TV business and its future potential, while the cellphone business looks set for a rapid slowdown.

Bottom line: TCL Corp looks like a good investment bet based on a comeback for its TV business, while its cellphone business looks set to slow sharply after a strong comeback last year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ TCL Comeback Gains Momentum with Italy Deals TCL牵手意大利 复苏之势获动力

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ TCL on the Comeback Trail With Samsung Tie-Up TCL与三星结盟 重振旗鼓

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

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Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.

Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.

互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。

一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域