Bottom line: LeTV could be a company to watch as it embarks on a global expansion, drawing on a savvy business model that sells smart TVs and smartphones at low prices in exchange for video subscription contracts.
LeTV makes cryptic debut at trade show
A major telecoms show happening this week in Spain was filled with small bits of news, but one of the biggest surprises came when I stumbled on an area decked out with signage for the racy online video firm LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104). So far as I could tell, none of the company’s many rivals like Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU) and iQiyi were at the show, and even global leader YouTube was absent. That’s not hard to understand, since the Mobile World Congress taking place in Barcelona is a telecoms show whose main attendees are telecoms equipment and smartphone makers. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: 58.com’s purchase of a secondary real estate trading site at a big discount looks like a shrewd move for the longer term, but could cause a short-term drag on profits due to weakness in China’s property market.
58.com buys Anjuke for bargain price
Local media are buzzing about a relatively large Internet deal that will see leading online classified advertising site 58.com (NYSE: WUBA) buy Anjuke, one of China’s largest online platforms for services involving secondary real estate. But the source of the buzz isn’t the deal itself, but rather the huge bargain that 58.com is getting compared to what Anjuke said it was worth just a year ago. That massive discount reflects the broader gloom surrounding China’s real estate market as it teeters on the edge of a major correction, and certainly doesn’t bode well for listed peers like E-House (NYSE: EJ) and SouFun (Nasdaq: SFUN). Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Beijing needs to roll out new rules allowing limited foreign investment in sensitive areas or risk seeing private companies like Ant Financial suffer from slower growth and artificially low valuations.
foreign investment bans need new approach
Alibaba-affiliated (NYSE: BABA) Ant Financial has been on a financial roller coaster ride over the past month, as it tries to raise billions of dollar to fund its growth en route to an IPO that will offer Chinese investors one of their first plays into the private banking sector. Some reports have said the new funding could value Ant, whose largest asset is the Alipay electronic payments service, at up to $50 billion. But others have put the figure as low as $30 billion, reflecting the intense negotiations taking place. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Ant Financial is likely to get a low valuation from its new private placement due to the exclusion of foreign investors, but could see the figure reach up to $70 billion by the time of its 2017 IPO if it can rapidly build up its new services.
SOEs squeeze Ant Financial’s valuation
Yet another report has come out about an ongoing private placement by Ant Financial, saying the financial services affiliate of e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is now planning a domestic IPO in 2017. That’s a little later than was indicated in previous reports, which were probably a little too optimistic about a company whose various businesses are mostly less than 2 years old.
But the more interesting element in this recent flurry of reports has been what valuation the new private placement will bring for Ant, which is financially separate from the New York-listed Alibaba. Some of the earlier reports indicated Ant could be valued at up to $50 billion, which admittedly looks quite optimistic for a firm at its stage of development. But now the latest reports are bringing the number down sharply, saying the new funding will value Ant at between $35 billion and $40 billion. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A mega IPO by Postal Savings Bank next year is likely to attract little or no interest from private investors, while an upcoming IPO by 55Tuan could do slightly better but will still get only a lukewarm reception.
55Tun misses pricing target date
A couple of unattractive IPOs are in the headlines as China gets back to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, led by a massive plan by China’s Postal Savings Bank to raise up to $25 billion as soon as next year. While that plan may be a year or more away, a more advanced listing by group-buying site 55Tuan has failed to price its shares by a previously announced target date, leading some to speculate that the deal is running into trouble. Neither of these deals looks very exciting to me, and I suspect they won’t attract much interest from private investors either. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The huge success of Tencent’s hongbao promotions over the Lunar New Year reflects the growing dominance of WeChat, which could marginalize other mobile services unless regulators step in to create a more level playing field.
WeChat clobbers Alibaba in red envelope promotions
I remember a time not long ago when we China tech reporters used to write annual stories about the number of people who sent billions of simple Lunar New Year text greetings over their mobile phones. Those days now seem like a distant memory, and new data from Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) WeChat and Alibaba’s (NYSE: BABA) Alipay are showing just how small those earlier figures were, even though they seemed impressive at the time.
But the real story in this new tide of “red envelope grabbing wars”, known as qiang hongbao in Chinese, is the huge victory for Tencent over Alibaba, which I’ll describe shortly. That victory owes directly to the huge popularity of WeChat, which saw many of its hundreds of millions of users glued to their smartphones for much of the Lunar New Year while they ignored everything else. Instead of the usual New Year activities, they spent much of the holiday trying to “grab” millions of yuan in gift money being doled out over WeChat by their friends, bosses and also by Tencent and Alibaba themselves. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: NetEase’s new California R&D center could become an important hub for its future global growth, while Zynga’s China pull-out reflects the extreme difficulties foreign firms face in the local gaming market.
NetEase opens US R&D center
Just a day after I wrote that online gaming giant Tencent (HKEx: 700) may be planning a major new drive into the US, we’re hearing that its top rival NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) is also moving into the neighborhood with plans for a new California R&D center. NetEase’s move comes after search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent both set up US offices last year, though only Baidu actually announced a major new product development center. (previous post) All of these moves represent the Chinese companies’ efforts to tap into the Silicon Valley ethos, which has far more of the skills they will need in their quest to enter global markets outside of China. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baidu’s approach of targeting developing markets like Brazil and now the Middle East looks smart due to similarities with China and fewer rivals, while Tencent’s focus on the US looks dubious due to stiff competition.
Internet names in different global approaches
Having become some of the world’s most valuable online companies over the last few years, China’s big Internet names are now looking globally to maintain the kind of growth they’ll need to justify their sky-high valuations. All are trying a number of strategies, but 2 broadly defined camps are emerging: one targeting developing markets like the BRICS, which are less lucrative and more fragmented, but also less competitive; and the other targeting developed markets like the US and Japan that can be very rewarding but are also extremely competitive.
Search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is squarely in the developing market camp, with search operations in Brazil and Thailand, and now new signs it is targeting the Middle East for its next overseas expansion. Tencent (HKEx: 700) appears to be the latter camp, following a high profile entry for its WeChat service into the US last year that now appears to have ended as a very expensive flop. Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) appears to be trying both options, though we have yet to hear of any major spending on any campaigns besides a few small overseas acquisitions. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The new purchase of 3 smaller rivals by Ourpalm could position the company as a consolidator for China’s fragmented gaming sector, and could be followed by one or more similar purchases in the next year.
Ourpalm buys 3 smaller rivals
A newly announced deal will see online game operator Ourpalm (Shenzhen: 300315) combine with 3 smaller rivals in a relatively large deal that could lay the foundation for a major new player to drive much-needed consolidation in the space. The new company looks interesting for a number of reasons, including Ourpalm’s existing connection with leading movie maker Huayi Bros, which could become an important strategic partner for the company.
Ourpalm could also become a strong platform to absorb some of the smaller Hong Kong- and New York-listed gaming companies that have struggled for investor attention due to stalling profit and revenue growth caused by their lack of scale. Potential players for future tie-ups could include recently listed Hong Kong players like Linekong (HKEx: 8267) and Forgame (HKEx: 484), or New York-listed Sungy Mobile (Nasdaq: GOMO), whose shares have all languished since their IPOs. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China’s regulators are unlikely to veto the merger of taxi apps Didi and Kuaidi, and should encourage similar consolidation to allow for creation of Internet firms that can be globally competitive.
Yongche accuses Didi-Kuaidi of creating monopoly
Just a day after China’s leading 2 taxi apps announced their plan to merge, a series of observers are voicing concerns that the marriage would be anti-competitive and should be vetoed on antitrust grounds. The sudden debate about the merger of Kuaidi Dache and Didi Dache isn’t too surprising, since it would create a company that would control the vast majority of China’s market for taxi and private car services. But the regulator will need to decide whether such talk of monopoly is justified, since in many ways the newly merged company is still quite small and will also face strong competition from global rivals. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The merger of Didi and Kuaidi taxi apps could mark the start of a new round of consolidation between non-core assets of China’s major Internet firms.
Taxi apps Didi and Kuaidi to merge
After 2 years of making nonstop headlines due to their intense rivalry, leading taxi apps Didi Dache and Kuaidi Dache are leading the news once more with a new and quite unexpected merger. But equally interesting was the fact that this merger also marked an unusual shift in the equally bitter rivalry between Internet titans Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which are Kuaidi’s and Didi’s main backers, respectively. That element of the story has huge implications, as it shows that China’s “Big 3” Internet companies of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) may be willing to consider similar mergers of their non-core assets, paving the way for a new and much-needed round of consolidation in areas like online video, mapping and group buying. Read Full Post…
