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Tencent latest Business & Financial news from Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese High Tech Market, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters)

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

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The central government, unwilling to directly tackle Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a monopoly despite its dominant position in the online search market, is instead attacking the company on several smaller fronts in a bid to curtail its influence. In one of two major developments, Chinese media are reporting that the telecoms regulator is preparing new online search regulations that would force all search engines to clearly state which of their results are paid and which are organic. (English article) Baidu currently mixes both types of results together, a practice many consider misleading, and charges advertisers a premium to have their paid results appear alongside organic results — something global leaders Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) stopped doing long ago after public criticism. The influential China Central Television (CCTV), China’s national broadcaster, has been leading the charge on this front, fanning consumer outrage by broadcasting a series of investigative reports on the issue. (English article) In the second development, another industry regulator has called on all major Web sites to stop offering pirated music, in what again looks like a shot aimed at Baidu, whose popular music swapping service is rife with pirated songs. Baidu last month signed its first-ever deal with threel major music labels to provide legal copies of their songs, but added it had no plans to shut down the more popular site offering pirated titles. (previous post) These latest two government campaigns appear to be Beijing’s attempt to create a more level playing field in the lucrative online search market by attacking two of Baidu’s most popular tactics, both of which are ethically questionable. While such moves may help global leaders like Google and Yahoo, which operate in more transparent fashion, they are unlikely to boost domestic search engines like those operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), which probably also use questionable tactics similar to Baidu’s.

Bottom line: The central government appears to be launching a campaign to rein in monopolistic Baidu, but will need to do more to create a more level playing field in online search.

对于百度(BIDU.O)在中国网络搜索市场上一家独大的局面，政府虽不愿直接开刀，但为限制其影响力，似乎已选择在一些小的方面敲打百度了，就以最近两个较大的事件为例来说明问题。其一，据中国媒体报导，电信监管机构正准备出台在线搜索新规，迫使所有搜索引擎明确列出哪些是付费搜索结果、哪些是自然搜索结果。目前百度是把两种结果混在一起，容易造成误解，这种做法因遭非议，早已被谷歌(GOOG.O)与雅虎(YHOO.O)等弃用。中国中央电视台在炮轰百度问题上打起头阵，针对百度相关问题播报了大量的调查性报导，鼓动公众情绪。 第二例，另一家行业监管机构要求各大网站停止提供盗版音乐，此举看起来又是针对百度，人气很高的百度音乐搜索服务充斥着盗版歌曲。百度上月与三大唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议，为用户提供合法音乐内容，但百度补充说无意关闭人气更高的、提供盗版音乐下载的音乐搜索服务。政府近来这两大举措出击百度两种受欢迎的应用，其意似乎在于为在线搜索市场创造更加平等的竞争环境。此类举措可能让操作较为透明的谷歌与雅虎等全球巨头渔翁得利，但国内搜索引擎，如腾讯(0700.HK)与搜狐(SOHU.O)等，恐怕难得到好处。

一句话：政府似乎开始出招修理一家独大的百度，但要想创造网络搜索市场竞争氛围更加公平，政府还要拿出更多行动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

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Just a day after Tudou’s (Nasdaq: TUDO) disappointing IPO that saw its shares drop 12 percent on their trading debut (English article), there’s buzz in the market that Tudou’s top rival, industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) is in talks for an equity investment by Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700). (English article; Chinese article) Such a tie-up would bear a remarkable resemblance to Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) landmark purchase of global online video leader Youtube several years back, and testifies to the fact that online video is a much better business prospect when it has strong support from a company like Google or Tencent, which can use their wider array of services to steer traffic to these more specialized video sites. The development is also interesting because Tencent itself has already flagged video as a major focus area, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into a business it hopes will help to jump-start its sputtering growth. (previous post) If and when it happens, such a tie-up will give money-losing Youku, which already enjoys a market cap more than 4 times the size of Tudou, an even bigger advantage in the video-sharing market, providing the clout of China’s top online game and instant messaging service provider. Such a move could leave Tudou, whose chairman Gary Wang has little or no interest in similar tie-ups, no choice but to find its own partner. Rumors of such a tie-up were already rife in the run-up to Tudou’s IPO, with talk that it was seeking investment from leading online search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which no doubt would still be interested in such a tie-up. (previous post) Other video sharing sites like Xunlei, which had to abort a planned IPO last month as market sentiment tanked (previous post), could also be forced to search for new tie-up partners if a Youku-Tencent alliance takes shape.

Bottom line: An equity tie-up between Youku and Tencent would throw a new dynamic into the video sharing market, forcing other players to seek similar tie-ups.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

◙  Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

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Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.

Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.

互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。

一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

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Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achieves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.

Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.

新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域，都算是後来者，但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉，上月启动轻博客公测版後，其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充，两款产品实现相互联通，实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长，若到今年底用户达到1,000万，我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实，则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N)，今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速，微博也开始盈利，我认为，最快到明年底，新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起，在美国上市。与此同时，腾讯也制定详细计划，打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网，将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似，腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群，将服务拓展至新领域，短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O)，成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然，腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些，需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位，我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客，其成功几乎没有悬念。

一句话：新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量，而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

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Competition appears to be getting stiff in the Chinese group buying space, with word that Groupon-invested Gaopeng is dumping its paid search spend on both Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they have simply become two expensive. (English article) The reports cite unnamed sources, but if true, the news is significant because it marks the lightest sign of trouble in the vibrant group buying space. It could also be an early warning sign for Baidu, which is trying to squeeze more money out of its advertisers as growth in the new sign-ups for its advertising services slows. (previous post) Regular readers will recall that group buying sites were all the rage among venture capitalists earlier this year, with three sites, Dianping, 55Tuan and Lashou raising $500 million combined, as global leader Groupon also entered the China market by forming Gaopeng together with Tencent (HKEx: 700). 55Tuan became the first company to show signs of trouble when reports emerged earlier this week that at least 3 major investment banks were refusing to underwrite its planned IPO due to accounting concerns. (previous post) This latest report on Gaopeng would seem to reinforce that group buying is not quite as big in China yet as all the hype, with Gaopeng itself only generating a relatively modest 30 million yuan per month in revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two of these group buying sites combine within the next year as competition remains intense. Meantime, Gaopeng’s dumping of Baidu could also be an early warning sign for China’s search leader, which could start to see similar defections as companies balk at paying Baidu’s higher ad rates. Baidu said earlier this week that spending from individual customers grew by more than 50 percent in the second quarter (previous post), and clearly some customers like Gaopeng are not happy with those big increases and are looking for more cost effective ways to advertise.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s dropping of Baidu’s paid search services reflects both intense competition in the group buying space, and also a coming wave of defections by cost-conscious Baidu advertisers.

中国团购行业的竞购看似日益激烈，有传言称，Groupon投资的高朋网因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。报导援引了匿名消息人士的说法，但若真有此事，这则消息可谓重磅，因这意味着中国如火如荼的团购行业初露窘相。这可能也是对百度的一个早期预警，百度正试图向其广告客户收取更高的费用，因其广告业务的新签订单步伐放缓。经常看我博客的读者应该还记得，团购网站今年早些时候可谓风行一时，大众点评网、窝窝团和拉手网三家网站共募得5亿美元风险资金，与此同时，美国团购网站Groupon携手腾讯<0700.HK>成立了高朋网，进军中国市场。窝窝团是首家显露困境的团购网站，本周早些时候有报导称，至少三家国际投行因担心会计问题而拒绝代理其上市业务。这则关於高朋网的最新报导似乎再次说明，团购在中国的发展并非像炒作的那般声势浩大，高朋网一个月的营收也仅有3,000万元。随着竞争的白热化，倘若未来一年内有一两家团购网站合并重组，我将不会感到意外。同时，高朋放弃在百度投放广告也为百度提了个醒儿，面对百度不断上涨的广告费用，很多公司犹豫不决，百度或将开始看到类似的“倒戈”会不断出现。百度本周早些时候表示，第二季度个人客户的广告费用增加逾50%，很明显，高朋网这样的一些客户对百度大幅增加广告费用的举动很不高兴，并正寻求性价比更高的途径进行广告宣传。

一句话：高朋网放弃在百度投放广告不仅反映出团购行业的激烈竞争，而且也说明百度或面临一波广告客户“倒戈”风潮。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ China Groupon Wannabes in Fund-Raising Frenzy 中国团购网站掀起融资狂潮

Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

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China Internet bellwether Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) has just announced its latest quarterly results, which continue to show a company with strong growth but a worrisome inability to diversify beyond its core online search business that is showing early signs of slowing. First the good news, which has clearly captured investor attention, with Baidu’s revenue up about 80 percent and profits up an even stronger 90 percent in the second quarter, thanks to surging sales for its online search advertising services. (company announcement) Furthermore, Baidu also forecast its third-quarter revenue will continue to grow in the 75-80 percent range to more than $600 million — second in China’s Internet space behind only sector leader Tencent (HKEx: 700). But those strong numbers also hide the less impressive fact that Baidu still derives 100 percent of its revenue from online marketing related to its core search business, after high-profile initiatives in a number of other areas like micro-blogging and e-commerce all ended in disappointing failures. (previous post) What’s more, its volume of online marketing customers only grew by a modest 17 percent in the second quarter, with its big revenue growth coming on the back of a sharp 50 percent jump in spending per customer. Clearly Baidu is finding ways to squeeze more money out of its customers, but that growth is likely to slow down sharply in the next year as advertisers start to reach their comfort limits over spending too much on a single marketing source, no matter how good the results. When that happens, look for Baidu’s top and bottom line growth to slow sharply — most likely in the next year or two — unless it can find some alternate new sources of growth from some of its other business initiatives.

Bottom line: Despite posting stellar Q2 results, Baidu’s top and bottom line growth will slow sharply in the next 1-2 years as its search business starts to mature and advertisers rein in their spending.

中国互联网巨头百度<BIDU.O>刚刚公布季度财报，显示其保持强劲增长势头，但令人担忧的是，百度仍严重依赖其核心的网上搜索业务，而该领域已呈现放缓苗头。首先，我们得说其强劲财报是个好消息，显然也吸引了投资者的关注。得益於在线搜索广告营收大幅增长，百度第二季营收增约80%，获利更跳升约90%。此外，百度预计第三季营收将保持75-80%的增幅，超过6亿美元，若实现该目标则在中国互联网领域仅次于腾讯<0700.HK>。但这些亮丽的数据掩盖了一个事实：百度所有营收都来自与核心搜索业务有关的网络营销，意味着其在微博和电子商务等领域的尝试均遇挫。值得注意的是，今年第一季其网络营销客户总数仅增加了17%，百度营收增长主要源自客户的平均支出跳增50%。显然，百度成功从客户处掏出了更多的钱，但未来一年其增长率可能大幅放缓，因广告客户将开始不愿意在单一营销渠道上投入太多的资金，不管广告效果有多好。到那时候，除非百度能找到其他新的营收和利润增长渠道，否则其营收和利润增长会急剧减速，这很可能在未来一两年就会发生。

一句话：尽管百度第二季财报抢眼，但未来一两年中其营收和利润增长可能大幅放缓，因其核心搜索业务开始趋於成熟，而广告客户将开始控制广告支出。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Flounders Abroad, Wastes Time With Microsoft Tie-Up 百度海外拓展 与微软合作纯属浪费时间

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

◙ Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

 

Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

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It’s official: Less than two months after Chinese media first carried reports of a new Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) service that I said looked suspiciously like a Facebook-type SNS product (previous post), China’s most popular Web portal has announced the public beta testing launch of the new product, called Boke Qing in Chinese, or Blogging Light. (Chinese article) Sina’s own description of the new service, which ingeniously allows users to interlink new accounts with their existing accounts on its wildly popular Twitter-like Weibo product, says that Qing is designed to complement Weibo by providing users with the ability to post longer messages, as well as photos and other multimedia offerings. Does this sound a bit like Facebook? The beta site at qing.weibo.com says the service already has about 700,000 users, though I’ve no doubt that is probably a bit inflated. Still, considering Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) early success with its new SNS product, Google Plus, despite being years behind Facebook, I’d say this new Qing product, which smartly draws on Weibo’s huge user base, stands a strong chance of success and could quickly pose a major challenge to industry leaders Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin, as well as SNS products being developed by established net giants like Tencent (HKEx: 700). From a broader perspective, Qing will undoubtedly be coupled with Weibo into a single SNS business unit at Sina, which is hoping to quickly build up the company for a blockbuster IPO in the next two to three years. It’s still too early to say if Qing will be able to make big headway in the market, but I would say the chances are good that it could quickly catch up with and possibly even overtake Renren or Kaixin in the next couple of years.

Bottom line: Sina’s beta launch of a new SNS product, Qing, is the latest move to leverage its popular Weibo service, which could soon pose a challenge to SNS leaders Renren and Kaixin.

媒体一个多月前首次报导称，新浪<SINA.O>推出了轻博客，我当时说过，这项新服务看似像Facebook一类的社交网产品。新浪周一正式宣布启动轻博客公测版本。用户可使用新浪微博账户直接登录轻博客，两款产品已实现相互联通，据新浪描述称，轻博客是微博的补充，可以发布长文和组图，以及其他多媒体功能。这听起来是不是有点像Facebook？轻博客（qing.weibo.com）测试版网页称，该服务已拥有约70万名用户，我怀疑这可能有点言过其实。但鉴於谷歌<GOOG.O>在社交领域多年落後Facebook，而其新推出的社交产品Google Plus仍初获成功，我敢说，由於聪明地利用了新浪微博庞大用户群的优势，因此轻博客的成功机率很大，并且可能很快会对人人网<RENN.N>、开心网以及正研发社交产品的腾讯<0700.HK>等构成较大威胁。更宏观地看，轻博客无疑将与微博联手，成为新浪独立的社交网业务，在未来两到三年进行大规模首次公开募股（IPO）。现在谈轻博客是否能在该市场取得重大进展还为时过早，但我认为，轻博客未来一两年迅速赶上、甚至超越人人网和开心网的机率较大。

一句话：新浪启动最新社交产品轻博客公测版，是利用新浪微博杠杆效应的最新举措，可能很快会对人人网和开心网构成挑战。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

 

Cable Consolidation Moves Closer With New Umbrella Company 中国广播电视网络公司有望近期挂牌 有线网络整合步伐加快

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My initial skepticism about China’s plans to consolidate its fragmented cable TV sector is rapidly fading, with local media now reporting the company created to consolidate the industry is set for official launch in July or August as the consolidation drive gains momentum. (Chinese article) The report cites an unnamed source discussing the official launch of the company, China Broadcasting Network Co, and adds that 19 provinces, or nearly two-thirds of the country, have consolidated their cable networks since the program began. It adds that China’s entire broadcasting industry now has revenue equal to about half that of the nation’s largest telco, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). If those numbers are correct that would give the industry annual revenue of more than $30 billion, which would be enough to create an impressive new entity if I could capture even a fraction of that sum. Even if the numbers are exaggerated, which I’m sure they are, the consolidation effort seems to be gaining some serious momentum and I’d say its chances for success must now be close to 90 percent. There’s no mention in the report of the potential for a future listing of such a new company, which would presumably be planned for the next 1-2 years. I would expect it to join the country’s other three major telcos with a listing in Hong Kong and probably a simultaneous listing in Shanghai. Such a company could be an interesting investment choice, requiring huge amounts of money over the short term to upgrade a national network of aging analog cable systems but providing big potential rewards once the system is updated by offering a wider array of channels as well as video on demand (VOD) and Internet services. The company’s success could also provide a huge boost for programming makers, both domestic and international, which are already seeing more business from China’s budding online video sector led by demand from the likes of Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Tudou and Tencent (HKEx: 700). (previous post)

Bottom line: The imminent formation of China’s new national cable TV operator is the latest sign of Beijing’s determination to consolidate the sector, pushing the chances for success of the campaign to 90 percent.

对中国打算整合有线电视业的计划我最初持怀疑态度，但这种疑虑如今在迅速消退。最近我看到有当地媒体报导，一家旨在促进有线网络整合的公司有望7月或者8月正式挂牌。报导援引消息人士的话称中国广播电视网络公司近期将正式挂牌，报导还称，中国已有至少19个省完成“一省一网”。报导亦表示，中国广电业2010年总收入约为中国最大电信公司中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>年营收的一半。如果这些数字是正确的，那麽这意味着该行业年收入超过300亿美元，即使有所夸大，有线网络整合似乎正获得一些前进势头，我预计现在其成功机率近90%。报导没有透露这家公司是否会在未来上市，但我估计上市也就是一两年的事，它可能也会和其他三家大型电信公司一样，在香港上市，可能还会同时在上海上市。这样的公司是个有趣的投资对象，而这家公司要在短时间内将全国的老化有线网络升级，是需要巨大资金的。但一旦系统升级完毕，得以提供更多频道、视频点播等服务，这家公司有望带来巨大回报。中国的网络视频行业正蓬勃发展，如业内领军者优酷<YOKU.N>、土豆和腾讯<0700.HK>等需求旺盛，因此这家公司的成功还会有利於国内外的节目制作方。

一句话：中国广播电视网络公司即将挂牌表明中国政府决心促进有线网络整合，令该行业整合成功机率提高至90%。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Sale Exposes Sputtering China Digital Revolution 上海文广股权低售凸显中国数字改革路漫漫

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Cable Consolidation Crosses Provincial Lines 中国广电行业跨省并购案