Tag Archives: telecoms

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), under new leadership as long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou gets set to retire, is showing signs of new life on several fronts, including some of its best earnings in quite a while. The company reported its second-quarter profit rose 7 percent — a figure that might look boring by anyone else’s standards but marks a sharp improvement for a company that has reported low single-digit growth and even one decline for most of the past three years. (English article) The company credited the growth to revenue from stronger data services traffic, an area that China Mobile had neglected in the last two years after failing to win a 3G license based on globally developed technology and instead being forced to use a homegrown standard. After those two years of denial, China Mobile seems to finally be not only facing its less-than-ideal 3G reality but also embracing it, pushing hard for a deal to develop and offer a version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone based on its homegrown 3G standard. After welcoming Apple’s COO Tim Cook to its Beijing headquarters in June as part of those talks (previous post), China Mobile disclosed last week that none other than Apple chief Steve Jobs himself has joined the negotiations, indicating a deal is likely in the next 1-2 months and the company could offer its own 3G iPhones by the end of the year. Wang is also keeping up China Mobile’s pressure on the telecoms regulator to issue 4G licenses sooner rather than later, saying the company’s 4G trial networks in 6 major Chinese cities could be ready for commercialization by next year. (Chinese article) The commercial launch of such 4G service, which uses more reliable technology than China Mobile’s 3G network, would bring even more momentum back to China Mobile at the expense of smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), and if all goes according to plan I could easily see China Mobile returning to double-digit profit growth as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile is rapidly regaining  momentum under its new leadership, and could easily return to double-digit profit growth by the end of this year.

中国移动(0941.HK)董事长王建宙即将退休，在新领导层带领下，中移动在各方面显露出新成长迹象，包括近期财报表现出色。中移动财报显示，其第二季度利润同比增长约7%，这在其它公司看来或许表现平平，但过去三年中多数时候，中移动一直以个位数低幅增长，甚至出现一次亏损，因此这一增幅标志着其经营状况大幅改观。中移动将此归功于数据服务流量增加，中移动在两年前的3G牌照颁发中仅取得中国自主研发的TD-SCDMA标准後，一直未对数据服务领域给予重视。两年之後，中移动似乎终于面对并接受其差强人意的3G现实并积极应对，正努力争取达成协议，提供基于TD-SCDMA标准的苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone。苹果首席运营官库克（Tim Cook）6月到访中移动北京总部谈判，中移动上周披露，苹果首席执行官乔布斯亲自参与谈判，表明协议或在1-2个月内完成，中移动年底前或推出TD-SCDMA版3G iPhone。王建宙还将继续敦促工信部尽早发放4G牌照，称中移动在六大城市的TD-LTE试点网络预计明年可以实现商用。由于中国移动的4G技术比现有的3G技术可靠，服务商用化启动，4G的商用将对中移动更为有利，但代价是牺牲中国联通(0762.HK, CHU.N)和中国电信(0728.HK, CHA.N)等规模较小的竞争对手，如果一切依中移动的计划推进，我认为，中移动在年底前将轻而易举地恢复利润两位数增长。

一句话：中国移动在新管理层带领下，将迅速夺回市场份额，年底前将轻而易举重返利润两位数增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

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After years of stagnanation under charismatic but otherwise uninspired longtime Chairman Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) seems to finally be regaining some of its long-lost excitement with buzz of Wang’s imminent departure and the signing of a new deal to sell Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone. In the latest development on the Apple front, Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile’s Beijing subsidiary has quietly added the iPhone 4 to the list of models it will support for international roaming plans. (Chinese article) While use of unauthorized iPhones on China Mobile’s 2G network has been common ever since the iPhone first debuted, this official support for Apple could indicate that China Mobile may be very close to striking a deal to offer official iPhone service that can run on its 3G network using homegrown Chinese technology. The company announced last year it was in such talks with Apple, and a low-key visit to its headquarters in June by Apple COO Tim Cook fueled speculation that a deal could be near. (previous post) The talk alone has helped China Mobile’s languishing stock to regain some of the momentum it has lost over the last few years to more nimble rivals China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), which also have the advantage of using better technology in their 3G networks. Adding to the growing excitement around China Mobile’s “rebirth”, Chinese media are reporting that Xi Guohua, who recently took over the role of secretary of China Mobile’s state-run parent from Wang Jianzhou (previous post), has now assumed the title of vice chairman at the listed company as well. (Chinese article) Xi’s rapid rise, coupled with last year’s elevation of another up-and-comer, Li Yue, to president of the listed China Mobile, seem to indicate that Wang’s departure from the company could be imminent, bringing in much-needed new blood and fresh ideas to the top of this cash-rich but otherwise stagnant telecoms giant.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s imminent arrival of top new leadership and an iPhone deal will breath new life into the company’s business and also its stock, following years of stagnation.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在经历了多年发展迟滞後似乎终於将出现一些可喜的变化，有传言称，王建宙即将离任，且中移动将与苹果<AAPL.O>签署销售iPhone手机的协议。关於中移动与苹果的最新合作进展，据中国媒体报导，北京移动悄然将iPhone 4列入了促销活动范围。尽管自iPhone上市以来，在中移动2G网络上使用未被授权的iPhone手机相当普遍，但这种对苹果手机的正式支持或许意味着，中移动与苹果可能接近达成协议，在其3G网络上提供iPhone服务。中移动去年曾宣布，公司正与苹果公司就相关合作进行谈判，而苹果首席运营官库克(Tim Cook)6月份低调访问中移动总部的消息也加剧了这一传闻。仅传言本身就帮助中移动疲软的股价重获动力，中移动在过去几年的增长势头不及中国联通< 0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>。另外，据中国媒体报导，刚接任中移动母公司党组书记不久的奚国华已被任命为中移动上市公司副董事长。奚国华的快速晋升以及去年升任中移动上市公司总裁李跃的提升似乎说明，王建宙可能即将离任，这将为中移动高层带来亟需的新鲜血液和想法。

一句话：经过数年的发展迟滞後，中移动即将出现的高层变动以及与苹果的协议将为该公司业务和股价带来新的活力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

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The relentless drive by telecoms equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) to break into the US continues, with the pair taking decidedly different approaches in their quest to be first to make big bucks in the world’s most lucrative telecoms market. First ZTE. While everyone has focused on ZTE’s frustrations in the US selling networking equipment, most notably its failure to win a big contract earlier this year from Sprint (NYSE: S) (previous post), the company has quietly become a major force in the much lower profile but still quite lucrative US cellphone market selling its low-cost smartphones. One of my company sources tells me that ZTE is currently on track to sell $600 million worth of cellphones in the US this year, or double its volume from 2010, as it focuses on a product where it has done well and, equally important, which is far less sensitive than networking equipment that tends to raise security concerns. While $600 million isn’t huge for a company like ZTE, it’s still around 6 percent of the company’s forecast revenue for this year, which is still significant and could easily become more so if it can continue the strong growth with its low-cost smartphones. For Huawei, Chinese media are reporting the company has hired John Suffolk, former chief information officer of the British government, as the company’s new global cyber security officer. (English article) This move looks quite brilliant, as Huawei clearly has landed someone with strong Western government connections and telecoms security background to play a dual role in not only advising it on how to make its equipment more secure against cyber attacks, but also to ease government concerns in the US and Western Europe that Huawei’s equipment might somehow pose a risk of spying by the Chinese government. Huawei’s step is only the latest in a long series of moves aimed at solidifying its long-term position in the global telecoms market, and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised  to see it not only score its first big US sale in the next year, but also to take over the spot as the world’s top mobile networking equipment maker from Sweden’s Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) in that time frame.

Bottom line: ZTE could broach the $1 billion sales mark in the US next year through its fast-growing cellphone business, while Huawei’s latest hire should help it enter the US in the next year.

中国两大电信设备提供商–中兴通讯<00063. SZ><0763.HK>与华为<HWT.UL>继续努力打入美国市场，但是策略迥异。先说中兴通讯。当人人还都在念着中兴通讯向美国市场出售网络设备上的挫折，特别是今年稍早未能赢得Sprint<S.N>一项巨大合约时，这家公司已经悄悄成为了美国手机市场的一支重要力量，在这里销售其平价的智能手机。一名公司消息人士告诉我，中兴正推动今年在美国手机销售达6亿美元，较2010年翻番。中兴在手机领域表现不错，而且这块市场不像电信设备那麽敏感。6亿美元对中兴不算太大，但仍然占到了公司今年财测的6%左右，这相当不错，而且如果其低成本智能手机销售强劲势头继续，那麽中兴手机业务将会占据更重要的分量。再说华为。据中国媒体报导，华为已聘请英国政府前首席信息官约翰•萨福克（John Suffolk）担任全球网络安全官。此举看起来非常聪明。华为显然是请到了既有很强西方政府关系、又有电信安全背景的人来发挥双重作用：萨福克不仅可以建议华为面对网络袭击如何增强设备的安全性，还可缓解美国与西欧等政府的安全忧虑。华为意欲巩固其在全球电信市场的长期地位，此举只是一系列朝向这个目标的举措之一。以目前的速度来看，华为如果明年锁定首笔在美的重大销售交易、且超过爱立信<ERICb.ST><ERICb.ST>成全球头号移动网络设备制造商，我不会感到意外。

一句话：明年，中兴通讯借助手机业务的快速增长，明年有可能在美国市场的销售突破10亿美元大关。而华为此次招贤则应会帮助它明年踏入美国市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

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After saying on several occasions earlier this year that 4G licenses won’t be issued for at least the next 2-3 years, China’s telecoms regulator is subtly shifting its message, no doubt under heavy pressure from China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which would like to see such licenses issued sooner rather than later. Chinese media are now quoting an official from the regulator at an event this week saying that 4G licenses will be awarded when the technology is “mature.” (Chinese article) He then goes on to say how China Mobile has launched expanded trials for its 4G standard, TD-LTE, in six major cities, and that results so far have been promising. I sense a definite shift in this quote from the ministry’s previous stance, in which it indicated it wanted to wait for new 3G systems launched two years ago by the country’s 3 telcos, China Mobile, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), to gain traction before awarding 4G licenses. Industry watchers will know that China Mobile has been rapidly losing share in the 3G market after being forced to use a homegrown wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, that lacks maturity and a wide range of smartphones to make it attractive to most consumers. It has been lobbying hard for the regulator to let it roll out a 4G system, based on more widely used technology, and these latest comments seem to indicate the regulator might issue a 4G license to China Mobile first if it feels TD-LTE is ready for commercialization. If that happens, I could see China Mobile receiving a 4G license in as little as a year from now, which could provide a boon to telecoms equipment makers like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), and could help China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: A subtle shift in comments from the telecoms regulator indicate a softening stance toward the issuance of 4G licenses, paving the way for China Mobile to get one such license in as little as a year.

今年早些时候，中国电信监管部门多次表示，至少在未来2-3年内不会发放4G牌照，但现在其口风出现微妙的变化，无疑是受到中国移动<0941.HK>的压力。该公司希望能早点发放4G牌照。  中国媒体援引监管部门一官员在本周一次活动上的话报导称，4G牌照何时发放取决於技术的成熟度。接着他还介绍了在中国六大城市开展的TD-LTE规模试验，并表示测试效果良好。我从这名官员的发言中察觉到工信部立场与此前相比发生了变化。之前工信部曾表示，希望中国三大移动运营商中国移动、中国联通<CHU.N>和中国电信<CHA.N>推出的3G网络强化後再发放4G牌照。业内观察者将会注意到，因使用中国自己的TD-SCDMA无线网络标准，中移动在中国3G市场的份额正迅速流失。中国移动一直在努力游说工信部，允许其推出4G系统，工信部官员近期言论似乎暗示，如果该部觉得TD-LTE商业化时机成熟，或会首先向中国移动发放4G牌照。如果是这种情况，我认为，中国移动最短在一年内就可拿到4G牌照，这对爱立信<ERICb.ST>、华为、中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>和阿尔卡特-朗讯（Alcatel-Lucent）<ALUA.PA>等电信设备制造商将是利好，并可能有助於中国移动夺回中国联通和中国电信抢走的部分市场份额。

一句话：工信部官员口风的微妙转变暗示，该部在4G牌照发放问题上的立场软化，中国移动有望最短在一年内获得4G牌照。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动