Tag Archives: Motorola

Motorola in China latest Business & Financial news from Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese High Tech Market, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters)

News Digest: August 18-20, 2012 报摘： 2012年8月18-20日

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 18-20. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.
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  • Motorola Cuts 1,400 Hundred China Jobs, Workers Protest Layoffs (Chinese article)
  • Jingdong Mall May Call Ceasefire in 3C E-Commerce Price War (English article)
  • Qihoo’s (NYSE: QIHU) Zhou Hongyi Makes Low-Key Entry to Online Search (Chinese article)
  • Starcastle to Open Its First Senior Living Community in Shanghai (Businesswire)

Huawei Set For Europe Smartphone Blitz 华为智能手机全球营销首选欧洲

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Telecoms equipment giant Huawei may be a familiar name to industry insiders, but as a consumer brand it has a long way to go as it tries to develop its consumer-oriented smartphone business. In pursuit of that aim, the company is gearing up for a massive marketing blitz that looks set to target the lucrative European market first, to be followed perhaps by an eventual try at the more difficult US market. The choice of Europe for its first global smartphone offensive looks smart, mirroring a similar path for the rise to prominence of Huawei’s core networking equipment business staring in the mid 2000s.

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China Approves Google’s Motorola Buy 中国批准谷歌收购摩托罗拉

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I have to admit that perhaps I was wrong in my initial skepticism about Beijing’s motivations in repeatedly delaying approval for Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) purchase of Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), speculating that its foot-dragging might have been motivated by political factors. (previous post) But now that the anti-monopoly regulator has finally approved the deal, I feel like I should actually congratulate it for addressing an important concern that was probably the real source of the delays, namely the potential that Google might give Motorola phones preferential treatment for its Android smartphone operating system at the expense of other major handset makers who also rely heavily on the popular OS. The long-awaited approval, which was delaying closure of a $12.5 billion deal first announced last August, finally came after Google agreed to conditions required by the Chinese regulator aimed at making sure that Android remains open and free to everyone, and that Google treats all cellphone makers who chose to use the operating system equally. (English article) I’ll be the first to admit that my first reaction to most actions by China’s anti-monopoly regulator is one of skepticism, since it has a history of allowing political considerations into its decisions that are largely unrelated to its main mission of ensuring that major M&A deals don’t harm market competition. The regulator’s bias was on glaring display in 2009, when it vetoed Coca Cola’s (NYSE: KU) plan to buy leading domestic juice maker Huiyuan (HKEx: 1886), citing monopolistic concerns even though most observers believed that Beijing simply didn’t want to see the promising domestic brand swallowed up by a foreign company. The regulator seemed to be changing its ways last year when it approved the purchase of another promising Chinese brand by a foreign name, in this case allowing Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM), operator of the KFC and Pizza Hut chains, to buy Little Sheep, operator of China’s largest hot pot restaurant chain. (previous post) The delays behind this latest approval of Google’s purchase of Motorola look like a smart move to me, aimed at addressing the very real concern by many of Android’s users that they might lose access to the OS if Google gives preferential treatment to Motorola. The major regulators in the US and Europe were unlikely to focus on this particular concern, since most of the major cellphone makers that use Android are based in Asia, such as Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). A growing number of Android users are also in China, most notably Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), which are 2 of the world’s fastest growing players in the smartphone space. Thus the regulator was clearly addressing very real concerns from these and other domestic smartphone makers about becoming second-class Android citizens after a Google-Motorola merger, hence the regulator’s decision to impose its conditions. At the end of the day I’m quite encouraged by this action, and increasingly confident that we’ll see more decisions from the regulator based on market concerns rather than political considerations.

Bottom line: China’s long-delayed approval of Google’s Motorola purchase was due to real anti-competitive concerns, and reflects growing maturity at the Chinese regulator.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei-Motorola Rumors Look Logical 华为收购摩托罗拉手机业务传言看似合情合理

◙ Google Tussles With China on Motorola 延迟批准摩托罗拉移动交易 中国政府对谷歌仍心存芥蒂

◙ Little Sheep Gets Swallowed: Good for Yum, Good for China M&A 小肥羊被收购对百胜和中国是双赢

News Digest: April 13, 2012 报摘： 2012年4月13日

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 12. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to Sell Motorola Handset Business to Huawei – Report (English article)

◙ NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) Accuses Tencent (HKEx: 700) of Copying News (Chinese article)

◙ 360Buy Launches Online Real Estate Business (English article)

◙ Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) Launches Reseller Program for the EMEA Region (PRNewswire)

◙ Wal-mart (NYSE: WMT) International Focusing on Existing Markets (English article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Google Tussles With China on Motorola 延迟批准摩托罗拉移动交易 中国政府对谷歌仍心存芥蒂

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Leaders in Beijing seem to be holding a long grudge against Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), following its high-profile withdrawal from the China market in 2010 after a dispute over self-censorship policies. That’s the only conclusion I can draw from the latest news in this stormy relationship, which has seen China emerge as the lone major country that has yet to approve Google’s pending purchase of Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), the faded giant that was once the world’s second largest cellphone maker. All major governments have approved the deal announced last August, in what looks to me like an easy call for most anti-monopoly regulators as Google doesn’t make cellphones and Motorola Mobility is now just a relatively small player in the competitive space anyhow. But for some reason, China’s anti-monopoly regulator has not only failed to approve the deal more than half a year after it was first announced, but has actually said it will need extra time to make a decision. (Chinese article) Exactly why the Chinese regulator needs so much time to make what should be a relatively easy decision is hard for me to determine, which is why I can only guess that Beijing still harbors some bad feelings towards Google. Readers will recall that Google made global headlines in 2010 with its departure from China, which cast a spotlight on the self-policing that all web sites are forced to do under Chinese law to eliminate sensitive content from their sites, creating lots of negative global publicity for Beijing. Since then, China has dragged its feet in a number of decisions relating to Google. First it delayed before finally approving a renewal of the registration for Google’s China Internet domain, Google.cn; and more recently it has sparred with Google over the licensing of its mapping service in China, which is reportedly still awaiting final approval. (previous post) I previously said I thought Beijing and Google had moved past their bad feelings from the 2010 dispute, but perhaps some conflict still remains. Still, I do believe that both sides realize they need each other and can’t really afford  to fight too much, as Google’s Android is now the world’s most popular smartphone operating system and China is the world’s largest mobile market. There’s also an interesting side element to this story which may not even be Google-related, in that Motorola’s sale of its networking equipment business last year to Nokia Siemens Networks also ran into repeated unexplained delays in approval from China last year. Then the deal was suddenly approved after an unrelated patent dispute between Motorola and Huawei was settled, leading some, myself included, to suspect the 2 actions were related. (previous post) It’s hard to say if there might be a similar related element this time as none is apparent; but hopefully China has learned by now that its approval of major global M&A shouldn’t be tied to unrelated matters.

Bottom line: China’s delays in approving Google’s purchase of Motorola Mobility point to lingering distrust by Beijing towards Google.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google: Getting Mapped Out of China? 谷歌地图：会退出中国市场吗？

◙ Google Map Impasse Resolved With New JV 谷歌地图风波解决

◙ Troublesome Timing As China Approves NSN-Motorola 中国监管部门批准诺基亚西门子购买摩托罗拉网络业务时机不佳

Huawei and ZTE: Swapping Networking for Cellphones? 华为和中兴：转型进军手机市场？

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Telecoms superstars Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) continue to send out new signals underscoring how serious they are about developing their cellphone business, as both realize that growth potential could be severely limited for their traditional networking equipment business. In yet the latest signal coming from Huawei, the company is bragging that it shipped some 20 million smartphones last year, up 5-fold over the previous year. (Chinese article) That figure was enough to propel Huawei to the world’s sixth largest cellphone seller in 2011, with total cellphone sales jumping 40 percent to $6.8 billion. Of course that is still just a small part of the company’s overall sales, which are now in the $30 billion range. But Huawei clearly has big plans in the cellphone space, saying late last year it aims to become one of the world’s top 3 brands in the next 5 years. (previous post) Crosstown rival ZTE has made similar moves into the cellphone space, and has become particularly aggressive into low-end smartphone by making Android-based models that retail for less than $100. ZTE has also previously said it aims to become one of the world’s top 5 cellphone makers within the next 2 years, meaning that both of these Chinese companies could finding themselves increasingly fighting for the same customers on the global stage. The drive into cellphones, while risky and more competitive than traditional telecoms networking equipment, looks like a smart move for both companies, which increasingly realize that their traditional business is a difficult one with limited growth potential. Most of the world’s major telecoms equipment players are now struggling or have left the business outright, with names like Motorola and Nortel that were dominant players just a decade ago now non-existent. The few remaining names, including Nokia Siemens Networks and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALUA) have also struggled to remain profitable, with both making recent layoffs. Even Huawei itself reportedly recently delayed plans for a new factory in the important India market, where new network construction has virtually come to a halt amid a major government corruption scandal. (previous post) The networking equipment business is also notoriously cyclical, unlike cellphones that experience relatively constant demand. With all those factors in play, it’s not surprising to see both Huawei and ZTE looking to cellphones for stability, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of these 2 companies become one of the world’s top 3 brands in the next 3-5 years.

Bottom line: Huawei and ZTE are pursuing cellphones in response to higher risk and slowing growth in their networking business, with at least one likely to become a top global player in the space.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei Discovers Cellphones 华为手机要向世界前三进军

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

◙ Huawei Puts Brakes on India Drive 华为印度建厂计划推迟

Huawei Discovers Cellphones 华为手机要向世界前三进军

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Huawei Technologies, one of China’s most successful exporters but also one of its most frustrated, is following in the footsteps of crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063) in discovering cellphones, a far less controversial product than its traditional networking equipment business. The move looks like a smart one for Huawei, even if the company is a little late coming to this product area, with many interesting implications. Chinese media are quoting an executive saying Huawei is aiming to become one of the world’s top 3 cellphone makers within the next 5 years — a big order for a company that is currently just a minor player but certainly not impossible for one with Huawei’s vast resources. (Chinese article) Equally significant was where the executive made his remarks, namely at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) last week in Las Vegas, the world’s largest consumer electronics show that Huawei was attending for the first time. The new push will add an interesting new competitor to the market, posing a challenge not only for domestic rivals like ZTE and Lenovo (HKEx: 992), but also for foreign companies like Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) and even faded global leader Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V). Huawei is no doubt finally realizing that cellphones are far less sensitive as a product than its core telecoms equipment business, which is showing signs of quickly slowing amid resistance in western markets like the US, where security is a concern (previous post), and even in India, where a corruption scandal has brought the industry to a standstill. (previous post) As a product area, cellphones are also far less cyclical than traditional networking equipment, whose sales tend to spike when new technologies like 4G or wi-fi come out, but then subside afterwards. Lastly and perhaps most interesting, the development of a strong cellphone business could provide Huawei with an opportunity for something that’s been talked about for years but has never happened, namely a Huawei IPO. Huawei tried to sell of its cellphone business several years ago but failed after it didn’t get the price it wanted. But that business was very small at the time, making it not very attractive to outside buyers. If it was one of the world’s top 3 players, on the other hand, it would certainly become a much more attractive candidate for an international IPO, finally giving investors a chance to buy into this interesting buy controversial company.

Bottom line: Huawei’s new drive into cellphones could create a major new global player in a short time, with a potential IPO for the unit in the next 5 years if the drive is successful.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei Puts Brakes on India Drive 华为印度建厂计划推迟

◙ US China Bashing Hits New High With Telecoms Probe 华为中兴应巧选时机应对调查

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

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New signals coming from Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Taiwan smartphone maker HTC (Taipei: 2498) indicate that both are strongly considering bids in the upcoming auction of Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) PC business, which also happens to include its much smaller smartphone unit. But whereas HTC’s potential bid looks smart, Lenovo’s apparent position needs some serious rethinking. Let’s start with the simpler case of HTC, whose early bet on smartphones has made it an overnight sensation, propelling it past a struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) earlier this year in terms of market value. (previous post) New comments from HTC’s chairman indicate the company may try to acquire its own smartphone operating system (OS), following Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) recent plan to buy Motorola’s (NYSE: MMI) cellphone business which has upset companies like HTC that use Google’s Android OS. (Chinese article) A very obvious candidate for HTC would be HP’s smartphone OS, which HP acquired last year when it purchased smartphone pioneer Palm. Industry watchers know that Palm’s OS is generally well regarded but has failed to gain much momentum due to lack of a strong promoter. Now let’s look at Lenovo, whose talkative Chairman Liu Chuanzhi has said he aims to become the world’s second largest PC seller by the end of this year, displacing both Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Acer (Taipei: 2353). (Chinese article) This kind of bullish comment, typical of Liu, is just the latest indication that he plans to make a bid for HP’s PC business in the near future. I previously advised that such a bid would be a bad move due to the complexity of such a deal (previous post) and I still think such a bid would be difficult for Lenovo at best, and a disaster at worst. Instead, Lenovo should also focus on HP’s smartphone business, which would be much easier to digest and has big potential to complement its existing cellphone and PC businesses. Some will remember that Lenovo previously launched a bid for Palm last year that ultimately failed, and it should seriously consider making another try as HP prepares to sell its PC and cellphone assets.

Bottom line: A bidding war could be brewing for HP’s smartphone assets following recent comments from HTC, with Lenovo possibly joining the hunt.

联想(0992.HK)和HTC(2498.TW)都发出最新信号，暗示有强烈意愿收购惠普(HPQ.N)将拍卖的个人电脑业务。惠普拟出售的资产碰巧也包括规模较小的智能手机业务。HTC的收购意向似乎是明智的选择，但是联想却需要对自己的立场再认真考虑一番。让我们先看看情况较简单的HTC。此前HTC押注智能手机曾经轰动一时，促使其市值今年稍早超越深陷挣扎的诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)。HTC董事长最近的讲话暗示，该公司可能尝试通过收购拥有自己的智能手机操作系统。此前谷歌(GOOG.O)宣布计划收购摩托罗拉的手机业务，令HTC等使用谷歌安卓系统的公司感到不安。惠普去年收购Palm从而获得自己的智能手机操作系统，这对HTC明显是个不错的选择。行业观察人士都知道，Palm的操作系统获得较高认可，但因缺乏强劲的推动者，没有获得太多成长势头。接下来再看看联想。联想集团董事局主席柳传志曾表示，打算今年年底前成为全球第二大个人电脑销售商，战胜戴尔(DELL.O)和宏基(2353.TW)。此番言论暗示，他计划在近期竞购惠普的个人电脑业务。我此前曾说过，出于对交易复杂性的考虑，我认为这个收购计划对联想不是个好主意。我仍然认为，从好的方面来说这宗交易对联想很困难，最坏结果则是一场灾难。相反，联想应该聚焦惠普的智能手机业务，这更容易消化吸收，也更有可能对其现有的手机和个人电脑业务构成补充。有人会记得联想去年曾发起对Palm的收购，最终以失败告终。在这次惠普出售个人电脑和手机资产的当口，联想对作出再次尝试应该三思而後行。

一句话：HTC高管最近讲话之後，针对惠普手机资产的一场竞购战可能正在酝酿之中，联想可能参加竞购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

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I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

 

China Car Brands Look Like One-Hit Wonders

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It’s Monday morning, which means there’s not too much news in the market yet and instead it’s a good time for one of my period looks at the broader auto industry. A wide array of new data is out on July sales, which show the continuing decline of China’s top 3 independent auto brands, BYD (HKEx: 1211), Chery and Geely (HKEx: 165). BYD’s top-selling model, the F3, continued its plunge in July, with sales down 41 percent from a year earlier. Sales for Chery’s top model, the QQ, grew just 0.9 percent, lagging the broader market and causing it to lose share. Geely doesn’t have a model in the top 20, but its overall sales fell 6.3 percent in July, a month when overall passenger vehicle sales rose 12 percent. The stumbling of these top 3 domestic brands bears a striking resemblance to a similar trend from six or seven years ago, when domestic cellphone makers like TCL (HKEx: 2618) and Ningbo Bird suddenly emerged to challenge the then-dominant positions of market leaders Nokia, Motorola and Samsung. But in that instance the domestic firms soon fell almost as quickly as they rose, never to return in most cases. The reason was relatively simple: they all soared to prominence on the strength of one or two popular models that captured the public’s interest. But then they failed to follow with more popular models in an industry where product life-cycles typically run around 2-3 years, causing them to quickly fade. The same now appears to be happening with these domestic car makers. Both BYD and Chery found quick success with the F3 and QQ, respectively, but are now struggling to develop popular new models as these successful ones near the end of their life cycles. If they fail to find other new hits soon, they could easily find themselves following in the footsteps of faded names like Ningbo Bird and TCL.

Bottom line: Domestic Chinese car brands Geely, BYD and Chery face a slow decline into irrelevance unless they can develop new models to replace their fast-fading older popular ones.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

◙ Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

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While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets.  (Chinese article) The article doesn’t provide a lot more detail, but does say the insurrection has been going on since April, and could see Nokia report sharply lower sales in the world’s largest cellphone market by subscribers when second-quarter numbers start to come out. If true, this rapid fall in fortunes for Nokia would mirror its rapid global decline. Chinese consumers, like everyone else, are always looking for the latest and coolest cellphone, and Nokia’s offerings just don’t look nearly as sleek as smartphones from Apple or Samsung. What’s more, lower end producers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are appealing to more cost-conscious consumers, offering cool, low-priced smartphones costing as little as $100 each based on Google’s Android operating system. Nokia, by comparison, can only offer phones based on its own Symbian system, which most people find uninspired and is due for retirement by the end of this year. The trend for Nokia resembles what happened several years ago in China to Motorola, whose fall from grace was also rapid and for similar reasons. If this report is true, and I think there’s a good chance it is, Nokia could easily lose its crown as the top mobile phone seller in China within the next year.

Bottom line: A rebellion by Chinese cellphone sellers against Nokia reflects the company’s broader fall from grace, and could see it lose its market-leading position in China in the next 12 months.

谷歌<GOOG.O>收购摩托罗拉移动<MMI.N>成为全球热议话题，而在中国，一份有关诺基亚<NOK.N>的报告更令人关注。诺基亚曾是中国手机市场霸主，但其市场份额正迅速被苹果<AAPL.O>和三星<005930.KS>等新秀蚕食。该报告显示，大批中国代理商拒绝进诺基亚手机，看起来很像一场对诺基亚主导国内外市场多年的反抗。文章并未提供更多细节，但称从4月起，中国各地代理商开始对诺基亚“说不”。二季度数据出炉时，诺基亚在华销量料将大幅下滑。如果情况确实如此，诺基亚盈利迅速减少，将反映其在全球市场的迅速衰落。与其他国家一样，中国消费者也总是青睐最酷的新款手机，而诺基亚手机难与苹果或三星的智能手机媲美。此外，中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>等较低端手机生产商推出时尚的Android智能手机，每款售价低至100美元，对节省开支的消费者更具吸引力。相比之下，诺基亚只有采用塞班系统的手机，许多人觉得该系统缺乏新意，预计将於今年年底前“退役”。这很像几年前摩托罗拉在华面临的困境，摩托罗拉当年也是由於类似原因，迅速走下坡路。如果这份有关诺基亚的报告属实，我认为，诺基亚很可能将在明年失去中国手机市场霸主地位。

一句话：中国大批代理商对诺基亚手机“说不”，证明诺基亚手机进一步“失宠”，或在一年内失去在华市场的主导地位。

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