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China’s Huawei, one of the world’s largest smartphone providers
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Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

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I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

 

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

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The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (English article) If true, such a development could provide not only headaches for Google and Android, but also for the growing field of Chinese smartphone makers that have relied on the free operating system to develop low-cost models favored not only in developing markets like China, but also by cost-conscious consumers in developed  markets like the US and Western Europe. Up-and-comer ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) would be most vulnerable to such a move by Apple, having staked its future on grabbing global market share with its low-cost Android based smartphones. Other companies that look vulnerable include Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose young smartphone initiative is already sputtering just a year after its launch, and ZTE rival Huawei, which is also trying to make a splash with smartphones as growth for its older telecoms equipment business starts to slow. Such a move by Apple could also hit the prospects of TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618), whose cellphone business has posted a strong comeback in the last year after taking a serious hit after it acquired money-losing assets from Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) six years ago. I actually know the Reuters reporters who wrote the Apple low-cost iPhone story, and both are quite reliable so I’m fairly confident it’s only a matter of time before low-end iPhones hit the market. If and when that happens, look for the Chinese smartphone makers to suffer big headaches as a result.

Bottom line: Apple’s launch of a low-end iPhone could further cement its dominance in the global smartphone market, at the expense of Chinese players like ZTE, Lenovo and Huawei.

当人们热议乔布斯辞去苹果(AAPL.O)首席执行官（CEO）职务时，我关注的新闻是，苹果或即将打入低端智能手机市场。苹果从不讨论其未来计划，但两名消息人士透露，苹果正在研发低端版iPhone 4，将与谷歌(GOOG.O)Android操作系统手机占据的一部分市场进行正面交锋。尽管这还只是传闻，但如果消息属实，这一研发不仅让谷歌和Android业者头痛，也会让中国智能手机制造商苦不堪言。後者依赖免费的Android操作系统，研发低成本机型，这些低端机型不仅受到中国等发展中国家青睐，在美国和西欧等发达市场，也受到节俭消费者的欢迎。苹果此举或让中兴通讯(0763.HK)(000063.SZ)最“受伤”。中兴将公司未来押宝在利用低端Android智能手机掠夺全球市场的战略上。其它容易受创的公司包括联想(0992.HK)和华为。联想启动仅一年的智能手机项目已取得不俗成效，华为则因电信设备业务增长放缓，同样试图推智能手机业务提振业绩。苹果推低端版iPhone也会对TCL通讯(2618.HK)发展造成影响，TCL通讯六年前收购阿尔卡特-朗讯(ALUA.PA)亏损的手机资产後一度严重受创，但去年该部门业绩强势反弹。我认识报导苹果可能推低端版iPhone手机消息的两位路透记者，他们的消息都很可靠，所以我很有理由相信，该款手机上市只是时间问题。如果苹果发布低端版iPhone 4，我预计将让中国智能手机商极为头痛。

一句话：苹果推出低端版iPhone，或进一步巩固其全球智能手机市场主导地位，代价则是中兴通讯、联想和华为等中国手机制造商受到冲击。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

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The relentless drive by telecoms equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) to break into the US continues, with the pair taking decidedly different approaches in their quest to be first to make big bucks in the world’s most lucrative telecoms market. First ZTE. While everyone has focused on ZTE’s frustrations in the US selling networking equipment, most notably its failure to win a big contract earlier this year from Sprint (NYSE: S) (previous post), the company has quietly become a major force in the much lower profile but still quite lucrative US cellphone market selling its low-cost smartphones. One of my company sources tells me that ZTE is currently on track to sell $600 million worth of cellphones in the US this year, or double its volume from 2010, as it focuses on a product where it has done well and, equally important, which is far less sensitive than networking equipment that tends to raise security concerns. While $600 million isn’t huge for a company like ZTE, it’s still around 6 percent of the company’s forecast revenue for this year, which is still significant and could easily become more so if it can continue the strong growth with its low-cost smartphones. For Huawei, Chinese media are reporting the company has hired John Suffolk, former chief information officer of the British government, as the company’s new global cyber security officer. (English article) This move looks quite brilliant, as Huawei clearly has landed someone with strong Western government connections and telecoms security background to play a dual role in not only advising it on how to make its equipment more secure against cyber attacks, but also to ease government concerns in the US and Western Europe that Huawei’s equipment might somehow pose a risk of spying by the Chinese government. Huawei’s step is only the latest in a long series of moves aimed at solidifying its long-term position in the global telecoms market, and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised  to see it not only score its first big US sale in the next year, but also to take over the spot as the world’s top mobile networking equipment maker from Sweden’s Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) in that time frame.

Bottom line: ZTE could broach the $1 billion sales mark in the US next year through its fast-growing cellphone business, while Huawei’s latest hire should help it enter the US in the next year.

中国两大电信设备提供商–中兴通讯<00063. SZ><0763.HK>与华为<HWT.UL>继续努力打入美国市场，但是策略迥异。先说中兴通讯。当人人还都在念着中兴通讯向美国市场出售网络设备上的挫折，特别是今年稍早未能赢得Sprint<S.N>一项巨大合约时，这家公司已经悄悄成为了美国手机市场的一支重要力量，在这里销售其平价的智能手机。一名公司消息人士告诉我，中兴正推动今年在美国手机销售达6亿美元，较2010年翻番。中兴在手机领域表现不错，而且这块市场不像电信设备那麽敏感。6亿美元对中兴不算太大，但仍然占到了公司今年财测的6%左右，这相当不错，而且如果其低成本智能手机销售强劲势头继续，那麽中兴手机业务将会占据更重要的分量。再说华为。据中国媒体报导，华为已聘请英国政府前首席信息官约翰•萨福克（John Suffolk）担任全球网络安全官。此举看起来非常聪明。华为显然是请到了既有很强西方政府关系、又有电信安全背景的人来发挥双重作用：萨福克不仅可以建议华为面对网络袭击如何增强设备的安全性，还可缓解美国与西欧等政府的安全忧虑。华为意欲巩固其在全球电信市场的长期地位，此举只是一系列朝向这个目标的举措之一。以目前的速度来看，华为如果明年锁定首笔在美的重大销售交易、且超过爱立信<ERICb.ST><ERICb.ST>成全球头号移动网络设备制造商，我不会感到意外。

一句话：明年，中兴通讯借助手机业务的快速增长，明年有可能在美国市场的销售突破10亿美元大关。而华为此次招贤则应会帮助它明年踏入美国市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

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After saying on several occasions earlier this year that 4G licenses won’t be issued for at least the next 2-3 years, China’s telecoms regulator is subtly shifting its message, no doubt under heavy pressure from China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which would like to see such licenses issued sooner rather than later. Chinese media are now quoting an official from the regulator at an event this week saying that 4G licenses will be awarded when the technology is “mature.” (Chinese article) He then goes on to say how China Mobile has launched expanded trials for its 4G standard, TD-LTE, in six major cities, and that results so far have been promising. I sense a definite shift in this quote from the ministry’s previous stance, in which it indicated it wanted to wait for new 3G systems launched two years ago by the country’s 3 telcos, China Mobile, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), to gain traction before awarding 4G licenses. Industry watchers will know that China Mobile has been rapidly losing share in the 3G market after being forced to use a homegrown wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, that lacks maturity and a wide range of smartphones to make it attractive to most consumers. It has been lobbying hard for the regulator to let it roll out a 4G system, based on more widely used technology, and these latest comments seem to indicate the regulator might issue a 4G license to China Mobile first if it feels TD-LTE is ready for commercialization. If that happens, I could see China Mobile receiving a 4G license in as little as a year from now, which could provide a boon to telecoms equipment makers like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), and could help China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: A subtle shift in comments from the telecoms regulator indicate a softening stance toward the issuance of 4G licenses, paving the way for China Mobile to get one such license in as little as a year.

今年早些时候，中国电信监管部门多次表示，至少在未来2-3年内不会发放4G牌照，但现在其口风出现微妙的变化，无疑是受到中国移动<0941.HK>的压力。该公司希望能早点发放4G牌照。  中国媒体援引监管部门一官员在本周一次活动上的话报导称，4G牌照何时发放取决於技术的成熟度。接着他还介绍了在中国六大城市开展的TD-LTE规模试验，并表示测试效果良好。我从这名官员的发言中察觉到工信部立场与此前相比发生了变化。之前工信部曾表示，希望中国三大移动运营商中国移动、中国联通<CHU.N>和中国电信<CHA.N>推出的3G网络强化後再发放4G牌照。业内观察者将会注意到，因使用中国自己的TD-SCDMA无线网络标准，中移动在中国3G市场的份额正迅速流失。中国移动一直在努力游说工信部，允许其推出4G系统，工信部官员近期言论似乎暗示，如果该部觉得TD-LTE商业化时机成熟，或会首先向中国移动发放4G牌照。如果是这种情况，我认为，中国移动最短在一年内就可拿到4G牌照，这对爱立信<ERICb.ST>、华为、中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>和阿尔卡特-朗讯（Alcatel-Lucent）<ALUA.PA>等电信设备制造商将是利好，并可能有助於中国移动夺回中国联通和中国电信抢走的部分市场份额。

一句话：工信部官员口风的微妙转变暗示，该部在4G牌照发放问题上的立场软化，中国移动有望最短在一年内获得4G牌照。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动