Tag Archives: GM

Foreign Spending Spree Augers Woes for China Car Makers 外国车企大举投资中国 本土车企倍感压力

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Despite facing a sharp slowdown in the domestic auto market, foreign car makers are showing no signs of slowing down their investment in China — a trend that looks worrisome for big domestic names that are no doubt being forced to curb spending. In the latest development on that front, Chinese media are reporting that Germany’s Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG), China’s largest auto brand with 13 percent of the market, has decided to boost its already sizable investment plan for China, now aiming to spend $19 billion from 2012 to 2016 from a previous target of $14.3 billion from 2011 to 2015. (English article) That expanded mega-investment plan comes as Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) have also earmarked major new dollars to boost their China investments, including recent symbolic commitments by both companies to boost their electric car development in the country. (previous post; Ford article) These kind of sharp spending increases during a downcycle reflect not only the longer-term vision that the foreign auto giants hold out for China, but also simply the fact that they have much better financial resources than their Chinese counterparts and realize that competition will only become more fierce as the market slows. By comparison, Chinese car makers are more likely to rein in their spending during the downturn, causing them to fall further and further behind their foreign rivals that already enjoy an edge in terms of consumer perceptions and product quality. All this bodes poorly for domestic firms like BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), Chery, Geely (HKEx: 165) and BAIC, which have already seen their sales drop sharply and could see their position erode further amid aggressive foreign spending. I wouldn’t expect to see any of these car makers fail, as all enjoy strong support from local governments; but that said, look for their market share to fall sharply in the next 2 years until many become insignificant players in their own home market.

Bottom line: Aggressive spending by foreign car makers like VW and GM in China will cause domestic players to lose considerable market share during the current downturn.

尽管国内汽车市场大幅放缓，但外国汽车厂商却未显露出放缓对华投资的迹象，这一趋势似乎让很多不得不削减开支的国内大车企忧心不已。中国媒体近日报导称，德国大众汽车<VOWG_p.DE>决定加大对华投资，计划在2012-2016期间向中国投资190亿美元。该公司原计划在2011-2015年期间向中国投资143亿美元。大众汽车在中国拥有13%的市场份额。福特汽车<FN>和通用汽车<GM.N>也计划增加对华投资，近期两公司承诺将在华推进电动车开发。这种在市场低迷期间大幅增加投资的举动不仅反映出外国汽车巨头对中国市场持有的一种长远眼光，也反映出他们拥有优於中国车企的金融资源，且意识到当市场放缓时，竞争只会变得愈发激烈。与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国汽车厂商在经济低迷期间更可能会控制开支，造成他们更加落後于外国竞争对手。外国汽车厂商在消费者认可度和产品质量方面优於国内汽车厂商。所有这些对比亚迪<1211.HK><002594.SZ>、奇瑞汽车、吉利汽车<0175.HK>、北汽控股(BAIC)等国内企业都不是好消息。上述国内汽车厂商的销量已大幅下滑，面对外国车企的大举投资，其市场份额可能进一步受损。我不认为当中的任何一家企业会破产，因为这些企业都受到地方政府的大力支持，但我要说，他们的市场份额料将会在未来两年内大幅下滑，最终很多车企在国内市场中将无足轻重。

一句话：大众和通用汽车等外国汽车厂商大举投资中国将使国内汽车厂商的市场份额在目前低迷的环境中大幅下滑。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Two Generals Team Up in Latest EV Drive

◙ China Carmakers Lose a BRIC in Export Drive 中国汽车厂商的出口机会将逐步缩窄

◙ Message to Saab: Don’t Count on China 萨博不应指望中国注资

Two Generals Team Up in Latest EV Drive

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There’s been a flurry of news on the electric vehicle (EV) front these last 2 days, as China enlists US heavyweights General Motors (NYSE: GM) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) to try and jumpstart the country’s sputtering drive to environmentally friendly cars. But despite the hype, the two latest initiatives look largely symbolic to me, and it’s hard to tell if either will have much impact. One deal will see GM and Chinese partner SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) step up their EV development, with GM making vague promises to transfer more of its cutting-edge EV technology to China as it prepares to import its state-of-the-art Chevy Volt on a trial basis. (English article) The second deal will see the two Generals, GM and GE, install charging stations in Shanghai on a very limited basis at GM’s China headquarters and in the pilot district of Jiading. (English article) The pair of announcements follow a similar, more interesting one last month, in which GE teamed up with US rental car giant Hertz and Chinese EV maker BYD (HKEx: 1211) in a drive to make EVs available on a rental basis with GE supplying necessary charging infrastructure and BYD supplying cars. (previous post) I applaud China for its steadfast determination push ahead with its EV drive, which it is trying to do by offering buying incentives and by coaxing big names like GE, GM and Hertz to provide the necessary infrastructure. But it’s clear from the reserved nature of all these announcements that the biggest piece of the equation — consumer demand — is still missing. The rental car concept being rolled out by Hertz is good, as it will allow consumers to test out EVs and feel more comfortable with them before making a purchase. Beijing needs to make more moves like this, including a broader public education program, to build up the necessary consumer confidence that even the most aggressive infrastructure-building program can’t provide. Without such confidence, China’s EV drive could sputter and die before it even gets started.

Bottom line: China’s latest EV initiatives involving GE and GM look largely symbolic, and instead Beijing should focus on building the necessary consumer confidence to make its EV program work.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hertz, GE Give Jolt to BYD Electric Cars 赫兹新项目为比亚迪“加油

◙ Beijing Sends Mixed EV Signals 中国应推进电动车基础设施建设和宣传

◙ BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

China Carmakers Lose a BRIC in Export Drive 中国汽车厂商的出口机会将逐步缩窄

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Chinese car makers looking to exports to offset slowing sales at home have received a setback, after an alarmed Brazil sharply raised car import tariffs in a move that appears to be aimed at a sudden spike in Chinese imports. (English article) According to a domestic media report, Brazil rushed through the new rates, which will raise tariffs by 30 percentage points, after imports of Chinese cars zoomed from zero last year to 43,000 vehicles in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 3.3 percent of the market. The increase will deal a blow to car makers like Chery and Dongfeng Motor (HKEx: 489), as they look to foreign markets to help offset slowing domestic sales. China’s car makers saw their sales jump by healthy double-digit rates in 2009 and 2010, as their market, with the help of rising incomes and buying  incentives from Beijing, zoomed past the US to become the world’s largest by unit sales. But the growth has come skidding to a halt this year as incentives expired, prompting some of the more innovative companies to look abroad to offset the slowdown. Most   domestic firms’ cars are too low in quality to compete in developed western markets, leading some to target developing markets like the BRICS. This latest move by Brazil spotlights the risks for that road, as developing markets aren’t likely to welcome a flood of imported vehicles that could hurt their own domestic automakers, and will thus resort to this kind of tax to encourage investment in their domestic industries. Indeed, China itself uses just such tactics, imposing high tariffs on imported autos that have encouraged foreign giants like GM (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) to invest heavily in the Chinese domestic industry. Chery has already detailed plans to invest $400 million in a Brazilian manufacturing plant, and this latest move by Brazil is likely to spark more similar moves for companies that have the cash to invest.

Bottom line: Brazil’s tax increase on imported cars will put the brakes on Chinese exports to the market, and spotlights the difficulties they will face exporting to developing markets in general.

巴西大幅提高汽车进口关税，似乎在遏制中国产品进口的骤然增长。这令中国汽车厂商寻求以出口增长抵消内需放缓的努力遭遇挫折。根据巴西媒体报导，巴西今年前八个月进口中国汽车4.3万辆，占到巴西市场的3.3%，而去年进口还是零，这促使巴西政府匆忙出台新关税税率，大幅提高30个百分点。该举措将给奇瑞、东风集团等中国汽车厂商沉重一击，他们原以为可以借助国际市场抵消国内销售放缓的冲击。2009年和2010年，中国汽车厂商销量均以两位数增幅上升，在民众收入提高和中国政府鼓励政策支撑下，中国汽车市场以销量计算已经超过美国，成为全球之首。但是，随着购车刺激政策到期，今年销量增长陷于停滞，促使一些更具创新性的公司开始瞄准海外市场，寻求以此抵消国内市场放缓的影响。多数国产汽车质量太差，无法参与发达国家市场竞争，部分企业于是转向包括金砖国家在内的发展中国家市场。巴西最近开始的关税行动给中国厂商敲响了警钟，发展中国家市场也不大可能容忍进口汽车泛滥，并伤害到本国企业，于是终将拿起关税武器，鼓励外商投资于本国的汽车产业。实际上，中国自己实行的也是这种策略，对进口车徵收高关税，鼓励通用汽车(GM.N)和大众汽车(VOWG.DE)等行业巨头大量投资于中国汽车工业。奇瑞已经制定了详细计划，拟投资4亿美元在巴西建制造厂。巴西提高关税的举动很可能是希望刺激更多有投资能力的企业仿效吉利。

一句话：巴西对进口汽车提高征税标准将遏制中国对巴西汽车出口，也凸显了中国汽车厂商对发展中国家市场出口面临的困难。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Chery: A Good Bite With Subaru But A Lemon With Venezuela 奇瑞汽车喜忧参半

◙ China Buses: Cheap But Stuck in China 金龙：别开得太快

◙ Autos: a Desperate Capital Grab for Jianghuai, and Dongfeng’s Silly South Africa Plans 汽车业：江淮增发东风出口

Potent Partners Lift SAIC in Wobbly Times 动荡时期 合作夥伴撑起上汽的业绩

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Leading Chinese car maker SAIC Motor (Shanghai: 600104) has just posted its latest results that look quite impressive, underscoring that having strong foreign partners is critical in the highly competitive auto industry as it heads into a major slowdown. SAIC said its profit in the first six months of the year cruised ahead at a rapid 46 percent clip to 8.58 billion yuan, or about $1.3 billion — not bad for a market where growth has slowed dramatically this year and is only expected to reach 5-10 percent following the end of government incentives to boost sales during the global financial crisis. (English article) SAIC’s powerful joint ventures with China’s top two foreign car makers, General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) are clearly a critical part of its continued success, as many of its domestic rivals face a more bleak future with their less-known brands and weaker reputations for quality and after-sales support. Last week former domestic high-flyer BYD (HKEx: 1211), backed by US billionaire investor Warren Buffett, posted a 98 percent plunge in its latest profit (English article), while somewhat stronger domestic rival Geely (HKEx: 165), which made headlines last year with its landmark purchase of Volvo, also posted a modest 17 percent gain in first-half profit. (English article) SAIC should continue to outperform the rest of the market in terms of profit growth for at least the next couple of years, though it too could see its bottom line come under pressure amid growing price wars as companies vie for customers in a cooling market. In the latest development on that front, a GM executive told foreign media that GM’s SAIC-GM-Wuling has recently slashed prices of its low-cost minivans to offset slowing sales, though he added the promotions will be short-lived. (English article) We’ll see.

Bottom line: SAIC’s tie-ups with GM and VW will help it outperform the auto sector during  its latest downturn, but a building price war will also pressure its profits.

中国最大汽车制造商–上海汽车集团股份有限公司(600104.SS)最新财报业绩靓丽，突出在竞争高度激烈、且增长放缓的汽车行业，拥有强大的海外合作夥伴至关重要。上汽业绩报告称，上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润85.76亿元人民币（13亿美元），同比增长46.09%，鉴于今年中国车市增速大幅下滑，这样的业绩已经相当不错了。上汽与中国市场中的两大海外汽车厂商–通用汽车GM.O、大众汽车(VOWG.DE: 行情)建立的合资企业显然是上汽持续成功的一个关键因素。相比之下，国内很多竞争对手因为品牌知名度低、质量声誉一般，售後服务不过硬等，所面临的前景要黯淡很多。上周，国内另一家汽车厂商比亚迪(1211.HK; 002594.SZ)近期利润同比跌幅高达98%，另外一家汽车厂商吉利(0165.HK)中期净利按年不过增长17%。至少在未来数年内，上汽利润表现仍应优于整体市场状况，不过随着中国车市逐步降温，汽车行业价格战渐行渐近，未来上汽利润可能承压。一名通用汽车高管告诉海外媒体，上汽通用五菱近日已经降价销售低价小货车，以提振低迷销量。不过他并指出促销活动不会太长。今後到底如何？我们将拭目以待。

一句话：上汽与通用汽车和大众联合，有助于上汽业绩在最近的车市颓势中鹤立鸡群，但越来越近的价格战也会对其利润造成压力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Geely-Volvo: Good First Year, But Fork in the Road Ahead

◙  Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

 

Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

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The first quiet signs have emerged that a price war is building in China’s chilly auto market, with Ford (NYSE: F) disclosing that it’s coming under pricing pressure as sales slow under economic cooling measures from Beijing. (English article) The comments from Ford’s Asia chief at a recent US event were very low key, only saying the company has seen pricing pressure in the last 3-4 months. He didn’t give any numbers, but I’ve been  in the news business long enough to know that executives don’t usually make this kind of comment unless they want to brace investors for disappointment or worse. After more than a year of blistering growth of 50 percent or more, fueled in large part by incentives from Beijing, China’s auto market has slowed considerably in the last few months to low single-digit growth and even contraction. Unit auto sales were up an anemic 2 percent in July (English article), but that number says nothing about prices, which I suspect are down 5-10 percent from the previous year as many larger cities limit new buying to ease congestion. The pressure is likely to intensify in the coming year, as billions of dollars in spending on new capacity announced during the boom period start to come online. Smart players like General Motors (NYSE: GM) are bracing themselves for the coming China winter by exporting their China models and designs to other emerging markets and by developing new brands aimed at smaller cities where the slowdown won’t be as big. GM officially launched its made-in-China Baojun brand just last week (English article), and said earlier this week it will use made-in-China kits to build a locally developed minivan in India. (English article) But while GM and its China partner, SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) have the resources to make such protective moves, other domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and Geely (HKEx: 165) look much more vulnerable, and are likely to see their profits drop sharply in the months ahead or even sink into the loss column.

Bottom line: Ford’s recent comments indicate prices are dropping in China’s overheated car market, with the pressure likely to continue for at least the next year.

有初步迹象表明中国汽车市场将打响价格战，汽车巨头福特(F.N)称感受到定价压力，因中国旨在令经济降温的措施导致汽车销售放缓。福特负责亚太业务的负责人此番表态相当平和，只是说过去三四个月中感受到了定价压力。他未提供数据，但我在媒体界多年，深知企业高管很少会作这样的表态，除非他们希望投资者作好悲观准备。去年得益于政府刺激措施，中国汽车市场增速至少50%，而过去几个月则明显速度放缓，甚至到了萎缩的地步。7月汽车销量增长2%，但这根本没有反映出价格因素，我推测汽车价格同比下降了5-10%，因为许多大城市出台限购令，以解决道路拥堵。未来一年车市价格压力可能加深，因厂商扩充产能的投资将到位。象通用汽车(GM.N)这样精明的厂商已经相应作了调整，将在中国生产车型和设计向其他新兴市场推广，并面向小城市开发新的品牌，因为这些城市的汽车销售放缓程度没那麽严重。通用上周刚刚正式推出“中国制造”的品牌“宝骏”，且本周稍早称，将对在中国设计的小型货车进行改造，在印度生产和销售。虽然通用与上汽(600104.SS: 行情)有足够资源采取这类自我保护性举措，但其他国内汽车厂商，譬如比亚迪(1211.HK)和吉利(0175.HK)则更容易受到冲击，未来数月利润可能大幅下降，甚至可能出现亏损。

一句话：福特近期言论意味着，中国汽车售价将呈下滑，这样的压力可能至少在未来一年中将持续。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹：价格战越来越近？

◙ BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪：累了？