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Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

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Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (English article) I’m guessing this report, which cites an unnamed source, is probably very preliminary, as any such talks wouldn’t have started until after Bartz’s firing on Wednesday. What’s more, Yahoo’s acting CEO is just filling the position on an interim basis, meaning he would be highly unlikely to make such a major decision until a new permanent CEO arrives. But such a sale will inevitably be discussed, and I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is exactly NOT the time to consider such a move. I agree that the Alibaba stake was a major distraction for Bartz during her stormy tenure, and that I said once or twice that the company should try to sell it to focus on its own turnaround story. But the fact is, Alibaba and Yahoo could potentially really help each other, which is the main reason the former sold 40 percent of itself to the latter in 2006 when Yahoo was headed by Jerry Yang, good friend of Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma. If Yahoo’s new CEO can build a good working relationship with Ma, there are many places this pair could benefit each other. Yahoo has a solid global network in search and e-commerce that could both greatly benefit the global aspirations of Alibaba’s two e-commerce sites, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Taobao. From Yahoo’s perspective, it could leverage Alibaba’s position as China’s top e-commerce company to make another play for the China search market, especially after Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) high profile departure last year that left Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) with a near monopoly that is clearly making Beijing uncomfortable. Of course we’ll need to see who Yahoo picks as its new CEO, but if it’s smart it will bring Jack Ma into the process to hopefully find someone who can take advantage of this troubled but potentially lucrative relationship.

Bottom line: Yahoo would be well advised to delay considering a sale of its Alibaba stake, and should instead focus on finding a new CEO who can work well with the Chinese company.

仅在雅虎(YHOO.O)解雇首席执行官（CEO）巴茨（Carol Bartz）两天之後，已经有报导称雅虎正在商谈出售所持有的阿里巴巴公司40%股权。我猜这篇援引未具名人士的报导内容可能非常不成熟，这种重要的谈判在巴茨周三被解雇之前并不会开始。此外，雅虎的代理CEO只是临时应急，也就是说在新CEO到任前，他绝无可能作出这个重要决定。然而，商讨出售阿里巴巴股权将无可避免，我也想借这个机会说，现在绝不是考虑采取行动的好时机。我也认为阿里巴巴股权问题是巴茨在任期间让她主要困扰的问题。我曾说过一两次，雅虎应该尝试出售持有的阿里巴巴股权，聚焦于改善自身经营业绩状况。但是，阿里巴巴和雅虎事实上存在真正相互支持的可能性，这也是前者在2006年将40%股权售予雅虎的主要原因。当时雅虎的CEO是杨致远，也是阿里巴巴董事局主席马云的好朋友。如果雅虎的新任CEO能够与马云建立良好的工作关系，两家公司在很多方面可以实现互惠互利。雅虎拥有稳固的全球搜索和电子商务网络，可以极大惠及阿里巴巴旗下两家电子网站--阿里巴巴和淘宝的全球发展目标。从雅虎的角度来看，可以利用阿里巴巴在中国电子商务领域的龙头地位，在中国搜索市场再做文章。尤其是在谷歌去年高调离开之後，百度获得了接近垄断的行业地位，这明显让中国政府感到不安。当然，我们需要看看雅虎挑选谁来担任CEO，但是雅虎如果足够聪明的话，将请马云参与到寻找合适人选的过程中，处理好目前陷入困难但仍有希望改善的双方关系。

一句话：雅虎应该延後考虑出售所持阿里巴巴的股权，聚焦于加快寻找能够与阿里巴巴睦邻互惠的新任CEO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

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The sudden firing of Carol Bartz, the hard-nosed CEO of search giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is all the talk of the tech world today, and I have no doubt the folks at Alibaba Group, who took every opportunity to bad-mouth this woman, are quietly celebrating the news. (English article) But if he’s smart, Alibaba chief Jack Ma should do more than just celebrate Bartz’s departure, and reach out to the Yahoo board to try and mend fences and even play a role in helping to choose a new CEO that can work constructively with China’s leading e-commerce company, which is 40 percent owned by Yahoo. Ma never tried to hide his animosity towards Bartz, a woman he considered brash and lacking vision, when she replaced his good friend Jerry Yang at the helm of Yahoo several years back in a bid to rescue a company that was rapidly losing ground to more nimble rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). Ma, through well-placed leaks to the media, made it known repeatedly over the last 2 years that he wished Yahoo would sell its stake in Alibaba, and did everything he could to line up potential buyers. But Bartz never took the bait, realizing the Alibaba stake was worth up to $10 billion, thus accounting for a large piece of Yahoo’s market cap, which now stands at $17 billion. Of course, now all the enmity is history, and Ma should take advantage of the moment to see if he can lay the foundations for a more constructive relationship by reaching out to Yahoo’s board rather than waiting for the board or eventual new CEO to come to him. Six months ago I would have said that Ma, who rightly sees himself as one of China’s earliest e-commerce visionaries, was too proud to make such a move. But after a bruising scandal earlier this year that saw him harshly criticized for his secret spin-off of Alibaba’s e-payments unit, AliPay (previous post), he appears to have become a humbler person and may even believe he’s human again! Given all the recent developments, I’d say there’s a very good chance these two partners with such a stormy past might finally be able to sit down together and forge a good new relationship that benefits everyone.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Jack Ma has a golden opportunity to reset his relationship with Yahoo following the firing of its brash CEO, and is likely to reach out to the US company to mend fences.

雅虎(YHOO.O)突然解雇首席执行官巴茨（Carol Bartz），是今天业内的热议话题，我相信，不放过任何攻击巴茨机会的阿里巴巴集团正在暗中庆祝。但如果马云聪明的话，就不只该庆祝巴茨下课，而应采取更多行动，与雅虎董事会接触，力争改善双方关系，甚至积极帮助雅虎挑选一名能与阿里巴巴建设性合作的新掌门。雅虎持有阿里巴巴40%的股份。马云从不掩饰他对巴茨的厌恶之情。马云认为，巴茨傲慢无礼且缺乏远见。几年前，谷歌(GOOG.O)迅速抢占雅虎市场份额，马云好友杨致远当时试图力挽狂澜，而之後巴茨取代杨致远成为雅虎CEO。近两年，马云巧妙地通过媒体，多次表达希望雅虎出售阿里巴巴股份的意愿，并竭尽所能寻找潜在买家。但巴茨从未让马云如愿，因为雅虎所持有的阿里巴巴股份价值已高达100亿美元，在雅虎170亿美元市值中占很大比例。当然，这些都是过去的事了，马云应利用这次机会，与雅虎董事会进行接触，力争为一个更具建设性的合作夥伴关系奠基，而不是坐等雅虎董事会任命新的CEO。如果在六个月前，我会认为，马云自尊心太强，不屑于采取如此举措。但今年早些时候，马云秘密转让支付宝股权遭抨击後，似乎变得更谦逊，甚至令人相信他又有人情味了！鉴于上述最新进展，我敢说，雅虎和阿里巴巴有望冰释前嫌，可能终于会坐下谈判，建设新的双赢合作关系。

一句话：雅虎解雇CEO巴茨，是阿里巴巴董事长马云与雅虎关系重启的绝佳机会，马云很可能会与雅虎接触，改善双方合作关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

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There’s been lots of noise in the electronic payments space lately, as China gets ready to issue its second round of licenses to domestic players (Chinese article) and accepts applications from foreign firms (Chinese article), with eBay’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) PayPal most prominent among those applying. (English article) Into that mix we can also add this week’s news that Alipay, the e-payments arm of Alibaba Group, has purchased the China assets of OnCard Group International (Sydney: ONC), a small Australian firm that specializes in payments for plane tickets. In my view, all this noise is exactly that: lots of noise with little or no importance for the future. When you look at developed markets like the US or Europe, e-payments in both areas are dominated by credit card issuers Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA), which also own the top global electronic networks linking up many of the world’s banks. The only niche player that has come even close to competing with them is PayPal. So let’s translate that equation to China. In terms of Visa and MasterCard equivalents, the clear parallel is UnionPay, which operates a similar network and is backed by all of China’s top banks. (previous post) That means that MAYBE there is room for one or two more players at the most, meaning all these licenses now being awarded will ultimately be meaningless. PayPal would clearly like to take a similar position in China to its global position, and AliPay is certainly a leading candidate to become a major player, drawing on its tight connections to Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), China’s B2B commerce leader, and Taobao, a leading B2C site. AliPay’s acquisition of OnCard’s China assets looks interesting, until one looks further and sees that OnCard itself is a tiny company with a market cap of only $30 million. But regardless, look for nearly all of these new e-payment licenses to be business dead-ends, with only one or possibly two players surviving in a space that will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and credit card issuers like Visa and MasterCard.

Bottom line: China’s electronic payments sector will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and other credit card companies, leaving most other e-payments licensees bankrupt.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

Tidbits: UMPay, Giant Interactive, China Telecom

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Today marks the launch of a new item consisting of occasional tidbits that aren’t big enough for individual articles but look interesting nonetheless, along with a thought or two on what it all means.

— UMPay: Chinese media are reporting that this joint venture between industry powerhouses China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is applying for a license to provide electronic payment services. (English article) Given the two venture partners’ dominant position in both of their spaces, such a venture could quickly become a major player, threatening smaller e-payments companies as well as bigger ones like Alibaba’s Alipay.

— Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA): The company has announced a payout date of September 9 for its massive one-time dividend of $3 per share, which amounts to a whopping 36 percent of its latest closing share price. (company announcement) Its stock has risen about 50 cents a share since it announced the dividend early this month, clearly far less than the size of the dividend. I’ll be watching closely to see how the shares trade on September 12, after the dividend is paid.

— China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA): Chinese media report the company recently launched a tender for more than 3 million set-top boxes — the clearest sign yet that China’s leading fixed-line carrier is close to a major launch for a video-on-demand type service that it has long talked about but has yet to appear. (English article) Such a service could provide a major source of new income, as the company struggles with steady declines for its fixed-line phone business.

360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

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Perhaps I’m becoming a bit biased due to my belief that China is in the midst of an Internet bubble, but the latest word from online retailing giant 360Buy that it is cutting off Alibaba’s Alipay online payments service to me looks like the latest sign of a swollen China Internet sector under growing duress. As many will recall, 360Buy made headlines earlier this year when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion in new funding, a record for a private Chinese Internet company and just one of a large number of fundings of $100 million or more as both domestic and foreign investors piled onto the China Internet bandwagon. (previous post) One of the 360Buy investors, Russia’s Digital Sky Media, justified the massive investment by saying the company could be worth a staggering $10 billion — about triple the value of most of China’s biggest Internet firms excluding titans Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). So I find it a little surprising that 360Buy CEO Liu Qiangdong is citing Alipay’s annual costs of about 5-6 million yuan, or less than $1 million, as the reason behind is company’s decision to cut off the service. (Chinese article) I’m certainly not in favor of needlessly wasting money, but for a company that just raised $1.5 billion to say an annual expense of $1 million is too high, especially in a high-growth area like e-payments, sounds to me like 360Buy is coming under increasing pressure to slash costs as its new impatient investors push it to become profitable — something that may not happen soon due to fierce competition in China’s e-commerce market. This latest move by 360Buy, combined with recent massive layoffs by Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent, (previous post) are just the latest signs of China’s growing Internet bubble, which could start to burst in dramatic fashion in the next 6 months.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s termination of its agreement to offer Alipay e-payment services is the latest sign of a building Internet bubble in China.

也许我是有点偏见，我认为中国互联网正出现泡沫。不过从京东商城近日宣布停用支付宝来看，似乎确实印证中国互联网产业面临更大压力。许多人应该都还记得，京东商城今年早些时候获得海外15亿美元融资，京东商城投资方之一–俄罗斯投资公司DST当时大谈此宗投资的合理性，称京东商城价值高达100亿美元。因此现在京东CEO刘强东以“费率高”为由，宣布停止与支付宝合作，让我有点意外，毕竟京东每年付给支付宝的费用也就是500-600万元人民币，还不足100万美元。我当然不是主张不必要的浪费，但作为刚融资15亿美元的京东商城，说每年100万美元的电子支付费用太高，让人感觉似乎京东商城在降低成本方面压力加大，因为投资方要求其实现盈利，而这在眼下中国竞争激烈的电子商务市场来说很难。京东商城此举，加之高朋网裁员，都是中国互联网呈现泡沫的迹象，也许未来六个月中我们会看到泡沫开始戏剧性破灭。

一句话：京东商城停用支付宝，是中国互联网产业出现泡沫的最新迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

 

Xiu.com Funding Puts Glamor in Online Fashion 服饰类网站前景看好

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Intensifying competition will mean a tough road ahead for broader e-commerce in China, but one area that still looks attractive is apparel, as reflected by a nifty $100 million in new funding for online fashion house Xiu.com. (English article) The tidy amount follows a smaller $20 million funding in March, and this latest round includes such venture capital giants as Warburg Pincus and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. The funding comes less than a month after online footwear seller Yougou.com received a rumored $450 million in funding from a group that included online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), and as another leading online apparel seller, Vancl, gears up for an IPO that should be one of the hottest China offerings in the second half of the year. Apparel is also one of the best selling areas for Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, testifying to the strength of this product category that enjoys strong demand and is relatively less competitive due to higher barriers of entry. By comparison, more general merchandise e-commerce firms like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-backed (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian seem to be locked in an increasingly bloody battle where marketing and distribution costs are markedly higher due to the broader array of products and customers they cater to. Of course, it may only be a matter of time before apparel makers get caught up in their own bloody battle for market share. But unlike general merchandise, these companies can more easily find their own niches due to the wide variety of clothing available, which may buffer them somewhat from cutthroat competition. Either way, the group certainly looks like a strong bet for now, and I would expect Vancl to see strong demand when it finally moves ahead with its IPO after broader market sentiment improves.

Bottom line: A new $100 million funding round for Xiu.com testifies to the strength of online apparel, and bodes well for Vancl’s upcoming IPO.

竞争加剧意味着中国电子商务业前路难一帆风顺，但服饰类领域看似仍具吸引力，时尚购物网走秀网（xiu.com）新一轮融资1亿美元就是例证。走秀网今年3月曾获2,000万美元投资，而本次又获美国华平投资集团（Warburg Pincus）和Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等风投巨头投资。不到一个月前，鞋类销售网优购网（Yougou.com）据传获得4.5亿美元融资，投资方包括网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股（IPO），有望成为下半年最热门的中国上市企业。服饰也是淘宝商城最热销的领域之一，证明此类产品需求强劲，由於进入门槛较高，竞争相对没有那麽激烈。相比之下，销售日用百货的电子商务企业当当网<DANG.N>、京东商城和沃尔玛<WMT.N>投资的1号店似乎陷入激战，由於其产品和消费者范围更广，市场营销和渠道成本也明显更高。当然，服饰类企业激烈争夺市场份额或许也只是早晚的事情。但与一般商品不同，服饰类选择众多，企业更容易找到其小众定位，为其竞争提供了缓冲空间。目前看来，服饰类电子商务前景光明，我认为，市场情绪提振後，当凡客诚品最终进行IPO时，有望获得积极认购。

一句话：走秀网新一轮融资1亿美元证明，网络服饰销售颇具潜力，对凡客诚品即将IPO也是吉兆。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

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Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.

Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.

互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。

一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

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After months of wrangling, Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma has finally reached a settlement of his dispute with stakeholders Softbank (Tokyo: 9984) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) over the spin-off of the company’s Alipay electronic payments service, in what looks to be both a PR and monetary victory for Ma himself. (company announcement) It’s hard to say too much without knowing more about the financial structure of Alibaba, but the fact that the company will only get 37.5 percent of any proceeds from a future Alipay IPO, as stipulated in the terms of the agreement, looks like Alibaba — which counts Yahoo and Softbank as its controlling stakeholders — is getting surprisingly little from this investment that it once presumably owned completely. Terms of the deal say the parties expect Alipay to be valued at anywhere from $2 billion to $6 billion by the time an IPO or other “liquidity event” occurs, which means that Alibaba Group will get as little as little as $750 million from this asset by the time it goes public, which one might expect in the next 2-3 years. Despite an official announcement filled with lots of happy quotes from all three parties, including Softbank’s waxing on the importance of trust, this deal seems to hint of more conflict ahead as undoubtedly both Yahoo and Softbank will constantly worry that Jack Ma is trying to take advantage of them again in the years ahead. In this version of events that has just been announced, Jack Ma seems to come out the winner most ways you look at it, taking control of Alipay by only giving a third of the company to his partners, and also looking reasonable to the world after his childish behavior throughout this drawn-out conflict. If I were Yahoo or Softbank, I would try to get out of my Alibaba investment sooner rather than later, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of these companies try to sell their stake in this troubled company by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Jack Ma has won a PR and financial victory in his new Alipay settlement with Yahoo and Softbank, with more stormy relations between these 3 partners likely in the months ahead.

经过数月的争吵，阿里巴巴集团董事长马云终於就其与两大股东软银<9984.T>和雅虎<YHOO.O>就支付宝股权转让事件达成协议，对马云来说，似乎是公关和财富双赢。在对阿里巴巴财务结构所知甚少的情况下，我们很难就此事过多评论，但事实是，根据协议条款，阿里巴巴只能获得支付宝上市收益的37.5%，阿里巴巴似乎从这笔投资中所获甚少。预计支付宝将在未来两三年上市。尽管正式声明中充满了三方的友好表示，但该协议似乎暗示着未来会出现更多冲突，因雅虎和软银无疑都担心，马云未来几年会再次试图占他们的便宜。马云似乎怎麽看都是此次事件的最大赢家：首先，只把三分之一的公司出让给合作夥伴便掌控了支付宝；其次，通过这一旷日持久的纷争，协议的达成对世人也是个合理交待。如果我是雅虎或软银，我会努力尽早撤出对阿里巴巴的投资。如果在今年年底前看到两公司或其中之一试图出售阿里巴巴的股份，我一点也不会感到意外。

一句话：在此次与雅虎、软银就支付宝股权转让的纷争中，马云公关赚钱两不误，而三方未来数月的关系料不会一帆风顺。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

◙ Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽？

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

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Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, the B2C portion of Taobao that was split off into a separate entity under a restructuring last month (previous post) looks set to take a hit, as China moves to clean up its unruly pharmaceuticals industry by banning the sale of drugs online. (English article) The campaign looks very much like similar ones that Beijing has launched from time to time, and in particular resembles a drive a few years back to stop hospitals from making bogus claims through advertisements. That campaign saw traditional and new media companies like Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) suffer as hospitals and clinics, in search of more revenue as they were freed from state support, had become some of the biggest buyers of advertisements at the time. It’s hard to say how big the impact will be on Taobao from this latest drive to regulate drug sales, but I’m guessing such sales probably comprise a fair share of its transaction volume, probably somewhere in the 5-10 percent range. The loss of commissions from such sales won’t be devastating, but will certainly deal the company a setback, especially as it prepares for in IPO which I expect will come in the next year as Taobao investors, most notably Japan’s Softbank, clamor for some return on their investment. The ban could also have an impact on some other e-commerce sites, though many of the big ones, such as Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and Vancl, seem to be steering clear of the drug sector and focusing on less controversial products like books and clothing. Still, this latest ban is just the latest reminder that nothing in China is certain, either online or offline, and these kinds of periodic “clean-ups” can hit just about anyone at any time.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Taobao Mall will take a hit with China’s latest crackdown on online drug sales, taking away some of the company’s momentum as it prepares for an IPO as soon as next year.

中国正对网上售药进行治理，以规范药品行业，阿里巴巴旗下的淘宝商城料将受到影响。这与中国政府以往不时推出的行动很像，尤其是几年前，因为医院和诊所改制，不再得到国家资金支持，为寻找创收渠道，部分医院诊所成为广告商最大客户之一，而当时，政府发起禁止医院打广告夸大药效的行动，让分众传媒（Focus Media）<FMCN.O>和新浪<SINA.O>等媒体公司遭重创。很难说这次规范药品行业销售行动对淘宝的影响有多大，但我猜测，淘宝的交易额将受到一定影响，比例可能在5-10%左右。此类销售的佣金损失不会是毁灭性的，但肯定对淘宝商城不利，尤其是该公司正准备上市。我预计，由於淘宝投资者，尤其是日本软银，急於获取投资回报，公司将在明年上市。这一禁令也可能影响到其他电子商务网站，但当当网<DANG.N>和凡客诚品等许多大型平台正清除售药类别，重点发展图书和服饰等争议较小的产品。但此事提醒我们，在中国没有什麽是确定的，无论是线上还是线下，这些不时进行的“严打行动”可能在任何时间，影响到任何人。

一句话：中国近期严打网络售药，阿里巴巴旗下的淘宝商城或受创，在公司准备进行IPO之际，可能对其造成一定影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ Alibaba, Tencent Join Mobile OS Bandwagon 阿里巴巴和腾讯进军移动操作系统领域

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

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E-commerce in China is hot right now and apparel seems to be the latest hot area based on the latest deal involving online footwear seller Yougou. News on the investment is a bit conflicting, but consensus seems to be that Yougou has received hundreds of millions of US dollars in a new round of funding, and some are specifying the amount is around $450 million, with investors including Hong Kong-listed footwear distributor Belle International (HKEx: 1880) and Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). (English article; Chinese article) I haven’t been a big fan of Baidu’s e-commerce initiatives in the past, most notably its failed online store You’a, but this one certainly looks like it could have some potential with both a big Internet name behind it in the form of Baidu itself and a big apparel manufacturer and retailer in the form of Belle. This latest investment comes amid a recent flurry of activity in the e-commerce sector that points to its strong growth potential. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) bought into online retailer Yihaodian in May (previous post), and leading online apparel seller Vancl is reportedly in the process of an IPO that many believe will do well despite weak investor sentiment toward Chinese companies in general. Leading Web commerce company Alibaba also made  headlines last month when it split its Taobao unit into three pieces, a move aimed at breaking out the more profitable online B2C store business from the more problematic online auction C2C site. (previous post) All these companies are clearly chasing a growing Chinese Internet market that now numbers more than 500 million users, many of whom like to shop online as such transactions become easier and provide more choice and quality guarantees to traditional brick-and-mortar stores. As the market develops, Yougou looks like it’s in a nice mainstream niche and should be an interesting company that, depending on its finances, could make an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line: Online footwear seller Yougou looks like a smart investment for backers Baidu and Belle International, with potential for big growth and an IPO in the next 2-3 years.

电子商务目前在中国非常热门，鉴於鞋类销售网优购网日前获投资，服饰似乎是最新的一个热门领域。相关新闻说法略有些矛盾，但共识是，优购网在新一轮融资中筹到上亿美元，一些报导称，该融资具体金额约为4.5亿美元，投资者包括香港上市的鞋类销售商百丽国际<1880.HK>和网络搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。一直以来，我并不看好百度的各种电子商务举措，尤其是失败的百度有啊网站，但这次百度和百丽联手投资看似颇具潜力。电子商务领域近期各种动向均表明该领域极具增长潜力。沃尔玛<WMT.N>5月收购中国在线零售商1号店股权，有报导称凡客诚品正在准备首次公开募股（IPO），许多人认为，尽管对中国企业投资者情绪普遍偏弱，但凡客诚品IPO或会有良好表现。阿里巴巴集团上月将淘宝网分拆为三家独立公司，意在将盈利的B2C业务同问题重重的C2C业务分离。上述公司显然都加紧在中国互联网市场发展步伐，中国网络用户目前已突破5亿，许多人喜欢网上购物，因为交易更容易，选择更多，而且有质量保证。随着网购市场的发展，优购网看似发展方向不错，根据其财务状况，公司或会在未来两三年上市。

一句话：优购网增长潜力巨大，并有望在未来两三年上市，百度和百丽投资优购网似乎是明智之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ 360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？