Tag Archives: 谷歌

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

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Competition appears to be getting stiff in the Chinese group buying space, with word that Groupon-invested Gaopeng is dumping its paid search spend on both Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they have simply become two expensive. (English article) The reports cite unnamed sources, but if true, the news is significant because it marks the lightest sign of trouble in the vibrant group buying space. It could also be an early warning sign for Baidu, which is trying to squeeze more money out of its advertisers as growth in the new sign-ups for its advertising services slows. (previous post) Regular readers will recall that group buying sites were all the rage among venture capitalists earlier this year, with three sites, Dianping, 55Tuan and Lashou raising $500 million combined, as global leader Groupon also entered the China market by forming Gaopeng together with Tencent (HKEx: 700). 55Tuan became the first company to show signs of trouble when reports emerged earlier this week that at least 3 major investment banks were refusing to underwrite its planned IPO due to accounting concerns. (previous post) This latest report on Gaopeng would seem to reinforce that group buying is not quite as big in China yet as all the hype, with Gaopeng itself only generating a relatively modest 30 million yuan per month in revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two of these group buying sites combine within the next year as competition remains intense. Meantime, Gaopeng’s dumping of Baidu could also be an early warning sign for China’s search leader, which could start to see similar defections as companies balk at paying Baidu’s higher ad rates. Baidu said earlier this week that spending from individual customers grew by more than 50 percent in the second quarter (previous post), and clearly some customers like Gaopeng are not happy with those big increases and are looking for more cost effective ways to advertise.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s dropping of Baidu’s paid search services reflects both intense competition in the group buying space, and also a coming wave of defections by cost-conscious Baidu advertisers.

中国团购行业的竞购看似日益激烈，有传言称，Groupon投资的高朋网因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。报导援引了匿名消息人士的说法，但若真有此事，这则消息可谓重磅，因这意味着中国如火如荼的团购行业初露窘相。这可能也是对百度的一个早期预警，百度正试图向其广告客户收取更高的费用，因其广告业务的新签订单步伐放缓。经常看我博客的读者应该还记得，团购网站今年早些时候可谓风行一时，大众点评网、窝窝团和拉手网三家网站共募得5亿美元风险资金，与此同时，美国团购网站Groupon携手腾讯<0700.HK>成立了高朋网，进军中国市场。窝窝团是首家显露困境的团购网站，本周早些时候有报导称，至少三家国际投行因担心会计问题而拒绝代理其上市业务。这则关於高朋网的最新报导似乎再次说明，团购在中国的发展并非像炒作的那般声势浩大，高朋网一个月的营收也仅有3,000万元。随着竞争的白热化，倘若未来一年内有一两家团购网站合并重组，我将不会感到意外。同时，高朋放弃在百度投放广告也为百度提了个醒儿，面对百度不断上涨的广告费用，很多公司犹豫不决，百度或将开始看到类似的“倒戈”会不断出现。百度本周早些时候表示，第二季度个人客户的广告费用增加逾50%，很明显，高朋网这样的一些客户对百度大幅增加广告费用的举动很不高兴，并正寻求性价比更高的途径进行广告宣传。

一句话：高朋网放弃在百度投放广告不仅反映出团购行业的激烈竞争，而且也说明百度或面临一波广告客户“倒戈”风潮。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ China Groupon Wannabes in Fund-Raising Frenzy 中国团购网站掀起融资狂潮

Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

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Yesterday I wrote that video- and music-sharing site Xunlei’s New York listing plan was fast shrinking, and today it looks like it’s disappeared completely, the victim of a perfect storm of market- and company-related factors. In a tersely worded statement, Xunlei said simply that it had delayed the offering “due to market conditions”. (company announcement) The offering’s downfall came swiftly, and marks a stunning turnaround for a company that just over a month ago said that it hoped to raise up to $200 million. (previous post) It already boasted Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) as previous backers, and went on to add News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) media mogul Rupert Murdoch to the list, though that backing may have lost some importance in light of the current scandal surrounding Murdoch’s newspapers in the UK. But then shaky accounting practices at Chinese companies became a major concern in the market over the last month, and Xunlei’s own confession that weak accounting practices could constitute an investor risk did little to help its case. Add to that a lawsuit by seven major global record labels over music piracy (previous post), and the offering quickly shrank by more than half, from the previous $200 million to about $75, by the time  Xunlei finally decided to scrap the deal, at least for now. The company is likely to relaunch this offering when market sentiment improves, and would be well advised to clean up its accounting books and the content traded on its site before it makes such an attempt. Of course, those kind of clean-ups could be costly — wiping out substantial amounts of revenue and significantly shrinking the company’s prospects. Still, I would expect to see Xunlei return to market in the next 2-3 months, this time in a much lower-key offering and probably seeking a much lower valuation than it previously hoped for.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s withdrawal of it IPO reflects both company and market issues, but it is likely to make a second, more low-key, lower-valued bid in the next 2-3 months.

昨天，我写了一篇关於视频和音乐分享网站迅雷纽约上市计划迅速缩水的文章，而今天，迅雷看似将彻底无限期推迟IPO，成为市场和公司因素“完美风暴”的受害者。迅雷在一份简要声明中称，鉴於目前的市场情况，该公司决定推迟上市时间。迅雷IPO急转直下，而一个月前该公司还表示，希望融资规模能达到2亿美元。迅雷曾宣称，其支持者包括百度<BIDU.O>、谷歌<GOOG. O>及新闻集团<NWSA.O>媒体大亨默多克，鉴於默多克因窃听丑闻缠身，这种支持似乎已不那麽重要了。过去一个月来，中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻成为市场的主要关注点，而迅雷承认，会计问题或构成投资者风险对其亦无益。此外，全球七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权。该公司IPO规模迅速缩水逾一半，从先前的2亿美元降至迅雷最终决定暂停IPO计划时的7,500万美元左右。  如果市况转好，迅雷或将重启IPO，并可能会被建议提前清理会计账本和网站内容。当然，这种清理行动成本可能很高，会使其营收大幅减少，并导致公司前景大打折扣。不过，我预计迅雷未来两三个月将重归IPO轨道，届时迅雷料将更为低调上市，并可能大幅下调融资规模预期。

一句话：迅雷暂停IPO计划是出於公司和市场原因，但未来两三个月，该公司很可能会再次筹备上市，但将更低调，融资规模更小。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

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What once looked like one of the year’s hottest China IPOs, that of video and music sharing site Xunlei, is rapidly looking like one of the biggest failures, the victim to negative publicity about both the company itself and questionable accounting practices of Chinese firms in general. Chinese media are reporting that Xunlei has lowered the price range for its offering, originally set for Wednesday in the US but now moved to Thursday, to $12-$14 per share from a previous $14-$16 due to weak demand. (Chinese article) At that new range, it would raise around $78 million, far less than the $100-plus million it was originally targeting. So what happened on the road to market to derail such a once-promising company, whose backers include local and global search leaders Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)? At the company level, Chinese media reports that seven major record labels, including Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) and Warner Music (NYSE: WMG) are suing Xunlei for 20.5 million yuan surely isn’t good. (Chinese article) That figure translates to a relatively small $3 million. but the bigger picture is that China is pushing its major Web sites to rid themselves of pirated music and video, as evidenced by big content deals between the major global media companies and leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Baidu over the last two weeks. Xunlei has much less resources than these two sector leaders, and investors are probably scared that a clean-up of pirated material from the site could lead to a big drop in traffic. From a broader perspective, the IPO is coming to market as sentiment toward Chinese companies has chilled in recent weeks over a recent series of accounting scandals that have undermined investor confidence. With all that going against it, Xunlei is facing strong headwinds as it prepares to join the ranks of US-listed China firms.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s upcoming IPO will struggle out of the gate, and is likely to fall in its New York trading debut amid weak sentiment and a major lawsuit against it.

视频和音乐分享网站迅雷IPO原本是中国今年最热门的IPO之一，受该公司负面报导和中国赴美企业会计丑闻影响，迅雷IPO看似将迅速成为最大败笔之一。中国媒体报导称，由於认购情况不佳，迅雷已将发行价区间从之前的14-16美元下调至12-14美元，并将IPO时间从周三推迟至周四。按照新的发行价区间计算，其融资额将降至7,800万美元左右，远远低於原先上亿美元的目标。迅雷上市进程中到底发生了什麽，致使这样一个曾前途无量、获百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG. O>支持的公司陷入当前困境？从公司层面上来看，中国媒体报导称，索尼音乐<6758.T>和华纳音乐<WMG.N>等七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权，索赔2,050万元，此事自然对迅雷影响不好。索赔金额换算一下不过300万美元，但该事件的大背景是，中国正敦促国内各大网站清除盗版音乐和视频，优酷<YOKU.N>和百度在过去两周分别与大型全球媒体公司签署内容协议即是例证。迅雷的资源远远少於优酷和百度，投资者或担忧，清除盗版内容，或导致其访问量大幅下降。从更广泛的角度来看，中国赴美企业近期系列会计丑闻重挫投资者信心，迅雷IPO适逢市况不佳之时。综上所有不利因素，迅雷赴美上市将面临强劲阻力。

一句话：迅雷赴美IPO路途多舛，由於市况不佳，并遭大唱片公司侵权起诉，迅雷纽约首秀或将破发。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China, US Move to Ease Confidence Crisis 中美合作解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

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It’s official: Less than two months after Chinese media first carried reports of a new Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) service that I said looked suspiciously like a Facebook-type SNS product (previous post), China’s most popular Web portal has announced the public beta testing launch of the new product, called Boke Qing in Chinese, or Blogging Light. (Chinese article) Sina’s own description of the new service, which ingeniously allows users to interlink new accounts with their existing accounts on its wildly popular Twitter-like Weibo product, says that Qing is designed to complement Weibo by providing users with the ability to post longer messages, as well as photos and other multimedia offerings. Does this sound a bit like Facebook? The beta site at qing.weibo.com says the service already has about 700,000 users, though I’ve no doubt that is probably a bit inflated. Still, considering Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) early success with its new SNS product, Google Plus, despite being years behind Facebook, I’d say this new Qing product, which smartly draws on Weibo’s huge user base, stands a strong chance of success and could quickly pose a major challenge to industry leaders Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin, as well as SNS products being developed by established net giants like Tencent (HKEx: 700). From a broader perspective, Qing will undoubtedly be coupled with Weibo into a single SNS business unit at Sina, which is hoping to quickly build up the company for a blockbuster IPO in the next two to three years. It’s still too early to say if Qing will be able to make big headway in the market, but I would say the chances are good that it could quickly catch up with and possibly even overtake Renren or Kaixin in the next couple of years.

Bottom line: Sina’s beta launch of a new SNS product, Qing, is the latest move to leverage its popular Weibo service, which could soon pose a challenge to SNS leaders Renren and Kaixin.

媒体一个多月前首次报导称，新浪<SINA.O>推出了轻博客，我当时说过，这项新服务看似像Facebook一类的社交网产品。新浪周一正式宣布启动轻博客公测版本。用户可使用新浪微博账户直接登录轻博客，两款产品已实现相互联通，据新浪描述称，轻博客是微博的补充，可以发布长文和组图，以及其他多媒体功能。这听起来是不是有点像Facebook？轻博客（qing.weibo.com）测试版网页称，该服务已拥有约70万名用户，我怀疑这可能有点言过其实。但鉴於谷歌<GOOG.O>在社交领域多年落後Facebook，而其新推出的社交产品Google Plus仍初获成功，我敢说，由於聪明地利用了新浪微博庞大用户群的优势，因此轻博客的成功机率很大，并且可能很快会对人人网<RENN.N>、开心网以及正研发社交产品的腾讯<0700.HK>等构成较大威胁。更宏观地看，轻博客无疑将与微博联手，成为新浪独立的社交网业务，在未来两到三年进行大规模首次公开募股（IPO）。现在谈轻博客是否能在该市场取得重大进展还为时过早，但我认为，轻博客未来一两年迅速赶上、甚至超越人人网和开心网的机率较大。

一句话：新浪启动最新社交产品轻博客公测版，是利用新浪微博杠杆效应的最新举措，可能很快会对人人网和开心网构成挑战。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间