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China Mobile’s (HKEx; 941; NYSE: CHL) first quarter results are out, and the picture certainly isn’t pretty for the country’s dominant mobile company (English results; Chinese results) The top and bottom line both show the usual single-digit slow growth that has become the norm for this company in the last 3 years as it builds off its dominant position without any new products to excite consumers. But what’s slightly alarming is the big drop in monthly revenue per user, which tumbled to 12 percent by the end of March versus the end of 2010. That’s a huge drop for such a short period, and clear evidence that the company is struggling to keep up with aggressive tactics by rivals Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHT) to win share with vastly superior 3G products. If the numbers keep eroding like this, China Mobile’s growth could very well flatten completely or even slip into negative territory.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s already-anemic growth is in danger of slipping into negative territory as it tries unsuccessfully to fend off competition from Unicom and China Telecom.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>首季度财报出炉，情况看上去不是很妙。营收和利润数字说明，其过去三年的个位数缓慢增长速度已成常态。虽然中国移动没有推出任何能取悦消费者的新产品，却依然占领市场老大地位，但稍令人警惕的是，其平均每月每户收入营收大幅降低，截至今年3月的数字与2010年年底相比下降12%。在如此短的时间内，这样的降幅还是很大的，而且这也清楚地说明，中国移动正苦苦应对中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK> <CHA.N>对3G产品市场份额的争夺。要是这一数字继续呈下降趋势，中国移动的增长速度可能更会大幅萎缩，甚至跌成亏损状态。

一句话：如果中国移动没能抵御住来自中国联通和中国电信的竞争，其岌岌可危的增长速度将面临变成亏损的危险。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Mobile Pushes Ahead With 4G Trial, Challenges Regulator 中国移动急於进军4G

◙ 2011: Year of the Unicom 2011：联通的好运年

It seems that Sinopec (NYSE: SNP; HKEx: 386), embroiled in a scandal over lavish spending on liquor, is fighting back with its own propaganda blitz to try and win back the hearts of consumers frustrated by rich profits and high prices being posted by China’s big oil companies. (previous post) In its rather feeble attempt to look like the good guy for once, Sinopec is saying it will stop exporting its refined oil products to markets where it could presumably earn more money to assist Chinese consumers struggling with high prices at home. (Chinese article) I’m sorry to say this, but Sinopec willl need to do much more than this to mend fences with angry Chinese consumers, and the only way to do that is to lower gasoline prices significantly and do a little profit trimming as well. The same holds true for PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857) and CNOOC (NYSE: CEO; HKEx: 883), which are both wisely staying silent during the Sinopec scandal. But in this case, simple silence won’t be enough.

Bottom line: Beijing and Chinese consumers will only be satisfied when the three oil majors significantly lower prices and trim their profits.

卷入了天价酒丑闻的中石化< 600028.SS><0386.HK>似乎正试图利用自己的宣传部门赢回消费者的心。为了维护形象，中石化宣称尽管成品油出口效益较好，但是为保障国内供应，帮助国内市场平抑油价，已暂停出口成品油。我的话可能有点不客气，但是中石化要想挽回人心，要做的可不止这些。要想赢回中国消费者的心，唯一能做的就是大幅降低油价，同时稍微削减一下利润。对於中石油<0857.HK><601857.SS><PTR.N>、中海油<0883.HK><CEO.N>来说也是如此。这两家公司在天价酒丑闻中都聪明地保持了沉默。但这一次，沉默还远远不够。

一句话：只有这三家石油巨头大幅降价，削减利润，中国的消费者才会满意。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sinopec Scandal Points to Big Oil Crackdown 中石化：“天价酒”事件实为敲山震虎？

◙ China’s Oil Shuffle: Not So Fast, Naysayers 石油巨头高管轮换：先别急着唱衰

◙ Sorry, Sinopec. Beijing’s more concerned wtih inflation, social stability

Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) Chairman Chen Tianqiao may be confused about what he wants his company to be, but don’t anyone ever call this guy boring. Just a couple of years after spinning off his core online game business into Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) Chen is loudly floating the idea of spinning off his online literature company into yet another publicly listed company called Cloudary Corp. (English announcement; English article; Chinese article) I’ll be the first to admit I was quite amazed to see that Shanda Interactive shares shot up 17 percent on the news, as this seems like just another of Chen’s shenanigans to get more money from investors. Certainly someone seems to like Chen’s strategy of monetizing his different businesses, which does make it easier for investors to choose which parts of the company they want to buy into. But let’s look at the numbers: Shanda Interactive and Shanda Game stock are both down slightly over the last year, even after the one-day rally, versus a 10 percent rise for the Nasdaq. Chen may certainly be a dealmaker, but he needs to focus on making products that can excite consumers if he really wants to attract investors.

Bottom line: Initial investor enthusiasm for Shanda’s online literature spin-off will quickly fade, leaving the market with yet another Shanda dud if and when its online literature unit makes an IPO.

盛大网络<SNDA.O>董事长陈天桥可能也搞不明白，他究竟想让公司变成什麽样，但你绝不能说他是个乏味的人。盛大游戏<GAME.O>分拆上市没两年，他又大张旗鼓地宣扬旗下盛大文学分拆上市的计划。盛大网络股价受此消息激励而飙涨17%，这真的令我感到吃惊，因为我觉得，这听起来不过是陈天桥圈钱新招而已。当然，有的人似乎支持陈天桥将旗下不同业务“货币化”，因为这样便于投资者选择更具体的投资方向。但我们不妨来看看数字：盛大网络和盛大游戏股价即便在周一大涨後，较上年同期仍略跌，而同期Nasdaq指数却上扬了10%。陈天桥也许擅长融资交易，但他如果真的想吸引投资者，就应该把注意力放在如何推出吸引消费者的产品方面。

一句话：投资者对盛大文学分拆上市的追捧气氛将迅速消退，若盛大文学真的进行首次公开上市(IPO)，无非是盛大又一个失败的产物。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Don’t Gamble on Shanda, Says CCTV 盛大被曝光

◙ Ku6 Media CEO Falls Victim to Whimsical Ways of Shanda’s Chen

◙ Sohu’s Sogou and Shanda’s Groupon: Barking Up the Wrong Trees

A couple of weeks after reporting my amazement at a $1.5 billion foreign investment in e-commerce site 360Buy (previous post), one of the investors is finally speaking out to defend the move. A top exec at Digital Sky Technologies (DST), the Russian firm whose investments include a major stake in Facebook, is saying in a local interview he thinks 360Buy may be worth about $10 billion, which should give everyone an idea of how much the group got for its $1.5 billion investment. (Chinese article) In fairness, 360Buy, which hasn’t given any financials, has a solid reputation in China and is certainly an e-commerce leader. But let’s take a look at the competition: Sure, Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) have become darlings of investors, who have given them sky-high valuations and meteoric market caps in the $30-$40 billion range. But after those, most top Chinese Internet firms, including leaders like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA), have been stuck in the $6-$8 billion range for quite a while. So, is 360Buy really worth $10 billion? We’ll have to see some financials before we can give a better answer, but I predict the numbers will ultimately disappoint and investors will be reluctant to reward the company with valuations like those for Baidu and Tencent.

Bottom line: DST made a smart investment in Facebook, but its 360Buy investment is overly optimistic and will yield much lower returns.

本 月早些时候，我对京东商城获得海外15亿美元融资感到诧异，如今主要投资方之一终於站出来谈论此项投资的合理性。俄罗斯投资公司DST高管称，他认为京东 商城价值约100亿美元。京东商城未曾公布过财务数据，不过公平地说，在中国大陆口碑还不错，堪称电子商务巨头。但我们不妨看看其它竞争者的情况：百 度<BIDU.O>和腾讯<0700.HK>成了投资者的宠儿，市值达到三四百亿美元。但除此之外，中国多数顶尖互联网企业，包 括新浪<SINA.O>，网易<NTES.O>和盛大网络<SNDA.O>，市值均徘徊於60-80亿美元。因此， 京东商城真的价值100亿美元吗？我们恐怕先得看看财务数据，才能更好地判断。但据我推测，其财务数据最终将令人失望，投资者对其估值将远远无法媲美百度 和腾讯。

一句话：DST当初投资Facebook是明智的，但这次投资京东商城恐怕是太过乐观了，得到的回报会低得多。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

◙ Renren Takes Lead Over Kaixin With Blockbuster Filing 人人网：风风火火IPO 气势盖过开心

◙ Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal Facebook能否入华？

Huawei Technologies 2010 results are just out, and while they might make more established companies like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) and Nokia Siemens Networks jealous they certainly aren’t all that exciting. The company saw 2010 profit and revenue rise 30 percent and 24 percent, respectively — respectable numbers but not nearly as exciting as some of the explosive growth we’ve seen in the past. (English article; Chinese article) Hidden in the detailed report was the intriguing assertion that Huawei wants to add more profitable IT services to its portfolio in a bid to keep its growth going. I use the word “intriguing” because, to the best of my knowledge, none of Huawei’s rivals in either the networking equipment or cellphone spaces have taken this route. My guess is that networking equipment is too specialized for such services, while cellphones are too consumer oriented. That said, Huawei’s foray into this venture seems destined to face a tough road ahead, and in the end it will probably have to abandon the effort and look for other new areas for growth.

Bottom line: Huawei’s foray into IT services will end up a disappointment, with the company facing a future of slow growth as its traditional hardware businesses mature.

华 为刚刚公布2010年财报，虽然足以令爱立信<ERICb.ST>和诺基亚西门子网络艳羡不已，但其实也不算多么振奋人心。华为2010年利 润和营收分别增长30%和24%，算是业绩不俗，但与过去爆炸式增长相比，不过尔尔。华为希望加强利润率更高的IT服务领域，以保持高速增长。我觉得很好 奇，因为据我了解，华为无论是在网络设备领域还是手机领域的竞争对手，都未尝试这样的模式。我猜，这大概是因为，对IT服务来说，网络设备领域太过专业 化，而手机业务又太以消费者为导向。因此华为的这个尝试必将困难重重，最终可能不得不放弃，另辟新的增长领域。

一句话：随着华为传统的硬件业务趋於成熟，华为未来面临增长缓慢的风险，而华为进军IT服务领域的尝试，可能以失望告终。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Motorola, Huawei Settle, Now Everyone Can Move On 华为与摩托罗拉和解，各方均受益

◙ ZTE, Huawei Stumble Some More 华为中兴：难兄难弟

◙ Huawei: Strength in Separation? 华为：大胆尝试“本土化管理”

As names like Renren, Kaixin and Netqin fill the radar screen of China Internet investors, another company — mobile search firm Easou — is quietly making smaller headlines as another up-and-comer to watch. Local media report the company, whose founding in 2005 makes it one of China’s first mobile search firms, has recently received $50 million in new venture funding from a group that includes Taiwan chip giant UMC (Taipei: 2303) and France’s Ventech, and is looking to list as soon as 2013 when it expects annual revenue to breach the 1 billiion yuan mark. (English article; Chinese article) While it’s far from certain that Easou will remain the leader in this space two years from now, especially with companies like traditional search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) taking their own initiatives, Easou certainly looks like an interesting proposition. After all, any company that even thinks it could reach the 1 billion yuan revenue mark just seven years after its founding must be doing well, and could easily hold on to its position as China’s mobile search leader if it makes the right moves.

Bottom line: Easou is well positioned to hold its leadership position in the mobile search space, but needs to make the right moves to fend off potential rivals like Baidu and Tencent.

人人网、开心网、网秦公司等正受到中国互联网投资者的密切关注，此时另一家公司–移动搜索企业宜搜–也在悄悄崛起。中国媒体报导称，成立於2005年 的宜搜近日获得5000万美元风投资金，投资方包括台湾芯片企业–台联电(2303.T)、法国风投公司Ventech等，且宜搜计划最早2013年上 市，该公司期待届时年收入突破10亿人民币大关。眼下，传统互联网搜索企业，如百度等正对进军移动互联搜索领域跃跃欲试，两年内宜搜能够保持行业领先地位 还远未可知，不过宜搜看起来处於比较有利位置。毕竟，任何企业敢想象仅成立七年之际营收就突破10亿大关，那他们目前的业务必定异常出色，且如果不出昏 招，必可轻易守住移动搜索领域的领导地位。

一句话：宜搜对於守住移动搜索领域龙头地位形势看好，但它需要决策无误才能抵御百度、腾讯等潜在对手。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu-Powered Cellphones? I Don’t Think So 百度也想做手机？恐怕没戏

◙ Wo! China Unicom OS Stumbles Onto the Wire

After reporting last week about the race to market between Chinese social networking sites Renren and Kaixin Wang (previous post), Renren appears to have taken the early lead by filing for an IPO worth up to $500 million — likely to be China’s biggest Internet listing of the year. (English article; Chinese article) Clearly Renren’s more established status, coupled with support from Japan’s Softbank, one of Renren’s largest investors, is pushing this one to market more quickly than younger and less nimble Kaixin. In my last posting I said the winner of this race would get a big premium as China’s first social networking site to list, but in fact the winner would be the world’s first such major site to go public, beating out even global leader Facebook. That makes the race even more interesting, and the stakes even higher if Renren gets there first. Media reports say Renren lists Internet giants Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) as rivals, but it seems to have largely forgotten Kaixin. Talk about downplaying the competition. Given its longer history, better global connections and status as first to make a public filing, it looks like Renren has gained an early lead in this race.

Bottom line: Renren has an  early lead in its race to market with Kaixin, positioning itself to earn a massive premium for its investors if it becomes the world’s first major SNS to go public.

上周曝出人人网、开心网竞相上市後，人人网已经提交了五亿美元IPO申请，目前似乎领跑一个身位，有可能成为年度最大规模的中国互联网企业上市案例。显然，人人网地位更稳，比之成立时间相对较短、且灵活度较低的开心网，人人上市走得更快。我在之前的文章中说过，这场比赛的赢家将成为中国首个上市的社交网络企业，因此可以在IPO时取得较大溢价，但事实上赢家还能赶在全球头号社交网络Facebook之前，成为全球首家上市的社交网络企业。这样一来，这个比赛有更有看点了，如果人人领先一步上市，其得到的回报也会更高。根据媒体报导，人人网将互联网巨头百度与腾讯视为竞争对手，但似乎已不太重视开心对其的威胁。考虑到人人网创立时间更久、全球关系更好且首先提交上市申请，看来人人网在比赛刚开始就获得了领跑优势。

一句话：人人网、开心网上市大PK，人人网起跑抢占上风。如果最终成为全球首家最先上市的社交网络企业，人人网将会为投资者争得巨大溢价。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren Vs Kaixin: Who Will Get There First? 开心网PK人人网：谁能抢先上市？

◙ Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal Facebook能否入华？

◙ Ren Ren chases me-too IPO

A growing scandal around Sinopec (NYSE: SNP; HKEx: 386) points to a looming crackdown by Beijing on its three major oil companies, all basking in fat profits under the country’s current fuel pricing regime. First things first. The scandal that’s been making headlines is relatively small by itself, blasting Sinopec’s Guangdong branch for spending lavishly on liquor at several recent internal events (English article; Chinese article) Obviously this is bad publicity for Sinopec, but more importantly it’s a sign of the growing public discontent at how these companies are posting fat profits at the expense of ordinary citizens who see themselves being exploited by Sinopec and its two main rivals, CNOOC (NYSE: CEO; HKEx: 883) and PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857). In the past week alone, two friends have complained to me that Chinese gas prices are now higher than those in the US, a rarity in these times. Given all the noise, combined with Beijing’s worries about inflation, it’s just a matter of time, probably months or even weeks, before Beijing takes action to rein in fuel prices.

Bottom line: Public anger over high fuel prices and Beijing’s resolve to tame inflation mean the days of fat profits for China’s oil majors are numbered.

中石化“天价酒”事件昭示中央政府“修理”三大油企的日子越来越近。先说一下事件原委。事件本身并不算大，媒体抨击广东石化在多次内部活动中用酒极其奢侈，这显然大损中石化公关形象，但更重要的是，事件是一种民意对石油三巨头日趋不满的彰显：三巨头财源广进，百姓却遭赤裸剥削。仅过去一周中就有两个朋友向我抱怨，中国油价现在已超过美国，这在时下两国物价的对比中尚属罕见。抱怨四起、政府心忧通胀，中国抑制油价只是时间问题，可能也就在这几个月甚至几周。

一句话：民众严重不满高油价、政府决心控通胀，中国大油企“高利润”时代即将寿终正寝。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Oil Shuffle: Not So Fast, Naysayers 石油巨头高管轮换：先别急着唱衰

◙ PetroChina Gets in Bed wtih Saudis to Secure Oil Supplies 中石油的沙特“情缘”

◙ Oops: Beijing thows oil majors a meager bone

Anyone who doubted that Chinese Internet giant Tencent (HKEx: 700) was serious about video sharing should think again. In the latest of a string of reports on the company’s intentions in that space, Chinese media are reporting the company best known for its QQ instant messaging service has earmarked 500 million yuan, or nearly $100 million, to develop content for its own video sharing service (English article; Chinese article) This news comes not long after Tencent formed a video alliance with several other firms who agreed that content obtained by any member would be shared by all. (previous post) Add to that Tencent’s own investment in another video sharing firm, Xunlei, and I think you begin to see the picture: Tencent is serious about this business. Given its previous strong track record at developing new businesses, I’d say that smaller rivals like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou, as well as other newcomers like Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) should take note that a major new rival is taking shape. Who knows, maybe one day they could even challenge the likes of global giant Youtube.

Bottom line: Tencent’s commitment to video stands a good chance of success, boding well for its own bottom line but poorly for domestic rivals like Tudou and Youku.

任何质疑腾讯<0700.HK>对视频分享业务重视程度的人都应重新思考一下了。近期有一系列关於腾讯有意进军该领域的报导。中国媒体最新报导称，腾讯已拨出5亿元人民币专款，用於发展其视频分享服务。此前不久，腾讯与多家视频网站结成一个视频版权联盟，其中的所有成员均可互享视频内容。再加上腾讯直接投资於视频分享网站迅雷，我想你们已开始看到：腾讯非常重视视频业务。鉴於腾讯以往开发新业务的战绩，我想说，优酷网、土豆网等规模较小的竞争对手以及盛大等新手都应重视这个正在成形的强大竞争者。谁知道呢，或许有一天，腾讯甚至能挑战Youtube等全球视频巨头。

一句话：腾讯进军视频业，成功机率很大，对自身发展是个良机，但对土豆网和优酷网等国内竞争对手可能是个坏消息。

Related postings 有关文章:

◙ Tencent Takes on Video Sharing in New Alliance 腾讯觊觎视频霸主地位

◙ Tencent Chases a Faded Giant in Myspace 腾讯竞购末路英雄Myspace

◙ Watch Out Youku: Google-backed Xunlei Marching to Market

There’s interesting news in China’s new energy sector, where leading wind power producer Longyuan Electric Power (HKEx: 916) has tied up with Spanish wind turbine giant Gamesa (Madrid: GAM) to explore global expansion opportunities. (English article) This is exactly the kind of tie-up that China’s export hungry alternate energy firms need to be making if they really want to compete on the global stage, linking up with strong international partners with ties in those markets. In this case, Gamesa brings not only ties in its home EU market, but also throughout Latin America where Spain also has long connections. Of course only time will tell if Longyuan can get any major benefits from this tie-up. But the combination of its low-cost manufacturing and support from Beijing, combined with Gamesa’s own expertise and global connections, could prove a potent combination for this pair and be a big contributor to their profits going forward.

Bottom line: It’s still early days, but this new tie-up between Longyuan and Gamesa could breathe new life into the global wind power sector, as well as both companies’ bottom lines.

中国新能源产业出现了一条有意思的新闻：中国风能领军企业龙源电力<0916.HK>已与西班牙风力涡轮巨头歌美飒（Gamesa）<GAM.MC>合作，联手探索全球风能市场扩张机遇。如果那些急於出口的中国新能源企业确实希望在全球市场参与竞争，他们就需要开展这样的合作，即与已经进入其它市场的海外大型公司携手。在这一案例中，歌美飒不仅带来其在欧盟市场的纽带，还引入了与西班牙渊源已久的拉美地区的关系网。当然，龙源电力能否从这一合作中获利颇丰，还只能靠时间来证明。但凭借龙源电力的较低制造成本、中国政府的支持，加上歌美飒的专业技术和全球业务纽带，两者或能实现强强联合，为双方都带来巨大收益。

一句话：现在下结论还为时尚早，但龙源电力与歌美飒的合作或能给全球风能产业吹来新的生机，并为两家企业带来盈利。

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The regulator’s estimate that China’s banks will need another huge cash infusion over the next 6 years to meet stricter capital requirements probably come as a big surprise to no one. But the amount — a whopping $131 billion — is probably raising a few eyebrows, especially after shareholders just gave the nation’s top banks well over $100 billion combined last year for the same reason. (English article) If I owned shares in any of these banks, which I don’t, the thought of investing more in them in the near future just to keep my stake from getting diluted certainly wouldn’t make me too happy. But then again, anyone who invests in Chinese banks is surely doing so at least partly because he or she knows that these banks are 100 percent guaranteed by the government and, as a foundation of the Chinese economy, are even more important than the Western banks that were later called “too big to fail.” I’d say to look for the banks to start begging again as soon as 2012, as that will give them at least one calendar year (i.e. 2011) when they didn’t need to ask shareholders for more money. And to those shareholders who complain when the future cash calls come, I can only say one thing: the “too big to fail” guarantee from Beijing comes with a big price tag.

Bottom line: Chinese banks look like a bad investment for the next few years, as a new round of cash calls looms.

监管机构估计，中国银行业未来六年将需筹集1,310亿美元的股权资本，来满足更加严格的资本充足规定。这一数额或许会让某些人惊讶不已，特别是中资银行去年刚以同样理由从股东们那里筹集了1,000多亿美元。如果我持有其中任何一家中资银行的股票(事实是我没有)，不远的将来我需要对它们进行更多投资，以使我的股票不被稀释，这种想法肯定不令人高兴。但话又说回来，任何投资中资银行的人肯定在这麽做，部分原因是他们知道这些银行是百分之百政府担保的，而且作为中国经济一个基石，中资银行比所谓“大而不能倒”的西方银行更为重要。我认为中资银行最快会在2012年开始寻求筹资，这将使他们至少有一年时间无需向股东要钱。对那些抱怨筹资的股东们，我只能说：中国政府对中资银行的担保是伴随巨大代价的。

一句话：未来几年，投资中资银行似乎不是个好主意，因新一轮筹资活动即将出现。

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