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TD-LTE Hits First Delay, More to Come? TD-LTE技术首次延期 未来还会更多？

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After reporting just yesterday that first-phase trials had wrapped up in 6 cities for TD-LTE, the 4G technology being developed by China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) (Chinese article), domestic media are reporting today that those same trials weren’t quite as clean as the first reports indicated, spotlighting the inevitable delays this technology will face in getting to market. China Mobile has been trialing TD-LTE on an expanded basis in 6 major cities since this spring, with domestic firms Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Datang, and global players Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Nokia Siemens and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), all seeking to showcase their technology in hopes of winning big future contracts when a national commercial network is built. Now it seems that two of the smaller players in the trials, Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and a company I’ve never heard of called New Postcom, have fallen behind in the trials by failing to complete their work for technical reasons. (English article; Chinese article) Frankly speaking, this particular delay looks rather small and insignificant, as neither Samsung nor New Postcom are major players in this area and their failure to deliver technology on time would probably have minimal impact on the building of new networks. But what these delays do highlight is the fact that TD-LTE is a completely new technology, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we see more significant big problems coming from the likes of Huawei and Ericsson as their trials become more advanced. People who follow the industry will recall that TD-LTE’s 3G predecessor, TD-SCDMA, was looking fine in its early trial stages until numerous issues started emerging later on, including all kinds of technological problems that continue to haunt China Mobile’s commercial 3G network to this day. TD-LTE could see less problems, since it’s a follow-on to TD-SCDMA, which was completely new, and it’s also closer technologically to other more globally accepted 4G standards. Still, such technological glitches are almost inevitable, and this first round of problems, while they appear small, are a reminder that more significant problems are almost guaranteed to appear as the trials become more advanced. Such problems will almost inevitably push back the timeline for a commercial rollout TD-LTE, making a service launch unlikely before before 2013, and perhaps more likely in 2014.

Bottom line: Newly disclosed delays in China Mobile’s 4G trials are a sign of things to come, with more significant problems almost guaranteed to push any commercial launch to 2013 at earliest.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

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It wouldn’t be a proper week if I didn’t write at least one commentary about Alibaba Group, which has been in the headlines nearly non-stop following the firing of Carol Bartz as the controversial CEO of Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), which owns 40 percent of Alibaba. After initial reports said Alibaba founder Jack Ma was interested in both buying and running all of Yahoo (previous post), the latest reports indicate Ma may have found little interest from investors in that plan and instead is narrowing his focus to simply buying back the 40 percent stake in his company owned by Yahoo. (English article; Chinese article) According to the reports, Ma is talking to Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek about funding a buy-out of the 40 percent stake, in a move which looks much betterthan Ma’s previous hopes of taking over and running Yahoo, which would have stood a big chance of failure.  Bringing in Temasek as its controlling stakeholder makes lots of sense, as this kind of investor is purely interested in earning money rather than a strategic pair-up, which is far more suited to Ma’s style as an extremely self-confident business owner who likes to call all the shots and doesn’t like to listen to others. Combined with separate media reports that say Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang is trying to engineer a privatization of his company, I could easily see Yahoo first being taken private, and then Ma’s Temasek-backed group buying back the 40 percent Alibaba stake from that newly privatized company. Separately, domestic and foreign media are reporting that Alibaba’s main B2C platform, Taobao Mall, is making a broad set of new moves to prepare itself for an IPO, possibly as soon as next year. (English article; Chinese article) The moves are too detailed to describe fully here, but the bottom line seems to be that merchants that sell on Taobao will see their fees rise dramatically, while Taobao is also taking strong early steps to prevent the kind of fraud on its site that undermined its sister company, B2B marketplace operator Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), earlier this year. Both moves look smart in my view, as the higher fees will weed out many of the smaller sellers that were the most likely to engage in fraud while significantly boosting revenue from the biggest merchants, while the anti-fraud measures will avoid future controversy like the one dogging Alibaba.com.

Bottom line: Alibaba Group is finally regaining some much needed focus by targeting a buyback of the 40 percent of the company owned by Yahoo, and by sharpening operations at its Taobao Mall.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba: The Little Genie That Roared?

◙ Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

◙ Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

Message to Beijing: Privatize the Big 4 Banks 对中国政府说：将四大银行退市吧

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I’m going to be a bit controversial today and make a bold suggestion that may seem obvious to some, namely that China should privatize its big 4 banks and let them resume their role as the state-owned policy lenders that they were for their first 50 years. The idea may sound extreme, but it’s exactly the approach that Beijing seems to be taking first by forcing its banks to issue billions of dollars worth of new shares to shore up their balance sheets last year, and now by announcing it will buy up even more of their stock to support their sagging shares. The banks’ majority shareholder, the central government-controlled Central Huijin, provided few specifics other than to say it has started buying up shares in the top 4 lenders, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 6019399), Bank of China (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) and Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288). (English article) Let’s review the facts: Huijin, which controls a third or more of each of those banks, already boosted its holdings in the 3 of the 4 last year when each made a multibillion-dollar share rights offering to strengthen their balance sheets after a year-long lending binge ordered by Beijing to prop up the economy at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. This new buy-back will put even more of the banks’ shares into Huijin’s hands, boosting the central government’s ownership even further. Shares of all 4 banks jumped in late Monday trading in Hong Kong on the news, and we could well see those gains extended on Tuesday. But the banks’ shares are still down sharply over the last year, falling 40-50 percent from their 52-week highs. The main reason for their poor performance is that investors realize that despite their publicly listed status, all 4 banks still take their orders from Beijing and show no signs of changing those habits, making them less attractive as growth companies. That said, it would make more sense for Beijing to just end the charade and take all 4 of the banks private again so they can continue in their role as policy tools of the central government.

Bottom line: Beijing’s latest move to buy back sagging shares in the country’s top 4  lenders further underscores their function as policy lenders that should be privatized.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

◙ ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

News Digest: October 11, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on October 11. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China State Investor Buys Shares in Four Biggest Banks as Valuations Slump (English article)

◙ Alibaba Said to Seek Temasek Financing to Buy Yahoo’s 40% Stake in Itself (English article)

◙ Rumor: TD-LTE Trials Stalled in Two Cities (English article; Chinese article)

◙ Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Delays Internet TVs Due to Regulatory Difficulties (English article)

◙ Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) Announces New and Improved Warranty Terms (PRNewswire)

Sina’s Weibo: Growth Engine or Growing Burden? 新浪微博：动力or负担？

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After months of seeing its shares and prospects soar on non-stop hype about its phenomenally successful Weibo microblogging service, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is quickly learning that what goes up often comes down, and that great chances for growth also carry equally great risk. In a rare setback for Weibo, which boasts 200 million users, Hong Kong media reported over the weekend that China is considering new regulations for the unruly microblogging sector, which has become an increasingly fertile ground for fanning public discontent and spreading rumors by people often using fictitious names. (English article) According to the report, the biggest change being considered would require all microbloggers to register accounts using their real names — a development that would instantly probably wipe out about 90 percent of the accounts now in use. Such a move is certainly consistent with previous measures taken by Beijing, which is trying to limit things like rumor mongering and spam, even as some criticize such moves as also limiting free speech. Even if less drastic measures are ultimately taken, the increased regulation doesn’t look good for Weibo and microblogging in general. Investors, recognizing that fact, have been dumping Sina shares en masse, sending the stock down by a third in the last 3 weeks. Making the situation worse, in my opinion, is the steady stream of reports about new social networking services (SNS) that Sina is now rolling out to try and leverage Weibo’s popularity. In the latest of those, local media are reporting that Sina is launching a new SNS product called Kandian (English article), after launching another related product called Qing back in July. (previous post) I understand that Sina is looking for ways to turn Weibo into a profit center, but this pattern of launching so many new businesses in such a short time looks very rushed and lacking in long-term vision, and could very well backfire by leaving Sina and Weibo with a new group of lackluster performers rather than the next new Internet sensation.

Bottom line: Looming new government regulations and an increasingly chaotic growth strategy both look like bad developments for Sina’s popular Weibo microblogging site.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

HK Woes Point to Shanghai Sell-Off Next Week 港股跌宕起伏沪深後市堪忧

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China’s struggling stock markets are taking a much-needed weeklong break for the National Day holiday, but weak sentiment has continued unabated in Hong Kong, where the stock market tanked earlier in the week and shares of premier brokerage Citic Securities (HKEx: 6030) stumbled badly in their first trading debut outside China. The Hong Kong board started off the week in free-fall, shedding 7.6 percent on Monday and Tuesday before staging a rally on Thursday. But it was still down 2.4 percent at the start of the Friday trading day, and the volatility clearly reflects investor angst over what will happen when trading resumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen next Monday, with more sell-offs likely. In the midst of the chaos, shares of Citic Securities (Shanghai: 600030), the first in a string of high-profile listings of major state-connected firms aimed at propping up the markets, stumbled out of the gate, losing as much as 10.5 percent from their IPO price on their first trading day before finishing the day unchanged, even as the broader market rallied 5.7 percent. (English article) The weak debut, which came after Citic Securities already scaled back the offering and priced its shares at the low end of their range, bodes poorly for a number of other major state-run firms lining up to go public, including Sany Heavy Industries (Shanghai: 600031), which is also planning a listing in Hong Kong, and China Communications Construction, which is planning a Shanghai listing. (previous post). Meantime, the weakness has led two premier Hong Kong-listed China Internet names, Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1668), to do the once unthinkable and actually buy back their shares (Tencent article; Alibaba article). They join a list of peers that has so far included many mid-sized US-listed China tech firms like Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and Renren (NYSE: RENN) but has yet to see the likes of top names like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) resort to such buy-backs. But if the current sell-off continues, we might even see these big names join the buy-back frenzy, showing just how low sentiment has sunk towards China plays, especially Internet stocks.

Bottom line: China’s stock markets will fall when trading resumes next week, extending sell-offs in Hong Kong and New York while Chinese markets were closed for the October 1 holiday.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Beijing IPO Campaign to Boost Markets Falls Flat 大宗IPO提振中国股市或成泡影

◙ China Offers Up Premier IPOs to Revive Markets 大企业沪港上市 政府借机重燃沪港生机

◙ CITIC Securities $2 Bln IPO Looks Good, With Potential to Jumpstart HK 中信证券香港IPO值得期待

CDC Kicks Off China Bankruptcy Parade 中华网打开赴美上市公司破产魔盒

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The confidence crisis in US-listed China stocks has claimed its latest victim in CDC Corp (Nasdaq: CHINA), the former high-flying software maker which filed for bankruptcy in the US on Wednesday as it struggled under the weight of a costly lawsuit. (Chinese article) Old-timers will recall that this company, formerly known as Chinadotcom, was one of China’s first US-listed web firms to go public more than a decade ago. That makes its current demise somewhat significant, though the company had faded from prominence for quite a while before this latest development. In an ironic twist, CDC’s ticker symbol is CHINA, symbolizing the broader downfall of many US-listed China stocks in recent months amid a crisis of confidence about their accounting. In CDC’s case, the crippling blow was a recent $65 million judgment against it resulting from a 2009 lawsuit from another company called Evolution CDC. (English article) There are no other details about the lawsuit, but based on the plaintiff’s name and fact that it was filed 2 years ago, this looks more like a disagreement between CDC and one of its vendors than a shareholder lawsuit like many of the ones we have seen in recent weeks against Chinese firms whose share prices have plunged on a steady stream of news about financial irregularities. CDC could nowl see similar shareholder suits coming its way, as its shares plunged more than 50 percent after it announced the bankruptcy filing. I checked the details on CDC’s major shareholders and was surprised to find such big names as CalPERS, the massive California pension fund, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) among them as of June, underscoring just how popular these companies had become among investors before their recent demise. I’m sure we’ll see more similar bankruptcy filings in the next year or two, as the steady stream of shareholder lawsuits now being lodged get resolved in the courts, many in shareholders’ favor. In the latest of those, a company named SinoTech Energy (Nasdaq: CTE) is facing a new class action lawsuit for allegedly including misleading information in its registration statement. (lawsuit announcement) Stay tuned for more such lawsuits, and subsequent bankruptcy filings, as the ongoing confidence crisis plays out over the next 2 years.

Bottom line: CDC Corp’s bankruptcy is the first but almost certainly not the last for US-listed Chinese firms, which are defending themselves against a raft of shareholder lawsuits.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US China Stocks: Bloodbath Becomes Correction 在美上市中资股遭抛售 迈入股价修正新阶段

◙ US-Listed China Firms Fight Back — Finally 中国赴美上市公司最终还击

◙ Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

Yum China: Little Sheep Getting Tangled in Trade Friction? 百盛收购小肥羊案卷入中美贸易摩擦？

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The latest quarterly results from Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) are once again all about China, with strong performance from that market salvaging an otherwise dismal period for the operator of the KFC and Pizza Hut chains. But for followers of this company, what’s equally interesting in Yum’s quarterly results announcement is what’s NOT included, namely any mention of its pending purchase of leading Chinese hot pot chain Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), which is still awaiting regulatory approval nearly 6 months after the deal was first announced. First a look at the third quarter numbers, which showed that Yum’s China business boomed in just about every way, even as operating profit in its home US market slipped 16 percent. (company announcement) Yum’s China revenue leaped 35 percent, while its China same-store sales and operating profit rose 19 percent and 7 percent, respectively. The only negative China figure in the results was store margins, which slipped to 21.3  percent this year from 25.2 percent in 2010 as inflation in China took a toll. But amid all those rosy figures, there was no mention at all of Yum’s pending $500 million acquisition of Little Sheep, a relatively straightforward deal which the company first announced in April but still hasn’t received regulatory approval. (previous post) Yum provided a brief update of sorts on the deal in its last quarterly results by mentioning it had set aside funds for the purchase, seeming to indicate it still believed the deal would get regulatory approval. (previous post) It’s hard to read too much into the failure to mention the deal in its latest results announcement, as perhaps there’s just nothing new to add. The most recent US-China trade frictions that have seen the US Senate approve a bill to punish China for currency manipulation could add an interesting twist to this deal. Beijing’s approval of the Little Sheep deal now would send a strong message that it’s committed to fair trade, and could help dispel some of the anti-China rhetoric on Capitol Hill. Still, one never knows with China, and the regulator could also choose to veto the deal in an angry response to the US Senate’s move, which would only heighten tensions. I honestly think the latter is less likely to happen as China has traditionally tried to defuse this kind of friction. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Little Sheep deal finally approved in the next month as a goodwill gesture aimed at mollifying tensions.

Bottom line: China is likely to finally approve Yum Brands’ pending purchase of the Little Sheep hot pot chain in the next month to try to diffuse trade tensions with the US.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Yum Feasts on China, Still Eying Little Sheep 百胜依然觊觎小肥羊

◙ China’s Heavy Hand Leaves Investors Wary on YUM’s Little Sheep Buy 百胜难吞小肥羊

◙  YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

China Mobile Shuffle: Sea Change Coming? 中移动高层变动或引发重大变化？

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There’s been a flurry of noise this week from both the boardroom and from shareholders of China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), in the latest signs that long-serving conservative Chairman Wang Jianzhou will soon retire to bring in younger blood and new ideas. What’s most interesting here is that shareholders are taking advantage of the situation to make their case for bigger dividends from cash-rich China Mobile, as well as a more aggressive M&A policy — both of which could help to boost the company’s stagnant shares if the new top managers take notice. Domestic media are reporting that China Mobile’s state-run parent has just formed a new 9-member board, which includes Wang as chairman and his two heirs-apparent, Xi Guohua and Li Yue, as board members, along with 5 outside directors. (Chinese article) The inclusion of Wang’s two successors, along with so many outside directors, is the latest indication that Beijing is looking to bring some new ideas to China Mobile after the departure of Wang, whose 5 years at the top of the company saw it consolidate its market-leading position but do little else to expand its business. Investors, sensing that change is coming soon, have suddenly started clamoring for China Mobile, which has a cash pot of $50 billion, to use that money to pay out more dividends and assume a more aggressive global M&A policy. (Chinese article) Investors have made similar calls from time to time over the years, but most of those have failed to sway Wang, who seems to come from the old school that believes you can never save enough cash. Xi and Li both come from technical backgrounds and don’t really look like a bold new generation of leaders that China Mobile really needs to bring back some excitement to the company. But that said, they certainly can’t be more conservative than Wang, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the company boost its dividend payout ratio and also pursue some interesting global M&A once Wang retires, which could happen by the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new leaders are likely to return more cash to investors and pursue a more aggressive M&A strategy after the company’s current conservative chairman retires.

本周不断传来关於中国移动<0941.HK; CHL.N>董事会和股东们的消息，最新迹象显示中移动董事长王建宙或很快退休，让位给新人，也为公司带来新的思路。最有趣的是，中移动的股东们正借此希望谋求更多红利以及希望公司实行更积极的并购政策。如果新管理层对此买账，这将有助於提振公司表现不佳的股价。国内媒体近日报导称，中移动母公司成立了由九位成员组成的董事会，其中包括该公司董事长王建宙、副董事长奚国华和董事兼总经理李跃，还有另外五名外部董事。将王建宙的两名接班人及如此众多的外部董事纳入董事会的举动也再次说明，中国政府正考虑在王建宙离任後为中移动带来新鲜血液。在王建宙任职期间，中移动强化了其市场领头羊地位，但在扩大业务方面几无建树。嗅到这种变动气息的投资者们突然开始纷纷要求中移动将持有的500亿美元现金返还给投资者，以及寻求收购资产。投资者们过去几年不时提出过类似要求，但多数未能动摇王建宙。王建宙似乎比较保守，认为现金再多也不为过。奚国华和李跃均为工科背景，似乎也不属於那种作风大胆的新一代领导人，但他们肯定也不会比王建宙更保守。一旦王建宙退休，如果中移动开始提高股息派发率且进行一些有趣的全球并购，我不会感到意外。

一句话：中移动的新领导很可能在现任董事长王建宙退休後，向投资者返还更多资金，并实行更积极的并购策略。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

◙ China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

US Congress Turns Up Heat in China Solar Debate

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There aren’t many things that US Republicans and Democrats can agree upon, but one of the few issues that seems to be uniting them in Washington these last few weeks is China bashing. In this particular case, both parties are strongly denouncing Chinese solar energy manufacturers, blaming their strong support from Beijing for an unfair advantage that has bankrupt many US solar panel makers in recent months. (English article) I previous predicted such China bashing would be coming after the US House of Representatives opened a hearing earlier this month into a $528 government-backed loan given to now-bankrupt US solar firm Solyndra. (previous post) But while I predicted we would see lots of anti-China talk, I failed foresee that the Democrats would unite with Republicans in the debate, making the likelihood of actual punitive measures more likely in this year before the big 2012 presidential elections. Now it looks like the House will call on the Obama administration to take this case to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which could easily rule against China due to Beijing’s huge support for its solar sector in the form of a wide range of preferential treatments for these firms. While such a complaint could take several years to resolve, the US lawmakers could also turn to the US-based International Trade Commission (ITC), which has the power to immediately issue punitive tariffs if it feels there is a strong case of unfair trade practices. Ironically, all the anti-China talk comes as Suntech (NYSE: STP), one of China’s leading solar players, has just announced a relatively big deal to supply 35 megawatts of capacity to two California projects. (company announcement) If the anti-China rhetoric continues on Capitol Hill and eventually turns into action at the WTO or ITC, this sale for Suntech could be one of the last ones from China to the US that we’ll see for a while. Of course, US solar energy producers might not have a lot of other choices by then, as most US panel makers are either on the brink of bankruptcy or already out of business.

Bottom line: US Congressional rhetoric against Chinese solar panel makers is showing signs of turning into concrete action in the form of punitive tariffs.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tech, Environmental Issues Cast New Clouds Over Solar Firms

◙ US Solar Probe: Get Ready for China Bashing 美国太阳能调查：炮轰中国大潮的前奏

◙ US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

 

US China Stocks: Bloodbath Becomes Correction 在美上市中资股遭抛售 迈入股价修正新阶段

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The sell-off of US-listed China stocks accelerated on Thursday, with shares of premier names Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) each dropping around 10 percent after US media quoted a securities regulator saying his agency was looking into accounting fraud by US-listed Chinese firms. (English article) But after months of negative news and selling of these stocks, I’m convinced this sell-off is moving into a new phase that marks a long-awaited correction in unrealistic valuations for many of these companies during a massive run-up in their prices over the last few years fueled by China Internet hype. A closer look at the market will show that the Thursday sell-off was hardly broad-based but rather was largely limited to companies with overinflated valuations. Even after a sell-off that has seen its shares drop more than 30 percent in the last 3 of weeks, Sina shares still trade at a ridiculously high price-to-earnings ratio of 115 times earnings for the next 12 months. Baidu shares, which have lost a similar amount over the same period, now trade at a more reasonable but still high PE of 42. By comparison, online travel leader Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and leading social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) both saw their shares actually gain on Wall Street on Thursday, as each announced a share buyback plan of $100 million and $150 million, respectively. (Ctrip announcement; Renren announcement) Perhaps these buy-back announcements helped to protect Ctrip and Renren’s shares to some extent in yesterday’s sell-off; but more importantly, Ctrip now has a more modest valuation of 30 times earnings for the next 12 months, while Renren’s PE is negative as it’s still losing money. All that said, I think it’s highly unlikely that these bigger, industry leaders are the focus of regulatory investigations, which are mostly reserved for the smaller US-listed China firms without big-name accountants. Instead, this continued sell-off looks like it has turned into a much needed correction for overhyped Chinese stocks, which will continue until their valuations come down to more reasonable levels.

Bottom line: Investors who profited from a run-up in US-listed Chinese stocks over the last few years are seizing on a confidence crisis to pocket their gains.

在美上市中资股周四再遭抛售。美国媒体引述美国证券交易委员会一位官员的话表示，司法部正在调查一些在美国股票交易所挂牌的中资企业财务违规问题。受此影响，百度<BIDU.O>、新浪<SINA.O>等双双大跌约10%。不过，经过数月来的负面消息与相关股票的抛售，我认为中资股抛售正进入新阶段，开始修正过去几年来对这些企业逐渐形成的不现实估值。细看市场表现，你会发现周四中资股并非全面遭遇抛售，主要局限於估值过高企业。过去三周新浪股价虽已大跌超30%，但其未来12个月动态市盈率仍高达115倍。百度股价同期跌幅与新浪几乎相当，目前其市盈率为42倍，相对合理一些，但仍非常高。相比之下，中国国内领先的携程旅行网<CTRP.O>与社交网络人人网<RENN.N>周四实际逆势上扬。两公司均宣布股票回购计划，规模分别为1亿美元与1.5亿，也许回购计划在一定程度上帮助两公司股票在昨天的抛售中免遭一劫。但更重要的是，携程未来12个月动态市盈率为30倍，人人网由於仍在亏损，市盈率为负值。虽然如此，我认为这些行业领头羊不大可能是此次监管调查的焦点，调查重点可能主要集中在所用会计企业不太知名的、在美上市较小中资企业。此次继续抛售看起来正转变为中国概念股的修正，相关企业估值回到合理水平前，股价修正还会继续。

一句话：过去几年中利用在美上市中资股获利的投资者正抓住此次信任危机售股套现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US-Listed China Firms Fight Back — Finally 中国赴美上市公司最终还击

◙ Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim