China Auto Wins 2012 Race For 1st US IPO 神州租车抢先成首个赴美IPO的中国企业

It’s official: the year for New York IPOs of Chinese firms has formally begun, and the first company out of the gate for 2012 is an unlikely candidate in the form of a rental car company with the rather boring name of China Auto. The company made its formal first public filing on Thursday in the United States for a New York initial public offering to raise up to $300 million, a respectable figure for a sector that has been dogged for nearly a year now by a series of accounting scandals that have hammered US-listed China stocks. (English article; Chinese article) China Auto included a wide range of data in its first public filing, but most of it was detailed information about its core car rental business and no mention was made of whether or not it is profitable. My guess would be that the company does indeed earn a profit, as any loss-making company would be foolish to try its luck as the first new Chinese company to list in New York this year in the highly skeptical climate towards such stocks. The year 2011 was one that most US-listed Chinese firms would rather forget, characterized by a series of accounting scandals that saw many companies plunge in value, often by 50 percent or more. Recent signs have emerged that the worst of the sell-off may be past (previous post), though the true test will come with the first new IPO by a Chinese company in the new year. Based on this initial filing, that company could well be China Auto. Significantly, China Auto comes from the auto rental space, making it a much more conventional company that investors can better understand, unlike the high-tech and Internet firms that make up the big majority of the largest US-listed China firms. China raced past the US to become the world’s largest auto market in 2010, as economic incentives from Beijing boosted demand from millions of new Chinese yuppies during the global downturn. Most of those incentives have now ended, causing sales to slow considerably, perhaps providing a golden opportunity for the car rental business that caters to people who would rather rent than own a car. I’ll need to see some more financials — specifically how profitable or loss-making China Auto is — before making a sharper prediction on how its IPO will fare if it goes forward. But given the preliminary data and broader market conditions, I would say the offering should attract moderate interest from investors and should help restore some confidence to the battered sector.

Bottom line: China Auto is likely to see moderate success from its pending US listing, helping to restore some confidence to the battered sector of US-listed China stocks.

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Cleanup Resumes, Facebook Sniffs Out China Investors 在美上市的中国企业将继续面临“大清洗”

Xunlei, Muddy Waters Sound Upbeat Notes 迅雷和Muddy Waters保持谨慎乐观

2011 Limps Out With Haitong IPO Withdrawal 海通证券推迟IPO 2011以市场疲弱状态落幕

AmEx Chases E-Payments With Lianlian Link 美国运通联手中国连连集团

It’s not often that I get to write about new initiatives by big foreign banks in China these days, so I’m taking this opportunity to take a quick look at a new and potentially intriguing deal involving American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Lianlian, a Chinese firm that helps mobile users add money to their accounts. Followers of big global banks like Citibank (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Royal Bank of Scotland (London: RBS) know that most of those names have spent the last few years trying to salvage their core operations at home, following the global financial crisis that saw most nearly driven to insolvency and only surviving with massive government bailouts. Against that backdrop, the only major activity we’ve seen from those banks in China in the last 3 years has been their sale of early stakes they took in China’s big 4 banks before they went public, with Bank of America and RBS both selling such stakes to raise cash. (previous post) Amid all the selling, American Express has been one of the few big foreign names to actually retain its share in a big Chinese bank, in this case holding on to a relatively small stake in ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), China’s largest bank. Now AmEx says it is investing in Lianlian Group, a Chinese e-payments company founded in 2004 — making it a relatively mature 8 years old in this interesting and fast evolving space. (company announcement) AmEx isn’t saying how much it’s investing, and is careful to point out it has invested in an offshore unit of Lianlian, as China is still quite sensitive about direct foreign investments in the e-payments sector. The investment also looks like part of a broader tie-up that will see Lianlian use AmEx technology, specifically licensing an e-payment platform developed by the US financial services giant. I’ll admit this is the first time I’ve heard of Lianlian, which, according to the announcement, serves 300 million mobile users by offering services for them to add money to their accounts through a network of 300,000 agents across China. Those numbers are surely exaggerated somewhat, but even if the true figures are only half as big this certainly looks like a company to watch. Its combination of relatively long history, broad penetration and now this tie-up with AmEx seem to point to a name with strong prospects in a fast-growing area, with potential for an interesting IPO in the financial services space in the next 2 years.

Bottom line: E-payments firm Lianlian looks like a company to watch, following a new tie-up that includes a technology agreement and equity investment by American Express.

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Foreign Banks in China: A Love Affair Ends 外资银行撤资与中国同行说再见

Bank of China Considers Offshore I-Banking 中国银行考虑收购RBS投行资产

CITIC Securities, Koreans Challenge Western Giants 中信证券和韩国电视台挑战西方企业

Yang Departure Cuts Final Yahoo-Alibaba Ties 雅虎即将与阿里撇清关系

If Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) was looking for a way to tell the world that its troubled relationship with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group was nearing an end, then the just-announced resignation of Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang from all his posts at both companies looks like the perfect and very appropriate signal. Yang’s resignation means he will relinquish his positions as a director on the boards of both Yahoo and Alibaba, marking a quiet end to a stormy chapter in both companies’ history. (English article) Yang and Alibaba founder Jack Ma made headlines in 2005 when they announced that Yahoo would buy 40 percent of Alibaba for $1 billion to create a potent partnership that would combine Alibaba’s expertise in e-commerce with Yahoo’s in online search. But it soon became clear that Jack Ma was more interested in Yahoo’s money than anything Yang or his company had to offer in terms of advice — a reality that was fine with both sides as Yang focused on trying to rebuild Yahoo’s core US-focused business as it rapidly lost share to a more nimble Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). All that changed when Yang resigned as Yahoo CEO and yielded the job to Carol Bartz, an executive whose aggressive style clashed with Ma’s own similar style and led to a prolonged period of tense relations between the 2 companies. Through all of that, Yang, who remained as a non-executive board member of Yahoo, continued to maintain personal ties with Alibaba, getting invitations and often attending the Chinese company’s Alifest big annual conference in its hometown of Hangzhou. Yang’s resignation from both the Alibaba and Yahoo boards comes just 2 weeks after Yahoo named Scott Thompson as its new CEO, filling the position that has been vacant since Bartz was fired last year. I suspect the departure was a condition when Thompson agreed to take the job, aimed at giving him a clear mandate to run the company with a fresh start. Alibaba and its bankers have been sending a nonstop series of signals to the market that they have raised enough money to buy out Yahoo’s 40 percent Alibaba stake, and Yang’s departure should remove the final reminder of the forces behind the original tie-up that can let this much-needed divorce finally go forward. When that happens, which could be in the next 2 months, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Yang suddenly appear in Alibaba, either as an investor or perhaps even an executive in one of the company’s units.

Bottom line: Jerry Yang’s resignation from the boards of Yahoo and Alibaba signal a pending divorce of the 2 companies, which could see Yang ultimately end up as an investor or executive at Alibaba.

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Yahoo, Alibaba Dance Nears Finale  雅虎应与阿里巴巴撇清干系

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Disney Bets on China Thirst for Luxury 迪士尼押注中国名品市场

China’s thirst for luxury goods is a well established fact, with sales soaring for big brands like Louis Vuitton and Burberry in recent years as Chinese consumers eagerly spend thousands of dollars for the latest status symbol. But the taste for luxury for more everyday items is far less established — a reality that Disney (NYSE: DIS) will have to contend with as it embarks on an ambitious plan to open up to 40 of its recently developed Disney-brand stores in China over the next 3 years. (English article) Western firms have a very strong track record in China at the top-end of the luxury goods market, but things are decidedly more mixed at the middle-end where Disney will try to sell items like pricey clothing bearing Mickey and Minnie Mouse, and similarly expensive stuffed toys. Rival toymaker Mattel (NYSE: MAT) suffered an embarrassing setback in China last year when it shuttered its biggest House of Barbie in Shanghai, amid talk that Chinese were unwilling to shell out big bucks for the expensive toys and other kid-oriented services it was selling. (previous post) Likewise, Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), the world’s biggest electronics retailer, shuttered its own-brand stores in China last year after realizing consumers weren’t willing to pay a premium for its products in exchange for its big name and better service. (previous post) On the other hand, Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) has found big success in China, using its premium image to get local yuppies to pay for lattes and cappuccinos that often cost twice as much as an entire meal at ordinary restaurants. Disney has a number of advantages over companies like Mattel, Best Buy and even Starbucks, in that its name is far more recognized in China than any of those other brands in China, with more than 20 years of history. Furthermore, this retail initiative is part of Disney’s much broader multi-faceted approach in China, which also includes selling its traditional TV shows and movies, licensing merchandise, opening Disney-branded English language schools and plans for a Disneyland in Shanghai. The big question is whether parents will be willing to pay such a large premium for toys and other Disney store merchandise for their kids, who are unlikely to notice the difference from lower-priced goods. But given Disney’s big name and popularity in China, I would say its new store initiative stands a good chance of success.

Bottom line: Disney’s new store initiative in China stands a good chance of success, drawing on the company’s strong brand awareness and premium image.

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Shanghai Support to Provide Welcome Tonic for Disney

Starbucks Goes Downmarket in China Drive 星巴克在华开拓低端市场

Welcome to the China Dollhouse: Barbie Packs Up Shanghai Camper

Ku6-YouTube Tie-Up: China Hype Alive and Well 酷6网和YouTube合作恐难成正果

I want to start today with a silly story that shows that despite the recent confidence crisis for US-listed Chinese stocks, anyone with a good China story to tell can still earn a fast buck on Wall Street. The story I’m referring to involves battered video sharing site Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV), which has announced a tie-up with YouTube that will see the global giant start a new channel to bring Ku6’s content to a global audience. (company announcement; Chinese article) The announcement contains no additional details, but that didn’t stop investors from getting excited enough over a good China story to boost Ku6’s Nasdaq-listed shares by a whopping 140 percent on Tuesday. Cynics like myself will note that even with the jump, Ku6 shares are still at less than half of their highs from last May, when a broader sell-off began for US-listed China stocks due to a series of accounting scandals. Let’s sit back and think about this new deal for a minute. Sure, YouTube is a huge name in online video and there are certainly plenty of people outside China who might be interested in watching more China-generated content. But nowhere in Ku6’s announcement is there any mention of exclusivity, and if this tie-up is even remotely successful I suspect YouTube will quickly start looking for more China partners with bigger content libraries, such as Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), which undoubtedly would be happy to enter into such alliances. What’s more, Ku6 is a company with a bit of an identity crisis, having undergone a number of major changes in its management and strategic direction over the past year at the instigation of its fickle controlling shareholder, Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA). In fact, I strongly suspect this new announcement is the work of Shanda founder and chairman Chen Tianqiao, who has proven himself a master at making headlines that sounds exciting but mostly lack substance. At the end of the day, I seriously doubt this new tie-up will rescue Ku6, although it could theoretically become a more attractive takeover target for one of its larger rivals. At the end of the day, all this just shows that western investors will always love a good China story, regardless of how much substance it has — or lacks.

Bottom line: A new tie-up between Ku6 and YouTube will bring minimal benefits to Ku6, but a huge jump  in Ku6 stock shows that western investors will always love an good China story.

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Ku6 Media Bulks Up, Heats Up Online Video 酷6扩张版图

Ku6 Media CEO Falls Victim to Whimsical Ways of Shanda’s Chen

Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

Markets: HK Huddles, Int’l Board Balks 赴港上市仍障碍重重 上海国际板推出再度押後

There are a couple of interesting stories out today on stock markets that specialize in China listings, one pointing to a potential surge in new offerings in Hong Kong while the other suggesting a long-delayed international board being set up in Shanghai won’t be launching anytime soon. Let’s start with the Hong Kong development, which is the more interesting of the two. Media are quoting a Chinese securities regulator saying his agency wants to streamline the process for Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong, a move aimed at helping smaller entrepreneurial companies to raise funds. (English article) On the surface this move looks interesting, as such companies do lack access to funds and are usually low on the domestic IPO list, where preference usually goes to former state-run companies with strong government ties. This kind of move by the regulator also looks like it could steal business from the New York stock markets, where the vehicle used by most Chinese companies to list is coming under scrutiny after a recent series of accounting scandals. There are 2 big problems with these assumptions. Perhaps most important, Hong Kong requires all companies that list on its main board to report at least 3 years of profits — a requirement that most US-listed Chinese firms would have failed at the time of their IPOs and a requirement that will make it hard for many smaller entrepreneurial firms to list in Hong Kong. Secondly, Hong Kong tends to be very conservative in terms of which listings it approves, meaning it is unlikely to approve many smaller, riskier companies that might become eligible for Hong Kong IPOs even if the Chinese regulator relaxes its rules. Moving on to the second topic, Shanghai’s highly anticipated but long delayed international board, the story is quite straightforward: investors shouldn’t expect anything anytime soon. Media are quoting Shanghai’s mayor saying the timing isn’t right for the launch of such a board, even though the Shanghai stock exchange said 2 months ago all preparations were ready. (English article) In this case the reason for this latest delay is obvious: China’s 2 main stock exchanges are both extremely weak right now, and officials won’t launch a new board that could drain further money from the domestic exchanges until things show signs of improving. If that’s the case, the international board’s launch could be delayed indefinitely and may not even occur this year at all, as China’s domestic markets show no signs of improving anytime soon.

Bottom line: Plans to let more Chinese firms list in Hong Kong are likely to have little or no impact, while launch of an international board in Shanghai could be delayed until late 2012 or even 2013.

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Year End Brings Problematic New IPO Wave 中国新一波IPO潮或无法达预期效果

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Jishi the Latest in Low-Key Media Listing Parade 吉视传媒加入中国媒体低调上市大军

Huawei Discovers Cellphones 华为手机要向世界前三进军

Huawei Technologies, one of China’s most successful exporters but also one of its most frustrated, is following in the footsteps of crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063) in discovering cellphones, a far less controversial product than its traditional networking equipment business. The move looks like a smart one for Huawei, even if the company is a little late coming to this product area, with many interesting implications. Chinese media are quoting an executive saying Huawei is aiming to become one of the world’s top 3 cellphone makers within the next 5 years — a big order for a company that is currently just a minor player but certainly not impossible for one with Huawei’s vast resources. (Chinese article) Equally significant was where the executive made his remarks, namely at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) last week in Las Vegas, the world’s largest consumer electronics show that Huawei was attending for the first time. The new push will add an interesting new competitor to the market, posing a challenge not only for domestic rivals like ZTE and Lenovo (HKEx: 992), but also for foreign companies like Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) and even faded global leader Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V). Huawei is no doubt finally realizing that cellphones are far less sensitive as a product than its core telecoms equipment business, which is showing signs of quickly slowing amid resistance in western markets like the US, where security is a concern (previous post), and even in India, where a corruption scandal has brought the industry to a standstill. (previous post) As a product area, cellphones are also far less cyclical than traditional networking equipment, whose sales tend to spike when new technologies like 4G or wi-fi come out, but then subside afterwards. Lastly and perhaps most interesting, the development of a strong cellphone business could provide Huawei with an opportunity for something that’s been talked about for years but has never happened, namely a Huawei IPO. Huawei tried to sell of its cellphone business several years ago but failed after it didn’t get the price it wanted. But that business was very small at the time, making it not very attractive to outside buyers. If it was one of the world’s top 3 players, on the other hand, it would certainly become a much more attractive candidate for an international IPO, finally giving investors a chance to buy into this interesting buy controversial company.

Bottom line: Huawei’s new drive into cellphones could create a major new global player in a short time, with a potential IPO for the unit in the next 5 years if the drive is successful.

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Huawei Puts Brakes on India Drive 华为印度建厂计划推迟

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ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

Google, Apple OS Rivalry Intensifies 苹果与谷歌在华智能手机战白热化

The intense rivalry between Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is heating up in China, with the former hosting a somewhat unruly launch of its latest iPhone 4S in Beijing and Shanghai as the latter prepares to launch an app store for competing smartphones using its Android operating system. Apple made headlines in China over the weekend after scuffles broke out at some of its stores when the iPhone 4S formally went on sale the day before under service contracts with China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), China’s second biggest mobile carrier and Apple’s only iPhone partner in China so far. The biggest scuffle occurred when one Beijing store decide not to open due to safety concerns after large crowds lined up overnight to buy the phones as soon as they went on sale. (English article) Such news certainly isn’t great publicity for Apple and could provide some negative impact in the short term. But it also shows just how popular Apple products are in China, since the launch was still able to generate that much buzz even though the 4S was already available on the gray market following its US launch 3 months ago. That fact bodes well for China Telecom (HKEx: 728), China’s smallest mobile carrier, which is also reportedly near its own deal to offer the iPhone 4S on its 3G network and could hold launch the model as soon as next month. (previous post) Meantime, Chinese media are reporting that Google is preparing to launch a mainland Chinese version of its app store for Android phones, which would come just 2 months after Apple made a similar move by starting to accept payments in local currency, the renminbi, for its own China app store. (English article) Of course all this just shows the war between Apple and Google in the smartphone space will only intensify in the Year of the Dragon, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former sue the latter in China later this year as part of its global strategy of fighting Android through litigation.

Bottom line: The smartphone war between Apple and Google is heating up in China with new products from both, and could see Apple launch China-based lawsuits targeting Google’s Android later this year.

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Apple Suffers Setback in China Lawsuit Loss 苹果在华商标侵权案初尝苦果

Unicom, China Telecom in iPhone 4S 中国电信有望领先推出iPhone 4S Race

Apple Overlooks China — Again 苹果再次撇开中国内地市场

Xunlei, Muddy Waters Sound Upbeat Notes 迅雷和Muddy Waters保持谨慎乐观

It’s the new year, and that means a time for new beginnings — or at least that’s what video sharing site Xunlei and infamous short-seller Muddy Waters are saying, as both sound notes of cautious optimism that the worst of the confidence crisis for US-listed Chinese stocks may be past. Let’s start with Xunlei, China’s seventh largest online video site, which is reportedly preparing to relaunch plans for a US initial public offering that it initially aimed to make last year. (English article) Readers will recall that Xunlei had planned to raise up to $200 million when it first announced its IPO plans last July, only to steadily scale back those plans as market sentiment plummeted due to a series of accounting scandals at US-listed Chinese companies. (previous post) It ultimately shelved the IPO, but has now completed preparations to restart the process, a company official said, without being more specific. Meantime, Carson Block, whose Muddy Waters research firm was behind several high-profile short selling attacks that helped to start the confidence crisis, is changing his tone slightly and saying he may actually buy some of the Chinese stocks whose shares took a beating last year. (English article; Chinese article) Block is still being quite cautious, saying only investors with the resources to conduct their own independent research should consider buying Chinese stocks at this point, implying we may still see yet another accounting scandal or 2 emerge before this latest confidence crisis ends, which I expect will be around the middle of this year. But the fact that he would even consider buying some of these companies — many of whose shares fell by half or more last year — indicates he thinks that valuations are probably in a more reasonable range now than they were a year ago. Industry watchers will no doubt be looking closely at Xunlei if it moves ahead with its IPO plan, as investor response could set the tone for the rest of the year, especially if the IPO is even moderately successful. I would expect Xunlei to move forward and take steps to keep expectations relatively low, with the result that it should be able to see modest success with an offering that will probably raise around $100 million in the first quarter.

Bottom line: Recent signals from Muddy Waters and Xunlei indicate the confidence crisis toward US-listed China stocks may be easing, with a sustained recovery likely in the second half of 2012.

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Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

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Short Sellers Target China in Year End Assault 做空抛盘年底将矛头对准在美上市中国企业

Search Blocking Wars Expand to Video 搜索屏蔽战蔓延至在线视频业

The search-blocking wars that gripped the e-commerce sector in the second half of last year have spread to the online video space, where Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) video, the second and third largest operators, have blocked their content from a video search engine operated by top player Youku (NYSE: YOKU). (English article) Of course the biggest loser in this latest blockage battle will be the Chinese consumer, who will find it difficult to find the movies and TV shows he wants to view, which will also hurt the broader industry’s development. Let’s backtrack a moment and look at this latest development in a vibrant but perplexing industry where company behavior more often resembles children fighting in a sandlot than major corporations trying to do business. According to Chinese media reports citing a Tudou representative, Tudou and Sohu video, along with another major video site operator LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104), all decided to block their content from searches by Soku, an online video search engine operated by Yoku. The move comes as Tudou and Youku are embroiled in a series of lawsuits over copyright infringement (previous post), and just as the online video sector has started to sign a series of ground-breaking deals to legally license popular TV shows and movies as they try to wean themselves from the pirated content that was traditionally the main attraction on their sites. Youku announced the latest such deal just yesterday in a new tie-up with Twentieth Century Fox (Nasdaq: NWSA) (company announcement); but this latest spat will surely overshadow that news. In fact, moves like this could ultimately threaten future licensing deals, as this kind of blockage will ultimately make it more difficult for consumers to find the programs they want to watch online, putting a serious damper on the industry’s development. This latest development also comes as Chinese regulators consider restricting the amount of advertising that online video sites can put in their programs, potentially dealing another big blow. (previous post) From a broader perspective, these kind of developments don’t bode well for online video in 2012, and could even delay the money-losing industry’s march to long-term profitability.

Bottom line: A new search blocking war in the online video industry will hamper its development and, along with other negative developments, delay a transition to long-term profitability.

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Tudou, Youku: China’s New Piracy Police  土豆和优酷:中国打击盗版的民间警察

2011: A Breakthrough Year in Copyright Protection 2011年:中国版权保护取得突破的一年

Search Wars Heat Up With Latest Anti-Baidu Moves 中国网络搜索战升温

Huawei Puts Brakes on India Drive 华为印度建厂计划推迟

Telecoms equipment maker Huawei Technologies, which hit numerous roadblocks ast year in its drive to enter the US, has hit another obstacle in the fast developing and important India market as well, indefinitely postponing plans to build a major factory there. (Chinese article) The decision comes a couple of years after a major flare-up between China and India that saw the latter ban the import of telecoms equipment from both Huawei and Chinese rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) for several months over security concerns. This latest move by Huawei, which probably would have involved an investment of $100 million or more, looks more related to a series of government corruption scandals that has gripped India’s telecoms industry in the last year, paralyzing new development. Reports in the Chinese media cite a Huawei official saying the new plant was designed to localize more of the company’s production and also address some of India’s security concerns, but that recent sputtering demand in light of the industry’s paralysis has made such new investment unnecessary. That kind of explanation is probably true, but also means that both Huawei and ZTE will take a hit in their India business this year, which is one of their most important Asian markets. It also shows that Huawei and ZTE will continue to face numerous obstacles as they try to expand in overseas markets, where concerns run high that their equipment may contain security loopholes designed for Beijing to use for spying purposes. Huawei has met with repeated resistance in the US due to such concerns, and with the presidential election coming there this year I wouldn’t expect the company to make its first major deal in the market until 2013 at the earliest. That reality, combined with the latest problems in India and weakening demand in Europe as it struggles with its ongoing debt crisis, means that 2012 could be a bleak year for both Huawei and ZTE in terms of telecoms equipment sales, with no relief in sight until 2013 at the earliest.

Bottom line: Huawei’s plans to delay construction of a major new factory in India reflects recent difficulty in the important market, and augers a difficult year for the company in 2012.

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Huawei Undermines US Push With Foolish Request 华为讨要说法很不明智唯有阻碍进军美国市场