I’m hardly a fortune teller, but the recent negative media blitz aimed at Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and its billionaire founder Robin Li can’t be a good sign for China’s leading Internet search engine. The campaign has been nearly nonstop these last few weeks, with media criticizing both Baidu and  Li for unfairly exploiting the works of authors and musicians to enrich himself and add to his already-bulging money pot. (Chinese article) Even the government has stepped in, calling on Baidu to revamp its online literature business to address the grievances. (English article) Baidu and Li have embarked on their own counteroffensive, apologizing repeatedly and saying they plan to address the issue that highlights the growing gap between China’s new wealthy and much poorer ordinary people. Similar campaigns have brought down other business tycoons, including Huang Guangyu, founder of electronics retail giant GOME, who is now in prison for various financial crimes. I doubt Li will see such a drastic turn of fate, but he could face some serious time for “self examination” in the national spotlight in the months ahead.

Bottom line: The recent negative publicity blitz against Baidu and its founder Robin Li will create difficult times for both in the months ahead.

我不会算命，但最近有关百度<BIDU.O>及其创始人李彦宏的负面新闻，对於中国互联网搜索引擎市场的这一龙头企业来说可不是一个好兆头。最近几周，有关百度和李彦宏剥削作家和音乐人以牟利的负面新闻一直不绝于耳。甚至政府都介入了，要求百度整改文库经营模式，以平民愤。百度和李彦宏则做出回应，反复道歉，表示打算解决这个问题。包括国美创始人黄光裕在内的一些商业巨子，就曾在媒体攻势中倒下。虽然估计李彦宏不会有此下场，但未来几个月，他或许得在全国人民的注视下做出一番艰难的“自我检查”。

一句话：近期的负面新闻会让百度和李彦宏接下来几个月的日子不好过。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu: Tidbits But Still No Search Alternatives 百度：干扰不断

◙ Baidu-Powered Cellphones? I Don’t Think So 百度也想做手机？恐怕没戏

◙ Sinopec Scandal Points to Big Oil Crackdown 中石化：“天价酒”事件实为敲山震虎？

UPDATE: Just a day after I wrote this, Chinese media are reporting that Tencent was just awarded a paltry 400,000 yuan in this case. (Chinese article) It seems the Chinese courts are as fast as they are ineffective!

I previously advised investors to avoid the March IPO by security software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), saying the company and its founder Zhou Hongwei were lightning rods for lawsuits, attracting such unwanted attention from the likes of Tencent (HKEx: 700), Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Alibaba Group. (previous post) Well, I may have to modify my advice, after seeing Tencent’s recently filed lawsuit stemming from a high profile spat last year in which Qihoo effectively hijacked one of Tencent’s most popular programs. According to Chinese media, Tencent’s recently filed suit is asking for ridiculously small damages of 4 million yuan, or about $600,000, and for a Qihoo apology. (Chinese article) Presumably Tencent is asking for such a paltry amount because that’s the most it believes it can get under China’s impotent legal system. If that’s the case, which it seems to be, then Qihoo may have more to fear from negative publicity than from any real monetary threat even if it loses all the lawsuits against it. Investors seem to realize this too, with Qihoo’s stock jumping 25 percent in just the last two weeks after an initial post-IPO sell-off.

Bottom line: Qihoo remains a dangerous bet due to its reputation for questionable business practices, but faces little monetary danger from lawsuits against it in Chinese courts.

更新：我登了这篇文章后，在过一天中国媒体报道了法院在这个案子上判定奇虎要赔偿腾讯40万元。（中文报道）看来中国法院的速度与他的无效率是差不多的！

我以前建议过投资者回避奇虎360<QIHU.N>在3月份的IPO，因为这家公司和其创始人周鸿祎招惹了腾讯<0700.HK>、百度<BIDU.O>和阿里巴巴等公司，会扯上官司。现在，在看到腾讯近期就去年“3Q大战”提起的诉讼，我可能要修正我的建议。从中国媒体得知，腾讯提出的赔偿数额出奇地少，只有400万人民币，并要求奇虎道歉。腾讯胃口这麽小的原因可能是，他们知道在中国现行的法律体系下，最多只能得到这麽多。如果是这样，那麽即使奇虎输了所有的官司，他们要担心的不过是负面公众形象，并不用太担心金钱损失。投资者可能也意识到了这一点。奇虎仅最近两周股价就已上涨25%。

一句话：考虑到奇虎一直以来与问题经营瓜葛不断的声誉，奇虎依然是比较危险的投资目标，但奇虎在中国的官司不会让其蒙受太多金钱损失。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Qihoo: A Strange Tiger, Indeed 奇虎：真的是头怪虎！

◙ Qihoo: More Controversy from the Year’s Hot-Potato IPO 奇虎再生波澜

◙ Qihoo IPO: Security in Lawsuits?

Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU) has kicked off the China Internet earnings season with stellar results, at least in terms of headline numbers, with profit and  revenue both up by healthy figures in the 30-40 percent range and more strong growth seen for the current quarter. (official announcement; English article; Chinese article) But those same results also include information that some might consider disturbing in terms of where the company is going. Sohu might want investors to believe it’s a diversified media company, with revenue coming in from search, advertising and online games. But the reality is that Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU), Sohu’s separately listed online game unit, actually earned a first-quarter profit of$52.8 million, bigger than the profit of $44.8 million for Sohu itself, which consolidates Changyou into its own results. While there’s nothing wrong with being an online game company, investors should realize that Sohu isn’t exactly the diversified media company it would like people to believe and realize the risks associated with game companies whose fortunes can quickly change depending on the success or failure of individual titles.

Bottom line: Sohu looks increasingly like peers such as NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA), which are online game companies pretending to be diversified new media firms.

搜狐<SOHU.O>财报引人注目，当前季度利润和营收都有30%-40%的健康增长。但在公司发展方向方面，其中也有一些让人感到不安的因 素。搜狐可能希望投资者把自己看成一个多元化的媒体公司，收入分别来自於搜索引擎、广告和互联网游戏等。但事实是，搜狐旗下独立上市的网络游戏部门–畅 游<CYOU.O>第一季度利润为5,280万美元，比搜狐自身的4,480万美元利润还多。虽然作为一个网络游戏公司本身没有错，但投资者 应该认识到，搜狐并非是其自身认为的那种多元化媒体公司，要意识到搜狐会面临游戏公司所要面临的风险，即资产可能因具体一款或几款游戏的成败而迅速发生变 化。

一句话：搜狐越来越像其竞争对手网易<NTES.O> 和盛大<SNDA.O>，实质上是网游公司，但都在假装自己是多元化的新媒体公司。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sohu’s Sogou and Shanda’s Groupon: Barking Up the Wrong Trees

◙ Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

◙ Sina Gearing Up for Weibo Spin-Off 新浪欲剥离微博

Chinese TV maker TCL (HKEx: 1070; Shenzhen: 000100) is making all the right moves these days, after its disastrous purchase of Thomson’s European and North American TV business a few years back. In the latest smart move for the company, in my view the sharpest of China’s major TV brands, TCL has signed Samsung (Seoul: 005930) up as a partner in its relatively state-of-the-art LCD plant in Shenzhen, with Samsung taking a 15 percent stake from one of the factory’s other partners (English report; Chinese report). As part of the package, Samsung — already the world’s top LCD maker — will also buy 2.55 million LCDs from the venture annually, or 15 percent of its output. This deal is great for TCL, not only bringing in a major new customer but also making sure the plant gets the cutting-edge technology it needs to keep up with other global leaders like LG Display (Seoul: 034220) and Chimei Innolux (Taipei: 3481). TCL already enjoys a solid reputation at home, and with this new partnership could finally start to make some serious inroads toward developing a name as a quality global brand, much the way that Samsung has done over the last 20 years.

Bottom line: TCL’s LCD tie-up with Samsung will give it a major boost towards becoming China’s first global quality TV brand.

虽然几年前中国电视机生产商TCL<0743.HK><000100.SZ>曾作出收购汤姆逊彩电部门欧美业务这个灾难性的决定，但TCL最近的动作却都中规中矩。例如TCL与三星电子<005930.KS>签约，合资在深圳建立LCD生产厂。三星持有这家工厂的另一个合资方15%的股份。作为合同的一部分，三星每年将从这个合资公司购买255万台LCD，约占其产量的15%。对於TCL来说这是一笔绝妙的买卖，因为它不仅会带来一个新的大主顾，还能确保工厂获得最尖端技术，以与LG显示器<034220.KS>、奇美电<3481.TW>等全球领先企业保持同步。TCL已在国内建立了稳定的口碑，新合约可能有助其最终成长为全球性高品质品牌，正如同三星在最近20年来走过的路。

一句话：TCL与三星签署的LCD工厂项目有助於TCL成为中国首个走向世界的彩电品牌。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China TV Makers Lack Right Stuff to Profit fom Sony Woes 索尼遭殃谁受益？

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心：有线电视行业整合

The ongoing turbulence at former Taiwanese PC high-flyer Acer (Taipei: 2353) continues, with the company reporting its lowest quarterly profit in more than 6 years as low-cost netbooks — a big piece of its rapid rise — quickly fade in popularity. (English article; Chinese article) Acer’s sudden downturn has been almost as rapid as a rise that saw it become the world’s second biggest PC seller in just four or five years, largely due to its early bet that notebook PCs would eventually overtake traditional desktop models. That bet was largely the work of Gianfranco Lanci, the company’s former CEO who left last month over differences with senior management about the company’s direction. (previous post). I previously said Lanci’s departure was a major blow for Acer, and can already sense it is returning to its previous me-too approach to product development that nearly bankrupt the company a decade ago. Perhaps I’ll be wrong, but I’m not optimistic that Acer now has the leadership and vision that Lanci brought to avoid another steep downturn.

Bottom line: Acer is on the cusp of a big downturn, and needs to quickly regain its previous forward-looking approach to product development if it wants to avoid major problems.

宏碁<2353.TW>的坎坷之路仍在继续。这家公司的季度利润创下六年来的新低，因为其低价上网本人气骤降。宏碁曾在五年内跻身世界上第二大 PC品牌，其中大部分原因是它早就预见到笔记本电脑最终将超越传统的台式机。而如今，宏碁正在以其当年蹿红时同样的速度迅速衰落。当年的预测基本上是宏碁前首席执行官兰奇(Gianfranco Lanci)做出的。而如今，因为在公司发展方向上与公司高层高意见不一致，兰奇上个月辞职。我曾说过，兰奇的出走对於宏碁来说是个重大损失，而且可以发现，宏碁的产品发展方式又要回到十年前曾将公司几乎拖垮的老路。也许我是错的，但我对宏碁的领导能力和眼光并不乐观。

一句话：宏碁在衰落，如果不想出现大问题的话，需要马上重拾以往的前瞻式产品发展策略。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Acer Takes a Hit With Lanci Leaving 宏基痛失兰奇

◙ Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

◙ Lenovo: Nothing New in LePad 2

I’d like to  start the new week with a couple of bits from the Shanghai auto show that reflect a prudent and a more dubious approach to exports by two major Chinese vehicle makers. First the smart way, which was on display by truck maker Sinotruk (HKEx: 3808). I suspect the company’s cautious approach comes at least partly from its ties to Germany’s MAN (Frankfurt: MANG), which owns 25 percent of the Chinese truck maker. The China Daily reports the pair have just unveiled their first jointly developed truck, with plans to begin mass sales next year. (English article) But of the 200,000 units targeted for annual sales by 2018, just 40,000 would be for export — a modest goal considering this product should be well received, especially in developing markets. By comparison, Great Wall Motor (HKEx: 2333), a mid-sized player in China, plans to boost sales five-fold by 2015, with a third of those coming from overseas markets as it builds a series of plants in places like Bulgaria, Brazil, Turkey and Venezuela. (English article) I have no idea where Great Wall is getting the money for such a rapid expansion; but considering their lack of overseas experience and only a modest reputation at home I suspect this plan stands a big chance of failure — if it ever even materializes.

Bottom line: Sinotruk will make steady roads into overseas markets through its joint venture with MAN, while Great Wall’s aggressive overseas expansion will face numerous obstacles.

我们来谈谈上海车展的事吧。从此次车展可以看出，中国两家主要汽车生产商对出口问题采取了截然相反的态度。首先是中国重汽<3808.HK>的聪明之道。我估计，这家公司谨慎的姿态部分来自於持有其25%股份的德国曼公司<MANG.DE>。《中国日报》报导称，两家公司刚刚推出首款合作研发的卡车，即将於明年开始大规模销售。但在其2018年之前年销售额 20万辆的目标中，只有4万辆用於出口。这个目标显得异常低调，尤其考虑到这款卡车应该在发展中国家销路不错。相比之下，中型汽车生产商长城汽车<2333.HK>则打算在2015年前销量增长四倍，其中三分之一来自海外市场。长城汽车计划在保加利亚、巴西、土耳其和委内瑞拉等地建立一系列工厂。我不知道长城汽车要想实现如此迅速扩张，钱从哪来。但考虑到他们缺乏经验，在国内口碑一般，我估计这个计划失败的可能性很大。

一句话：重汽在通过与MAN的合作，稳步打开海外市场。长城在海外激进的扩张可能面临诸多困难。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Green Auto Dream: A Road Paved with Problems 中国的绿色汽车之梦：前途荆棘密布

◙ China Buses: Cheap But Stuck in China 金龙：别开得太快

◙ Autos: a Desperate Capital Grab for Jianghuai, and Dongfeng’s Silly South Africa Plans 汽车业：江淮增发东风出口

Anyone out there looking for a new media bet that offers more than the usual Internet package might want to check out Phoenix New Media, which has just filed for a New York IPO worth up to $200 million (English article; Chinese article) I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve been a big fan of Phoenix’s parent, Hong Kong-listed Phoenix Satellite Broadcasting (HKEx: 2008), for quite a while now, due to its enviable position as a well-connected operator of the only foreign-owned news broadcaster with relatively broad access to the China airwaves. But given the perils of operating in traditional broadcasting in China, some of which I mentioned in a previous post, the new media space looks much more dependable and certainly has a lot more growth potential. Phoenix chief Liu Changle previously told me the company’s new media revenue grew 10-fold in the first half of 2010 from 2009, though obviously that rate will slow as its size — which reached $80 million last year — gets bigger. Still, there’s plenty of room left for growth in this company, which should be able to use its strong product and links to the mainstream China media establishment to track some good results going forward.

Bottom line: Phoenix New Media’s upcoming IPO will offer investors a chance at an interesting new media play with strong ties to China’s traditional media establishment.

如果想投资超出一般水平的新媒体公司，那你可能会对凤凰新媒体感兴趣。凤凰新媒体刚刚宣布计划在美国上市，最多募集资金2亿美元。首先我得承认，我是凤凰新媒体的母公司凤凰卫视<2008.HK>的超级粉丝，因为当年有相当长一段时间，凤凰卫视是唯一一家进入中国大陆电视媒体市场的海外中文电视媒体。考虑到在中国运营传统广电业务可能面临的险境，新媒体则显得更为牢靠，增长潜力也更大。凤凰卫视的老板刘长乐曾经告诉我，凤凰新媒体在2009-2010年上半年，营收增长了10倍，虽然随着规模(去年达到8,000万美元)增长，营收增速很明显会有所下降。不过这个公司还有很大增长空间，其强大的产品以及与中国主流媒体的关系，将为其带来良好的前景。

一句话：与中国传统媒体有牢固关系的凤凰新媒体，是投资者的一个机会。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Take a Deep Breath: China IPO Flood Looms 中国概念股又一春？

◙ Phoenix Wings Getting Clipped?

Video sharing has suddenly become the talk of the town, with industry leaders Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Tudou and Xunlei, along with up-and-comer Tencent (HKEx: 700) all grabbing recent headlines for their moves in the space. While most eyes are fixed on the future of Tudou, which says it is still seeking an IPO and is playing down reports it may be up for sale (English article), another interesting story is quietly unfolding involving a couple of much smaller but still significant players who have just merged. I’m talking about the announcement by Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV), the company once known as Hurray Holdings, that it will buy video sharing rival Pipi.cn. (company announcement) By my calculations, the deal should take two small players each valued at around $150 million to create a single medium-sized player worth twice that amount.  I’m not saying this guarantees any success, as this new company — which just sacked its founder in March — is still losing lots of money, at least from Ku6’s side. Its control by Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) could also prove either a blessing or a curse, depending on how Shanda’s whimsical chief Chen Tianqiao handles things. But this company could definitely be one to watch going forward, either as a consolidator or an acquisition target.

Bottom line: Stay tuned to the new Ku6 Media, which could be involved in some major M&A in the next 12 months.

视频分享网站突然成了人们热议的焦点。行业领袖优酷<YOKU.N>，土豆和迅雷，以及新加入战团的腾讯<0700.HK>都抢占了媒体的大量关注。在大多数人将目光集中於土豆上市前景之际，另一个有趣的故事正在悄悄进行。这个故事涉及的视频网站规模虽然稍小一些，但在行业里依然重要。我说的就是酷6传媒<KUTV.O>要并购皮皮网的事。按照我的计算，这笔交易会让两个估值分别在约1.5亿美元的公司变成一家业内中型规模的公司，估值应相当於上述数字的两倍。不是说这肯定能保证成功，单从酷6一方讲，这家公司的创始人刚在3月份离职，公司依然处於较严重的亏损状态。而且酷6由盛大网络<SNDA.O>控股这一事实也是双刃剑，这取决於陈天桥如何处理。但这家公司肯定是值得关注的，无论是作为并购者，还是并购对象。

一句话：关注并购後的酷6，未来一年这家公司可能会有重大的并购举动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

◙ Tencent Takes Serious Shot at Video 腾讯重拳出击视频业务

◙ Ku6 Media CEO Falls Victim to Whimsical Ways of Shanda’s Chen