China, a key driver behind GM’s (NYSE: GM) return from the dead, may not be such potent fuel in the next year or two. The largest US automaker has released its April data for China, revealing its sales in the world’s largest auto market dipped 5 percent in for the month, following small gains in February and March. (English article) The contraction is likely to be followed by more in the months ahead as Beijing takes measures to cool the market and clear up its congested roads, boding poorly for GM’s previously announced plan to double its car sales in China over the next 5 years. Barring any new moves by Beijing to re-jumpstart the market – which seems unlikely – GM’s target is starting to look more like wishful thinking than anything attainable, forcing the global auto giant to look elsewhere for a growth story to keep its investors excited.

Bottom line: GM’s explosive China growth has hit a plateau, which, barring any new government incentives, is likely to continue for the next two years.

中国市场是帮助通用汽车<GM.N>起死回生的主要因素之一，但这一动力在未来一两年或将削弱。根据通用汽车发布的4月在华销售数据，其在华汽车销量继2月及3月小幅增加後，4月较去年同期下跌5%。由於北京采取车市降温措施，以解决交通拥堵等问题，通用汽车在华销量在未来数月可能会进一步减少，这对通用此前宣布的未来五年使在华汽车销量翻倍的计划不啻为一大打击。通用的这一目标如今看来更像是个可望而不可即的美好愿望而已，而这将迫使公司寻找其它增长市场，以保持投资者的热情。

一句话：通用汽车在中国的爆发性增长势头已经触顶，而如果政府不推出新的刺激政策，这种状况在未来两年很可能会持续。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Green Auto Dream: A Road Paved with Problems 中国的绿色汽车之梦：前途荆棘密布

◙ BYD: Jump-Starting Stalled Sales With Auto Finance 比亚迪：试水汽车金融

◙ Honda, Guangzhou Auto Chase GM-SAIC 本田广汽“理念”将上市

While Renren (NYSE: REN) was grabbing headlines last week with its blockbuster IPO, another struggling Web firm, Netqin (NYSE: NQ), quietly stumbled out of the gate with barely a whimper. (English article) The Web security firm was operating under a cloud that saw its mobile software cut off by China’s three major telcos earlier this year, according to media reports. As a result, Netqin had to scale back its plans for a relatively modest $100 million IPO, going eventually with an $89 million offering when it made its New York debut late last week. As the icing on the cake, Netqin’s shares tumbled nearly 20 percent from their IPO price in their trading debut – a sharp contrast from the sharp rises of high-profile names like Renren and Youku – though not very many people seem to have even noticed. In fact, this company may be so beaten down that it might actually be a good deal if it can iron out its problems, which seems likely in the medium- to longer term.

Bottom line: Netqin’s scaled back IPO and weak launch could make this company an interesting investment if it can iron out its issues.

人人网<RENN.N>首次公开发行（IPO）受到投资者追捧，此事占据了上周的各大媒体头条。与此同时，另一家景况不佳的网络安全公司网秦<NQ.N>正黯然淡出人们的视线。据多家媒体报导，网秦手机软件被中国三大电信运营商集体屏蔽。因此，网秦不得不降低原订1亿美元的在美 IPO融资规模，上周登陆纽约证交所的首秀融资额仅有8,900万美元。更糟糕的是，虽然并没有多少人注意到这一点，但网秦上市首日破发跌幅近20%——与之形成鲜明对比的是，人人网及优酷网等知名度较高的网络公司在美上市首日股价均出现大涨。事实上，网秦股价已经如此受挫，以至于如果公司能解决自己的诸多问题——中长期来看确实有可能解决——那麽该公司倒有可能成为一个不错的投资选择。

一句话：网秦缩减IPO规模且首日破发之後，该公司若能解决自身问题，倒不失为一个有意思的投资选择。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Problem-Plagued Netqin Scales Back IPO 网秦降低IPO规模

◙ Netqin IPO Tangled in Top Line Tussle CCTV再度揭露网秦

◙ Gmail, Netqin Spar with Chinese Censors Gmail,网秦

Beijing must really be worried about Facebook coming to China. As you may recall, Chinese media were buzzing a few weeks ago that the global social networking giant was quietly talking to a Chinese partner about a joint venture (previous post), with some saying that partner was none other than search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). According to one of my industry sources, Beijing, after confirming the situation, has taken the unusual step of giving Facebook three conditions which will quite simply put the brakes on any China plans it may have. The first two conditions may be less-than-ideal but still acceptable, calling on Facebook to only enter China via a true joint venture with a local partner and to locate all of that venture’s servers in China, within easy reach of local censors. But the third condition, and the real deal breaker, would call on Facebook to make any new site it sets up in Chna open to government scrutiny at all times – an unusual step even for even China. If my source is correct, and I believe he is, Facebook’s latest bid to scale the Great Firewall could be dead already, leaving the field to domestic leaders Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin.

Bottom line: China has become even bolder and more direct than before in its determination to keep global Internet giants from operating directly in its market.

中国政府一定是确实非常担心Facebook入华。你可能还记得，仅仅几周前，中国媒体还大肆报导这家全球社交网站巨擘正悄悄与一家中国公司洽谈成立合资企 业事宜，还有报导称，这家中国公司正是本土搜索巨头百度<BIDU.O>。据我的一名业内消息人士称，北京在确认了这一情况後，已采取不同寻 常的步骤，向Facebook提出三个入华运营条件，而这些苛刻条件意味着Facebook的任何中国计划都将戛然而止。 前两个条件虽然不太理想但仍算可以接受，即要求Facebook必须与当地合作夥伴成立真正的合资企业，并将该合资企业的所有服务器设在中国，以便于国内 网络审查。但真正让合作没得可谈的是第三个条件：Facebook在华创建的任何新网站都要随时接受中国政府的审查–这甚至对中国来说，也是罕见的举 措。如果我得到的消息属实，而且我也相信这是真的，那麽Facebook试图爬过”防火长城”（Great Firewall）的最新一搏可能已告失败，市场空间将留给中国本土企业人人网和开心网。

一句话：在决心阻止全球网络巨头在华直接运营方面，中国的举措正变得比以往更加大胆和直接。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal Facebook能否入华？

◙ Snaptu: Facebook’s China Back Door? Facebook在中国走“後门”？

◙ Renren Debut: Let the Volatility Begin 人人网首秀纽约：从此“动”起来？

Telecoms equipment maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) has taken quite a number of body blows these days, both at home and abroad, but is determined to show it still has some fighter left in it. In a rare piece of good news for the company being sued by both global giant Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) and hometown rival Huawei, ZTE has landed a deal to be the primary provider of equipment to upgrade Telenor’s VAS platforms in its home Nordic markets. (company announcement) For those non-techies out there, VAS means the platforms that provide such popular services as SMS, voice mail and location-based services. In other words, this looks like a fairly substantial contract in an important market for one of the world’s top telcos. It’s interesting to note that the deal doesn’t seem to involve more substantial telecoms equipment, which means that European telcos may still be taking a wait-and-see approach to new deals with ZTE until its Huawei and Ericsson lawsuits, both filed in Europe, are settled. But in the meantime, it’s good to know that ZTE is still making products that big names like Telenor find attractive.

Bottom line: ZTE’s new deal to provide VAS equipment to Telenor is a rare piece of recent good news, but it needs to resolve its lawsuits with Huawei and Ericsson to truly move forward.

电信设备制造商中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>近期在国内外腹背受敌，但它决心向世人表明自己仍然具备战斗力。在遭到国际巨头爱立信和国内竞争对手华为的起诉後，中兴赢得了知名跨国电信运营商挪威电信(Telenor)的一项合同，将为後者在北欧本土市场建设电信增值(VAS)业务平台。VAS包括短信、语音邮件和定位服务等热门业务。换言之，能在一个重要市场赢得一家全球顶级电信公司的大单，看来是份颇具分量的合同。有意思的是，该合同似乎并不涉及多少重量级电信设备。这也就意味着，在中兴与华为、爱立信的欧洲官司结束前，欧洲电信商可能依然对与中兴签署新协议抱观望态度。与此同时，中兴仍在制造足以吸引Telenor等大公司的电信产品，这一点令人欣慰。

一句话：中兴获得向Telenor提供VAS设备的合同是该公司最近难得的好消息，但它仍需要先解决与华为和爱立信的官司，然後才能谈得上大步前行。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Beijing Plays ‘Father Knows Best’ In Huawei-ZTE Spat 中国政府插手华为与中兴之争

◙ ZTE Results: Weak Link in Networks, Handset Hopes 中兴通讯财报：薄弱环节在网络设备手机有希望

◙ ZTE Pressures Ericsson With China Suit — NOT 中兴反诉爱立信

So, what exactly have all those Westerners smitten by the potential of China’s Internet bought into with their investments in money-losing video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU)? The answer is a decidedly mixed bag, based on the company’s first quarterly earnings results. (company announcement) Of course Youku is trumpeting year-on-year revenue growth, which more than doubled, and was still relatively impressive at 20 percent quarter-on-quarter. But less impressive were its net and operating losses, which narrowed just 7-8 percent from a year earlier, even as the company was quick to point out it generated a gross profit for the quarter. Amid all the numbers, the company also flagged it’s preparing for what will probably be another major share sale (company announcement), presumably for new investments, which hasn’t helped its shares in after hours trade. I’ll admit I’ve always been a skeptic of this company, and these mixed results don’t exactly excite me as they seem to show a company whose growth is tapering way too soon for its stage of development. On the other hand, if they were to buy archrival Tudou, which is reportedly on the market (previous post), that could be a different story …

Bottom line: Youku’s first earnings are a decidedly mixed bag and may point to slowing growth far too early in its young development.

那 些迷恋中国互联网潜力的西方投资者在向仍在赔钱的视频分享网站优酷<YOKU.N>大把撒钱之後，到底收获到了什麽呢？基於优酷的一季度财 报，答案一定是好坏参半。自然，优酷在鼓吹其营收按年增长一倍以上，20%的按季增长成绩也令人印象深刻。但不那麽振奋人心的是公司的净亏损和经营亏损数 字，两者比上年同期都仅收窄7%-8%，虽然公司强调本季它实现了毛盈利。优酷还发出信号说，公司很可能会进行又一次大规模售股，想必是为支持新的投资项 目。这一消息对於该股的盘後表现显然不利。我得承认，我对这家公司一直有所怀疑，刚公布的业绩也着实没法让我兴奋起来，因为这些数字似乎显示出，对於一家处於当前成长阶段的公司来讲，它的疲态来得太快了一点。话说回来，如果优酷果真如传言所说，准备收购头号竞争对手土豆网，那可能就会是另一番景象了…

一句话：优酷上市後的首份财报肯定是喜忧参半，而且可能意味着，在如此早期的企业发展阶段，其成长步伐的放缓来得实在太早了。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ku6 Media Bulks Up, Heats Up Online Video 酷6扩张版图

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

◙ Tencent Takes Serious Shot at Video 腾讯重拳出击视频业务

When I read the headline that Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) was getting into the group buying business, my first reaction was: Here’s yet another company chasing the latest net fad to try and become the Chinese Groupon. But a read beyond the headline proved to be much more interesting, and has already turned me into a fan of this plan. (English article; Chinese article) In short, Ctrip is aiming to use its clout in the hotel space to offer group discounts for rooms at select hotels. I’m someone who frequently uses Ctrip, but increasingly I do it for the convenience and less for the good prices that seem to be rapidly disappearing as competitors emerge and the market matures. This move could bring some excitement back into the price element of the equation, and Ctrip should certainly have an edge in this space over other new group buying players due to its strong connections with most major Chinese hotels. In fact, this move fits a broader pattern that has seen Ctrip management take a much more conservative approach to new business, with the result that its new moves — while far fewer than those from the likes of Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) — often stand a much better chance of success.

Bottom line: Ctrip’s move into hotel room group buying combines a new buying trend with a product Ctrip knows well, giving the initiative a good chance of success.

当我在新闻中看到携程<CTRP.O>涉足团购业务，第一反应就是：又来一家一头扎入团购潮、一心想成中国Groupon的企业，但读了内文後更觉有趣，不禁为这个计划叫好。简言之，携程计划利用其在酒店领域的影响力，在一些特定酒店推房间团购优惠。我是携程的老客户，但更多是因携程方便，而非其价格实惠。其实随着竞争对手不断涌现、市场不断成熟，携程的价格优势正迅速消失。携程此举可以在价格上扳回一城，而且相比其他团购对手，携程与中国主要大酒店的关系更厚，优势是显而易见的。

一句话：在中国新的消费趋势下，携程在专长领域推酒店团购，应该有很好的胜算机率。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程：进军在线订餐

◙ Lashou Pulls in More Bucks in Race With Groupon 拉手网拉来更多资金与Groupon抗衡

◙ Lashou: A New Race to Market for Homegrown China Groupon

Minsheng Bank (HKEx: 1988; Shanghai: 600016), one of China’s first private banks, is telling the world it sees the future, and that future is in rural banks. (English article) I personally have a lot of respect for Minsheng, which is probably more like a true commercial bank than most of its Chinese peers. But this latest campaign, which in theory sounds interesting, seems more like a play to win favor from the media and government, which is pushing for more development in China’s rural areas. Global players like HSBC (HKEx: 5) and Standard Chartered (HKEx: 2888) have also heeded the call, in what also looks like a PR exercise. A quick look at the numbers shows just how small this business is, and how difficult it will be to gain the economies of scale to contribute meaningfully to a company like Minsheng’s bottom line: the three units Minsheng plans to open as its first foray into rural banking have combined capitalization of just 400 million yuan, or about $62 million. Sure, maybe they’ll set up thousands of similar units across China in the next few years and could start to see some serious money from the business at some point. But considering the small size of rural loans and high degree of education needed to make this initiative work, I wouldn’t look for any meaningful returns in the next 5 years or even longer – if ever.

Bottom line: Minsheng’s move into rural banking won’t yield returns anytime soon, and looks more like a PR exercise.

中国民生银行<600016.SS><1988.HK>昭告世界：看到了民生银行的未来，而未来就是村镇银行。我个人非常尊重民生银行，相比其大多数中国同行，民生银行可能更像是一家真正的商业银行。不过民生银行这次推进民生向农村地区发展，看起来更像是争取媒体与政府的好感，中国政府现在正积极推动农村地区的进一步发展。像汇丰<HKEx: 5>和渣打<HKEx: 2888>等国际大行也已积极响应这一号召，看似更像是公关动作。迅速浏览一下相关数据就能看出，民生此次村镇业务有多小：民生银行拟开设的三家村镇银行，总注册资本金仅仅四亿元人民币。当然，民生未来几年可能在全国上下开设无数类似分支，未来某一刻开始也有可能获得一定收入。但是考虑到农村贷款规模小、而且初期工作需要大量宣传教育，我认为未来五年甚至更长，更甚者始终，难见有回报。

一句话：民生银行“下乡行”近期难见收益，公关之意更为明显。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资

◙ Minsheng Fund-Raising Shift Reveals Govt Angst

After a bit of delay, a healthy dose of drama and more than enough hype, it’s finally official: Renren (NYSE: RENN) is a publicly traded company, beating out rival Kaixin to become China’s first listed social networking site. (English article) So what does this mean? Well, the company’s 29 percent jump in its first trading day is certainly one thing, though the stock was actually much higher at times during the session. All this has become almost the norm for China Internet stocks, which have become a favorite of hedge funds and other very short term (as in 1 hour or less) investors looking to make a quick buck off the China Internet story that is probably more hype than reality. Renren’s gains seem to have come at the expense of other more established China Web firms, including two of the oldest players, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohua (Nasdaq: SOHU), both of which have seen their shares sink in the last few sessions after reaching record highs in recent weeks. When the initial Renren euphoria finally dies, look for plenty of volatility in this stock as it deals with a number of issues I’ve highlighted before. (previous post) And if a correction in the broader market ever takes place, look for an even bigger correction in Renren’s overinflated price.

Bottom line: Reren has become a fast darling of short-term investors, meaning high volatility is in store for its shares in the next year.

稍有推迟、适度花边与大量炒作後，现在一切尘埃落定：人人网<NYSE: RENN>终修成正果，击败对手开心网，成为中国首个上市的社交网站。这有何意味？当然，人人网上市交易首日跳涨29%当属其一，期间涨幅一度更高。所有这一切几乎已是中国互联网题材股常态：对冲基金以及其他超短期投资者热捧中国互联网股票，以期转瞬之间实现盆满钵满，而中国网络股可能是炒作大於事实。人人网开门红似乎是以中国其他网络股下跌为代价，比如新浪<SINA.O>与搜狐<SOHU.O>，两家公司股价近来几周创纪录高位後，最近几个交易日下探。上市热潮过後，随着人人开始处理一系列问题，其股价可能会大幅波动。如果大盘出现修正，那麽人人过高的股价应该会有更大修正。

一句话：人人网已成为短期投资者迅速赚钱的“宝贝”，也就是说未来一年人人股价可能会有大波动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren On Cusp of Winning IPO Race, Despite Latest Hurdle 人人网不顾险阻力求赢下IPO大战

◙ Renren Admits to Population Inflation; More to Come?

◙ Kaixin Fights Back in Race With Renren to Market 人人、开心上市大PK：开心扳回一局