YUM Brands (NYSE: YUM) has come out with details of its offer for Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), China’s leading hot pot restaurant chain, and the deal does indeed look yummy for investors, with the US owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut brands offering a 30 percent premium to Little Sheep’s value before the deal was announced. (company announcement) But shareholder reaction to the offer tells the real story behind this one, namely that there’s a huge degree of skepticism that China’s regulator will sign off on this one, even though nearly all observers agree there’s absolutely no grounds to kill this deal on anti-trust concerns. Little Sheep shares, after being halted at HK$5 pending the announcement, jumped to HK$6.15 after terms were given — a more than 20 percent jump but still well below the HK$6.50 offer price. I’ve seen lots of deals like this before and in most cases the stock jumps to just below the offer price when a buy-out is announced. So the fact that such a large gap remains here clearly speaks volumes. China has already shown an increasing willingness to kill deals that see foreign companies swallow up its emerging brands, as evidenced by its veto of Coke’s (NYSE: KU) attempt to buy leading juice maker Huiyuan (HKEx: 1886) two years ago. I’d really like to believe the regulator will let this latest deal pass, but I’m also increasingly skeptical that China will let another of its “famous brands” be swallowed up by an international player like YUM.

Bottom line: Momentum is swinging against YUM’s proposed acquisition of Little Sheep, which could once again highlight China’s bias against M&A of its major brands by foreign firms.

百胜<YUM.N>已宣布并购小肥羊<0968.HK>计划细节，此宗交易对投资者来说颇具吸引力，百胜出价较交易宣布前小肥羊股价溢价30%。但外界高度怀疑此宗交易能否获得中国监管部门批准，尽管多数观察人士认为不能以反垄断为由推翻此宗交易。小肥羊股价已跳涨至6.15港元左右，但仍远低於百胜收购出价。我以前看过许多类似交易，多数情况下宣布并购消息後，股价会涨至仅略低於收购价的水准。而小肥羊当前股价表现足够说明问题。从两年前中国否决可口可乐<KO.N>收购汇源果汁<1886.HK>，就可以看出中国越来越不愿让外国公司并购中国名牌企业。我真心希望监管部门能批准百胜并购小肥羊，但还是持怀疑态度。

一句话：百胜收购小肥羊阻力大，可能再次印证中国不愿意外国公司收购中国名牌企业。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

◙ McDonald’s Revs Up for China Drive-Thru 麦当劳寄望“得来速”汽车餐厅拓宽中国市场

◙ Starbucks China Expansion: New Brew Needed to Serve Up Success

We’re finally getting a bit more clarity on e-commerce company 360Buy, and why investors like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) chief Robin Li all recently plowed $1.5 billion into the company, leading its Chairman Liu Qiangdong to proclaim his baby was worth $10 billion. So, let’s backtrack a bit and do a quick analysis of this one. At a media briefing in Beijing, Liu told the world his company hopes to turn profitable next year, and could make an IPO worth $2 billion or more not long after that. (English article; Chinese article) Kudos to 360Buy for at least waiting to become profitable before going public, unlike Youku (NYSE: YOKU), which decided getting to market was more important than showing investors you can actually earn money (though investors don’t seem to have cared in that case). The only problem is, 360Buy seems to have a higher image of itself than the numbers would suggest. Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy’s only listed competitor, has a market cap of about $1.5 billion and is about a third 360Buy’s size in terms of market share, according to the reports. That means 360Buy should be worth about $5.5 billion by my estimates. The way the China market is growing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 360Buy’s market value double in the next two years. But a lot can also happen in that time, and anyone who says the company is worth $10 billion now appears to be suffering from a case of China Internet overvaluation fever.

Bottom line: 360Buy is about two years ahead of the market in terms of its own assessment of the valuation.

沃尔玛<WMT.N>、俄罗斯DST投资公司和百度李彦宏近期向京东商城投资共约15亿美元，京东商城董事长刘强东宣称该公司价值100亿美元。那麽我们不妨来迅速分析一下吧。刘强东在记者会上表示，寄望於京东商城明年实现盈利，而实现盈利後不久将进行首次公开发行(IPO)，拟筹资20亿美元或更多。京东商城这点值得赞许，至少打算等到盈利後再上市，不像优酷<YOKU.N>，後者似乎认为上市比证明其盈利能力更重要，不过优酷投资者好像并不在意这点。眼下唯一的问题是，京东商城的形象似乎有点被吹捧了。其竞争对手当当<DANG.N>市场份额约为京东商城的三分之一，市值约15亿美元，以此推算，我认为京东商城价值应在55亿美元左右。不过鉴於中国市场扩张速度，倘若未来两年中京东商城价值增长一倍，我也不会感到奇怪。但未来两年可能发生很多事情。

一句话：京东商城对自身价值的评估，较市场超前了两年左右。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: WMT) recent announcement that it is buying an undisclosed stake in China e-commerce company Yihaodian has touched off widespread chatter that this young but up-and-coming Chinese online retailer could become Wal-Mart’s online partner in China. (English article; Chinese article) The e-commerce space in China does indeed appear to be hot these days, with 360Buy recently raising a whopping $1.5 billion in new capital (previous post), and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) making a successful IPO earlier this year. Considering that US online retailing leader Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) has had a presence in China for several years now through its purchase of Joyo.com, it does indeed seem logical that Wal-Mart might want to position itself in the local online retailing space as it embarks on a major China build-up, to avoid losing ground to both its US rival and other Chinese players like Alibaba’s Taobao in this fast growing space. Yihaodian’s numbers do look impressive: after just three years in business, the company expects to notch 800 million yuan in revenue this year and keep its top line growing at 100 percent or more over the next two years. I expect that Wal-Mart is positioning itself for a potential buy-out if Yihaodian continues to perform well. Given Wal-Mart’s already sizable presence in China, the connections and expertise it has to offer could provide a potent combination for Yihaodian, creating a major new player on the China e-commerce scene.

Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s tie-up with Yihaodian marks the US retailer’s first step into China’s lucrative e-commerce arena, and could pay handsome returns for both parties.

沃尔玛<WMT.N>近期宣布收购中国电子商务企业1号店股权，外界盛传後者可能成为沃尔玛在中国大陆的在线合作夥伴。近期中国电子商务领域如火如荼，京东商城新筹资15亿美元，当当商城<DANG.N>今年稍早在美国成功上市。考虑到美国在线零售巨头亚马逊<AMZN.O>已通过收购卓越，进军中国市场数年，沃尔玛想通过收购本土企业确立在中国电子商务领域地位，听起来倒也合情合理，这样有助其与美国竞争对手–亚马逊，以及淘宝等中国电子商务企业竞争。1号店业绩也确实不俗：运营才三年，该公司预计今年营收可达8亿元人民币，且未来两年营收可望以100%甚至更快速度增长。倘若1号店保持这样的势头，我估计沃尔玛未来可能全面收购该公司。而沃尔玛在中国市场已颇具影响力，建立的网络与经验可助1号店一臂之力，巩固其在中国电子商务领域地位。

一句话：沃尔玛与1号店结盟，是沃尔玛进军中国电子商务的第一步，可望带来双赢局面。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — A $10 Bln Company? 京东商城价值100亿美元？

◙ Dangdang Hits Its Stride, Dang It!

◙ What’s in a Name? Plenty for Best Buy in China

After soaring 34 percent on its trading debut late last week (English article), Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) has come gliding back to earth somewhat, as first-day investors piled out of the stock to lock in some of the big gains for one of China’s more interesting new media plays to go public in a while. Phoenix stock is still 12 percent ahead of its IPO price, which isn’t too bad considering the broader market’s performance these last few days and the much worse performance of recently listed Chinese new media plays Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE). (previous post) Anyone who has read this blog for a while knows I’m a fan of Phoenix, due to its strong position in the new media space and strong links to the traditional China media establishment through its well-connected parent, Phoenix Satellite Broadcast (HKEx: 2008), which is more focused on TV. Once the short-term buyers are finished with this stock, which appears to be soon, I’d look for good things from both Phoenix New Media shares and the company as a whole as it banks on its unique position to spread its wings and enter into some of the other spaces that make China one of the world’s most interesting and fastest growing new media markets.

Bottom line: Phoenix New Media’s post IPO share drop looks like some quick profit taking, but look for strong performance from this company going forward.

凤凰新媒体<FENG.N>上周上市首日，股价飙涨34%，但如今已回落，因首日买入的投资者纷纷抛售，进行获利了结。凤凰新媒体股价目前仍较招股价高出12%，结合过去几日大盘走势看，这样的成绩已经相当不错了，比近期上市的中国人人网<RENN.N>和世纪佳缘<DATE.O>好多了。看我博客有一阵子的人都知道，我是凤凰新媒体的粉丝，因为它在新媒体领域颇为突出，并且借助其母公司凤凰卫视<2008.HK>与中国传统媒体建立了密切联系。我认为短线投资者很快淡出後，凤凰新媒体股价及其公司本身都将有不错表现，因其可凭借独特地位，展翅进军更宽广的领域。

一句话：凤凰新媒体股价回落，看来是获利了结使然，但预计其未来将有不俗表现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

◙ Phoenix Media Sets Eyes on US Investors 凤凰新媒体寻求美国上市

◙ Phoenix Wings Getting Clipped?

It’s time to take a break from the antics of Alibaba and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and look at some of the other interesting companies in the China universe, which brings me to software outsourcing firm VanceInfo (NYSE: VIT), which has just posted quarterly results and updated annual guidance that look decidedly unimpressive. (Results announcement) I was intrigued earlier this year when VanceInfo linked up with leading global business software maker Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), seeing the tie-up as an opportunity for major new business development. (previous post) That new business doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon, however, as VanceInfo posted relatively ho-hum revenue growth of around 30 percent and only 5 percent profit growth on sharply higher costs. Investors seemed equally underwhelmed, as VanceInfo’s shares dropped 10 percent in NYSE trading. The company tried to put some of the blame on Japan’s earthquake, even though Japan counts for just a tiny fraction of its revenue. Considering the high-growth space that this company occupies and its market-leading position, VanceInfo should be capable of more exciting growth than just 30 percent, which, while high by most standards, seems disappointing for China. if it continues to post such mediocre performance — which looks likely based on its updated full-year guidance — look for its stock price and valuation to continue dropping further still for the rest of the year.

Bottom line: VanceInfo is failing to capitalize on its market leading position in China’s software outsourcing market, and needs to breathe new life into its top and bottom lines to justify its valuation.

别再纠结于阿里巴巴和雅虎<YHOO.O>之争了，还是留意一下其他公司吧，于是我注意到了文思创新软件<VIT.N>。该公司刚刚公布季度财报，并更新年度财测，不过看起来都是平淡无奇。今年早些时候，文思创新与软件巨头甲骨文<ORCL.O>结盟，并将此视作开发新业务的重大机遇，但看来短期内难以如愿。该公司营收增长了30%，而由於成本大幅上升，其利润仅增5%。投资者看来也不太买账，其股价周一重挫10%。文思创新试图将业绩不佳归咎於日本地震，但日本在其营收中所占比例相当低。鉴於中国软件外包领域高速增长，且该公司占据领先地位，营收增长本应不止30%而已。如果文思创新未来业绩还是这麽平淡无奇，估计在今年余下时间里，其股价和估值将继续下滑。

一句话：文思创新未能充分发挥在中国软件外包市场领头羊地位，其营收和获利须有重大改观，其估值方才显得合理。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ VanceInfo Finds China Partner in Oracle 文思得遇贵人甲骨文

◙ Hisoft: Positioned for Japanese Rebound 海辉软件：将受益於日本重建

◙ Mindray, HiSoft See Slowdown in 2011

How convenient for Alibaba Group that the latest blow-up in its endless feud with controlling stakeholder Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) comes as China’s sputtering e-commerce giant has just released quarterly results that are far from mind-blowing. (Results announcement) But first things first, and let’s discuss this latest spat with Yahoo. Believe it or not, I actually believe Alibaba this time when it says it quietly moved its lucrative Alipay electronic payments service into a separate company beyond its direct control due to upcoming Chinese regulations that forbid foreign ownership of electronic payment processors. (Alibaba statement) In fact, Chinese media are reporting that other e-payment companies are also quietly cutting their ties to foreign investors for the same reason. (English article) But back to Aliababa. While I find Alibaba’s move to be credibly motivated, what I find more disingenuous is the fact it made the move without consulting or even informing Yahoo, which, after all, owns 40 percent of Alibaba. Meantime, Alibaba’s main listed unit, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) in the midst of all this has quietly posted results that are far from stellar, with just 3 percent revenue growth quarter on quarter and 10 percent profit gains, following a scandal at the company earlier this year over fake suppliers on its network designed to boost numbers. Does all this brouhaha over the Yahoo spat, even if it wasn’t engineered deliberately, look just a little bit like a smoke screen to hide the bad numbers?

Bottom line: Alibaba’s latest very public spat with Yahoo is a coincidental, but very conveniently timed, smoke screen masking the deteriorating performance for scandal-plagued Alibaba.com.

中国电子商务巨擘阿里巴巴又与其控股股东雅虎<YHOO.O>打起了嘴仗，其实前者刚刚公布了季度财报——业绩远称不上令人兴奋。但让我们先讨论一下最近发生的这场争执吧。信不信由你，实际上我倒相信阿里巴巴这次的表态：即它之所以悄悄将支付宝所有权转移给另一家公司，是因担心不久中国监管部门将禁止外国公司控股电子支付平台。中国媒体还报导过，其他电子支付公司也因同样原因在悄悄切断与外国投资者的联系。但让我觉得阿里巴巴不那麽真诚的一个事实是，阿里巴巴并未事先徵询雅虎意见甚或通知雅虎，毕竟後者持有阿里巴巴40%的股权。与此同时，阿里巴巴的主要上市公司Alibaba.com<1688.HK>悄悄公布了财报，其季度营收较上季只增长了3%，盈利增长 10%，这些数字远称不上令人印象深刻。今年早些时候，该公司还曾传出为推高业绩而制造虚假供应商的丑闻。那麽现在看来，阿里巴巴如此大张旗鼓地与雅虎展开论战，即便并非处心积虑，也是不是有点为了掩饰财报不佳而放出的烟雾弹呢？

一句话：阿里巴巴最近与雅虎大张旗鼓的争执，也许是一场虽属偶然但时机恰到好处的烟幕弹，旨在掩饰Alibaba.com糟糕的财报。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba Challenges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴：财报说了些什麽？

◙ Alibaba, Baidu Get Snagged in U.S. Piracy Report

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

They should change Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) name to Botchdu, as this company seems to mess up just about anything outside its core search business. In the latest botchdu for Baidu, the company announced a “reorganization” for its microblogging service, Baidu Talk, launched just last year, that seems to indicate this latest failed product will eventually be quietly retired to oblivion. (English article) The failure would follow the disappointing results for Baidu’s e-commerce initiative, the company formerly known as You’a, and a number of other failures in non-search areas before that. In fact, the only things that Baidu seems good at outside search all involve facilitating illegal trade in copyrighted products. Of course Baidu has just launched a new service for legally obtained music, no doubt destined to become another botch, even as it refuses to close its older popular music site that’s a favorite among  music pirates. This latest case with Baidu Talk just reiterates what I’ve always said, namely that this company lacks imagination and the ability to execute. But that hasn’t stopped the speculators, who have bid its stock up to ridiculous valuations that will have to come down someday when people realize that search emperor Robin Li is wearing no clothes.

Bottom line: Baidu’s reorganization of its microblogging service marks the latest in a growing list of failures for this unimaginative company outside its core search area.

百度<BIDU.O>应该改名为“百糟蹋”（Botchdu），因为这家公司似乎会把一切不属於其核心搜索引擎业务的事情搞得一团糟。最近，百度宣布了其“微博”服务——“百度说吧”的“重组”计划。看样子，这个去年刚推出的产品最终也难逃阵亡的厄运。此前，百度的电子商务平台“有啊”经营惨淡，除了核心的搜索引擎业务，其在核心业务以外的很多生意都表现平平。甚至似乎可以说，百度在搜索领域外擅长的那些业务都是与侵犯版权的非法生意有关。不错，百度刚刚推出一项合法的音乐新服务，但毫无疑问，这项服务的下场也不会好到哪里去。与此同时，百度仍拒绝关闭它那个在盗版爱好者中人气超旺的音乐旧网站。“百度说吧”的最新动态印证了我一直以来的说法：这家公司缺乏想象力和执行力。但这并未阻止投机客将百度的估值推高到不可思议的程度。实际上，当人们发现百度搜索帝国的李皇帝在其核心业务之外只不过是没穿衣服的国王时，百度股价总有回归理性的一天。

一句话：百度这家在核心搜索服务之外毫无想象力的公司重组微博服务，意味着它又一次新业务开拓的失败。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s Li Under Assault in Media Spotlight 百度李彦宏遭媒体炮轰

◙ Baidu: Tidbits But Still No Search Alternatives 百度：干扰不断

◙ Baidu-Powered Cellphones? I Don’t Think So 百度也想做手机？恐怕没戏

It seems that US investors have finally woken up from their months of irrational exuberance, to borrow the phrase from Alan Greenspan, towards China Internet IPOs. The unraveling of a match made in heaven — at least for Chinese Internet firms — was on display in the weak trading debut for Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE), whose shares limped out of the gate on the Nasdaq with a small gain, but quickly faltered at the investor altar and ended their first day down 4 percent from their IPO price. (English article; Chinese article) What a difference a week makes, as I’m sure this company, China’s largest Internet dating site, would have soared off the charts if it had debuted just a week earlier when China Internet offerings were the hot ticket in town. Reflecting the broader shift in investor sentiment, Renren (NYSE: RENN), a top Chinese social networking site which roared out of the gate with a 29 percent gain on its trading debut just a week ago (previous post), is now actually down 10 percent from its IPO price after tumbling in the last few sessions. Another net firm, mobile security software maker Netqin (NYSE: NQ), is now down a whopping 40 percent from its IPO price after a weak debut last week (previous post), though that company has other issues as well. What all of this means is that the days of frothy prices for any and every China Internet IPO are finished, at least for now, though quality offerings could still fetch some nice attention and valuations.

Bottom line: Short-term investors have grown tired of China Internet offerings, boding poorly for their stocks in the near-term.

借用格林斯潘的话说，美国投资者似乎终於从数月来对中国互联网企业首次公开募股（IPO）的非理性狂欢中清醒过来。至少对中国互联网企业而言，天作之合美梦的破灭在世纪佳缘<DATE.O>上市首日的疲弱表现中显露无遗。世纪佳缘在美上市首日，开盘小幅上涨，但很快急转直下，收盘时较IPO价格下跌4%。仅仅一周之差，差距便如此之大。我确信，如果该企业提前一周上市，那麽这家中国最大的婚恋交友网站的股价一定会飙升，因当时中国互联网IPO正炙手可热。中国头号社交网站——人人网<RENN.N>一周前在纽交所挂牌上市後，首日上涨29%，但在此後的几个交易日里遭受重挫，目前股价较发行价已经跌去10%，反映出投资者整体情绪已经转向。另一家网络公司——手机安全软件商网秦<NQ.N>上周在美上市，目前股价较发行价下跌40%，当然该公司还存在其它问题。所有这一切都说明，中国互联网企业IPO的泡沫价格时代已经终结，至少现在是这样，尽管一些有品质的IPO可能依然会吸引某些不错的关注和估值。

一句话：短线投资者已逐渐对中国互联网企业IPO感到厌倦，预示着这些个股的短期前景很不乐观。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Netqin Fizzles on Debut, Could Still Have Potential 网秦首秀表现不佳但可能仍具潜力

◙ Beijing Deals Death Blow to Facebook China Plan – Source 中国宣判Facebook入华计划“死刑”–消息人士

◙ Renren Debut: Let the Volatility Begin 人人网首秀纽约：从此“动”起来？