Soufun Shores Up Foundation With Strong Results, Outlook 搜房网靓丽财报和前景或预示房产业向好

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The good news keeps coming from real estate services firm Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) which, after announcing a nice dividend just two weeks ago, has reported solid quarterly results and raised its 2011 guidance, in what also looks like a good sign for the real estate sector. The company’s revenue nearly doubled in the quarter and its operating profit quadrupled. (company announcement) It also upped its annual revenue outlook by nearly 10 percent, saying it now expects 2011 revenue to come in at $290-$300 million versus previous guidance of $270-$280 million. The strong results came just 10 days after Soufun announced a dividend that amounted to a cash return of about 5 percent, in a bid to lure back investors as US-listed China stocks take a broader beating due to concerns about their accounting. (previous post) Soufun didn’t provide any commentary with the results, but clearly the ongoing correction in China’s overinflated real estate market isn’t as severe as many had predicted, at least not yet. That news should also bode well for other big real estate services firms like E-House (NYSE: EJ), which is in dire need of good news after a very weak first-quarter report that saw it slip into the red. (previous post) We’ll have to wait for E-House’s results to see if a turnaround is really underway for the broader sector. But at first glance at least, Soufun’s strong results seem to say that demand for real estate services and transaction volumes are picking up as home buyers look for bargains after months of waiting to see the effects of Beijing’s attempts to cool the market. Healthy activity for lower priced homes in smaller markets might also be a factor in Soufun’s good results, as evidenced by a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report earlier from Vanke (Shenzhen: 000002), China’s leading home builder. (English article)  Regardless of specifics, all the signs certainly seem to point to better times ahead for Soufun.

Bottom line: Soufun looks like a good bet following strong Q2 results and a new dividend, boding well for the broader real estate sector.

房地产服务公司搜房网(SFUN.N)不断传来好消息。公司两周前刚刚宣布派息，现又公布了第二季度的靓丽财报，且提高了2011财年的预估收入，这似乎也是房地产行业的一个好迹象。搜房网第二季度的营收增长近一倍，其营业利润同比增长3倍。公司还将年度营收预估提高了近10%，称目前预计2011财年的营收额在2.9亿-3亿美元之间，高于此前2.7亿-2.8亿美元的预期。因受累于在美上市企业会计丑闻所带来的不利行情，就在10天前，为重新吸引投资者，搜房网宣布决定每股普通股派发一美元股息。搜房网没有就该财报提供任何评论，但很明显，中国房地产市场正在进行的修正并没有很多人预计得那麽严重，至少目前看是这样。这则消息对易居中国(EJ.N)等其他大型房地产服务公司亦是利好。此前，易居中国第一季度录得的业绩十分黯淡。我们还需等待易居中国发布第二季度的财报，以确定整个房地产业是否出现好转。但至少初步看来，搜房网的靓丽财报似乎说明，购房者在观望政府楼市打压政策数月後，国内对房地产服务的需求和交易量都在增加。较小市场低价房屋的良好动向或许也是搜房网靓丽财报的一个因素，此前万科(000002.SZ)优于预期的第二季度财报便是明证。所有迹象似乎都预示搜房网前景向好。

一句话：搜房网二季度财报靓丽，加上此前宣布的派息，该公司看似一个不错的选择，并预示整个房地产业前景向好。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sofun’s New Strategy: Dividend Wave Ahead? 搜房网新策略：中国概念股派息潮即将来临？

◙ E-House Foundations Looking Outright Shaky 易居中国根基明显摇晃

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

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There’s nothing like a big fat dividend to say you’re sorry, or at least that seems to be what online game operator Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) is telling investors by becoming the latest US-listed Chinese firm to offer a dividend after coming under fire for some of its accounting practices. The company also announced the resignation of its CFO, again in an apparent attempt to mollify investors about one of its investments in an insurance business. But first the dividend. Just a week after real estate services firm Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) offered wary investors a 5 percent dividend (previous post), becoming the first major US-listed Chinese firm to offer such a dividend, Giant has come out with its own offering of a dividend of $3 a share, according to its latest results announcement. (company announcement) That translates to a yield of a whopping 40 percent, one of the highest rates I’ve seen in recent years, based on Giant’s latest closing price. At the same time, the company also announced the resignation of its CFO, who is being replaced by another person whose credentials include a stint at global accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. (company announcement) Reading between the lines seems relatively simple here: Giant’s chairman used the company as his personal investment vehicle to buy an insurance company, a move that no doubt was approved by a CFO who was eager to please his boss even though insurance was completely unrelated to Giant’s core gaming business. When investors found out, they protested by selling off Giant shares, which tumbled 30 percent in the last 3 months. To win investors back, Giant is offering this generous dividend and has fired its CFO as a scapegoat. This is exactly the kind of shenanigan that has led to a broader confidence crisis over the accounting practices of US-listed Chinese companies. If I were an investor, I would certainly consider buying Giant for the short term simply for the dividend. But longer term, I’d still be quite wary of this and many other US-listed Chinese companies.

Bottom line: Giant Interactive’s awarding of a generous dividend and firing of its CFO is an attempt to mollify investors over accounting concerns, which will continue to weigh on the company’s stock.

要想表达歉意，没什麽能比提供一份丰厚的分红更好的了——至少近来因会计事宜而遭遇批评的网络游戏公司巨人网络是想通过这种方式来与投资者沟通。巨人网络还宣布首席财务官(CFO)辞职，很明显这也是就一笔保险生意的投资来安抚投资者。就在一个星期前，搜房网(SFUN.N: 行情)决定给投资者5%的分红，这是第一家这麽做的在美国市场上市的中国公司，而巨人网络则紧随其後，提供每股3美元的分红，这意味将40%的利润用来分红，这是近年来我看到的分红力度最大的一次。同时，巨人网络还宣布了新的CFO上任，此人曾经在普华永道工作。解读这一系列事件，其中隐含的意思其实很简单：巨人的董事长将这家公司作为其个人投资工具，购买了一家保险公司，而CFO为了讨好自己的老板，就毫不犹豫地批准了，没有顾及到保险业务是与巨人的核心游戏业务完全无关的。投资者发现後，通过抛售巨人股票以示抗议，巨人股票在过去三个月就大跌30%。为了安抚投资者，巨人提出分红并解雇CFO。但实际上这会让人们对巨人的财务状况产生更大的信任危机。如果我是投资者，我肯定会短期内买巨人的股票，来获得分红，但从较长期投资角度而言，我会对巨人公司和其他在美国上市的中国公司持警惕态度。

一句话：巨人网络公司提供丰厚分红，解聘其CFO，是为了安抚投资者对会计问题的担心。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sofun’s New Strategy: Dividend Wave Ahead? 搜房网新策略：中国概念股派息潮即将来临？

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

News Digest: August 9, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 9. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ NDRC Approves AU Optronics (Taipei: 2409) Kunshan 8.5G LCD Project (English article)

◙ Unicom (HKEx: 762) Audit Storm Not Finished Yet, More Problems May Linger (Chinese article)

◙ China Vanke’s (Shenzhen: 000002) H1 Profit Rises 5.9% on Home Sales in Smaller Cities (English article)

◙ Youku.com Announces Unaudited Q2 Results (PRNewswire)

◙ Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) Announces Q2 Results (PRNewswire)

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

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It’s been less than a week since Beijing announced new incentives to help boost its struggling alternate energy sector (previous post), and already we’re seeing the first trickle of new deals as state-run entities start to heed the call to help these companies by building new projects. In the first round of what will undoubtedly be many similar announcements in the months ahead, solar cell maker Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has signed a contract with a unit of China Power Investment Corp to provide panels for a plant in Qinghai with up to 30 megawatts of capacity. (company announcement) In a similar deal announced at nearly the same time, wind energy specialist Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) has announced its own tie-up with another state-owned entity, the operator of the massive Three Gorges Dam Project, to co-develop wind energy projects in Guangdong province and potentially overseas down the road. (company announcement) Neither of these deals should come as a huge surprise to anyone, as Beijing has indicated for the last few months that it will step up to help these promising but struggling young companies through the worst-ever downturn for their young industry. What is a bit surprising is how fast Beijing has taken action, with these two deals coming just a week after it announced its first concrete incentives to help the sector, which just proves that the central government can move surprisingly fast when it makes up its mind to do something. This coming wave of orders from domestic Chinese power producers, combined with recent positive signs from the global market (previous post) mean the sector will be poised for a sharp comeback in the months ahead, making these beaten down stocks an attractive prospect in the second half of the year.

Bottom line: The solar sector is poised for a strong comeback, riding a rebound in global demand and a coming wave of new domestic orders like ones just announced by Trina Solar and Ming Yang.

中国政府宣布新能源刺激政策还不到一个星期，我们已开始看到新的协议签署，因国有企业响应号召，通过新项目来帮助这些企业。光伏产品制造商天合光能<TSL.N>与中国电力投资集团旗下公司签署协议，向青海一工厂提供太阳能面板。未来数月，预计还将有更多类似协议宣布。几乎与此同时，风电厂商明阳风电<MY.N>宣布，与另一家国有企业–中国三峡集团旗下公司中国三峡新能源公司签署协议，在广东省共同开发风电项目，未来还可能在海外进行合作。这些协议毫不令人感到意外，因为中国政府最近几个月已表示，将帮助这些遇到困难的新能源企业渡过难关。但让人意外的是中国政府行动会如此之快–刚刚宣布新的行业扶持政策就有两宗协议签署，由此证明，只要中央政府下定决心，就可快速行动。中国国内风电企业的此番“订单潮”以及全球市场最近出现的积极迹象都意味着，太阳能产业未来数月料迅速扭转颓势，今年下半年这些公司的股票料前景向好。

一句话：全球需求反弹以及中国将出现一批类似天合光能、明阳风电的新协议，太阳能产业料强势复苏。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

◙ China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

◙  Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

News Digest: August 6-8, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 6-8. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) In Deal to Jointly Develop Offshore Wind Power in Guangdong (PRNewswire)

◙ Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) Announces Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

◙ China Everbright Bank Said to Delay Share Sale on Volatile Global Markets (English article)

◙ Former SMIC (HKEx: 918) Executive Qiu Ciyun Named CEO (Chinese article)

◙ 51job Inc (Nasdaq: JOBS) Reports Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

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Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achieves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.

Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.

新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域，都算是後来者，但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉，上月启动轻博客公测版後，其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充，两款产品实现相互联通，实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长，若到今年底用户达到1,000万，我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实，则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N)，今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速，微博也开始盈利，我认为，最快到明年底，新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起，在美国上市。与此同时，腾讯也制定详细计划，打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网，将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似，腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群，将服务拓展至新领域，短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O)，成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然，腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些，需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位，我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客，其成功几乎没有悬念。

一句话：新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量，而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

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One has to wonder what exactly is going on behind the scenes with video sharing site Tudou, whose IPO faces stiff headwinds due to despite extremely negative market sentiment towards China companies. Domestic and international media are reporting the money-losing company has set a price range of $28-$30 for its IPO shares, which will give it a relatively modest market value of $820 million, or about a quarter that of chief rival Youku (NYSE: YOKU), which debuted at a much better time  late last year. (Chinese article) Tudou, whose name means potato in Chinese, hopes to raise about $160 million from the offering, an improvement from the $120 million mentioned in some reports earlier in the week, possibly indicating sentiment toward the offering, now set for mid-August, has been positive initially. (English article) Tudou’s stubborn determination to move ahead with this offering, despite facing one of the worst climates for China stocks on Wall Street in recent years, has left many puzzled, myself included. My guess is that the firm is under pressure from its investors to make the offering, which was originally scheduled for late last year but ran into problems due to a messy divorce between Chairman Gary Wang and his now-former wife. The negative sentiment does seem to have quieted somewhat in the last two weeks, and may have even bottomed out following the disastrous pulling of another IPO for video sharing site Xunlei last month (previous post). But with broader market sentiment still weak after resolution of the US debt crisis, and questions still lingering over accounting standards at many US-listed Chinese firms, this hardly seems like the best time to go to market. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tudou’s shares price at or even below the bottom of their range and for the IPO to be delayed once more if the offering’s size slips below $100 million.

Bottom line: Tudou is taking a big risk by making an IPO into the current negative market, and stands a strong chance of having to pull the offering.

眼下中资股在美国股市的形势非常不利，土豆网仍坚持推进上市事宜，这不禁让人感到纳闷。中国和海外媒体报导称，土豆网IPO指导价区间为28-30美元，相当于市值8.2亿美元左右，约为优酷(YOKU.N)的四分之一，不过後者去年底上市的时机比现在好多了。土豆网希望此次招股能筹资1.6亿美元，这比本周一些报导中说的1.2亿要高。眼下是多年来中资股在华尔街最艰难的阶段之一，土豆网仍坚持推进上市事宜，让许多人百思不得其解，其中也包括我。据我推测，土豆网坚持上市可能是迫于来自投资者的压力，因为原本计划去年底就上市，後来由于其首席执行官王微离婚纠纷而拖延。过去两周，市场的负面气氛似乎已减退，甚至有点触底回升的苗头，但整体市场氛围仍偏于疲弱，因美国债务危机刚刚才化解，而市场对许多美国上市中资股的会计标准仍存在疑问，因此怎麽看都不是上市的好时机。如果土豆网IPO价格处于甚至低于指导价区间下限，或者由于筹资规模不足1亿美元而再次推迟上市，我都不会感到意外。

一句话：土豆网在眼下市场氛围中推进上市事宜，实在是冒着很大风险，最後也有可能暂时取消上市。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

◙ Investors Feast on Sun Art 高鑫零售首日挂牌表现抢眼

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

 

News Digest: August 5, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 5. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Tudou Sets $28-$30 Per Share Range For IPO To Raise $1.6 Bln (Chinese article)

◙ Online Game Developer Kylin Lands USD 20 Mln in New Funding – Source (English article)

◙ Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) Agrees to Sell Its Film Business (PRNewswire)

◙ Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) to Supply 30 MW of PV Modules for Qinghai Solar Projects (PRNewswire)

◙ NetEase.com (Nasdaq: NTES) to Report Q2 Financial Results on August 17 (PRNewswire)

New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

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Despite an ongoing high-profile dispute with global credit card leader Visa (V.N), leading Chinese credit and debit card transaction processor UnionPay is pushing ahead with its plans to become a top global player, signing a new tie-up with US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), the fifth largest US bank. (English announcement) The deal, which comes not long after a similar tie-up between UnionPay and Visa’s closest global rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA), will see UnionPay cards accepted by some 1 million US and European merchants who use US Bancorp’s Elavon financial network. The deal should come as a nice boost not only to UnionPay and its stakeholders, which include China’s top banks, but also to hotels, restaurants and other US shops on the Elavon network, which will now be able to accept credit and debit cards from the growing tide of Chinese traveling to the US and Europe for business and pleasure. This deal is the latest in a growing string of similar tie-ups for UnionPay over the last two years, as it looks to set up a global network to rival those of Visa and MasterCard, leveraging the growing spending power of consumers in its home China market where it has a monopoly on credit and debit card transaction processing services. The company is growing rapidly, with a profit of 972 million yuan, or about $150 million, last year, up 30 percent from the previous year. A recent small share of its sales valued the company at more than $11 billion. With growth potential well above that of its major stakeholders, I suspect UnionPay will make a dual IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong in the next 12 months, as its major shareholders, which include leading banks ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 600398) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), look to raise more cash to bolster their shaky balance sheets. Such an offering could be one of the hottest in quite a while, as investors flock to a company with the clearest potential to take advantage of the growing spending clout of Chinese consumers.

Bottom line: UnionPay’s latest tie-up with US Bancorp will give the company a nice boost in the US and Europe, in the run-up to a blockbuster IPO in the next 12 months.

中国银联与全球信用卡领头羊维萨卡(Visa)的高调纠纷尽管还在继续，但这一中国主要的信用卡交易处理商正致力发展成为全球顶级运营商的宏图大计，与美国第五大银行US Bancorp(USB.N) 签署了新的合作协议。前不久，中国银联和Visa的宿敌万事达卡(MA.N)刚刚达成类似的合作协议。该协议将使中国银联卡被大约100万使用US Bancorp金融网络的美欧商户所接受。该协议不仅对中国银联及其股东是个推动，也有利于使用US Bancorp的Elavon结算平台的酒店、宾馆和其他美国店铺，他们将能接受来自中国游客的信用卡和借记卡消费。这也是中国银联过去两年一系列合作项目中的最新一起。中国银联垄断着中国国内的信用卡和借记卡交易处理服务，中国银联希望凭借中国国内消费者日渐增长的消费力为杠杆，建立一个全球性网络，抗衡Visa和万事达卡。中国银联的发展速度很快，去年的利润达到了9.72亿元(约1.5亿美元)，同比增长了30%。由于其增长潜力远远好于主要股东的业绩，我认为，中国银联在未来12个月将寻求在上海和香港进行两地上市，因包括工商银行(601398.SS)(1398.HK)、建设银行(601939.SS) (0939.HK)等在内的主要股东希望筹集更多资本支持自身摇摇欲坠的资产负债表。类似IPO可能会是相当长一段时间内的热门投资之一，因投资者将涌向一个明显有潜力利用中国消费者消费力的公司。

一句话：中国银联和US Bancorp的最新合作将使银联在美欧市场获得良好发展，为未来12个月的重量级IPO作好准备。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

◙ Hilton, Starwood Roll Out Welcome Mat for Chinese 喜达屋、希尔顿迎合中国消费者

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

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Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has just announced updated guidance for its second quarter that looks downright ugly, making its rosy outlook for the rest of the year even stranger, possibly signalling a bottom for the struggling solar sector in its worst-ever downturn. Just days before reporting its results, Trina has told the market it expects its unit sales to come in around 10 percent below its previous guidance, while margins will miss previous guidance by an even sharper 20 percent. (company announcement) But what’s decidedly odd here is that the company is sticking to its previous full-year guidance for 65-70 percent shipment growth on the back of a sharp turnaround in the second half of the year. The conflicting news initially spooked investors, who sold off Trina shares but then later started buy, causing the company’s stock to end down a modest 1.4 percent on Tuesday, well ahead of much bigger losses for the broader indexes. The unusual second-quarter guidance looks even stranger in light of much more positive second-quarter guidance given a day later by rival Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which said its results will come in at or higher than previous forecasts (company announcement). I’m going to be a bit cynical here and note that Trina was one of two companies whose audit committee chairmen suddenly resigned last month (previous post), which hinted at potential accounting issues within the firm. That said, Trina’s sudden sharp shortfall in quarterly results looks suspiciously like part of an effort to quietly cover up accounting issues that need to be “resolved”. If that’s the case, then the company should be commended on the one hand for resolving those issues, but also criticized for the way in which it did so. Regardless, investors are clearly focused on the future, which includes fresh incentives from Beijing for building new solar power plants (previous post) and a possible pick-up in demand from other global markets. Still, I would be wary of Trina’s stock for the short term, even as the broader solar sector appears on the cusp of a comeback.

Bottom line: The solar sector’s downturn may have bottomed out in the second quarter, but look for continued uncertainty around Trina following the resignation of its audit committee chairman.

天合光能(Trina Solar)(TSL.N)刚刚下调了第二季度光伏电池出货量和毛利率的预估，使其对今年馀下时间作出的靓丽前景描绘更显诡异，可能也为苦苦挣扎的光伏产业发出了一个陷入谷底的信号。天合光能在距离季度财报发布仅几天的时间下调预估，预计其光伏电池出货量比此前预估低10%，而毛利率相比此前预估则降幅更大，达到20%。但奇怪的是，天合光能依然坚持此前65%-70%的全年出货量增长预估，因公司预计今年下半年将有大转机。这种逻辑相悖的消息起初吓坏了投资者，他们先抛售天合光能的股票，随後又买进，造成该公司周二股价收低1.4%，但依然好于大盘表现。而其竞争对手英利绿色能源(YGE.N)一天后表示该公司业绩符合或高于其此前预估，英利第二季度更为正面的预估，使得天合光能异乎寻常的第二季度预估看起来更为奇怪。我在这里要做个小小地恶意揣测，并要指出天合光能的独立董事兼审计委员会主席上月突然离职，这暗示着公司内部可能潜存着审计问题。这就是说，天合光能大幅下调季度业绩，看起来似乎像在悄然掩盖“亟需解决的”审计问题。若果真如此，那麽我一方面既要称赞天合光能对这些问题的解决，又要批评其解决之道。无论如何，投资者明显着眼的是未来，包括中国对修建新的光伏发电的最新激励措施以及全球其他市场可能增加的光伏需求。但我短期内对天合光能的股价还是有所警惕，即便整个光伏产业似乎都在反弹回归中。

一句话：光伏产业的疲软可能在第二季度见底，但伴随着审计委员会主席的辞职，天合光能似乎还有不确定性。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

◙ Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

◙ More Solar Woes at Trina, Renesola 昱辉阳光、天合光能：旧伤未去，新伤又来