Tudou Name Tossed Around as IPO Looms IPO临近 土豆网新闻多

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I have to say that video sharing site Tudou gets this year’s award for most mentioned company in media reports in the run-up to its bumpy IPO, with new wrinkles in this strange story sprouting up in the media almost daily. After reporting last week the company was in talks to sell part or all of itself to leading online search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post), Chinese media went on to say the company was also in talks with leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU), as well as another online video site called LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104). (English article; Chinese article) Meantime, international media reported about the same time late last week that Tudou’s $180 million IPO — which was originally set for late last year but got delayed due to Chairman Gary Wang’s messy divorce — had been fully subscribed, with pricing set for Tuesday and an official trading debut on Wednesday. So, what’s going on here? Clearly Wang is trying to wheel and deal his way to a deal that will give his company the highest valuation possible, and he’s most probably seeing better valuations from a sale of his company than he is for an IPO. Cash-rich Baidu and Youku are most likely offering the best deals, but both of those would almost certainly require Wang to step down as chairman — something he and heads of similar Chinese companies are usually reluctant to do. An IPO would obviously allow Wang to stay on as chairman, and it’s quite possible the company or its bankers are deliberately leaking rumors about acquisitions to the media to stir up investor interest in an otherwise chilly IPO market. If I were a bettor, I would put my money on the IPO going forward, with a 70 percent chance of success. Among the private buyers, Baidu probably stands a better chance than Youku, as the former can offer more money and also the small possibility that Wang can continue to run the business. Stay tuned for an interesting finale to this rocky but colorful IPO later in the week.

Bottom line: Tudou is likely to go ahead with its $180 million IPO, declining lucrative buyout offers as chairman Gary Wang opts for control of the company over cash.

不得不说，土豆网在走向IPO的道路上，算得上是今年中国媒体提及最多的一家企业了，关於土豆的新闻几乎天天不缺。上周媒体报导，百度<BIDU.O>正在洽购土豆，中国媒体现在又称土豆也在与优酷网<YOKU.N>、乐视网<300104.Z>洽谈。同时，国际媒体上周大约同一时间报导，土豆1.8亿美元IPO已经获得足额认购，定价日定於本周二，周三为首个交易日。那麽，到底是什麽情况？显然土豆网董事长兼CEO王微有着自己的算盘，想要按照自己的方式为公司争取最高的估值，而且他可能觉得出售公司的估值比IPO的会更高。百度、优酷最有可能给出好报价，但两家公司几乎一定都会要求王微辞任董事长，这是他与其他很多类似中国企业的负责人都不愿意做的事情。IPO显然可以让王微保住董事长的职位，而且极有可能是土豆自己或帮助其上市的投行故意向媒体透露收购传闻，以激起投资者对公司IPO的兴趣。如果要赌的话，我会把钱压在IPO上，胜算七成。土豆的各家求购者中，百度的机会可能要比优酷大一些，因为百度给的钱可能会更多，而且王微还有很小的机会继续管理公司。土豆曲折离奇而又多姿多彩的IPO本周稍晚如何落幕？大家不妨拭目以待。

一句话：土豆可能会继续推进IPO，拒绝其他企业的收购报价，因为在权、钱衡量中，王微更倾向於掌控公司的控制权。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ Tudou IPO Moves Forward Despite Headwinds 土豆网“逆风”上市

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

All Eyes Turn to TV in TCL Comeback

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TCL Corp’s (Shenzhen: 000100) latest results reveal its comeback story is still alive, although the focus has shifted from cellphones to its older TV business as the company refinds its footing in both areas. The latest results show that TCL’s profit more than tripled in the first half of the year to nearly $100 million, while its revenue grew a more modest 18 percent to about $4.2 billion. (English article) The driving force behind its profit growth was the TV business, TCL Multimedia (HKEx: 1070), which returned to profitability after a loss a year earlier and generally poor performance in recent years after its difficult purchase of Thomson Electronics’ TV business in 2005. Strong performance in emerging markets like Brazil and Indonesia were largely to credit, as TCL returned to its roots as an emerging market specialist. The cellphone business, TCL Communication (HKEx: 2618) underwent a similar steep downturn after its purchase of Alcatel’s (Paris: ALUA) cellphone assets around the same time, but came back last year with triple-digit gains on both the top and bottom line as it finally managed to leverage the Alcatel brand name to score major overseas deals. Not too surprisingly, the blistering growth for cellphones slowed quite a bit in the first half, with revenue up just 27 percent and profit up 50 percent. TCL’s charismatic chairman Thomson Li held a news conference to discuss the results, in which he chastised reporters for writing off the Alcatel and Thomson acquisitions as disasters. (Chinese article) I was one of those reporters who considered both purchases disastrous, but will admit that Li seems to have salvaged both deals, largely by shifting all of Thomson’s and Alcatel’s production to China while continuing to use their global brands to develop international sales. For now at least, the big story at TCL’s comeback seems to be shifting to the TV business and its future potential, while the cellphone business looks set for a rapid slowdown.

Bottom line: TCL Corp looks like a good investment bet based on a comeback for its TV business, while its cellphone business looks set to slow sharply after a strong comeback last year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ TCL Comeback Gains Momentum with Italy Deals TCL牵手意大利 复苏之势获动力

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ TCL on the Comeback Trail With Samsung Tie-Up TCL与三星结盟 重振旗鼓

Tencent and Alibaba: It’s Not Easy Being Big 腾讯和阿里巴巴：想当老大不容易

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Internet titans Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) have worked hard over the years to become leaders in their respective spaces, reaping big rewards for shareholders in the process as their profits grew quickly in line with their revenues. But now the pair are suddenly waking up to a mid-life crisis, reflected by their latest quarterly results that showed sharply slowing growth. Alibaba.com, China’s leading B2B website, saw its second-quarter profit rise 29 percent, not bad in number terms but still the lowest rise in a year and a half. (English article) But perhaps more worrying was its drop in paying members, reflecting the simple fact that there are only so many potential companies in China who want to do their buying and selling on the Web. Results for leading online game operator Tencent were equally lackluster and perhaps even more worrisome, with profit up 29 percent, again not bad in absolute terms but the slowest growth rate in 4 years, while margins fell sharply as it spent money on new initiatives. (English article) Since peaking in May, Tencent’s shares are down 23 percent, while Alibaba.com’s are off by nearly half from a high in March. Alibaba investors should get set for a long winter, as the company doesn’t really seem to have any major new growth engines in the pipeline and it appears simply to be trying to squeeze more money out of existing customers — a strategy also being tried by search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) but one that has very limited potential. Tencent looks a bit more interesting, with major new initiatives in the pipeline in the fast-growing but extremely competitive e-commerce and video sharing spaces. Given Tencent’s strong past record at execution, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it find some success in one or both of these areas, helping to restart its fading growth. But regardless, both Alibaba and Tencent are unlikely to see profit or revenue growth again above the 30 percent level anytime soon.

Bottom line: Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba.com are increasingly maturing, and won’t see top or bottom line growth above 30 percent in the next 2 years.

互联网巨头腾讯<0700.HK>和阿里巴巴<1688.HK>过去几年努力成为各自领域的领头羊，并在此过程中为其股东带来了巨额回报。但现如今，这两家企业突然间意识到自己陷入了“中年危机”，最明显的表现就是，最新的季度财报显示其增速骤然放缓。阿里巴巴第二季度利润上升29%，虽然不算太差，但仍是一年半中增速最慢的一个季度。但更令人担心的是，其商户的不断减少，这也反映出一个简单的事实，即中国只有少部分潜在企业愿意在网上进行交易。腾讯的业绩也乏善可陈，可能甚至更糟，其第二季度利润同比增长29%，从绝对数字来看并不算太差，但却是其四年来增速最慢的一次，同时由於其大举投资新项目，利润率也大幅下滑。自5月份达到峰值以来，腾讯的股价已下跌23%，而阿里巴巴的股价则从3月份的高点下跌了近一半。阿里巴巴投资者应做好应对漫长冬季的准备，因该公司似乎并无任何新的重要增长引擎可推出，公司似乎也只是试图从现有客户身上赚取更多钱。互联网搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>也在尝试这一策略，但其效果非常有限。腾讯的情况看起来更为有趣，该公司计划在快速发展但竞争异常激烈的电子商务和视频分享领域推出新的项目。鉴於腾讯过去强有力的执行记录，如果发现腾讯在上述两领域或其中之一获得成功，我并不会感到意外，这也有助於其重启增长态势。但无论如何，阿里巴巴和腾讯的利润或营收都不太可能在短时间内再次回到30%以上。

一句话：腾讯和阿里巴巴都日益成熟，但在未来两年内其营收或利润增长都不太可能回到30%以上。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

News Digest: August 13-15, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 13-15. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Youku, LeTV In Talks to Acquire Tudou – Sources (Youku article; LeTV article)

◙ TCL (Shenzhen: 000100) H1 Net Profit Up 242 Pct (English article)

◙ New China Life Insurance Said to Plan $4 Billion IPO as Early as October (English article)

◙ Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) to Report Q2 Results on August 24 (PRNewswire)

◙ Huawei Plans U.K. Smartphone Debut in Battle With Android Handset Makers (English article)

Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

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The first quiet signs have emerged that a price war is building in China’s chilly auto market, with Ford (NYSE: F) disclosing that it’s coming under pricing pressure as sales slow under economic cooling measures from Beijing. (English article) The comments from Ford’s Asia chief at a recent US event were very low key, only saying the company has seen pricing pressure in the last 3-4 months. He didn’t give any numbers, but I’ve been  in the news business long enough to know that executives don’t usually make this kind of comment unless they want to brace investors for disappointment or worse. After more than a year of blistering growth of 50 percent or more, fueled in large part by incentives from Beijing, China’s auto market has slowed considerably in the last few months to low single-digit growth and even contraction. Unit auto sales were up an anemic 2 percent in July (English article), but that number says nothing about prices, which I suspect are down 5-10 percent from the previous year as many larger cities limit new buying to ease congestion. The pressure is likely to intensify in the coming year, as billions of dollars in spending on new capacity announced during the boom period start to come online. Smart players like General Motors (NYSE: GM) are bracing themselves for the coming China winter by exporting their China models and designs to other emerging markets and by developing new brands aimed at smaller cities where the slowdown won’t be as big. GM officially launched its made-in-China Baojun brand just last week (English article), and said earlier this week it will use made-in-China kits to build a locally developed minivan in India. (English article) But while GM and its China partner, SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) have the resources to make such protective moves, other domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and Geely (HKEx: 165) look much more vulnerable, and are likely to see their profits drop sharply in the months ahead or even sink into the loss column.

Bottom line: Ford’s recent comments indicate prices are dropping in China’s overheated car market, with the pressure likely to continue for at least the next year.

有初步迹象表明中国汽车市场将打响价格战，汽车巨头福特(F.N)称感受到定价压力，因中国旨在令经济降温的措施导致汽车销售放缓。福特负责亚太业务的负责人此番表态相当平和，只是说过去三四个月中感受到了定价压力。他未提供数据，但我在媒体界多年，深知企业高管很少会作这样的表态，除非他们希望投资者作好悲观准备。去年得益于政府刺激措施，中国汽车市场增速至少50%，而过去几个月则明显速度放缓，甚至到了萎缩的地步。7月汽车销量增长2%，但这根本没有反映出价格因素，我推测汽车价格同比下降了5-10%，因为许多大城市出台限购令，以解决道路拥堵。未来一年车市价格压力可能加深，因厂商扩充产能的投资将到位。象通用汽车(GM.N)这样精明的厂商已经相应作了调整，将在中国生产车型和设计向其他新兴市场推广，并面向小城市开发新的品牌，因为这些城市的汽车销售放缓程度没那麽严重。通用上周刚刚正式推出“中国制造”的品牌“宝骏”，且本周稍早称，将对在中国设计的小型货车进行改造，在印度生产和销售。虽然通用与上汽(600104.SS: 行情)有足够资源采取这类自我保护性举措，但其他国内汽车厂商，譬如比亚迪(1211.HK)和吉利(0175.HK)则更容易受到冲击，未来数月利润可能大幅下降，甚至可能出现亏损。

一句话：福特近期言论意味着，中国汽车售价将呈下滑，这样的压力可能至少在未来一年中将持续。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹：价格战越来越近？

◙ BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪：累了？

CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

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The conservative China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), the nation’s second largest lender, may be preparing to take its first big steps onto the global stage, with an Indonesian deal that looks interesting though a bit risky. Media are reporting that the bank is in talks to buy a stake in closely held PT Bank Maspion Indonesia, whose owners want to sell more than 50 percent. (English article) The news comes not long after reports  that CCB’s bigger rival, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), was in talks to buy a controlling stake in the Argentine unit of South Africa’s Standard Bank for $700-$800 million, as China’s largest lenders, with encouragement from Beijing, seek to spread their wings beyond their protected home market. (previous post) At first glance the potential CCB deal looks interesting. Indonesia is a developing market with many similar characteristics to China, which would allow CCB to leverage its experience to do business there. What’s more, PT Bank looks very manageable in terms of its size, with a modest value of around $200 million. My major concern comes in terms of regulation. According to the media reports, Indonesia is currently considering legislation that would limit foreign shareholders to holding minority stakes in banks. If PT Bank Maspion were a large lender with an experienced management team, this restriction might be less worrisome. But considering its smaller size, the lack of majority control could severely limit CCB’s ability to manage this new asset if it ended up buying a stake, restricting it to the role of a largely passive investor as its Indonesian management ran the show. That said, perhaps CCB would be better off as a more passive investor for its first major purchase abroad, allowing it to become more familiar with doing business outside China while leaving day-to-day business to locals who know the market better. On the whole, I would weigh in as neutral on this deal, which looks like a relatively risky but manageable first step onto the global stage for CCB.

Bottom line: CCB’s potential purchase of a minority stake in a mid-sized Indonesia lender looks like a risky but manageable first step for the bank onto the global stage.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

◙ Bocom Chases Global I-Bank Business With Big Bucks 交通银行打算花大价钱吸引投行人才

◙ Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

News Digest: August 12, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 12. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ 22 More Fake Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Stores Crop Up in Kunming (Chinese article)

◙ Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) Profit Grew 28 Pct in Q2 (Businesswire)

◙ SouFun (NYSE: SFUN) Announces Q2 and H1 Results and Other Matters (Businesswire)

◙ Renren (NYSE: RENN) Announces Unaudited Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

◙ China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941) iPhone Users Top Unicom’s (HKEx: 762) in Beijing (Chinese article)

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

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Finally there’s a bit of news out ther about online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) that I like, with Chinese media reporting the company is in talks to buy Tudou, one of China’s top online video sites. (English article; Chinese article) Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider Baidu a classic one-note samba, relying on search-related advertising for almost 100 percent of its revenue despite numerous failed attempts to diversify into other businesses. (previous post) But in this case, a purchase of Tudou, a relatively successful company in the online video sharing space, would make great sense for both companies and could ultimately help Baidu achieve its evasive goal of deriving profits from something besides search. Tudou is clearly in dire need of cash, based on its determination to go forward with a delayed IPO despite facing the worst market for such offerings since the financial crisis of 2008. (previous post) So from Baidu’s perspective, it could probably take advantage of Tudou’s need for cash and turbulence on Wall Street to buy the company for a very good price. From Tudou’s perspective, Baidu would be an extremely strong partner in two ways. Most importantly, Baidu could tinker with its search results, which it already frequently does, to favor Tudou over other video sharing sites like industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU). In addition, Baidu could also use its industry clout to help Tudou sign favorable licensing deals for legal video, as Beijing pressures China’s Web firms to offer more legitimate content instead of the pirated material they have thrived on for years. Youku made a step in that direction when it signed a deal in June with Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) (previous post), and Baidu itself signed a similar tie-up with major music labels last month. (previous post) If Baidu does reach a deal for Tudou, it will have a bit of work to do, as the company posted a loss of $12 million in the second quarter, triple the $4 million loss for Youku. Baidu Chairman Robin Li could also find it challenging to work with Tudou founder Gary Wang, whose messy divorce held up his company’s IPO which was originally slated for late last year. But Wang’s weak financial position may leave him with little choice than to sell out, with Baidu offering one of the best potential partners.

Bottom line: Baidu could achieve its elusive goal of diversifying beyond its core online search business with a potential purchase of online video sharing site Tudou.

百度(BIDU.O)终于有条合我口味的新闻了。据中国媒体报导，百度正在洽谈收购土豆网。经常浏览我博客的读者们知道，我一直认为百度是只有一个舞步的桑巴，近乎100%的收入依赖于搜索相关的广告，虽然有一些尝试业务多元化的动作，但多是无果而终。但就此案例而言，土豆网是一个运作相对成功的网上视频分享网站，购买它对两家公司都有很大意义，而且最终有可能帮助百度增加营收渠道。土豆如此糟糕时机下仍坚持IPO，明显是急需资金。所以，从百度的角度出发，充分利用土豆的资金需求以及华尔街的震荡，它也许可以用很好的价格买下土豆。再从土豆的角度来看，百度是一个非常强有力的合作夥伴。最重要的是，百度可以对页面搜索结果稍作调整，使土豆的内容相比优酷等竞争对手显示在搜索结果更有利的位置。另外，百度还可利用其行业影响力，帮助土豆签下有利的合法视频许可协议。目前政府正施压中国网络企业提供合法内容，弃用盗版内容。优酷网(YOKU.N)在这一方向上已经迈出了一步，6月份公司与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)签署合作协议。而百度上月也宣布与多家唱片公司联手合作。如果百度确实为土豆达成了类似协议，那麽土豆可能有一些功课要做，因为公司第二季度报告亏损1,200万美元，是优酷的三倍。此外，百度董事长李彦宏也可能会感到与土豆创始人王微共事有些麻烦。要知道土豆网IPO原本定在去年底，正是因为王微复杂的离婚纠纷拖延了IPO时间。但是鉴于土豆网目前财务状况，王微除了出售公司外选择寥寥，而百度正好是最好的潜在合作夥伴之一。

一句话：百度如果收购土豆，可能从单一搜索业务模式逐渐走向多元化。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

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Telecoms firm ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) latest earnings show a sharp divergence in its top and bottom line growth, the result of  a big new gamble on its small but fast-growing smartlphone business that it hopes will offset sluggish growth at its networking equipment unit. The company says  its revenue grew around 30 percent in the second quarter, a strong improvement over the first quarter, but that its latest quarterly profit actually fell more than 20 percent, a sharp about-face from 16 percent growth in the previous quarter. (company announcement) It cites an aggressive gamble on its smartphone business behind the profit decline, as it sells its smartphones, mostly based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system, at ultra-low prices in a bid to become one of the world’s top 5 vendors in the next 2 years. ZTE said its smartphone unit sales rose 400 percent to 5 million in the first six months of the year, even as gross margins for all handsets fell sharply on its aggressive smartphone pricing. A company source previously told me ZTE hopes to sell $600 million worth of smartphones in the US this year alone (previous post), and based on reports I’ve seen saying many of those phones could retail for as little as $100, ZTE will need to sell more than 6 million of those phones in the US alone to meet that target. Such plays for rapid market share gains are a risky bet, with Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) serving as a classic case of a company whose willingness to gain share at the expense of profits nearly drove it to bankruptcy a decade ago and are threatening to undermine it again. Still, I would give this ZTE initiative a 50-50 chance of success, provided it can really post the rapid market share gains it expects in the next 1-2 years and then use its new clout to slow raise prices to more sustainable levels. In this case execution will be key, which could work to ZTE’s disadvantage as this such strong execution isn’t typically a strong point for many Chinese firms.

Bottom line: ZTE’s decision to sacrifice short-term profits to rapidly expand its smartphone business is a risky but potentially profitable bet, with a 50-50 chance of success.

在中兴通讯最新财报上，公司营收与利润差异巨大，而原因主要在于其押注规模较小但增长快速的智能手机业务，公司希望利用这块业务来弥补其网络设备业务的缓慢增长。中兴通讯发布业绩快报称，第二季度公司营收增长大约30%，较一季度有很大改善，但是二季度利润下降超20%，而其一季度为16%的正增幅。公司解释称智能手机业务是利润下降原因，因公司为能够未来两年内位列全球五大手机厂商，其智能手机售价非常低。公司还表示，今年上半年其智能手机销量上升400%，达到500万部。一名公司消息人士此前曾向我透露，中兴通讯希望今年在美销售总额达6亿美元的智能手机。而据我所看到的报导，手机售价可能低至100美元，如果按此计算，中兴通讯仅在美国就需要卖出600多万部手机才能实现目标。这种为快速获得市场份额的举动可谓冒险，台湾宏基(2353.TW)就是一个经典案例。该公司通过牺牲利润来换取市场份额，几乎让它在十年前濒临破产。不过，我觉得中兴的这种策略依然有50%的成功机率，前提是中兴真的能在未来1-2年快速获得其预期的市场份额，然後利用其新的影响力逐渐将价格提高至更可持续的水平。在该案例中，执行将是关键，但可能不是中兴的强项，因这种执行力通常不是很多中国企业的强项。

一句话：中兴牺牲短期获利来换取智能手机业务快速发展的决定有风险，但可能也是有利可图的，其成功机率为50%

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

Simcere Suffers Side Effects of Health Care Reform

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I’ve generally been quite bullish on China’s ongoing overhaul of its healthcare system and the huge potential it offers drug makers, but Simcere Pharmaceutical’s (NYSE: SCR) latest results show that like everything else, health care reform also has its downside. Simcere reported its revenue was nearly flat in the second quarter this year versus a year earlier, even as profit from operations grew a more respectable 27 percent. (company announcement) It attributed the anemic top line growth to changes in government pricing policies, a not-so-subtle reference to the fact that Beijing is asking for big price concessions from drug suppliers in exchange for including their products in its new system to provide affordable basic health care throughout the country. Such price squeezing will affect everyone, from Simcere to larger firms like Hisun Pharmaceutical (Shanghai: 600267) and Sinopharm (HKEx:1099), which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone but could cool revenue growth for many of these firms over the next 1-2 years as reform is implemented. Once that pricing pressure is factored in, I would expect to see top line growth for Simcere and its peers return to healthier levels. To combat low margins from drugs sold in the reform program, I also like Simcere’s initiative to focus on developing its own new drugs, which typically command a much better profit margin than the generic drugs that  use formulas whose patents have expired and therefore are available for anyone to manufacture. Simcere’s new joint venture with Merck (NYSE: MRK) (previous post) should help in its new drug development efforts, though again, don’t look for any major contributions on that front for at least the next 2-3 years, which is typically the shortest possible period for new drug development.

Bottom line: Simcere and other Chinese drugmakers will see slow top-line growth in the next 1-2 years, as China squeezes them for price concessions.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Merck Finds Potent China Partner in Simcere 默克牵手先声药业

◙ Pfizer Pairs With China Partner to Tap Health Care Reform 辉瑞与海正合作开拓中国医药市场

◙ Shanghai Pharma IPO Looks Like Good Medicine 上海医药IPO似为一剂良药

News Digest: August 11, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 11. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Baidu （Nasdaq: BIDU) May Acquire Tudou (English article; Chinese article)

◙ ZTE (HKEx: 000063) Announces 1H 2011 Preliminary Earnings Report (Businesswire)

◙ Ford (NYSE: F) Feeling Price Pressure in China (English article)

◙ Tencent (HKEx: 700) warns of more margin pressure as costs build (English article)

◙ SMIC (HKEx: 918; NYSE: SMI) Q2 Profit Drops 6 Pct to $350 Mln (Chinese article)