News Digest: December 6, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on December 6. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone 4S To Go On Sale In 7 Cities on December 16 – Source (Chinese article)

Bank of China (HKEx: 3988) To Step In As Saab Part Owner: Source (English article)

Vancl Completes USD 230 Mln Sixth-Round Funding (English article)

KKR Announces Investment in China Outfitters (Businesswire)

Chow Tai Fook May Beat Prada (HKEx: 1913) to 2011 HK Record in $2.8 Billion IPO (English article)

HK’s Sitoy Targets China Taste For Luxury

A Hong Kong manufacturer called Sitoy Group is trying to position itself as a play on China’s booming market for luxury goods, making handbags for an all-star line-up of big names like Coach and Prada (HKEx: 1913). But anyone wanting to buy into this company, which is revving up for a Hong Kong IPO expected to raise nearly $100 million (English article) might want to take a look at the fine print in its prospectus before plunking down their hard-earned investment dollars. In fact, Sitoy’s top line does look quite attractive, with revenue nearly doubling to an expected HK$2.49 billion this year from HK$1.35 billion in 2009 as the company and its peers ride a boom in demand from newly affluent consumers in China, which is expected to soon overtake Japan to become the world’s leading luxury goods market. (company prospectus) But a closer look at the fine print, on page 86 of the prospectus to be exact, shows that Sitoy’s fashionable handbags sell to its big-name customers for a relatively modest HK$80-$640 each, or about US$10 to $80. That contrasts quite sharply with what the big names charge, with the cheapest bag on Coach’s web site priced at $300, while the cheapest offerings on Prada’s site are mostly in the $1,500 range and higher. Clearly the big-name brands are making a lot more profit off the luxury goods boom than manufacturers like Sitoy, which instead are simply playing a volume game to fuel their top and bottom line growth. I suspect that Sitoy and others who manufacture for the big luxury brands may be able to keep their sales volume growing for another year or so, as millions of newly affluent young Chinese urbanites satisfy their appetite for luxury goods. But look for a sharp slowdown after that, probably in the next 2-3 years, after which Sitoy may look much more mundane than luxurious.

Bottom line: Manufacturers like Sitoy that produce for big luxury brands may see strong growth for the next year on booming demand from China, but could see a sharp slowdown after that.

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InBev Taps China’s Thirst for Luxury Brands 中国人重面子百威英博趁机引入高端啤酒品牌

Youku’s Luxurious Dream 优酷网的奢侈品梦想

Luxury Cars Zoom, But Who Profits?

China Telecom, Unicom Enter Contrition Mode 中国电信和中国联通悔过自新

Following the landmark launch of a probe against them last month for their lock on the domestic broadband Internet market, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) have suddenly become quite contrite in their effort to avoid becoming the first major state-run firms to be found guilty of exploiting the masses through monopolistic practices. The Chinese media were buzzing over the weekend with reports that the 2 companies, China’s second and third biggest telcos, were both promising to end their monopolistic ways and to improve broadband speeds and lower prices if the government would end its investigation. (English article) As a customer of China Telecom, I can happily report that my snail-paced broadband service suddenly became much faster during last week, and that I suspect this new pledge to be more consumer-focused is at least partly and possibly completely behind the change. So what does all this mean for China Telecom and Unicom? The answer is probably a moderate hit to revenues and profitability for their lucrative broadband business in the short- to medium-term, as they are forced to put more resources into providing better service while at the same time lowering fees they charge to consumers. Considering that broadband is an important part of their business, this does look like relatively bad news for both companies, and, as I said when the probe was first announced, I would look for some fairly significant profit erosion in the next 1-2 years, especially for Unicom which has struggled to find its footing in the country’s fast-growing 3G mobile market. (previous post) Meantime, China Telecom continues to look impressive in its aggressive push to become a major player in the telecoms space, this time signing an interesting agreement with US telecoms giant AT&T (NYSE: T) to offer wi-fi roaming services in each others’ markets. (Chinese article) Roaming services for traditional voice services have been common for years now, but in the coming age where mobile companies get more and more of their revenue from data services this is exactly the kind of big global deal that China’s telcos need to be pursuing to position themselves as leaders in the new era of high-speed 3G and 4G telecoms services.

Bottom line: China Unicom and China Telecom will see moderate profit erosion after making concessions to try and end an anti-monopoly probe into their broadband services.

Related postings 相关文章:

Telecoms Investigation Signals Profit Erosion 电信联通遭反垄断调查或侵蚀利润

China Telecoms Faces Power Struggle, Half-Baked 4G 中国电信行业遭遇政府监管权利斗争

Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

Foreign Automakers Uncharged on China EVs 外国汽车商对中国电动汽车市场态度谨慎

A barely noticeable news brief on Nissan’s (Tokyo: 7201) electric vehicle, the Leaf, in today’s China Daily provides some insight on how the big foreign automakers see China as an EV market, spotlighting the uphill battle the country faces in developing this technology. Nearly every foreign automaker has announced one plan or another to import or even build its EVs or hybrid vehicles in China, with GM (NYSE: GM) giving plans for its Chevy Volt and Toyota (Tokyo: 7203) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) all announcing their own initiatives. But most of those plans have been vague at best, reflecting both the fact that technology still needs time to mature and also a high degree of skepticism that Chinese consumers are ready to spend big dollars on alternate energy vehicles, which are typically much more expensive than gas-powered cars and require charging infrastructure that most of China still lacks. The news brief hidden on the inside pages of today’s China Daily says that Nissan recently put 15 of its Leaf EVs on the road in the central Chinese city of Wuhan for test driving. A company spokesman further said that Nissan will continue the tests for a full 3 years, which sounds to me like an incredibly long period for this kind of technology if it was really interested in trying to sell these vehicles in China. In fact, there’s a very real possibility that the technology will be obsolete in 3 years or sooner, meaning the Leaf will probably never see any commercial sales in China at all. My guess is that other foreign automakers will proceed with similarly conservative plans for their EV and hybrid vehicles in China, as all wait to see if government incentives and needed infrastructure develop to make a serious effort worthwhile. If that is indeed what happens, look for EV and hybrid auto sales by foreign automakers in China to number in the thousands of units or less for each of the next 2-3 years, while domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) are left to make a more serious effort at developing what in all likelihood will be a very difficult market.

Bottom line: Foreign automakers like Nissan are taking a very conservative approach to developing China’s green vehicle market, and are unlikely to invest very much in the space.

Related postings 相关文章:

BYD True Test Begins With EV Consumer Roll-Out 比亚迪电动车上市 真正的考验刚刚开始

Beijing Sends Mixed EV Signals 中国应推进电动车基础设施建设和宣传

Hertz, GE Give Jolt to BYD Electric Cars 赫兹新项目为比亚迪“加油

 

News Digest: December 3-5, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on December 3-5. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ US Solar Firms Hurt by Chinese Imports, Trade Panel Says (English article)

China Telecom (HKEx: 728), Unicom (HKEx: 762) Say To Mend Ways After Broadband Probe (English article)

◙ 64 Overseas-Listed China Firms Launch $300 Mln in Share Buybacks – Report (Chinese article)

Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) Reports Q3 Unaudited Results (PRNewswire)

JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO) Completes Acquisition of Solar Silicon Valley (Globe Newswire)

Chip Merger Near, More Consolidation Ahead? 华虹NEC和宏力半导体合并预示未来或有更多整合

As a longtime tech reporter, I was intrigued to see that one of China’s longest running M&A deals that never quite seems to happen has once again popped  into the headlines, perhaps paving the way for an even bigger and sorely needed consolidation in the foundering microchip sector. Industry followers will know that of course I’m talking about a merger between Hua Hong NEC and Grace Semiconductor, both midsized players that hoped to become major forces in the contract chip-making business but never achieved the scale necessary to do that. The 2 sides, and more importantly their impatient investors, have been talking for years about a merger, but this time foreign media are reporting they have actually reached a deal, which should close by year-end. (English article) The new company will have total assets of about $1 billion, according to the report, or roughly equivalent to China’s biggest contract chipmaker, SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI). But considering that SMIC’s market cap now stands at about $1.4 billion and the new company would have a similar profile, this newly merged company will still be a tiny player compared with industry leader TSMC (Taipei: 2330; NYSE: TSM), with a market cap of $63 billion, and even compared to number two player UMC (Taipei: 2303; NYSE: UMC), with a market cap of $5.8 billion. A more interesting proposition would be to see this newly created company merge with SMIC to create a player that  could seriously challenge UMC, at least in terms of scale. SMIC is suffering from its own issues, including a power struggle earlier this year that saw its reputable CEO get ousted (previous post), and an industry downturn that saw it slip back into the red after reporting a year of profits. (previous post) But if the Hua Hong NEC-Grace merger finally does go through, I wouldn’t be surprised to see talks begin within a year for another merger of that company with SMIC as the two companies’ backers look to create a serious new global competitor. I would still have my doubts about whether such a new company could really compete with TSMC and UMC, but at least it would have the size and customer base to make a serious attempt at putting China on the global microchip map.

Bottom line: The merger of Hua Hong NEC and Grace Semi signals consolidation in China’s chip sector may finally be underway, paving the way for a potentially even bigger merger with SMIC.

Related postings 相关文章:

SMIC: Under Fire From All Directions 中芯国际亏损显示其内外交困

SMIC Makes the Right Move With New CEO 中芯国际终於明智换帅

SMIC: Consolidation Ahead 中芯国际任命新高管 或有助於业内合并

 

NetEase Makes Buzz With Buyback, Pigs 网易回购股票和养猪重大决策或在即

There’s a mini-flurry of news out about online game specialist NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), as the normally low-key company generate some buzz, perhaps in the prelude to a bigger announcement about the future of its portal business. None of the latest news is that exciting, but it’s all interesting nonetheless. In perhaps the biggest news, the company has joined many of its US-listed peers in announcing  a share buyback program worth up to $50 million, a relatively small amount but still significant enough to blip onto investor radar screens. (English article) The news helped to lift NetEase shares nearly 3 percent on Wall Street, outpacing the broader market but still a relatively modest move for this kind of company. In a more intriguing piece of news, the company’s soft-spoken founder Ding Lei has said an IPO is in store for his separate pig-raising business next year. (Chinese article) He made the comments in the city of Ningbo at an event centered on agriculture, which seems to be Ding’s relatively newfound passion as he also invests in red wine. The pig venture could actually be an interesting investment proposition, considering China’s love for pork and the country’s recent concerns about food safety. This kind of big publicly-listed pork company could easily become an industry leader, as this kind of massive producer  can better guarantee food quality and safety. In one additional tidbit, NetEase is also reporting on its own news page that it has officially launched a social networking site (SNS) called Lofter. This is probably the least interesting news, as Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) launched a similar product earlier this year to complement its Weibo microblogging service (previous post), and both products will have to compete with more established sites operated by Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin. From my perspective, this recent flurry of news could be a prelude to a decision on what NetEase plans to do with its Internet portal, which was its main business many years ago but later took a back seat to games that now make up the bulk of its revenue. The company said earlier this year it is aiming to revitalize its portal and spin it off (previous post), and I expect this new flurry of news could presage an announcement soon about the portal’s future.

Bottom line: A recent flurry of news from NetEase could presage an announcement about future plans for its portal business, involving a potential sale or  public listing.

Related postings 相关文章:

NetEase Sharpens Up Messaging in Run-Up to Portal Spin-Off 网易剥离门户网站 再度磨砺电邮服务

NetEase Looks to Reinvigorate Portal 网易似要重振门户

Renren Discovers Microblogging Too Late

The9 WoWs Wall Street With New Deal

What a difference a deal makes. That seems to be the lesson for faded online game developer and operator The9 (Nasdaq: NCTY), whose shares have soared on a new licensing deal some 2 years after it disappeared from  investors’ radar screens after losing the rights to its hit game World of Warcraft, or WoW to gaming enthusiasts. The latest development underscores just how dependent companies like The9 and rivals like Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) are on individual hit titles, which can sometimes account for half or more of a company’s top and bottom lines. Interestingly, this latest development has seen The9 turn away from licensing other people’s games toward the developing its own titles, whose costs are much higher but also offers much bigger potential rewards from outside licensing fees for popular titles. In this case, a Singaporean company called Garena Online is paying a nifty $23 million for licensing rights for 6 years to The9’s self-developed game, “Firefall”, in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. (English article) Investors were clearly excited about the deal, bidding up The9 shares by 36 percent since the day before it was announced, presumably as rumors started to circulate in the market. “Firefall” was actually developed by an American company called Red 5, which The9 purchased last year. Red 5’s founder headed the team that developed The9’s former blockbuster World of Warcraft series, which The9 was licensing from Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) before losing those rights to NetEase a couple of years ago. So clearly the market is excited not only about the potential for more “Firefall” licensing deals, but also for the game’s potential in China, one of the world’s biggest online game markets, and perhaps for Red 5’s broader potential to develop more hit titles. It’s a bit ironic that The9 is having to turn to a US game developer to boost its fortunes when it should be able to develop its own titles for much cheaper in China. But when you’re looking for success, you’ll take it anywhere you can get it.

Bottom line: A licensing deal for a new game developed by The9 could signal a change of fortune for the company, but it will have to follow quickly with more such deals to prove the turnaround is real.

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu, Sohu Highlight China Shell Games 百度搜狐拆分业务让金融骗局再度受关注

Sohu’s Blowout Earnings: IPO In Store for Video? 搜狐发喜报视频业务或上市

Perfect World: Trouble Brewing in Online Games? 完美世界调降财测释放行业预警信号

News Digest: December 2, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on December 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Hua Hong NEC, Grace Close To Merger – Sources (English article)

◙ Sina-Invested (Nasdaq: SINA) Mecox Lane (Nasdaq: MCOX) Reports $14.4 Mln Q3 Loss (Chinese article)

Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo Launches Voluntary Real Name System (English article)

NetEase’s (Nasdaq: NTES) Board Approves New Share Repurchase Program (PRNewswire)

Lenovo (HKEx: 992) To Launch Windows-Based Smartphone Next Year (Chinese article)

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Alibaba chief Jack Ma is clearly not someone to take “no” for an answer, as evidenced by his company’s latest effort to assemble a group to buy out its controlling shareholder, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO). There’s not enough detail in a media report (English article) to make too much sense of this latest attempt, after Ma was rebuffed during the summer when he suggested a similar buyout.  But all things considered, this new attempt could stand a much better chance of success. First the facts. The media report on the bid is coming out of New York, meaning the sources are probably private equity firms that are working with Alibaba on the deal, giving the story a bit more credibility. Given the history of Ma’s previous attempt at a buyout (previous post), I suspect that what’s happening now is that this latest group will propose buying out Yahoo and then immediately selling off its core US-based portal operations to a prearranged buyer. Ma’s Alibaba-led group would then be left with Yahoo’s two main Asian assets, namely the 40 percent it owns of Alibaba and its stake in Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689), a joint venture with Japan’s Softbank (Tokyo: 9984). Not surprisingly, Softbank is also a member of the group that Alibaba is leading for this latest buyout deal, according to the report. I have to say that this deal, if this is indeed what’s happening, stands a much better chance of success than Ma’s earlier effort, as it would keep Yahoo’s core operations under US ownership and management while selling its 2 big Asian assets back to their respective local partners. In fact, Reuters reported earlier this week that another major private equity group, Thomas H. Lee Partners, was hoping to do a leveraged buyout of Yahoo’s US business (English article), meaning that bid would fit nicely with a split-up scenario that Alibaba and Softbank may be trying to engineer. According to the latest report, Alibaba would only formally launch its latest offer if Yahoo is interested in such a deal, meaning it won’t consider a hostile bid. But if a break-up is indeed part of Alibaba’s plan that would allow Yahoo’s core operation to remain in US hands, and if the price is right, this latest bid could stand a much better chance of success.

Bottom line: A new buyout attempt of Yahoo by an Alibaba-led group could stand a good chance of success if the aim is a break-up of Yahoo.

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

Alibaba: The Little Genie That Roared?

Alibaba’s Incredible Shrinking Profit Growth 阿里巴巴盈利呈加速放缓趋势

 

LDK Challenges Market With Mega Offer LDK大规模融资方案挑战市场

An interesting test is looming for the struggling solar cell sector, with one of the worst-performing players, LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) preparing a massive new note offering worth 5 billion yuan, or nearly $800 million, that will test both the market and Beijing in different ways. If market forces prevail and Beijing declines to step in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this offer collapse completely due to lack of investor interest, potentially resulting in a financial crisis for LDK that could see it become one of the first major victims of the ongoing crisis among major solar cell makers. So let’s have a more detailed look at the situation. Under its new plan, LDK wants to float 5 billion yuan in new bonds, starting with a first tranche worth about $80 million on December 7, or next Wednesday. (company announcement) It says funds raised will be used to pay off short term debt, meaning LDK is sorely in need of cash to repay some of the billions of dollars in debt it owes that will be maturing in the near term. My guess is that the first tranche of this offering will meet with little or no investor interest unless LDK offers very high interest for the notes, which face a very strong possibility of never maturing if the company ultimately has to file for bankruptcy. But LDK, which recently reported a massive $114 million third-quarter loss and is bleeding cash like many of its peers, can hardly afford such high rates. Thus the only other alternative would be for a major state-run institution, under orders from Beijing, to step in and buy the  notes at a more reasonable interest rate to keep the company afloat for now. The only problem is that kind of intervention would be a clear case of a direct state subsidy to the industry, just as the US is investigating China for unfairly subsidizing its solar cell makers — a charge that Beijing strongly denies. The result of all this is that Beijing will be under huge pressure not to intervene in this case, and the market is also unlikely to want to help this struggling company, meaning LDK’s options could be extremely numbered at the end of the day.

Bottom line: LDK’s upcoming $800 million offering in new notes is likely to fail without help from Beijing, which is under immense pressure to show it doesn’t unfairly support its solar cell makers.

Related postings 相关文章:

Solar Slips Squarely Into the Red 太阳能行业陷入全线亏损

China Retaliates With Own US Solar Probe 中国启动对美可再生能源补贴调查

New Solar Signals: Slowdown Easing Amid Writedowns 太阳能企业减计库存 行业或将开始摆脱危机