Lipton Faces Tempest in a Teabag 立顿遭遇“小题大作”

I’ve been quite amused by the latest Chinese media frenzy surrounding Unilever’s (London: UL) Lipton tea brand, which looks more like a tempest in a teapot than a real scandal. Still, this latest brouhaha does underscore the negative publicity that both foreign and domestic consumer brands face from an increasingly aggressive Chinese media that seems determined to uncover the latest food safety scandal. Let’s take a look at the actual facts, or at least my understanding of them, and readers can decide for themselves what to believe. The case stems from a Greenpeace report saying it found unsafe levels of some pesticide residues in 4 Lipton teabags it selected randomly for testing. (English article) Greenpeace added the “unsafe” definition it used was based on European standards that are stricter than Chinese, and I have no doubt that it knew that part of the message would be largely ignored by local media looking for the latest food safety scandal, in a country where such scandals have become quite common these days. The latest such scandal has seen several capsule makers shut down after media reported they were using industrial gelatin instead of edible consumer grade product. While that kind of scandal is certainly very real, this Lipton story — and several others recently surrounding big foreign names like KFC (NYSE: YUM), WalMart (NYSE: WMT) and Carrefour (Paris: CA) — are far less serious and more often involve mislabeling or other misleading advertising issues rather than actual food safety. So let’s get back to the Lipton story, which saw Chinese health officials themselves come out and say that Lipton’s tea bags were in compliance with Chinese health standards, which Greenpeace no doubt already knew when it issued its original report. Not to be deterred, however, overzealous reporters at the official Xinhua news agency put out their own report after interviewing some tea farmers, who said they did actually spray pesticides on their tea plants even after the health officials  said the residue was carried by the wind from other crops. What’s more, Xinhua and other reports also criticized Lipton for using inferior grade tea in its tea bags. Now wait a minute — I thought this was a story about dangerous pesticides, not about the use of lower quality tea, which should come as a surprise to no one since Lipton isn’t really known as a premium product. At the end of the day, it looks to me like Lipton and Unilever have done nothing really wrong in this case, and that Greenpeace — which does good work in general — knowingly took advantage of the sensitivity about food safety to issue its misleading report. While the story is a bit humorous in my view, I’m sure Lipton is hardly happy as it’s probably losing lots of sales due to the negative publicity. At the end of the day Lipton will obviously survive this pseudo-scandal, which once again underscores the very real dangers that both foreign and domestic consumer brands face from an overzealous Chinese media eager to report the latest food safety scandals.

Bottom line: Lipton has become the latest victim of a pseudo food safety scandal promulgated by an overzealous Chinese media eager to uncover such negative news.

Related postings 相关文章:

McDonalds, Carrefour Latest Targets in Consumer Assault 家乐福、麦当劳被中国政府“点名

Wal-Mart Pork Brouhaha Spotlights Food Risk 沃尔玛“标签门”表明中国严打决心

Starbucks to the Rescue? 星巴克出手救助?

 

Sohu Disappoints Again, LDK Cuts Inspire 搜狐再次令人失望,江西赛维裁员鼓舞人心

As China returns to work after a long May Day holiday, the latest earnings released from online portal Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) and struggling solar firm LDK (NYSE: LDK) are showing that numbers don’t always tell the complete story, or at least not by themselves. In Sohu’s case, many of the numbers look good on the surface, but closer examination points to a sharp advertising slowdown that is already showing signs of hitting the broader Internet sector. Meanwhile, a highly troubled LDK has encouraged investors simply by filing its long-delayed fourth quarter report just before the final deadline, and also by announcing mass layoffs. Let’s look at Sohu first, which reported that revenue rose 30 percent in the first quarter of this year, but that its profit fell by a similar amount. (company announcement) The profit decline obviously wasn’t very helpful, nor was guidance that showed advertising growth would continue to slow. What’s more, Sohu said revenue from its Sogou search engine, hyped in previous quarters as a major new growth area, would roughly double in the current quarter — down sharply from the 184 percent growth in the first quarter and the nearly 250 percent jump in last year’s third quarter. The broader message was clearly not very positive, prompting a sell-off that has seen Sohu shares sink 10 percent since the results were announced. That followed a trend set by online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), whose shares have sagged 5 percent since it delivered a similar message with its latest earnings last week. (previous post) Look for other ad-dependent firms like leading portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and social networking leader Renren (NYSE: RENN) to follow with similar messages in the weeks ahead. Meantime, LDK’s battered shares received a minor but surprising lift from the company’s latest results, in which it reported a massive $600 million loss in last year’s fourth quarter, as net revenue plunged by about half and looked set to tumble further in the current quarter as the global solar industry struggles in its worst-ever downturn. (company announcement) Some might say there was little to be excited about, but clearly some investors saw some light in the report, bidding up LDK’s shares by 7 percent the day after the numbers came out. Investors were apparently encouraged by comments that LDK has cut more than 5,000 jobs this year, and some were also undoubtedly happy that the company managed to file its fourth-quarter report before an April 30 deadline, after which it would have faced possible delisting. The storm is hardly over for LDK, though early signs of improvement for the entire solar sector could eventually help the company to pare its losses if it can managed to stay in business.

Bottom line: Sohu’s latest results point to a sharp advertising slowdown in the months ahead, while LDK will survive for another quarter after managing to report its results just before a deadline.

Related postings 相关文章:

Slowing Ad Revenue Weighs on Phoenix 凤凰新媒体看淡广告收入前景

Apple Feasts on China, Baidu Burps 苹果在华享受盛宴,百度盛宴停顿

LDK Cuts, Suntech Waits As Solar Winter Nears End 太阳能行业冬季将结束:赛维裁员,尚德等待

ConocoPhillips Avoids Major Liability for Spill 康菲对渤海漏油事件赔偿额较低

From a liability standpoint, there’s just no beating China. That’s my key takeaway following reports that US oil company ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has reached a new settlement for damages from a major spill off the northeast China coast last year that are far below anything it would have paid for a similar accident in the west. According to the reports, ConocoPhillips has agreed to pay an additional $191 million to clean up and settle other damage claims related to last year’s spill in the Bohai Bay at the Penglai oil field that it operates under a joint venture with CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO), one of China’s top 3 state-owned oil firms. (English article) ConocoPhillips previously agreed to pay $160 million to clean up the spill that dragged on for months last summer due to persist leaks that polluted an area of about 2,400 square miles, resulting in big damages to fishermen and operators of coastal tourism sites that rely on the area for their livelihood. Under the settlement, CNOOC will also pay $73 million into a fund for environmental initiatives in the Bohai Bay. It’s hard to know how bad the spill really was, since Chinese media were largely banned from any original reporting on it and instead had to rely mostly on information supplied by ConocoPhillips and CNOOC as well as China’s environmental regulator. But any way you look at it, ConocoPhillips got quite a bargain in terms of its liability due to the spill. The most obvious recent comparison would be the Gulf of Mexico spill of 2010 off the southern US that began after an explosion at a drilling operation owned by BP (London: BP). That disaster, the worst of its kind in history, has cost the British oil giant more than $20 billion to date in cleanup and other liability costs, and could end up costing around $30 billion. The disaster was also a public relations nightmare for BP, as global media continually flashed pictures of areas damaged by the leaking oil as well as oil spewing into the sea from the underground well. By comparison, ConocoPhillips hasn’t been subjected to nearly as many negative images in the media, and its liability costs, totaling around $350 million, are only around 1-2 percent those of the Gulf of Mexico spill.  Clearly the big factor limiting liability in the Penglai case is the fact that CNOOC, which owns 51 percent of the project where the disaster occurred, is a major state-owned company. That means that not only is the company well connected politically, but also that Beijing would be reluctant to penalize it too heavily, since it would only ultimately be penalizing itself. That knowledge must be reassuring for investors, who bid down CNOOC’s Hong Kong shares by nearly half last year at the height of the accident but have since then flocked back to the company, in large part after realizing that the disaster would have only a modest impact on its bottom line. By comparison, BP shares also lost about half their value after the Gulf of Mexico disaster, and 2 years later are still 20 percent below their pre-disaster levels. In fact, China’s relatively light liability system applies not only to its major oil giants, but to other industries as well for similar reasons. Many of the country’s liability laws were created when most companies were still state-owned, meaning penalties were often set very low to avoid harming these government-owned enties too much. In the current era where private business is thriving, these relatively low penalties have made the law a relatively toothless force, with the result that many newer, more entrepreneurial companies often also behave irresponsibly because they know the cost of getting caught is quite low. From the perspective of foreign companies like ConocoPhillips, the knowledge that their liability will be relatively limited in the case of disasters or other accidents must be reassuring when they calculate the cost of doing business in China, as reflected by the Penglai settlement, which is actually quite large by Chinese standards. As long as such penalties remain relatively low, look for both domestic and foreign companies to disregard the liability issue as a major risk when doing business in China — something that’s good for the bottom line but less positive for responsible business practice.

Bottom line: ConocoPhillips’ modest settlement related to a major oil spill once again underscores the low risk of liability stemming from accidents and other legal claims in China.

Related postings 相关文章:

Stumbling CNOOC Replaces Chief Executive 中海油换将李凡荣接棒CEO

China Makes Up Its Mind: Penalty Reform 中国终于下决心:改革惩罚制度

Bohai Spill: A Slippery Mess for CNOOC 中海油的漏油危机

News Digest: April 28-May1, 2012 报摘: 2012年4月28日-5月1日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 28-May 1. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China’s Big Four Banks Hit By Slowdown, Costs (English article)

Gapeng CEO Resigns (English article)

Tencent (HKEx: 700) Soso to Make Large Scale Staff Cuts – Source (English article)

◙ Whitman Makes First China Trip Since Becoming Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) CEO (Chinese article)

People’s Daily Website Rises 73 Percent on Trading Debut (Chinese article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

LaShou: On the Cusp of Implosion? 拉手网或已面临生死抉择

New developments are happening rapidly at group buying leader LaShou, which appears to be on the cusp of a meltdown as it runs out of money in the brutally competitive sector. As many of us prepare for the May 1 Labor Day holiday that marks the start of spring, many who follow this company may be wondering if LaShou will still be in business by summertime. In the latest development of this fast evolving story, domestic media are reporting a mass resignation of many top LaShou executives in recent days, including its top regional managers in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as a vice president. (Chinese article) That exodus would come only days after the company reportedly cut 40 percent of its technical staff in what looks like a desperate attempt to conserve cash. (previous post) These kinds of drastic cuts and resignations may indeed save cash, but if they continue there may not be any company left to operate. The rapid series of events seems to point to a company in crisis, which has  been building for more than a year as a natural clean-up takes place in China’s overcrowded and unruly group buying space. LaShou made headlines a year ago when the company, then just 1 year old, raised a cool $100 million from a group of investors hoping it would become the next Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN), the US company that pioneered the group buying concept. (previous post) Back then it was saying it wouldn’t make an IPO for at least the next 1 to 2 years. But then investor sentiment abruptly cooled toward the sector as competition heated up, leaving LaShou and many of its peers short of cash after most expanded rapidly earlier in the year. LaShou tried to raise new funds through a New York IPO last fall, but had to indefinitely postpone the plan after the US securities regulator reportedly voiced concerns about its accounting. The company was reportedly trying to relaunch its IPO in the last few weeks; but we have yet to see any public filings and if these latest reports are true I seriously doubt anyone will want to invest even if it does file for an IPO. Clearly things are happening rapidly now, which means we will probably see LaShou either close or merge with a rival in the very near future — in what would be the biggest consolidation move to date in the group buying space. A number of companies have already merged or are on the brink of closure, so LaShou certainly wouldn’t be the first in this latest trend, though it would certainly be the most dramatic. If I were betting, I would predict the chances of a merger are better than 50 percent, with a profitable rival like Dianping or even a non-group buying company like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) or Tencent (HKEx: 700) stepping in to acquire the company for a very low price. Then again, there is also the very real chance that LaShou could close, though I would put that chance at 30 percent or less. Either way, I would be surprised if this company is still in business as an independent group buying site by the time summer arrives.

Bottom line: A new exodus of top executives at LaShou reflects an accelerating cash crunch, with an an acquisition of the company the most likely outcome within the next 1-2 months.

Related postings 相关文章:

IPO Chill Bites LaShou, China Auto 中资企业赴美上市连遭冷遇

55Tuan + Ganji: Group Buying Clean-Up Acclerates 窝窝团携手赶集网:团购洗牌加速

Investors Shun Struggling Groupon.cn, Yaodian100 投资者规避挣扎中的团宝网和耀点100

Bank of China Results: Downturn Ahead 中行业绩黯淡 或预示银行业将迎来低迷期

Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601398) made news earlier this week when it became China’s first member at the prestigious London Metals Exchange (English article), but its latest headlines are far less positive as it reported lackluster growth in the first quarter that was below market expectations. (earnings announcement; English article) The 10 percent profit growth for the quarter was less than half the 28 percent growth rate from a year earlier, when Bank of China and its peers were reaping big new profits after a lending binge ordered by Beijing to stimulate the domestic economy during the global economic crisis. With the economy now showing signs of slowing sharply as the government tries to cool the real estate market and tame inflation, many fear that Chinese banks could start to see many of the loans they made during that binge start to sour. Recent weakness in the stock market, following a rally early in the year, could add to the problems, as many recent bank loans have gone to fund stock buying. From a purely numerical perspective, Bank of China’s 10 percent profit rise doesn’t look too bad, since that kind of growth rate is certainly respectable. But more worrisome is growth rate’s slowing, which is likely to accelerate in the next 2 quarters and could even turn negative by the end of the year. Bank of China is one of the nation’s top 4 lenders, and first-quarter results will come out later today from the other 3, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939) and Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288). I would expect all 3 of the other big lenders to report slowing profit growth as well, signalling a recent rally for their stocks could soon be finished. Most of China’s major bank stocks performed poorly for most of last year on concerns that they would soon face a flood of bad loans after the lending binge of 2009 and 2010. But most have bounced back since then as Beijing took steps to address the problem, including allowing many lenders to raise billions of dollars in new capital to strengthen their balance sheets. Bank of China’s own shares have risen nearly 50 percent since hitting a low early last October. Perhaps sensing that the rally may soon be over, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) became the latest major shareholder in a Chinese bank to sell down its stake earlier this month, dumping more of its stock in ICBC. (previous post) Goldman joined Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C), which last year also sold off large stakes in China Construction Bank and Pudong Development Bank (Shanghai: 600000), respectively, partly due to concerns about a looming Chinese banking crisis. Following this lackluster Bank of China earnings report, investors will be watching closely to see if the other 3 banks also report weak earnings, and also if any are showing signs of growing bad loans. If the reports are weak, which seems likely, look for a sell-off in Chinese banking shares next week, which could mark the beginning of a long downturn for the sector.

Bottom line: Bank of China’s lackluster first-quarter report could mark the beginning of a long downturn for Chinese lenders and their stocks.

Related postings 相关文章:

Goldman Flees ICBC as Bank Crisis Looms 中国银行业危机隐现 高盛迅速转让工行股票

UnionPay Stirs IPO Pot With Big Numbers 银联有望上市

AgBank Results: First Look at Banking Winter 中国农业银行财报:银行业的冬天

Retail: Tesco Goes Online, Perry Ellis in New JV 零售:乐购推出网购,派瑞•艾力斯成立合资企业

Let’s start off this Friday before the long Labor Day weekend with a couple of retail items, one from British grocery giant Tesco (London: TSCO) in the online space and another from mainstream clothing maker Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY), which is entering China with a new joint venture. The Tesco plan attests to the incredible popularity of buying things over the Internet in China. As an American living in China, I’ll be the first to say the growing Chinese fondness for buying things online is quite unlike anything I’ve ever seen in the west. Nearly anything can be ordered over the Internet these days, from a McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) hamburger to books, clothing and just about any other merchandise you can think of. Now Tesco will be adding grocery store items to that list, according to a media report citing a company spokeswoman. WalMart (NYSE: WMT) is also playing in the online grocery game through its investment in Yihaodian, while Carrefour (Paris: CA) is developing the space through a tie-up with a Thai partner. This kind of online service differs from many more traditional ones because deliveries take place very soon after an order is placed, and same-day delivery is essential. But the economics for this kind of initiative seem to work in China, thanks to its high population density and the fondness for shopping online to avoid the throngs of people and long lines at grocery stores. I would expect this kind of initiative to be quite successful if Tesco and other big names can execute their plans well, perhaps meaning trouble for smaller operators like Lianhua (HKEx: 980). The other retail news will see Perry Ellis form a joint venture with local partner China Outfitters (HKEx: 1146) to open new stores selling the US company’s Manhattan brand. (company announcement) The partnership will initially focus on big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with the first store set to open by the end of this year. This tie-up looks a lot like another one announced last November by Gap (NYSE: GPS), another mainstream US retailer, which said it planned to have 15 stores in China by the end of its current fiscal year and 45 within a year of that. (previous post) The arrival of these more mid-range retailers reflects the emergence of a growing middle class in China, who like to enjoy higher quality products like fashionable clothing and pricey lattes from Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) but don’t want to pay the big prices for luxury brands. Perry Ellis and the Gap are joining even bigger chains like H&M (Stockholm: HMb) and Uniqlo (Tokyo: 9983) in their China expansions, and I don’t really see any problems yet as this segment of the market is growing so quickly it can probably support quite a number of well-run players. Look for more similar mainstream foreign clothing chains to join this trend in the next couple of years, and also for possibly 1 or 2 to withdraw as they discover that a big market doesn’t necessarily guarantee success.

Bottom line: Tesco’s testing of online sales reflects the popularity of e-commerce in China, while Perry Ellis’ new joint venture reflects the big opportunity offered by a growing middle class.

Related postings 相关文章:

E-Commerce: 360Buy Explores IM, Wal-Mart Gets Serious 京东商城内测即时通讯工具,沃尔玛有意控股一号店

Gap’s China Plan: Chasing the Middle End Gap锁定中国中产阶层

McDonalds, Carrefour Latest Targets in Consumer Assault 家乐福、麦当劳被中国政府“点名

News Digest: April 27, 2012 报摘: 2012年4月27日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 27. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ iPad Talks: Proview Lawyer Says Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Becoming More Positive (Chinese article)

Bank of China (HKEx: 3988) Announces Q1 Results (HKEx announcement)

Sinopec (HKEx: 386) Announces Q1 Results (HKEx announcement)

Perry Ellis (Nasdaq: PERY) Forms Greater China JV With Manhattan Brand (Businesswire)

Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) Says TD-SCDMA/EDGE Android Platforms Now Available (PRNewswire)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

China-Hollywood Lovefest Continues With Latest Deal 小马奔腾携手数字王国 中国与好莱坞恋情继续

The new love affair between China and Hollywood seems to be growing day by day, even as signs of some minor alarm bells emerge in Washington at the rapid development of this budding romance. The latest twist in the China-Hollywood saga has Digital Domain (NYSE: DDMG), a leading visual effects  company, teaming with Chinese partner Galloping Horse Film in a joint venture production house that will initially use Digital Domain’s technology to convert traditional films into 3D. (company announcement) But even as news of this latest Hollywood tie-up emerges, other media are reporting that the US securities regulator has informed several of the major studios, including Disney (NYSE: DIS) and DreamWorks, that they are being investigated for matters related to China. (English article) Perhaps not coincidentally, both Disney and DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) have both announced new animation joint ventures in China this year, marking major milestones as Beijing finally opens up the country’s long-closed media sector to foreign investment. (previous post) Let’s look first at the Digital Domain venture, which the partners are saying is designed to meet growing Chinese demand for big-budget films with all the latest visual effects, which are often quite costly to produce. The venture will initially be quite small, with Galloping Horse providing $50 million to build a facility and Digital Domain providing technology and training expertise. But obviously it can be quickly expanded if and when demand for its services grows, something that looks likely as China is already the world’s second largest movie market. This tie-up follows the Disney and DreamWorks ventures announced over the last 3 months, as well as another pending joint venture between US home shopping channel operator QVC and China’s leading radio broadcaster, China National Radio. (previous post) Perhaps in reaction to this sudden and fast-evolving love affair, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly sent letters to 4 studios informing them they’re under investigation, according to foreign media, citing unnamed sources. No reason for the investigations is given, but speculation is high that the studios may be suspected of bribing Chinese  officials to get more of their films shown in China under the nation’s strict quota system that allows only 20 foreign films into the market each year. This investigation could ultimately result in 1 or 2 resignations, but is unlikely to have any major effect on the studios. Instead, it may be the US government’s more subtle way of telling the studios that they’re welcome to join hands with Chinese partners, but they also need to behave according to international norms and avoid becoming too hypnotized by the illusory myth of 1.3 billion potential movie viewers and TV watchers.

Bottom line: Digital Domain’s new joint venture is the latest advance in the growing love affair between China and Hollywood, which may be raising concerns in Washington.

Related postings 相关文章:

QVC Opens Shop in China QVC与中央人民广播电台合作运营电视购物频道

Disney, Tencent Tie-Up to Animate China 迪斯尼、腾讯合作研发动漫

Facebook, DreamWorks in Latest China Moves Facebook、梦工厂在华最新动向

New China Noise in iPad Dispute Bad for Apple 政府官员发表评论对苹果iPad之争不利

The latest noise coming from the high-profile trademark dispute over the iPad name doesn’t look too good for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), whose assertion that it legally owns the iPad name in China is being undermined by comments from one of the few government officials to comment on the matter. I wouldn’t read too much into the comments, as China often engages in this kind of media-based debate to gauge public sentiment on less sensitive commercial issue. Still, the fact that a government official is making comments that appear to favor the plaintiff in the matter, in this case a near-bankrupt company called Proview, indicate that a ruling against Apple is a distinct possibility. Then again, the comments could also be a quiet pressure tactic to get Apple to negotiate, which it has reportedly been reluctant to do as it believes it will win the case and doesn’t want to appear to be getting blackmailed. Let’s look at the actual comments, which have a senior official from the State Administration for Industry and Commerce saying that Proview is the legal registrant of the iPad name in China. (English article) In fact, anyone who has followed this case closely already knows that this is true. Based on my understanding, Proview was obligated by a larger global agreement several years ago to transfer the iPad name to Apple in China, but then the transfer failed to take place for what may have been technical reasons. So now instead of honoring its previous obligations, Proview is taking advantage of the situation to try and get Apple to buy the iPad name again, only this time for a much bigger price. The whole case is taking place in a South China courtroom, where the judge is apparently trying to mediate the dispute to find a solution that will make everyone happy. But Proview lawyers have indicated that Apple doesn’t want to negotiate. The US tech giant has also used other channels outside the courtroom to make its case, including a recent visit to top leaders by Apple CEO Tim Cook, and its recent decision to withhold its latest iPad from China until the dispute is resolved. (previous post) This latest comment from the government official doesn’t really state anything new, but the fact the official made the comment at all means the government probably wants Apple to show a little more willingness to negotiate in the case and provide everyone with a face-saving compromise. If Apple refuses to do that, it could very well find the court ruling against it, meaning legal iPads may not be available in China — which now accounts for a fifth of Apple’s sales — for a long time.

Bottom line: The latest comments from a government official in the iPad trademark dispute may be aimed at pressuring Apple to negotiate a settlement in the case.

Related postings 相关文章:

Apple Pressures Beijing With iPad Snub 苹果在华不售新iPad向中国政府施压

Apple Feasts on China, Baidu Burps 苹果在华享受盛宴,百度盛宴停顿

More Proview Empty Talk in iPad Dispute 唯冠寻求禁售新款iPad将是徒劳之举

 

IPOs: Fosun Pharma Tries Again, China Auto Stalls 上市:复星医药再次尝试,神州租车紧急暂停

The prolonged winter for Chinese stocks listing overseas is clearly continuing, based on the latest IPO news that has seen one company delay its planned New York offering while another is making a second try at a Hong Kong listing. What’s perhaps significant in both of these cases is that neither company is a riskier tech start-up, and instead both come from mature industries with more dependable track records, meaning this IPO winter could be longer and deeper than many initially expected. The first development has seen auto rental specialist China Auto delay its already late New York IPO due to anemic demand; while the second has seen drug maker Fosun Pharmaceutical relaunch its own Hong Kong IPO after abandoning the deal last year. Let’s first look at China Auto, whose last-minute decision to delay its IPO should come as a surprise to no one. (Chinese article) Signs of trouble were already emerging earlier this week for what would have been the second offering this year by a Chinese firm in New York, where investor sentiment remains weak following a series of accounting scandals last year. Foreign media previously reported the offering, which initially hoped to raise up to $300 million when China Auto made its first public filing in January, was getting anemic demand and that buyers had ordered only half of the shares for sale just a day before the offering was set to price. I predicted the offering could ultimately raise around a quarter of its original target, and now it appears perhaps even that was an optimistic forecast. (previous post) In light of this latest delay, I wouldn’t be surprised if China Auto abandons the offering completely and waits for sentiment to improve. Meantime, Fosun Pharmaceutical has been approved to raise up to $800 million in a Hong Kong offering, according to numerous media reports. (English article) Anyone with a long enough memory might recall that Fosun Pharmaceutical originally filed to make a Hong Kong IPO worth up to $1 billion a little more than a year ago, but then never completed the plan. (previous post) No reason was ever given for the withdrawal of last year’s plan, which should have been attractive as it offered a window into China’s fast-growing health care industry. Clearly sentiment was much better at this time last year, so the fact that Fosun Pharma is relaunching its IPO in such a weak climate now probably reflects that it desperately needs cash. If that’s the case, look for this offering to also meet with weak demand, and for the company to ultimately raise far less than the $800 million it is targeting.

Bottom line: The latest IPO developments from China Auto and Fosun Pharma indicate the current winter for Chinese overseas IPOs could last for at least a few more months.

Related postings 相关文章:

IPO Chill Bites LaShou, China Auto 中资企业赴美上市连遭冷遇

IPOs: China Auto Slashes, People’s Daily Marches Ahead IPOs:神州组车减,人民网启动

Fosun Pharma Offers Window to China Healthcare Reform