Journalist China

You certainly have to give Huawei Technologies credit for taking a long-term approach to cracking the difficult but lucrative US market. After being rejected twice in previous US initiatives, one to buy former rival and joint venture partner 3Com and another to buy a small firm called 3Leaf (previous post), Huawei seems to be taking a softer, friendlier approach to try and convince wary US politicians it’s not just an arm of the Chinese government. In its latest move on the softer side, Huawei has just announced it is setting up a cloud computing R&D center in the Canadian capital with Carleton University and Canadian telecoms products maker Telus (Toronto: T). (company announcement) Investment in the center isn’t huge, at just $1.4 million, but it does look quite strategic, bringing Huawei together with a prominent Canadian university and a fairly large Canadian firm in the hot area of cloud computing. I’m sure Huawei, now the world’s second biggest seller of mobile telecoms equipment, thought long and hard about this move, and wouldn’t be surprised if expensive consultants played a major part in crafting the final announcement. Of course, a single initiative like this won’t suddenly win over conservative US politicians, but clearly this kind of move will soften Huawei’s image in the eyes of some and could thus make it less of an easy target for US China bashers. I’ve previously predicted that Huawei and/or crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) will score their first major North American deal in the 12 months, and with moves like this I still see such a deal occurring.

Bottom line: Huawei’s opening of a Canadian R&D center with a local university is its latest bid to forge a friendlier global image, and should help it win its first big North American deal in the next 12 months.

我们应当赞扬华为以长期策略打入艰难但诱人的美国市场的努力。华为此前在美国竞购前对手及合作夥伴3Com和小型公司3Leaf都以失败告终，现在似乎正采取更温和友好的方式，试图让警觉的美国政客相信，它并不仅仅是属於中国政府的一家企业。华为近期宣布，它将与卡尔顿学院和加拿大电信产品制造商研科（Telus）<T.TO>联手，在加拿大首都成立云计算研发中心。虽然对该中心的投资仅有140万美元，但这看来颇像一个战略之举，因它促使华为与加拿大一个知名学府与加拿大一家大公司在云计算这一热门领域展开合作。我相信，世界第二大移动通信设备制造商华为对此举进行了长期而艰巨的准备，而如果它聘用大牌咨询顾问参与了决策过程，我不会惊讶。当然，单单这样一个举措不会说服美国保守派政客，但此类举措显然会改善一些人心目中华为的形象，或能在一定程度上避免华为沦为美国反华派的攻击目标。我先前就预计，华为和/或中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>一年内将在北美完成首项重大交易，最新进展似乎证明了我的预测。

一句话：华为与加拿大当地学府联手成立研发中心，是打造其全球友好形象的最新举措，应有助於华为未来一年内在北美完成首个大型交易。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

◙ Huawei Prowess on Display in Italy 华为意大利发威

◙ Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

There are two reports out today that indicate Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) ongoing dispute with Beijing over its China mapping service may be close to resolution. In the more significant of the two, Chinese media are saying that Google is in talks with a Chinese partner about setting up a joint venture that would officially own and operate its China mapping service, though no deal has been struck yet. (Chinese article) Those who have followed this issue know that last week related reports emerged saying China had ‘”clarified” that foreign companies wishing to provide mapping services in China needed to do so through a joint venture with a local partner, but that the foreign partner could retain control of the venture. (previous post) Those reports seemed to indicate that Google and Beijing, which had been at loggerheads over the issue, were on the road to settling their disagreement. In the second development that indicates a resolution may be near, research firm Analysys, which tracks online services in China, is saying Google led the China online mapping market in the first quarter with 46 percent share — triple that of its closest rival, AutoNavi (Nasdaq: AMAP) with 15 percent. (English article) This shows Google has clearly spent considerable time and resources to build up this business, and hasn’t abandoned it following its high profile withdrawal from the China search market last year due to disagreements with Beijing over censorship. If things keep moving in this direction, which seems likely, I’d look for a positive announcement from Google within the next month that it has reached agreement with Beijing that will keep it in the China mapping market. On a broader basis, such a development will also be welcomed by foreign Web firms that also occasionally find themselves at odds with heavy-handed Chinese regulators.

Bottom line: Look for a resolution between Google and Beijing in the next month that will allow Google to retain its leading position in China’s online mapping market.

今天有两篇报导称，谷歌<GOOG.O>与中国政府在谷歌在华地图服务方面的争端可能接近解决了。其中一条较重要的报导说，谷歌在与一家中国合作方讨论成立合资公司事宜，以让这家合资公司接手管理谷歌的中国地图服务，但相关协议尚未敲定。如果你一直关注此事，你会记得，上周有媒体报导称，中国政府已经表示，打算在中国提供地图服务的外资企业需要与中国企业成立合资公司，但外资合作方可以保持对合资公司的控制权。这些报导似乎说明，谷歌和中国政府之间的争端即将化解。另外，调研公司Analysys表示，在中国网络地图服务市场，谷歌今年一季度的市场份额达46%，其最大的竞争对手 AutoNavi<AMAP.O>只有15%。这说明，谷歌肯定花了不少时间和资源来推进该项业务，并未在去年高调撤出中国内地市场後放弃这项业务。如果事态继续朝着这个方向发展，我觉得谷歌下月可能会宣布，它与中国政府达成协议，将继续在中国市场提供地图服务。从更广泛的意义上来说，这也会受到那些与中国监管者出现磨擦的外国网络公司的欢迎。

一句话：期待下个月谷歌和中国政府达成协议，可以继续在中国提供地图服务。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google, China Seeking Map Compromise 谷歌与中国寻求妥协

◙ Google Falling Off The China Map 谷歌地图：谈判也没用

◙ Google Bracing for Another Clash with Beijing 谷歌：英雄气短

In what should really come as a surprise to no one, newly released data is showing that new lending by Chinese banks tumbled 14 percent percent in May, even as economists were expecting a slight rise, as part of Beijing’s efforts to slow its racing economy and cool the overheated real estate sector. (English article) Regular readers of this blog will note that I previously said the slowdown could be stronger than many were expecting, after E-House (NYSE: EJ), a leading online real estate services firm, earlier this month reported decidedly downbeat Q1 earnings and forecast more gloom in the coming quarters. (previous post) People who follow China know that Beijing has raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements a number of times over the last six months in a bid to slow down lending. But the untold story here is the less apparent behind-the-scenes effect of Beijing’s market-cooling drive, which has seen banks — which take their orders from the central government — slow down many of their lending processes. Anecdotes on the ground abound about people with good credit unable to get loans for new homes or cars due to delaying by banks — a common Chinese government tactic when there’s no good reason for an outright refusal. The upside of all this is that such delays — which have no basis in real economics — can easily be reversed if Beijing starts to worry about too sharp a slowdown. But in the meantime, look for real estate and car sales to continue their rapid slowdown, with volumes and prices likely to decline in the healthy double-digits at least for the next few months. At the same time, look for stagnation or even declines in bank profits as well as their interest income slows.

Bottom line: Beijing is in no hurry to end a sharp drop in bank lending, meaning prices and sales volumes for big-ticket items like cars and homes will continue falling for the next few months.

在中国政府着力给经济和房地产市场降温之际，最新数据表明，5月份银行新贷款减少14%，这一数字也许并没有出乎任何人的预料，虽然曾有经济学家预计贷款会有小幅增加。经常阅读我的博客的读者会记得，我曾经说过，房地产业此番降温力度将超过很多人的预料。此前一家网络房地产服务商易居中国<EJ.N>本月稍早公布惨淡的一季度财报，并预测未来几个季度更不乐观。熟悉中国情况的读者会知道，中国政府在过去的半年里几次加息和提高银行存款准备金率，以收紧信贷。但这造成的一个後果是，连许多信用记录良好的人也没法及时拿到买房子或车子所需的贷款——包括银行暂时推迟放款。无论如何，房地产和汽车销售都将继续快速下滑，而随着利息收入减少，银行业利润也会停滞不前甚至下降。

一句话：中国政府并不急於结束目前的信贷大降局面，这意味着未来几个月，汽车和房屋的价格和销量都将继续下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ E-House Foundations Looking Outright Shaky 易居中国根基明显摇晃

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

The pedigree for video-sharing site Xunlei, which last week filed for an IPO worth up to $200 million (previous post), just keeps getting richer and richer, in what seems suspiciously like a carefully coordinated campaign of strategic leaks to generate buzz around its upcoming listing. We already knew that this company counts Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) among its backers, which should be enough for people to believe this is a promising player. Now Chinese media are reporting that a fund owned by none other than Rupert Murdoch’s family was also a recent investor, putting in an undisclosed amount that valued Xunlei at $1 billion. (Chinese article) I have lots of respect for Murdoch, whose previous investments have included successful companies like NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and Phoenix Satellite Television (HKEx: 2008). There’s no reason to think this investment will be any different, especially seeing as Xunlei was already earning money in 2009, posting a profit that year of $5.5 million — a sharp contrast to other video sharing sites like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou, which are both still losing money. This selective leaking of information designed to create buzz is clearly in response to the recent cooling in market sentiment towards Chinese Web companies, that’s seen the likes of children’s site Taomee (Nasdaq: TAOM) and Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE) sink in their recent debuts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of these strategic positive leaks coming out in the next week, as the spinmasters behind Xunlei try their best for a positive debut despite the negative market sentiment.

Bottom line: Xunlei backers are hard at work hyping up the company’s IPO, banking on its strong pedigree and balance sheet to buck recently weakening sentiment towards new China IPOs.

上周递交IPO申请、拟筹2亿美元的视频分享网站迅雷的支持者名单正变得越来越强大，看起来是公司有意泄漏相关信息为其上市造势。我们知道，迅雷已经把谷歌<GOOG.O>和百度<BIDU.O>拉进阵营，这应该足以让大家相信，迅雷是一个有希望的企业。如今又有中国媒体报导称，默多克家族拥有的一个基金近期也成为迅雷的一个投资方，其投资对迅雷的估值达到10亿美元。我很尊敬默多克，他以前成功的投资案例包括网易<NTES.O> 和凤凰卫视<2008.HK> 。没有理由怀疑默多克家族的这次新投资，尤其是鉴於迅雷在2009年已经录得550万美元的盈利。相比之下，中国其他视频分享网站如优酷<YOKU.N>和土豆都仍在亏损。在看到淘米网<TAOM.N>和世纪佳缘<DATE.O>上市後的糟糕表现後，迅雷进行上述造势显然是想扭转市场对中国网络公司热情减退的势头。我估计未来一周迅雷还会“泄露”更多类似正面信息，为上市营造良好氛围。

一句话：迅雷的支持者正极力为公司造势，力争扭转市场近来对中国网络公司IPO热情下降的势头。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

China’s current dominance of rare earth production and solar panels are two reflections of Beijing’s determination to become a global leader in these sectors, which it has done through a series of generous subsidies and other government support. Next on its agenda, and an area that foreign companies would do well to watch, is the strategic and decidedly low-tech area of iron ore. Anyone who follows the steel sector knows that iron ore production is now dominated by foreign names like BHP (London: BHT), Vale (NYSE: VALE) and Rio Tinto (Sydney: RIO), which causes anguish with Beijing each year as its steelmakers negotiate new supply contracts that inevitably see the cost of iron ore climb. To end this cycle, Beijing has made up its mind to sharply boost iron ore production at home and become one of the world’s largest suppliers to feed its own steel-hungry construction and infrastructure sectors. Local media have reported that China intends to break the lock of foreign ore producers on the market by 2015, in part by boosting its domestic production to 1.5 billion tonnes per year — a nearly 50 percent increase from current output. At the same time, Beijing is pushing its domestic ore producers to more than double their overseas mining rights to 200 million tons by  2015. If it works, the big push will drop China’s dependence on foreign-supplied ore to 42 percent of its needs by 2015, from 63 percent last year, experts say. So, will it work? My answer is an unqualified “yes”, which will no doubt undermine the big global giants. In this case, China has plenty of domestic resources it can use to reach this goal, and it’s shown in the past that things like self-reliance in key areas like steel outweigh any economic issues like the high cost of achieving such self-reliance. Furthermore, it shouldn’t face any resistance from either foreign or its own provincial governments, as the former can hardly complain about this kind of domestic plan while the latter group will surely welcome such new investment in their provinces.

Bottom line: China’s plan to reduce its dependence on imported iron ore is almost 100 percent likely to succeed, undermining big international players like Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP.

Note: “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players.

中国目前在稀土生产与太阳能电池板领域的主导地位反应了北京方面的一大决心：成为相关领域的全球领头羊。中国业已提供了一系列慷慨补贴及其他政府扶持政策。它的下一个目标、也是外企特别关注的领域，那就是：战略意义重大、但科技含量不高的铁矿石。任何对钢铁行业有所了解的人都知道，现在的铁矿石生产由必和必拓<BHP.AX>、淡水河谷<VALE.N><VALE5.SA>与力拓<RIO.AX><RIO.L>等海外企业主导。每年中国钢铁企业谈判新的供应合同时，海外主导地位都让北京痛苦不已，铁矿石成本逐年攀升。为结束这种状况，北京下定决心大幅增加国内铁矿石生产，成全球头号供应国，以满足国内建筑与基础设施行业的迫切需求。据当地媒体报导，中国拟到2015年打破海外矿企的垄断地位，措施之一就是实现国产矿年产达15亿吨–比目前产量增加近50%。同时，北京方面还在推动国内矿商2015年前实现海外铁矿石的权益矿达2亿吨。专家分析称如果顺利达标，到2015年中国对外矿依存程度将从去年的63%降至42%。那麽，它到底行得通吗？我的答案是“YES”，这显然能够削弱国际矿业巨擘影响力。中国拥有丰富的国内资源来达到这一目标，而且过往案例证明对於钢铁等关键行业，自足问题胜过任何经济问题，比如说实现自足所需的成本等等。而且，海外与国内地方政府应该都不会带来任何阻力，因海外政府基本无法抱怨此类国内计划，而地方政府必然欢迎当地获此类新投资。

一句话：中国计划降低对外矿的依存程度，成功机率几乎100%，这将削弱力拓、淡水河谷与必和必拓等国际大企业的影响力。

备注：“中国决心已定”是我推出的迷你专栏栏目，主要探讨中国宏观产业政策动向、成功机率及对业界企业的潜在影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

◙ Nanshan’s US Aluminum Investment Set to Ring Hollow 南山铝业的美国投资计划注定会失败

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心：有线电视行业整合

Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) has scored an important victory in its plans to expand in South China with approval for a new $2 billion-plus joint venture factory, a development that also has broader implications for China’s drive to nurture a new group of homegrown brands for eventual export. In this latest development, VW has received the green light to build a new joint venture plant with local partner FAW in the South China city of Foshan after a one-year delay, the China Daily reports. The state planner finally gave the green light after determining that a new electric vehicle, to be manufactured under the Kaili brand name at the plant, qualifies as a new brand — a prerequisite for approval of such new joint venture factories. This approval marks an important step forward for VW, which is already well represented in most of China through its ventures with FAW and Shanghai’s SAIC (Shanghai: 600104), but counts affluent South China as one of its weak spots, with Japanese automakers and local players like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and Guangzhou Auto (HKEx: 2238) now dominating the market. From the broader perspective, approval of this venture also reflects Beijing’s desire to push foreign automakers to develop new “made in China” brands with their local partners. GM (NYSE: GM) and Nissan have both rolled out such brands over the last year, and very early signs are that their sales are going well, drawing on the quality assurance of a foreign partner while bringing the low costs of the “made in China” label. If this plan moves forward, and early signs are certainly good, this new crop of homegrown brands with foreign backing could serve as an eventual springboard into lucrative Western markets where consumers value both quality and low prices.

Bottom line: Approval of VW’s new South China plant marks an important advance for VW, and reflects Beijing’s desire to develop a new crop of homemade brands for eventual export.

德国大众汽车<VOWG.DE>进军中国南方市场的努力取得重要胜利，其计划在南方建一个20亿美元合资工厂的项目获中国政府批准，这对於努力想将本土品牌推向国际市场的中国来说，此举也有重大意义。据《中国日报》报导，在拖延了一年後，一汽大众佛山工厂终於获批。一汽大众此款电动车品牌定名为“开利”，满足了自主品牌等相关要求，因此获国家发改委批复。这对於大众来说是其前进的重要一步，大众通过与一汽和上海汽车<600104.SS>成立合资公司，在中国大部分市场已有良好发展，但其在富庶的中国南部市场却乏善可陈，日系汽车厂商、比亚迪<1211.HK>和广汽集团<2238.HK>等当地汽车厂商目前主导南方市场。从更广泛义的意义来说，批准合资工厂，说明中国政府希望能利用外资汽车生产商的力量，与本土合作夥伴一起开发“中国制造”品牌。去年，通用汽车<GM.N>和日产都推出了类似品牌，初步数据显示，它们的销量都不错，因为一方面有外国制造商的质量保证，另一方面有本土合作方，可以降低成本。如果这个计划得以推行，这批得到外资支持的本土品牌将成为最终走向西方市场的跳板，因西方消费者既看中品质，又希望获得低价。

一句话：大众在中国南方建厂的计划获批对其意义重大，也说明中国希望能打造可以走向国际市场的本土品牌。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

◙ GM’s China Growth Story Stalls Out 通用汽车在华增长势头受挫

◙ China Takes Car Incentives to the Farm to Halt Skid

I read with amusement that wind power producer Huaneng Renewables (HKEx: 958) stumbled out of the gate in its Hong Kong debut on Friday with a 3 percent decline from an already cheap IPO price, as investors fretted over recent news that China will halt subsidies to makers of wind power equipment and components. (English article) Honestly speaking, I couldn’t understand what all the worry was about as Huaneng is a power generating company, not an equipment maker that may see some slight impact from China’s subsidy-ending move. Clearly big names like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Temasek didn’t worry about the company’s prospects, as both came in as cornerstone investors to this IPO. So let’s look at the big picture here to see why this investment is a sure-fire winner: China has set a massively aggressive goal to have 110 gigawatts of wind power capacity installed by 2015, nearly triple the current figure. Huaneng, as the nation’s largest power producer, will clearly be called upon to help implement this aggressive target. To make that proposition attractive to Huaneng shareholders, which include the Chinese government, Beijing has already introduced attractive rates for wind power tariffs that offer attractive returns for investors. If it really wants to encourage investment in the area to meet its target, it could even increase those rates, offering a potential upside for wind power producers. At the end of the day, anyone betting against this company should have a better reason than concern about loss of subsidies, as Huaneng Renewables’ profits should be strong and steady over the next 5 years.

Bottom line: Huaneng Renewables could be a good buy following its weak Hong Kong debut, as it looks set to cash in on China’s aggressive wind power goals.

我饶有兴趣地发现，中国风力发电企业–华能新能源股份有限公司<0958.HK>周五在香港的首日挂牌交易中便出师不利，收市价比本已非常便宜的发行价下跌了3%，因最近市场传言称中国将停止对风电设备和零件生产商的补贴，投资者对此颇为担心。实话说，我无法理解为何会出现这种担心，因为华能是一家发电企业，并不是可能因中止补贴政策而受到一定冲击的设备生产商。很明显，通用电气<GE.N>和淡马锡等知名企业并不担心华能的前景，因两者均为华能此次IPO的基础投资者。那麽让我们来看看大背景，看看这笔投资为什麽一定会成功：中国制定了在2015年前实现风电装机容量1.1亿千瓦的宏伟目标，是现有水平的近三倍。作为中国最大的发电企业，华能势必需要为实现这一目标而添砖加瓦。为获得华能股东的支持，中国政府推出了具有吸引力的风电并网电价，以使投资者能获得较好回报率。如果中国政府真得希望鼓励风电领域投资，以实现上述目标，那麽甚至还可能提高风电并网电价，以使风电企业获得潜在优势。最终，不看好这家企业的人应该有更好的理由，而不是担心补贴被取消，因华能在未来五年的利润应会强劲而稳定。

一句话：华能新能源香港上市首日表现不佳，不影响它的潜力股地位，因其料会受益於中国宏伟的风电发展目标。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes 明阳挫折凸显行业之殇

◙ Longyuan Looks to Breeze Overseas 龙源电力寻找海外风能市场机遇

◙ Beijing Warms Up Solar Sector 中国政府向太阳能产业伸出援手

After pricing its IPO at the bottom end of an indicated range, kids Website operator Taomee (Nasdaq: TAOM) has shown it’s truly not ready for prime with an equally unimpressive debut that saw its stock sink 8.6 percent on its first trading day. (English article) The company cautioned in its prospectus that internal controls were one of its potential weaknesses, which surely didn’t help market concerns about Chinese company accounting in light of the ongoing scandal surrounding New York-listed Longtop Financial (NYSE: LFT). I should also be fair in saying that broader sentiment towards Chinese Internet companies has cooled considerably in the last couple of weeks, partly due to accounting concerns but also partly because a correction was sorely needed after a huge run-up this year. After surging 30 percent on its debut last month, shares of social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) are now actually trading 35 percent below their IPO price. Money-losing video-sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) has lost more than half its value since mid-April, though it’s still more than double its IPO price from late last year. Even industry stalwarts Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) are feeling the pinch, down 23 percent and 13 percent, respectively, over the last week. The clearly cooling sentiment doesn’t mean that all new Chinese IPOs will be flops, but rather that investors will only buy quality stocks with strong top- and bottom-lin growth potential, and won’t just fork over big bucks for any Internet play with the “made in China” label.

Bottom line: Taomee’s IPO flop signals a more cautionary investor approach to China Internet IPOs, and could put a big damper on new offerings for the next 3-6 months.

运营儿童网站的中国淘米网<TAOM.N>近日进行首次公开募股(IPO)，发行价定在了发行区间的下限，而其上市首日表现也不尽人意，当日重挫8.6%，充分表明该公司未能搭上互联网IPO黄金时代的顺风车。淘米在招股说明书中警告称，内部控制是该公司的潜在弱点之一。由於在美国上市的中国企业–东南融通<LFT.N>的财务丑闻调查还在进行之中，淘米的这种说法当然无助於缓解市场对中资公司财务状况的担忧。公平地说，过去一两周，投资者对中国互联网企业的广泛兴趣已大幅冷却，部分是由於担忧其财务状况，部分也因为在经历了今年的猛涨後，市场亟需进行修正。社交网站人人网<RENN.N>上月上市首日股价飙升30%，但目前股价比其IPO价格低35%。自四月中旬以来，视频分享网站优酷<YOKU.N>股价也缩水一多半，不过其股价依然高於其IPO价格的一倍多。就算是互联网行业的中流砥柱新浪<SINA.O>和百度<BIDU.O>也倍感压力，上周其股价分别下挫23%和13%。市场情绪冷却并不意味着所有中国企业的IPO都会遭遇失败，但说明投资者只会买入那些有着巨大增长潜力的绩优股，而不会只青睐那些所有打着“中国制造”标签的互联网企业。

一句话：淘米IPO的失利说明，投资者对中国互联网企业的IPO愈发谨慎，这
可能会抑制未来3-6个月的新股发行。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

◙ Dud Looms With Shanda Literature Offering 盛大文学上市令人不解

◙ China Groupon Wannabes in Fund-Raising Frenzy 中国团购网站掀起融资狂潮

Just a couple of weeks after launching a campaign to reignite growth with a new foray into smartphones, Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) is taking another step on that front with its purchase of a designer specializing in chips for high-speed cellphones. Spreadtrum says it will buy 48 percent of Mobile Peak Holdings, which makes chips for the cutting-edge HSPA standard, for total consideration of $32.6 million, and intends to buy out the entire company by the end of the year. (company announcement) The announcement contains no other financials, though Spreadtrum says that Mobile Peak’s business is strong enough that Spreadtrum won’t see any impact on its EPS outlook this year, which tells me that Mobile Peak should be an instant contributor to profits and revenue. This kind of mid-sized M&A is exactly the kind of deal I like to see, targeting a company that’s small enough to quickly integrate in an area that Spreadtrum has clearly identified for future growth. Investors seem to be less convinced, with Spreadtrum stock down more than 20 percent over the last two weeks amid a broader cooling sentiment toward China stocks. Given Spreadtrum CEO Leo Li’s earlier record at reviving this company’s fortunes more than a year ago, I’d give this latest initiative a good chance of success and look for returns on this smartphone push as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: Spreadtrum’s acquisition of a mid-sized HSPA chip designer is a shrewd part of its new foray into smartphones that could start to pay returns by the end of this year.

仅在一两周前，展讯通信（Spreadtrum）<SPRD.O>为寻找新的增长点，宣布进军智能手机市场，现在该公司已采取行动，即收购专为高速手机设计芯片的公司。展讯称，公司将收购摩波彼克(Mobile Peak Holdings)公司48%的股权，交易总额为3,260万美元，并打算在年底前实现完全控股，摩波彼克专业致力於高度集成UMTS/HSPA+调制解调器芯片组的设计工作。展讯的声明并未透露更多财务内容，但表示摩波彼克业务非常强劲，不会对展讯今年每股收益产生任何影响。这等於告诉我，摩波彼克将立即为展讯创造利润及营收。这种中等规模的并购才是我最希望看到的，收购一个小型公司，迅速整合到公司已确定未来增长的领域。投资者似乎信心不足，在投资者对中国股票热情降温的大环境下，展讯股价在过去两周跌幅逾20%。鉴於展讯执行长李力游一年前曾给公司带来的不俗表现，我认为展讯并购举措成功机率很高，并预计公司最快将在今年年底前看到收益。

一句话：展讯收购中等规模的HSPA芯片设计商，是其进军智能手机市场的明智之举，今年年底前有望看到回报。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Spreadtrum Tries Getting Smart to Reignite Growth 展讯进军智能手机市场是明智之举

◙ Asustek Chases Convergence in New Padfone 华硕推出Padfone 整合智能手机和平板电脑

◙ China Mobile Finally Pushing on 3G 中国移动终於要大力推动3G业务

China is plugging ahead with its determination to consolidate the country’s fragmented cable TV industry, aiming to build a national digital entertainment leader despite strong resistance from entrenched provincial interests. In the latest development on this front, local media are reporting that Hunan TV & Broadcast (Shenzhen: 000917) has agreed to buy 49 percent of Baoding Pascali Broadcasting, a major operator in nearby Hebei province. (English article) This deal looks significant as it’s one of the first publicly announced cross-provincial purchases I’ve seen in this latest consolidation drive, which began earlier this year. (previous post) By comparison, consolidation within a province looks relatively easy as local party bosses and government officials exercise considerable authority throughout their regions. The same can’t be said for the national government, whose control is much weaker at the provincial level, thereby posing what could become a major obstacle for national cable consolidation. I previously pegged the chances for success of this latest campaign, following a failed effort five years ago, at around 30-40 percent, and later upped that to 50 percent when there appeared to be some signs of movement. (previous post) I’ll revise that to 55 percent in light of this latest development. But big obstacles still remain despite this positive case, and one should note the Hubei company didn’t get an outright majority stake in the deal. With China coming under growing international pressure to make its media market more open, perhaps Beijing is realizing the only way it can ever hope to build any world class competitors in this space is through this kind of consolidation.

Bottom line: The purchase of a Hebei cable operator by a Hunan rival marks a significant cross-province tie-up in China’s latest cable TV consolidation drive, but many obstacles still remain.

虽然受到来自地方的阻力，但中国政府仍决心大力整合有线电视行业，旨在创造一个全国性的数字娱乐媒体巨头。据当地媒体报导，最近的一个举动是，湖南电广传媒<000917.SZ>已同意收购保定百世开利49%的股权。这笔交易意义重大，因为这是我在这场年初开始的整合大潮中看到的首个公开宣布的跨省并购案之一。相比之下，省内的并购相对要容易一些，因为地方党政机关部门对其所管辖的区域能施加相当大的权力。但中央政府对地方的控制力就会相对弱一些，这将对跨区域整合造成相当大的障碍。我以前曾经觉得这种交易的可能性也就有三四成，後来发现有些进展迹象後，我将成功机率提高到50%，鉴於最新的这个进展，我再次将成功机率上修为55%。虽然这笔交易成功了，但一些大的障碍仍然存在，而且应该注意到的是，该公司并没有得到多数股权。如今中国在开放媒体市场方面受到越来越多来自国际社会的压力，中国政府也意识到，只有通过这种整合方式，才能在媒体领域打造世界级的公司。

一句话：湖南电广传媒购买河北这家有线电视运营商的举动，标志中国有线电视跨区域整合终有斩获，但障碍依然存在。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Cable Consolidation: Second Time the Charm? 中国有线电视行业整合势头正劲

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心：有线电视行业整合

Ever since Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) officially cut ties to its popular Weibo microblogging service earlier this year, it seems like Weibo has been making strategic and innovative moves on nearly a weekly basis as it looks to monetize its business for what Sina hopes will eventually become a blockbuster IPO. In one of the latest moves, Chinese media are reporting that Weibo has entered into an agreement with China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) that will see China’s third-largest mobile carrier make Weibo easier for its subscribers to access from their cellphones. (English article) This is exactly the kind of agreement that Weibo should be pursuing, as mobile Internet is clearly the direction that microblogging is moving. I’d be even happier if Weibo signed a similar deal with China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHA), the country’s largest mobile carrier with 70 percent of the market, or even the second biggest carrier, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU). But let’s give Weibo some time. The second recent development will see Weibo launch an English-language service, presumably for foreigners who want to access to this wildly popular service but can’t read Chinese. The only problem is, there’s already a much better English language microblogging service out there: Twitter. And as anyone in China will tell you, the primary reason that Weibo has flourished in the first place is because Beijing officially blocks Twitter in China. Sure, maybe there are one or two foreigners living in China who would rather use an English language Weibo than finding other ways around the Chinese firewall to use the real Twitter. But those people are few and far between, and Weibo would be better served to focus on its home market and leave the English language world to Twitter.

Bottom line: Weibo’s tie-up with China Telecom is the kind of move it needs to make in its march to profitability, while its introduction of an English service is a complete waste of time.

自从新浪<SINA.O>今年稍早将其微博业务剥离出去後，新浪微博似乎每周都推出战略创新之举，新浪希望，微博业务最终能进行首次公开发行（IPO）。中国媒体近期报导称，新浪微博与中国电信<CHA.N>达成协议，中国电信用户通过手机访问微博将更方便。这的确是新浪微博应该开展的合作，手机上网显然是微博的发展方向。不过，若新浪微博与中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>或中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>签约，我会更高兴。但让我们给新浪微博一点时间。新浪近期第二项举措是，将推出英文版微博，针对的用户群可能是，想使用新浪微博但不懂中文的外国人。唯一的问题是，现在已经有更好的英语微博服务了，那就是Twitter。在中国，人们会告诉你，新浪微博能这麽受欢迎的主要原因是，人们在中国无法登陆Twitter。当然，可能会有一两个住在中国的外国人确实想用英文版新浪微博，而不是翻墙使用Twitter。但这样的人终归是少数，新浪微博应重点关注国内市场，把英文市场留给Twitter。

一句话：新浪微博与中国电信合作是实现盈利的举措之一，而推出英文版微博则纯属浪费时间.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

◙ New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

◙ Sina Gearing Up for Weibo Spin-Off 新浪欲剥离微博