Journalist China

Video sharing site Xunlei may be delaying its upcoming IPO due to the China sell-off on Wall Street  (previous post), but the bloodbath doesn’t seem to be deterring rival site Tudou. Chinese media are reporting that Tudou, whose name means potato in Chinese, has revived stalled plans for a New York IPO, after suspending those plans last fall while founder Gary Wang worked through a messy divorce. (English article; Chinese article)  The reports say Tudou, which has yet to turn a profit, has filed its initial documents with the US securities regulator, and that it aims to list by the end of this month. Many will recall that Tudou was in a race with another rival, Youku (NYSE: YOKU), last fall to become China’s first publicly listed video sharing site — a race that Tudou ultimately lost when Wang’s divorce proceedings got in the way. Later reports emerged that Wang might be looking to sell Tudou, though the company insisted all along it was still aiming for an IPO. (previous post) This current plan doesn’t really surprise me, though I  question how smart it is. Wang, like many other Chinese entrepreneurs, clearly wants to stay at the head of his company, hence his preference for an IPO versus a sale of Tudou to a rival. Furthermore, he’s probably so relieved that his divorce is finally resolved that he’s blind to the fact that his company — already less attractive due to its money-losing status — will IPO into a market where sentiment toward new China listings has grown ice cold over the last 2 months. That shift has already prompted rival Xunlei, which has a much stronger financial background, to delay its IPO. If it moves forward with its plan to list in the next couple of weeks, which seems likely, look for Tudou shares to price weakly, and to stumble out of the gate with a weak to outright disastrous trading debut.

Bottom line: Tudou’s rush to IPO into one of the weakest markets in more than a year will end with a weak pricing and potentially disastrous trading debut.

近来中国概念股在华尔街遭遇滑铁卢，中国视频分享网站迅雷可能会推迟IPO进程，但竞争对手土豆网似乎不为所动。据中国媒体报导，土豆网创始人王微与前妻已就离婚财产纠纷达成和解，网站之前暂停的IPO计划重回正轨。报导称土豆网已向美国证券交易委员会提交监管文件，计划最迟本月底前上市。很多人应该都记得土豆去年秋天与另外一家竞争对手优酷网<YOKU.N>展开上市赛跑，当时土豆因王微离婚纠纷而在这一竞赛中最终败北，优酷最终成功上市，成为中国首家上市的视频分享网站。稍後曾有报导称王微有意出售土豆，不过公司一直坚称目标仍为IPO。我虽怀疑土豆当前计划是否明智，但对此举本身我并不感意外。王微像很多中国企业家一样，明显希望继续掌舵，所以他会倾向於IPO，而不是把土豆出售给竞争对手。而且，离婚纠纷终於尘埃落定，王微大大松了一口气，以至于根本没有注意过去两个月来华尔街对中国概念股的态度跌至冰冷。华尔街的态度转变已经让迅雷推迟了IPO计划。如果未来几周土豆继续推进IPO，土豆股价定价可能非常弱，上市首日就有可能惨淡破发。

一句话：在目前华尔街冷眼对待中国概念股的情况下，土豆匆忙赴美IPO，最终定价可能很低，而且上市首秀可能灾难收场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku Ambushes Market with Massive Follow-on, Investors Bite 优酷利用投资者心理大捞一笔

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), while busy trying to follow Beijing’s latest economic-cooling policy directives at home, is behaving decidedly more commercial in its overseas M&A actions with its latest plan to purchase 80 percent of Standard Bank’s Argentine unit. (English article) Local media in Argentina are reporting that ICBC will pay $700-$800 million for the stake, while South Africa’s Standard Bank will retain the remaining 20 percent stake. Most readers will recall that ICBC holds a 20 percent stake in Standard Bank, its main partner in Africa. Without knowing too much about Standard Bank’s Argentine businesl, I have to say that at least on the surface this deal looks like exactly the kind of global M&A that ICBC should be pursuing. I really like ICBC’s tie-up with Standard Bank, one of Africa’s top lenders, which has helped to raise ICBC’s profile and portfolio in Africa by drawing on Standard Bank’s strong ties to the continent. Argentina, and more broadly Latin America, is another major emerging market where ICBC could also do well if it has the right local partners. Standard Bank’s Argentine unit looks like it could fit that description, qualifying as a solid mid-sized player with a market cap of around $1 billion. These are exactly the kinds of overseas markets that ICBC should be focusing on, seeking to draw on its broader experience as an emerging market lender and also homing in on locations where Chinese firms are actively making investments. I would look for more deals of this size in emerging markets from ICBC in the year ahead, both with Standard Bank and also on its own.

Bottom line: ICBC’s move into Argentina through its purchase of a local bank is a smart acquisition, drawing on its emerging market expertise and its ties with Standard Bank.

中国工商银行<601398.SS> <1398.HK>的海外并购更具市场化的味道。据阿根廷媒体报导，日前工商银行计划收购南非标准银行阿根廷分公司的80%股权，交易金额可能为7-8亿美元，标准银行将保留其余20%股权。很多读者应该记得工商银行拥有南非标准银行20%股权。虽然我对标准银行的阿根廷业务不甚了解，但至少表面来看，这宗交易正是工商银行应该追逐的全球并购方式。我个人非常喜欢工商银行与标准银行的联姻，帮助提高了工商银行在非洲的知名度和市场份额。阿根廷，或者更广意义上的拉丁美洲，是另外一个重要的新兴市场，如在当地有合适的合作夥伴，工商银行也可能取得成功。标准银行阿根廷分部看似正合条件，10亿美元左右的市值算得上是中等规模。这正是工行需要重点出击的海外市场。我认为未来一年工商银行还会有更多此类规模的交易，无论是与标准银行合作或者是单独开展。

一句话：工商银行通过收购当地银行打入阿根廷是非常明智的收购交易，积极利用了其在新兴市场的专业经验与与标准银行的关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

◙ Bocom Chases Global I-Bank Business With Big Bucks 交通银行打算花大价钱吸引投行人才

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

Chinese firms are finally starting to take action in a bid to halt the New York sell-off that has seen some of their shares lose half their value or more in the last few weeks. Leading the charge are chip designer Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) and online retailer Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), which have both announced share purchasing programs to try and halt their recent slides. (Spreadtrum announcement; Dangdang announcement) It’s not hard to understand why they made their announcements: Spreadtrum shares were down more than 40 percent since mid-April before its announcement, though they bounced back 7 percent after disclosing the plan to buy up to $100 million worth of company stock. Dangdang, meantime, has tanked by more than half over the same period, as investors dump China stocks in droves amid recent concerns over accounting issues at some Chinese companies, and also following a generally broad-based rally that had seen many such stocks rise considerably over the last year. Another victim of the sell-off appears to be video sharing site Xunlei, which Chinese media are reporting has decided to delay its $200 million upcoming Nasdaq IPO due to the poor market sentiment. (Chinese article; previous post) I would look for more of these kinds of announcements in the weeks ahead, as the companies seek to halt a skid in their share prices that is probably overblown. I personally don’t trade in these stocks because I write about them; but if I were an investor, I would say that now could be a good time to start looking at some of these for good bargains, as the accounting concerns really shouldn’t be an issue for the larger players with market caps of $1 billion or more.

Bottom line: Look for more US-listed China firms to launch share purchasing programs to support their sagging stocks and pick up shares at relative bargain prices.

过於几周，部分赴美上市的中国公司股票贬值至少一半，如今这些公司终於开始采取措施，试图阻止纽约股市抛售其股票。率先采取行动的是芯片设计商展讯通信（Spreadtrum）<SPRD.O>和当当网<DANG.N>，两家公司均宣布回购股票计划，从而结束近期其股票下跌的状况。找出其中的原因并不难：从4月中旬到展讯宣布上述决定前，其股价跌幅逾40%，展讯宣布回购价值高达1亿美元的公司股票後，其股价回升了7%。当当网股价同期跌幅逾一半，原因是投资者近期担忧，部分中国赴美上市公司会计信息存在问题，况且去年许多此类股票大涨，因而投资者纷纷抛售中国公司股票了解获利。另一名受害者是视频分享网站迅雷，中国媒体报导称，因为美国市况不佳，迅雷已决定推迟其价值2亿美元的纳斯达克IPO（首次公开发行）。我预计，未来几周还会有更多中国公司发表类似声明，以阻止其股价继续下跌。因为我的工作是报导上市公司新闻，所以我个人从不进行这些股票交易；但如果我是投资者，我想说，这是低价买进某些股票的好时机，因为对於市值逾10亿美元的较大公司，真的不用担忧其会计问题。

一句话：预计将有更多在美上市的中国企业宣布回购股票计划，以阻止其股价下跌，不妨以相对较低的价位加仓。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

◙ Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

◙ Dud Looms With Shanda Literature Offering 盛大文学上市令人不解

Number portability — the ability to change mobile carriers without changing your phone number — is slogging ahead in China at a snail’s pace, and I’ve no doubt that resistance from the carriers, most notably China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), is to blame. People often resist switching their mobile company, even when other carriers offer more attractive plans, because they don’t want to change their phone number and risk being unreachable by their old contacts. Number portability was designed to solve this problem, allowing someone to switch carriers without losing their old phone number. While most developed countries have had number portability for years, China, after years of talk, finally conducted a 6-month trial program in Tianjin and Hainan that just wrapped up in May. In what should come as no big surprise, only 50,000 people managed to change carriers while keeping their old phone numbers in that time, or just a tenth of people who actually applied to do so. (English article; Chinese article) As a result of this weak result, a spokesman from the telecoms regulator said plans to roll out number portability nationwide, originally set for the end of this year, will be delayed a year. I’ve no doubt that China Mobile, with 70 percent of China’s mobile market, was one of the biggest forces making life difficult for anyone to change numbers. Especially in the 3G era, when many would like to switch to superior service offered by rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China Mobile has everything to lose and little or nothing to gain by making number portability easier. Still, that’s no excuse for delaying, and the regulator should be more forceful in pushing China Mobile to cooperate with this initiative if it wants to usher in an era of more balanced competition for its telecoms sector.

Bottom line: Foot-dragging by China’s 3 mobile carriers is stalling China’s move to mobile number portability, aiding China Mobile as it fends off aggressive advances by its 2 rivals.

中国正在缓慢推进手机携号转网，即不换号实现手机运营商转换。我认为，该进展迟缓无疑应归咎於运营商的抵制，尤其是中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>。人们往往不愿更换手机运营商，即使其它运营商提供了更诱人的计划，原因是他们不想换号，不希望以前的联系人找不到他们。携号转网就能解决这个问题，用户可以不换号转网。大多数发达国家已推广该项服务多年，而中国在讨论了数年後，终於在天津和海南进行了为期六个月的试点项目，试验期刚於今年5月结束。并不令人感到意外的是，试验期只有5万人实现携号转网，仅为申请人数的十分之一。由於试行效果不佳，工信部发言人表示，将推迟一年向全国推广携号转网，而该计划原定於今年年底落实。我毫不怀疑，占中国手机市场七成份额的中国移动是最大的阻力之一。尤其是在3G领域，许多人肯定希望转用中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>的更优质服务，所以中国移动若支持携号转网将得不偿失。但这不是拖延的理由。工信部若希望引导国内电信商公平竞争，就应敦促中国移动配合携号转网计划。

一句话：中国三大移动运营商犹豫不决，阻碍中国实现携号转网计划。这种情况对中国移动有利，因为它不愿看到两大竞争对手从中获益。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙ China Mobile Finally Pushing on 3G 中国移动终於要大力推动3G业务

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Just a day after announcing an unusual plan to build wind power plants in the US (previous post), China is stepping up to bat for its embattled green energy equipment makers once more with an equally ambitious scheme to bankroll construction of solar power plants in Europe. (English article) Under this latest plan, three Chinese banks will pony up as much as $10 billion to help solar equipment and service providers China Technology Development Group (Nasdaq: CTDC) and Goldpoly New Energy (HKEx: 686) build solar plants in Europe. (company announcement) While this plan is being spearheaded by two companies with undoubtedly favorable financing from the Chinese banks, word in the market is that similar plans are in the works by other major Chinese solar equipment makers, which have seen their inventory rapidly grow amid one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns as urgency lessens to build new green energy plants in the West with the fading of the global economic crisis. As I said previously, these green energy plants are still a profitable endeavor in many Western markets due to favorable government-set prices for wind and solar energy designed to spur clean energy construction. But the rate of return doesn’t seem to have attracted much attention from Western investors, hence the need for the Chinese to come in and build and finance these overseas plants themselves. Look for more such announcements in the months ahead, providing a lift for China’s solar cell makers, but also a potential burden as they move into the less-familiar area of building and owning solar power generating stations.

Bottom line: Chinese solar cell makers are gearing up for a solar power station building spree with backing from Beijing, boosting their sales but also taking them into unfamiliar territory.

中国宣布将在美国建风电厂的消息一天之後，再度出手力挺国内绿色能源设备制造商，表示将为其在欧洲建设太阳能电厂提供融资。根据这项最新计划，中国三家银行将提供高达100亿美元的资金，支持太阳能设备及服务提供商中国科技发展集团和金保利新能源公司<0686.HK>在欧洲修建太阳能电站。这两家公司将率先获得国内银行优惠融资支持，但市场传言，中国其它大型太阳能设备制造商也在制定类似计划。该行业正处於史上最严重的低迷期之一，中国太阳能企业的库存已经快速增加，因随着全球经济危机减退，西方国家新建清洁能源电厂的紧迫感也有所消退。正如我之前所说，清洁能源电厂在许多西方国家仍有盈利空间，因为各国政府为推动清洁能源发展，对风能和太阳能设立了优惠价格。但其收益率对西方投资者来说并不太诱人，因此需要中国企业进入欧美市场，修建电厂并自行融资。未来数月，中国政府或将宣布更多类似计划，为国内太阳能电池企业提供机会，但机遇也可能成为负担，因为他们将前往人生地不熟的地方修建太阳能电站。

一句话：中国太阳能电池制造商正在北京支持下，加速对外扩张。虽然销售会受到提振，但厂家们也将进入一个陌生领地。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Tie-Up Pushes Wind Power in US 国电和富国银行的合作推动美国风电的发展

◙ Beijing Warms Up Solar Sector 中国政府向太阳能产业伸出援手

◙ China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

Finally, there’s a bit of interesting news coming from Alibaba Group that doesn’t involve its ongoing dispute with investors Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Softbank over its online payments service. In Alibaba’s latest strategic move, which appears unrelated to the ongoing feud over Alipay, the company is preparing to split Taobao, its main consumer-oriented e-commerce asset, into three units: one focused on B2C, one on C2C and a third focused on e-commerce searches. (English article) This move smells distinctly of preparation for an IPO for the B2C unit, Taobao Mall, and is likely the result of years of pressure from Softbank — an original investor in Taobao as well as the bigger Alibaba Group — for Alibaba to better monetize Taobao so it can get back some of its investment. Taobao started out largely as a C2C site, in direct competition with eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY). But that business has failed to ever generate much money due to Alibaba’s repeated refusal to charge any listing or transaction fees for the site. Taobao Mall grew up later, and is clearly a more attractive business as sellers are mostly commercial retailers who don’t mind paying a fee to sell their products online, which carries much lower overhead than traditional real-world stores. Following this split-up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taobao Mall publish some financials relatively soon to start drumming up support for an IPO in as little as the next 12 months. After all, Softbank has waited nearly a decade to get some return out of its original investments in both Alibaba and Taobao and now it looks like the wait could finally be almost over.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s split-up of its Taobao consumer e-commerce company foreshadows an IPO for the B2C unit, Taobao Mall, within the next 12 months.

除了与雅虎和软银的在线支付服务纠纷外，阿里巴巴集团终於有了些其它有意思的新闻。阿里巴巴的最新战略举措似乎与支付宝重组争端无关，该集团将把淘宝网分拆为三家不同商业模式的公司：C2C网上购物平台淘宝网、B2C购物网站淘宝商城和网上购物搜索引擎一淘。此举明显是为淘宝商城上市做准备，而这有可能是软银多年施压的结果。软银一直敦促阿里巴巴更好地对淘宝进行货币化操作，以收回其部分投资。淘宝起初主要是以C2C网上购物平台模式运营，直接与eBay构成竞争。但由於阿里巴巴一再拒绝对淘宝网收取开店和交易费用，该业务盈利一直较少。淘宝商城後来崛起，明显成为一项更诱人的业务，因为店家多为商业零售商，网上卖货比传统实体店开销低得多，所以他们并不介意支付一些费用。淘宝一分为三後，若淘宝商城不久就发布一些财报，开始为一年内上市造势，我不会感到惊讶。毕竟，为收回对阿里巴巴和淘宝的最初投资，软银已经等待了近10年，现在看来似乎不用再等多久了。

一句话：阿里巴巴将淘宝一分为三，为B2C淘宝商城未来一年内上市埋下伏笔。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

◙ Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

◙ Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽？

Cellphone and TV maker TCL (Shenzhen: 000001) is further solidifying its budding comeback, with the announcement of $300 million in new deals to sell its products in Italy. (English article) What’s most interesting to me in this latest announcement, which doesn’t provide much specifics, is that celllphones seem to be providing more and more of the company’s recent return from the dead. Some may recall that TCL, through its TCL Communication (HKEx: 2618) arm, burst onto the mobile phone scene about a decade ago by selling smart-looking, low cost phones to new China mobile customers. But it later fell onto hard times due to lack of new designs and a disastrous purchase of Alcatel’s handset business. Meantime, sister company TCL Multimedia (HKEx: 1070), TCL’s television unit, also went through some hard times after its similarly difficult purchase of Thomson Electronics’  TV arm in 2005. TCL’s TV and cellphone businesses have both come back in the last two years, though handsets are clearly growing much faster. TCL’s handset sales in the first five months of the year grew 39 percent, versus just 13 percent growth for its LCD television sales. (English article) The company seems to be taking a cue from provincial rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) in finding a niche for developing low-cost smartphones based on the Android operating system. The TV business also got a shot in the arm in April, when Samsung (Seoul: 005930) invested in TCL’s state-of-the-art LCD plant in Shenzhen. (previous post) With that tie-up set to help boost TV sales and momentum in the cellphone business, I’d look for TCL’s strong comeback to continue for at least the next one to two years.

Bottom line: TCL’s new $300 million worth of deals in Italy underscore its recent comeback, which should continue at least for the next 1-2 years.

中国手机和电视制造商TCL集团<000100.SZ>正进一步巩固其卷土重来之势，宣称与意大利客户签下总额达3亿美元的销售合约。在我看来，这则声明最有趣的地方在於，手机业务似乎越来越成为TCL起死回生的法宝。有人或许还能回想起来，TCL大约十年前试水手机领域，向中国刚刚兴起的移动客户提供外形漂亮但价格低廉的手机，但因缺乏新设计并错误地购买了阿尔卡特的手机业务，TCL陷入到困局中。与此同时，TCL旗下电视机生产企业——TCL 多媒体<1070.HK>在2005年收购法国汤姆逊电子的电视部门後也经历了一段困难时期。TCL的电视和手机业务在过去两年中均有所复苏，尽管手机业务的发展速度明显快很多。TCL今年前五个月的手机销售增长了39%，而其液晶电视机的销售只有13%的增长率。TCL在开发基於安卓操作系统的低成本智能手机时似乎从竞争对手中兴通讯<000063.SZ> <0763.HK>那里获得了灵感。TCL的电视业务4月份也获得了动力，因三星电子<005930.KS>向TCL位於深圳的液晶电视机厂投资。这笔投资势必有助於推动其电视机的销量和手机业务的发展。我预计TCL的强力反弹之势至少会在未来一到两年延续。

一句话：TCL在意大利签署的新协议再次印证了其近些日子的反弹之势，且这种趋势至少为延续到未来一到两年。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ TCL on the Comeback Trail With Samsung Tie-Up TCL与三星结盟 重振旗鼓

◙ China TV Makers Lack Right Stuff to Profit fom Sony Woes 索尼遭殃谁受益？

◙ ZTE: Ready for a Breather 中兴通讯：遇到了减速带

After a few months of silence from BYD (HKEx: 1211), the electric vehicle aspirant backed by US billionaire Warren Buffett has announced a new pilot program to test out its electric buses in the German city of Frankfurt. (company announcement) While any new orders for its electric vehicles outside China are certainly good news for BYD, a closer look at this latest deal is hardly anything to get excited about. The pilot program in Germany, already known for its willingness to try just about anything with the word “green” in it, involves a total of three electric buses and two charging stations, which no doubt BYD is supplying free of charge or at very very very reduced costs. The buses won’t even be riding around Frankfurt on regular routes, but will be mostly confined to use as airport shuttles. The highly limited scope of this arrangement shows just how tough a time BYD will face in getting its electric vehicles into Western markets. Instead, the company’s best shot really lies in its home market of Shenzhen, a major Chinese metropolis, where the local government has already shown itself willing to act as a major backer for BYD’s electric dreams by building out major charging and other infrastructure to showcase and promote this technology, if it’s even worth showcasing at all. My guess is that this Frankfurt program won’t go too far, due to charging infrastructure limitations and high maintenance costs. But if BYD provides enough incentives, perhaps this could be the beginning of a deeper relationship down the road, though don’t look for profits from this or any similar overseas tie-ups anytime soon.

Bottom line: BYD’s new EV bus pilot program in Germany is largely a PR ploy, unlikely to yield any major business for BYD anytime soon.

在经历了数月的沉默後，比亚迪<1211.HK>宣布了一项新的电动车试点项目，准备在德国法兰克福使用其生产的电动巴士。尽管任何来自中国本土以外的电动车新订单对比亚迪都肯定是好事，但若进一步观察这项最新协议，你会发现其实没什麽可高兴的。在德国的这个试点项目涉及三辆电动公车和两座充电车站，无疑，比亚迪将提供免费充电服务或以象征性收点儿钱，而众所周知德国很愿意测试任何与“绿色”有关的新技术。这几辆电动车基本不会沿常规路线环绕法兰克福，主要用作机场穿梭巴士。严格限定其使用范围也显示出，比亚迪在将其电动车打入西方市场的过程中将面临多大的困难。相反，比亚迪的优势还是在中国深圳，当地政府已有意支持比亚迪实现其电动车之梦，例如修建充电和其他基础设施，以展示和推广该技术。我个人认为，受累于充电设施有限和高昂的维护成本，这个法兰克福计划不会走太远。但如果比亚迪提供足够的刺激措施，可或许是该计划更为深入的开始，尽管比亚迪不要指望能很快从类似的海外合作中获利。

一句话：比亚迪在德国新的电动车试点项目在很大程度上是一个公关项目，不太可能会在短期内为比亚迪带来任何重大利润。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

◙ BYD Share Sale: A Steer in the Right Direction 比亚迪A股上市是好事

◙ BYD’s EV Strategy: Bury Them With Figures 比亚迪电动车战略：用数字狂轰滥炸

If a market doesn’t exist for your product, then go ahead and make one. That seems to be the hidden message in a new announcement from Guodian, one of China’s major power producers, which has signed an interesting agreement with Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), a leading US lender, to promote wind power development in the United States. (company announcement) Details in this announcement are thin, but the underlying message is clear: in the absence of local efforts to install more solar and wind power in North America and Europe, China is willing to step in and help to build new green energy plants in these markets to help and support its large stable of wind and solar equipment makers, who are now going through one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns. Of course, this kind of Beijing-backed effort to develop clean energy overseas is hardly selfless, and I have no doubt that the vast majority of orders for wind turbines and other equipment resulting from this Guodian-Wells Fargo tie-up will go to leading Chinese equipment makers like Xinjiiang Goldwind (HKEx: 2208) and Ming Yang Wind Power (NYSE: MY). You have to applaud the Chinese for their approach in this case, as attractive tariffs still exist in the West to make wind power a profitable endeavor. It’s just the degree of profitability that has prevented more building of wind and solar plants — something China will try to address by building the plants by itself using its power generating companies as its agents. If this tie-up works, look for more similar arrangements between Western banks and other organizations and Chinese power producers going forward, which will benefit both China’s wind and solar energy equipment makers.

Bottom line: The new tie-up between a major Chinese power producer and US lender Wells Fargo to build US wind power could be a template for China’s future promotion of green energy in the West

如果你的产品没有市场，那麽赶紧创造一个。这似乎是中国主要发电商——国电新声明中的潜藏含义。国电与美国富国银行(Wells Fargo)<WFC.N>签署了一份有趣的协议，旨在在美国推广风电开发。声明中的细节内容很少，但潜在信息却很明确：在北美和欧洲各国不愿安装更多太阳能和风力发电设备时，中国愿插手并帮助这些市场修建新的绿色能源发电厂，从而间接帮助并支持其风力和太阳能设备制造商度过该行业最严峻的衰退之一。当然，这种中国政府支持的开发海外清洁能源的努力绝非无私之举，无疑，国电和富国的合作会带来大量设备订单，其中绝大多数订单将落入新疆金风科技<2208. HK>、明阳风电<MY.N>等中国设备制造商手中。你不得不为中国人在此案中的手腕拍手称道，因西方国家依然存在很具诱惑力的优惠税率，使风电成为一个有利可图的行业。正是盈利程度才是阻碍修建更多风力和太阳能发电厂的原因。这也是中国试图解决的一个问题，中国采取的方式是让国内发电企业作为代理，自行修建发电厂。如果国电和富国的这种合作行之有效，那麽西方银行和其他机构与中国电力供应商之间的类似协议还会有更多，且中国的风力和太阳能设备生产商也会从中受益。

一句话：国电和富国在美国修建风电厂的新合作或许成为中国未来向西方推广绿色能源的一个模板。.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

◙ Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes 明阳挫折凸显行业之殇

◙ Longyuan Looks to Breeze Overseas 龙源电力寻找海外风能市场机遇

Anyone who doubts that China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) is rapidly posing a serious challenge to dominant mobile carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) should look no further than the latest reports of a newly announced tie-up between Unicom and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA). (English article; Chinese article) The tie-up with Sina, China’s most popular Web portal, and Sina’s hugely popular Weibo microblogging service, is a huge endorsement for China’s number-two telco in the mobile 3G Internet space, where Unicom is fast stealing market share from China Mobile. Anyone living in China will have no problem understanding why Unicom is rising so fast. Mobile phone users constantly complain about the slowness and unreliability of China Mobile’s wireless Internet service, which is hamstrung by its government-mandated use of a problem-plagued homegrown 3G technology. Unicom, by comparison, operates a 3G mobile Internet system based on the world’s most popular standard, which is supported by plenty of well-proven handsets, including Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, and efficient infrastructure networking equipment. Sina’s new tie-up, though probably not exclusive, marks a huge affirmation that China’s top Internet content provider sees Unicom as the leading the mobile Internet in China for at least the next couple of years. If its guess is correct, and I think there’s a good chance it will be, we should see Unicom steadily take share from China Mobile in the 3G space, and perhaps even surpass it by the end of next year.

Bottom line: Sina’s new mobile Internet tie-up with China Unicom is a huge endorsement for Unicom, which could surpass China Mobile in the 3G space by the end of next year.

仍然怀疑中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>对行业龙头中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>构成的挑战？看看联通与中国门户网站新浪<SINA.O>近日的联姻，疑虑就该打消了。联通与新浪在多个领域深度合作，包括时下热门的新浪微博衍生产品开发，这是对联通3G互联网业务的巨大支持。联通在3G领域迅速侵吞中国移动的市场份额。只要在中国生活，你就会明白为何联通崛起速度如此之快。手机用户不断抱怨中国移动无线网络服务太慢、太不可靠。中移动受政府分配的本土3G标准掣肘，3G市场开发走得相当艰辛。而中国联通所用3G技术为全球通用标准，受到很多知名手机厂商的支持，包括苹果公司<AAPL.O>的iPhone在内，而且联通还拥有非常有效的基础网络设备。虽然此次与新浪联姻未必排他，但它标志着新浪将联通视为至少未来几年本国移动互联网市场的领头企业。如果猜测无误——我认为猜准的机率非常大——我们应该看到联通在3G领域稳步抢占中国移动的市场份额，甚至有望在明年年底超越後者。

一句话：新浪近日联手中国联通是对後者的巨大肯定，联通明年年底前有望在3G领域超过中国移动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

◙ Unicom Calls on BlackBerry – Finally! 联通推出黑莓业务 可望後来居上

◙ Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好

Playing defense is hardly the style for Alibaba Group founder and chairman Jack Ma, but he seems to be taking just such a posture in his ongoing dispute with partners Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Softbank over the company’s online payments unit. Ma, who rarely holds press conferences these days, took the unusual step of holding one such event this week in his hometown of Hangzhou to try  and explain why he secretly moved Alibaba’s fast-rising online payments service, Alipay, out of his group, China’s largest e-commerce company, and into another independent company without first consulting either Yahoo or Softbank. (English article; Chinese article) Playing defense is clearly not Ma’s style, which leads me to believe he realizes that he committed a major mistake — one which caused Yahoo’s shares to drop sharply when the news got out. Ma justified the move saying that China was preparing to issue its  first round of licenses for domestic online payment companies, and that Alipay might not qualify for a license due to its foreign ownership. According to the reports, Yahoo and Softbank both thought their stakes in Alibaba wouldn’t prevent Alipay from getting a license, and I’m increasingly convinced that this argument has merit. What Ma hasn’t said in all this is that China is preparing to also license foreign companies to provide domestic online payment services later this summer, so the whole debate over domestic versus foreign control of such companies does seem to be a moot point. In that light, Ma’s defensive posture seems much more understandable and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alipay return to Alibaba Group as soon as late this year. In the process, Alibaba may also have to pay Yahoo millions of dollars to help it settle a class-action shareholder lawsuit against it related to this mess.

Bottom line: Alibaba could end up reintegrating Alipay to resolve its dispute with Yahoo over the online payments unit, and could be liable for millions to help Yahoo settle a class-action lawsuit.

防守基本不是阿里巴巴创始人兼主席马云的风格，但近日在他与雅虎<YHOO.O>、软银围绕其在线支付部门的分歧中，马云恰恰是采取了防守姿态。如今已很少举行新闻发布会的马云本周在家乡杭州特地举行媒体沟通会，竭力解释他为何将阿里巴巴集团旗下支付宝的股权转移至另外一家公司，而且事先并未咨询合作夥伴雅虎与软银。玩防守显然不是马云的风格，这也让我觉得马云确实意识到自己犯了大错，因消息一出，雅虎股价急挫。马云解释称，中国政府正准备为国内在线支付企业发放首批牌照，而因外资控股问题，阿里巴巴可能无法获得牌照。根据报导，雅虎与软银均认为其在阿里巴巴的股权不会妨碍支付宝获得牌照，我个人越来越觉得这个说法有道理。马云没说的是，中国还准备在今夏晚些时候批准外国公司在华提供在线支付服务。这样说来，马云的防守姿态似乎更可以理解，而如果最快今年底支付宝就重返阿里巴巴集团，我不会感到惊讶。在这个过程中，阿里巴巴可能不得不支付雅虎数百万美元计的款项，帮助其处理相关的股东集体诉讼案。

一句话：阿里巴巴可能会停止重组支付宝，以解决与雅虎的争端，且可能还要拿出数百万美元计的资金，帮助雅虎处理股东集体诉讼。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽？

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Alibaba Challnges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴：财报说了些什麽？