Journalist China

It’s still breakfast time here in Shanghai, so I’ll start the day with an item on Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM), parent of the KFC and Pizza Hut chains, which continues to feast on a China market hungry for greasy Western fast food. The most interesting item for me on Yum’s earnings announcement is that its deal to buy leading Chinese hot pot chain Little Sheep (previous post) is still alive. The only reference to that deal in Yum’s earnings statement comes in a footnote literally at the very bottom, in which the company says it has placed $300 million in an escrow account specifically for the purpose of buying Little Sheep. That deal was initially announced nearly three months ago, and clearly the main thing still holding it up is approval from Chinese anti-monopoly regulators. While this deal has almost zero monopoly implications, some worry that China’s nationalistic regulator may be reluctant to see a promising home-grown national brand swallowed up by a foreign giant like Yum, and thus veto it. The appearance of this item at the bottom of Yum’s statement, in my view, is likely a quiet message to investors telling them the deal is still alive and the company is cautiously optimistic it will be approved. Such approval would be great news for Yum, which now gets about a third of its global revenue from China and saw its same-store sales in the market grow a healthy 18 percent in the second quarter. (English article) A successful purchase of Little Sheep would give Yum a huge new market segment for growth not only in China but also eventually much of Asia, as the company operates more traditional sit-down restaurants specializing in hot pots, a winter favorite in much of China and countries like Japan and Korea. It would also send an important signal to Western investors that China is prepared to let them buy up healthy Chinese companies with good growth potential.

Bottom line: Yum’s mention of a special fund for its Little Sheep acquisition looks like a low-key sign the company is cautiously optimistic it will complete the deal.

现在在上海依然是早餐时分，所以我想以肯德基和必胜客餐饮连锁店的母公司–百胜餐饮集团<YUM.N>的一则新闻作为一天的开始。百胜刚刚发布2011财年第二季度财报，让我对该财报最感兴趣的一点是，该公司依然有意推进对小肥羊的收购案。财报最底端的注脚部分简单提到了该收购案，百胜向针对收购小肥羊专门开设的托收帐户存入3亿美元。这一收购消息最初是在近三个月前宣布，但很明显，导致该收购案悬而未决的主要障碍是中国反垄断监管部门的审批。尽管该收购案产生的垄断效应近乎为零，但有人担心，中国的监管者或许不愿看到一个有前景的、土生土长的国有品牌被百胜这种外国食品业巨头所吞并，因此会否决该收购案的通过。看我看来，此事出现在财报的底端很可能是向投资者默默传达讯息，告诉他们该公司依然在推进该收购，公司对该案获批持谨慎乐观态度。如果获批，这对百胜肯定是大好事。百胜在全球近三分之一的收入来自中国，今年第二季度在中国的可比店销售增长18%。成功收购小肥羊将不仅给百胜带来中国市场中一个拥有增长潜力的新领域，还将最终扩展至亚洲市场，因为这家公司经营的是采用传统餐厅布置的火锅店，在中国大部分地区和日本、韩国等地区，这种形式深受欢迎。如果成功，也给西方投资者发送了一个重要的信号，那就是中国愿意让他们收购有发展潜力、经营良好的中国企业。

一句话：百胜提到为收购小肥羊开设了一个特别基金，相当於这家公司发出的一个低调的信号，那就是百胜对收购小肥羊感到谨慎乐观。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Heavy Hand Leaves Investors Wary on YUM’s Little Sheep Buy 百胜难吞小肥羊

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

◙ Starbucks, Maxim’s Divorce: Bitter Ending or Sweet Times Ahead? 星巴克与美心闹“离婚”

Less than two weeks after the first signs emerged that something was happening at the top of leading Chinese chipmaker SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), the big power shift appears to have begun. Shanghai’s well-connected financial newspaper, Diyi Caijing, is reporting that SMIC’s CEO David Wang tendered his resignation yesterday, and that the company’s chief marketing officer has also resigned. (Chinese article) I would expect an official announcement from the company in the next day or two, and expect stock reaction will be muted when trading in the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares resumes. The transition, which should see a team of mainland Chinese managers take over from the current Taiwanese team, will bring both good news and bad news for the company, hence the mixed reaction. On the good side, it will end a period of uncertainty and instability for the company as the new leadership team is confirmed. But for the longer term, this new team is likely to bring more instability to the company as it has less experience than the outgoing year-old team, which managed to move SMIC into the black after four straight years of losses. I don’t know enough about the new team to really say how well it will perform. But knowing what I do about how big Chinese companies love to mix business with politics, I really don’t see this as a positive development for SMIC. If the company really wanted to introduce a new team of mainland-born managers, it should have done so in a much more orderly, transparent way than the chaos that has unfolded in previous weeks. The fact that this transition was so chaotic and disorderly probably reflects a similar chaos and disorder within the company’s board and top ranks, which can hardly bode well for it in the next one to two years.

Bottom line: SMIC is likely to see a period of instability and chaos following the departure of its current top management team in a highly disorganized manner.

一个多星期以前，中芯国际(0981.HK: 行情)(SMI.N: 行情)高层动荡初露端倪，现在巨变似乎已经开始。上海《第一财经日报》报导称，中芯国际首席执行官（CEO）王宁国昨日递交辞呈，公司首席营销官（CMO）季克非也已请辞。我预计该公司将在未来一两天发表正式声明，而中芯国际在港上市的股票恢复交易後，股价应该不会有太大反应。中芯国际此次高层动荡，基本是清理现有台湾高管，让大陆人取而代之，这对于公司来说喜忧参半，市场反应也是有好有坏。好的一面是，公司确定新的领导团队，将结束动荡和不确定性。但长期来看，经验不足的大陆高管接管公司，可能将带来更多动荡，毕竟台湾团队在公司连续四年出现亏损後，已帮助公司扭亏为盈。我对新管理层了解不多，无法预测其表现如何。但我了解中国大型企业多喜欢将商业和政治混为一谈，所以我不认为此次变动对中芯国际发展有利。如果该公司的确希望将管理层换血为大陆人，本应该采用更有序、更透明的方式，而不应出现近几周的混乱局面。事实是，中芯国际这次权力交接如此混乱无序，很可能反映出该公司董事会和高层本身的混乱局面，这对未来一两年的中芯国际来说很难是好兆头。

一句话：中芯国际现有高层在一片混乱中离职，可能导致公司未来一段时期的动荡和乱局。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ SMIC Top Management in Throes of Power Struggle 中芯国际管理层陷入权力之争

◙ SMIC Rumbles with Talk of Leadership Change 媒体风传中芯国际领导层变动

◙ SMIC: Forging a Better Future?

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for sputtering auto maker BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), the company has come out with a warning saying its profit fell by up to 95 percent in the first half of the year as sales tanked. (English article) That announcement means that BYD probably slipped into the red in the second quarter, since it reported a $42 million profit in the first quarter but only expects its first-half profit to come in at around $19 million. The slip into the loss column marks a culmination in the fall from grace for BYD, which shot to fame after billionaire investor Warren Buffett purchased 10 percent of the company but has seen its fortunes tumble over the last year. BYD’s shares shot up by many times after Buffett’s original investment, and have given much of those gains over the last two years as it struggled with fading popularity for its traditional cars even as it hyped an expensive electric car program which, at best, is still years from contributing to its top line. This latest warning comes just days after BYD scrapped an auto financing joint venture that had potential to help it boost its flagging sales, which have now fallen for 11 straight months. (English article) France’s Societe Generale pulled out of that joint venture after expressing doubts about the Chinese auto market, and I have no doubt it was particularly concerned by BYD’s own poor performance. BYD shares were down 3 percent in early Wednesday trade in Hong Kong, and are down much more than that this year. Unless the company can return quickly to the black by rolling out some popular new models, which seems unlikely, I see more tough times ahead for BYD. In the meantime, Buffett must surely be wondering about his investment in the company and considering a sale of his stake, which, if it happened, would deal another large blow to BYD.

Bottom line: BYD’s move into the red is the latest negative milestone for this once-promising company, with no signs of near-term improvement on the horizon.

正当你觉得比亚迪<002594.SZ> <1211.HK>的情况已经没法再糟糕了，公司宣布因销量大挫，今年上半年公司利润最高可能下跌95%。这就是说比亚迪第二季度已经亏损了，因公司一季度利润为4,200万美元，但上半年利润预计仅为1,900万美元左右。转盈为亏标志着比亚迪失宠的一个拐点。亿万富翁巴菲特购买比亚迪10%股份後，公司一炮打响，但过去一年中比亚迪市值不断缩水。巴菲特入股後，比亚迪股价翻了很多倍，但是过去两年中因公司在传统汽车领域逐渐失去消费者的追捧，而其大力宣传的电动车项目还需要几年才能为营收做出贡献，其股价涨幅已大幅回吐。而比亚迪建汽车金融合资公司计划刚刚告吹几天就出现这一盈利预警。法国兴业银行对中国汽车市场表达忧虑後，撤出了与比亚迪的这一合资项目，我毫不怀疑法兴银行应该是尤其担忧比亚迪本身的表现。比亚迪H股周三早盘跌3%，今年累计跌幅更高。除非公司推动一些受欢迎的新车型、迅速重新盈利，否则比亚迪未来还会继续坎坷。同时，巴菲特肯定在怀疑对比亚迪的投资，考虑是否出售持股。巴菲特如确实售股，比亚迪必再次大受打击。

一句话：比亚迪转入亏损是这家昔日明星企业一系列负面新闻的又一里程碑。公司短期无转好迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹：价格战越来越近？

◙ BYD IPO: Selling Into a Skeptical Market 比亚迪IPO 市场疑虑重重

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

More worrisome noises are coming from China’s large but struggling solar industry, with the latest sounds of trouble emerging from Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Renesola (NYSE: SOL), two of the top players. The most worrisome rumblings are coming from Trina, which has just announced the departure of its audit committee chairman, an independent director, and some changes at its corporate governance committee. (company announcement) These kinds of moves will certainly look suspicious to investors, especially in the current environment that has seen a ballooning confidence crisis in accounting practices by overseas-listed Chinese firms. Trina shares fell 8.5 percent in New York on Tuesday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more drops in the days ahead as the market holds its breath and waits for signs of a new accounting scandal. As the saying goes, where there’s smoke there’s often fire, and the solar industry is probably due for a scandal as it struggles with its worst-ever downturn amid plunging prices and oversupply. In the second bit of worrisome news, Renesola has sharply revised downward its second-quarter guidance, dropping its module shipment and revenue forecast both by about 15 percent. (company announcement) The company cites declining wafer prices and a “challenging solar module market” behind the steep revisions, which should come as a surprise to no one considering the weak state of the industry. Renesola’s shares were unchanged in Tuesday trade, probably because people were already expecting the worst. But concerns about potential accounting scandals in this battered sector certainly won’t help China’s solar stocks over the short term, and look for the entire industry to take a hit if such a scandal really does emerge — something that looks likely.

Bottom line: China’s already-struggling solar stocks could soon take another hit if and when any accounting scandal emerges following a worrisome announcement by Trina Solar.

中国苦苦挣扎的太阳能行业再传忧心噪音，而最近的麻烦来自业内两个数一数二的大企业：昱辉阳光能源<SOLA.L>与天合光能<TSL.N>。最为令人忧心的当属光合天能。该公司刚刚宣布独立董事兼审计委员会主席离职，公司治理委员会也有人事调整。此类动作必令投资者起疑，尤其当前中国海外上市企业正面临会计问题上的巨大信任危机。天合光能周二在纽约股市大挫8.5%。市场屏息等候企业再爆会计丑闻之际，未来几天如果天合光能股价继续下探，我不感意外。俗话说得好，无风不起浪，太阳能行业在苦苦挣扎于当前颓势、价格下挫与供应过剩之时，或许会爆出新的丑闻。第二条令人忧心的新闻则是昱辉阳光大幅下修二季度财测，模块与营收预测下修幅度双双约达15%。公司称调降财测主要源自硅片价格下降和太阳能工业面临的“挑战”。昱辉股价周二保持稳定，原因可能是人们对坏消息已经早有准备。但是短期而言，市场对会计丑闻的担忧显然对中国太阳能题材股而言不是好消息，如果真爆出此类丑闻，那估计整个行业都会受到冲击。

一句话：天合光能宣布独立董事兼审计委员会主席离职後，如果业内爆出会计丑闻，中国本已苦苦挣扎的太阳能题材股可能再受重创。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Suntech, JA in Latest Solar Rumblings 尚德与晶澳动作频仍

◙ Yingli, Trina Sparkle With Big New Orders 英利和天合光能突出重围

◙ Trina Doubles Warranty in Search of Sales 天合光能：延长产品质保年限以提振销售

Chinese companies without strong central government connections are generally better run and more nimble than their those with such ties, but Hainan Airlines (Shanghai: 600221) — one of the nation’s best-run carriers — is finding out that lack of such connections has its downside. The company has just announced plans to raise $1.2 billion through a new share issue, pricing those new shares a full 13 percent below its last price before trading was suspended. (English article) Those who follow China’s aviation sector will recall that all three of the big state-run carriers, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern, have received large government bailouts in the last two years to help them recover from a sharp downturn during the global financial crisis, coupled with the ongoing hit they are taking from high oil prices. Hainan Airlines, which counts George Soros among its major shareholders, is clearly getting no such generosity from the Hainan provincial government, one of its other major stakeholders. In the short term this kind of market-based fund raising will clearly put Hainan at a disadvantage versus the major state-run carriers, forcing it to pay much higher costs for its recapitalization. Over the long-term, however, this kind of exercise should make the airline stronger, as it learns to deal with market forces using its own resources without depending on government assistance every time it runs into trouble. As I’ve said before, investors who buy shares in large state-run companies, be they banks, airlines or telcos, are partly buying into their government ties, including the implicit guarantee that Beijing won’t allow them to fail. But while that guarantee may look good in times of difficulty, ultimately it undermines these big state-run giants over the long term by keeping them dependent on government support. So while Hainan stock is likely to take a hit when trading resumes, it still looks like a good bet to me over the long haul.

Bottom line: Hainan Airlines’ share sale at a big discount spotlights its independent, market-oriented nature, which will ultimately help it to emerge as a stronger player due to its lack of state support.

与中央没有深厚关系的中国企业往往经营得更好，更加灵活，但是海南航空<600221.S>现在发现，没有这样的关系也有弊端。公司刚刚宣布通过定向增发，筹资12亿美元，发行价比停盘前的最後价格低13%。关注中国航空业的人应还记得三大国营航空公司——中国国航、南方航空与东方航空过去两年中获得了大额政府援助，帮助他们挺过了金融危机期间的急剧衰退，以及目前高油价形成的冲击。海南省政府对海航显然没有那麽大方，海航的大股东中包括乔治•索罗斯。短期来看，此类基於市场的融资方式显然会让海航比国营大型航空企业处於相对劣势的地位，推升了公司的融资成本。但长期而言，此类操作应会让海航更加强大，让它学会如何利用自身资源与市场力量打交道，而不是每次出现问题就向政府求助。正如我以前所说，投资者购买大型国企的股票，无论是银行、航空公司还是电信巨头，其实一部分也是在押注其政府关系，及政府不会让它们倒下的隐含保证。虽然困难时期这些保证看起来很不错，但是长远而言则会削弱这些企业，因它们一直依赖政府。所以，虽然海航股价复盘後可能会受冲击，但长期而言，我认为还是一个不错的选择。

一句话：海航定向增发的定价很低，反映出公司的独立与市场导向特质，而这些特质最终会帮助海航进一步壮大，没有政府支持反是好事。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hilton, Starwood Roll Out Welcome Mat for Chinese 喜达屋、希尔顿迎合中国消费者

◙ Hainan Airlines MGM Play: Soros Calling on Hollywood?

◙ Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程：进军在线订餐

Online video sharing site Tudou seems determined to make its long-delayed IPO regardless of negative market sentiment, filing new documents for its Nasdaq offering that show it is facing a growing pile of copyright infringement lawsuits. I suspect that Tudou founder and CEO Gary Wang is rushing to market despite the poor timing as he attempts to wrap up a messy divorce that has already delayed the IPO of his money-losing company by more than half a year. The amended IPO documents contain details of Wang’s divorce settlement (English article), and also appear to contain information about huge pile of copyright infringement lawsuits hiis company is facing — no doubt from plaintiffs seeking to grab some of the money from the upcoming offering. According to one Chinese media report citing a Tudou disclosure, the company has faced 587 lawsuits since its founding, including 192 that have yet to be resolved (Chinese article) Luckily for Tudou, China’s weak copyright laws don’t penalize infringers too much, but the fact that Tudou has lost the vast majority of these lawsuits means it may eventually have to stop allowing pirated material onto its site that undoubtedly accounts for much of its traffic. Money-losing rival Youku (NYSE: YOKU) is facing a similar issues, and recently signed a landmark deal to offer legitimate Warner Bros (NYSE: TWX) movies and TV shows to its premium customers as it moves to wean itself from pirated material. (previous post) Tudou appears to be further behind in the drive to acquire legitimate material and eliminate pirated content, which will no doubt hurt its growth prospects in the near term. That issue, combined with recent weak sentiment toward US-listed China stocks due to credibility issues, are likely to make Tudou’s offering a dud when it finally comes in the weeks ahead.

Bottom line: Tudou’s upcoming IPO looks set to be a flop, coming into a weak market as the money-losing company grapples with piracy issues.

不顾低迷的市场人气，中国在线视频分享网站——土豆网似乎决意要将其拖延已久的首次公开募股（IPO）进行到底。土豆网已提交新文件，为在美国纳斯达克市场上市作准备，尽管文件显示该网站正面临越来越多的版权官司。我猜想，土豆网创始人兼CEO王微正急於让公司上市，尽管此时并不是一个好时机。王微正试图了结自己的离婚案，因此事已让这家亏损企业的上市时间推迟了半年多。修改後的IPO申请文件涵盖了王微的离婚财产处理细节，也似乎涉及到土豆网面临的大量版权官司。中国媒体援引土豆网披露的信息说，自公司创建以来，土豆网遭遇了587例诉讼案，其中192起仍悬而未决。幸运的是，中国宽松的版权法律不会严惩违规者，但土豆网在多数诉讼案中败北的事实意味着，它或许最终要禁止盗版内容在其网站中出现。土豆网的竞争对手——优酷网<YOKU.N>也面临着类似问题。优酷网刚刚签署了一份具有里程碑意义的协议，以向其优质客户提供华纳兄弟<TWX.N> 的电影和电视节目，作为其逐渐剥离盗版内容的一个举措。在获取正版视频、消除盗版内容方面，土豆网似乎落後了一步，这无疑会在短期内损害其业绩增长前景。该问题以及近期在美上市中国企业信誉问题引发的薄弱人气，均可能使土豆网上市前景一片悲观。

一句话：土豆网的上市前景一片悲观，因这家亏损企业既要处理盗版问题，又要在一个糟糕的时机上市。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Tudou: Back on the IPO Trail 土豆：重回IPO轨道

◙ Youku’s Luxurious Dream 优酷网的奢侈品梦想

I don’t know if this is coincidence, but two of the world’s top hotel operators — Starwood (NYSE: HOT) and Hilton — have just announced strikingly similar programs targeting Chinese travelers, highlighting the growing impact Chinese are having on the overseas travel markets. Both programs offer an array of amenities aimed at the Chinese traveler, ranging from Mandarin-speaking staff at select hotels in major gateway cities, to tea kettles in rooms, written materials in Chinese and local favorites like soy milk and congee on restaurant menus. (Starwood announcement; Hilton announcement) The pair of announcements comes as millions of newly mobile Chinese families prepare to take their summer holidays, and clearly many have the money to spend on expensive hotels like Hilton, Westin, Sheraton and Marriott (NYSE: MAR), providing a huge new opportunity for these chains much the way that Japanese travelers first did in the 1980s. Like their Japanese counterparts, Chinese tourists are often happy to pay big bucks to stay in famous-brand hotels and visit big-name tourist attractions like Disneyland and Las Vegas. So, who exactly is set to gain from the trend besides the big Western hotel names? Other big beneficiaries should include the major Chinese airlines like Air China (HKEx: 753; Shanghai: 601111) and China Southern (HKEx: 1055; Shanghai: 600029), and China travel agencies and online sites like Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and eLong (Nasdaq: LONG) could also reap big bucks if they position themselves to reach this group. As with anything, execution will be key to cashing in on the trend, and the new campaigns by Hilton and Starwood, while small, seem to offer some good examples that others would be smart to follow.

Bottom line: Hilton, Starwood and other travel-related firms could earn big bucks from a new breed of Chinese travelers if they position themselves correctly to reach this increasingly affluent group.

我不知道这是不是巧合，但世界两大酒店运营商——喜达屋<HOT.N>和希尔顿都刚刚宣布了针对中国旅行者的类似计划，凸显出中国人对海外旅游市场不断增加的影响力。两家公司均向中国旅行者推出了一系列针对性的配套设施和安排，从在主要门户城市的部分酒店安排讲中文普通话的员工，到在房间布置茶壶和中文说明，再到饭店菜单上的豆浆和粥等中国人喜欢的饮食等等，不一而足。适逢数百万计中国家庭将过暑假，许多人显然有钱入住希尔顿、威斯汀、喜来登和万豪<MAR.N>等奢华酒店，从而为这些酒店连锁提供巨大商机。正如1980年代的日本游客一样，中国游客往往乐于花大笔钱，入住品牌酒店，再到迪士尼和拉斯维加斯等名胜旅游。所以，除了西方大牌酒店，谁还会从中受益呢？其它主要受益方包括中国国航<601111.SS><0753.HK>、南航<600029.SS><1055.HK>、中国各大旅行社、携程<CTRP.O>和艺龙<LONG.O>等网站。像做任何事情一样，执行环节是在这一趋势中盈利的关键。希尔顿和喜达屋发起的行动尽管规模不大，但仍提供了好榜样，聪明者自会仿效。

一句话：中国出游人数日益增多，所以希尔顿、喜达屋和其它旅游相关企业若能正确定位，势将从这一趋势中获得巨大利润。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hotel Consolidation Moves Ahead With 7 Days Deal 七天连锁酒店收购表明酒店业整合继续

◙ Ctrip Tries Its Hand at Brand Management 携程尝试品牌管理

◙ Lenovo Lodges? Perhaps, Says Liu 联想进军酒店业？

Dutch electronics giant Philips (Amsterdam: PHG), traditionally not very acquisitive in China, is making an interesting move into mainland kitchens with its purchase of a Shanghai-based maker of rice cookers and other electric kettles. (English article; Chinese article) Details are still scarce in this deal, which Philips is confirming but not much more. But Chinese media are reporting the Dutch giant will pay around $355 million for the company, Shanghai Povos, which is on track to notch about $150 million in sales this year. At first glance, it does appear that Phiilips might be paying a bit too much for this relatively small company, at least based on the price versus its sales. But a closer look reveals Philips is clearly interested in Povos’ potential more than its current business. The company’s revenue grew nearly 40 percent in the first five months of the year, and I have no doubt it should be able to maintain or even accelerate that rate in the years ahead for several reasons. First of all, I like the fact that this company is based in Shanghai, which is easily China’s consumer capital and a leader in new product development. Rice cookers are also a nice lower-end appliance that most consumers in this country can already afford, thus giving them huge potential not only in big cities like Shanghai and Beijing but also in pretty much any city all the way down to the smallest villages. Considering that Povos’ sales are most likely now confined to the immediate Shanghai area, Philips could really help the company expand through its own vast national distribution networks in China built up over the years to sell its vast array of other appliances, electronics and other products. With all those factors in its favor, this deal indeed looks like a good bet for Philips, not only in China but perhaps someday as an exporter for rice cookers throughout Asia.

Bottom line: Philips acquisition of a Shanghai rice cooker maker looks pricey on the surface, but will provide it with a strong foundation to grab hearty portion of this lucrative market.

荷兰家电巨头飞利浦<PHG.AS>以往在中国市场并不显得贪得无厌，但日前宣布收购总部位於上海的电饭煲等厨房电器制造商奔腾电器，进军中国大陆电厨具市场，这一举措很有意思。飞利浦确认了该项交易，但并未透露更多细节。中国媒体报导称，收购金额约为3.55亿美元，而奔腾电器今年营收估计是 1.5亿美元。乍一看，对这家相对规模较小的公司，飞利浦似乎出价过高，至少从收购价和营收额之比的角度看是这样。但仔细观察会发现，飞利浦对奔腾电器的潜力显然比对其当前业务规模更感兴趣。奔腾电器今年头五个月营收增长近40%，而且我毫不怀疑，在各种因素的推动下，该公司未来几年能保持甚至加快这一增速。首先，我喜欢该公司位於上海这一点，因上海是中国的消费中心，也是新产品研发中心。电饭煲是不错的较低端家用电器，中国多数消费者能买得起，不仅在上海和北京等大城市存在商机，而且从城市到村庄都有市场。鉴於奔腾电器销售目前应该主要局限於上海及附近地区，飞利浦可以利用其多年来打造的全国销售渠道，帮助奔腾电器拓展国内市场。考虑到这些有利因素，飞利浦收购奔腾电器不仅是对中国市场的一次不错投资，可能有朝一日还有助其向亚洲其他地区出口电饭煲。

一句话：飞利浦收购上海奔腾电器看似出价有点高，但将为其争夺这块利润丰厚的市场奠定坚实基础。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Micron Nods to China’s Gadget Clout 美光科技押宝中国电子器件市场

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

◙ China TV Makers Lack Right Stuff to Profit fom Sony Woes 索尼遭殃谁受益？

After a few weeks of relative quiet from two of China’s top exporting stars, Huawei Technologies and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) have both returned to the headlines in their latest efforts to break into skeptical Western markets, most notably the US. First Huawei. In a relatively high-profile move, Huawei has called on the US telecoms regulator, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), to “clarify” its stance on letting Huawei bid for contracts in a US program to update the nation’s emergency communications networks. (English article) According to a China Daily report, Huawei previously applied to take part in the program, but never got a response. This move is clearly designed to force the Obama administration — which is trying to improve relations with China — to take a definite stand on letting Huawei sell its equipment in the US. While this kind of approach seems smart in principle, Huawei has made a poor decision in using this program  to push Obama since emergency networks are much more sensitive than commercial ones, and thus the president will feel strong pressure from conservative politicians to give Huawei and definitive “no” in response to its requests. In ZTE’s case, the company has issued a high-profile announcement saying it has received a $900 million syndicated bank loan from a group led by Bank of China. (company announcement; Chinese article) What’s significant in this case is that 8 of the 10 banks participating in the syndicate are major global players, including Singapore’s UOB and DBS, Japan’s Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Banco Santander and Bank of Nova Scotia. Clearly this deal, and the high profile announcement, are designed to show the world that ZTE is a serious global player that can attract financing from major global banks, and isn’t dependent on China’s state-backed, policy-driven banks to support its business and global expansion. This move looks like a smarter one than Huawei’s, in my view, and should help ZTE gain the kind of credibility it is seeking in the eyes of skeptical Westerners who doubt the company’s ability to thrive without support from Beijing.

Bottom line: Huawei’s latest pressure on the Obama administration to sell to the US is a risky move that’s likely to backfire, while ZTE’s new syndicated loan will showcase its growing global stature.

华为和中兴通讯<00063. SZ><0763.HK>在经过几周的相对平静後，日前他们打入西方市场的最新举措再次成为热门新闻，尤其引人注目的是华为在美国成立研发中心。华为相对高调地要求美国联邦通讯委员会（FCC）允许华为竞标美国升级国家应急通讯网络项目的问题上“明确表示立场”。据《中国日报》报导，华为此前曾申请该项目，但从未得到回应。此举明显旨在敦促试图改善中美关系的奥巴马政府表态，明确支持华为在美国销售其设备。这种方式理论上看似明智，但华为利用该项目敦促奥巴马属於不明智，因国家应急网络比商业项目更为敏感，因此保守派将对奥巴马施以重压，奥巴马势将对华为的请求说“不”。中兴通讯高调宣布，以子公司–中兴香港为主体与中国银行为首的10家银行签订总额为9亿美元的银团贷款协议。值得注意的是，这10家银行中有八家是跨国大银行，包括新加坡大华银行和星展银行、日本三菱东京日联银行、西班牙国家银行和加拿大丰业银行。这项协议及高调声明旨在向世界证明，中兴通讯在全球举足轻重的地位，能够吸引各大跨国银行提供融资，并不需要依赖受政策驱动的中国国有银行支持其业务和全球扩张。在我看来，此举比华为更加高明，有助於中兴通讯获得西方信任，因为西方质疑若没有中国政府扶持，该公司不会有很大发展。

一句话：华为日前向奥巴马政府施压，要求後者支持其在美销售，这一举措颇具风险，可能会事与愿违，而中兴通讯签署银团贷款协议将证明其全球地位日益增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

◙ ZTE Gets Rare Good News in Telenor Tie-Up 内外交困的中兴获Telenor青睐

There are several new developments in the ongoing confidence crisis toward publicly listed Chinese firms,  reflecting a new reality that investors are still receptive to such plays but clearly prefer ones with solid balance sheets and good long-term growth prospects. Reflecting that trend, Sun Art Retail Group, China’s largest hyper-market operator, is moving ahead with its Hong Kong IPO and has actually priced the deal at the top of its range, raising $1.1 billion. (English article) Clearly the market is still excited about industry leaders in sectors with strong growth potential — in this case supermarkets, which should see strong expansion prospects as China builds out a new generation of mini-cities around its major urban centers. (previous post) At the other end of the spectrum, China’s largest port builder, China Communications Construction, has pulled a $3 billion IPO in Shanghai due to poor investor sentiment. In this case the market clearly wasn’t too excited about this company, as China’s port-building industry has probably already undergone its largest expansion and future growth could be muted. (English article) Last but certainly not least there’s the latest news from the beleagured Longtop Financial (NYSE: LFT), whose ongoing accounting scandal in many ways kicked off the current confidence crisis in overseas-listed China stocks. In the latest twist with this company, a law fiirm has put out a last call for anyone interested in joining a class-action lawsuit against Longtop, reminding them they must sign up by July 22. (announcement) This announcement is just the latest reminder of the huge hurdles ahead for Longtop, whose other woes include the resignation of its CFO, auditor and three independent directors (previous post), as well as an ongoing investigation. I would be extremely surprised to see Longtop survive this crisis, which is likely to claim many similar companies before investors regain confidence in this group.

Bottom line: Strong results for IPO candidate Sun Art and the latest woes for Longtop show that overseas investors are becoming increasingly selective about China plays.

中国赴美上市企业信任危机出现些许新进展，显示投资者仍可接受这一现象，但明显更青睐那些资产负债表稳健、长期增长前景良好的企业。中国高鑫零售在香港首次公开募股（IPO）的发行价定在区间的最高端，融到11亿美元。市场仍明显看好业内具有强劲增长潜力的领袖企业，以超市行业为例，随着中国年轻人开始在大城市郊区购房，有望带动郊区超市发展。形成鲜明对比的是，由於中国股市整体疲软，中国最大的港口建设商–中国交通建设公司在上海IPO规模为30亿美元。市场明显并不太看好这家公司，原因是中国港口建设行业很可能已经经历了史上最大的扩张速度，未来增长有限。最後是东南融通（Longtop Financial）<LFT.N>的最新消息，该公司的会计丑闻在很大程度上掀开了中国海外上市企业信任危机的冰山一角。最新消息是，一家律所发出最後呼吁，提醒有意参与对东南融通集体诉讼的人士，应在7月22日前签名加入。这将再次提醒投资者，东南融通前路所面临的巨大坎坷，其它伤痛还包括其首席财务官（CFO）、审计师和三名独立董事请辞，以及该公司正在接受调查。如果东南融通能度过此次危机，我会极为惊讶；在投资者对中国赴美企业重建信心前，还将有许多类似公司受到影响。

一句话：高鑫零售IPO规模庞大和东南融通最新受创表明，海外投资者对中国企业的股票越发挑剔。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China, US Move to Ease Confidence Crisis 中美合作解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机

◙ China’s Drive to the Suburbs: A Nice Supermarket Play 中国年轻人郊区购房 超市势将获益

◙ Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new restructuring announcement contains details on the four main business units it will form in its latest transformation, but the subtext in all this is the problems the company has faced retaining top talent and moving into new product areas. Clearly Baidu CEO Robin Li is trying to reassure investors by pointing out that three out of four of his new division heads have been at the company for six years or more. (company announcement) Unfortunately, what appears to be the most important new appointment — head of new commercial products and technologies — has only been with the company for a year, throwing a spotlight on the difficulty that Baidu has had in nearly all of its new product initiatives over the last few years. Its list of failing of failed new initiatives is long and varied, including a struggling Japan business (previous post) and shuttered micro-blogging and e-commerce services. (previous post) Chatter is nearly non-stop about the latest departure of top executives at the company, no doubt due in part to all these failed initiatives and possibly in part due to Li’s own difficulties in communicating with his top management team. As the latest case in point, the restructuring announcement says that senior vice president Shen Haoyu will be leaving Baidu at the end of the month for “personal reasons”, industry jargon for saying that he and Li didn’t see eye to eye on important issues. Clearly Li is worried about his company’s inability to find any new business areas to diversify beyond its core online search business, whose growth is likely to slow down in the next few years. This restructuring is probably designed to show investors Baidu is working actively to keep its growth alive, but it will take more than announcements to do that. In the meantime, look for more turmoil at the top of Baidu as it struggles to chart a new direction.

Bottom line: Baidu will continue to be plagued by turmoil in its top management and failure of its new initiatives, as CEO Robin Li struggles to find a long-term growth formula for his company.

百度<BIDU.O>最新重组声明整合四大业务部的细节，但言下之意是该公司面临留住高端人才和开发新产品的困境。百度首席执行官（CEO）李彦宏指出，四个新部门的负责人有三人在公司任职至少六年，显然希望以此打消投资者疑虑。但不幸的是，看起来最重要的新任命–新商业产品和技术部负责人却刚进百度一年，凸显百度过去几年几乎所有新产品的开发都受挫的困境。百度有很多开拓新业务以失败告终的例证，包括日文搜索引擎、微博和电子商务平台。有关百度多名高管离职的传闻不断，毫无疑问，部分原因是新举措失败，还可能因为李彦宏自身与管理团队沟通不畅。最近一个很好的例子是，重组声明称，百度高级副总裁沈皓瑜将在月底因“个人原因”离职，言外之意是他和李彦宏在重要问题上有分歧。李彦宏显然担忧百度无法拓展搜索引擎以外业务，未来几年这一核心业务势必放缓。这次重组可能是向投资者证明，百度积极采取行动，以保证其增长，但该公司要做的不止发声明这麽简单。同时，预计在百度寻找新的发展方向时，其高层还将继续发生动荡。

一句话：由於百度首席执行官李彦宏未能找到公司长期增长模式，百度未来将继续受高层动荡和新举措失败的困扰。（

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Flounders Abroad, Wastes Time With Microsoft Tie-Up 百度海外拓展 与微软合作纯属浪费时间

◙ Baidu’s Mobile Plan: Do We Need Another OS? 百度手机操作系统计划有没有市场？

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场