BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪:累了?

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for sputtering auto maker BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), the company has come out with a warning saying its profit fell by up to 95 percent in the first half of the year as sales tanked. (English article) That announcement means that BYD probably slipped into the red in the second quarter, since it reported a $42 million profit in the first quarter but only expects its first-half profit to come in at around $19 million. The slip into the loss column marks a culmination in the fall from grace for BYD, which shot to fame after billionaire investor Warren Buffett purchased 10 percent of the company but has seen its fortunes tumble over the last year. BYD’s shares shot up by many times after Buffett’s original investment, and have given much of those gains over the last two years as it struggled with fading popularity for its traditional cars even as it hyped an expensive electric car program which, at best, is still years from contributing to its top line. This latest warning comes just days after BYD scrapped an auto financing joint venture that had potential to help it boost its flagging sales, which have now fallen for 11 straight months. (English article) France’s Societe Generale pulled out of that joint venture after expressing doubts about the Chinese auto market, and I have no doubt it was particularly concerned by BYD’s own poor performance. BYD shares were down 3 percent in early Wednesday trade in Hong Kong, and are down much more than that this year. Unless the company can return quickly to the black by rolling out some popular new models, which seems unlikely, I see more tough times ahead for BYD. In the meantime, Buffett must surely be wondering about his investment in the company and considering a sale of his stake, which, if it happened, would deal another large blow to BYD.

Bottom line: BYD’s move into the red is the latest negative milestone for this once-promising company, with no signs of near-term improvement on the horizon.

正当你觉得比亚迪<002594.SZ> <1211.HK>的情况已经没法再糟糕了,公司宣布因销量大挫,今年上半年公司利润最高可能下跌95%。这就是说比亚迪第二季度已经亏损了,因公司一季度利润为4,200万美元,但上半年利润预计仅为1,900万美元左右。转盈为亏标志着比亚迪失宠的一个拐点。亿万富翁巴菲特购买比亚迪10%股份後,公司一炮打响,但过去一年中比亚迪市值不断缩水。巴菲特入股後,比亚迪股价翻了很多倍,但是过去两年中因公司在传统汽车领域逐渐失去消费者的追捧,而其大力宣传的电动车项目还需要几年才能为营收做出贡献,其股价涨幅已大幅回吐。而比亚迪建汽车金融合资公司计划刚刚告吹几天就出现这一盈利预警。法国兴业银行对中国汽车市场表达忧虑後,撤出了与比亚迪的这一合资项目,我毫不怀疑法兴银行应该是尤其担忧比亚迪本身的表现。比亚迪H股周三早盘跌3%,今年累计跌幅更高。除非公司推动一些受欢迎的新车型、迅速重新盈利,否则比亚迪未来还会继续坎坷。同时,巴菲特肯定在怀疑对比亚迪的投资,考虑是否出售持股。巴菲特如确实售股,比亚迪必再次大受打击。

一句话:比亚迪转入亏损是这家昔日明星企业一系列负面新闻的又一里程碑。公司短期无转好迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹:价格战越来越近?

BYD IPO: Selling Into a Skeptical Market 比亚迪IPO 市场疑虑重重

Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业:当繁荣已成往事

 

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