Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

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The first quiet signs have emerged that a price war is building in China’s chilly auto market, with Ford (NYSE: F) disclosing that it’s coming under pricing pressure as sales slow under economic cooling measures from Beijing. (English article) The comments from Ford’s Asia chief at a recent US event were very low key, only saying the company has seen pricing pressure in the last 3-4 months. He didn’t give any numbers, but I’ve been  in the news business long enough to know that executives don’t usually make this kind of comment unless they want to brace investors for disappointment or worse. After more than a year of blistering growth of 50 percent or more, fueled in large part by incentives from Beijing, China’s auto market has slowed considerably in the last few months to low single-digit growth and even contraction. Unit auto sales were up an anemic 2 percent in July (English article), but that number says nothing about prices, which I suspect are down 5-10 percent from the previous year as many larger cities limit new buying to ease congestion. The pressure is likely to intensify in the coming year, as billions of dollars in spending on new capacity announced during the boom period start to come online. Smart players like General Motors (NYSE: GM) are bracing themselves for the coming China winter by exporting their China models and designs to other emerging markets and by developing new brands aimed at smaller cities where the slowdown won’t be as big. GM officially launched its made-in-China Baojun brand just last week (English article), and said earlier this week it will use made-in-China kits to build a locally developed minivan in India. (English article) But while GM and its China partner, SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) have the resources to make such protective moves, other domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and Geely (HKEx: 165) look much more vulnerable, and are likely to see their profits drop sharply in the months ahead or even sink into the loss column.

Bottom line: Ford’s recent comments indicate prices are dropping in China’s overheated car market, with the pressure likely to continue for at least the next year.

有初步迹象表明中国汽车市场将打响价格战，汽车巨头福特(F.N)称感受到定价压力，因中国旨在令经济降温的措施导致汽车销售放缓。福特负责亚太业务的负责人此番表态相当平和，只是说过去三四个月中感受到了定价压力。他未提供数据，但我在媒体界多年，深知企业高管很少会作这样的表态，除非他们希望投资者作好悲观准备。去年得益于政府刺激措施，中国汽车市场增速至少50%，而过去几个月则明显速度放缓，甚至到了萎缩的地步。7月汽车销量增长2%，但这根本没有反映出价格因素，我推测汽车价格同比下降了5-10%，因为许多大城市出台限购令，以解决道路拥堵。未来一年车市价格压力可能加深，因厂商扩充产能的投资将到位。象通用汽车(GM.N)这样精明的厂商已经相应作了调整，将在中国生产车型和设计向其他新兴市场推广，并面向小城市开发新的品牌，因为这些城市的汽车销售放缓程度没那麽严重。通用上周刚刚正式推出“中国制造”的品牌“宝骏”，且本周稍早称，将对在中国设计的小型货车进行改造，在印度生产和销售。虽然通用与上汽(600104.SS: 行情)有足够资源采取这类自我保护性举措，但其他国内汽车厂商，譬如比亚迪(1211.HK)和吉利(0175.HK)则更容易受到冲击，未来数月利润可能大幅下降，甚至可能出现亏损。

一句话：福特近期言论意味着，中国汽车售价将呈下滑，这样的压力可能至少在未来一年中将持续。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹：价格战越来越近？

◙ BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪：累了？

CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

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The conservative China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), the nation’s second largest lender, may be preparing to take its first big steps onto the global stage, with an Indonesian deal that looks interesting though a bit risky. Media are reporting that the bank is in talks to buy a stake in closely held PT Bank Maspion Indonesia, whose owners want to sell more than 50 percent. (English article) The news comes not long after reports  that CCB’s bigger rival, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), was in talks to buy a controlling stake in the Argentine unit of South Africa’s Standard Bank for $700-$800 million, as China’s largest lenders, with encouragement from Beijing, seek to spread their wings beyond their protected home market. (previous post) At first glance the potential CCB deal looks interesting. Indonesia is a developing market with many similar characteristics to China, which would allow CCB to leverage its experience to do business there. What’s more, PT Bank looks very manageable in terms of its size, with a modest value of around $200 million. My major concern comes in terms of regulation. According to the media reports, Indonesia is currently considering legislation that would limit foreign shareholders to holding minority stakes in banks. If PT Bank Maspion were a large lender with an experienced management team, this restriction might be less worrisome. But considering its smaller size, the lack of majority control could severely limit CCB’s ability to manage this new asset if it ended up buying a stake, restricting it to the role of a largely passive investor as its Indonesian management ran the show. That said, perhaps CCB would be better off as a more passive investor for its first major purchase abroad, allowing it to become more familiar with doing business outside China while leaving day-to-day business to locals who know the market better. On the whole, I would weigh in as neutral on this deal, which looks like a relatively risky but manageable first step onto the global stage for CCB.

Bottom line: CCB’s potential purchase of a minority stake in a mid-sized Indonesia lender looks like a risky but manageable first step for the bank onto the global stage.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

◙ Bocom Chases Global I-Bank Business With Big Bucks 交通银行打算花大价钱吸引投行人才

◙ Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

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Finally there’s a bit of news out ther about online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) that I like, with Chinese media reporting the company is in talks to buy Tudou, one of China’s top online video sites. (English article; Chinese article) Regular readers of this blog will know that I consider Baidu a classic one-note samba, relying on search-related advertising for almost 100 percent of its revenue despite numerous failed attempts to diversify into other businesses. (previous post) But in this case, a purchase of Tudou, a relatively successful company in the online video sharing space, would make great sense for both companies and could ultimately help Baidu achieve its evasive goal of deriving profits from something besides search. Tudou is clearly in dire need of cash, based on its determination to go forward with a delayed IPO despite facing the worst market for such offerings since the financial crisis of 2008. (previous post) So from Baidu’s perspective, it could probably take advantage of Tudou’s need for cash and turbulence on Wall Street to buy the company for a very good price. From Tudou’s perspective, Baidu would be an extremely strong partner in two ways. Most importantly, Baidu could tinker with its search results, which it already frequently does, to favor Tudou over other video sharing sites like industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU). In addition, Baidu could also use its industry clout to help Tudou sign favorable licensing deals for legal video, as Beijing pressures China’s Web firms to offer more legitimate content instead of the pirated material they have thrived on for years. Youku made a step in that direction when it signed a deal in June with Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) (previous post), and Baidu itself signed a similar tie-up with major music labels last month. (previous post) If Baidu does reach a deal for Tudou, it will have a bit of work to do, as the company posted a loss of $12 million in the second quarter, triple the $4 million loss for Youku. Baidu Chairman Robin Li could also find it challenging to work with Tudou founder Gary Wang, whose messy divorce held up his company’s IPO which was originally slated for late last year. But Wang’s weak financial position may leave him with little choice than to sell out, with Baidu offering one of the best potential partners.

Bottom line: Baidu could achieve its elusive goal of diversifying beyond its core online search business with a potential purchase of online video sharing site Tudou.

百度(BIDU.O)终于有条合我口味的新闻了。据中国媒体报导，百度正在洽谈收购土豆网。经常浏览我博客的读者们知道，我一直认为百度是只有一个舞步的桑巴，近乎100%的收入依赖于搜索相关的广告，虽然有一些尝试业务多元化的动作，但多是无果而终。但就此案例而言，土豆网是一个运作相对成功的网上视频分享网站，购买它对两家公司都有很大意义，而且最终有可能帮助百度增加营收渠道。土豆如此糟糕时机下仍坚持IPO，明显是急需资金。所以，从百度的角度出发，充分利用土豆的资金需求以及华尔街的震荡，它也许可以用很好的价格买下土豆。再从土豆的角度来看，百度是一个非常强有力的合作夥伴。最重要的是，百度可以对页面搜索结果稍作调整，使土豆的内容相比优酷等竞争对手显示在搜索结果更有利的位置。另外，百度还可利用其行业影响力，帮助土豆签下有利的合法视频许可协议。目前政府正施压中国网络企业提供合法内容，弃用盗版内容。优酷网(YOKU.N)在这一方向上已经迈出了一步，6月份公司与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)签署合作协议。而百度上月也宣布与多家唱片公司联手合作。如果百度确实为土豆达成了类似协议，那麽土豆可能有一些功课要做，因为公司第二季度报告亏损1,200万美元，是优酷的三倍。此外，百度董事长李彦宏也可能会感到与土豆创始人王微共事有些麻烦。要知道土豆网IPO原本定在去年底，正是因为王微复杂的离婚纠纷拖延了IPO时间。但是鉴于土豆网目前财务状况，王微除了出售公司外选择寥寥，而百度正好是最好的潜在合作夥伴之一。

一句话：百度如果收购土豆，可能从单一搜索业务模式逐渐走向多元化。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

◙ Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

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Telecoms firm ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) latest earnings show a sharp divergence in its top and bottom line growth, the result of  a big new gamble on its small but fast-growing smartlphone business that it hopes will offset sluggish growth at its networking equipment unit. The company says  its revenue grew around 30 percent in the second quarter, a strong improvement over the first quarter, but that its latest quarterly profit actually fell more than 20 percent, a sharp about-face from 16 percent growth in the previous quarter. (company announcement) It cites an aggressive gamble on its smartphone business behind the profit decline, as it sells its smartphones, mostly based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system, at ultra-low prices in a bid to become one of the world’s top 5 vendors in the next 2 years. ZTE said its smartphone unit sales rose 400 percent to 5 million in the first six months of the year, even as gross margins for all handsets fell sharply on its aggressive smartphone pricing. A company source previously told me ZTE hopes to sell $600 million worth of smartphones in the US this year alone (previous post), and based on reports I’ve seen saying many of those phones could retail for as little as $100, ZTE will need to sell more than 6 million of those phones in the US alone to meet that target. Such plays for rapid market share gains are a risky bet, with Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) serving as a classic case of a company whose willingness to gain share at the expense of profits nearly drove it to bankruptcy a decade ago and are threatening to undermine it again. Still, I would give this ZTE initiative a 50-50 chance of success, provided it can really post the rapid market share gains it expects in the next 1-2 years and then use its new clout to slow raise prices to more sustainable levels. In this case execution will be key, which could work to ZTE’s disadvantage as this such strong execution isn’t typically a strong point for many Chinese firms.

Bottom line: ZTE’s decision to sacrifice short-term profits to rapidly expand its smartphone business is a risky but potentially profitable bet, with a 50-50 chance of success.

在中兴通讯最新财报上，公司营收与利润差异巨大，而原因主要在于其押注规模较小但增长快速的智能手机业务，公司希望利用这块业务来弥补其网络设备业务的缓慢增长。中兴通讯发布业绩快报称，第二季度公司营收增长大约30%，较一季度有很大改善，但是二季度利润下降超20%，而其一季度为16%的正增幅。公司解释称智能手机业务是利润下降原因，因公司为能够未来两年内位列全球五大手机厂商，其智能手机售价非常低。公司还表示，今年上半年其智能手机销量上升400%，达到500万部。一名公司消息人士此前曾向我透露，中兴通讯希望今年在美销售总额达6亿美元的智能手机。而据我所看到的报导，手机售价可能低至100美元，如果按此计算，中兴通讯仅在美国就需要卖出600多万部手机才能实现目标。这种为快速获得市场份额的举动可谓冒险，台湾宏基(2353.TW)就是一个经典案例。该公司通过牺牲利润来换取市场份额，几乎让它在十年前濒临破产。不过，我觉得中兴的这种策略依然有50%的成功机率，前提是中兴真的能在未来1-2年快速获得其预期的市场份额，然後利用其新的影响力逐渐将价格提高至更可持续的水平。在该案例中，执行将是关键，但可能不是中兴的强项，因这种执行力通常不是很多中国企业的强项。

一句话：中兴牺牲短期获利来换取智能手机业务快速发展的决定有风险，但可能也是有利可图的，其成功机率为50%

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

Simcere Suffers Side Effects of Health Care Reform

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I’ve generally been quite bullish on China’s ongoing overhaul of its healthcare system and the huge potential it offers drug makers, but Simcere Pharmaceutical’s (NYSE: SCR) latest results show that like everything else, health care reform also has its downside. Simcere reported its revenue was nearly flat in the second quarter this year versus a year earlier, even as profit from operations grew a more respectable 27 percent. (company announcement) It attributed the anemic top line growth to changes in government pricing policies, a not-so-subtle reference to the fact that Beijing is asking for big price concessions from drug suppliers in exchange for including their products in its new system to provide affordable basic health care throughout the country. Such price squeezing will affect everyone, from Simcere to larger firms like Hisun Pharmaceutical (Shanghai: 600267) and Sinopharm (HKEx:1099), which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone but could cool revenue growth for many of these firms over the next 1-2 years as reform is implemented. Once that pricing pressure is factored in, I would expect to see top line growth for Simcere and its peers return to healthier levels. To combat low margins from drugs sold in the reform program, I also like Simcere’s initiative to focus on developing its own new drugs, which typically command a much better profit margin than the generic drugs that  use formulas whose patents have expired and therefore are available for anyone to manufacture. Simcere’s new joint venture with Merck (NYSE: MRK) (previous post) should help in its new drug development efforts, though again, don’t look for any major contributions on that front for at least the next 2-3 years, which is typically the shortest possible period for new drug development.

Bottom line: Simcere and other Chinese drugmakers will see slow top-line growth in the next 1-2 years, as China squeezes them for price concessions.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Merck Finds Potent China Partner in Simcere 默克牵手先声药业

◙ Pfizer Pairs With China Partner to Tap Health Care Reform 辉瑞与海正合作开拓中国医药市场

◙ Shanghai Pharma IPO Looks Like Good Medicine 上海医药IPO似为一剂良药

Soufun Shores Up Foundation With Strong Results, Outlook 搜房网靓丽财报和前景或预示房产业向好

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The good news keeps coming from real estate services firm Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) which, after announcing a nice dividend just two weeks ago, has reported solid quarterly results and raised its 2011 guidance, in what also looks like a good sign for the real estate sector. The company’s revenue nearly doubled in the quarter and its operating profit quadrupled. (company announcement) It also upped its annual revenue outlook by nearly 10 percent, saying it now expects 2011 revenue to come in at $290-$300 million versus previous guidance of $270-$280 million. The strong results came just 10 days after Soufun announced a dividend that amounted to a cash return of about 5 percent, in a bid to lure back investors as US-listed China stocks take a broader beating due to concerns about their accounting. (previous post) Soufun didn’t provide any commentary with the results, but clearly the ongoing correction in China’s overinflated real estate market isn’t as severe as many had predicted, at least not yet. That news should also bode well for other big real estate services firms like E-House (NYSE: EJ), which is in dire need of good news after a very weak first-quarter report that saw it slip into the red. (previous post) We’ll have to wait for E-House’s results to see if a turnaround is really underway for the broader sector. But at first glance at least, Soufun’s strong results seem to say that demand for real estate services and transaction volumes are picking up as home buyers look for bargains after months of waiting to see the effects of Beijing’s attempts to cool the market. Healthy activity for lower priced homes in smaller markets might also be a factor in Soufun’s good results, as evidenced by a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report earlier from Vanke (Shenzhen: 000002), China’s leading home builder. (English article)  Regardless of specifics, all the signs certainly seem to point to better times ahead for Soufun.

Bottom line: Soufun looks like a good bet following strong Q2 results and a new dividend, boding well for the broader real estate sector.

房地产服务公司搜房网(SFUN.N)不断传来好消息。公司两周前刚刚宣布派息，现又公布了第二季度的靓丽财报，且提高了2011财年的预估收入，这似乎也是房地产行业的一个好迹象。搜房网第二季度的营收增长近一倍，其营业利润同比增长3倍。公司还将年度营收预估提高了近10%，称目前预计2011财年的营收额在2.9亿-3亿美元之间，高于此前2.7亿-2.8亿美元的预期。因受累于在美上市企业会计丑闻所带来的不利行情，就在10天前，为重新吸引投资者，搜房网宣布决定每股普通股派发一美元股息。搜房网没有就该财报提供任何评论，但很明显，中国房地产市场正在进行的修正并没有很多人预计得那麽严重，至少目前看是这样。这则消息对易居中国(EJ.N)等其他大型房地产服务公司亦是利好。此前，易居中国第一季度录得的业绩十分黯淡。我们还需等待易居中国发布第二季度的财报，以确定整个房地产业是否出现好转。但至少初步看来，搜房网的靓丽财报似乎说明，购房者在观望政府楼市打压政策数月後，国内对房地产服务的需求和交易量都在增加。较小市场低价房屋的良好动向或许也是搜房网靓丽财报的一个因素，此前万科(000002.SZ)优于预期的第二季度财报便是明证。所有迹象似乎都预示搜房网前景向好。

一句话：搜房网二季度财报靓丽，加上此前宣布的派息，该公司看似一个不错的选择，并预示整个房地产业前景向好。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sofun’s New Strategy: Dividend Wave Ahead? 搜房网新策略：中国概念股派息潮即将来临？

◙ E-House Foundations Looking Outright Shaky 易居中国根基明显摇晃

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

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There’s nothing like a big fat dividend to say you’re sorry, or at least that seems to be what online game operator Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) is telling investors by becoming the latest US-listed Chinese firm to offer a dividend after coming under fire for some of its accounting practices. The company also announced the resignation of its CFO, again in an apparent attempt to mollify investors about one of its investments in an insurance business. But first the dividend. Just a week after real estate services firm Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) offered wary investors a 5 percent dividend (previous post), becoming the first major US-listed Chinese firm to offer such a dividend, Giant has come out with its own offering of a dividend of $3 a share, according to its latest results announcement. (company announcement) That translates to a yield of a whopping 40 percent, one of the highest rates I’ve seen in recent years, based on Giant’s latest closing price. At the same time, the company also announced the resignation of its CFO, who is being replaced by another person whose credentials include a stint at global accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. (company announcement) Reading between the lines seems relatively simple here: Giant’s chairman used the company as his personal investment vehicle to buy an insurance company, a move that no doubt was approved by a CFO who was eager to please his boss even though insurance was completely unrelated to Giant’s core gaming business. When investors found out, they protested by selling off Giant shares, which tumbled 30 percent in the last 3 months. To win investors back, Giant is offering this generous dividend and has fired its CFO as a scapegoat. This is exactly the kind of shenanigan that has led to a broader confidence crisis over the accounting practices of US-listed Chinese companies. If I were an investor, I would certainly consider buying Giant for the short term simply for the dividend. But longer term, I’d still be quite wary of this and many other US-listed Chinese companies.

Bottom line: Giant Interactive’s awarding of a generous dividend and firing of its CFO is an attempt to mollify investors over accounting concerns, which will continue to weigh on the company’s stock.

要想表达歉意，没什麽能比提供一份丰厚的分红更好的了——至少近来因会计事宜而遭遇批评的网络游戏公司巨人网络是想通过这种方式来与投资者沟通。巨人网络还宣布首席财务官(CFO)辞职，很明显这也是就一笔保险生意的投资来安抚投资者。就在一个星期前，搜房网(SFUN.N: 行情)决定给投资者5%的分红，这是第一家这麽做的在美国市场上市的中国公司，而巨人网络则紧随其後，提供每股3美元的分红，这意味将40%的利润用来分红，这是近年来我看到的分红力度最大的一次。同时，巨人网络还宣布了新的CFO上任，此人曾经在普华永道工作。解读这一系列事件，其中隐含的意思其实很简单：巨人的董事长将这家公司作为其个人投资工具，购买了一家保险公司，而CFO为了讨好自己的老板，就毫不犹豫地批准了，没有顾及到保险业务是与巨人的核心游戏业务完全无关的。投资者发现後，通过抛售巨人股票以示抗议，巨人股票在过去三个月就大跌30%。为了安抚投资者，巨人提出分红并解雇CFO。但实际上这会让人们对巨人的财务状况产生更大的信任危机。如果我是投资者，我肯定会短期内买巨人的股票，来获得分红，但从较长期投资角度而言，我会对巨人公司和其他在美国上市的中国公司持警惕态度。

一句话：巨人网络公司提供丰厚分红，解聘其CFO，是为了安抚投资者对会计问题的担心。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sofun’s New Strategy: Dividend Wave Ahead? 搜房网新策略：中国概念股派息潮即将来临？

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

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It’s been less than a week since Beijing announced new incentives to help boost its struggling alternate energy sector (previous post), and already we’re seeing the first trickle of new deals as state-run entities start to heed the call to help these companies by building new projects. In the first round of what will undoubtedly be many similar announcements in the months ahead, solar cell maker Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has signed a contract with a unit of China Power Investment Corp to provide panels for a plant in Qinghai with up to 30 megawatts of capacity. (company announcement) In a similar deal announced at nearly the same time, wind energy specialist Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) has announced its own tie-up with another state-owned entity, the operator of the massive Three Gorges Dam Project, to co-develop wind energy projects in Guangdong province and potentially overseas down the road. (company announcement) Neither of these deals should come as a huge surprise to anyone, as Beijing has indicated for the last few months that it will step up to help these promising but struggling young companies through the worst-ever downturn for their young industry. What is a bit surprising is how fast Beijing has taken action, with these two deals coming just a week after it announced its first concrete incentives to help the sector, which just proves that the central government can move surprisingly fast when it makes up its mind to do something. This coming wave of orders from domestic Chinese power producers, combined with recent positive signs from the global market (previous post) mean the sector will be poised for a sharp comeback in the months ahead, making these beaten down stocks an attractive prospect in the second half of the year.

Bottom line: The solar sector is poised for a strong comeback, riding a rebound in global demand and a coming wave of new domestic orders like ones just announced by Trina Solar and Ming Yang.

中国政府宣布新能源刺激政策还不到一个星期，我们已开始看到新的协议签署，因国有企业响应号召，通过新项目来帮助这些企业。光伏产品制造商天合光能<TSL.N>与中国电力投资集团旗下公司签署协议，向青海一工厂提供太阳能面板。未来数月，预计还将有更多类似协议宣布。几乎与此同时，风电厂商明阳风电<MY.N>宣布，与另一家国有企业–中国三峡集团旗下公司中国三峡新能源公司签署协议，在广东省共同开发风电项目，未来还可能在海外进行合作。这些协议毫不令人感到意外，因为中国政府最近几个月已表示，将帮助这些遇到困难的新能源企业渡过难关。但让人意外的是中国政府行动会如此之快–刚刚宣布新的行业扶持政策就有两宗协议签署，由此证明，只要中央政府下定决心，就可快速行动。中国国内风电企业的此番“订单潮”以及全球市场最近出现的积极迹象都意味着，太阳能产业未来数月料迅速扭转颓势，今年下半年这些公司的股票料前景向好。

一句话：全球需求反弹以及中国将出现一批类似天合光能、明阳风电的新协议，太阳能产业料强势复苏。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中 天合光能仍疑云密布

◙ China’s Solar Plan: Get Ready for Big New Spending

◙  Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职：昭示问题还在前方

News Digest: August 6-8, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 6-8. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) In Deal to Jointly Develop Offshore Wind Power in Guangdong (PRNewswire)

◙ Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) Announces Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

◙ China Everbright Bank Said to Delay Share Sale on Volatile Global Markets (English article)

◙ Former SMIC (HKEx: 918) Executive Qiu Ciyun Named CEO (Chinese article)

◙ 51job Inc (Nasdaq: JOBS) Reports Q2 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

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Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achieves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.

Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.

新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域，都算是後来者，但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉，上月启动轻博客公测版後，其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充，两款产品实现相互联通，实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长，若到今年底用户达到1,000万，我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实，则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N)，今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速，微博也开始盈利，我认为，最快到明年底，新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起，在美国上市。与此同时，腾讯也制定详细计划，打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网，将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似，腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群，将服务拓展至新领域，短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O)，成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然，腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些，需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位，我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客，其成功几乎没有悬念。

一句话：新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量，而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举