Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

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With its new top management now firmly running the show, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) continues to embrace its previously neglected 3G network, preparing to roll out a large new array of handsets that will work on the system using a homegrown mobile standard. Local media are reporting that China Mobile is preparing to launch some 30 new 3G handsets for its TD-SCDMA system, covering a wide range of price-points and models from nearly every major manufacturer, including Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and BlackBerry (Toronto: RIM), as well as homegrown players ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Of course, the big piece still missing is a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, but all indications point to introduction of an iPhone that can work on China Mobile’s 3G system by the end of the year. (previous post) As its 3G push picks up momentum, look for the balance in China’s young 3G market to swing back in China Mobile’s direction, as it retakes share from rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Separately on the telecoms front, Nokia has come out and confessed that it is suffering from “channel issues” in China, following media reports earlier this month that its China distributors were rebelling en masse by refusing to sell its increasingly unpopular models after years of bullying. (Chinese article) According to this  latest report, Nokia forced large volumes of its phones on distributors in the first quarter of this year, allowing it to post 30 percent shipment growth in China for the period. But many of those phones couldn’t compete with more popular models, especially in the smartphone space, causing inventories to balloon and distributors to refuse to accept more handsets. As a result, Nokia’s China shipments tumbled 41 percent in the second quarter. Clearly the company is set for more stormy times ahead in China, at least until it comes out with its highly-anticipated new line of smartphones later this year based on Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Mango operating system.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new 3G push will help it grab market share from rivals, while Nokia will continue to slide in China at least until it rolls out its new Mango-based smartphones.

中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)在新的管理层全力指挥下，继续向先前忽略的3G网络发力，准备扎堆推出一系列采用本土3G标准的新款手机。据国内媒体报导，中移动准备发布高、中、低档总数约30款的TD-SCDMA新机型，分别出自诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)、三星电子(005930.KS)、黑莓制造商Research In Motion(RIMM.O)及本土企业中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)与华为等厂商。当然，仍然缺少重量级产品–TD版的苹果iPhone，但所有迹象都表明：适用于中国移动3G网络的TD版iPhone今年年底前可能推出。随着中移动突击发展3G网络，中国诞生不久的3G格局可能会向中移动倾斜，因它可能会从竞争对手中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)与中国电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)中抢回一些市场份额。另外，在手机制造商方面，诺基亚已经承认在中国市场“渠道”环节出问题。此前媒体报导称，由于中国渠道商不愿出售诺基亚越来越受不欢迎的机型，诺基亚开始遭遇集体“反水”。根据最新报导，诺基亚今年第一季度在向渠道商大量压货的情况下，手机出货量有不错表现，录得30%的同比增长。但很多诺基亚机型无法与对手竞争，尤其是在智能手机领域，造成库存高企，渠道商拒绝接受更多现货。结果，诺基亚第二季度在中国的手机出货量同比大跌41%。显然，诺基亚未来在中国还要面临很多困难，至少今年稍晚推出搭载微软最新的Mango操作系统的新产品系列前，道路会很坎坷。

一句话：中移动在3G领域再发力，有助于帮助它从竞争对手手中夺回一些市场份额；诺基亚近期在华业绩仍会下滑，至少其Mango系统新机推出前难改颓势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

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There’s not a lot to say about any one of China’s major state-owned banks for the latest earnings period, except that collectively they all posted record profits as they continue to reap strong revenue from record lending in 2009 and strong margins as China raises interest rates. (English article) ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), the nation’s largest bank and last to report, said its profit jumped 30 percent in the second quarter to $17 billion, in a typical scenario for most banks. If the banks are smart, I hope they’re using all those profits to bolster their capital, which seems to be constantly falling short of Beijing’s ever-rising reserve requirement ratios. Of course all these hikes are designed to brace the banks for an expected shock they will suffer if and when the real estate market corrects, which will severely affect not only their real estate loans, but the debt-repayment ability of local governments that rely heavily on land sales to pay off their loans. We already saw the first signs that a second round of massive capital raising may be coming last month, when China Merchants Bank (HKEx: 3968; Shanghai: 600036) announced plans to raise $5.4 billion through rights offerings. (previous post) China has been so worried about the looming downturn, and forcing its banks to prepare so much, that I’m starting to wonder if perhaps all the panic isn’t a bit overblown. Investors seem to think perhaps Beijing is being a bit too conservative, with ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288) shares both outperforming the Hang Seng Index this year, though China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), which has more exposure to real estate, is faring less well. On the whole, I would say to look for the bank stocks to outperform the market in the months ahead, as investors start to believe that perhaps these troubled lenders have built up a big enough cushion to withstand the coming real estate downturn.

Bottom line: After record profits and massive fund raising two years ago, China’s banks may finally be adequately capitalized to withstand the coming downturn in China’s real estate market.

关于中国各大国有银行最新财报，并没有过多可谈论之处。除了一点：在2009年贷款额创新高及中国加息所带来的利润推动下，各家银行均发布了创纪录的收益。工商银行(1398.HK; 601398.SS)称，该行第二季度利润增加30%，至170亿美元，多数银行都取得了类似增长。如果各大银行聪明的话，我希望他们会利用所有利润充实资金，由于中国政府不断提高存款准备金率门槛，各家银行资金一再告急。当然，如果房地产市场降温，银行料将受到冲击，不仅是房贷严重减少，地方政府还贷能力也将降低，因为其主要依赖卖地还债。上月初步迹象显示，中国银行业或将掀起新一轮大规模融资，中国招商银行(3968.HK; 600036.SS)宣布，将在香港和上海发行权利股，筹集54亿美元。中国政府担忧经济低迷隐现，敦促各大银行提高存准率，我不禁猜想，这一切是否有些过度惊慌。投资者似乎认为，中国似乎有点过于保守，尽管中国建设银行(0939.HK; 601939.SS)受房地产影响较大，股价表现平平，但今年工行和农业银行(1288.HK; 601288.SS)股价均跑赢?生指数。整体而言，由于投资者开始相信，各大银行已搭建起足够大的“软垫”，预防楼市或将出现的低迷情况，我预计，未来几个月银行股将跑赢大盘。

一句话：鉴于中国银行业利润创新高，并在两年前大规模融资，中国银行业或终能保持资本充足，抵御中国楼市或现低迷的隐忧。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

 

Geely-Volvo: Good First Year, But Fork in the Road Ahead

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More than a year after Geely (HKEx: 165) made its landmark purchase of Volvo from Ford (NYSE: F), Volvo has released its first performance numbers that come closest to reflecting its new ownership, pointing to a rosy honeymoon but potential difficulties ahead. In the first half of the year, Volvo’s global sales rose a healthy 20 percent, helping to lift it to an operating profit of $190 million, company officials said at a recent event in Beijing. (English article) What’s more, Volvo’s China sales roses 36 percent, a big number on the surface but still only representing 21,000 vehicles. What these numbers tell me is that Geely is taking a largely hands-off approach to Volvo, continuing to let the Swedes run the show, which is a good thing as they clearly know how to make quality cars that the market wants. While all that looks fine for now, the future problems will come with Geely’s plan to build two massive new factories to produce Volvos in China and significantly boost the brand’s sales in Geely’s home market. This big new investment is clearly coming from Geely, whose Chairman Li Shufu wants to promote Volvo as his company’s luxury brand in China. Once these new plants come on stream and start to produce in earnest, I can see the potential for major clashes between Volvo’s management in Sweden and Geely’s top brass in China, as each will have different views about how these two massive new plants should be run, as well as how Volvos produced at the plants should be marketed. Such turmoil is still probably at least 2-3 years down the road as construction is just beginning on these plants. So for now at least, Geely and Volvo should enjoy their honeymoon as much as they can, and brace themselves for a sobering new reality when they are forced to work together to forge a common vision for the Swedish nameplate.

Bottom line: Volvo has posted a solid first year under its Geely ownership, but conflict lies ahead as the Swedish carmaker presses ahead with ambitious new plans for China.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China’s Car Rebound: Price War Looming? 中国车市反弹：价格战越来越近？

◙ Geely’s Volvo Roadmap: Laden With Potholes?

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

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Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.

Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.

别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。

一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

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Perhaps I’m becoming a bit biased due to my belief that China is in the midst of an Internet bubble, but the latest word from online retailing giant 360Buy that it is cutting off Alibaba’s Alipay online payments service to me looks like the latest sign of a swollen China Internet sector under growing duress. As many will recall, 360Buy made headlines earlier this year when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion in new funding, a record for a private Chinese Internet company and just one of a large number of fundings of $100 million or more as both domestic and foreign investors piled onto the China Internet bandwagon. (previous post) One of the 360Buy investors, Russia’s Digital Sky Media, justified the massive investment by saying the company could be worth a staggering $10 billion — about triple the value of most of China’s biggest Internet firms excluding titans Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). So I find it a little surprising that 360Buy CEO Liu Qiangdong is citing Alipay’s annual costs of about 5-6 million yuan, or less than $1 million, as the reason behind is company’s decision to cut off the service. (Chinese article) I’m certainly not in favor of needlessly wasting money, but for a company that just raised $1.5 billion to say an annual expense of $1 million is too high, especially in a high-growth area like e-payments, sounds to me like 360Buy is coming under increasing pressure to slash costs as its new impatient investors push it to become profitable — something that may not happen soon due to fierce competition in China’s e-commerce market. This latest move by 360Buy, combined with recent massive layoffs by Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent, (previous post) are just the latest signs of China’s growing Internet bubble, which could start to burst in dramatic fashion in the next 6 months.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s termination of its agreement to offer Alipay e-payment services is the latest sign of a building Internet bubble in China.

也许我是有点偏见，我认为中国互联网正出现泡沫。不过从京东商城近日宣布停用支付宝来看，似乎确实印证中国互联网产业面临更大压力。许多人应该都还记得，京东商城今年早些时候获得海外15亿美元融资，京东商城投资方之一–俄罗斯投资公司DST当时大谈此宗投资的合理性，称京东商城价值高达100亿美元。因此现在京东CEO刘强东以“费率高”为由，宣布停止与支付宝合作，让我有点意外，毕竟京东每年付给支付宝的费用也就是500-600万元人民币，还不足100万美元。我当然不是主张不必要的浪费，但作为刚融资15亿美元的京东商城，说每年100万美元的电子支付费用太高，让人感觉似乎京东商城在降低成本方面压力加大，因为投资方要求其实现盈利，而这在眼下中国竞争激烈的电子商务市场来说很难。京东商城此举，加之高朋网裁员，都是中国互联网呈现泡沫的迹象，也许未来六个月中我们会看到泡沫开始戏剧性破灭。

一句话：京东商城停用支付宝，是中国互联网产业出现泡沫的最新迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

 

Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

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Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) Chairman Chen Tianqiao is either very persistent or very stupid, as he returns to market with an IPO for his online literature unit, Shanda Cloudary, just months after he shelved the offering due to poor market sentiment, even as current sentiment remains poor. I’ve heard the guy is quite intelligent, even if most of his business endeavors don’t yield very impressive results, so I’m willing to give this new offering a look. (English article) Based on the numbers, the story actually looks quite interesting. Cloudary’s two biggest income sources, revenue from online users and from its online wireless service, both rose by triple digit percentages in the first half of the year, with the latter up more than 200 percent to a relatively modest 73.7 million yuan, or about $12 million. The company posted a net loss for the first half of the year, but that loss narrowed to about 14 million yuan from 22 million yuan in 2010. With revenue of around $50 million in the first half of this year, Cloudary is clearly not a huge company yet and has lots of room to grow. I’ve previously yawned at this offering, calling it just another attempt by Chen to squeeze more money out of financial markets, but I have to admit the numbers do seem to tell an interesting story. What’s even more interesting for me, however, is the reality on the ground: walking around in Shanghai, it’s nearly impossible to go for more than a few minutes without seeing someone on the subway or waiting in line at a shop reading on their cellphone or tablet computer. Perhaps it’s news, or perhaps it’s literature or perhaps it’s both. But regardless, Cloudary does seem to be in a strong position to take advantage of this trend, which will undoubtedly grow stronger as mobile devices such as e-readers and smartphones become more common. That said, I’m going to tweak my previous prediction and say that despite a dismal debut by video sharing IPO Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) earlier this month (previous post), Cloudary could actually do well in its offering and bring back a little buzz to the sputtering China Internet.

Bottom line: Shanda’s Cloudary online literature unit could offer an intriguing play into the growing market for mobile content with its upcoming IPO.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

◙  Dud Looms With Shanda Literature Offering 盛大文学上市令人不解

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

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The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (English article) If true, such a development could provide not only headaches for Google and Android, but also for the growing field of Chinese smartphone makers that have relied on the free operating system to develop low-cost models favored not only in developing markets like China, but also by cost-conscious consumers in developed  markets like the US and Western Europe. Up-and-comer ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) would be most vulnerable to such a move by Apple, having staked its future on grabbing global market share with its low-cost Android based smartphones. Other companies that look vulnerable include Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose young smartphone initiative is already sputtering just a year after its launch, and ZTE rival Huawei, which is also trying to make a splash with smartphones as growth for its older telecoms equipment business starts to slow. Such a move by Apple could also hit the prospects of TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618), whose cellphone business has posted a strong comeback in the last year after taking a serious hit after it acquired money-losing assets from Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) six years ago. I actually know the Reuters reporters who wrote the Apple low-cost iPhone story, and both are quite reliable so I’m fairly confident it’s only a matter of time before low-end iPhones hit the market. If and when that happens, look for the Chinese smartphone makers to suffer big headaches as a result.

Bottom line: Apple’s launch of a low-end iPhone could further cement its dominance in the global smartphone market, at the expense of Chinese players like ZTE, Lenovo and Huawei.

当人们热议乔布斯辞去苹果(AAPL.O)首席执行官（CEO）职务时，我关注的新闻是，苹果或即将打入低端智能手机市场。苹果从不讨论其未来计划，但两名消息人士透露，苹果正在研发低端版iPhone 4，将与谷歌(GOOG.O)Android操作系统手机占据的一部分市场进行正面交锋。尽管这还只是传闻，但如果消息属实，这一研发不仅让谷歌和Android业者头痛，也会让中国智能手机制造商苦不堪言。後者依赖免费的Android操作系统，研发低成本机型，这些低端机型不仅受到中国等发展中国家青睐，在美国和西欧等发达市场，也受到节俭消费者的欢迎。苹果此举或让中兴通讯(0763.HK)(000063.SZ)最“受伤”。中兴将公司未来押宝在利用低端Android智能手机掠夺全球市场的战略上。其它容易受创的公司包括联想(0992.HK)和华为。联想启动仅一年的智能手机项目已取得不俗成效，华为则因电信设备业务增长放缓，同样试图推智能手机业务提振业绩。苹果推低端版iPhone也会对TCL通讯(2618.HK)发展造成影响，TCL通讯六年前收购阿尔卡特-朗讯(ALUA.PA)亏损的手机资产後一度严重受创，但去年该部门业绩强势反弹。我认识报导苹果可能推低端版iPhone手机消息的两位路透记者，他们的消息都很可靠，所以我很有理由相信，该款手机上市只是时间问题。如果苹果发布低端版iPhone 4，我预计将让中国智能手机商极为头痛。

一句话：苹果推出低端版iPhone，或进一步巩固其全球智能手机市场主导地位，代价则是中兴通讯、联想和华为等中国手机制造商受到冲击。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

CNOOC Woes Spotlight Environmental Perils

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We’re getting a bit more color on the ongoing oil spill saga in the Bohai Bay, from CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO), which has revised down its 2011 output target in light of the stubborn spill in the drilling project operated by ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) (English article) The company, one of China’s top 3 oil producers along with PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857) and Sinopec (NYSE: SNP; HKEx: 386), said it will reduce its 2011 output target by up to 9 percent in light of the spill, which has seen persistent leeks spring up at the wells being drilled by ConocoPhillips, even as it reported its first-half profit rose 51 percent (company announcement) as it and its peers feasted off high global oil prices. CNOOC’s lowering of its output target spotlights its dependence on joint projects like the one with ConocoPhilliips, as well as its vulnerability to accidents like the one in Bohai Bay. What it hasn’t discussed, and what could potentially provide even more headaches in the coming months, is the issue of liability for the spill, which has become the subject of daily headlines in the Chinese media. A government environmental watchdog has already announced its intent to sue for damages, and buzz is building that the country needs to reform its system of financial penalties to provide adequate punishment. Under the current system, designed to protect state-owned firms that once dominated China’s business landscape, most fines are essentially meaningless because they are too small to seriously impact a company’s profits. If the system is revised, which looks likely, future liability for accidents at home could become a major new risk for not only CNOOC, but also any domestic or foreign energy company doing business in China.

Bottom line: The ongoing oil spill in the Bohai Bay will not only hurt CNOOC’s output this year, but could provide additional headaches in the form of longer-term liability.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ CNOOC’s Latest M&A: A Shaky Oil Sand Castle 中海油收购加国油砂生产商或招来更多麻烦

◙ Bohai Spill: A Slippery Mess for CNOOC 中海油的漏油危机

◙ PetroChina Seeks Global Integration 中石油试图融入全球市场

Hertz, GE Give Jolt to BYD Electric Cars 赫兹新项目为比亚迪“加油

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After months of announcing electric car deals that have largely left me unimpressed, BYD (HKEx: 1211) has finally come up with a tie-up that looks like a move in the right direction in its uphill quest to boost its costly alternate energy vehicle program. Ironically, or perhaps appropriately, BYD, the struggling auto maker backed by Warren Buffett, was surprisingly quiet during this latest announcement, leaving most of the talking to Hertz, the US auto rental giant which is teaming up with General Electric (NYSE: GE) in this latest initiative. (English article) The initiative will see Hertz offer BYD’s E6 electric vehicles for rent in Beijing, Shanghai and BYD’s hometown of Shenzhen, with GE helping to build up an initial network of 770 charging stations. This is exactly the kind of public-private partnership that we need to see more of from BYD, whose electric vehicle tie-ups to date have mostly been with local governments and have put few if any of its cars in the hands of consumers whose mass buying power will be critical to the success of any electric car initiative. Hertz and GE bring two strong private-sector partners into this equation, no doubt with strong support from city governments, ensuring that decisions will be made on a commercial basis rather than a political one. This program also offers the advantage of scalability if it proves popular, with the national potential that only a private sector organizer could bring. If it works, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hertz and GE eventually bring EVs by other car makers like SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) into the program eventually, and expand the program throughout China

Bottom line: BYD’s new partnership with Hertz and GE marks its smartest tie-up to date to promote its struggling electric car business, and could provide a template for future development.

数月来比亚迪(1211.HK)宣布的电动车协议大多平淡无奇，但日前一次联合看起来终于像是走到了正确的方向上，朝着推动比亚迪替代能源汽车目标努力。不过很有意思但也很恰当的是，比亚迪对于此次合作意外地安静，大多数发言都出自美国租车公司赫兹国际(HTZ.N)。 赫兹联合通用电气（GE）(GE.N)在华推广电动车，且将优先采购中国国产电动汽车，最先选定车型是比亚迪E6，初期先在上海、北京和深圳三地试点推广。GE将帮助建成第一批共770个充电站。这正是比亚迪需要推出更多的“公私联姻”模式。迄今为止比亚迪的联合对象多属地方政府，并未把多少电动汽车推到消费者手中。此次合作中，当地政府的支持当然毋庸置疑，而赫兹与GE的参与，相当于两个强大的私营部门角色加入其中，从而保证相关决定基于经济基础而非政治基础。该项目如被证明很受欢迎，具备在全国推广的潜力，将带来规模效应，而向全国推广，操作上只有私营力量才能运作。我认为，如果方案可行，赫兹与GE可能会逐步将其他厂商，如上汽集团(600104.SS)的电动车引入项目中，并面向全国推广该项目。

一句话：比亚迪与赫兹、GE的新项目是比亚迪迄今最明智的“联姻”，有助于其苦苦挣扎的电动汽车业务，并为未来发展提供一个样板。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

◙ BYD: Running on Empty? 比亚迪：累了？

◙  BYD EV Buses Get German Toehold 比亚迪电动车在德国找到立足点

Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

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At first glance, video sharing site Youku’s (NYSE: YOKU) new announcement regarding the creation of a new video series together with Dutch electronics giant Philips (Amsterdam: PHG) looks like little more than PR, which led me to pay little attention when it landed in my email box. (company announcement) But closer inspection reveals a more innovative tie-up, which has Philips essentially paying for the creation of an exclusive new video series for Youku in exchange for sponsorship rights, much the way advertisers pay for traditional TV series with their advertising dollars. According to Youku, the first episode of the series, about a young designer trying to win back his girlfriend from a wealthy man, was viewed 2 million times in its first 24 hours — numbers that would make most TV channels envious. While I’m still not completely convinced about Youku’s long-term viability as a stand-alone online video provider, initiatives like this, which are costing it nothing and bringing in millions of viewers, look like a smart formula for success as the money-losing company seeks ways to turn a profit. This latest effort follows another Youku initiative back in June, when it became China’s first big portal to sign a licensing deal with a major Hollywood studio, in this case offering content from Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) to its premium subscribers. (pervious posting) These kind of initiatives are exactly the kind of thing that Youku and video- and music-sharing rivals like Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), Xunlei and even Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) need to be doing in order to ensure their long-term viability. Recent talk that Youku may be in talks with for an equity tie-up with China Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) (previous post) are making this company look like an even stronger bet to maintain its position as China’s leading online video site, and potentially even a profitable one in the near future!

Bottom line: Youku’s foray into sponsored video series looks like a good move with strong future potential as it weans itself from pirated content.

乍看起来，中国视频分享网站优酷(YOKU.N)与荷兰电子厂商飞利浦(PHG.AS)联合出品系列网络电影的新项目不过是公司公关而已，所以一开始邮箱里出现这条消息时，我并未在意。但是进一步的观察发现，其实这一合作还有着非常创新的一面：飞利浦其实通过出资为优酷创作独家网络电影，以换取赞助权。据优酷介绍，系列电影第一支短片《爱有多久》首映24小时内，点播量高达200万，这一数字足以让多数电视频道感到眼红。短片讲述一名年轻设计师如何从一名富翁手中赢回自己的女朋友。虽然我对优酷能否长期扮演在线视频提供者的角色还存有质疑，但此类创意举措，用不着优酷花钱，还能吸引数以百万计的观众，看起来像是优酷寻求扭亏为盈的“巧妙配方”。此前，优酷6月份宣布与华纳兄弟(TWX.N)合作，由优酷通过视频付费点播服务，向高端用户提供450部华纳影片，并成为第一家赢得好莱坞主流片商授权的中国大型门户网站。此类做法正是优酷、土豆(TUDO.O)、迅雷，甚至百度(BIDU.O)等类音乐与视频分享网站需要去做的事情，因为这样可以保证他们的长久生命力。而且最近还有传言称优酷可能正在与腾讯(0700.HK)洽谈股权合作事宜，似乎意味着优酷保持国内在线视频网站领头羊的机率更高，甚至有可能近期扭亏为盈。

一句话：优酷涉足有赞助的网络电影项目看似是明智之举，未来颇为看好，有助于其摆脱盗版内容。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

◙ Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Spreadtrum Takes Smart Gamble on China 3G

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Having survived an attack by short-sellers, cellphone chip designer Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) is broadening its smart move into smartphones, this time by taking a big gamble on TD-SCDMA, the homegrown third-generation (3G) mobile standard being developed and promoted by China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). Many will recall that this company made headlines earlier this year when short sellers attacked it over questions about its inventory — questions the company later successfully fended off. (previous post) In the meantime, the company said it was placing its bets for the future on smartphones (previous post), which have shown huge growth potential as celllphones become more and more like wireless computing devices. In the latest wrinkle, the company has disclosed that it now controls more than half of the market for chipsets used in smartphones that run on TD-SCDMA, the homegrown Chinese 3G wireless standard being used by China Mobile. (company announcement) If you had asked me 3 months ago what I thought about this, I would have said that Spreadtrum was wasting its time and money, as China Mobile was showing little interest in promoting its 3G service, which many considered unreliable due to the untested nature of the technology. But in just the last two months, China Mobile has suddenly shown a new interest in promoting the service, making Spreadtrum’s bet suddenly look much better. Its investment in TD-SCDMA will also inevitably give it a headstart in developing chipsets for the standard’s 4G successor, TD-LTE, which China Mobile is actively developing and could launch commercially as soon as next year. Many carriers outside China are also taking a serious look at TD-LTE, which could further boost the market for this standard. Of course, other chipset makers will probably see what’s happening and jump on the TD bandwagon, but Spreadtrum’s early entry into this space should give it a clear advantage for at least the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: Spreadtrum’s aggressive push into TD-SCDMA looks like a smart move in light of China Mobile’s recent promotion of its 3G service.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Spreadtrum On Cusp of Putting Out Short-Seller Fire 展讯力抗卖空方

◙ Spreadtrum Steps Up Smart Drive 展讯通信向智能手机市场迈出精明一步