Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Suntech, Canadian Solar in Latest PR Moves 尚德电力和Canadian Solar就西方倾销顾虑作出回应

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I’ll close out this week with a couple of items from the solar sector, where heavyweights Suntech (NYSE: STP) and Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) are continuing an ongoing public relations campaign to convince the west that their business is good for everyone and not just China. That campaign comes as growing signs emerge that the industry’s year-long downturn, which has sent most major players into the red, may finally be nearing an end and a new spring may soon arrive. China’s solar sector, which now produces more than half the world’s solar panels, has suffered a double blow over the past year, hit not only by a global supply glut but also by the threat of anti-dumping tariffs in both the US and Europe — the world’s 2 biggest markets. To combat the dumping claims, the sector has made repeated efforts over the last 6 months to show it doesn’t only sell its made-in-China products to the west, but that it can also help western economies by creating new jobs and business opportunities. The latest Suntech and Canadian Solar announcements appear to be part of that PR initiative. In one of the announcement’s Suntech said it has sold solar cells to produce 3.4 megawatts of electricity to Edwards Air Force Base in California, carefully pointing out that cells for the deal were produced at its factory in Arizona. (company announcement) On the other side of the Atlantic, meanwhile, Canadian Solar has just announced it is launching a qualified reseller agreement in Europe. (company announcement) This announcement also seems to be sending a similar message to Suntech’s, by pointing out that resellers in Europe can also make profits from selling Canadian Solar’s solar cells, thus bringing benefits to their local economies. While these announcements are clearly a public relations exercise, I think they also do reflect the very real fact that Suntech, Canadian Solar and their peers realize that they will have to do more to benefit the economies of the countries they sell to, and that they will also have to show the world that they don’t receive unfair subsidies from Beijing in the form of low interest loans, export tax rebates and cheap land. The US has already indicated it won’t punish the Chinese companies with high tariffs if they do more to wean themselves off support from Beijing and do more manufacturing in the US. (previous post) Europe is likely to take a similar approach, meaning the industry should avoid a trade war that would benefit nobody and hurt global development of this important alternate energy sector. Meantime, emerging signs are also appearing that the sector’s downturn has bottomed out, with Suntech’s chairman predicting earlier this month that many players will return to the black by the end of this year. (previous post) If things keep going smoothly on both the trade and pricing fronts, look for a strong rebound from this battered sector starting in the second half of the year, including nice upside potential for solar stocks.

Bottom line: The latest PR moves by Suntech and Canadian Solar show the sector is responding to western dumping concerns, as dangers of a trade war continue to ebb.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ LDK Cuts, Suntech Waits As Solar Winter Nears End 太阳能行业冬季将结束：赛维裁员，尚德等待

◙ Solar Tariffs: US Takes Middle Road 太阳能关税：美国采取折中路线

◙ New Solar Storm Brews in Europe 欧盟或发起反倾销调查 中国光伏业再蒙阴影

360Buy Looks Around to Real Estate 京东商城试水房地产

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I have no idea what’s happening behind the scenes at 360Buy, but a growing number of mixed signals from this online retailing giant seem to portray a company sinking into turmoil, including the latest news that it is now getting into the real estate services business. (English article) According to the latest reports, 360Buy, which also goes by the name of Jingdong Mall, has teamed up with a Beijing real estate company called Tianheng as a potential prelude to entering the online home shopping business. While homes are also a consumer retail product, selling such major items online is far different from 360Buy’s core retail business of selling everyday products like electronics, clothing and books. What’s more, 360Buy has no experience in this kind of transaction, which is far more complex than buying a tube of toothpaste over the Internet. This new initiative is just the latest sign of a company that is losing focus as big new investors who pumped more than $1 billion into it last year seem to be looking for any and every new business opportunity they can think of. The company entered the highly competitive online book selling business in January (previous post), and in February it made a strange move into the online travel business, putting it into direct competition with well established players like Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and eLong (Nasdaq: LONG). (previous post) The steady stream of new initiatives comes not long after the investor group that included Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies made the $1 billion-plus investment about a year ago, leading me to believe this group is at least partly behind these moves as its members anxiously look to justify their huge investment. Amid the stream of new business initiatives, increasing signs have emerged of a behind-the-scenes battle over the timing of an initial public offering by the company. 360Buy’s founder Liu Qiangdong has repeatedly said that no such offering is in the works for at least the next 2 years. But at the same time, another steady stream of reports that appear to be coming from the banking world keep emerging that say the company has hired an investment bank as it prepares to make a multibillion-dollar IPO. (previous post) The increasingly mixed signals look like a worrisome trend for potential investors, indicating this company is rapidly losing direction and focus as a number of major stakeholders all try to take control. Presumably the company still has lots of cash and doesn’t urgently need to raise money through an IPO after its big fund raising last year. Still, if it does go ahead with a public offering, I would caution investors to be very wary of buying into this company until it can regain some of its focus and concentrate on becoming profitable.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s move into real estate services is the latest mixed signal from the company, which appears to be losing focus as stakeholders and managers battle for control.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Message to 360Buy: Make Up Your Mind! 京东商城IPO“暗战”

◙ 360Buy Losing Focus With Travel Plan 京东商城涉足在线旅行服务业 偏离核心业务

◙ 360Buy Heats Up E-Books, People’s Daily Goes to Market 京东商城高调进军电子书,人民网开启上市进程

Huawei-Motorola Rumors Look Logical 华为收购摩托罗拉手机业务传言看似合情合理

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I was highly skeptical at first about a rumor that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) might be in talks to sell its Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) handset business to telecoms equipment and cellphone giant Huawei; but the more I think about it the more it makes sense, leading me to speculate that the rumor may actually be true. The source of all the buzz is actually quite small, namely a small mention at the very end of a Wall Street Journal article in which the author simply says that rumors are swirling that Google has already offered to sell its newly acquired Motorola handset business to Huawei, even though it also cites a person close to Google denying any such talks. But regardless of what people are saying, such a deal would make good sense for both Google and Huawei, and here’s why. For its part, Google is an Internet and media company first and foremost, and has little or no experience in the highly competitive and lower margin cellphone business. Most believe the only reason Google even purchased Motorola’s handset business at all was to get the company’s extensive patent portfolio, which it hoped to use in its legal battle with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) involving Google’s Android cellphone operating system. From Huawei’s perspective, such a purchase would also look attractive since Huawei has made a recent major drive into handsets as it tries to diversify away from its traditional networking equipment business. Motorola would greatly help that drive, as the brand, while somewhat tarnished in recent years, is still globally recognized, and also has well-developed international sales and distribution channels that Huawei could instantly tap. (previous post) There’s one other factor as well that is less obvious but involves a complex history between Huawei and Motorola. The 2 companies previously collaborated in the networking equipment business many years ago, and that collaboration led Huawei to sue Motorola when the latter sold its networking equipment business last year to Nokia Siemens Networks. The pair eventually resolved the lawsuit, and, in a development that appeared to be related, China’s anti-monopoly regulator approved the Motorola sale to Nokia Siemens a short time later after a long unexplained delay. (previous post) The current talks, if they’re really happening, would share a number of similarities with the Nokia Siemens case, as both involve Motorola and Huawei. Furthermore, China’s anti-monopoly regulator has also delayed approving Google’s purchase of Motorola for unexplained reasons, holding up the deal that has cleared regulatory approval in all other major markets. (previous post) It’s difficult to know what’s happening behind the scenes, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Chinese regulator’s delays are somehow related to ongoing talks by Google for a sale of the handset business to Huawei. Of course something like that would never happen in the west, where regulators would never get involved in a deal between 2 private companies. But China isn’t the west, and so really anything is possible.

Bottom line: A rumor that Huawei is in talks to buy the Motorola handset business from Google could well be true, as such a deal would make good sense for both companies.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google Tussles With China on Motorola 延迟批准摩托罗拉移动交易 中国政府对谷歌仍心存芥蒂

◙ Huawei Discovers Cellphones 华为手机要向世界前三进军

◙ Troublesome Timing As China Approves NSN-Motorola 中国监管部门批准诺基亚西门子购买摩托罗拉网络业务时机不佳

IPOs: China Auto Slashes, People’s Daily Marches Ahead IPOs:神州组车减，人民网启动

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There’s quite a bit of new listings and delistings news out there today, led by word that car rental specialist China Auto’s (NYSE: CARH) stalled IPO is finally moving ahead, although only after being cut by half as overseas investors continue to show little or no interest in new Chinese offerings. That news comes as another auto rental firm with a similar name, AutoChina (OTC: AUTCF) has announced it is being sued by the US securities regulator, following its delisting from the Nasdaq last year at the height of the confidence crisis against US-listed China stocks. Last but not least, People’s Daily Online, the web site of the official newspaper of the Communist Party, is moving ahead with its own landmark IPO, kicking off the roadshow for an offering that will undoubtedly get a warm welcome from cash-rich Chinese investors who are also party members. Let’s start with China Auto, which has said it now hopes to raise up to $158 million from its IPO, with its New York trading debut set for April 26. (Chinese article) The new fund-raising target is about half of China Auto’s original goal of raising up to $300 million, announced when it became China’s first company this year to file for a US IPO back in January. (previous post) For unexplained reasons the company’s IPO disappeared for a while, and another firm, discount online retailer Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS) became the first Chinese firm to make a New York IPO 3 weeks ago in a dismal offering that showed overseas investors are still skeptical of Chinese firms following a series of accounting scandals last year. (previous post) I predict that China Auto, which posted a net loss of 118 million yuan in the first 9 months of last year, will price its shares at the bottom of their indicated range, and it will end up raising around $130 million. Despite that weakness, I wouldn’t be surprised if some bargain hunters rushed in and helped it to post a modest raise on it first trading day. Meantime, the unrelated AutoChina, which was delisted from the Nasdaq last year, has announced that it’s being sued by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for manipulating trading in its shares to make it look like there was more investor interest in the company than there really was (company announcement) My only comment in this situation is that it’s bad when a law firm sues your company for stock manipulation, but it’s really bad when the securities regulator sues you, and this could well mark the beginning of the end for AutoChina’s shares in the US, which now trade over-the-counter. Finally, there’s the People’s Daily website, which has kicked off its roadshow for a domestic IPO to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan, or about $240 million. (English article) I fully expect this landmark offering, a sign of China’s recent drive to liberalize the media sector, to be a huge success, boosted by cash-rich party members and their associates wishing to give Beijing some face. But from an investor point of view, I wouldn’t get too excited about this company over the longer term, as profits will clearly be a distant secondary priority for an organization so closely associated with the party.

Bottom line: China Auto’s upcoming IPO will price near the bottom of its range, but its share could post a modest rise on their trading debut boosted by bargain hunters.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Auto Wins 2012 Race For 1st US IPO 神州租车抢先成首个赴美IPO的中国企业

◙ China IPO Winter Goes On as Vipshop Flops 唯品会大跌，中国IPO冬季持续

◙ 360Buy Heats Up E-Books, People’s Daily Goes to Market 京东商城高调进军电子书,人民网开启上市进程

UnionPay Stirs IPO Pot With Big Numbers 银联有望上市

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UnionPay, China’s equivalent of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA), is making headlines today with some impressive numbers showing its profit has exploded in the last few years, as it looks to highlight its growth story in the run-up to what could well become the blockbuster Chinese IPO of the year. Of course this is all just my guessing, as UnionPay, whose stakeholders include most of China’s major banks, has never given a detailed timeline for such an offering, which I would expect to come as a dual listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai as soon as the second half of this year. Such an offering would have huge appeal for investors, as it would offer a strong financial services alternative to China’s big banks, which often behave more like policy lenders than true commercial banks and, as a result are now in the midst of a crisis after sharply boost their lending under a directive from Beijing at the height of the global financial crisis. By comparison, UnionPay operates a national electronic payments settlement network similar to the Cirrus and Plus networks operated by MasterCard and Visa, which is much less vulnerable to the whims of government policy. UnionPay has also been aggressively expanding the network globally, leveraging its strong base in China to sign a steady stream of major agreements to extend its network to major global banks and other financial services firms. One of the latest moves in that direction saw the company sign a deal last August to link its network with US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), a top US player, and more recently it inked another deal with another US company called WorldPay. That aggressive expansion and the growth of the financial services industry in China is apparent in UnionPay’s bottom line, which has grown 10-fold over the last 5 years as its profit reached just over 1 billion yuan in 2011, or about $160 million. (Chinese article) According to a Chinese media report, UnionPay, which just celebrated its 10th birthday, made the profit on about 6 billion in revenue, and the company now has some 13.8 billion yuan in assets. The report says that UnionPay’s stakeholders are expressing some dissatisfaction with the level of their dividends from the company, a sign that they want to see more cash returns from this highly profitable investment as they face their own cash crunches following the 2009-2010 lending binge that was part of Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan during the global financial crisis. As a result of that binge, many of the big banks are now facing a looming surge in bad loans, and have turned to capital markets to raise more funds to shore up their balance sheets. (previous post) Against that backdrop, a multibillion-dollar IPO for UnionPay looks all but inevitable, providing the banks with a better return on this highly profitable investment, as well as some much needed cash.

Bottom line: UnionPay could make a multibillion-dollar IPO by the end of this year, capitalizing on its explosive growth and a need for cash by its major stakeholders.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China I-Banks Zero In on Piper Jaffray 中国投行聚焦美国派杰

◙ New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

◙ E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

 

55Tuan + Ganji: Group Buying Clean-Up Acclerates 窝窝团携手赶集网：团购洗牌加速

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Just a day after writing about a rumored merger between 2 mid-sized group buying sites, we’re getting even bigger news that the long-awaited consolidation in the overcrowded space is accelerating with word that 55tuan, one of the industry’s top players, is taking over operation of the group-buying business of a major player called Ganji. (Chinese article) The first tie-up that I wrote about yesterday has Gaopeng, the joint venture of US group buying giant Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN), reportedly in talks to merge with another mid-sized player called FTuan, in a deal that is probably being brokered by leading Internet firm Tencent (HKEx: 700), which is a shareholder in both companies. (previous post) This kind of consolidation, which will include both mergers and also a large number of closures, has been a long time coming, and 55tuan’s entry to the picture marks the first such M&A by one of the industry’s top 3 players. I predict we’ll see the industry’s other top 2 names, LaShou and Dianping, announce their own new tie-ups in the next 2-3 months, with LaShou likely to make the first announcement as it tries to create hype for its moribund New York IPO, which it originally filed for last year but later had to put on hold while it cleared up some accounting issues from the US securities regulator. (previous post) Let’s take a look at the latest news first, which has Ganji, a mid-tier group buying player, confirming it has formed a strategic partnership that will see it and 55tuan combine their group buying operations. Since 55tuan is clearly the bigger player and both companies are probably losing big money, I suspect this so-called “strategic agreement” will ultimately turn into an outright sale that will see 55tuan completely take over the Ganji group buying business for a modest fee of $100 million or less. 55tuan itself has said it wants to make its own overseas IPO, and reiterated as recently as last month that its listing plan is still on track for sometime later this year. (previous post) This tie-up with another mid-sized player like Ganji should help to generate some investor interest in 55tuan’s offering if and when it happens, and 55tuan is undoubtedly negotiating with other similar mid-sized players about more M&A even as it wraps up the Ganji deal. This new flurry of activity could be just the tonic the battered group buying space needs to generate some interest in this upcoming parade of planned IPOs, as investors will undoubtedly be excited at the prospect that the ultra-fierce competition that has gripped the market for the last year may soon come to an end and a handful of major companies with potential to be profitable will emerge. To that end, look for both more mergers and closures to come in the next few months, and perhaps for even some investor enthusiasm to emerge if and when 55tuan, LaShou, or another big group buying site manages to finally make a public offering.

Bottom line: The new merger between the group buying business of 55tuan and Ganji marks an acceleration of consolidation that could rekindle investor in the overheated space.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, FTuan Lead Group Buying M&A 高朋网和F团或引领中国团购业并购潮

◙ Groupon.cn Becomes 2012 First Group Buy Victim 团宝网员工被放假 中国团购业料将加速整合

◙ 55tuan Restarts IPO Race With LaShou 窝窝团和拉手网重启IPO争先赛

 

China Tech Start-Ups: Coming Home? 中国科技企业扎堆国内上市？

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There’s an interesting report out this morning noting that a growing number of Chinese tech start-ups that once looked like strong candidates for New York IPOs are opting for home listings instead, deterred by higher scrutiny and weak sentiment overseas and a much friendlier — if not volatile — environment on ChiNext, China’s 2-year-old Nasdaq-style enterprise board. In the latest move on that front, Chinese media are reporting a company called Baofeng, maker of a popular online and cellphone video player, has filed to make a public listing on the ChiNext, reversing its plans last year when it said it would make a 2012 listing overseas. (Chinese article) Frankly speaking, Baofeng does have the exact profile of a company that would have traditionally gone to either the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange to raise funds as its first choice a year ago, followed by Hong Kong as a second choice and the ChiNext as a distant third. But much has changed from a year ago, when foreign investors were still quite bullish on Chinese Internet stocks, giving them relatively rich valuations compared with peers based in more developed western markets. Such stocks have suffered a major reversal of fortune over the last year, with investors dumping their shares following a series of accounting scandals that also led to higher regulatory scrutiny and the delisting of a number of smaller players. Amid all the scandals last year, China’s securities regulator also got involved, trying to insert itself into the overseas listing process as the central government also reportedly discussed either limiting or shutting down that process completely. As far as I know, nothing specific has happened yet in terms of new Chinese government oversight, though a number of big-name western investment banks have refused to underwrite New York IPOs for some China firms over concerns about their accounting. In one of the highest profile cases, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) both reportedly resigned from an IPO last summer for leading group buying site LaShou, which went on to hire some smaller banks but has yet to make an offering. (previous post) The lone Chinese company that did make a New York IPO this year, discount retailer Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS) was an unqualified disaster, pricing well below its indicated range and falling 30 percent since its trading debut. This new report notes that Baofeng is just the latest example of a Chinese tech start-up going to ChiNext rather than overseas, following similar moves by firms like online game developers Wushen Century Network Technology and Suzhou Snail Game. It’s probably too early to say if this move to the ChiNext will be a long-term phenomenon, and I suspect these start-ups that list there will quickly discover the market’s high volatility is far less desirable than the more stable environments in New York and Hong Kong. But if the ChiNext can implement reforms to lower volatility in the market, perhaps by opening up to more foreign investors, it could seize this opportunity to quickly position itself as a strong alternative to New York and Hong Kong for China’s vibrant field of tech start-ups.

Bottom line: A recent move by tech start-ups to China’s Nasdaq-style enterprise board could become a viable IPO alternative if the board can create a more stable listing environment.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China IPO Winter Goes On as Vipshop Flops 唯品会大跌，中国IPO冬季持续

◙ Outlook Cloudy As Shanda Refiles for Literature IPO 盛大文学重启赴美IPO计划

◙ China IPO Train Hits Bump With Vancl Resignation 中国上市事件撞上凡客诚品CFO辞职

Gaopeng, FTuan Lead Group Buying M&A 高朋网和F团或引领中国团购业并购潮

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Finally there’s a rumored merger in China’s overheated group buying space that looks smart, with Groupon’s (Nasdaq: GRPN) struggling joint venture Gaopeng reportedly in talks to combine with another struggling firm called FTuan. (English article) Such mergers are sorely needed in the group buying space, where nearly everyone is losing money due to rampant competition and quality control problems are leading to growing signs that Beijing will step in to heavily regulate this unruly industry. According to the reports, citing an unnamed industry source, Gaopeng, a joint venture between Groupon and Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) is negotiating a merger with FTuan, though no deal has been reached yet. This deal is no doubt being brokered by Tencent, which invested $30 million in FTuan last year, making it a stakeholder in both Gaopeng and FTuan. (English article) I won’t even ask why Tencent decided to invest in another group buying site just months after launching Gaopeng with Groupon, in what must have looked like a clear conflict of interests at the time. But regardless of the background, this combination, if it happens, looks like a smart move for both companies and the broader group buying space where many players are struggle to stay in business as they burn through their cash piles and investors refuse to provide more money. Gapeng itself began mass layoffs just months after its launch early last year, and it’s unclear how committed Groupon is to the venture, especially as Groupon itself comes under scrutiny after saying it will restate some of its financial information following its Nasdaq IPO last year. We don’t know very much about FTuan, but previous media reports indicate the company has received around $100 million in funding to date, including the $30 million from Tencent, meaning it should be a relatively large company whose scale is comparable to Gaopeng’s and thus should make it a meaningful merger partner. Honestly speaking, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more such merger talks these last few months, but perhaps that’s not surprising in China’s entrepreneurial Internet space where many bosses might prefer to simply see their firms go out of business rather than merge with a rival. One such company that looks headed in that direction is Groupon.cn, unrelated to the US Groupon or Gaopeng, which has reportedly cut most of its staff after it used up most of its cash and investors refused to provide more. (previous post) Another company that could probably benefit from a big merger is LaShou, whose New York IPO derailed last year after regulators reportedly had questions about its accounting. My sources tell me LaShou is reportedly preparing to file again for the IPO, but it could certainly improve its chances and even create some investor excitement if it were to merge with another major Chinese player first, such as 55tuan. Look for more of these mergers to come in the months ahead, along with a steady stream of closures by cashless companies, with a few interesting players likely to emerge in a much steadier consolidated industry by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s rumored merger talks with FTuan are the first of what will be many mergers and closures for group buying sites this year, with consolidation likely to wrap up by year end.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Groupon.cn Becomes 2012 First Group Buy Victim 团宝网员工被放假 中国团购业料将加速整合

◙ Investors Shun Struggling Groupon.cn, Yaodian100 投资者规避挣扎中的团宝网和耀点100

◙ Group Buy Clean-Up Grows, E-Commerce Next 团购行业洗牌加剧，下一个是电子商务

Disney, Tencent Tie-Up to Animate China 迪斯尼、腾讯合作研发动漫

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Coming soon to movie screens in China: “Pudgy Penguin: The Movie”. That may sound like fantasy for now, but it could soon become reality following a newly announced partnership between animation giant Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700), whose ubiquitous logo featuring a pudgy cartoon penguin is practically synonymous with the web in China. (company announcement; English article) Talks of the tie-up were first leaked last week, at which time I predicted the pair would form a joint venture animation studio similar to the one announced earlier this year between another US industry leader, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and local partner Shanghai Media Group (SMG). (previous post) The structure of Disney’s partnership looks a little different from a traditional joint venture, with the 2 sides announcing they would set up an animation R&D center along with China Animation Group. The Ministry of Culture also appears to be heavily involved, meaning the venture should have good government connections to help it steer clear of China’s huge bureaucracy governing the sensitive media sector. Despite its name as an R&D center and the emphasis on developing local talent for China’s animation industry, which look mostly like a public relations exercise, this initiative closely resembles an animation studio in everything but name, with the announcement saying it will develop content for the China market. From my perspective, I really do like this particular tie-up, as it brings together a major foreign player in the form of Disney, together with a major new media player like Tencent and government connections from the Ministry of Culture and the China Animation Group. Tencent is currently making aggressive moves in the online video market, and, joking aside, its animated pudgy penguin would make a great character for a future animated movie or TV or Internet series to help promote the Tencent brand and the partnership in general. While the government’s close involvement has its positive elements, it could also be one of the new venture’s weak points, as government involvement in anything tends to add an extra layer of bureaucracy from officials who often have other agendas besides running an efficient business. But then again, no one ever said this was an official business, which could be another weakness in this partnership if and when it ever starts to earn profits. Comparing this Disney-Tencent tie-up with the DreamWorks-SMG one, I would have to say I personally like the DreamWorks one better, since SMG, as China’s second biggest media group, is also a quasi-government organization but lacks formal government ties, giving it more room to innovate. But that said, China’s animation market is certainly big enough for major joint ventures led by 2 of the world’s top players, and I would fully expect both  to see strong success both in China and also potentially through exporting their products to other Asian markets.

Bottom line: Disney’s new tie-up with Tencent looks well positioned to capitalize on China’s animation market, though close government participation remains a medium-sized risk factor.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Facebook, DreamWorks in Latest China Moves Facebook、梦工厂在华最新动向

◙ Disney-Tencent Talks: China Looking Animated 迪士尼与腾讯沟通动漫合作

◙ More Media IPOs From People’s Daily, Shopping Channel 电视购物，继人民日报后又一计划上市的媒体

Talks Swirls on Baidu’s Lekutian 百度乐酷天拟走“日系风格”

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Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) has been phenomenally successful in its core online search business, but it’s had a much harder time diversifying into other areas like social networking and e-commerce. The company called it quits in microblogging last year after a late arrival and half-hearted effort in the space (previous post), and now its latest e-commerce initiative, called Lekutian, appears to also be suffering from its own identity crisis. Lekutian is Baidu’s second major attempt at getting into the lucrative but highly competitive e-commerce space, following its failed effort with another site, called You’a, last year. With Lekutian, Baidu was hoping to avoid the same fate by setting up the business as a joint venture with Rakuten (Tokyo: 4755), one of Japan’s a leading e-commerce companies. Signs that the venture wasn’t progressing as quickly as planned first emerged late last year when domestic media reported that Baidu was halting its new investment in the business — reports that Lekutian denied. Now a new flurry of reports have again emerged on Lekutian, with some saying the venture is making a major directional shift while others are saying the site is implementing major layoffs. (English article; Chinese article) Not surprisingly, Lekutian is denying the layoff reports, though it is also talking openly about the directional shift. One report cites a company spokeswoman saying the site wants to take advantage of its Japan connections to transform itself into an e-commerce platform with a distinctly Japanese flavor, including Japanese brand products and a more Japanese look and feel. The site will also emphasize a more mall-like business model, similar to Alibaba’s Tianmao, which operates a platform on which other retailers can open online stores rather than selling merchandise directly itself. Frankly speaking, this move by Lekutian smells a bit of desperation to me, and hints that the site isn’t doing very well and could easily end up with a similar fate  to the failed You’a. At the same time, I should commend Baidu this time for realizing that it is a latecomer to the e-commerce game, and will have to develop a more niche product as it clearly can’t compete with much bigger and more established giants like Tianmaol, 360Buy and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), as well as sites operated and invested by big foreign names like Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). I do question whether the “Japanese experience” niche that Lekutian is pursuing will find a big audience in China, and suspect the site will ultimately end up as a small player that will later get quietly shut down. Not all of Baidu’s non-core investments have done so badly, with a big bet last year on an online travel site called Qunar looking like it could have good potential. (previous post) If Baidu is smart, it might be advised to invest in more existing companies like Qunar that already have a strong operating record, rather than trying to start its own new businesses, where its record is decidedly not so good.

Bottom line: A major directional shift by Baidu-invested e-commerce site Lekutian hints at troubles at the joint venture, which could end up as a niche player at best.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s Qunar: Going Places 百度投资的去哪儿网：前途无量

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

◙ Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

Overseas China Stocks on Hold, Waiting for Catalyst

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Overseas listed Chinese stocks have entered a sort of holding pattern these last few weeks, with investors neither embracing nor dumping them as the market waits for a catalyst to give some direction. A recent scathing Forbes report on security software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) has done little to dent that company’s stock, reflecting an ebb in investor skepticism that battered such shares last year. (previous post) But the flop of the first IPO this year by a Chinese firm in the US, Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS), also shows investors are far from willing the embrace these stocks again. The needed new catalyst could lead the market either way, depending on what it is. Famous short seller Muddy Waters is hoping to provide that catalyst to lead the group lower, saying it will issue a new report in the next few weeks on several Hong Kong-listed China stocks. (Chinese article) But a blockbuster IPO in either Hong Kong or the US could lead the market higher if the right company emerges to rekindle investor interest in the China growth story. These last few weeks have been full of mixed signals, both on the plus and minus side for this group of entrepreneurial firms whose shares were hammered  last year by a series of accounting scandals that undermined the entire sector’s credibility. Negative sentiment led to a halt in new overseas listings dating back to last summer, when a disastrous IPO for online video sharing site Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) sent the market into hibernation. Vipshop, a money-losing online discount retailer, tested the waters to see if sentiment had improved last month by making the first IPO by a Chinese company in the US for more than half a year. Unfortunately, it discovered investors were still highly skeptical, as its shares priced below their previously indicated range and then fell another 15 percent on their trading debut. (previous post) Its shares continued to fall after that, and now trade at about two-thirds of their IPO price. But then weeks later, Forbes issued a scathing report on Qihoo 360 questioning a number of its accounting practices and implying that its auditor, Deloitte, might resign the account later this year. That report followed a similar one late last year by a small research house named Citron, whose motives were more obvious due to its status as a short seller. Despite both reports, however, Qihoo shares have remained remarkably stable in their current range, indicating investors aren’t as willing to believe negative news as they were last year, when new short selling reports were coming out almost weekly. So, what exactly is the market waiting for? In my view, it wants a clear signal one way or the other on the China market’s growth potential and the accounting issue. Muddy Waters founder Carson Block clearly wants his firm to be a catalyst in the negative direction by saying he will soon issue a report on Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms that will presumably show more problems. At the same time, a solid IPO by a good Chinese firm could easily attract investors back to the space if a good candidate comes along. That would mean China would have to find a company that is posting both strong double-digit revenue growth and is also profitable, with the profits being especially important for investors wary of buying into money-losing companies. Such companies do exist, with e-commerce leader Alibaba being the most notable example. Unfortunately, Alibaba has shown no signs of making an IPO anytime soon, and other companies with a similar profile are far from plentiful. The handful of other companies that have filed for US IPOs so far this year, including car rental firm China Auto and online literature firm Shanda Cloudary, are both losing money despite their strong growth potential, meaning neither is likely to provide the right tonic the market needs to rekindle positive sentiment. I would bet the Muddy Waters’ report will do little to further undermine investor confidence, though a resignation by Deloitte or another major auditor from a big Chinese company could send the market back into a tailspin. In the meantime, investors will be waiting for the arrival off a white knight like Alibaba to make an IPO and breathe new excitement into the market — something also unlikely to happen until the second half of the year at earliest.

Bottom line: Shares of overseas listed Chinese stocks are likely to remain in a state of limbo until a major catalyst comes, either in the form of a new accounting scandal or a blockbuster IPO.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Qihoo: The Next Accounting Victim? 奇虎360：下一个会计丑闻受害者？

◙ China IPO Winter Goes On as Vipshop Flops 唯品会大跌，中国IPO冬季持续

◙ Confidence Crisis Easing For US China Stocks 中国概念股信任危机缓和